The National Minimum Wage in 2021
Source: data.gov.uk (2022-05-23)

National  Minimum Wage in 2021. New rates of the National Living Wage (NLW) and National Minimum Wage (NMW) come into force on 1 April 2021. These follow recommendations made in the autumn by the Low Pay Commission (LPC). To mark the uprating, this report looks ahead at the implications of the incoming rates and the LPC’s remit for the year ahead.

The National Minimum Wage 
in 2021
Uprating Report April 2021
Low Pay Commission

Introduction
Introduction
New rates of the National Living Wage (NLW) and National 
Minimum Wage (NMW) come into force on 1 April 2021, 
based on recommendations made by the Low Pay 
Commission (LPC) in October 2020. This report looks ahead at 
what the new rates will mean, and the LPC’s work for 2021 
and the path up to 2024.
Over the last year, economic conditions in the UK have been 
extremely turbulent. Covid-19 led to a sharp economic shock, 
with severe impacts on many sectors and workers. In 
response, the Government introduced an extensive package 
of support measures, including the Coronavirus Job Retention 
Scheme (CJRS). The evidence so far suggests that these 
measures have helped to minimise job losses, but there 
remains a high degree of uncertainty as to what will happen in 
the coming months: the path of the pandemic, the pace of 
economic recovery, and how businesses will respond as 
Government support is withdrawn. 
Our recommendations reflect this uncertain and challenging 
context, while still making progress towards the target of the 
NLW reaching two-thirds of median pay by 2024. 
The Low Pay Commission
The LPC is an independent public body that advises the 
Government each year on the NMW and NLW. The LPC is a 
social partnership body, made up of nine Commissioners: 
three from employer backgrounds, three from worker 
representative backgrounds, and three independent 
Commissioners, including the Chair. Every year since its first 
report in 1998, Commissioners have unanimously agreed the 
LPC’s recommendations to the Government.
2
National Minimum Wage rates effective from 1 April 2021
Contact us
www.lowpay.gov.uk
@lpcminimumwage
xx-xxxx-xxxx
LPC blog
£8.91 
£8.36 
£6.56 
£4.62 
£4.30 
£8.36 
National Living Wage
21-22 Year Old Rate
18-20 Year Old Rate
16-17 Year Old Rate
Apprentice Rate
Accommodation Offset

The National Living Wage
The minimum wage before the National Living Wage
The National Minimum Wage (NMW) was introduced in April 
1999. The LPC was established with a remit to make 
recommendations to raise the minimum wage as high as 
possible each year without causing unemployment. At this 
time, the main rate applied to workers aged 22 and over and 
there was a separate rate for those aged 18-21. A 16-17 Year 
Old Rate was introduced in 2004, and in 2010 the Apprentice 
Rate was introduced and 21 year olds became eligible for the 
adult rate of the NMW.
History of the National Living Wage
The NLW was originally announced in the July 2015 Budget, 
as a new statutory minimum wage for workers aged 25 and 
over, set at £7.20 per hour from April 2016. The Government 
asked the LPC to recommend increases in the NLW to reach 
a target of 60 per cent of median earnings by 2020.
Increases towards this target were subject to the condition of 
sustained economic growth, but there was a tolerance for 
some job loss. We used the Government’s fiscal rule 
definition for normal economic conditions – GDP growth of 
above 1 per cent – as the criterion for sustained economic 
growth.
Over the 2015-2019 period, employment reached record 
levels, and there was no evidence of job losses resulting from 
the NLW. We were therefore able to follow the path to the 
target, and in our October 2019 recommendations to the 
Government, we recommended that the NLW increase to 
£8.72 from April 2020 in order to reach the 60 per cent target. 
An ambition of ending low pay
In 2020, the Government set a new target for the NLW, to 
reach two-thirds of median earnings for 2024. In addition, the 
age threshold should be lowered to 21 by 2024, starting with 
a reduction to 23 this year. This follows recommendations we 
made in our review of the NMW youth rates.
In setting our remit, the Government made clear that we 
should take economic conditions into account and, if the 
evidence supported it, could recommend that the 
Government reviewed its target or time-frame. This 
mechanism was referred to as an ‘emergency brake’.
For the other rates, we were asked to recommend rates as 
high as possible without damaging the employment 
prospects of each group.
A challenging labour market context
The pandemic has had an extraordinary impact on the UK 
economy and the labour market. The ambition for the NLW to 
reach two-thirds of median earnings was set before the onset 
of Covid-19 and the resulting economic shock.
The subsequent uncertainty was a large factor in the rates we 
recommended for 2021. The pandemic and the policy 
interventions made in response to it also affected our ability 
to evaluate the impact of recent increases in the rates. All of 
these things continue to have a major impact on the outlook 
for low-paid workers going forwards.
3

