TEMPro and NTEM: Data release notes and FAQ, Version 7.1
Source: data.gov.uk (2024-07-04)

National Trip End Model (NTEM). The [freely available TEMPro software is required to view these datasets](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/tempro-downloads).

The National Trip End Model (NTEM) model forecasts the growth in trip origin-destinations (or productions-attractions) up to 2051 for use in transport modelling. The forecasts take into account national projections of:

- population
- employment
- housing
- car ownership
- trip rates

NTEM forecasts are subject to uncertainty, especially when disaggregated to local zones or travel modes. Before using the NTEM forecasts, the following DfT guidance should be reviewed: 

- [TAG Unit M-4 Forecasting and Uncertainty](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/webtag-tag-unit-m4-forecasting-and-uncertainty-november-2014) 
- [NTEM Planning Guidance](https://assets.dft.gov.uk/tempro/version7.2/NTEM72-documentation.zip) that provides an overview of the forecasts and the input data used (available in the NTEM Documentation Download below). 

Further technical details are available in the [NTEM specification](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/webtag-si-ntem-sub-models-july-2016).

Queries regarding the NTEM forecasts should be sent to [Department for Transport](mailto:tempro@dft.gov.uk). To register to receive updates, email [TEMProMailingList@atkinsglobal.com](TEMProMailingList@atkinsglobal.com) to be added to the TEMPro distribution list. 

[GIS boundary files for the NTEM zone system are available](https://data.gov.uk/dataset/visual-boundaries-for-the-national-trip-end-model-ntem).

July 2016 
TEMPro & NTEM data release notes 
and frequently asked questions 
Additional guidance 
December 2016 
Moving Britain Ahead 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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3 
Contents 
1. Release notes 
4 
TEMPro is the software program, NTEM is the data set 
4 
NTEM 7.0 dataset – summary of changes from version 6.2 
4 
Status of NTEM 7.0 and NTEM 7.1 release 
5 
TEMPro v7.1 Software Release 
7 
Migrating to the NTEM 7.0 and 7.1 data sets 
7 
2. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) 
8 
Data and methodology 
8 
Software and installation 
10 
 
 

 
4 
1. Release notes 
TEMPro is the software program, NTEM is the data set 
As of January 2010, it has been clarified across guidance that TEMPro is the name 
of the software that presents the NTEM data set. 
NTEM 7.0 dataset – summary of changes from version 6.2 
Version 7.0 of the NTEM dataset has been updated with: 
• 2011 Census 
• ONS 2012-based population projections 
• Dwellings projections - updated using local authority plans and annual monitoring 
reports 
• Employment projections - updated using UKCES 2012-based employment 
projections (“Working Futures”) project 
• The distribution of employment and workers by region in the base year 2011 (and 
hence in all years) - updated using workforce jobs and the labour force survey 
• A comprehensive update and re-estimation of the National Car Ownership Model 
• Re-estimated trip rates based on National Travel Survey 
The dataset is described in detail in the NTEM7.0 planning data guidance note Users 
should note that: 
• NTEM datasets are long-term forecasts - they represent the Department’s best 
estimate of the long-term response to demographic and economic trends. Users 
should consult Department’s Transport Analysis Guidance to understand and 
ascertain the appropriate use of NTEM data for their particular application, and to 
account for the uncertainty which is inherent in demand forecasting. See TAG 
Unit M4 - Forecasting and Uncertainty. 
• NTEM7.0 forecasts are run from 2011 base at 5 year intervals to 2051 – as with 
previous versions, for intermediate years, the forecasts are interpolated linearly. 
• Based on NTS evidence NTEM7.0 includes time-varying trip rates between 2011 
and 2016. Trip rates are assumed to be constant from 2016 onwards. 
• In NTEM7.0 the bottom level of NTEM geography (NTEM zones) has been 
changed from 2,496 TEMPro zones to 7,700 zones based primarily on MSOA. In 
England and Wales these are based directly on 2011 Census MSOA (7,201 
zones). In Scotland there are 499 zones, which are aggregations of Scottish Data 
Zones (DZ) that approximate average MSOA population size. 

