Bristol City Council: Not In Education, Employment or Training Model
Source: gov.uk (2025-01-28)

The NEET (Not in Education, Employment, or training) Model is hosted on the Think Family Database (TFD) and used to help safeguarding professionals from Bristol City Council to coordinate support for families who are at risk of becoming NEET.

Tier 1 Information

Name

NEET (Not in Education, Employment, or Training) Model Hosted on the Think Family Database (TFD)

Description

The NEET (Not in Education, Employment, or Training) Model is hosted on the Think Family Database (TFD) and used to help safeguarding professionals from Bristol City Council to coordinate support for families who are at risk of becoming NEET.

It is a targeted risk data model which predicts whether an individual may be at risk of becoming NEET after finishing education. The model is built using school attendance and school attainment data, as well as vulnerability data, to identify whether individuals are potentially at risk, by using decision tree modelling. Regression analysis and feature importance has been used to understand how predictive the variables are.

The model has been trained first and then applied to the population of 4-16 year olds. If a vulnerable individual has similar disadvantages or is in a similar situation to a cohort that went on to become NEET, that individual will be flagged by the model. The more similar the individuals’ circumstances to the cohort that went to becoming NEET, the higher the score the individual will have.

These scores can facilitate safeguarding professionals’ decisions to provide the right support at the right time. For example, if an individual is flagged as at risk of NEET, the safeguarding professionals may decide to encourage the individual to join support groups such as the Creative Youth Network to reduce the risk of becoming NEET. Other strategies can be put in place in conjunction with schools, such as mentorship programmes, tailored advice, collaboration opportunities, and communication with parents, where this is deemed appropriate. The rationale for using this model is to help reduce instances of NEET, and support pupils to find further education, training or employment.

Website URL

https://www.bristol.gov.uk/residents/social-care-and-health/children-and-families/insight-bristol

Contact email

xxx@xxx.xx

Tier 2 - Owner and Responsibility

1.1 - Organisation or department

The Insight Bristol Team,

Bristol City Council

Early Intervention & Targeted Services (Children and Families Services).

1.2 - Team

Insight Bristol

1.3 - Senior responsible owner

Data and Analytics Manager

Senior Data Analyst

Data Analyst

Insight, Performance & Intelligence

1.4 - Supplier or developer of the algorithmic tool

Avon and Somerset Police

1.5 - External supplier identifier

N/A

1.6 - External supplier role

The model has been developed internally using Bristol City Council held data. However, Avon and Somerset Police have provided some data from data sources they have access to. Data supplied by Avon and Somerset Police to Bristol City Council is detailed on the Insight Bristol Webpage

1.7 - Terms of access to data for external supplier

N/A

Tier 2 - Description

2.1 - Scope

The purpose of the model is:
- To identify young people who might be vulnerable to becoming NEET at the earliest opportunity so that interventions can be offered in a timely way.
- To track over time how vulnerability to becoming NEET increases/decreases to assess the effectiveness of interventions.
- To create a strategic view of NEET risk so that targeted interventions might be developed at a place/locality/ward/school level.
- To act as a prompt to engage with colleagues and partners to get a greater of understanding of the events that contributed towards a high risk score.
The purpose is not to:
- Replace professional judgement or human decision making; scores generated by the model are not taken in isolation and professionals consider contextual factors before acting.
- Create a definitive list of those who have NEET risk – the data can only tell part of the story, and professionals are encouraged to use other tools to identify people who might not be included in the model.
- The NEET model does not guarantee access to statutory services or other support. Front door advisors will consider the scores in their decisions around providing support, but a risk of NEET identification does not automatically equate to a referral outcome.
2.2 - Benefit

The model facilitates a better understanding of the intersecting issues that form ‘vulnerabilities’ for families. This includes:
- Better identification of need – early identification of need leads to earlier interventions and better understanding of risks with greater accuracy.
- Better information for practitioners – the NEET model better informs the safeguarding staff, including the Post 16 team, who work with vulnerable young adults who are older than 16 and accessing support services.
- Better understanding of how problems develop – The NEET model can inform strategic decisions at a senior level and may assist policy decisions and allocation of resources if trends are discovered, or areas become ‘hotspots’ for individuals at risk of NEET.
2.3 - Alternatives considered

2.4 - Type of model

Decision tree and regression models

2.5 - Frequency of usage

The outputs from the models are accessed daily by safeguarding professionals across the council as they are built into the front-end practitioner view of the TFD. The data is refreshed on a weekly basis. The model is fed into the TFD and is tracked and audited on a random basis. The data is also supplied to School settings in Bristol through work funded by the West of England Combined Authority.

2.6 - Phase

Production

2.7 - Maintenance

The NEET model itself is reviewed frequently – at least every 6 months. We also review the accuracy of the NEET model using precision and recall techniques so that we can update where necessary. Schools are also given the opportunity to provide feedback.

There is no automated decision making based on the NEET model. The model produces a risk score, which is then used as an indicator of vulnerability, to show whether young persons are at risk of becoming NEET. This score informs professionals, providing information that a professional may not have had immediate access to otherwise.