Millions of workers benefit from increases 
to the NLW and NMW rates
Since its introduction, the number of people paid the NLW 
has remained steady
Every year since 2016, around 6.5 per cent of workers aged 
25 and over have been covered by the NLW (earning up to 5p 
above the rate). 
At the start of the period, we had anticipated that the number 
of workers covered by the rate would grow as the NLW was 
increased. Instead, the rising NLW has not led to an increase 
in the number of workers paid the minimum. There have 
been spillover effects as employers have increased wages by 
more than is needed to meet the NLW. 
It is difficult to measure how many people were paid the 
NLW during lockdown measures
As a result of measures to control the pandemic, we do not 
have such a good understanding of how many people are 
likely to have been affected by increases in the rates. This is 
largely because we do not have a good estimate of the hourly 
rate of pay of workers who were furloughed on the 
Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS). In the main data 
source that we use to estimate pay, the Annual Survey of 
Hours and Earnings (ASHE), we can see the total pay 
received and typical hours worked by furloughed workers, but 
their actual hours worked at the time of the survey in April 
2020 were zero. Including furloughed workers in our analysis 
biases pay downwards, as many of them received less than 
full pay on the furlough scheme, while excluding them biases 
pay upwards, as they are more likely to be low-paid workers. 
We are therefore unable to accurately estimate measures 
such as bite and coverage in last year’s data. The Labour 
Force Survey (LFS) can give more context on workers and 
their characteristics but is a less reliable source of information 
on pay. 
4
Coverage of NLW using imputed pay in LFS, UK, 2016-2020
Coverage of NLW by characteristic, UK, 2020 Q1
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2016Q4
2017Q1
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
2018Q4
2019Q1
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
2020Q2
2020Q3
2020Q4
Number of workers covered by NLW 
(millions)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Female
Male
No qualifications
With qualifications
Ethnic minority
White
Disabled
Not disabled
Non-UK born
UK-born
Sex
Quals
Ethn.
Dis. Nation.
Per cent of jobs
Covered by NLW
Likely to be affected by incoming NLW

Low-paid workers were most likely to be 
furloughed and lose pay as a result
Business closures and the furloughing of workers led to an 
unprecedented collapse in the number of hours worked 
across the economy, which persisted into the summer. This 
fall in hours of up to 20 per cent far exceeded that seen in the 
financial crisis. The fall affected all sectors of the economy, 
but the recovery has been slower in low-paying occupations. 
When we made our recommendations we had data up to the 
end of August, at which point it appeared that hours worked 
had started to recover almost to normal levels.
Thanks to the ONS’s work in matching their datasets to CJRS 
records, we are able to identify the majority of individuals in 
ASHE who were furloughed. As discussed on page 4, it is not 
possible to accurately estimate furloughed workers’ hourly pay. 
However, matching to the previous year’s data, we can see that 
workers who received lower pay in 2019 were more likely to be 
furloughed in 2020, and more likely to be on partial pay if they 
were furloughed (i.e. their employer was less likely to top their 
pay up). At the bottom of the pay distribution, nearly half of all 
workers were furloughed, and half of these saw a fall in pay.
5
Mean number of hours worked in reference week, by 
occupation type, workers aged 16+, UK, 2020
Furlough status in 2020, by 2019 pay, employees aged 25 
and over, UK, April 2020
£0
£10
£20
£30
£40
£50
£60
£70
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
2019 hourly pay
Percent of each percentile
2019 hourly pay percentile
Furloughed on partial pay
Furloughed on full pay
Proportion of furloughed who are on partial pay
2019 Pay (RHS)
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1 3 5 7 9 1113 2 4 6 8 1012 1 3 5 7 9 1113 2 4 6 8 1012
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Mean hours worked
Low-paying occupations
Non low-paying occupations

