GAD’s model quality assurance supports key circular economy policy
Source: gov.uk (2025-11-10)

GAD’s expertise has helped the government develop and implement its circular economy policy on packaging waste.

The circular economy policy incentivises producers either to use more recyclable packaging or to reduce packaging altogether. This approach minimises waste by keeping materials in use through reuse and recycling, by designing out waste and creating a circular approach.

We work collaboratively with government departments to help:
- develop robust financial models
- establish effective quality assurance (QA) processes
- support delivery of assured analysis to support policy
When modelling and analysis are carried out with assurance built in from the start, this can support timely delivery of much needed policy interventions. Quality and transparency inspire confidence.

GAD began working with Defra’s packaging Extended Producer Responsibility team in 2022. This was early in the project to build a complex model of packaging waste processing costs. The modelling was needed, to support the policy to recover packaging waste costs from producers. This is to incentivise more sustainable packaging choices and reduce overall waste across the UK.

Assurance as modelling is developed

In 2023 and 2024 GAD provided a full time secondee, Tom Boardman, to Defra to work on model QA. As part of this role Tom:
- helped the team embed assurance processes as the modelling was being written, and wrote model documentation
- set standards for model quality
- used his experience of assuring analysis when working at GAD for Defra’s benefit
Tom said: “I enjoyed being able to apply my knowledge on the front line of modelling and analysis and working with a great team dedicated to important work.”

Range of approaches to fit the circumstances

In 2024 and 2025 Defra’s emphasis on assurance progressed to detailed checking of the model, now in advanced stages of development. Other supporting analysis also needed to be fully assured.

The team focused on managing risk through an assurance framework, needed to give confidence to Defra’s stakeholders.

GAD advised on all these aspects. This included providing a comprehensive line-byline review of the model code, providing extensive feedback to improve usability, transparency, stability and accuracy.

We also reviewed the approach for some machine learning analysis which led to substantial improvements in stability and auditability. Our recent review of the QA framework and compliance led to significant improvements in documentation and highlighted areas of residual risk for governance.

Continuing support

GAD’s head of Risk and Assurance Chris Paterson said: “Now in our fourth year of working together, we are looking forward to finalising our detailed checking of changes to the model. We will also continue to advise on the testing needed to ensure risks are minimised. I’ve worked on this since 2022, and we are proud to continue supporting Defra in implementing such an important policy.”

Defra’s Head of Fees and Payments Calculator Modelling & Delivery Tristan Ibrahim added: “GAD’s support has been very valuable to us. We’ve really appreciated the flexibility in how they work and their advice on our approach to assuring our analysis as well as checking the accuracy of the models.

“They’ve built strong relationships throughout the team, starting with Tom as a secondee and extending now to the wider team. Their assessments are important to the department as a measure of the quality of our models and analysis.”

This work demonstrates that GAD’s support can help by ensuring:
- the right governance is in place to manage and meet the expectations of all stakeholders
- production of proportionate and governance-ready documentation of assumptions, data, limitations and uncertainty
- evidence is appropriate to support teams in the face of challenge
- the right testing is designed and carried out to generate comprehensive documentation and confidence in results
- valid and stable machine learning algorithms are applied appropriately
- risks are understood and managed early
- the latest in cross-government standards are applied
With a well-developed QA culture stemming from the heart of the actuarial profession, a dedicated QA team, and direct involvement in government standards, GAD is ideally placed to provide the flexible support that teams need.