Analysis of gender as a factor associated with custodial sentences for breach of a court order
Source: data.gov.uk (2018-05-25)

Women and the Criminal Justice System. Statistics produced by a range of agencies relating to the experience of women within the criminal justice system.

Analysis of Gender as a Factor associated with Custodial 
Sentences for Breach of a Court order 
 
Kathryn Hopkins, Miriam Light, and Jorgen Lovbakke, Ministry of Justice Analytical Services 
 
Aim 
The aim of this analysis was to investigate whether gender is associated with being 
sentenced to custody for breach of a court order, independently of offence type, 
criminal history and other factors. 
 
Approach 
This analysis used an extract from the Police National Computer (PNC) recording the 
sentence (disposal) given to all offenders convicted or cautioned for breach between 
1 January 2011 and 31 December 2011 plus their previous criminal history (38,041 
offenders)1. The analysis looks specifically at sentences given for breach of a court 
order (community order, conditional discharge, and suspended sentence order). 
Where an offender had more than one breach in 2011, only the first sentence for 
breach is included in this analysis. 
 
Logistic regression models were built using the PNC data to explore whether any 
independent associations were observed between main (index) offence type, criminal 
history, gender, age, nationality, ethnicity, and being sentenced to immediate 
custody. These models cannot account for all factors which were used in making 
sentencing decisions: for example there is no record of all aggravating and mitigating 
circumstances which were taken into account by the sentencing court, including the 
plea (guilty or not guilty), which is known to affect sentencing (MOJ, 2010). However, 
this approach shows which factors (out of all factors in the model) were 
independently associated with being sentenced to prison, and can highlight where 
further exploration may be warranted.  
 
Results 
Of the 38,041 offenders included in the PNC extract, 5,526 were female (15% of the 
cohort) and 32,515 were male (85% of the cohort). The number and type of court 
order which was breached is shown in Table 1. 
 
Table 1. Type of court order which was breached (first breach only) in England 
and Wales, 2011. 
Breach offence 
No. 
% 
Breach of a community order 22,154
58 
Breach of conditional 
discharge 
8,539 
22 
Breach of suspended 
sentence order 
7,348 
19 
Total 
38,041
100 
Totals may not add up to 100% because of rounding. 
 
                                                 
1 The sample was restricted to offenders where the offence that had been breached was the main 
(index) offence at the time of sentencing. 
 

Table 2 shows the sentences received by these offenders for the breach of a court 
order, by gender. The most frequent sentence for all offenders was ‘other’ (42%), 
followed by ‘new court order’ (37%), then ‘immediate custody’ (14%). ‘Other’ 
sentences included: order revoked; order varied; bound over; order to continue; order 
amended; no action on breach; and order extended. This suggests that the most 
common sentence for breach of a court order was a modification to the original order. 
 
Fourteen per cent of offenders (n= 5,173) received an immediate custodial sentence 
for breach of the court order. Female offenders were less likely to receive immediate 
custody following a breach of a court order (9%, n = 497) than male offenders (14%, 
n = 4,676), although this was not adjusted for the type of index offence, criminal 
history, or other factors.  
 
Fines, fully suspended sentences, and conditional and absolute discharges made up 
fewer than 10% of sentences received.  
 
Table 2. Sentences received for breaching a court order, (first breach offence 
only) in England and Wales, 2011, by gender. 
Totals may not add up to 100% because of rounding. 
Gender 
Female 
Male 
Total 
Sentence 
n 
% 
n 
% 
N 
% 
Absolute discharge 
2 
<0.1 
20 
0.1 
22 
0.1 
Conditional discharge 
60 
1.1 
193 
0.6 
253 
0.7 
Fully suspended 
189 
3.4 
1,043 
3.2 
1,232 
3.2 
Fine 
225 
4.1 
1,114 
3.4 
1,339 
3.5 
Immediate custody 
497 
9.0 
4,676 
14.4 
5,173 
13.6 
Community sentence 
2,010 
36.4 
12,107 
37.2 
14,117 
37.1 
Other 
2,543 
46.0 
13,362 
41.1 
15,905 
41.8 
Total 
5,526 
100 
32,515 
100 
38,041 
100 
 
Table 3 shows the number and percentage of offenders that received an immediate 
custodial sentence by the type of court order breached. Offenders on suspended 
sentences were the most likely to receive a custodial sentence, with over half (54%) 
of this group being sentenced to custody. Community orders were the least likely to 
receive an immediate custodial sentence (2.5% were sentenced to custody), followed 
by offenders who had breached a conditional discharge (7.5% were sentenced to 
custody).  
 