This had implications for the NLW
6
We have had to recommend rates that best balance the 
desire to increase pay with the need to protect 
employment, in the context of the Covid-19 economic 
shock. Employers are in a weaker position to respond to 
NLW increases without reducing employment, 
particularly in the low-paying sectors that have been 
most affected and have been most likely to furlough 
staff.
Furthermore, there are problems with measuring what 
happened to hourly pay through the crisis. We rely on 
ASHE to plot our position on the path to 2024, but this 
year, because of the effects of the crisis and CJRS on 
the data, we cannot tell where £8.72 was on the NLW 
path to 66.7 per cent of median pay with our usual 
precision. This complicates any attempt to work out the 
next step on the path to 2024.
Our approach this year was therefore to recommend 
rates that minimise any ‘significant risk’ to employment 
prospects, as per our remit. This led us to recommend a 
2021 NLW rate of £8.91. This is lower than our best 
estimate of the on-course rate of £9.06, but importantly 
it is modestly higher than the increase in prices. The 
NLW has continued to increase faster than prices and 
average wages since its introduction, meaning that low-
paid workers’ living standards should be protected. 
For a fuller account of the rationale for our rate 
recommendations, see our letter of advice to the 
Government and our 2020 report.
NLW in comparison to other measures, 2015-2021
£7.20
£7.58
£7.67
£8.91
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
2015
April
2016
April
2017
April
2018
April
2019
April
2020
April
2021
April
Nominal NMW/NLW value (£)
CPI adjusted
RPI adjusted
AWE adjusted
Nominal NMW/NLW rates

Young people’s greater vulnerability led to 
lower upratings
7
This has been a particularly challenging year for young 
people. They are more likely to work in the sectors that 
have been hit hardest by lockdown measures, including 
hospitality and non-essential retail. More than half of 
workers aged 16-18 work in these affected sectors.
Partly as a result of this, young people were more likely to 
have been furloughed. Around 18 per cent of all furloughed 
employments were for workers aged under 25, despite this 
age group making up just 11 per cent of all jobs. Many of 
those furloughed experienced changes to their pay.
While the CJRS has enabled businesses to keep workers 
on their payrolls, these workers may still be at greater risk 
of unemployment. 
We are particularly concerned about unemployment among 
young people because they are highly susceptible to 
scarring. This means that if a young person spends time 
out of work, they are likely to face poorer labour market 
outcomes in the longer term, lasting for several years 
beyond any unemployment spell. 
By the end of August, unemployment rates had already 
started to rise to levels not seen since 2015 for all of the 
age groups eligible for the youth rates. 
As a result of these factors, we recommended relatively 
cautious increases in the youth rates for 2021.
0
20
40
60
80
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Proportion of workers (per cent)
Age
Arts
Childcare
Domestic services
Hospitality
Personal care
Retail
Transport
Travel
Proportion furloughed
Proportion of young workers in sectors most affected by 
lockdown measures, UK, 2020
Change in unemployment rate since March 2020, by age, UK
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Mar
2020
Apr
2020
May
2020
Jun
2020
Jul
2020
Aug
2020
Sep
2020
Oct
2020
Nov
2020
Dec
2020
Change in unemployment rate since 
start of first lockdown (ppt)
16-17
18-20
21-22
23-24
25+

