Annex A – Interim Re-conviction Figures for Peterborough Payment by Results Pilots
Source: data.gov.uk (2018-05-25)

Proven Re-offending statistics. Key statistics on proven reoffending in England and Wales. It gives proven reoffending figures for offenders who were released from custody, received a non-custodial conviction at court, or received a caution or reprimand.

Official Statistics
Annex A  
Interim re-conviction figures for Peterborough 
Payment by Results pilot 
 
Ministry of Justice 
Statistics Bulletin 
28 January 2016 

 
 
 
2 
Annex A 
 
Interim re-conviction figures for Peterborough  
Payment by Results pilot 
 
 
Background 
The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) published “Breaking the Cycle: Effective Punishment, 
Rehabilitation and Sentencing of Offenders” in December 2010. This Green Paper 
included a commitment for the MoJ to commission a series of initial ‘payment by results’ 
(PbR) pilot projects to test the principle that PbR can result in service improvements by 
delivering better outcomes for the public at the same or less cost. 
 
The MoJ currently has a prison based PbR pilot operating in HMP Peterborough, which 
began on 9 September 2010. There was also a PbR pilot operating in HMP Doncaster, 
which started in October 2011 and closed at the end of 2014.  
 
The final results for the Peterborough pilot will be based on a 12 month re-conviction 
measure which counts offences committed in the 12 months following release from 
prison, and resulting in conviction at court either in those 12 months or in a further 6 
month period (allowing time for cases to progress through the courts).  
 
Given the high level of public interest in relation to the reforms set out in the MoJ 
publication “Transforming Rehabilitation – a strategy for reform”, the MoJ began 
publishing Peterborough pilot interim re-conviction figures for cohort 1 from June 2013 
and interim figures for cohort 2 from July 2014. These were the earliest opportunities 
that MoJ statisticians judged the number of offenders being reported on to be large 
enough to provide robust interim figures. 
 
The cohort 1 results of the Peterborough pilot were published on 7 August 20141. As a 
consequence of the necessary time lag for measuring re-convictions, final results for 
cohort 2 will be available in summer 2016. 
 
For the Doncaster pilot, results for cohort 1 were published in August 20141 and results 
for cohort 2 were published in July 20152. 
 
These figures are updated in this dedicated annex to each edition of the MoJ’s quarterly 
Proven Re-offending Statistics bulletin. 
 
 
Methodology 
Offenders enter the PbR pilots after their first eligible release from the prison within the 
cohort period. Cohort 2 contains all eligible offenders released between 2 July 2012 and 
1 July 2014.  
 
The prison pilots use a 12 month re-conviction measure which differs from the National 
Statistics proven re-offending measure. The key difference is that re-convictions only 
count offences for which the offender was convicted at court, whereas the National 
                                               
1 www.gov.uk/government/statistics/final-results-for-cohorts-1-payment-by-results-prison-pilots 
2 www.gov.uk/government/statistics/payment-by-results-pilot-cohort-2-hmp-doncaster-results 

 
 
 
3 
Statistics proven re-offending measure also includes out of court disposals (cautions). 
However, the time periods used for both measures are the same – offences committed 
within 12 months of release from prison and convicted at court (or cautioned for the 
proven re-offending measure) either in those 12 months, or in a further six month period 
(allowing time for cases to progress through the courts). 
 
The Peterborough pilot includes offenders released from custodial sentences of less 
than 12 months only. 
 
Additionally, there are a number of other differences between the pilot and the National 
Statistics proven re-offending measure in terms of which offenders are counted within 
the cohort. These differences were set out in the PbR pilot contract; see Table A1 in the 
Appendix for more details. 
 
Final (outcome) re-conviction measures for the prison pilot 
The outcome measure is the frequency of re-conviction events3 (based on offences 
committed within 12 months of release from prison and convicted at court within those 
12 months or a further 6 month period). This is often referred to as a frequency 
measure. Success of each cohort will be determined by comparison with a control 
group (of comparable offenders from across the country). 
 
Interim re-conviction measures for the Peterborough pilot 
In publishing these interim figures, MoJ aims to give the most useful figures for as much 
of each cohort as possible at a given point in time. 
 
Initially, this is done by providing figures based on re-conviction periods half the length 
of those used for the final results, for an increasing proportion of each cohort. These 
cover offences committed in the six months following release from prison, and resulting 
in conviction at court either in those six months or in a further three month period 
(allowing time for cases to progress through the courts). 
 
Subsequently, when the data become available, we provide figures based on the full re-
conviction period used for the final results; covering offences committed in the 12 
months following release from prison, and resulting in conviction at court either in those 
12 months or in a further six month period, again for an increasing proportion of the 
cohort. 
 