 
5 
• Just like in earlier versions, information about planned dwellings is derived from 
LA plans and monitoring reports and based on targets/plans for the whole control 
area (Local Authority). The amount of control area growth is distributed to MSOAs 
based on past trends (Expected Growth Factors). Past trends may not be 
reflective of the future plans for a specific zone and appropriate aggregations or 
adjustments to individual zones may be required in individual applications.  
• Non-car figures need to be treated with caution because they assume constant 
travel costs and the estimates are based on NTS data which is dominated by car 
trips. These figures are intended for use in conjunction with a forecasting 
model capable of mode choice and might represent a good starting point 
but users need to satisfy themselves that they are fit for purpose in 
individual applications. 
To access NTEM7.0 dataset users should use the latest version of the TEMPro 
software (TEMPro 7.0 or 7.1). Downloads of the historic datasets (NTEM6.2) 
continue to be provided and can be accessed with the use of the same version of the 
TEMPro software (TEMPro 7.0 or 7.1). 
TEMPro users who use NTM growth factors to adjust TEMPro factors, should use the 
most up-to-date available version of Road Traffic Forecasts. At the time of release of 
NTEM7.0 it was RTF15 (Scenario 1). Users should note that newer versions of Road 
Traffic Forecasts may become available after the release of NTEM7.0. NTM road 
traffic forecasts are aggregate strategic forecasts and should not replace an 
appropriately specified traffic forecasting model for business case development. 
Status of NTEM 7.0 and NTEM 7.1 release 
On 28th July 2016 a new version of TEMPro and NTEM dataset (version 7.0) was 
published and replaced version 6.2. 
Since the release, some localised issues have been identified with the NTEM7.0 
dataset, which will necessitate a revision of selected inputs (employment and 
dwellings for a subset of local authorities). Further details and a list of areas known to 
be materially affected were provided in the communication circulated to TEMPro 
users on 14th November and are also published on TEMPro website. A programme of 
work is currently ongoing to implement the necessary revisions. 
NTEM7.0 dataset is a long anticipated update, based on the latest forecasting 
evidence base. It is the Department’s view that until an addendum is released, 
NTEM7.0 continues to provide the most up-to-date dataset for use in transport 
business cases and a robust basis for developing forecasts in the vast majority of 
cases. NTEM users are advised to take care when applying the dataset in the 
affected area. Promoters of schemes in the affected areas should contact the 
Department if they have queries or concerns regarding the NTEM7.0 dataset and 
require further advice in relation to their business cases. Addendum to the NTEM7.0 
dataset is expected to be available at the end of February 2017.  
An interim update of the dataset for Wales is available and has been published on 
the website as NTEM 7.1 Interim for Wales. The interim dataset has been produced 
in conjunction with the Welsh Government and incorporates more up to date and 
robust evidence about housing growth within Wales (described below). As the Welsh 
Government intends to use the NTEM 7.1 Interim for Wales dataset for forecasting 
and appraisal it has been made available on the TEMPro website. The updated 

 
6 
assumptions about housing growth contained within the interim dataset will be 
carried forward into the addendum to NTEMv7 which we intend to publish in 
February. The addendum will also incorporate further refinements to the Welsh 
dataset which were not possible to include in the interim update. 
NTEM 7.1 Interim for Wales includes: 
• 
minor corrections of the employment inputs;   
• 
inclusion of updates in assumptions, provided by the Welsh Government, 
concerning the number of dwellings in 15 Local Authorities within Wales (sources 
listed below); and  
• 
data on actual dwellings completions within Wales. 
 
Authority 
Document 
Date 
Blaenau Gwent 
Local Development Plan up to 2021 
 Nov 2012 
Bridgend 
Bridgend Local Development Plan 
 Sept 2013 
Caerphilly 
Caerphilly County Borough Local Development Plan up 
to 2021 
 Nov 2010 
Cardiff 
Cardiff Local Development Plan 2006 – 2026 
 Jan 2016 
Carmarthenshire 
Carmarthenshire Local Development Plan 
 Dec 2014 
Merthyr Tydfil 
Merthyr Tydfil Local Development Plan 2006 - 2021 
 May 2011 
Monmouthshire 
Monmouthshire County Council Adopted Local 
Development Plan 2011-2021 
 Feb 2014 
Neath Port Talbot 
Neath Port Talbot County Borough Council Local 
Development Plan 2011-2026 
 Jan 2016 
Newport 
Newport Local Development Plan 2011 - 2026 
 Jan 2015 
Pembrokeshire 
Pembrokeshire County Council Local Development 
Plan - Planning Pembrokeshire’s Future (up to 2021) 
 Feb 2013 
Powys 
Powys Local Development Plan 2011 - 2026 
Written Statement Deposit Draft June 2015 
(Document 34) 
June 2015* 
Rhondda Cynon Taff 
Rhondda Cynon Taff Local Development Plan up to 
2021 
 March 2011 
Swansea 
Swansea Local Development Plan 2010-2025: Deposit 
Plan 
July 2016* 
Torfaen 
Torfaen County Borough Council Local Development 
Plan (to 2021) 
 Dec 2013 
The Vale of Glamorgan 
The Vale of Glamorgan Local Development Plan 2011-
2026 
Nov 2013* 
  * deposit draft 
 
