Reasons Behind the Open Letter on the Temporary Suspension of AI Training
Tags: ai, news, gpt3, openai
Published: 2023-04-18 15:16:34

Elon Musk and more than 5500 people (as of press time), including AI experts, have signed an open letter calling for a pause in advanced AI development.

The letter, issued by the Future of Life Institute, asks AI labs to stop training on any technology more powerful than OpenAI's GPT-4. The letter warns: this could "represent a major change in the history of life on Earth."

Prominent AI researchers and tech leaders such as Elon Musk, are unanimous in asking AI labs to temporarily stop training AI systems for at least 6 months.

This pause is meant to establish protocols on safety and ethical issues. If a voluntary pause cannot be enforced, they suggest government intervention is necessary.

In the open letter, several concerns were expressed, especially that AI systems are becoming so competitive with humans.

With the rapid development of AI systems as it is now, the concern that AI will take over jobs, be used to spread propaganda, and outsmart and replace humans, is considered a problem that will be faced in the next few years.

With such a huge impact on the history of life on Earth, advanced AI should indeed be managed and developed by commensurate resources.

Unfortunately, this level of planning and management is not happening. Instead, there is a tendency towards an "out-of-control race" to develop and deploy increasingly powerful digital minds that no one - not even the creators themselves - can understand.

As such, this letter proposes that AI Labs & experts use the pause to develop safety protocols, overseen by independent outside experts.

## Bill Gates: pausing AI won't "solve the challenge"

Calls to halt the development of artificial intelligence will not "solve the challenges" ahead, Bill Gates said in an interview with Reuters, April 5, 2023.

Bill Gates said, "it would be better to focus on [how best to use AI developments](https://sediksi.com/cara-menggunakan-chatgpt-openai/), because it is difficult to understand how pauses can work globally."

This opposing response from Bill Gates is certainly justified from the point of view of his business interests. Since Microsoft has been trying to outpace its competitors through its multi-billion dollar investment in ChatGPT owner OpenAI, this call for a pause certainly has implications for its business progress.

"I don't really understand who they say can stop, and will every country in the world agree to stop, and why should it stop," he said.

## Goldman Sachs just released their AI report on economic growth

Goldman Sachs is an American multinational investment banking and financial services company headquartered in New York City. The company offers investment management, securities, asset management, prime brokerage, and underwriting services.

They estimate that 300 million jobs will be lost to automation. Here are the major takeovers in several fields of work that everyone should know about:

![Source: Global Economics Analyst](https://dev-to-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/articles/ztfh90gpkfui5d65vbuv.png)

## Labor market disruption

Generative AI has huge macroeconomic effects:

- 2/3 of current jobs exposed to some AI automation
- 1/4 of current jobs could be replaced by generative AI
- 300 million jobs will be automated from extrapolated estimates
- Productivity boom

Displacement of workers from automation has historically been offset by:

- New job creation
- Significant labor cost savings
- Higher productivity for non-displaced workers

It is noted that AI could increase annual US labor productivity growth by 1.5% over a 10-year period.

## Investment in AI

Management teams of public companies are increasingly citing AI in earnings calls (teleconferences, or webcasts, where public companies discuss the financial results of the reporting period). These indications of interest predict a major increase in corporate capital investment.

By 2021, global private investment in AI will reach $94 billion-5x that of 5 years earlier.

![Share of companies mentioning AI on Russell 3000 Earnings Calls](https://dev-to-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/articles/oj00hob9zsmpbz7u7fqj.png)

2/3 of US jobs are exposed to automation and 1/4 of current tasks could be automated by AI in the US.

High exposure to white-collar jobs:

- Administration (46%)
- Legal (44%)

Low exposure to blue-collar jobs:

- Construction (6%)
- Maintenance (4%)

![Share of Industry Employment Exposed to Automation by AI: Euro Area](https://dev-to-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/articles/m0lgyza39796epe32r4v.png)

## Replacing vs complementing the future of work

Most jobs are only partially exposed to automation. They are therefore more likely to complement rather than be replaced by AI.

For current US jobs:

- 7% → replaced
- 63% → complemented
- 30% → unaffected

So how is it?

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> This article is translated using DeepL Translator from the Indonesian article which you can access [here](https://sediksi.com/surat-terbuka-penghentian-sementara-pelatihan-ai)