Table 3. Percentage of offenders sentenced to immediate custody for breach of 
a court order, (first breach offence only), in England and Wales, 2011 by type of 
court order breached. 
 
Breach offence 
Number 
sentenced to 
custody 
Total breaching 
court order 
% 
sentenced 
to custody  
Breach of community order 
550 
22,154 
2.5 
Breach of conditional 
discharge 
638 
8,539 
7.5 
Breach of suspended 
sentence order 
3,985 
7,348 
54.2 
Total sentenced to custody 
5,173 
38,041 
13.6 
 

The main (index) offence which resulted in the court order which was then breached 
is shown in Table 4.  
 
 
 
Table 4. Main (index) offence committed by those who received a court order 
and later breached the court order 
Index offence2 
No. 
% 
Violence against the person 
3,111 
8 
Sexual offences 
166 
<1 
Burglary 
1,936 
5 
Robbery 
258 
<1 
Theft and handling stolen 
goods 
10,484
28 
Fraud and forgery 
1,091 
3 
Criminal damage 
557 
1 
Drug offences 
3,522 
9 
Other indictable3 offences 
2,163 
6 
Indictable motoring offences 
225 
<1 
Summary offences excluding 
motoring 
12,400
33 
Summary motoring offences 
2,128 
6 
Total 
38,041
100 
Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding 
 
The most frequently recorded main (index) offence (for which a court order was 
received and later breached) was Summary offences excluding motoring4 (33%), 
followed by Theft and handling stolen goods (28%). Less than one per cent of 
offenders who had breached a court order had an index offence for either Sexual 
offences, Robbery, or Indictable motoring offences. 
 
Offenders breaching a court order were recorded as having an average (median5) of 
11 previous cautions and convictions each. Female offenders who breached a court 
order had fewer previous cautions and convictions recorded than male offenders 
(median of 10 compared with 12).  
 
Logistic regression model 
To test for independent associations with being sentenced to custody for breach of a 
court order, gender, age, ethnicity, previous criminal history, index offence type, 
breach offence type, and previous breaches were entered together into a logistic 
regression model6 with ‘sentenced to immediate custody’ (or not) as the outcome. 
Ethnicity was grouped into two categories (white: 84%7 and Black, Asian, or Minority 
Ethnic (BAME):8 16% of the sample, respectively).  
 
Results from the model are shown in Annex A. A summary follows: 
 
                                                 
2 Offence types are ordered by the standard PNC variable offence class.  
3 An indictable offence is a serious offence which can only be tried in the Crown Court (and not a 
Magistrates’ Court). 
4 A Summary Offence is a less serious offence that is heard in a Magistrates’ Court (such as minor 
criminal damage or being drunk and disorderly). 
5 Arithmetic mean 18.33 (SD 23.13), min 1.0, max 365.0.  
6 Area Under the Curve (AUC) for test sample = 0.888 (95% CI: xx-xxxx-xxxx, p < 0.01). 
7 n=31,855 
8 n=6,186 

Gender 
The odds of male offenders receiving an immediate custodial sentence for breach of 
a court order were approximately 73% higher than the odds of female offenders 
receiving the same. 
 
Age 
Each increasing year of age was independently associated with a less than 1% 
decrease in the odds of receiving an immediate custodial sentence for breach of a 
court order.  
 
Ethnicity 
The odds of BAME offenders receiving an immediate custodial sentence for breach 
of a court order were approximately 39% higher than the odds of White offenders 
receiving the same.  
 
Previous convictions and cautions 
The odds of receiving an immediate custodial sentence for breach of a court order 
increased by approximately 1% for each previous conviction or caution recorded.  
 
Main (index) offence 
The index offence type (which first resulted in a court order) was a predictor of 
receiving an immediate custodial sentence for breach of a court order, with Theft and 
handling stolen goods, Burglary, and Robbery most likely to result in a custodial 
sentence for breach.  
 
Type of court order breached  
Type of court order breached was a good predictor of custodial sentence with 
offenders who breached a suspended sentence order associated with an 
approximate 50 times higher odds of being sentenced to custody than offenders who 
breached a community order. Offenders who breached a conditional discharge were 
associated with approximately three times the odds of being sentenced to custody, 
compared with offenders who breached a community order.  
 