NTEM 7.1 Interim for Wales has been published alongside NTEM 7.0 for Wales. 
NTEM7.0 for Wales continues to be available for download alongside the NTEM7.0 
datasets for England and Scotland for completeness. Local authorities in Wales 
should - in the first instance - contact the Welsh Government with any queries about 
which version of NTEM to use. 
 

 
7 
TEMPro v7.1 Software Release 
We have now released version 7.1 of the TEMPro software. This supersedes the 
previous version of the software (v6.2) and allows NTEM7.0 and NTEM7.1 Interim 
datasets to be used. Version 7.1 differs from the recently released (July 2016) 
version 7.0 in that it additionally allows NTEM7.1 to be processed. There are no other 
significant differences between TEMPro 7.1 and 7.0. 
TEMPro v7.0 and 7.1 software have a number of revisions and new features 
compared with the previous TEMPro v6.2 software: 
• The software has been adjusted to allow the presentation of the NTEM7.X 
datasets (with 7,700 zones) as well as NTEM6.2 (with 2,496 zones) 
• Users can provide custom zone names to replace the default ONS MSOA names  
• The support of Windows XP installation has been withdrawn. 
A user guide titled ‘Getting Started with TEMPro (Version 7.0)’ has also been made 
available. 
 
Migrating to the NTEM 7.0 and 7.1 data sets 
It is important for the Department to keep the NTEM data sets sufficiently current to 
allow robust and relevant transport modelling and appraisal and to promote 
effectively informed decision-making. 
Users should be aware of the Department’s advice on updating extant modelling 
work in the Proportionate Update Process document in WebTAG. In principle, 
analytical work should make use of the latest NTEM data set for forthcoming 
decisions. However, there may be occasions where it would not be proportionate to 
update analysis that is based on the previous NTEM data set (i.e. it would take 
significant resource and delay transitioning to the new data set and it is judged that 
there will not be a significant impact on the analysis). For this reason, both new-
release and previous sets are available for download on this web site. 
It is recommended that analysis using NTEM 6.2 data should be subject to 
proportionate sensitivity tests to determine whether the impact of migrating to NTEM 
7.0 or 7.1 is significant relative to the decision the analysis is informing. This will 
involve evidence-based judgment. 

 
8 
2. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) 
Data and methodology 
What should I do if my base year pre-dates the NTEM7 base year of 2011? 
The most up-to-date evidence should be used wherever possible. Models with the 
base year older than five years should ideally be updated at the next possible 
opportunity. If an update of the model is not immediately possible or proportionate 
then users should then use NTEM6.2 growth rates between their base year 2011 and 
NTEM7 growth rates from 2011 onwards. 
 
Does the more granular zoning system in NTEM 7 mean certain developments 
are included in the dataset? 
No, planning data is still provided at the local authority level and these households 
are distributed to the NTEM zones according to expected growth factors derived from 
historic trends. For more information see the NTEM planning data guidance note and 
the question below. 
 
I wish to use NTEM data to assess the impact of a development without the use 
of a formal transport model. Is my development included in the data set?  
Nowhere in the derivation of the NTEM planning data is there an explicit assumption 
that particular developments do or do not go ahead.  
With detailed local development information, the practitioner may adjust the 
distribution of households or jobs at the zone level. This adjustment may be achieved 
by using the 'Alternative planning assumptions' functionality within the TEMPro 
software. For more information on this refer to TAG Unit M4 – Forecasting and 
Uncertainty - Section 7.3 The Reference Forecast.  
Please note that for modelling purposes, TEMPro figures must be used as control 
totals over a larger area, usually the district level. This implies that if the jobs or 
households in a zone are adjusted, equal and opposite adjustments must be made in 
other zones (say, in the local authority) to match the total from the NTEM data set.  
For more details about the use of NTEM data for different applications and the 
standard approach to take into account uncertainty in transport forecasting (including 
developments), please see TAG Unit M4 – Forecasting and Uncertainty. 
The source of the development assumptions within the NTEM data set are stated in 
the NTEM planning data guidance note, annex F. 
 

