Proven Reoffending Statistics Quarterly Bulletin, January 2016 to March 2016
Source: data.gov.uk (2018-05-25)

Proven Re-offending statistics. Key statistics on proven reoffending in England and Wales. It gives proven reoffending figures for offenders who were released from custody, received a non-custodial conviction at court, or received a caution or reprimand.

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Published 25 January 2018 
Proven Reoffending Statistics Quarterly Bulletin, 
January 2016 to March 2016  
Main points 
This bulletin provides key statistics on Proven Reoffending for adult and juvenile offenders 
who were released from custody, received a non-custodial conviction at court, or received a 
caution in the period January to March 2016. The proven reoffending methodology 
changed in October 2017. For more information about the changes see the October 2017 
publication. 
The overall proven 
reoffending rate was 
29.6%
 
The overall proven reoffending rate has remained 
unchanged from the previous quarter (a 0.02 percentage 
point increase) and has decreased by around 2 
percentage points since 2005. Over time the rate has 
fluctuated around 29% to 32%. 
Adult offenders had a 
proven reoffending rate of 
28.7%
 
The adult proven reoffending rate has remained 
unchanged from the previous quarter (a 0.01 percentage 
change increase) and has decreased by up to 1 
percentage point since 2005. The rate has remained 
broadly flat over time, fluctuating between 28% and 31%. 
Juvenile offenders had a 
proven reoffending rate of 
42.3%
 
The juvenile reoffending rate has increased by 0.5 
percentage points from the previous quarter and around 
4-5 percentage points since 2005. However, the size of 
the cohort has fallen by around 80% since 2005.  
Adults released from 
custody or court orders 
had a proven reoffending 
rate of 37.4%
 
The proven reoffending rate for adult offenders released 
from custody or court orders was 37.4%, a decrease of 
0.6 percentage points compared to the previous quarter 
and around 4-5 percentage points from 2005.  
 
This bulletin, associated tables and data tools present the proportion of offenders who 
reoffend (proven reoffending rate) and the number of proven reoffences by offender history, 
demographics, individual prisons, probation area, local authorities and youth offending 
teams. For technical details please refer to the accompanying guide to proven reoffending 
statistics.  
 
For any feedback related to the content of this publication, please let us know at 
xxx@xxx.xx 

 
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How is proven reoffending measured? 
 
An offender enters the cohort if they were released from custody, received a non-custodial 
conviction at court or received a reprimand or warning in a three month period: January to 
March 2016. It is important to note that this is not comparable to proven reoffending 
publications prior to October 2017, which reported on a 12 month cohort.  
 
A proven reoffence is defined as any offence committed in a one year follow-up period that 
leads to a court conviction, caution, reprimand or warning in the one year follow-up or within 
a further six month waiting period to allow the offence to be proven in court as shown in the 
diagram below.  
 
 
 
Users should be cautious when making any comparison between cohorts before and after 
October 2015. This is because there is a change in data source from October 2015 
onwards. In addition, users should be cautious when comparing the 3 monthly cohorts to 
one another (e.g. January to March 2016 to October to December 2015) – as due to the 
smaller cohort size, the measure is likely to be more variable than the previous 12 month 
cohort measure of reoffending.  
 
For further details on this, and how proven reoffending is measured, please see the guide to 
proven reoffending statistics and ‘How the measure of proven reoffending has changed and 
the effect of these changes’. 
01-Jan-16
31-Mar-16
30-Jun-16
30-Sep-16
01-Jan-17
31-Mar-17
30-Jun-17
30-Sep-17
First offender 
enters cohort
One year period in which 
reoffences are measured 
Offender enters cohort 
in three month period 
Last offender 
enters cohort
We report on the offences that lead to 
a court conviction, caution, reprimand 
or warning within the year 
OR within a further six 
months to allow the 
offence to be proven 
in court

 
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1. Overall – adult and juvenile offenders  
29.6% of offenders in the January to March 2016 cohort reoffended within a year 
 
In January to March 2016 around 128,000 adult and juvenile offenders were cautioned1, 
received a non-custodial conviction at court or were released from custody. Around 
38,000 of these offenders committed a proven reoffence within a year. This gives an 
overall proven reoffending rate of 29.6%, unchanged from the previous quarter.  
Over time the overall proven reoffending rate has fluctuated between 29% to 32%.  
Figure 1: Proportion of adult and juvenile offenders in England and Wales who 
commit a proven reoffence, April 2005 to March 20162 (Source: Table A1) 
 
