Spreadsheet: 5c8fbddd-c87d-43bf-b355-c6e73ae9bc8a
Sheet: Sheet1

PROJECT NAME | Cotton Sector Development Programme | Unnamed: 2 | Unnamed: 3 | Unnamed: 4 | Unnamed: 5 | Unnamed: 6 | Unnamed: 7 | Unnamed: 8
IMPACT | Impact Indicator 1 |  | Baseline 2011 | Milestone 1 - 2012 | Milestone 2 - 2013 | Milestone 3 - 2014 | Target 2015 | Assumptions
A sustainable improvement in the welfare and livelihoods of cotton growing households in the Lake Zone of Tanzania. | Use of income: Household ownership of key assets | Planned | Survey to be conducted after harvest 2011 | We will set appropriate milestones and a target once the baseline survey has been completed. |  |  |  | Assumption 1: Investment in cotton does not reduce household income through lost opportunities. Assumption 2: Gender dynamics don’t undermine investment in household welfare.
 |  | Achieved
 |  |  | Source
 |  |  | Independent baseline survey, mid term survey (2013) and final survey conducted as part of impact evaluation in 2015
 | Impact Indicator 2 |  | Baseline 2011 | Milestone 1 - 2012 | Milestone 2 - 2013 | Milestone 3 - 2014 | Target 2015
 | Food security: number of meals eaten per day in the household. | Planned | Survey to be conducted after harvest 2011 | We will set appropriate milestones and a target once the baseline survey has been completed.
 |  | Achieved
 |  |  | Source
 |  |  | Independent baseline survey, mid term survey (2013) and final survey conducted as part of impact evaluation in 2015
 | Impact Indicator 3 |  | Baseline 2011 | Milestone 1 - 2012 | Milestone 2 - 2013 | Milestone 3 - 2014 | Target 2015
 | Welfare: Children's attendance rate in primary and / or secondary school (gender disaggregated) | Planned | Survey to be conducted after harvest 2011 | We will set appropriate milestones and a target once the baseline survey has been completed.
 |  | Achieved
 |  |  | Source
 |  |  | Independent baseline survey, mid term survey (2013) and final survey conducted as part of impact evaluation in 2015
Notes | We also expect the impact evaluation to investigate gender implications and the distributional impact. These indicators are a way to assess (1) the impact an increased income from cotton has on poverty and (2) whether increased investment and return from cotton is offset by other lost opportunities.
OUTCOME | Outcome Indicator 1 |  | Baseline 2011 | Milestone 1 - 2012 | Milestone 2 - 2013 | Milestone 3 - 2014 | Target 2015 | Assumptions
An increase in income from cotton for 360,000 smallholder cotton farmers in the rural Lake Zone of Tanzania, primarily in the regions of Mwanza, Shinyanga and Mara; to a lesser extent Kagera, Kigoma, Tabora & Singida. The attribution of results to DFID is proportional to the investment, which is 48%, and would be equivalent to 172,800 farmers. | Average farmer's net annual income from cotton (£) | Planned | 93 | 101.5067328444287 | 122 | 144 | 160 | Assumption 1: Weather shocks do not influence yields substantially.                           Assumption 2: Reduction of competitiveness in contract farming does not significantly reduce farmgate price.                       Assumption 3: Improvement in quality cotton is recognised by traders relatively quickly. Assumption 4: use of inputs & extension drives significantly higher yields.                   Assumption 5: There is no substitution of price for volumes.                      Assumption 6: Incomes are driven by productivity more than the share farmers have of the value of the crop.
 |  | Achieved
 |  |  | Source
 |  |  | This indicator is calculated as follows: average yield (indicator 2) times the average farmgate price (indicator 3) times average acreage, minus inputs. Data from TCB and Technoserve will be used for monitoring purposes in all years. Milestones 2 and 4 will be triangulated with the mid term and final surveys. The source is the economic appraisal model. Notes: 1) these are on a "downside" scenario; 2) international cotton prices are in dollars; 3) Inflation - the economic appraisal has no inflation assumption so figures are in constant prices.