But the evidence supported lowering the 
age threshold for the NLW
8
Proportion of 21-22 year olds paid within minimum wage 
structure, UK, 2017-2020
As of 1 April, the age threshold for the NLW will be lowered 
from 25 to 23 as a first step to 21. This follows a 
recommendation that we made in our youth review in 2019 
that all workers over the age of 21 should be eligible for the 
highest rate. The recommendation was based on several 
arguments, which we will also use to assess when to lower 
the age threshold to 21. 
Use of the 21-24 Year Old Rate amongst that age group is 
low. Before the pandemic, a relatively small group of 150,000 
workers aged 23-24 were paid below the NLW and would be 
affected by the change in age threshold. The chart on the 
right shows the proportion of 21-22 year olds who are paid at 
or below the NMW. This group has grown since the start of 
the pandemic but this may be a temporary effect; we will 
continue to monitor this to judge how many workers might be 
affected as the threshold is lowered further. 
23-24 year olds are similar to 25 year olds on a range of 
measures. 23-24 year olds are very similar to older workers in 
the type of work they do, as well as in how they have been 
affected by the pandemic. This is less true for 21-22 year 
olds, but we will monitor how this changes over the next 
couple of years. 
Stakeholders agree that the NLW threshold should be 
lowered
Stakeholders have been supportive of the change in age 
threshold and generally see it as fairer. In 2020, some 
employer representatives were more cautious, with some 
calling for a delay. We will continue to talk to stakeholders to 
understand the impact of the move to 23 and seek their 
views on lowering the threshold to 21.
Research evidence supports the change. The last time the age 
threshold of the adult rate was lowered in 2010, econometric 
analysis found no significant negative employment effect, 
despite it taking place in the aftermath of the financial crisis. 
We will commission research over the next two years to 
understand the impact of the change in age threshold to 23 
before making a recommendation on lowering the threshold 
further to 21. 
The final argument was that record high employment and a 
tightening labour market should offer protections to young 
workers. Although this argument has not stood the test of the 
pandemic, we judged that on balance, the majority of the 
evidence continues to support the change in age threshold. 
We will closely monitor changes to the labour market position 
of 21-24 year olds as the economy starts to recover.
0
5
10
15
20
25
2017Q3
2017Q4
2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
2018Q4
2019Q1
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
2020Q2
2020Q3
2020Q4
Proportion of workers (per cent)
Covered
Paid between rate and NLW
Paid at NLW

There remains a high degree of 
uncertainty in the labour market…
When we made our recommendations in October 2020, the 
CJRS was about to be removed and replaced with the less 
generous Job Support Scheme. Since then, the CJRS has 
been extended to September 2021. Cases of Covid-19 started 
rising, and a second national lockdown in England was 
enacted in November with similar lockdowns in the other 
nations of the UK. A more virulent strain of Covid-19 started 
spreading rapidly throughout the country in December, leading 
to a third national lockdown in the first months of 2021. 
During these lockdowns, many businesses had to close or 
limit their trading, and increasing numbers of workers were 
furloughed. There was also a large spike in the number of 
people reporting that they had been made redundant, far in 
excess of what we saw at the start of lockdown measures in 
March. Redundancies started to fall as the Government 
extended the CJRS, but remain well above historic levels. 
Forecasters expect an increase in unemployment in the 
coming months, though limited by the extension of the 
furlough scheme.
Since we made our recommendations there have also been 
some extremely positive developments. Several vaccines 
have been shown to be safe and effective and there has been 
substantial progress in deploying them, giving confidence that 
recovery is on the horizon. The Government has set out a 
roadmap to ease lockdown restrictions as the vaccination 
programme develops and cases fall.
However, there remains a high degree of uncertainty in the 
labour market. We do not yet know how businesses and 
consumers will respond as lockdown measures are eased and 
support measures are gradually withdrawn, and what impact 
this will have on the economy.
9
Number of people made redundant within the previous 3 
months, UK, 2020
Number of employments furloughed, UK, March 2020-Feb 2021
0
10
20
30
40
0
2
4
6
8
10
2020 Mar
2020 Apr
2020 May
2020 Jun
2020 Jul
2020 Aug
2020 Sep
2020 Oct
2020 Nov
2020 Dec
2021 Jan
2021 Feb
BICS proprtion furloughed (percent)
CJRS Employments furloughed 
(millions)
Full furlough
Partial furlough
Unknown
BICS (unweighted) RHS
BICS (weighted) RHS
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
100
200
300
400
500
2020 Mar
2020 Apr
2020 May
2020 Jun
2020 Jul
2020 Aug
2020 Sep
2020 Oct
2020 Nov
2020 Dec
Proportion who are employed (per cent)
Number of redundancies (thousands)
Number of people made redundant
Proportion of those who are employed (RHS)

