Outcomes methodology document: SFR41/2015
Source: data.gov.uk (2017-07-05)

Characteristics of children in need: 2014 to 2015. Characteristics of children in need: 2014 to 2015 Children referred to and assessed by children's social services for the financial year ending March 2015. The ‘main text’ document includes information on: children in need of social services children referred to social services assessments of children in need and their primary need at first assessment section 47 enquiries (a local authority carries out one of these if they suspect a child is suffering, or likely to suffer, significant harm) and initial child protection conferences children who were the subject of a child protection plan The ‘main tables’ and first ‘methodology’ document relate to this publication. We subsequently published the ‘outcomes tables’, showing figures that result from matching the children in need census to the national pupil database (NPD). These tables show children in need by: prevalence of free school meals (FSM) special educational needs (SEN) attainment absence and exclusions The ‘outcomes methodology’ document explains the matching process and calculations we used in these tables.

Children in need 
census matched to 
the national pupil 
database  
Methodology document for 2014 to 2015 
census 
March 2016 
 
 

2 
 
Contents 
Data sources 
3 
Children in need census 
3 
National pupil database 
3 
External matching process 
4 
Internal matching process 
5 
Children in need population 
5 
Removing looked after children 
5 
Duplicate records in the NPD extract 
6 
Data quality 
7 
Analysis 
8 
Changes to the tables this year 
12 
Related publications 
13 
Looked after children 
13 
All children 
13 
 

3 
 
Data sources 
Children in need census 
The children in need (CIN) census collects information at child level on: 
• any child referred to children’s social care services within the year; and 
• any cases open at the beginning of the year for whom local authorities were 
providing a service 
 
The collection of the data from each local authority allows the local and national level 
calculation of information on the numbers of referrals and assessments carried out by 
children’s social care services, along with the identification of the number of children 
assessed to be in need and the numbers who were the subject of a child protection plan. 
National pupil database 
The national pupil database (NPD) is a longitudinal database linking pupil/student 
characteristics to school and college learning aims and achievement information for all 
children in state-funded schools in England. Further information on the NPD, including a 
user guide, can be found here. Information on requesting NPD extracts can be found 
here. 
The CIN census has been matched to the NPD to understand characteristics, attainment 
and absence of children in need. This is the sixth year the CIN census has been matched 
to the NPD. For years prior to 2011 to 2012, analysis has been shared with local 
authorities but not published due to data quality concerns. Due to improved data quality, 
this is the fourth year DfE has published this analysis. 
Looked after children have been removed from the analysis to align with measures 
included in the children’s safeguarding performance information framework. Further detail 
on the removal of looked after children can be found on page 5. 
The analysis contained in the additional outcomes tables includes local authority and 
national level information on: 
• matching rates between the CIN census and the NPD 
• prevalence of special educational needs (SEN) and free school meals (FSM) 
• attainment at key stage 2, key stage 4 and progression between these key stages 
• absence and exclusion rates 
• absence rates for children in need who were also the subject of a child protection 
plan 

4 
 
External matching process 
The matching of the CIN census to the NPD is managed by an external contractor. The 
main matching key is the child’s unique pupil number (UPN). A UPN is automatically 
allocated to each child in maintained schools in England and Wales. It is an identifier only 
for use in an educational context during a child’s school career. Local authorities are 
asked to return UPNs as part of the CIN census.   
A record from the CIN census is matched into the NPD if there is enough identifiable or 
characteristic information (mainly UPN, but also gender and date of birth) available in that 
record which either: 
a) identifies the child as already being in the NPD via its appearance in other data 
sources (which includes the school census and the early years census and 
previous CIN-NPD datasets) and from which the existing pupil ID can then be 
attributed to the new record from the 2014 to 2015 CIN census, or  
b) involves creating a new pupil ID for the child when the child's characteristics 
cannot be accurately determined as currently existing in the NPD 
Hence, even though a record from the CIN census has been matched into the NPD (i.e. 
given a pupil ID), it does not necessarily mean that it can be linked to other data in the 
NPD if there is no other information attributed to that pupil ID from other data sources. 
This is particularly relevant for the CIN census as a new child can appear, and therefore 
be matched into the NPD for the first time, before they start school if enough 
characteristic information is available in their CIN record to create a new pupil ID. 

