NTEM: Version 7
Source: data.gov.uk (2024-07-04)

National Trip End Model (NTEM). The [freely available TEMPro software is required to view these datasets](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/tempro-downloads).

The National Trip End Model (NTEM) model forecasts the growth in trip origin-destinations (or productions-attractions) up to 2051 for use in transport modelling. The forecasts take into account national projections of:

- population
- employment
- housing
- car ownership
- trip rates

NTEM forecasts are subject to uncertainty, especially when disaggregated to local zones or travel modes. Before using the NTEM forecasts, the following DfT guidance should be reviewed: 

- [TAG Unit M-4 Forecasting and Uncertainty](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/webtag-tag-unit-m4-forecasting-and-uncertainty-november-2014) 
- [NTEM Planning Guidance](https://assets.dft.gov.uk/tempro/version7.2/NTEM72-documentation.zip) that provides an overview of the forecasts and the input data used (available in the NTEM Documentation Download below). 

Further technical details are available in the [NTEM specification](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/webtag-si-ntem-sub-models-july-2016).

Queries regarding the NTEM forecasts should be sent to [Department for Transport](mailto:tempro@dft.gov.uk). To register to receive updates, email [TEMProMailingList@atkinsglobal.com](TEMProMailingList@atkinsglobal.com) to be added to the TEMPro distribution list. 

[GIS boundary files for the NTEM zone system are available](https://data.gov.uk/dataset/visual-boundaries-for-the-national-trip-end-model-ntem).

1 
Status of the NTEM 7.0 dataset 
On 28th July 2016 a new version of TEMPRO and NTEM dataset (version 7.0) was 
published. 
This was an important and long-awaited update of the NTEM datasets which was 
previously revised in 2011 (version 6.2) and contained a number of important 
improvements:  
 The use of 2011 Census data instead of the 2001 Census used in version 6.2.  
 The use of recent population, household and employment projections, as well as 
the more up-to-date dwellings trajectories for local authorities.  
 Incorporation of the latest evidence on trends in driving licence holding. 
 Updated assumptions about trip rates based on recent National Travel Survey 
(NTS) evidence, which is a significant update as the last NTEM datasets used trip 
rates derived from 1988-1996 NTS data.  
Full details can be found in the NTEM Planning Data Guidance version 7 published in 
TEMPRO website.  
Since the release, some localised issues have been identified with the NTEM7.0 
dataset which arose from the use of incorrect data in the model. These issues 
occurred in the processing of input data for employment and dwellings for a small but 
significant number of local authorities. The local authorities which are known to be 
materially affected by these issues are listed in table 1.  
The application of revised input assumptions will affect the projections for all local 
authorities but in the vast majority of cases these changes are unlikely to be material. 
However, our preliminary testing suggests that in a small number of cases there may 
be a significant impact on other local authorities. These are listed in table 2. 
We are currently working through these issues, conducting further checks and are 
considering the most appropriate format for an addendum to NTEM7.0 when our 
review is complete. Based on the current progress, we anticipate that an addendum 
could be formally issued in January 2017 (the Department will issue an update of this 
timescale in December). 
It is the Department’s view that until the addendum is released NTEM7.0 continues to 
provide the most up-to-date dataset for use in transport business cases and a robust 
basis for developing forecasts in the vast majority of cases. However, NTEM users 
are advised to take particular care when applying the dataset in the affected area. 
Promoters of schemes in the affected areas should contact the Department if they 
have queries or concerns regarding the NTEM7.0 dataset and require further advice 
in relation to their business cases.  
 
 
 

2 
Table 1  Authorities known to be materially affected by issues with input data 
Region 
Local Authority 
Affected input 
South East 
Crawley 
Dwellings 
East Midlands 
Daventry 
Dwellings 
Scotland 
Glasgow City 
Dwellings 
East Midlands 
Lincoln 
Dwellings 
East of England 
Mid Suffolk 
Dwellings 
Yorkshire & the Humber 
North East Lincolnshire 
Dwellings 
East Midlands 
North Kesteven 
Dwellings 
South West 
North Somerset 
Dwellings 
East Midlands 
North West Leicestershire 
Dwellings 
East Midlands 
Northampton 
Dwellings 
South West 
Poole 
Dwellings 
South East 
Rother 
Dwellings 
Scotland 
Shetland Islands 
Dwellings 
Scotland 
South Lanarkshire 
Dwellings 
East of England 
South Norfolk 
Dwellings 
East Midlands 
South Northamptonshire 
Dwellings 
South East 
South Oxfordshire 
Dwellings 
London 
Southwark 
Dwellings 
West Midlands 
Telford and Wrekin 
Dwellings 
Scotland 
West Dunbartonshire 
Dwellings 
East Midlands 
West Lindsey 
Dwellings 
West Midlands 
Wolverhampton 
Dwellings 
South West 
North Devon 
Dwellings & employment 
South West 
Torridge 
Dwellings & employment 
South West 
West Dorset 
Dwellings & employment 
South West 
Wiltshire 
Dwellings & employment 
West Midlands 
Wychavon 
Dwellings & employment 
South East 
Chiltern 
Employment 
North East 
County Durham 
Employment 
Scotland 
Dumfries and Galloway 
Employment 
South West 
Forest of Dean 
Employment 
West Midlands 
Malvern Hills 
Employment 
South West 
Mid Devon 
Employment 
South West 
North Dorset 
Employment 
Scotland 
Orkney Islands 
Employment 
Scotland 
Scottish Borders 
Employment 

3 
West Midlands 
Shropshire 
Employment 
South East 
South Bucks 
Employment 
West Midlands 
Staffordshire Moorlands 
Employment 
South West 
Swindon 
Employment 
South West 
West Devon 
Employment 
South West 
West Somerset 
Employment 
West Midlands 
Worcester 
Employment 
South East 
Wycombe 
Employment 
 
 
Table 2  Authorities where the impact of revisions to other authorities is 
expected to have a significant impact on projections 
Region 
Local Authority 
West Midlands 
Herefordshire, County of 
South West 
South Somerset 
West Midlands 
Wyre Forest