Annex A – Interim re-conviction figures for Peterborough and Doncaster payment by results pilots
Source: data.gov.uk (2018-05-25)

Proven Re-offending statistics. Key statistics on proven reoffending in England and Wales. It gives proven reoffending figures for offenders who were released from custody, received a non-custodial conviction at court, or received a caution or reprimand.

Annex A 
Interim re-conviction figures for 
Peterborough and Doncaster Payment by 
Results pilots 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ministry of Justice 
Statistics Bulletin 
 
 
 
30 January 2014 

Annex A 
Interim re-conviction figures for Peterborough and 
Doncaster Payment by Results pilots 
 
Background 
 
The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) published “Breaking the Cycle: Effective 
Punishment, Rehabilitation and Sentencing of Offenders” in December 2010. 
This Green Paper included a commitment for the MoJ to commission a series 
of initial ‘payment by results’ (PbR) pilot projects to test the principle that PbR 
can result in service improvements by delivering better outcomes for the 
public at the same or less cost. 
 
The MoJ currently has two prison based PbR pilots operating in HMP 
Peterborough and HMP Doncaster. The Peterborough pilot began on 9 
September 2010 and the Doncaster pilot on 1 October 2011. 
 
There are a number of differences in the design of the two pilots to enable 
different PbR approaches to be tested. These differences (as set out below in 
the methodology section and also in Table A1 of the Appendix) mean that the 
interim figures for the two pilots cannot be directly compared. 
 
The final results for both pilots will be based on a 12 month re-conviction 
measure which counts offences committed in the 12 months following release 
from prison, and resulting in conviction at court either in those 12 months or in 
a further 6 month period (allowing time for cases to progress through the 
courts). As a consequence of this necessary time lag, final results will not be 
available until summer 2014 (for cohort1 1 of both pilots, with final results for 
subsequent cohorts to follow in later years). 
 
However, given the high level of public interest in relation to the reforms set 
out in the MoJ publication “Transforming Rehabilitation – a strategy for 
reform”, the MoJ began publishing interim re-conviction figures for both of 
these pilots from June 2013. This was the earliest opportunity after MoJ 
statisticians judged the number of offenders being reported on to be large 
enough to provide robust interim figures. 
 
These figures are updated in this dedicated annex to each edition of the 
MoJ’s quarterly Proven Re-offending Statistics bulletin. 
                                                 
1 A cohort is the group of offenders included in the pilot, and for whom the reduction in re-convictions will 
be measured. See Table A1 in the Appendix for more details on which offenders are included in the 
cohorts. 
 
 
 
2

Methodology 
 
Offenders enter the PbR pilots after their first eligible release from the prison 
within the cohort period. For Peterborough, cohort 1 closed at the end of the 
month in which the 1000th eligible offender was released. For the purposes of 
this statistical bulletin, cohort 1 is all eligible offenders released between 9 
September 2010 and 1 July 2012. For Doncaster, cohort 1 includes all eligible 
offenders released from 1 October 2011 to 30 September 2012. 
 
Both PbR prison pilots use a 12 month re-conviction measure which differs 
from the National Statistics proven re-offending measure. The key difference 
is that re-convictions only count offences for which the offender was convicted 
at court, whereas the National Statistics proven re-offending measure also 
includes out of court disposals (cautions). However, the time periods used for 
both measures are the same – offences committed within 12 months of 
release from prison and convicted at court (or cautioned for the proven re-
offending measure) either in those 12 months, or in a further 6 month period 
(allowing time for cases to progress through the courts). 
 
There are a number of differences in the design of the two pilots to enable 
different PbR approaches to be tested. The Peterborough pilot includes 
offenders released from custodial sentences of less than 12 months, whereas 
the Doncaster pilot includes all offenders released from custody regardless of 
sentence length. Although both pilots will be assessed using a 12 month re-
conviction measure, the exact measures used are different in the two pilots 
(see the next section, Final re-conviction measures, for more details). 
 
Additionally, there are a number of other differences between the pilots and 
the National Statistics proven re-offending measure in terms of which 
offenders are counted within the cohort. These differences were set out in the 
PbR contracts; see Table A1 in the Appendix for more details. 
 
 
Final (outcome) re-conviction measures for the prison pilots 
 
For Peterborough prison the outcome measure is the frequency of re-
conviction events2 (based on offences committed within 12 months of release 
from prison and convicted at court within those 12 months or a further 6 
month period). This is often referred to as a frequency measure. Success of 
each Peterborough cohort will be determined by comparison with a control 
group (of comparable offenders from across the country), and the results will 
be published separately. 
 
