PS5 & Xbox eBay/StockX Scalping Market - Over half a million sold for $104 million in scalper profits
Tags: datascience, python
Published: 2021-08-16 12:16:14

Summary:

* 582,733 consoles sold on StockX/eBay, 353,205 PS5s and 229,529 Xboxes which, by [VGChartz numbers](https://www.vgchartz.com/article/450225/ps5-vs-xbox-series-xs-vs-switch-launch-sales-comparison-through-week-38/), would be 3.37% and 3.6% of all PS5 and Xboxes sold in North America respectively
* $454 million in sales, ~$104 million in profits for scalpers and $56 million for eBay/StockX/PayPal
* PS5 Disc sells for $899, PS5 Digital and Xbox Series X sell for $800, but Xbox Series S sells for $428

Other Articles in Series
* [Zen 3](https://dev.to/driscoll42/the-zen-3-ebay-stockx-market-now-just-a-normal-market-5365)
* PS5 & Xbox Series S/X
* Ampere/RTX 30 Series & RDNA2/Big Navi

Sadly, unlike Zen 3, console prices have not decreased since January. While they have had cycles, consoles have remained steady at around $800 for PS5s and Xbox Series X, and around $400 for the Series S. The only solace in this is that there are far fewer consoles being sold on these sites daily compared to earlier in the year, most likely an indicator of more people being able to buy consoles in store. While I did not examine OfferUp or Craigslist in detail for this update, from what I saw there were similar price levels and number of listings. It should be made abundantly clear that this is no where *near* the full size of the scalping market, only a grey market which I have visibility into. I cannot scrape Craigslist, OfferUp, FB Marketplace, Discord channels, Twitter, PMs between people, back alley deals, and many other channels which people are scalping consoles, which I believe to be far larger.

Looking at eBay's pricing of PS5s, there seems to be an increase in price towards the end of the month before a sudden drop in price. Comparing to major game releases there does not appear to be any correlation, but there is a noticeable decrease in number of units sold as price increases. Perhaps there are monthly restockings that get listed on eBay bringing prices down and as it gets bought prices creep up. Unfortunately there's no way to measure shipments. Regardless, 400-600 PS5s and 250-300 Xboxes are still sold on eBay daily.

![Console Median Pricing in % MSRP](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/PS5%20%26%20Xbox%20Median%20Pricing%207%20Day%20Rolling%20Average%20-%20%25%20MSRP.png)

* [Console Median Pricing in Raw Dollars - 7 Day Rolling Average](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/PS5%20%26%20Xbox%20Median%20Pricing%207%20Day%20Rolling%20Average%20-%20%24.png)
* [Console Median Pricing in % MSRP](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/PS5%20%26%20Xbox%20Median%20Pricing%20-%20%25%20MSRP.png)
* [Console Median Pricing in Raw Dollars](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/PS5%20%26%20Xbox%20Median%20Pricing%20-%20%24.png)


Console Graph|MSRP|Total Sold|Median Price|Past Week Median Price|Casual Scalper Break Even|Sophisticated Scalper Break Even|Total Sales|Estimated eBay/PayPal Profits|Estimated Scalper Profits
---|---|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----
[PS5 Digital](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/PS5%20Digital.png)|$399 |41,157 |$803 |$750 |$406 |$522 |$34,862,850 |$4,381,172 |$11,523,779 
[PS5 Disc](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/PS5.png)|$499 |133,257 |$899 |$795 |$507 |$648 |$127,366,170 |$15,972,689 |$35,322,680 
PS5 Total|N/A |174,414 |N/A |N/A |N/A |N/A |$162,229,020 |$20,353,861 |$46,846,459 
[Xbox Series S](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/Xbox%20Series%20S.png)|$299 |42,178 |$428 |$369 |$304 |$385 |$18,449,747 |$2,334,809 |$1,860,616 
[Xbox Series X](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/Xbox%20Series%20X.png)|$499 |106,435 |$799 |$735 |$507 |$639 |$86,941,826 |$10,889,902 |$16,293,114 
Xbox Total|N/A |148,613 |N/A |N/A |N/A |N/A |$105,391,573 |$13,224,711 |$18,153,730 
Total|N/A |323,027 |N/A |N/A |N/A |N/A |$267,620,593 |$33,578,572 |$65,000,189 
									

StockX has actually sold more PS5s than eBay, though it is by a small margin. Presumably this is due to slightly lower fees on StockX, though with eBay having higher median prices, one would expect sellers would profit more on eBay. eBay has sold more Xboxes by a large margin, as to why I don't know.

Console|Total Sold|Average Sales Price|Last Week Average Price|Total Sales Volume|Estimated StockX Profits|Estimated Scalper Profits
---|---|---|---|---|---|---
PS5 Digital|71,113| $735 | $698 | $52,268,055 | $6,272,167 | $15,848,421 
PS5 Disc|107,677| $789 | $725 | $84,957,153 | $10,194,858 | $17,673,295 
PS5 Total|178,790|N/A|N/A| $137,225,208 | $16,467,025 | $33,521,716 
Xbox Series S|22,144| $397 | $330 | $8,791,168 | $1,054,940 | $701,356 
Xbox Series X|58,772| $692 | $733 | $40,670,224 | $4,880,427 | $4,629,617 
Xbox Total|80,916|N/A|N/A| $49,461,392 | $5,935,367 | $5,330,973 
Total|259,706|N/A|N/A| $186,686,600 | $22,402,392 | $38,852,689 

Looking at the cumulative profit plots, there are distinct spikes where large quantities of consoles went on sale, up to 1500 PS5s were sold on a single day for over $2 million in sales on that day alone.

![PS5 Disc Cumulative Plot](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/PS5%20Cumulative%20Plots.png)

* [PS5 Digital Cumulative Plot](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/PS5%20Digital%20Cumulative%20Plots.png)
* [Xbox Series S Cumulative Plot](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/Xbox%20Series%20S%20Cumulative%20Plots.png)
* [Xbox Series X Cumulative Plot](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/Xbox%20Series%20X%20Cumulative%20Plots.png)


While a 14% of sales on eBay were by individuals selling a single console, 59% were by people selling more than 5 consoles, with a full 23% selling over 50 each. Clearly some scalpers are taking full advantage of this lucrative market.

"Fun" facts: The number 1 seller of PS5s sold 902 consoles, #2 sold 750 PS5s, and #3 sold 464 PS5s (and was also sold the fourth most Xboxes, 515 of them). The #1 seller of Xboxes sold 1757, #2 sold 1709 Xboxes, and #3 sold 849 Xboxes.

![PS5 eBay Seller Sales vs Total Sold](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/PS5%20%26%20Xbox%20eBay%20Seller%20Sales%20vs%20Total%20Sold.png)
Note: The label "5 - 10" should read "6 - 10"

[PS5 Seller Feedback](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/master/2108-Images/PS5%20%26%20Xbox%20eBay%20Seller%20Feedback%20vs%20Quantity%20Sold.png)


Source Code for Data Scraping & Analysis: https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayMarketAnalyzer/