Research report: Theory of Change-DCMS contribution to the opportunity mission
Source: gov.uk (2025-07-10)

An evidence review considering how DCMS contributes to the Opportunity Mission and the development of a Theory of Change to understand these mechanisms.

The Department for Culture Media and Sport (DCMS) commissioned Ipsos to develop a Theory of Change (ToC) underpinned by a robust evidence review that explores the department’s contribution to the Opportunity mission.

A ToC is a narrative of how and why a project, programme or intervention will achieve its desired outcomes. It includes the links between the intervention’s activities and its outcomes, why the intervention was needed and why the intervention added value. It will also test the evidence base for the underlying beliefs about how a project will work, the people involved and the context.

The report looks at the impact of DCMS sector interventions on breaking down barriers to opportunity and how these could be improved, specifically:
- identifying what impact DCMS sector interventions have on the primary and intermediate outcomes for opportunity and the extent to which this varies between sub-populations
- exploring what DCMS sector interventions and programmes are likely to offer the best value for money when driving opportunity
- considering how DCMS sector interventions and programmes can best address barriers and build upon facilitators to enable opportunity
- considering the extent to which DCMS sector interventions can support (1) children and young people with special educational needs and disabilities; (2) women and girls; (3) ethnic minorities; (4) lower socioeconomic groups; and (5) disadvantaged regions
Key findings
- Sustained participation is central to the realisation of positive outcomes conducive to the Opportunity mission. The benefits that flow from DCMS sector programmes, in any outcome area, cannot occur in the absence of sustained participation irrespective of whether the other foundations for the sector are in place.
- Programmes across sport, civil society and culture and creative industries can support the Opportunity mission, often in similar ways. Although each DCMS sector can and does contribute uniquely to the mission, there is greater commonality than difference across sectors, at least with respect to the core effects that participation can have. This suggests there is not a need to prioritise any one sector on an overarching basis in the context of the mission, but rather to focus on meeting local and group interests and addressing gaps in provision.
- A healthy supply of culture, sport and other youth programmes is a precondition for capturing the target outcomes. Any absence of provision can create structural barriers to participation within a local area which block progression to improved health and education outcomes (reducing intergenerational persistence and promoting social mobility).
- This review found a strong link between participation in DCMS sectors and health and wellbeing, education outcomes, individual skills and knowledge outcomes, and attitudes, beliefs and values outcomes.
- This review found a moderate link between DCMS sectors and civic impacts and a limited and weak directly causal link between employment outcomes. This does not, however, disprove an association.