2.8 - System architecture

Tier 2 - Oversight

3.1 - Process integration

The NEET model is not prescriptive. It produces a risk score which is used as an indicator of vulnerability. The NEET model is not used to make decisions. It produces risk scores based on information a professional may not have immediate access to, which they may use to contact other professionals in a different service to gather extra context to the support the individual.

3.2 - Provided information

The NEET model provides the decision maker with an indication of whether using our data, our model believes a young person to be at risk of NEET, information around how the risk was calculated (that they may not have previously had access to) and an indication of how the current score relates to that individual’s previous scores (i.e. is risk significantly increasing, decreasing, historic or static). The model is built with detailed explainer text that allows the safeguarding professional top-level understanding for why the individual has been signposted with a risk of NEET and with the score they have.

3.3 - Human decisions and review

Safeguarding professionals can decide to use (or not use) the model in calculating the safeguarding measures for the vulnerable individual. If they choose to use the model, the Safeguarding professionals will use the risk score of the model to inform their decision making. The model will help them get a better understanding of risk and vulnerability.

3.4 - Required training

The people producing the models have all undertaken data science training. The people using the data are informed of how the model is built, along with explainer text distinctly created for each individual who has been given a risk of NEET score. We have delivered the model alongside robust information governance documentation. Within the training and refresher sessions for using the TFD, we have included an explainer of the model as well as information on data protection of the data subjects.

3.5 - Appeals and review

All information is stored on our website. We also answer Freedom of Information requests, along with data access requests. The data models do not make specific decisions. However, all information on how we use the models is displayed on our website. If an individual were to request their data to be removed or not used for the purposes of the NEET model, Bristol City Council would action this promptly.

Tier 2 - Information on Data

4.1 - Source data name

N/A

4.2 - Source data

The NEET model has been built using data from the full cohort in the Think Family Database. The cohort was split into training and testing data to help build the model. Going forwards, the model will be applied to the latest sample of people aged 4-16 only.

4.3 - Source data URL

N/A - All information is stored within Bristol City Council and Avon and Somerset Police.

4.4 - Data collection

The data is collected in line with the nationwide Supporting Families programme further details of the Nation Supporting Families Programme can be found : https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/supporting-families

4.5 - Data sharing agreements

We have a number of internal and external DSAs:

Schools, Academies and other Education Providers in Bristol are sharing data with Bristol City Council – educational data in connection with the Supporting Families Programme

Avon and Somerset Police is sharing data with Bristol City Council – criminal data in connection to the Supporting Families Programme

DWP is sharing data with Bristol City Council – Welfare benefit records in connection with the Supporting Families Programme

NHS is sharing data with Bristol City Council (Health Intelligence) DSA - child health record in connection with the Supporting Families Programme

The South, Central and West Commissioning Support Unit (SCWCSU) – births and deaths data for Bristol.

Other Internal Bristol City Council services is sharing data to Insight Bristol in connection with the Supporting Families Programme including;
- Public Health
- Education
- Adult Social Care
- Children Social Care
- Housing
- Land and Property
4.6 - Data access and storage

Information is currently stored on both secure council servers and within Microsoft cloud and held in the Azure data lake. Data engineers and Data Analysts will have access to this information when required. The Post 16 team, along with other safeguarding professionals using the TFD will have access to the output of the NEET Model. Users of the TFD are given one-to-one training outlining appropriate use of the data and information regarding how the scores are calculated and should be used. Overall, there are around 150 safeguarding professionals from Bristol City Council using the front-end report for the TFD (known as the Children & Families View) each month.

Tier 2 - Risks, Mitigations and Impact Assessments

5.1 - Impact assessment name

TFD BCC DPIA Programme Version V2.0

5.2 - Impact assessment description

Data Protection Impact Assessment (DPIA) for the work programme relating to the Supporting Families Programme being delivered by the Insight Team.

5.3 - Impact assessment date

Created 01/11/2018 Last Updated July 2024

5.4 - Impact assessment link

5.5 - Risk name

Data leak

Tools used in the wrong ways

Children missed who are vulnerable

5.6 - Risk description

As above

5.7 - Risk mitigation

Our architecture and set up only allows people to access to information from the TFD if they are in an appropriate safeguarding role. Only Data Analysts have access to the database directly, to oversee the maintenance of the database. Those trained in safeguarding have access to the front-end report known as the Children and Families View, and designated safeguarding leads at schools have access to the Think Family Education application. Both of these reports share some data about risk of NEET. Access to these systems is based on a professional attending a full training session (or completing e-learning materials) where explanations for how to use the systems, and usage agreements, are provided. Access is only given to people inside the council using windows AD. In the future, partners will be able to access some information. This will be done using role profile security within Microsoft Azure, using Sharepoint and Power BI. Therefore, data is stored in and will not leave the council’s system.

Training is given to individuals providing information about the NEET model, for example, how and why the tool has been built and guidance about using it alongside professional judgement. There is also explainer text for the safeguarding lead to understand why a person is present in the NEET model (e.g. due to school attendance factors, attainment at school, etc.).

The NEET Model produces a cohort of young people identified to be at risk of NEET. The model is then used as an indicator of vulnerability – there are over 70 other indicators of vulnerabilities for safeguarding leads to fully understand what action /decision is required. The safeguarding lead will assess and consider all factors related to providing the right support, risk of NEET is one of many factors that the safeguarding lead will consider.