Waves of probability increase reliability. Priority of Russia
Tags: rng, probability, logarithm, integral
Published: 2020-05-09 12:15:37

Waves of probability increase reliability. Priority of Russia

Theory and Practice "0 and 1"

Mathematical laws are valid in all probabilities and it
is important to know a dozen of mismatch limits in a row.

Investigating logarithm is obtained:
formula including logarithm follows from calculation
probabilities of guessing consecutive events

For example, simplest: 0.7*0.7*0.7 = 0.7^3 = 0.343
degree to which it is necessary to build 0.7 to get 0.343
N = LOG(0.343)/LOG(0.7) = 3
and corresponding formula for not guessing

Multiplication of constant probabilities C+p^N=1
and in 20th century formula was restored by 
Andrey Danilin: N = LOG(1-C)/LOG(1-p)
C — probability of winning guaranteed
p — probability of winning event.

Example task: number of mismatches in a row
with a probability of 99% for a probability of 48.65%
 = LOG(1-0,99)/LOG(1-0,4865) = 7
and that means about 50% probability
easy to guess 7 times in a row

Easily possible to count:
formula was discovered by Andrey Danilin: N=7+(5*(1/x-2))
and for example, x=0.1 N=47 is normal and x=0.78 N=4 is normal.

same formulas are valid for probabilities above 50%.

Geometric progression contained in condition or in solution
meaning of “degree to which it is necessary to build”
is solved through logarithm

{% youtube YIJmgOTnkTU %}

* Start 

Using mismatch limit in a row in tables
a wave or a period of guessing of 2 types is detected:

1st type: wave or period — as probability itself
through number of runs and where probability is 1/3
there is a wave or guessing period after 3 runs;

2nd type: wave or period — as limit of discrepancies in a row
and where probability is 1/3 there is a wave or guessing period
in 12 draws and possibly several bets on signal


* Rates 

Virtually raise stakes when you lose
and lower stakes when winning to minimum bet

Really set only observing Quadrat Economy Danilins


* Practice 

We synthesize 50 numbers 0 and 1 controlling amount of 25

	case: 00111000000011111101010011111000001010111010000111
	specially assigned 7 consecutive losses 0000000

we get 4 results of form:
assumed a win / loss and guessed / failed to guess:

A — guess win — 1-1 — participation and win
E — guess loss — 0-0 — non-participation
I — not won — 0-1 — non-participation
U — loosing — 1-0 — participation and loss


* Practice: 001 

idea: missing a few ex
and missed only former would be winning

notation: "!" = signal and "." = waiting

	case: 00111000000011111101010011111000001010111010000111
	code: ..!A........!A..........!A........!U...........!A.

isolate codes A&U = AAAUA = advantageous: A>U
no rate increase and 2 consecutive bids possible
after signal and loss and stop when winning


* Practice: 1st wave 

comparable to perfect distribution

	idea: 01010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101
	case: 00111000000011111101010011111000001010111010000111
	code: EUIAIUEUEUEUEAIAIAEAEAEUIAIAIUEUEUIUIUIAIUIUEUEAIA

isolate codes A&U = UUUUUAAAAAUAAUUUUUAUUUA

see 5 losses in a row and balance is intact
because according to simplest system of betting on losing
7 consecutive losses are required until balance is reset
starting with minimum rate of 1%: = 2^7 = 128 percent of balance

ideas are completely identical signs will repeat
picture of coincidence with same number of mismatches in a row

	idea: 00110011001100110011001100110011001100110011001101
	case: 00111000000011111101010011111000001010111010000111
	code: EEAAIEUUEEUUIIAAIIUAEIUUIIAAIEUUEEAUIEAAIEAUEEUAIA

isolate codes A&U = AAUUUUAAUAUUAUAUUAUAAAUUAA
see 5 consecutive losses and balance is intact


* Practice: 2nd wave 

notation: "!" = signal and "." = waiting

idea: skip 7 consecutive as 0000000
and put a maximum of 2 in a row or before winning

	case: 00111000000011111101010011111000001010111010000111
	code: ...........!A.....................................

in example there could be a loss and see 1 win rare
therefore it is important to monitor all signs

Idea: simply skip 4 in a row like 0000
and put a maximum of 2 in a row or before winning
same formula including logarithm and reliability below

	case: 00111000000011111101010011111000001010111010000111
	code: ........!U......................!UA...........!A..

isolate codes A&U = UUAA
see 3 consecutive losses and balance is intact
but skipping 3 in a row as 000 would be more risk


* Practice: 2nd waves 

matches on 2nd wave from previous match
we add a step as a calculated limit of mismatches in a row

notation: "!" = signal and "." = waiting

	case: 00111000000011111101010011111000001010111010000111
	code: ...123456!U......123456!A...123456!U..............
	code: ....123456!U......123456!A...123456!A.............
	code: .....123456!A.......123456!A.......123456!A.......
	code: .............123456!U.123456!U.......123456!U.....
	code: ..............123456!A...123456!U......123456!U...
	code: ...............123456!U...123456!U......123456!A..
	code: ................123456!U...123456!A..... 123456!A.

isolate codes A&U = UUAUAUUAAAUUUAAUAUUAA
see 3 consecutive losses and balance is intact

 

* Practice: 2 waves and more waves 

idea 001: missing some ex would be losing
and missed only former would be winning

notation: "!" = signal and "." = waiting

	case1: 00111000000011111101010011111000001010111010000111
	code1: ..!U........!A..........!A........!U...........!A.

	case2: 11100001011101010000011111001010111111000000011100
	code2: .......!U...........!A......!U...............!A...

where case2 is reverse sequence from case1 for experiment

isolate codes A&U = UUAAAUUAA = advantageous: A>U
no rate increase and 2 consecutive bids possible
after signal and loss and stop when winning

see 2 consecutive losses and balance is intact

let us assume that all possible situations are independent:

	case3: 0001000010000110000011
	code3: ...!U...!U...!A.....!A

	case4: 0001000011000100000011
	code4: ...!U...!A...!U.....!A

at same time: UU / UA / AU / AA
so were: 1 win and 1 loss and 2 return

probability of winning 1/4 = 25 %
probability of losing 1/4 = 25 %
probability of return 1/2 = 50 %

everything with target: division not coincidence in row
and also same for 3 or more independent signs
and for ideas about a step over limit of mismatch in a row


* Conclusion 

Waves of probability increase reliability

Nobel Prize will not receive itself

![Danilin Flag](https://habrastorage.org/getpro/habr/comment_images/923/41d/d93/92341dd93d489860d82f5a27adeb08e4.gif)