Proven Reoffending Statistics Quarterly Bulletin, October 2015 to December 2015
Source: data.gov.uk (2018-05-25)

Proven Re-offending statistics. Key statistics on proven reoffending in England and Wales. It gives proven reoffending figures for offenders who were released from custody, received a non-custodial conviction at court, or received a caution or reprimand.

1 
 
 
 
 
Published 26 October 2017 
 
Proven Reoffending Statistics Quarterly Bulletin, 
October 2015 to December 2015  
Main points 
This bulletin provides key statistics on Proven Reoffending for adult and juvenile offenders 
who were released from custody, received a non-custodial conviction at court, or received a 
caution in the period October to December 2015. This is the first publication of proven 
reoffending statistics based on the new methodology, as announced in ‘Response to 
consultation on changes to proven reoffending statistics’ in April 2016 and previous 
publications. The main changes to the methodology are: 
 
Changing to a three month cohort instead of the previous 12 month cohort. 
The publication reports on offenders who are released from custody, received a 
non-custodial conviction at court, or received a caution within a three month 
period, for all measures of reoffending, including for juveniles.  
 
 
Production of adjusted reoffending rates for adults (alongside the raw rates), 
using the Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS4/G) to take account of the 
influence that differences in offender mix can have on the binary reoffending 
rates.  
 
 
A change from calendar year to financial year for annual figures. Annual 
figures are formed by taking a weighted average of the four preceding 3 month 
offender cohorts. Figures for the 2015/16 financial year will be published in 
January 2018. 
In addition the data source used to compile the statistics has changed from October 2015 
following probation services reforms. For more information on the impact of these changes 
please see ‘How the measure of proven reoffending has changed and the effect of these 
changes’. 
This bulletin, associated tables and data tools present the proportion of offenders who 
reoffend (proven reoffending rate) and the number of proven reoffences by offender history, 
demographics, individual prisons, probation area, local authorities and youth offending 
teams. For technical details and more information on how the measurement of proven 
reoffending has changed please refer to the accompanying guide to proven reoffending 
statistics. This bulletin also contains the number of Serious Further offences (Annex A). 
 
For any feedback related to the content of this publication, please let us know at 
xxx@xxx.xx 

 
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How is proven reoffending measured? 
 
An offender enters the cohort if they are released from custody, received a non-custodial 
conviction at court or received a reprimand or warning in a three month period: October 
2015 to December 2015. It is important to note that this is not comparable to previous 
proven reoffending publications which reported on a 12 month cohort.  
 
A proven reoffence is defined as any offence committed in a one year follow-up period that 
leads to a court conviction, caution, reprimand or warning in the one year follow-up or within 
a further six month waiting period to allow the offence to be proven in court as shown in the 
diagram below.  
 
 
The change from 12 month offender cohorts to 3 month offender cohorts’ results in a 
greater proportion of prolific offenders and therefore an increase in the reoffending rate of 
around 4-5 percentage points for both adults and juveniles. The change in data source in 
October 2015 also introduces potential variability. Therefore users should be cautious when 
making any comparison between the October to December 2015 cohort and earlier cohorts. 
For further details on this, and how proven reoffending is measured, please see the guide to 
proven reoffending statistics and ‘How the measure of proven reoffending has changed and 
the effect of these changes’. 
 
01-Oct-15
31-Dec-15
31-Mar-16
30-Jun-16
01-Oct-16
31-Dec-16
31-Mar-17
30-Jun-17
First offender
enters cohort
One year period in which 
reoffences are measured 
Last offender 
enters cohort
We report on the offences that lead to 
a court conviction, caution, reprimand 
or warning within the year 
OR within a further 
six months to allow 
the offence to be
proven in court
Offender enters cohort in 
three month period

 
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1. Overall – adult and juvenile offenders  
29.6% of offenders in the October to December 2015 cohort reoffended within a year 
 
In October to December 2015 around 130,000 adult and juvenile offenders were 
cautioned1, received a non-custodial conviction at court or released from custody. 
Around 39,000 of these offenders committed a proven re-offence within a year. This 
gives an overall proven reoffending rate of 29.6%.  
Over time the overall proven reoffending rate has fluctuated around 29% to 32%.  
Figure 1: Proportion of adult and juvenile offenders in England and Wales who 
commit a proven re-offence, April 2005 to December 20152 (Source: Table A1) 
 