These figures are updated on a quarterly basis. See Table A3 in the Appendix for a 
timeline of the publication of these figures. 
 
The interim figures for Peterborough in this bulletin correspond to 12 month re-
conviction figures. They cover offenders released in the first 21 months of the cohort 2 
period. 
 
 
Interpreting interim re-conviction figures 
The interim re-conviction figures presented here give an indication of progress for the 
second cohort of the Peterborough pilot to date. However, care should be taken when 
interpreting these interim figures for the following reasons: 
 
                                               
3 If an offender is re-convicted of multiple offences on one sentencing occasion, this counts as one re-
conviction event. 

 
 
 
4 
 
Success for the pilot cohort will be determined based on comparison with a 
control group of comparable offenders from across the country, which is not 
available for these interim figures. 
 
 
The current interim measure is only based on offenders from the first 21 months 
(88%) of the complete cohort period of 24 months. 
 
Users should therefore be aware that the figures presented provide our best 
assessment of change at this point in time. The final results will be available in summer 
2016. 
 
 
Interim figures 
The cohort 2 figures presented in this statistical bulletin are 12 month re-conviction 
figures for offenders released from Peterborough in the first 21 months of the cohort 2 
period. 
 
Success of the Peterborough pilot will be measured against a control group of similar 
offenders released from other prisons, with the target met if the frequency of re-
conviction events is 10.0% lower for the Peterborough cohort 2 than for the control 
group, or 7.5% lower across Peterborough cohort 1 and cohort 2 combined. It is not 
possible to replicate that comparison for these interim figures. Instead, in order to 
provide some context for the Peterborough figures, we have provided equivalent 
national figures for the same periods. The national figures are based on other local4 
prisons which exclude Peterborough and Doncaster5. 
 
Table 1 and Figure 1: Peterborough (and national equivalent) interim 12 
month re-conviction figures for offenders released in the first 21 months of 
the cohort 2 period 
 
Discharge 
period
Cohort 
size
Re-conviction 
rate
Frequency of
re-conviction 
events per 100 
offenders
Cohort 
size
Re-conviction 
rate
Frequency of
re-conviction 
events per 100 
offenders
July07-Mar09
1,143
55.6%
153
36,076
56.3%
143
July08-Mar10
1,106
53.9%
156
37,244
54.8%
142
July09-Mar11
963
52.2%
150
35,213
55.0%
151
July10-Mar12
893
52.7%
143
33,969
55.3%
156
July11-Mar13
922
50.7%
136
33,612
54.3%
157
July12-Mar14
902
51.7%
151
31,352
55.2%
161
Peterborough
National local prisons
 
 
                                               
4 Since HMP Peterborough is a local prison, the underlying characteristics of the prison and its offenders 
will be more similar to those of local prisons. See Annex B in the Definitions and Measurement document 
for a definition of local prison. 
5 Since a PbR pilot was also ongoing in HMP Doncaster during the cohort period. 

 
 
 
5 
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
July07-Mar09
July08-Mar10
July09-Mar11
July10-Mar12
July11-Mar13
July12-Mar14
Frequency of re-conviction events per 100 offenders
Peterborough
National
 
 
Table 1 shows that for offenders released from Peterborough between 2 July 2012 and 
31 March 2014 (the first 21 months of the cohort 2 period), there were an average of 
151 re-conviction events per 100 offenders. This shows a decrease of 3.1%6 compared 
to an average of 156 re-conviction events per 100 offenders released from 
Peterborough between July 2008 and March 20107. 
 
Nationally, the equivalent figures show a rise of 13.4%8 from 142 to 161 re-conviction 
events per 100 offenders. 
 
These interim figures show our best assessment of change at this point in time (see the 
section Interpreting interim re-conviction figures). The final results will be available in 
summer 2016. 
                                               
6 Due to a rounding effect 151 ÷ 156 = 3.1% drop. 
7 July 2008 to March 2010 is used for comparison as it is the most recent period that does not overlap with 
the pilot cohort 1 period. 
8 Due to a rounding effect 161 ÷ 142 = 13.4% rise. 