The proven reoffending rate for the 2015/16 annual cohort was 29.5%, slightly down from 
2014/15.3 
Around 146,000 proven reoffences were committed over the one year follow-up period, with 
those that reoffended committing, on average, 3.87 reoffences each. The average number 
of reoffences per reoffender has gradually increased since 2009 and is the highest since 
2005. 
In the January to March 2016 cohort, 83% were male and 17% were female, with the 
proportion of males in the cohort slightly higher than in 2005. Male offenders reoffended at a 
higher rate of 30.8% compared to female offenders who reoffended at a rate of 23.7%. Both 
rates have remained broadly stable since 2005. 
                                               
1 Includes reprimands and warnings for juveniles.  
2 Data in the chart is based on financial years, therefore Q1= April-June, Q2 = July-September, Q3 = October-
December and Q4 = January-March. 
3 The 2015/16 annual cohort is based on two different data sources. Users should be careful when comparing to 
previous years.  
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2005/6
2006/7
2007/8
2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16
Proportion of offenders who reoffend (%)
Number of offenders in cohort ('000s)
Cohort
Adult Q1
Juvenile Q1
Adult Q2
Juvenile Q2
Adult Q3
Juvenile Q3
Adult Q4
Juvenile Q4
Adult proportion who reoffend (%)
Juvenile proportion who reoffend (%)
Adult Proportion who reoffend (quarterly, %)
Juvenile proportion who reoffend (quarterly, %)
Change of data source 
from Oct-Dec 2015 
cohort onwards

 
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2. Adult offenders 
28.7% of adult offenders in the January to March 2016 cohort reoffended within a 
year  
 
Adult offenders accounted for 93% (around 119,000) of the January to March 2016 
cohort and juvenile offenders accounted for 7% (around 9,000)4. Around 34,000 of all 
adult offenders were proven to have committed a reoffence within a year, giving a 
proven reoffending rate of 28.7%. This is unchanged since last quarter.  
Figure 2: Proportion of adult offenders in England and Wales who commit a proven 
reoffence, by number of previous offences, January to March 2016 (Source: Table 
A5a)  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The change in data source in October 2015 means users should remain cautious when 
comparing the latest quarter with results from quarters before October 2015. However, the 
adult reoffending rate has remained broadly flat since 2005, fluctuating between 28% and 
31%. The proven reoffending rate for the 2016/16 annual adult cohort was 28.5%, down 
slightly from the previous year.   
Around 132,000 proven reoffences were committed by adults over the one year follow-up 
period. Those that reoffended in the January to March 2016 cohort committed on average 
3.87 reoffences each. This has been increasing since July to September 2009.  
Offenders with a large number of previous offences have a higher rate of proven 
reoffending than those with fewer previous offences. In the cohort, the proven reoffending 
rates for adults ranged from 7.3% for offenders with no previous offences to 49.9% for 
offenders with 11 or more previous offences. Adult offenders with 11 or more previous 
offences made up 38% of all adult offenders in the cohort, but committed over 75% of all 
adult proven reoffences.  
                                               
4 A certain proportion of offenders who could not be matched to the Police National Computer (PNC) are 
excluded from the offender cohort. Therefore, this number does not represent all proven offenders. This means 
that the number of offenders in this bulletin will be different from the numbers published in Offender 
Management Statistics Quarterly and Criminal Justice Statistics. Please refer to the guide to proven reoffending 
statistics for further information.  
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
No previous
offences
1 to 2 previous
offences
3 to 6 previous
offences
7 to 10 previous
offences
11 or more
previous offences
Proportion of offenders who reoffend (%)
Previous offence band
January to March 2016

 
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3. Adjusted reoffending rates 
When controlling for offender characteristics 28.4% of adult offenders in the 
January to March 2016 cohort reoffended within a year  
 
Adjusted proven reoffending rates for adults are calculated using the Offender Group 
Reconviction Scale (OGRS4/G). OGRS4 is based on a well-established, peer reviewed 
methodology for assessing and representing reoffending risk5. The raw rates have 
been adjusted to the 2011 calendar year, in line with the Payment by Result statistics.  
Figure 3: The average OGRS scores (2011 adjusted) and the adjusted proven 
reoffending rate for adults, April 2005 to March 2016 (Source: Table A1)  
 