 | Outcome Indicator 2 |  | Baseline 2011 | Milestone 1 - 2012 | Milestone 2 - 2013 | Milestone 3 - 2014 | Target 2015
 | Average yields (kg/ha) | Planned | 2001-09 average yield = 515kg/Ha (ICAC, TCB) | 593.0482499999999 | 685.5165000000001 | 808 | 902
 |  | Achieved |  |  |  |  | Programme average
 |  |  | Source
 |  | Use data from TCB and Technoserve for monitoring purposes;  to be triangulated with survey results mid and end of project
 | Outcome Indicator 3 |  | Baseline 2011 | Milestone 1 - 2012 | Milestone 2 - 2013 | Milestone 3 - 2014 | Target 2015
 | Maintaining the farmgate price smallholders get per kilo of cotton as a proportion of the export price (FOB) | Planned | 2001-2009 average share FOB = 66% (World Bank) | ≥ 66% | ≥ 66% | ≥ 66% | ≥ 66%
 |  | Achieved
 |  |  | Source
 |  |  | Use data from TCB and Technoserve for monitoring purposes, but triangulate with survey results at mid term review survey (2013) and final survey at the end. Mid-term and final surveys will need to include interviews with ginners to triangulate export prices
 | Outcome Indicator 4 |  | Baseline 2011 | Milestone 1 - 2012 | Milestone 2 - 2013 | Milestone 3 - 2014 | Target 2015
 | Increase in the average export price of Tanzanian cotton (FOB) relative to the world price. | Planned | 2001-2006 Tz discount to world price = -2.2% (World Bank) |  | 0 |  | 0.022
 |  | Achieved
 |  |  | Source
 |  |  | TCB data on FOB pricing. These will be placed in the context of a qualitative assessment of cotton quality from international buyers.
Notes | Note: This data will be gender disaggregated.
INPUTS (£) | DFID (£) |  | Govt (£) |  | Other (£) |  | DFID SHARE (%)
 | 7320000 |  |  |  | 7936000 |  | 0.48
INPUTS (HR) | DFID (FTEs)
 | One lead advisor's time; time from other advisors as needed on monitoring and evaluation; programme management staff time.
OUTPUT 1 | Output Indicator 1.1 | 1.1 A) PESTICIDES | Baseline 2011 | Milestone 1 - 2012 | Milestone 2 - 2013 | Milestone 3 - 2014 | Target 2015 | Assumption
A restructured cotton sector using a sustainable model of contract farming, providing inputs on credit, more effective and better-motivated extension services and incentives for improved quality cotton | Number of farmers in region accessing improved agricultural inputs (pesticides and fertilisers) through contract farming (Note: this indicator reads across to the DFID Tanzania Results Framework) | Planned | 38,000 pilot farmers in contract farming | 280000 | 300000 | 320000 | 360,000 farmers | Assumption 1: ginners have enough interest in this business model to stick to it.                     Assumption 2: FBGs have adequate bargaining power for fair contracts.                      Assumption 3: Extension staff are competent / motivated.                             Assumption 4: TCB is able to police this contract.                                   Assumption 5: 360,000 farmers assumes 90% programme outreach of a total of 400,000 farmers. If the total number of farmers increases due to positive impact of the programme, an increased target might be considered
 |  | Achieved
 |  | Source
 |  | Use data from TCB and Technoserve for monitoring purposes;  to be triangulated with survey results mid and end of project
 |  | 1.1 B) FERTILISER | Baseline 2011 | Milestone 1 - 2012 | Milestone 2 - 2013 | Milestone 3 - 2014 | Target 2015
 |  | Planned | 0 | 100000 | 160000 | 240000 | 300,000 farmers
 |  | Achieved
 |  | Source
 |  | Use data from TCB and Technoserve for monitoring purposes;  to be triangulated with survey results mid and end of project
 | Output Indicator 1.2 |  | Baseline 2011 | Milestone 1 - 2012 | Milestone 2 - 2013 | Milestone 3 - 2014 | Target 2015
 | Number of farmers receiving advice from public or private extension services | Planned | 38,000 pilot farmers in contract farming | We will set appropriate milestones and a target once the baseline survey has been completed.
 |  | Achieved
 |  | Source
 |  | Technoserve reporting; to be triangulated with survey results mid and end of project
 | Output Indicator 1.3 |  | Baseline 2011 | Milestone 1 - Nov 2012 | Milestone 2 - 2013 | Milestone 3 - 2014 | Target 2015
 | Number of farmers expressing satisfaction with extension services | Planned | TBC from baseline survey | We will set appropriate milestones and a target once the baseline survey has been completed.
 |  | Achieved
 |  | Source
 |  | To be assessed with the baseline, mid term and final surveys
 | Output Indicator 1.4 |  | Baseline 2011 | Milestone 1 - Nov 2012 | Milestone 2 - 2013 | Milestone 3 - 2014 | Target 2015
 | Approximate number of farmers provided with extension services from ginners | Planned | TBC from baseline survey |  | 50000 |  | 200000
 |  | Achieved
 |  | Source
IMPACT WEIGHTING (%) |  | Survey results mid and end of project |  |  |  |  |  | RISK RATING
0.4 | Notes: These indicators will be gender disaggregated. |  |  |  |  |  |  | Medium / High
INPUTS (£) | DFID (£) |  | Govt (£) |  | Other (£) |  | DFID SHARE (%)
 | 3638000 |  |  |  | 3942000 |  | 48
INPUTS (HR) | DFID (FTEs)
 | One lead advisor's time; time from other advisors as needed on monitoring and evaluation; programme management staff time.