 
 
 
6 
Appendix to Annex A 
 
Table A1: Comparison of Peterborough PbR re-conviction and National 
Statistics proven re-offending measures 
 
 
National Statistics measure of 
proven re-offending (for any 
prison) 
Peterborough PbR prison pilot re-
conviction measures 
 
The cohort 
All offenders who were 
discharged from custody, over a 
12 month period, regardless of 
sentence length. Excludes those 
in prison for breach 
Male offenders aged 18 or over 
discharged from Peterborough prison 
between 9 September 2010 and 1 
July 2012 (cohort 1) or 2 July 2012 
and 1 July 2014 (cohort 2), after 
serving sentences of less than 12 
months. 
Differences from National Statistics: 
 
Excludes those who serve the 
whole of their custodial sentence 
on remand 
 
Excludes foreign national 
offenders recorded as having 
been deported on release from 
prison 
 
Includes those in prison for 
breach 
 
The period to 
measure re-
convictions/re-
offending 
12 months for offences to occur 
and a further 6 months for 
offences to be proven (through 
conviction at court or a caution) 
12 months for offences to occur and a 
further 6 months for offences to be re-
convicted 
 
Note: excludes cautions 
 
The headline 
measure 
Proportion of offenders who 
commit one or more proven re-
offences 
Frequency of re-conviction events 
What counts 
Offences committed in the 12 
months following release from 
prison, and proven by conviction 
at court or a caution either in 
those 12 months or in a further 6 
months 
Any re-conviction event (sentencing 
occasion) relating to offences 
committed in the 12 months following 
release from prison, and resulting in 
conviction at court either in those 12 
months or in a further 6 months 
 
Note: excludes cautions 
 

 
 
 
7 
OGRS score data 
Re-offending is related to the characteristics of offenders, for example offenders with a 
large number of previous convictions are more likely to re-offend than those with fewer 
previous convictions, and changes in re-conviction rates over time can be related to 
changes in the mix of offenders being worked with rather than a real change in the level 
of their re-offending. 
 
The Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS)9 is a predictor of re-offending based 
on age, gender and criminal history, which are risk factors known to be associated with 
the likelihood of re-offending. OGRS scores range from 0 to 1, with a lower score 
representing a lower likelihood of re-offending. The scores can be used to compare the 
relative likelihood of re-offending either over time or between different groups of 
offenders, with a higher/lower rate meaning a group of offenders who are more/less 
likely to re-offend. For example, if Offender Group A have an average OGRS score of 
0.44, and Offender Group B have an average OGRS score of 0.58, this means that 
Offender Group A are less likely to re-offend. 
 
Table A2 shows the average OGRS scores for each of the offender groups that are 
measured in table 1 above. These include offenders released from Peterborough prison 
as well as those for the equivalent national groups of offenders. The figures are 
approximate because a small portion of offenders from each group are not included due 
to some data being unavailable. 
 
Table A2: Peterborough (and national equivalent) OGRS scores for 
offenders released in the first 21 months of the cohort 2 period 
 
Discharge period
Peterborough
National
July07-Mar09
0.51
0.53
July08-Mar10
0.51
0.53
July09-Mar11
0.49
0.53
July10-Mar12
0.49
0.53
July11-Mar13
0.50
0.53
July12-Mar14
0.50
0.53
Average OGRS score
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                               
9 For more details on OGRS see Ministry of Justice Research Summary 7/09 OGRS 3: the revised 
Offender Group Reconviction Scale at: 
www.webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20110201125714/http:/www.justice.gov.uk/publications/offender-
assessment-system.htm 

 
 
 
8 
Table A3: Timeline for publication of re-conviction figures 
 
Prison 
April 2016 
Peterborough 
12 month re-conviction 
figures for the entire 
cohort 2 (a 24 month 
cohort) 
 
Table A4: Other information on the pilot 
 
Prison 
Start date of 
pilot 
Number of 
eligible 
participants for 
Cohort 1  
Number of 
eligible 
participants to 
date for Cohort 2 
Peterborough 
Social Impact 
Bond (SIB)  
9 September 
2010 
1,03410 
99711 
                                               
10 Eligible participants from Cohort 1 from 9 September 2010 to 1 July 2012. 
11 Eligible participants from Cohort 2 from 2 July 2012 to 1 July 2014. This is the entire Peterborough pilot 
cohort 2 period, but the figure is provisional at this stage and subject to revision. 

 
 
 
9 
Contact points 
Press enquiries should be directed to the Ministry of Justice press office: 
 
Tel: xx-xxxx-xxxx 
 
Email: xxx@xxx.xx 
 
Other enquiries about these statistics should be directed to: 
 
Nick Mavron 
Ministry of Justice 
Justice Statistics Analytical Services 
7th Floor 
102 Petty France 
London 
SW1H 9AJ 
Tel: xx-xxxx-xxxx 
 
General enquiries about the statistical work of the Ministry of Justice can be e-mailed 
to: xxx@xxx.xx 
 
General information about the official statistics system of the United Kingdom is 
available from www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/about-the-authority/uk-statistical-system. 
 
Alternative formats are available on request from 
xxx@xxx.xx. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
© Crown copyright 2015 
 
This publication is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence v3.0 
except where otherwise stated. To view this licence, visit 
nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3 or write to the 
Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU, or email: 
xxx@xxx.xx.