5 
 
Internal matching process 
The matching between the CIN census and the NPD was carried out using the CIN files 
submitted by local authorities in summer 2015. However, these files do not indicate 
whether the children included are ‘in need’. The children in need population is 
subsequently calculated by DfE for the statistical first release (SFR) which was published 
in October 2015. Therefore once the NPD was matched to CIN census files, DfE 
subsequently added an ‘in need’ indicator to this matched file. This ‘in need’ indicator 
excludes cases where: 
a. The referral is flagged as being a referral resulting in no further action in 2014 to 2015; 
or  
b. The only activity recorded was an assessment and the reason for the closure of the 
case being that the case was closed after assessment with no further action.  
Children in need population 
There were 391,000 children in need on the child-level CIN census file with open cases 
at 31 March 2015, but this reduced to 390,100 children in need when duplicates (which 
were identified as errors when the CIN census data was submitted, but approved by local 
authorities) were removed from the file.  
Removing looked after children 
Indicators N1, N2 and N3 of the children’s safeguarding performance information 
framework cover the educational attainment, absence and exclusions of children in need. 
Comparable data is published for looked after children, therefore they were excluded 
from this analysis to focus on other children in need. 
The CIN census was matched to the children looked after (CLA) return (also known as 
SSDA903) using the local authority child ID. This is an ID assigned by the local authority 
for each child which is unique within that local authority and it should be retained from 
year to year. Local authorities use the same child IDs for the CIN and CLA returns which 
allows these datasets to be linked. Children who were looked after at any point during the 
year were removed from the children in need dataset; however the following groups of 
children were retained: 
• children who received only respite care during the year (these are not included in 
the looked after children education statistics). 
• looked after children who were also the subject of a child protection plan 
 

6 
 
The removal of looked after children reduced the children in need dataset from 390,100 
to 319,700. 
Duplicate records in the NPD extract 
There were a very small number of duplicate records in the NPD where the same child 
was listed as taking key stage 4 examinations in different schools. In order to analyse the 
attainment of children in need at key stage 4, only one record could be used. A variable 
on the NPD identifies whether the record was included in the school’s results in the 
performance tables. Cases which were included in the performance tables were selected. 
In the very small number of cases where all duplicate records were used in a school’s 
results, the record with the highest attainment was selected. 
The children in need dataset which had looked after children removed was then matched 
to the NPD extract. This allowed the characteristics, attainment and absence of children 
in need to be analysed. 

7 
 
Data quality 
Overall, 87.9% of school age children in need matched to the NPD. There is much 
variation in matching rates at local authority level, from 11.1% to 100% (see table L1). 
The CIN census was matched to the CLA return to remove looked after children from the 
children in need cohort. The matching rate was 95% and again there was much variation 
between local authorities, from 32% to 100%. CLA information did not match to the CIN 
census for two local authorities, likely due to their management information systems 
assigning different IDs. For these two local authorities and other local authorities where 
the matching rate between the CIN census and the CLA return was low, there are likely 
to be looked after children in the children in need cohort for those local authorities. These 
local authorities are footnoted in table L1.  

8 
 
Analysis 
The analysis used the number of school age (5 to 16 inclusive) children in need at 31 
March 2015, with the exception of exclusions data which used the number of school age 
children in need at 1 April 2014. Exclusions information runs to a much later timetable 
than other information from the NPD (due to the exclusions review process). Therefore 
exclusions information for the 2013 to 2014 academic year was matched to the 2014 to 
2015 CIN census. All children aged 5 to 16 years who were in need at 1 April 2014 were 
identified and exclusions information was provided for the previous year for this cohort. 
National figures have been rounded to the nearest 100. Percentages have been derived 
from unrounded numerators and denominators, but have been rounded to one decimal 
place in the tables. Values between 1 and 5 inclusive have been suppressed and 
replaced with x. Some secondary suppression may have taken place, where necessary, 
to protect confidentiality. 
The following table provides definitions for the numerators and denominators used to 
calculate the percentages in the tables. 
Numerator(s) 
Denominator 
Percentage 
Table L1: Matching rates 
Number of school age 
children in need at 31 
March 2015 in the 
matched CIN-NPD dataset 
Number of school age 
children in need in the CIN 
census at 31 March 2015 
Percentage of school age 
children in need matched to 
the NPD  
Table L2: Special educational needs (SEN) 
Number of school age 
children in need at 31 
March 2015 in the 
matched CIN-NPD dataset 
with: 
-no identified SEN 
-SEN support 
-SEN with a statement or 
EHC plan 
Number of school age 
children in need at 31 
March 2015 in the 
matched CIN-NPD dataset 
with SEN information  
Percentage of school age 
children in need at 31 March 
2015 in the matched CIN-
NPD dataset with: 
-no identified SEN 
-SEN support 
-SEN with a statement or 
EHC plan 
Table L3: Free school meals (FSM) eligibility 
Number of school age 
children in need at 31 
March 2015 in the 
matched CIN-NPD dataset 
and eligible for FSM 
Number of school age 
children in need at 31 
March 2015 in the 
matched CIN-NPD dataset 
with FSM information 
Percentage of school age 
children in need at 31 March 
2015 who were eligible for 
FSM 