Around 148,000 proven reoffences were committed over the one year follow-up period, with 
those that reoffended committing, on average, 3.83 reoffences each. The average number 
of reoffences per reoffender has gradually increased since 2009 and is the highest since 
2005. 
In the October to December 2015 cohort, 83% were male and 17% were female, a split that 
has changed little since 2005. Male offenders reoffended at a higher rate of 30.9% 
compared to female offenders who reoffended at a rate of 23.4%. Both rates have remained 
broadly stable since 2005. 
                                               
1 Includes reprimands and warnings for juveniles.  
2 Data in the chart is based on financial years, therefore Q1= April-June, Q2 = July-September, Q3 = October-
December and Q4 = January-March. 
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
 0
 20
 40
 60
 80
 100
 120
 140
 160
 180
2005/6
2006/7
2007/8
2008/9
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16
Proportion of offenders who reoffend (%)
Number of offenders in cohort ('000s)
Cohort
Adult Q1
Juvenile Q1
Adult Q2
Juvenile Q2
Adult Q3
Juvenile Q3
Adult Q4
Juvenile Q4
Adult proportion who re-offend (%)
Juvenile proportion who re-offend (%)
Change of data source for
Oct-Dec 2015 cohort
Change of data source 
for Oct-Dec 2015 
cohort

 
4 
 
2. Adult offenders 
28.7% of adult offenders in the October to December 2015 cohort reoffended within 
a year  
 
Adult offenders accounted for 93% (around 121,000) of the October to December 2015 
cohort and juvenile offenders accounted for 7% (around 9,000)3. Around 35,000 of all 
adult offenders were proven to have committed a reoffence within a year, giving a 
proven reoffending rate of 28.7%. 
Figure 2: Proportion of adult offenders in England and Wales who commit a proven 
reoffence, by number of previous offences, October to December 2015 (Source: Table 
A5a)  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
As noted previously there is a change in data source in October 2015 and therefore users 
should remain cautious when comparing the latest quarter with results from previous 
quarters. However, the adult reoffending rate has remained broadly flat since 2005 
fluctuating between 28% and 31%.  
Around 132,000 proven reoffences were committed by adults over the one year follow-up 
period. Those that reoffended committed on average 3.82 reoffences each.  
Generally, offenders with a large number of previous offences have a higher rate of proven 
reoffending than those with fewer previous offences. In the cohort, the proven reoffending 
rates for adults ranged from 7.3% for offenders with no previous offences to 50.0% for 
offenders with 11 or more previous offences. Adult offenders with 11 or more previous 
offences made up 38% of all adult offenders in the cohort, but committed over 75% of all 
adult proven reoffences.  
                                               
3 A certain proportion of offenders who could not be matched to the Police National Computer (PNC) are 
excluded from the offender cohort. Therefore, this number does not represent all proven offenders. This means 
that the number of offenders in this bulletin will be different from the numbers published in Offender 
Management Statistics Quarterly and Criminal Justice Statistics. Please refer to the guide to proven reoffending 
statistics for further information.  
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
No previous
offences
1 to 2 previous
offences
3 to 6 previous
offences
7 to 10 previous
offences
11 or more
previous offences
Proportion of offenders who reoffend (%)
Previous offence band
October to December 2015

 
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3. Adjusted reoffending rates 
When controlling for offender characteristics 28.4% of adult offenders in the 
October to December 2015 cohort reoffended within a year  
 
For the first time adjusted proven reoffending rates for adults are published, using the 
Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS4/G). OGRS4 is based on a well-
established, peer reviewed methodology for assessing and representing reoffending 
risk4. The raw rates have been adjusted to the 2011 calendar year, in line with the 
Payment by Result statistics.  
Figure 3: The average OGRS scores (2011 adjusted) and the adjusted proven 
reoffending rate for adults, April 2005 to December 2015 (Source: Table A1)  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Between 2005 and 2011 the average OGRS score increased, but since 2011 it has 
remained broadly flat. This indicates that between 2005 and 2011 the cohort had an 
increasing propensity to reoffend, but since 2011 this has since levelled off.  As a result 
the raw reoffending rate for adults are adjusted upwards between 2005 and 2011 
reflecting the cohort having a greater propensity to reoffend.  
Since 2011 the raw rates and the adjusted rates have tracked each other more closely. 
For example, the raw reoffending rate for adults for the October to December 2015 
period was 28.7%, but the adjusted rate was 28.4%.  
This suggests that while raw reoffending rates have remained broadly flat since 2005 the 
adjusted rates have shown a decreasing trend to reflect the greater propensity to 
reoffend of cohorts over this time. 
                                               