…and there is large variation in the health 
of businesses between sectors
The extent to which businesses have been affected by 
lockdown measures varies between sectors. The chart on the 
right shows the change in the number of payrolled employees 
since the start of the pandemic by sector. Of the 693,000 fall 
in employees the largest reductions have been in hospitality 
and retail, which are among the sectors that have been 
hardest hit by lockdown measures. Meanwhile, there has 
been employment growth in healthcare and social care over 
the same period.
This has implications for the LPC as we consider the rates of 
the minimum wage this year and going forwards. Firstly, some 
sectors may be less able to afford increases in the minimum 
wage than others, whereas others may be seeing pay 
pressures. It will be more important than ever to have a good 
sectoral understanding of how businesses are doing.
Secondly, compositional changes in the type of work that 
people are doing could have an impact on median pay, as they 
have done in the past. For example, if job loss is concentrated 
in low-paying sectors, this will increase median pay, which is 
the basis for the NLW target. We will need to consider 
whether the changes in pay that we see are driven by 
temporary changes in the structure of the labour market.
Finally, some of the sectors that are most affected have a key 
role as the first step on the ladder for entry to the labour 
market, particularly for young people and those who have 
spent time out of work. We will monitor the impact of this, 
and whether the groups most affected by the minimum wage 
are able to find work, or if there is a risk of persistent 
unemployment. 
10
Change in number of employees on PAYE RTI, UK, February 
2020 – February 2021
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
Health and social work
Public administration and defence
Construction
Education
Finance and insurance
Transportation and storage
Administrative and support services
Information and communication
Professional scientific and technical
Other service activities
Manufacturing
Arts entertainment and recreation
Wholesale and retail
Accommodation and food services
Change in employees Feb 2020 - Feb 2021 (thousands)

The government’s remit to the LPC in 2021
The National Living Wage
On 3 March, the Government published the LPC’s remit for 
2020, which you can find here. This asks us to monitor and 
evaluate the National Living Wage and recommend the rate 
which should apply from April 2022 in order to reach two-
thirds of median earnings by 2024, taking economic 
conditions into account. In line with recommendations we 
made to the Government, the NLW will apply to workers 
aged 21 and over by 2024. 
An ‘emergency brake’
Our remit asks us to closely monitor changes in the labour 
market and if appropriate, advise the Government to review 
the 2024 target or timeframe. This emergency brake 
means that the LPC has the ability to recommend 
reconsidering the target if the evidence suggests it would 
be damaging for the employment prospects of the lowest-
paid workers.
This is particularly important in the context of the Covid-19 
pandemic, which clearly presents a challenging set of 
circumstances for workers and employers. The rates that 
we recommended for 2021 were necessarily lower than 
we might have hoped for a year ago; we will need further 
evidence to see if we can catch up within the timeframe.
Other National Minimum Wage rates
We have also been asked to monitor and evaluate the 
levels of each of the National Minimum Wage rates and 
make recommendations to maximise the rates without 
damaging employment prospects. 
Understanding low-paid workers
The Government has asked us to gather evidence on 
groups of low paid workers with protected characteristics. 
Groups more likely to be affected by changes to the 
minimum wage rates include BAME, younger, older, 
disabled and women workers.
Additionally, we have been asked to gather evidence on the 
differing impact of increases to the minimum wage rates 
across the United Kingdom, to improve understanding of 
the role of low-paid work around the country and support 
the Government’s levelling up agenda. 
Live-in domestic workers
This year, we have also been asked to gather evidence on 
the application of the ‘live-in domestic worker exemption’ 
to minimum wage entitlement. We will seek to understand 
how this exemption is used and its impact on the labour 
market. 
11