Between 2005 and 2011 the average OGRS score increased, but since 2011 it has 
remained broadly flat. This indicates that between 2005 and 2011 the cohort had an 
increasing propensity to reoffend, but since 2011 this has since levelled off.  As a result 
the raw reoffending rate for adults are adjusted upwards between 2005 and 2010 
reflecting the cohort having a greater propensity to reoffend.  
Following 2011 the raw rates and the adjusted rates have tracked each other more 
closely. For example, the raw reoffending rate for adults for the January to March 2016 
period was 28.7%, but the adjusted rate was 28.4%.  
This suggests that while raw reoffending rates have remained broadly flat since 2005 the 
adjusted rates have shown a decreasing trend to reflect the greater propensity to 
reoffend of cohorts over this time. 
                                               
5www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/449357/research-analysis-offender-
assessment-system.pdf 
 

 
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4. Juvenile offenders6 
Figure 4: Proportion of adult and juvenile offenders in England and Wales who 
commit a proven reoffence, by age, January to March 2016 (Source: Table A3)  
 
 
The proven reoffending rate for the 2015/16 annual cohort for juveniles was 42.2%, down 
by 0.5 percentage points from 2014/157.  
Around 15,000 proven reoffences were committed by juveniles over the one year follow-up 
period. Those that reoffended committed on average 3.86 reoffences each. Juvenile 
offenders with 11 or more previous offences had a higher reoffending rate than those with 
no previous offences – 76.7% compared to 23.6%. 
Offenders aged 10 to 14 had the highest reoffending rate of any age group, with a 
reoffending rate of 43.1%. However, the number of offenders in this age group has fallen by 
around 87% since 2005. The reoffending rate for this age group overtook offenders aged 15 
to 17 in 2013/14, who previously had a consistently higher reoffending rate but are now 
second highest. Figure 4 shows that the proven reoffending rate generally falls with 
increasing age. 
                                               
6 Juveniles are defined as those aged 10 to 17 years old. 
7 The Youth Justice Board statistical publication uses the annual cohort data to report on juvenile offending.  
0
10
20
30
40
50
10 to 14 15 to 17 18 to 20 21 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49
50+
Proportion of offenders who reoffend (%)
Age
42.3% of juvenile offenders in the January to March 2016 cohort reoffended within one 
year  
 
Around 9,000 juvenile offenders were cautioned, convicted or released from custody in 
the January to March 2016 cohort and around 4,000 of them committed a reoffence. 
This gives a proven reoffending rate of 42.3%. While this is up 0.5 percentage points 
since last quarter, the new reoffending measure is likely to be more variable from 
quarter to quarter due to the smaller size of the cohorts.  
Since 2005, the reoffending rate has increased by around 4-5 percentage points, but 
the size of the cohort has fallen by around 80% over the same period. 
Adult
Juvenile

 
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5. Index disposal8 - adults 
Figure 5: Proportion of adult offenders released from custody who commit a proven 
reoffence, by custodial sentence length, April 2005 to March 2016 (Source: Table C2a) 
For adult offenders starting a court order (Community sentence or Suspended Sentence 
Order) the proven reoffending rate was 33.4%. The rate for this group has declined since 
2005 by around 4-5 percentage points.  
The proven reoffending rate for adult offenders released from custody was 48.7%. The 
effect of changing data source in October 2015 is particularly noticeable among offenders 
discharged from custodial sentences of less than 12 months. This might be connected to 
the introduction of statutory supervision for this group. Investigation is ongoing, as more 
data becomes available.  
The rate for those released from short sentences (less than 12 months) has been 
consistently higher compared to those released from longer sentences. Adults who served 
sentences of less than 12 months reoffended at a rate of 64.6%, compared to 29.9% for 
those who served determinate sentences of 12 months or more. The proven reoffending 
rate trend for adults released from custodial sentences of 12 months or more has been 
decreasing since 2010.  
                                               
8 Proven reoffending rates by index disposal should not be compared to assess the effectiveness of sentences, 
as there is no control for known differences in offender characteristics and the type of sentence given. For further 
information see Annex D of the October 2016 publication (page 41) and the guide to proven reoffending 
statistics. 
 
Adults released from custody or starting court orders had a proven reoffending 
rate of 37.4% 
The index disposal of the offender is the type of sentence the offender received for their 
index offence. For Proven Reoffending Statistics this is defined as caution, court order, 
custody, or other disposal resulting from a conviction at court, such as a fine or discharge. 

