Arctic Research Programme - APPOSITE
Source: environment.data.gov.uk (2018-06-19)

Collection of Multi-model Data from the Arctic Predictability and Prediction On Seasonal-to-Interannual Time-scales (APPOSITE) Project. How feasible is it to predict Arctic climate at seasonal-to-interannual timescales? As part of the APPOSITE project a multi-model ensemble prediction experiment was conducted in order to answer this question.

The main goal of APPOSITE was to quantify the timescales on which Arctic climate is predictable. In order to achieve this, a coordinated set of idealised initial condition predictability experiments with seven general circulation models was conducted. This was the first intercomparison project designed to quantify the predictability of Arctic climate on seasonal to interannual timescales.

Several different coupled climate models performed simulations for APPOSITE (see Doc below for Details of simulations submitted to the APPOSITE database). Six of these models followed the same experimental protocol (see Doc below for Control Simulations details and for Ensemble Predictions). One model, CanCM4 followed a slightly different protocol.

The Model data output from the APPOSITE project are now archived at CEDA. The collection of model outputs (control and prediction) include data from:

- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CanCM4)
- ECHAM6-FESOM (E6F), run and developed by the Alfred Wegener Institute.
- EC-Earth consortium (ec-earth_v2_3)  
- Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (gfdlcm3)  
- Met Office (hadgem1-2)  
- Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC5-2)  
- Max-Planck-Institut for Meteorologie (mpiesm)

Although designed to address Arctic predictability, this data set could also be used to assess the predictability of other regions and modes of climate variability on these timescales, such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation.

A paper describing the simulations for APPOSITE is in preparation to be submitted to the Geoscientific Model Development Journal.

Note: These data do not correspond to a particular time period since the studies are all conducted in the model world. They are not predictions or attempts to simulate a particular period of time. So the dates in the files are completely arbitrary.

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Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal to Inter-annual Timescales (APPOSITE)

To what extent is it possible to predict changes in the Arctic environment, and how is this best done? Predicting the Arctic environment in the short and medium term would be useful to numerous groups of people, including local policymakers, indigenous populations and decisionmakers around the world trying to understand the impact of changes in the Arctic on their regions. Given the significant effects of high-latitude climate on mid- and lower latitudes, the ability to make confident predictions of developments in the high North is highly desirable.

But how attainable is this goal? A wide range of observation systems are needed to monitor Arctic climate, and sophisticated modelling work is required to process this information and extract useful predictions. Before committing to such a costly and complex programme, APPOSITE aims to investigate how feasible it actually is to predict Arctic climate.

APPOSITE

How feasible is it to predict the changes being seen in the Arctic? The APPOSITE team aims to find out using sophisticated computer models and develop better predictive capabilities.

Alert, Nunavut

Principal Investigator Dr Ed Hawkins and his team will use a suite of sophisticated models to examine various aspects of Arctic climate and related processes for their predictability. They will also investigate what mechanisms cause this predictability and how far into the future this allows reliable forecasts to be made.

The results of the APPOSITE project will form a key part of the future development of seasonal to inter-annual forecast systems both nationally and internationally. The UK Met Office will also immediately benefit from this research, which will feed into their forecasting systems.

Image credits: British Antarctic Survey. Main image: A grounded iceberg; Carousel images: RRS James Clark Ross in action.

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Dr Ed Hawkins, Lead Investigator

Dr Ed Hawkins is a climate scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading. His research focusses on modelling changes in the Earth’s climate system using sophisticated Global Climate Models (GCM).

In particular, he is interested in the uncertainty arising from our imperfect understanding of the Earth system and how this affects predictions and forecasts for future climatic change. The processes governing Earth’s climate on the largest scales, such as global oceanic circulations and the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, are not yet perfectly understood. This means that a variety of scenarios have to be considered for future climatic change, and attempting to quantify and reduce uncertainty helps improve our forecasts and evaluate the risks we face. Ed has contributed to the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change’s (IPCC) 5th assessment report and writes a blog about his research (http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/).

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