4www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/449357/research-analysis-offender-
assessment-system.pdf 
 
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2005/6
2006/7
2007/8
2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16
Adjusted proportion of offenders who reoffend 
(%)
Average OGRS4/G score
Average OGRS4/G score
Adjusted 2011 proportion of reoffenders (%)
Adult proportion who re-offend (%)
Change of data source for
Oct-Dec 2015 cohort

 
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4. Juvenile offenders5 
Figure 4: Proportion of adult and juvenile offenders in England and Wales who 
commit a proven reoffence, by age, October to December 2015 (Source: Table A3)  
 
 
Around 15,000 proven reoffences were committed by juveniles over the one year follow-up 
period. Those that reoffended committed on average 3.88 reoffences each, the highest rate 
since 2005. Juvenile offenders with 11 or more previous offences had a higher reoffending 
rate than those with no previous offences –77.1% compared to 24.1%. 
Offenders aged 10 to 14 had the highest reoffending rate of any age group, with a 
reoffending rate of 42.3%. However, the number of offenders in this age group has fallen by 
around 85% since 2005. The reoffending rate for this age group overtook offenders aged 15 
to 17 in 2013/14, who previously had a consistently higher reoffending rate but are now 
second highest. Figure 4 shows that the proven reoffending rate generally falls with 
increasing age. 
                                               
5 Juveniles are defined as those aged 10 to 17 years old. 
41.8% of juvenile offenders in the October to December 2015 cohort reoffended within 
one year  
 
Around 9,000 juvenile offenders were cautioned, convicted or released from custody in 
the October to December 2015 cohort and around 4,000 of them committed a 
reoffence. This gives a proven reoffending rate of 41.8%.   
Since 2005, the reoffending rate has increased by around 3-4 percentage points, but 
the size of the cohort has fallen by around 80% over the same period. 
Adult
Juvenile
0
10
20
30
40
50
10 to 14 15 to 17 18 to 20 21 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49
50+
Proportion of offenders who reoffend (%)
Age

 
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5. Index disposal6 - adults 
Figure 5: Proportion of adult offenders released from custody who commit a proven 
reoffence, by custodial sentence length, April 2005 to December 2015 (Source: Table 
C2a) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
For adult offenders starting a court order (Community sentence or Suspended Sentence 
Order) the proven reoffending rate was 33.9%. The rate for this group has declined since 
2005 by around 3-5 percentage points.  
The proven reoffending rate for adult offenders released from custody was 49.2%. The 
effect of changing data source in October 2015 is concentrated among offenders 
discharged from custody, particularly among the less than 12 months custodial sentence 
length group. This might be connected to the introduction of statutory supervision for this 
group and further investigation is ongoing.  
The rate for those released from short sentences has been consistently higher compared to 
those released from longer sentences. Adults who served sentences of less than 12 months 
reoffended at a rate of 65.5%, compared to 29.9% for those who served determinate 
sentences of 12 months or more. The trend for adults released from custodial sentences of 
12 months or more has been decreasing since 2010.  
                                               
6 Proven reoffending rates by index disposal should not be compared to assess the effectiveness of sentences, 
as there is no control for known differences in offender characteristics and the type of sentence given. For further 
information see Annex D of the October 2016 publication (page 41) and the guide to proven reoffending 
statistics. 
 
Adults released from custody or starting court orders had a proven reoffending 
rate of 38.1% 
The index disposal of the offender is the type of sentence the offender received for their 
index offence. For Proven Reoffending Statistics this is defined as custody, court order, or 
other disposal resulting from a conviction at court, such as a fine or discharge, or caution. 
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Proportion of offenders who reoffend (%)
Cohort
Less than 12 months
12 months to less than 4 years
4 years to 10 years
More than 10 years
Change of data source for
Oct-Dec 2015 cohort

 
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6. Index disposal – juveniles  
 
Figure 6: Proportion of juvenile offenders released from custody or given a 
reprimand, warning or caution who commit a proven reoffence, April 2005 to 
December 2015 (Source: Table C1b) 
 
Between October and December 2015, 231 juvenile offenders were released from custody 
and 150 of these (64.9%) were proven to have committed a reoffence within a year. This 
represents a fall of approximately 9-11 percentage points since 2005.  
 
