Annex A: Interim reconviction figures for Peterborough Payment by Results pilots
Source: data.gov.uk (2018-05-25)

Proven Re-offending statistics. Key statistics on proven reoffending in England and Wales. It gives proven reoffending figures for offenders who were released from custody, received a non-custodial conviction at court, or received a caution or reprimand.

Official Statistics
Annex A  
 
Interim reconviction figures for Peterborough 
Payment by Results pilot 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ministry of Justice 
Statistics Bulletin 
 
 
 
28 April 2016 

Annex A 
 
Interim reconviction figures for Peterborough  
Payment by Results pilot 
 
 
Background 
The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) published “Breaking the Cycle: Effective Punishment, 
Rehabilitation and Sentencing of Offenders” in December 2010. This Green Paper 
included a commitment for the MoJ to commission a series of initial ‘payment by results’ 
(PbR) pilot projects to test the principle that PbR can result in service improvements by 
delivering better outcomes for the public at the same or less cost. 
 
The MoJ carried out two prison based PbR pilots in HMP Doncaster and HMP 
Peterborough. 
 
The PbR pilot operating in HMP Peterborough began on 9 September 2010 and results 
for cohort 1 of this pilot were determined by an independent assessor and published on 
7 August 20141. The final set of results for cohort 2 will also be determined by an 
independent assessor and will be published in the summer of 2016. A methodology 
report for assessing the impact of the pilot will be published alongside the final results 
for cohort 2. 
 
The PbR pilot that operated in HMP Doncaster started in October 2011 and closed at 
the end of 2014. Results for cohort 1 were published in August 20141 and results for 
cohort 2 were published in July 20152. 
 
This report presents the final set of interim results for the pilot in HMP Peterborough. 
The results are based on a 12 month reconviction measure which counts offences 
committed in the 12 months following release from prison, and resulting in conviction at 
court either in those 12 months or in a further six month period (allowing time for cases 
to progress through the courts). 
 
 
Methodology 
Offenders entered the PbR pilot after their first eligible release from Peterborough 
prison within the cohort period. Cohort 2 contains all eligible offenders released 
between 2 July 2012 and 1 July 2014. 
 
The prison pilots used a 12 month reconviction measure which differs from the National 
Statistics proven reoffending measure. The key difference is that reconvictions only 
count offences for which the offender was convicted at court, whereas the National 
Statistics proven reoffending measure also includes out of court disposals (cautions). 
The time periods, however, used for both measures are the same – offences committed 
within 12 months of release from prison and convicted at court (or cautioned for the 
proven reoffending measure) either in those 12 months, or in a further six month period 
(allowing time for cases to progress through the courts). 
 
                                                
1 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/final-results-for-cohorts-1-payment-by-results-prison-pilots 
2 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/payment-by-results-pilot-cohort-2-hmp-doncaster-results 
 
 
 
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The Peterborough pilot included male offenders aged 18 or over released from 
custodial sentences of less than 12 months only. 
 
There are a number of other differences between the pilot and the National Statistics 
proven reoffending measure in terms of which offenders are counted within the cohort. 
These differences are set out in Table A1 of the Appendix. 
 
Final (outcome) reconviction measures for the prison pilot 
The outcome measure is the frequency of reconviction events3 (based on offences 
committed within 12 months of release from prison and convicted at court within those 
12 months or a further six month period). This is often referred to as a frequency 
measure. As with cohort 1, success of cohort 2 will be determined by comparison with a 
control group (of comparable offenders from across the country). Results for cohort 2 
will be available in the summer of 2016 and will be determined by an independent 
assessor. 
 
Users should, therefore, be aware that the figures presented here provide our best 
assessment of change at this point in time. 
 
 
Interim figures 
The cohort 2 figures presented in this statistical bulletin are 12 month reconviction 
figures for all eligible offenders released from Peterborough in the entire 24 months of 
the cohort 2 period. These are the full measurement periods, but they do not constitute 
the final results on which the outcome for cohort 2 will be assessed. 
 
Success of the Peterborough pilot will be measured against a control group of similar 
offenders released from other prisons, with the target met if the frequency of 
reconviction events is 10.0% lower for the Peterborough cohort 2 than for the control 
group, or 7.5% lower across Peterborough cohort 1 and cohort 2 combined. It is not 
possible to replicate that comparison for these interim figures. Instead, in order to 
provide some context for the Peterborough figures, we have provided equivalent 
national figures for the same periods. The national figures are based on other local4 
prisons which exclude Peterborough and Doncaster5. 
                                                
3 If an offender is convicted of multiple offences on one sentencing occasion, this counts as one 
reconviction event. 
4 Since HMP Peterborough is a local prison, the underlying characteristics of the prison and its offenders 
will be more similar to those of local prisons. See Annex B in the Definitions and Measurement document 
for a definition of a local prison. 
5 Since a PbR pilot was also ongoing in HMP Doncaster during the cohort period. 
 