OUTPUT 2 | Output Indicator 2.1 |  | Baseline 2011 | Milestone 1 - 2012 | Milestone 2 - 2013 | Milestone 3 - 2014 | Target 2015 | Assumptions
Increased use of Conservation Agriculture (CA) practices | Number of farmers adopting key tenets of conservation agriculture (minimum tillage; mulching; Improved Pest Management) | Planned | 0 |  | 40000 |  | 100000 | Assumption 1: Weather shocks do not influence yields substantially.                      Assumption 2: Conservation Agriculture techniques are appropriate / needed               Assumption 3: The additional inputs (including labour) needed are available for conservation agriculture techniques
 |  | Achieved
 |  | Source
 |  | Survey results mid and end of project
 | Output Indicator 2.2 |  | Baseline 2011 | Milestone 1 - 2012 | Milestone 2 - 2013 | Milestone 3 - 2014 | Target 2015
 | Significant additional yields from conservation agriculture compared to peers only using contract farming inputs (including fertiliser) | Planned | 0 |  | 173 |  | 187
 |  | Achieved
 |  | Source
 |  | Survey results mid and end of project
 | Output Indicator 2.3 |  | Baseline 2011 | Milestone 1 - 2012 | Milestone 2 - 2013 | Milestone 3 - 2014 | Target 2015
 | Of those farmers who initially adopt conservation agriculture (in indicator 2.1), a significant proportion continue to use these techniques in the following seasons | Planned | 0 |  | 75% of Year 1 adopters are still using CA |  | 60% of Year 1 and 60% of Year 2 farmers are still using CA techniques.
 |  | Achieved
 |  | Source
 |  | Survey results mid and end of project
 | Output Indicator 2.1 |  | Baseline 2011 | Milestone 1 - 2012 | Milestone 2 - 2013 | Milestone 3 - 2014 | Target 2015
 | Action research on the impact of introducing conservation agriculture techniques on productivity and climate resilience. | Planned | 0 | Write Terms of Reference and issue the tender for the research contract; set ongoing milestones
 |  | Achieved
 |  | Source
 |  | Survey results mid and end of project
IMPACT WEIGHTING (%) | Notes: 1. 20% yield gain target is cumulative on benefits from use of fertiliser and pesticide under CF. 2. the four-year DFID commitment period is too short to capture the long-term benefits of CA effectively: both in that adoption will be a long-term process, and that many of the benefits (reduced soil erosion, increased soil fertility) are long-term ones |  |  |  |  |  |  | RISK RATING
0.2 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Medium / High
INPUTS (£) | DFID (£) |  | Govt (£) |  | Other (£) |  | DFID SHARE (%)
 | 836000 |  |  |  | 905000 |  | 48
INPUTS (HR) | DFID (FTEs)
 | One lead advisor's time; time from other advisors as needed on monitoring and evaluation; programme management staff time.
OUTPUT 3 | Output Indicator 3.1 |  | Baseline 2011 | Milestone 1 - 2012 | Milestone 2 - 2013 | Milestone 3 - 2014 | Target 2015 | Assumptions
A strengthened Tanzania Cotton Board (TCB) which has the capacity to drive future policymaking and the financial and operational resources to regulate the sector in a sustainable way. | TCB has a robust IT system in place able to monitor key sector data effectively | Planned | "PambaNet2" functionality: database of FBGs and ability to monitor contract signing | Review to identify relevant needs and set future milestones |  |  |  | Assumption 1: TCB is willing to undergo significant internal reform.                              Assumption 2: Sustainable finance can be secured to fund a higher-cost organisation. Assumption 3: Ministry of Agriculture is supportive
 |  | Achieved
 |  | Source
 |  | Programme evaluation of TCB field efficacy; end of programme strategic review of TCB
 | Output Indicator 3.2 |  | Baseline 2011 | Milestone 1 - 2012 | Milestone 2 - Nov 2013 | Milestone 3 - 2014 | Target 2015
 | TCB has sufficient trained & motivated field staff to monitor contracts and extension service provision | Planned | 11 staff |  | 14 |  | 27 staff (1 per district, 3 in Bariadi)
 |  | Achieved
 |  | Source
 |  | Programme evaluation of TCB field efficacy; end of programme strategic review of TCB
 | Output Indicator 3.3 |  | Baseline 2011 | Milestone 1 - 2012 | Milestone 2 - 2013 | Milestone 3 - 2014 | Target 2015
 | TCB senior management is increased and trained in effective policy analysis / decision-making. | Planned | Review to identify relevant needs and set future milestones
 |  | Achieved
 |  | Source
 |  | End of programme strategic review of TCB
 | Output Indicator 2.3 |  | Baseline 2011 | Milestone 1 - 2012 | Milestone 2 - 2013 | Milestone 3 - 2014 | Target 2015
 | TCB has the resources to sustain its achievements | Planned | Review to identify relevant needs and set future milestones
 |  | Achieved
 |  | Source
IMPACT WEIGHTING (%) |  | End of programme strategic review of TCB |  |  |  |  |  | RISK RATING
0.2 | Impact is qualitative rather than quantifiable: benefits come through sustainability of the sector and future robustness to external shocks |  |  |  |  |  |  | Medium / High
INPUTS (£) | DFID (£) |  | Govt (£) |  | Other (£) |  | DFID SHARE (%)
 | 1488000 |  |  |  | 1612000 |  | 48
INPUTS (HR) | DFID (FTEs)
 | One lead advisor's time; time from other advisors as needed on monitoring and evaluation; programme management staff time.