Previous breaches 
Previous breaches were independently associated with receiving a custodial 
sentence, particularly breaches of the same court order (where the court order was 
imposed before 2011, the offender may have breached the sentence once or more 
before the breach offence in 2011 which is included in this study): an approximate 
15% higher odds of receiving a custodial sentence was associated with each breach 
offence. Each breach of previous court orders was associated with an approximate 
2% increase in the odds of receiving a custodial sentence.  
 
 
Summary 
Male offenders were more likely to be sentenced to immediate custody for breaching 
a court order: the odds of male offenders receiving a custodial sentence was 73% 
higher than for female offenders.  
 
A number of other factors were found to be predictive of custodial sentencing for 
breach offences: age; ethnicity; criminal history; index (main) offence type; type of 
court order breached; and number of previous breaches. 
 
The differences in custodial sentencing rates may be due to factors which were not 
taken into account in the models. Sentencing outcomes may depend on a wide range 

of other factors, e.g. family responsibilities, mental health issues, and opportunities 
for diversion from custody.  
 
 

Annex A: Logistic regression model: sentenced to immediate custody for breach of a court order.  
 
Logistic regression model (sentenced to custody or not) coefficient (B) standard error (S.E.) significance level, odds ratios (OR) 9 and 95% confidence 
intervals (CI). Reference categories are labelled with (re
95% CI 
Factor 
B 
S.E. 
Sig. 
OR 
Lower 
Upper 
Female (ref) 
n/a 
n/a 
<0.01 
n/a 
n/a 
n/a 
Gender 
Male 
.547 
.061 
<0.01 
1.728 
1.533 
1.949 
Age 
Age at index offence 
-.007 
.002 
<0.01 
.993 
.990 
.997 
White (ref) 
n/a 
n/a 
<0.01 
n/a 
n/a 
n/a 
Ethnicity 
BAME 
.332 
.049 
<0.01 
1.393 
1.266 
1.534 
Previous convictions and cautions 
Number of previous convictions or cautions 
.008 
.001 
<0.01 
1.008 
1.006 
1.010 
Violence against the person (ref) 
n/a 
n/a 
<0.01 
n/a 
n/a 
n/a 
Sexual offences 
-.246 
.296 
.406 
.782 
.438 
1.397 
Burglary 
.542 
.092 
<0.01 
1.719 
1.436 
2.058 
Robbery 
.488 
.212 
.022 
1.628 
1.074 
2.468 
Theft and handling stolen goods 
.668 
.070 
<0.01 
1.951 
1.701 
2.239 
Fraud and forgery 
.250 
.129 
.052 
1.284 
.998 
1.653 
Criminal damage 
.195 
.183 
.289 
1.215 
.848 
1.741 
Drug offences 
-.238 
.089 
.007 
.788 
.662 
.938 
Other indictable offences 
-.073 
.096 
.447 
.929 
.769 
1.123 
Indictable motoring offences 
-.080 
.191 
.674 
.923 
.634 
1.343 
Summary offences excluding motoring 
.000 
.069 
.995 
1.000 
.874 
1.145 
Index offence (which resulted in a 
court order, which was later 
breached) 
Summary motoring offences 
.121 
.098 
.214 
1.129 
.932 
1.367 
Type of breach offence 
Breach of a community order (ref) 
n/a 
n/a 
<0.01 
n/a 
n/a 
n/a 
 
Breach of a conditional discharge 
1.149 
.062 
<0.01 
3.154 
2.791 
3.564 
 
Breach of a suspended sentence order 
3.881 
.052 
<0.01 
48.473 
43.804 
53.640 
Previous breaches 
Number of breaches since index offence 
.139 
.028 
<0.01 
1.149 
1.087 
1.215 
 
Number of breaches before the index offence 
.021 
.006 
<0.01 
1.021 
1.010 
1.033 
(Constant) 
n/a 
-4.543 
.107 
<0.01 
.011 
n/a 
n/a 
                                                 
9 The odds ratio can be interpreted as the independent association of each factor in the model with the outcome (sentenced to immediate custody), whilst controlling for all other factors in the model. A 
significance level of less than 0.05 shows whether the factor was significantly associated with immediate custody (compared with the absence of the factor, or with the reference category). An odds ratio 
greater than one (1.0), for those factors which were significantly associated with immediate custody, demonstrates an independent association with increased odds of immediate custody, and an odds ratio 
less than one demonstrates an independent association with decreased odds of immediate custody.