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Proportion of offenders who reoffend (%)
Cohort
Reprimand, Warning or Caution
Custody
Proven reoffending rates by index disposal (sentence type) 
should not be compared to assess the effectiveness of 
sentences, as there is no control for known differences in 
offender characteristics and the type of sentence given. 
Change of data source for
Oct-Dec 2015 cohort
Juvenile offenders given youth caution had a proven reoffending rate of 30.4% 
The reoffending rate for juvenile offenders given a youth caution was 30.4%. This has 
remained broadly flat since 2013, but has increased by around 3-4 percentage points 
since 2005. Reprimands and warnings for youths were abolished under Legal Aid 
Sentencing and Punishment of Offenders Act 2012 with effect from 8 April 2013 and 
replaced with youth cautions.  
 
Youth cautions are a formal out-of-court disposal that can be used as an alternative to 
prosecution for juvenile offenders in certain circumstances. A Youth Caution may be 
given for any offence where the young offender admits an offence, there is sufficient 
evidence for a realistic prospect of conviction but it is not in the public interest to 
prosecute. 
 

 
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7. Index offences  
In the October to December 2015 cohort, adult offenders with an index offence of 
‘Theft’ had the highest reoffending rate at 50.8% 
 
The offence that leads to an offender being included in the offender cohort is called the 
index offence. In the October to December 2015 cohort, adult offenders with an index 
offence of ‘Theft’ had the highest proven reoffending rate of 50.8%. The second highest 
reoffending rate for adult offenders was for those with an index offence of ‘Public Order’ 
with a rate of 36.2%. 
 
Figure 7: Proportion of adult and juvenile offenders in England and Wales who 
commit a proven reoffence, by index offence, October 2015 to December 2015 
(Source: Table A4a/b) 
With the exception of index offences recorded as ‘Other’, those with the lowest rate of 
reoffending in the adult cohort had an index offence of ‘Fraud’ – reoffending at a rate of 
11.4%. Additionally, the ‘Fraud’ index offence category saw the largest decrease and those 
with an index offence of ‘Violence against the Person’ saw the biggest increase since 2005.  
 
In the juvenile cohort those with an index offence of ‘Miscellaneous Crimes Against Society’ 
had the highest proven reoffending rate at 54.2%, closely followed by those with an index 
offence of ‘Public Order’ at 50.0%. Those with the lowest rate had a ‘Sexual’ index offence 
and reoffended at a rate of 11.5%. 
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Theft
Public Order
Robbery
Miscellaneous Crimes
Against Society
Possession of Weapons
Violence Against the
Person
Drug
Criminal Damage and
Arson
Summary Non-motoring
Summary Motoring
Sexual
Fraud
Proportion of offenders who reoffend (%)
Index offence
Adult
Juvenile

 
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8. Annex A: Serious Further Offences  
 
This section provides management information on the total number of Serious Further 
Offences (SFOs) as collected from the SFO Review Process. This is an update to the 
information that was published in the annual proven reoffending publication, which was 
published on 27 October 2016 and covered the period 2014/15.  
 
Since 1 December 2008, an SFO review will be triggered when an offender is charged with 
an offence listed in Schedule 15a to the Criminal Justice Act 2003, alleged to have been 
committed within the probation supervision period or within 28 working days of the supervision 
period terminating.  
 
Mandatory SFO reviews are triggered in the following circumstances:  
 
 
any eligible offender who has been charged with one of the most serious SFOs – 
murder, manslaughter, other offence causing death, rape, assault by penetration or a 
sexual offence against a child under 13 years (including attempted offences); and, 
 
 
any eligible offender who has been charged with another offence on the SFO list and 
is or has been assessed as high/very high risk of serious harm during their current 
supervision period or has not been subject to a risk assessment during that period. 
 
A review may be carried out on a discretionary basis in the following circumstances: 
 
 
Any eligible offender who has been charged with an offence, irrespective of whether 
that offence is a qualifying offence, and the National Offender Management Service 
(NOMS) and the supervising probation provider have identified public-interest reasons 
for conducting a review. 
  
Users should refer to the ‘2012 Compendium of Reoffending Statistics and Analysis’ for 
further definitions of the terms used in this notice, and for commentary to help interpret these.  
 
Care must be taken when interpreting the figures in 2015/16, as a number of cases where 
offenders have been charged with a qualifying SFO have not concluded their course through 
the judicial system. 
 