 
9 
Why are there multiple versions of data on this site?  
The NTEM 7.0 dataset is the currently adopted dataset to be used in current 
transport models and appraisals. The previous dataset NTEM 6.2, is still available to 
enable analysts to continue work on projects that started before the new data was 
released and to review historic models. 
 
From where do I get national traffic growth forecasts?  
National traffic growth forecasts from the National Transport Model (NTM) are 
published by the Department on the DfT web site. For convenience TEMPro 7.1 
contains a database with 2015 road traffic forecast. 
 
How does TEMPro treat goods vehicle traffic?  
The NTEM data set includes travel by vehicles owned by households and hence 
does not include freight vehicles. For forecasts of freight traffic - available by region, 
road type and vehicle class - refer to the results of the National Transport Model, 
noting the answer to the previous question.  
 
Do NTEM datasets include a high or low growth scenario?  
No - the current version of NTEM provides central growth forecasts only. All 
forecasting has uncertainty. See TAG Unit M4 – Forecasting and Uncertainty, for 
further details of how uncertainty should be reported.  
 
Please confirm the meanings of Production and Attraction as found in the 
current TEMPro software? 
Trip Production is defined as the home end of a Home Based trip or as the origin of a 
Non Home Based trip. Trip Attraction is defined as the non home end of a Home 
Based trip or the destination end of a Non Home Based trip. Further details can be 
found in TAG Supplementary Guidance – NTEM Sub-Models. 
 
How do P/As and O/Ds differ with respect to time periods?  
A production and attraction for a home-based trip takes the time period of the from-
home trip. This includes the out-trip and the return-trip. For example, a person 
travelling to work in the AM peak period and returning home in the PM peak will 
produce two AM peak productions at home and two AM peak attractions at work. 
Origins and destinations take their time period from the time of departure from the 
origin.  
 
Why don't NTEM population figures match national figures?  
The population figures in NTEM datasets give the population resident in households. 
This excludes residents of communal establishments. The population data in 
TEMPro is mid-year, hence comparisons with the Census will show a systematic 
difference.  

 
10 
In the forecast years, population may vary slightly from projected national figures. 
This is a result of the household allocation process where population from trend-
based sources are allocated to policy-based dwellings. Where the population trends 
are significantly higher than the planned dwelling supply, this implies unacceptable 
changes to household sizes and structures. In this case, NTEM populations may be 
resultantly lower than the trend-based source. This is also relevant for household 
projections, which are also from trend-based sources.  
Software and installation  
Opening NTEM Regional Datasets 
The datasets have not been designed to be accessed directly by the end-user. The 
datasets are MS Access databases, the data structure is fairly complicated and the 
files contain huge amounts of data in a fairly user unfriendly format. However, there 
is a very user friendly way of querying the data and accessing the data you require, 
which is to use the TEMPro application, which can be downloaded from this site. The 
download contains an installation file which needs to be run on your machine to 
install the software. The "Getting Started" document (also available to be downloaded 
from this site) explains exactly how to install the software. 
The NTEM datasets have not been password protected for technical reasons; 
however, users are still advised to use them via the TEMPro software. 
 
When I run the software I get a message which says "You do not have any 
datasets in your data folder"? 
The most likely problem is that the datasets have not been saved in the DATA sub-
folder of the application folder and therefore the software cannot find them. When 
installing the TEMPro system under 32-Bit versions of Windows the default DATA 
sub-folder is C:\Program Files\TEMPRO7\DATA though users are allowed to change 
this during the installation process. You should ensure that your regional datasets are 
copied to the DATA sub-folder. For 64-Bit versions of Windows the default DATA 
sub-folder is C:\Program Files (x86)\TEMPRO7\DATA.  
Further details of how to install the TEMPro software and Data are given in the 
'Getting Started with TEMPRO (Version 7.0)' document. 
 
How do I install TEMPRO on a server?  
TEMPro was designed and implemented as an application to be installed and run on 
a local machine. Therefore, we do not recommend that users install the TEMPro 
software on a server as TEMPro has not been designed to allow multi-user 
operation. However, datasets can be installed on a server and accessed by multiple 
users.  
Further details of how to install the TEMPro software and Data are given in the 
'Getting Started with TEMPRO (Version 7.0)' document. 
 