For Doncaster prison the outcome measure is the proportion of offenders 
who commit one or more offences in the 12 months following release from 
prison and are convicted at court in those 12 months or in a further 6 months. 
                                                 
2 If an offender is re-convicted of multiple offences on one sentencing occasion, this counts as one re-
conviction event. 
 
 
 
3

This is often referred to as a binary measure. Success will be determined by 
comparison with the re-conviction rate in the baseline year of 2009. 
 
Interim re-conviction measures for the prison pilots 
 
In publishing these interim figures MoJ aims to give the most useful figures for 
as much of each cohort as possible at each point in time. 
 
Initially, this is done by providing figures based on periods half the length of 
those that will be used for the final results, for an increasing proportion of 
each cohort. These cover offences committed in the 6 months following 
release from prison, and resulting in conviction at court either in those 6 
months or in a further 3 month period (allowing time for cases to progress 
through the courts). 
 
Subsequently, when the data become available, we provide figures based on 
the full period used for the final results: covering offences committed in the 12 
months following release from prison, and resulting in conviction at court 
either in those 12 months or in a further 6 month period, again for an 
increasing proportion of the cohort. 
 
These figures are updated on a quarterly basis. See Table A3 in the Appendix 
for a timeline of the publication of these results. 
 
The figures for Peterborough in this bulletin are 12 month re-conviction 
figures. They cover offenders released in the first 19 months of the cohort 1 
period (the full cohort comprises 22 months). 
 
For Doncaster, the figures presented here show 12 month re-conviction rates 
for the first time. They cover offenders released in the first 6 months of the 
cohort 1 period (the full cohort comprises 12 months). 
 
Interpreting interim re-conviction figures 
 
The interim re-conviction figures presented in this statistical bulletin give an 
indication of progress in the pilots to date. However, care should be taken 
when interpreting these interim figures for the following reasons: 
 
 Figures for both pilots are based on incomplete cohorts; 
 For the Peterborough pilot, success will be determined based on 
comparison with a control group of comparable offenders from across 
the country, which is not available for these interim results; 
Users should therefore be aware that the figures presented provide our best 
assessment of change at this point in time. The final results will be available in 
summer 2014. 
 
 
 
4

Results 
 
Peterborough 
 
The interim figures presented in this statistical bulletin are 12 month re-
conviction figures for offenders released from Peterborough in the first 19 
months of the cohort 1 period (the full cohort comprises 22 months). For 
comparison, we have provided equivalent figures for the five years prior to the 
pilots3. 
 
Success of the Peterborough pilot will be measured against a control group of 
similar offenders released from other prisons, with the target met if the 
frequency of re-conviction events is 10% lower for the Peterborough cohort 
than for the control group. It is not possible to replicate that comparison for 
these interim figures. Instead, in order to provide some context for the 
Peterborough figures, we have provided equivalent national figures for the 
same periods. The national figures are based on other local4 prisons which 
exclude Peterborough and Doncaster. 
                                                 
3 Figures for Sep09-Jun11 overlap with the pilot cohort 1 period itself; therefore they should not be used 
as a baseline for comparison. They have been included in the published figures for transparency. 
4 Since HMP Peterborough is a local prison, the underlying characteristics of the prison and its offenders 
will be more similar to those of local prisons. See Annex D for a definition of local prison. 
 
 
 
5

Table 1 and Figure 1: Peterborough (and national equivalent) interim re-
conviction figures using a partial (19 month) cohort and a 12 month re-
conviction period 
 
Discharge 
Period
No. of 
offenders
Re-conviction 
Rate
Frequency of re-
conviction events 
per 100 ofenders
No. of 
offenders
Re-conviction 
Rate
Frequency of re-
conviction events 
per 100 offenders
Sep05-Mar07
724
56.2%
143
29,358
56.5%
133
Sep06-Mar08
868
56.6%
154
29,373
57.0%
142
Sep07-Mar09
1,030
55.9%
153
32,329
56.9%
146
Sep08-Mar10
980
54.8%
163
32,756
55.3%
146
Sep09-Mar11
845
52.9%
151
30,525
55.8%
155
Sep10-Mar12
844
53.1%
148
29,798
55.7%
160
National
Peterborough
 
 
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Sep05-Mar07
Sep06-Mar08
Sep07-Mar09
Sep08-Mar10
Sep09-Mar11
Sep10-Mar12
Cohort period
Frequency of re-conviction events per 100 
offenders
Peterborough 
National
 
 
Table 1 above shows that for offenders released from Peterborough between 
9 September 2010 and 31 March 2012 (the first 19 months of cohort 1), there 
were an average of 148 re-conviction events per 100 offenders. This 
compares to an average of 163 re-conviction events per 100 offenders 
released from Peterborough between September 2008 and March 2010; a fall 
of 9%. 
 