The table in this statistical notice provides the numbers of SFO notifications under the 
Probation SFO Review Process which resulted in a conviction for a serious further offence 
between 2010/11 and 2015/16. The table reflects the number of offenders who received an 
SFO notification up to 2015/16 and who were subsequently convicted of an SFO, up to 15 
September 2017. Some offenders are eventually convicted of offences lesser than the 
offences with which they were charged and which triggered the SFO notification.  
 
 
 

 
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Table 1: SFO notifications received under the HMPPS SFO Review Process which 
resulted in a conviction for England and Wales, 2010/11 to 2015/16. 
Type of Offence 
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
 
2014/15
 
2015/20167
Murder 
50 
67 
50 
59 
 
43 
 
36 
Attempted Murder  
12 
13 
16 
15 
 
14 
 
20 
Manslaughter 
18 
15 
16 
23 
 
12 
 
15 
Rape/assault by penetration 
103 
76 
90 
80 
 
89 
 
88 
Arson with Intent to endanger life 
8 
8 
7 
10 
 
9 
 
9 
Kidnapping/Abduction/False imprisonment  
2 
14 
16 
19 
 
21 
 
7 
Attempted Kidnapping/Abduction 
0 
0 
0 
0 
 
0 
 
0 
Other serious sexual or violent offences8 
67 
60 
74 
69 
 
65 
 
69 
All SFO convictions 
260 
253 
269 
275 
 
253 
 
244 
Offences which did not meet the SFO 
criteria9 
66 
55 
65 
71 
 
84 
 
67 
All Convictions 
326 
308 
334 
346 
 
337 
 
311 
 
 
 
                                               
7 Provisional figures subject to change as outstanding cases are completed. 
8 Any other serious violent or sexual offence which carries a maximum custodial penalty of more than 10 years. 
9 Offenders who had been charged with an offence which met the SFO criteria, but were convicted of a less 
serious offence. 

 
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Further information 
 
Accompanying files 
As well as this bulletin, the following products are published as part of this release: 
 
A technical guide to proven reoffending statistics providing information on how 
proven reoffending is measured, and the data sources used. 
 
A set of overview tables, covering each section of this bulletin. 
 
A number of data tools which provide proven reoffending data by demographics, 
offender history, individual prisons (available from January 2005 – September 2015) 
and probation area and geography. 
 
The impact of community-based drug and alcohol treatment on re-offending  
This experimental statistical report contains initial findings from a project that has linked 
data from the National Drug Treatment Monitoring System (NDTMS) held by Public Health 
England (PHE) with data on offenders held by the Ministry of Justice (MoJ). 
The aim of this report is to improve the evidence base of the links between community-
based treatment for substance misuse and changes in reoffending. This report contains 
initial findings from analysing the final matched dataset to support policy development and is 
intended to demonstrate the potential utility in linking treatment and offending data. 
This is joint publication from Public Health England (PHE) and the Ministry of Justice (MoJ). 
 
National Statistics status 
National Statistics status means that official statistics meet the highest standards of 
trustworthiness, quality and public value. 
All official statistics should comply with all aspects of the Code of Practice for Official 
Statistics. They are awarded National Statistics status following an assessment by the 
Authority’s regulatory arm. The Authority considers whether the statistics meet the highest 
standards of Code compliance, including the value they add to public decisions and 
debate. 
It is the Ministry of Justice’s responsibility to maintain compliance with the standards 
expected for National Statistics. If we become concerned about whether these statistics are 
still meeting the appropriate standards, we will discuss any concerns with the Authority 
promptly. National Statistics status can be removed at any point when the highest standards 
are not maintained, and reinstated when standards are restored. 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
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Contact 
Press enquiries should be directed to the Ministry of Justice press office: 
Tel: xx-xxxx-xxxx 
Email: xxx@xxx.xx  
Other enquiries about these statistics should be directed to the Justice Statistics Analytical 
Services division of the Ministry of Justice: 
Nick Mavron, Head of Prison, Probation, Reoffending and PbR Statistics 
Ministry of Justice, 7th Floor, 102 Petty France, London, SW1H 9AJ 
Email: xxx@xxx.xx 
 
Next update: January 2018 
URL: www.gov.uk/government/collections/proven-reoffending-statistics 
 
 
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Alternative formats are available on request from xxx@xxx.xx