9 
 
Numerator(s) 
Denominator 
Percentage 
Table L4: Key stage 2 (KS2) attainment 
Number of school age 
children in need at 31 
March 2015 in the 
matched CIN-NPD dataset 
achieving level 4 or above 
in KS2: 
-Reading 
-Writing (teacher 
assessment) 
-Mathematics 
-Reading, writing and 
mathematics 
-Grammar, punctuation 
and spelling 
Number of school age 
children in need at 31 
March 2015 in the 
matched CIN-NPD dataset 
with KS2 information 
 
Percentage of school age 
children in need at 31 March 
2015 in the matched CIN-
NPD dataset achieving level 
4 or above in KS2: 
-Reading 
-Writing (teacher 
assessment) 
-Mathematics 
-Reading, writing and 
mathematics 
-Grammar, punctuation and 
spelling 
Table L5: Key stage 4 (KS4) attainment 
Number of school age 
children in need at 31 
March 2015 in the 
matched CIN-NPD dataset 
achieving: 
-Any KS4 pass 
-5 A*-G grades 
-5 A*-G grades (inc 
English and mathematics) 
-5 A*-C grades 
-5 A*-C grades (inc English 
and mathematics) 
Number of school age 
children in need at 31 
March 2015 in the 
matched CIN-NPD dataset 
with KS4 information 
 
 
Percentage of school age 
children in need at 31 March 
2015 in the matched CIN-
NPD dataset achieving: 
-Any KS4 pass 
-5 A*-G grades 
-5 A*-G grades (inc English 
and mathematics) 
-5 A*-C grades 
-5 A*-C grades (inc English 
and mathematics) 
 
 

10 
 
Numerator(s) 
Denominator 
Percentage 
Table L6: Progression between key stage 2 (KS2) and key stage 4 (KS4)1 
Number of school age 
children in need at 31 
March 2015 in the 
matched CIN-NPD 
dataset, achieving: 
-two levels of progress in 
English 
-two levels of progress in 
mathematics 
Number of school age 
children in need at 31 
March 2015 in the CIN-
NPD dataset with KS2 and 
KS4 information in: 
-English 
-Mathematics 
Percentage of school age 
children in need at 31 March 
2015 in the matched CIN-
NPD dataset, between KS2 
and KS4 achieving: 
-two levels of progress in 
English 
-two levels of progress in 
mathematics 
 
Table L7: Absence from school in the autumn and spring term 2014/15 
unauthorised / authorised / overall absence levels 
Number of sessions of: 
-unauthorised absence 
-authorised absence 
-overall absence 
for school age children in 
need at 31 March 2015 in 
the matched CIN-NPD 
dataset, during the autumn 
and spring terms of 
2014/15 
Total number of sessions 
for school age children in 
need at 31 March 2015 in 
the matched CIN-NPD 
dataset, with absence 
information in a primary, 
secondary or special 
school in January 2015, 
during the autumn and 
spring terms of 2014/15 
Absence rates for school 
age children in need at 31 
March 2015 for: 
-unauthorised absence 
-authorised absence 
-overall absence 
Persistent absence level2 
Number of school age 
children in need at 31 
March 2015 in the 
matched CIN-NPD dataset 
who were persistent 
absentees 
Number of school age 
children in need at 31 
March 2015 in the 
matched CIN-NPD dataset 
with absence information 
in a primary, secondary or 
special school in January 
2015 
Percentage of school age 
children in need at 31 March 
2015 in the matched CIN-
NPD dataset who were 
persistent absentees 
 
 
                                            
 
1 A full explanation of how expected progress is calculated is included in the 2014 to 2015 GCSE and 
equivalent results provisional publication. 
2  Persistent absentees are defined as having an overall absence rate of around 15 per cent or more. This 
equates to 56 or more sessions of absence (authorised and unauthorised) during the year for pupils aged 
between 5 and 14 and 46 or more sessions of absence (authorised and unauthorised) during the year for 
pupils aged 15. 