 
 
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Table 1 and Figure 1: Peterborough (and national equivalent) interim 12 
month reconviction figures for offenders released during the entire 24 
months of the cohort 2 period 
 
Discharge 
period
Cohort 
size
Reconviction 
rate
Frequency of 
reconviction 
events per 100 
offenders
Cohort 
size
Reconviction 
rate
Frequency of 
reconviction 
events per 
100 offenders
July07-July09
1,282
55.5%
152
38,592
55.5%
140
July08-July10
1,212
53.3%
153
40,027
54.3%
141
July09-July11
1,055
52.0%
149
38,579
54.4%
148
July10-July12
1,043
51.6%
137
38,062
54.7%
153
July11-July13
1,028
50.4%
137
38,198
54.1%
155
July12-July14
997
51.6%
149
36,170
55.1%
160
Peterborough
National local prisons
 
 
 
0 
20 
40 
60 
80 
100 
120 
140 
160 
180 
July07‐July09
July08‐July10 
July09‐July11
July10‐July12
July11‐July13
July12‐July14 
Frequency of reconviction events per 100 offenders
Peterborough
National
 
Table 1 shows that for offenders released from Peterborough between 2 July 2012 and 
1 July 2014 (the entire 24 months of the cohort 2 period), there were an average of 149 
reconviction events per 100 offenders. This shows a decrease of 2.5%6 compared to an 
average of 153 reconviction events per 100 offenders released from Peterborough 
between July 2008 and July 20107. 
 
Nationally, the equivalent figures show a rise of 13.8%8 from 141 to 160 reconviction 
events per 100 offenders. 
 
                                                
6 Due to a rounding effect 149 ÷ 153 = 2.5% drop. 
7 July 2008 to July 2010 is used for comparison as it is the most recent period that does not overlap with 
the pilot cohort 1 period. 
8 Due to a rounding effect 160 ÷ 141 = 13.8% rise. 
 
 
 
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These interim figures show our best assessment of change at this point in time. The 
final results will be available in the summer of 2016. 
 
 
 
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Appendix to Annex A 
 
Table A1: Comparison of Peterborough PbR reconviction and National 
Statistics proven reoffending measures 
 
 
National Statistics measure 
of proven reoffending (for 
any prison) 
Peterborough PbR prison pilot 
reconviction measures 
 
All offenders who were 
released from custody, over a 
12 month period, regardless 
of sentence length. Excludes 
those in prison for breach 
Male offenders aged 18 or over 
released from Peterborough 
prison between 9 September 
2010 and 1 July 2012 (cohort 1) 
or 2 July 2012 and 1 July 2014 
(cohort 2), after serving 
sentences of less than 12 
months. 
The cohort 
Differences from National 
Statistics: 
 
Excludes those who serve 
the whole of their custodial 
sentence on remand 
 
Excludes foreign national 
offenders recorded as having 
been deported on release 
from prison 
 
Includes those in prison for 
breach 
 
The period to measure 
reconvictions/reoffending 
12 months for offences to 
occur and a further six 
months for offences to be 
proven (through conviction at 
court or a caution) 
12 months for offences to occur 
and a further six months for 
offences to be reconvicted 
 
Note: excludes cautions 
 
The headline measure 
Proportion of offenders who 
commit one or more proven 
reoffences 
Frequency of reconviction events 
What counts 
Offences committed in the 12 
months following release from 
prison, and proven by 
conviction at court or a 
caution either in those 12 
months or in a further six 
months 
Any reconviction event 
(sentencing occasion) relating to 
offences committed in the 12 
months following release from 
prison, and resulting in conviction 
at court either in those 12 months 
or in a further six months 
 
Note: excludes cautions 
 
 
 
 
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OGRS score data 
Reoffending is related to the characteristics of offenders, for example offenders with a 
large number of previous convictions are more likely to reoffend than those with fewer 
previous convictions, and changes in reconviction rates over time can be related to 
changes in the mix of offenders being worked with rather than a real change in the level 
of their reoffending. 
 
The Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS)9 is a predictor of reoffending based on 
age, gender and criminal history, which are risk factors known to be associated with the 
likelihood of reoffending. OGRS scores range from 0 to 1, with a lower score 
representing a lower likelihood of reoffending. The scores can be used to compare the 
relative likelihood of reoffending either over time or between different groups of 
offenders, with a higher/lower rate meaning a group of offenders who are more/less 
likely to reoffend. For example, if Offender Group A have an average OGRS score of 
0.44, and Offender Group B have an average OGRS score of 0.58, this means that 
Offender Group A are less likely to reoffend. 
 
Table A2 shows the average OGRS scores for each of the offender groups that are 
measured in table 1 above. These include offenders released from Peterborough prison 
as well as those for the equivalent national groups of offenders. The figures are 
approximate because a small portion of offenders from each group are not included due 
to some data being unavailable. 
 
Table A2: Peterborough (and national equivalent) OGRS scores for 
offenders released during the entire 24 months of the cohort 2 period 
 
Discharge period
Peterborough
National
July07-July09
0.49
0.51
July08-July10
0.49
0.51
July09-July11
0.49
0.51
July10-July12
0.48
0.51
July11-July13
0.49
0.51
July12-July14
0.50
0.52
Average OGRS score
 
 
 
Table A3: Other information on the pilot 
 
Number of 
eligible 
participants for 
Cohort 2 
Prison 
Start date of 
pilot 
Number of 
eligible 
participants for 
Cohort 1  
9 September 
2010 
1,03410 
99711 
Peterborough 
Social Impact 
Bond (SIB)  
                                                
9 For more details on OGRS see Ministry of Justice Research Summary 7/09 OGRS 3: the revised 
Offender Group Reconviction Scale at: 
webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20110201125714/http:/www.justice.gov.uk/publications/offender-
assessment-system.htm 
10 Eligible participants from Cohort 1 from 9 September 2010 to 1 July 2012. 
11 Eligible participants from Cohort 2 from 2 July 2012 to 1 July 2014. 
 
 
 
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Justice Statistics Analytical Services 
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London 
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Tel: xx-xxxx-xxxx 
 
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available from http://statisticsauthority.gov.uk/about-the-authority/uk-statistical-system. 
 
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© Crown copyright 2015 
 
This publication is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence v3.0 
except where otherwise stated. To view this licence, visit 
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