The Zen 3 eBay/StockX Market - Now Just A Normal Market
Tags: python, datascience, analytics
Published: 2021-08-09 13:52:23

Source Code for Data Scraping: https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper

It has been over six months since my last series of articles and it's time for an update on the eBay/StockX market for Zen 3, Big Navi, Ampere, and the PS5/Xbox. I'll be posting an article each day with how the markets have changed.

* CPUs: Zen 3 
* Consoles: [Xbox Series S/X & PS5](https://dev.to/driscoll42/ps5-xbox-ebay-stockx-scalping-market-over-half-a-million-sold-for-104-million-in-scalper-profits-bbo)
* GPUs: RTX 30 Series & Big Navi
     * Will be next week to allow for additional analysis

Highlights:
* 30,254 Zen 3 CPUs sold on eBay and StockX 
* $18.29 million in sales on eBay/StockX, with $410k in profits for sellers and $1.74 million in profits for eBay/StockX/PayPal
* Prices are now at or below MSRP

The Zen 3 market on eBay and StockX is now almost boring, which is a wonderful thing. Gone are the days of last year where it was impossible to get a Zen 3 CPU for 1.4-2.4x its retail price. Now you can buy one at MSRP easily, and a used one for less than MSRP. At time of writing, the 5800X sells for $366, 82% of its MSRP, and even the 5950X is selling for 98% of it's MSRP at $780. Further if I go to Newegg, one can easily buy any of the CPUs on sale even. The exception to this are the new Zen 3 APUs, the 5300G, 5600G, and 5700G, but even they are only going for 3-15% over MSRP and I expect will drop to normal as soon as they are easily sold. 

The story of the price drops on eBay is primarily the story of Antonline's pricing. On March 17, Antonline sold over 1000 5600X's in less than two weeks at $321, and has steadily been dropping prices every few weeks, in late May to $297 selling another 500, and more recently in July to $270, less than MSRP, presumably to clear stock. A similar story plays out for the 5900X, most dramatically on May 6 where Antonline made it available for $585 and sold over 600 CPUs, and they also made the 5950X available for $879 and sold over 700 CPUs in a week. Antonline sets a maximum on eBay for pricing and by now it's unprofitable to scalp Zen 3 CPUs

![Zen 3 Median Pricing - % MSRP](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/Zen%203%20Median%20Pricing%20-%20%25%20MSRP.png)

* [Zen 3 Median Pricing in Raw Dollars](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/Zen%203%20Median%20Pricing%20-%20%24.png)
* [Zen 3 Median Pricing - % MSRP - 7 Day Rolling Average](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/Zen%203%20Median%20Pricing%207%20Day%20Rolling%20Average%20-%20%25%20MSRP.png)
* [Zen 3 Median Pricing in Raw Dollars - 7 Day Rolling Average](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/Zen%203%20Median%20Pricing%207%20Day%20Rolling%20Average%20-%20%24.png)

CPU Graph | MSRP| Total Sold | Median Price | Past Week Median Price | Casual Scalper Break Even | Sophisticated Scalper Break Even | Total Sales | Estimated Scalper Profits | Estimated eBay/PayPal Profits
---|---|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----
[5300G](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/5300G.png)|$150|7|$304|No Sales|$153 |$188 |$2,168 |$740 |$281 
[5600G](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/5600G.png)|$259 |72 |$379 |$300 |$263 |$321 |$26,571 |$3,974 |$2,427 
[5700G](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/5700G.png)|$359 |71 |$515 |$370 |$365 |$448 |$37,083 |$4,876 |$4,415 
[5600X](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/5600X.png)|$299 |9,386 |$1,034 |$265 |$304 |$375 |$3,280,583 |-$178,286|$295,115 
[5800X](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/5800X.png)|$449 |7,000 |$730 |$366 |$457 |$558 |$3,229,732 |-$474,869|$299,452 
[5900X](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/5900X.png)|$549 |6,533 |$323 |$530 |$558 |$681 |$4,824,243 |$487,347 |$451,065 
[5950X](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/5950X.png)|$799 |4,942 |$422 |$780 |$812 |$987 |$5,093,480 |$364,251 |$475,499 
Total|N/A |28,011 |N/A |N/A |N/A |N/A | $16,493,861 |$208,033 	|$1,528,254 

StockX's market trends largely mirror eBay's, just vastly smaller, only 8% the quantity sold and 10% in revenue, and slightly cheaper, ~3% cheaper in the past week except the 5600X which is 8% cheaper. By this point it is also unprofitable to scalp on StockX, unless one is trying to resell an old CPU to upgrade.

CPU|Total Sold|Average Sales Price|Last Week Average Price| Total Sales Volume | Estimated StockX Profits | Estimated Scalper Profits
---|---|---|---|---|---|---
5600X|98|$307|$245|$30,086|$3,610|-$2,826
5800X|115|$393|$354|$45,195|$5,423|-$11,863
5900X|1291|$750|$539|$968,250|$116,190|$143,301
5950X|739|$1,022|$759|$755,258|$90,631|$74,166
Total|2,243|N/A|N/A|$1,798,789|$215,855|$202,777

![5800X Cumulative Sales/Profits](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/5800X%20Cumulative%20Plots.png)

* [5600X Cumulative Sales/Profits](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/5600X%20Cumulative%20Plots.png)
* [5800X Cumulative Sales/Profits](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/5800X%20Cumulative%20Plots.png)
* [5900X Cumulative Sales/Profits](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/5900X%20Cumulative%20Plots.png)
* [5950X Cumulative Sales/Profits](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/5950X%20Cumulative%20Plots.png)
* [5300G Cumulative Sales/Profits](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/5300G%20Cumulative%20Plots.png)
* [5600G Cumulative Sales/Profits](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/5600G%20Cumulative%20Plots.png)
* [5700G Cumulative Sales/Profits](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/5700G%20Cumulative%20Plots.png)

Plotting the Sales dollars over time, it is clear to see whenever there was a massive drop of stock on eBay as the total sales spikes high, also whenever the 5800X drops below some threshold (e.g. $500, $450, $500, etc...) that triggers a number of buyers. The real standout is the 5950X where Antonline saw $300,000 in revenue in a single day from making several hundred 5950X's for sale at once.

![Zen 3 Seller Quantity Sold](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/Zen%203%20eBay%20Seller%20Sales%20vs%20Total%20Sold.png) 

Taking a look again at who is selling the CPUs on eBay, by now it is clearly a few dominant players, mostly Antonline and Best Buy, who own the market, with 52% of CPUs sold by sellers who have sold over 50 CPUs. 31% of CPUs are still sold by sellers with <5 sales, but as the market normalizes, it'll be mostly the big retailers.

![Zen 3 Seller Feedback](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/blob/master/2108-Images/Zen%203%20eBay%20Seller%20Feedback%20vs%20Quantity%20Sold.png?raw=true)

I have mostly filtered out the suspicious sellers now entirely, so very few have almost no feedback, but as before the plot is dominated by the two stores at the far end, though some other stores with less feedback even out the curve some.

I have opted not to get pricing on various other CPUs as I did last time primarily due to the increase in manual labor to scrape eBay now.