 
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6. Index disposal – juveniles  
 
Figure 6: Proportion of juvenile offenders released from custody or given a 
reprimand, warning or caution who commit a proven reoffence, April 2005 to March 
2016 (Source: Table C1b) 
Between January and March 2016, 194 juvenile offenders were released from custody and 
136 of these (70.1%) were proven to have committed a reoffence within a year. This 
represents a fall of approximately 4-6 percentage points since 2005 and an increase of 5 
percentage points compared to the previous quarter. However, as previously noted, there is 
likely to be more variation with the new reoffending measure, from one quarter to another, 
due to the reduced size of the cohort.   
 
Juvenile offenders given youth cautions had a proven reoffending rate of 29.8% 
The reoffending rate for juvenile offenders given a youth caution was 29.8%. This has 
remained broadly flat since 2013, but has increased by around 2-3 percentage points 
since 2005. Reprimands and warnings for youths were abolished under Legal Aid 
Sentencing and Punishment of Offenders Act 2012 with effect from 8 April 2013 and 
replaced with youth cautions.  
 
Youth cautions are a formal out-of-court disposal that can be used as an alternative to 
prosecution for juvenile offenders in certain circumstances. A Youth Caution may be 
given for any offence where the young offender admits an offence, there is sufficient 
evidence for a realistic prospect of conviction but it is not in the public interest to 
prosecute. 
 

 
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7. Index offences  
In the January to March 2016 cohort, adult offenders with an index offence of ‘Theft’ 
had the highest reoffending rate at 50.8% 
 
The offence that leads to an offender being included in the offender cohort is called the 
index offence. In the January to March 2016 adult cohort, offenders with an index 
offence of ‘Theft’ had the highest proven reoffending rate of 50.8%. The second highest 
reoffending rate for adult offenders was for those with an index offence of ‘Public Order’ 
with a rate of 36.2%. 
 
Figure 7: Proportion of adult and juvenile offenders in England and Wales who 
commit a proven reoffence, by index offence, January to March 2016 (Source: Table 
A4a/b) 
With the exception of index offences recorded as ‘Other’, those with the lowest rate of 
reoffending in the adult cohort had an index offence of ‘Fraud’ – reoffending at a rate of 
11.4%. Additionally, the ‘Fraud’ index offence category saw the largest decrease and those 
with an index offence of ‘Violence against the Person’ saw the biggest increase since 2005.  
 
In the juvenile cohort those with an index offence of ‘Public Order’ had the highest proven 
reoffending rate at 51.9%, closely followed by those with an index offence of ‘Robbery’ at 
49.3%. Those with the lowest rate had a ‘Sexual’ index offence (with the exception of the 
‘Other’ index offence category) and reoffended at a rate of 14.6%. 

 
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Further information 
 
Accompanying files 
As well as this bulletin, the following products are published as part of this release: 
• 
A technical guide to proven reoffending statistics providing information on how 
proven reoffending is measured, and the data sources used. 
• 
A set of overview tables, covering each section of this bulletin. 
• 
A number of data tools which provide proven reoffending data by demographics, 
offender history, individual prisons (available from January 2005 – September 2015) 
and probation area and geography. 
 
National Statistics status 
National Statistics status means that official statistics meet the highest standards of 
trustworthiness, quality and public value. 
All official statistics should comply with all aspects of the Code of Practice for Official 
Statistics. They are awarded National Statistics status following an assessment by the 
Authority’s regulatory arm. The Authority considers whether the statistics meet the highest 
standards of Code compliance, including the value they add to public decisions and debate. 
It is the Ministry of Justice’s responsibility to maintain compliance with the standards 
expected for National Statistics. If we become concerned about whether these statistics are 
still meeting the appropriate standards, we will discuss any concerns with the Authority 
promptly. National Statistics status can be removed at any point when the highest standards 
are not maintained, and reinstated when standards are restored. 
 
Contact 
Press enquiries should be directed to the Ministry of Justice press office: 
Tel: xx-xxxx-xxxx 
Email: xxx@xxx.xx  
Other enquiries about these statistics should be directed to the Justice Statistics Analytical 
Services division of the Ministry of Justice: 
Nick Mavron, Head of Prison, Probation, Reoffending and PbR Statistics 
Ministry of Justice, 7th Floor, 102 Petty France, London, SW1H 9AJ 
Email: xxx@xxx.xx 
 
Next update: April 2018 
URL: www.gov.uk/government/collections/proven-reoffending-statistics 
 
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Produced by the Ministry of Justice 
Alternative formats are available on request from xxx@xxx.xx