 
11 
Under what versions of Windows does TEMPro run?  
TEMPro Version 7.0 runs under Microsoft Windows 10, Windows 8.1, Windows 8, 
Windows 7 or Windows Vista (both 32-bit and 64-bit versions). Earlier versions of 
TEMPro can be installed on earlier versions of Windows. 
 
What versions of NTEM datasets can TEMPro 7.0 analyse? 
Currently, TEMPro Version 7 can analyse version 6.2 or version 7.0 NTEM regional 
datasets.  If earlier versions of the datasets are included in the TEMPro 7.0 DATA 
subfolder, then an error message is produced when opening the application. An 
example is shown below. 
 
 
On opening TEMPro Version 7.0 I receive an error message specifying that I 
have an additional Access database in the TEMPro DATA subfolder. What 
should I do? 
The following error message may be encountered. 
 
Check your DATA subfolder to ensure that the only Access databases (.mdb files) it 
contains are: 
• NTEM regional datasets (versions 6.2 or 7.0) 
• dbTEMPROsavedSelections.mdb 
• NTMTrafficForecastsDB.mdb. 
Delete/move any other .mdb files that are found there and try running the TEMPro 
7.0 application again. 
 
Why do I receive an out-of-memory message when running TEMPro for a large 
selection of geographical areas? 
For example: 

 
12 
 
The increase in the number of zones available in the NTEM 7.0 regional datasets 
means that older PCs with < 3GB of memory will not be capable of processing large 
numbers of geographical areas for all scenarios.  For example, to process ‘Trip Ends 
by Car Availability’ for ‘All Purposes Individually’ over all zones of all NTEM regional 
datasets requires a PC with ~3GB of RAM (assuming no other applications are using 
memory on the PC). 
 
Can I install TEMPro 7.0 alongside an earlier version of TEMPro? 
TEMPro Version 7.0 can be installed alongside an earlier version of TEMPro (for 
example, if you wish to maintain access to NTEM datasets earlier than version 6.2).  
You should ensure that the two versions are accessing different DATA subfolders 
(this will always be the case if the default installation settings have been selected). 
 
I am having problems installing TEMPro?  
To install any software, including TEMPro, on a Windows Vista (or Windows  
XP) machine you have to have administrator rights. If your organisation has an IT 
department then we recommend that they install the software for you, ensuring that 
ALL users have rights to use the software. If you do not have the support of an IT 
department and are unsure how to gain administrator rights then please contact the 
TEMPro support team.  
 
I am having problems getting the download to work?  
If you experience problems downloading the software and/or datasets then check the 
policy on length of connection as your machine may timeout before the end of the 
download. It is possible to increase the connection time settings, although you may 
need your IT department to make this change. If this does not appear to be the 
problem then you should check your firewall settings and if necessary update them. If 
you continue to experience problems then please contact the TEMPro support team.  
 
Can I get data in Excel format?  
Yes TEMPro results can be exported to Excel. Alternatively, you can copy the results 
data from the grid on the results screen and then paste that data into another 
application such as Excel. For more information on this functionality please see the 
TEMPro help file.  
Are there any differences between installing TEMPro on 64-Bit and 32-bit 
versions of Windows? 

 
13 
TEMPro is a 32-Bit application (that has been made Large Address Aware to 
increase memory usage up to 4GB) but can still be installed on 64-Bit versions of 
Windows. However, because it is installed as a 32-Bit application, the installation 
folder is C:\Program Files (x86)\TEMPRO7.  If the application is installed on a 32-bit 
version of Windows, the installation folder is C:\Program Files\TEMPRO7. 
Please ensure that you copy your NTEM regional datasets to the correct DATA 
subfolder prior to using TEMPro.  The self-executing zip file that is used to provide 
the data allows the location of the DATA subfolder to be specified during the 
extraction process. 
Further details of how to install the TEMPro software and Data are given in the 
'Getting Started with TEMPRO (Version 7.0)' document. 
 
Why do I get the message "ERROR READING SETUP INITIALIZATION FILE" 
when I try to run the TEMPro installation package?  
The message is an indicator that the installation package has been corrupted during 
the download process (the file is normally much smaller than it should be). Please re-
download the installation package and try to install TEMPro again.  
 
Accessing Technical Support 
For further support, please contact Atkins Ltd / Hartley McMaster Ltd. 
 
TEMPro Software Support, Atkins Limited, Woodcote Grove, Ashley Road, Epsom, 
Surrey, KT18 5BW.  Tel. xx-xxxx-xxxx. 
E-mail: xxx@xxx.xx