Nationally, the equivalent figures show a rise of 10% from 146 to 160 re-
conviction events per 100 offenders. 
 
These interim figures show a fall in the frequency of re-conviction events at 
Peterborough while nationally there has been a substantial rise which is our 
best assessment of change at this point in time (see the section Interpreting 
interim re-conviction figures). The final results will be available in summer 
2014. 
 
 
 
6

Doncaster 
 
The interim figures presented in this statistical bulletin are 12 month re-
conviction figures for offenders released from Doncaster in the first 6 months 
of the cohort 1 period (the full cohort comprises 12 months). For comparison, 
we have provided equivalent figures for the five years prior to the pilot and 
equivalent national figures for the same periods. The national figures are 
based on other local5 prisons which exclude Peterborough and Doncaster. 
 
Success of the Doncaster pilot will be measured against a baseline of 
calendar year 2009, with the target met if the re-conviction rate for cohort 1 is 
5 percentage points lower than it was in 2009. 
 
Table 2 and Figure 2: Doncaster (and national equivalent) interim 12-
month re-conviction figures for offenders released in the first 6 months 
of the cohort 1 period 
Discharge Period
No. of 
offenders
Re-conviction 
Rate
No. of 
offenders
Re-conviction 
Rate
Oct06-Mar07
739
59.7%
12,585
56.9%
Oct07-Mar08
636
63.7%
13,868
58.0%
Oct08-Mar09
669
60.1%
14,324
57.0%
Oct09-Mar10
718
57.7%
14,184
55.6%
Oct10-Mar11
675
53.8%
13,712
56.1%
Oct11-Mar12
719
53.8%
13,903
54.1%
Doncaster
National 
 
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Oct06-
Mar07
Oct07-
Mar08
Oct08-
Mar09
Oct09-
Mar10
Oct10-
Mar11
Oct11-
Mar12
Cohort Period
Re-conviction rate
Doncaster
National
 
                                                 
5 Since HMP Doncaster is a local prison, the underlying characteristics of the prison and its offenders 
will be more similar to those of local prisons. See Annex D for a definition of local prison. 
 
 
 
7

Table 2 above shows a 12 month re-conviction rate of 53.8% for offenders 
released from Doncaster between October 2011 and March 2012 (the first 6 
months of cohort 1). 
 
This compares to 60.1% for offenders released between October 2008 and 
March 2009 (a fall of 6.3 percentage points), and 57.7% for those released 
between October 2009 and March 2010 (a fall of 3.8 percentage points). We 
have compared to these figures as they are the closest comparable periods to 
the baseline period of calendar year 2009. 
 
Nationally the equivalent figures show a re-conviction rate of 54.1% for 
offenders released between October 2011 and March 2012. This represents a 
fall of 2.9 percentage points compared with offenders released between 
October 2008 and March 2009 (57.0%) and a fall of 1.5 percentage points 
compared with those released from October 2009 to March 2010 (55.6%). 
 
These interim figures show our best assessment of change at this point in 
time (see the section Interpreting interim re-conviction figures). The final 
results will be available in summer 2014. 
 
 
 
8

Appendix 
 
Table A1: Comparison of PbR re-conviction and National Statistics 
proven re-offending measures 
 
PbR prison pilot re-conviction measures 
 
National 
Statistics 
measure of 
proven re-
offending (for 
any prison) 
Peterborough (cohort 1) 
Doncaster (cohort 1) 
All offenders who 
were discharged 
from custody, 
over a 12 month 
period, 
regardless of 
sentence length. 
Excludes those in 
prison for breach 
Male offenders aged 18 or 
over discharged from 
Peterborough prison between 
9 September 2010 and 1 July 
2012 after serving sentences 
of less than 12 months. 
The cohort 
Differences from National 
Statistics: 
 
Excludes those who 
serve the whole of their 
custodial sentence on 
remand 
 
Excludes foreign national 
offenders recorded as 
having been deported on 
release from prison 
 
Includes those in prison 
for breach 
 
Male offenders aged 18 or 
over discharged from 
Doncaster prison between 1 
October 2011 and 30 
September 2012 regardless 
of sentence length. 
Differences from National 
Statistics: 
 
Excludes those who 
serve the whole of their 
custodial sentence on 
remand 
 
Excludes foreign 
national offenders 
recorded as having been 
deported on release 
from prison 
 
The period to 
measure re-
convictions/re-
offending 
12 months for 
offences to occur 
and a further 6 
months for 
offences to be 
proven (through 
conviction at 
court or a 
caution) 
12 months for offences to 
occur and a further 6 months 
for offences to be re-
convicted 
 