The path of the NLW to 2024
For the 2021 NLW, the evidence led us to recommend a rate 
that was below our best estimate of the ‘on-course’ rate. 
However, we did not recommend a change to the 
Government’s target of reaching two-thirds of median 
earnings by 2024. We will undertake a fuller review of the 
path ahead in our 2021 advice, due in October this year.
The course of the pandemic and economic recovery over 
2021 and beyond are challenging to predict. So while we have 
produced an indicative NLW path here, it is subject to more 
uncertainty than usual and is likely to change.  In addition to 
uncertainty about the future there is also the risk of 
compositional effects on pay.  In short, if there is large scale 
job loss concentrated among low-paying jobs this will push 
average pay up and therefore the NLW target with it. 
This combination of uncertainty and compositional effects 
make establishing the level of the on-course rate difficult.  
Nevertheless, our best current estimate for the NLW in 2022 
is £9.42, a 5.7 per cent increase.  The shaded area around the 
main trajectory shows how the path would be affected if pay 
growth differed by 0.5 percentage points from the current 
forecasts. This could move the path up or down by more than 
20 pence by 2024. 
Because the path is subject to change, we will publish an 
update over the summer.  The forecasts available then will be 
more informed by the impact of the vaccine rollout, the 
impact of the new UK-EU trading relationship and 
Government policy decisions on lockdown and support for the 
economy. In October this year we will provide advice on next 
year’s rates, taking into account the path estimates and 
economic evidence we have at the time.
12
Age
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
25+
£8.21
£8.72
23+
£8.91
£9.42
£9.96
21+
£9.86
£10.33
Indicative NLW path forecasts
Indicative NLW path forecasts
£10.33
£8.91
£9.42
£8.72
8.00
8.50
9.00
9.50
10.00
10.50
11.00
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
NLW rate (£)
21+
23+
25+

Our evidence base
Data sources
Although we can be hopeful that we are on the cusp of 
economic recovery, this year still presents challenges for 
the quality of our data. ASHE, our main source of 
information on pay takes place in April when the furlough 
scheme will still be in place. In 2020, lack of data on the 
hourly pay of furloughed workers led to uncertainty of 
around 80 pence in the median. Further, sectoral 
differences in employment losses may lead to 
compositional changes in the labour market, driving up 
median pay. And any changes in pay and employment are 
likely to be affected by the substantial impact of the 
pandemic and EU exit, making it difficult to isolate the 
impact of this year’s increases in the minimum wage rates.
Econometric evidence
Because of challenges with the data in 2020, and likely in 
2021 as well, it will be difficult to perform robust 
econometric analysis of the impact of the minimum wage. 
However, we will commission policy evaluations from 
leading researchers to help us understand the context of 
minimum wage workers and firms. We will also continue to 
expand our own use of standardised evaluation tools, using 
new methods and evidence sources to assess the policy’s 
impacts, in line with the recommendations of Professor 
Arin Dube’s review of international evidence. We will 
publish our first papers using econometric methods later 
this year.
13
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
£0.00
£0.20
£0.40
£0.60
£0.80
£1.00
£1.20
£1.40
£1.60
£1.80
£2.00
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Difference in hourly pay in per cent
Difference in hourly pay in pounds
Hourly pay percentile
Pounds
Per cent
Difference between hourly pay including and excluding 
furloughed workers who suffered a loss of pay, UK, 2020