11 
 
Numerator(s) 
Denominator 
Percentage 
Table L8: Exclusions in 2013/14 
Number of school age 
children in need at 1 April 
2014 in the matched CIN-
NPD dataset by: 
-number with at least one 
fixed period exclusion 
-number with a permanent 
exclusion 
Number of school age 
children in need at 1 April 
2014 in the matched CIN-
NPD dataset, with 
exclusions information in a 
primary, secondary or 
special school in January 
2015  
Percentage of school age 
children in need at 1 April 
2014 in the matched CIN-
NPD dataset with: 
-at least one fixed period 
exclusion 
-permanent exclusions 
Table L9: Child protection plans 
unauthorised / authorised / overall absence levels 
Number of sessions of: 
-unauthorised absence 
-authorised absence 
-overall absence 
for school age children in 
need at 31 March 2015 
who were also the subject 
of a child protection plan in 
2014-15 in the matched 
CIN-NPD dataset, during 
the autumn and spring 
terms of 2014/15 
Total number of sessions 
for school age children in 
need at 31 March 2015 
who were also the subject 
of a child protection plan in 
2014-15 in the matched 
CIN-NPD dataset, with 
absence information in a 
primary, secondary or 
special school in January 
2015, during the autumn 
and spring terms of 
2014/15 
Absence rates for school 
age children in need at 31 
March 2015 who were the 
subject of a child protection 
plan in 2014-15 for: 
-unauthorised absence 
-authorised absence 
-overall absence 
Persistent absence levels3 
Number of school age 
children in need at 31 
March 2015 in the 
matched CIN-NPD dataset 
who were also the subject 
of a child protection plan in 
2014-15, who were 
persistent absentees 
Number of school age 
children in need at 31 
March 2015 in the 
matched CIN-NPD dataset 
who were also the subject 
of a child protection plan in 
2014-15, with absence 
information in a primary, 
secondary or special 
school in January 2015 
Percentage of children in 
need at 31 March 2015 in 
the matched CIN-NPD 
dataset who were the 
subject of a child protection 
plan, who were persistent 
absentees 
                                            
 
3  Persistent absentees are defined as having an overall absence rate of around 15 per cent or more. This 
equates to 56 or more sessions of absence (authorised and unauthorised) during the year for pupils aged 
between 5 and 14 and 46 or more sessions of absence (authorised and unauthorised) during the year for 
pupils aged 15. 

12 
 
Changes to the tables this year 
Previously, the children in need outcome tables have been published in February and the 
attainment figures have been based on provisional key stage 2 and key stage 4 data, and 
the absence figures were based on 2-term absence rates. This year the tables were 
published in March in order to align the versions of attainment and absence data with 
those used in the outcomes for children looked after SFR. Provisional figures and 2-term 
absence rates have still also been included in the tables this year since there is a break 
in the time series. 

13 
 
Related publications 
Looked after children 
Outcomes for children looked after includes educational attainment, special educational 
needs (SEN), and absence and exclusions from school. Data is published at national and 
local authority level on the outcomes for children who have been looked after 
continuously for at least 12 months at 31 March 2015. 
All children 
Special educational needs in England: January 2015 reports on children with SEN and 
free school meal eligibility. 
Revised key stage 2 results for 2014 to 2015 academic year can be found in revised 
national curriculum assessments at key stage 2 in England. 
Attainment of pupils at key stage 4 along with progression between key stages 2 and 4 
can be found in revised GCSE and equivalent results 2014 to 2015. 
Statistics: pupil absence shows releases reporting levels of overall, authorised and 
unauthorised absence by school type and reason, with summary statistics on persistent 
absentees for both 2 term (autumn and spring) and full year absence. 
Information about exclusions from school can be found in permanent and fixed period 
exclusions from schools in England: 2013 to 2014 academic year.  

14 
 
 
 
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