Note: excludes cautions 
12 months for offences to 
occur and a further 6 months 
for offences to be re-
convicted 
 
Note: excludes cautions 
The headline measure 
Proportion of 
offenders who 
commit one or 
more proven re-
offences 
 
Frequency of re-conviction 
events 
Proportion of offenders re-
convicted of one or more 
offences 
What counts 
 
Offences 
committed in the 
12 months 
following release 
from prison, and 
proven by 
conviction at 
court or a caution 
either in those 12 
months or in a 
further 6 months 
Any re-conviction event 
(sentencing occasion) 
relating to offences 
committed in the 12 months 
following release from prison, 
and resulting in conviction at 
court either in those 12 
months or in a further 6 
months 
 
Note: excludes cautions 
 
Offences committed in the 
12 months following release 
from prison, and resulting in 
conviction at court either in 
those 12 months or in a 
further 6 months 
 
Note: excludes cautions 
 
 
 
9

OGRS score data 
 
Re-offending is related to the characteristics of offenders, for example 
offenders with a large number of previous convictions are more likely to re-
offend than those with fewer previous convictions, and changes in re-
conviction rates over time can be related to changes in the mix of offenders 
being worked with rather than a real change in the level of their re-offending. 
 
The Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS)6 is a predictor of re-
offending based on age, gender and criminal history, which are risk factors 
known to be associated with the likelihood of re-offending. OGRS scores 
range from 0 to 1, with a lower score representing a lower likelihood of re-
offending. The scores can be used to compare the relative likelihood of re-
offending either over time or between different groups of offenders, with a 
higher/lower rate meaning a group of offenders who are more/less likely to re-
offend. For example if Offender Group A have an average OGRS score of 
0.44, and Offender Group B have an average OGRS score of 0.58, this 
means that Offender Group A are less likely to re-offend. 
 
Tables A2a and A2b show the average OGRS scores for each of the offender 
groups that are measured in the tables above. These include offenders 
released from Peterborough and Doncaster prisons as well as those for the 
equivalent national groups of offenders. The figures are approximate because 
a small minority of offenders from each group are not included due to some 
data being unavailable. 
 
Table A2a: Peterborough (and national equivalent) OGRS scores for 
offenders released in the first 19 months of the cohort 1 period  
 
Discharge Period
Peterborough
National
Sep05-Mar07
0.50
0.53
Sep06-Mar08
0.50
0.53
Sep07-Mar09
0.50
0.52
Sep08-Mar10
0.50
0.52
Sep09-Mar11
0.48
0.52
Sep10-Mar12
0.49
0.52
Average OGRS score
 
 
                                                 
6 For more details on OGRS see Ministry of Justice Research Summary 7/09 OGRS 3: the revised 
Offender Group Reconviction Scale at: 
webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20110201125714/http:/www.justice.gov.uk/publications/offender-
assessment-system.htm 
 
 
 
10

Table A2b: Doncaster (and national equivalent) OGRS scores for 
offenders released in the first 6 months of the cohort 1 period 
 
Discharge Period
Doncaster
National
Oct06-Mar07
0.56
0.54
Oct07-Mar08
0.59
0.53
Oct08-Mar09
0.58
0.53
Oct09-Mar10
0.56
0.52
Oct10-Mar11
0.57
0.52
Oct11-Mar12
0.54
0.52
Average OGRS score
 
 
Table A3: Timeline for publication of interim re-conviction figures 
 
April 2014 
July 2014 
Peterborough 
12 month re-conviction 
figures for entire cohort 1 (a 
22 month cohort) 
 
Doncaster 
12 month re-conviction 
figures for 9 months of 
cohort 1 
12 month re-conviction 
results for entire cohort 1 
(a 12 month cohort) 
 
 
Table A4: Other information on the pilots 
 
Prison / Area 
Start date of 
pilot 
Length 
of pilot 
Number of 
eligible 
participants for 
Cohort 1  
Number of 
eligible 
participants to 
date for Cohort 2 
Peterborough 
Social Impact 
Bond (SIB)  
9 September 
2010 
Six years 
1,0347  
6608 
HMP Doncaster 
1 October 
2011 
Four 
years 
1,4729 
1,23010 
 
 
 
                                                 
7 Eligible participants from Cohort 1 from 9 September 2010 to 1 July 2012. 
8 Eligible participants from Cohort 2 from 2 July 2012 to 30 September 2013. 
9 Eligible participants from Cohort 1 from 1 October 2011 to 30 September 2012. 
10 Eligible participants from Cohort 2 from 1 October 2012 to 30 September 2013. This is the entire 
Doncaster pilot cohort 2 period, but the figure is provisional at this stage and subject to revision. 
 
 
 
11

 
 
 
12
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