We need evidence from workers and firms
Stakeholder engagement
This year it is particularly important that we hear from 
minimum wage workers and businesses. We want to build 
our understanding of how they have been affected by the 
pandemic, as well as the increases in the minimum wage 
rates. We would like to hear about the impact on the 
household incomes of minimum wage workers, and how 
easy it is for people to find jobs and move between 
sectors. For businesses, it will be just as important for us 
to understand if they have taken on large amounts of debt, 
improved their productivity or changed their pay structures 
in response to Covid-19, and to what extent minimum 
wage rates play a role in their decision-making.
Normally, we would conduct a programme of regional visits 
in which we seek evidence from workers and businesses 
around the country. This will take place again this year, but 
to start with we will carry out these meetings virtually. We 
will review this approach as lockdown measures are eased.
No matter where you are in the UK, please contact us at 
xxx@xxx.xx if you wish to take part in this year’s 
engagement.
Written consultation
An important part of our conversation with workers and 
firms is through our written consultation (currently open 
and available here). We would like to hear from you!
14
LPC visits, 2021
•
Edinburgh & Dunfermline 
(12-13 May)
•
Northern Ireland (24-25 
March)
•
Manchester & Lancashire 
(4-5 August)
•
Sheffield (2-3 June)
•
Cardiff (30 June -1 July)
•
London (14-15 April)

Forthcoming LPC publications
Future LPC publications and consultations
• We will publish a report on non-compliance and 
enforcement next month.
• We will publish a report on our internal econometric 
analysis.
• Our consultation on the 2022 NLW and NMW rates is 
currently open and can be found on our website.
• Our programme of regional visits around the country will 
take place via virtual meetings while Covid-19 restrictions 
are in place.
• We will publish an updated path for the NLW in the 
summer.
• In the autumn we will make our recommendations to the 
Government on the 2022 minimum wage rates.
The data for the charts in this report are published on our website.
Page 4: LPC estimates using LFS, income weights, quarterly, not seasonally 
adjusted, UK, 2016-2020; LPC estimates using LFS, income weights, based on real 
value of NLW in 2020 terms using CPI, UK, 2020 Q1
Page 5: LPC estimates using LFS, population weights, weekly data, UK, 2020 Q1 –
Q4; LPC estimates using ASHE 2019 and ASHE 2020, population weights
Page 6: LPC estimates using CPI, RPI, AWE and OBR forecasts for the UK economy, 
March 2021
Page 7: LPC estimates using LFS Q1, population weights and HMRC statistics on 
use of CJRS, August 2020; LPC estimates using LFS microdata, based on week of 
interview, population weights, quarterly rolling average, UK
Page 8: LPC estimates using LFS, income weights, quarterly, not seasonally 
adjusted, UK, 2017-2020
Page 9: HMRC CJRS statistics and estimates on use of furlough scheme from BICS; 
LPC analysis of LFS redundancies, population weights, weekly data, not seasonally 
adjusted, UK, 2020
Page 10: HMRC – Pay As You Earn Real Time Information
Page 12: LPC estimates using ASHE 2019, population weights, UK; AWE total pay 
(KAB9), seasonally adjusted, GB; and wage growth forecasts from HM Treasury 
Forecasts for the UK economy (March 2021), Bank of England Monetary Policy 
Report (February 2021) and OBR Economic & Fiscal Outlook (March 2021)
Page 13: LPC estimates using ASHE, population weights, including and excluding 
furloughed workers with a loss of pay, UK, 2020
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