OUTPUT 4 | Output Indicator 2.1 |  | Baseline 2011 | Milestone 1 - Nov 2012 | Milestone 2 - 2013 | Milestone 3 - 2014 | Target 2015 | Assumptions
Universal access to improved seed varieties | Number of farmers accessing pure UK91 seed by 2012 planting season | Planned | 120000 | 280000 | 300000 | 320000 | 360,000 farmers | Assumption 1: Weather is sufficiently favourable to allow multiplication to proceed on-schedule.                         Assumption 2: Sustainable funding can be secured for Ukiriguru research centre
 |  | Achieved
 |  | Source
 |  | CTDF will be buying seed from Quton and distributing to ginners for them to sell on credit to farmers along with inputs
 | Output Indicator 2.2 |  | Baseline 2011 | Milestone 1 - 2012 | Milestone 2 - 2013 | Milestone 3 - 2014 | Target 2015
 | Informed policy decision taken on GM seed and necessary biosafety trials initiated if so decided. | Planned |  |  |  |  | TBC with DFID
 |  | Achieved
 |  | Source
 | Output Indicator 2.3 |  | Baseline 2011 | Milestone 1 - 2012 | Milestone 2 - 2013 | Milestone 3 - 2014 | Target 2015
 | Robust seed system in place: new conventional lines in early stage multiplication | Planned | UK08 & UKM08 at early stage multiplication |  | At least 3 new lines selected for pre-breeder trials |  | UKM08 in commercial production. At least one new line at breeder seed stage
 |  | Achieved |  |  |  |  |  | RISK RATING
IMPACT WEIGHTING (%) |  | Source |  |  |  |  |  | Low
0.15 |  | End of programme strategic review of seed system
 | Note: assessing benefit of, and achievement of, long-term seed system development will generally be based on qualitative analysis not quantitative indicators
INPUTS (£) | DFID (£) |  | Govt (£) |  | Other (£) |  | DFID SHARE (%)
 | 97000 |  |  |  | 106 |  | 48
INPUTS (HR) | DFID (FTEs)
 | One lead advisor's time; time from other advisors as needed on monitoring and evaluation; programme management staff time.
OUTPUT 5 | Output Indicator 2.1 |  | Baseline 2011 | Milestone 1 - 2012 | Milestone 2 - 2013 | Milestone 3 - 2014 | Target 2015 | Assumptions
Research and evaluation to build an understanding of the impact of the programme | Data collection for surveys completed | Planned | By October 2011 |  | 2013-10-01 00:00:00 |  | 2015-10-01 00:00:00 | Assumption 1: Companies contracted do the work competently.                 Assumption 2: Companies are able to collect the data needed from participants
 |  | Achieved
 |  | Source
 |  | [NAME] and DFID communications; records of Donor committee meetings
 | Output Indicator 2.2 |  | Baseline 2011 | Milestone 1 - 2012 | Milestone 2 - 2013 | Milestone 3 - 2014 | Target 2015
 | Dissemination of evaluation and research analysis and findings | Planned | 2012-02-01 00:00:00 |  | To be set once survey and research commissioned |  | To be set once survey and research commissioned
 |  | Achieved
IMPACT WEIGHTING (%) |  | Source |  |  |  |  |  | RISK RATING
5 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Low
INPUTS (£) | DFID (£) |  | Govt (£) |  | Other (£) |  | DFID SHARE (%)
 | 495000 |  | 0 |  | 537000 |  | 0.48
INPUTS (HR) | DFID (FTEs)
 | 50% of an advisor's time; time from other advisors as needed on monitoring and evaluation; programme management staff time.