An analysis of the $4 million Big Navi/RDNA2 Scalping Market
Tags: python, datascience, analytics
Published: 2021-01-28 02:28:52

Source Code for Data Scraping: https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper

This article is a continuation of my analysis of the scalping market.

* [Zen 3](https://dev.to/driscoll42/zen-3-scalping-market-analysis-4hhf)
* [Ampere/RTX 30 Series](https://dev.to/driscoll42/nvidia-ampere-rtx-30-series-scalping-market-analysis-4gad)
* RDNA2/Big Navi
* [Xbox Series S/X](https://dev.to/driscoll42/xbox-series-s-x-scalping-market-analysis-l3m)
* [PS5](https://dev.to/driscoll42/an-analysis-of-the-143-million-ps5-scalping-market-414d)

Highlights:
* 3,461 RDNA2 GPUs sold on eBay/StockX
* $3.95 million in sales on eBay/StockX for ~$944k in profit for scalpers and $615k for eBay/PayPal/StockX
* 6800 XT price increased 17% since 1/1 while 6900 and 6800 only increased 7%
* RX 5000 and Vega cards have increased 33% or more since 1/1

Methodology:
As this gets asked a fair amount on how I avoid fake listings:
* This analysis is only for sold listings. 
* I scanned the listings for the words image, picture, mpeg, paper, "Box only", "read description", which are indicators they're fake. 
* Anything below MSRP I tossed out. 
* Anything for a suspicious account, less than 10 feedback I manually checked. 
* I looked at all the lowest 100 or so listing to validate. * I've been doing this every few days for the past few months. Did I get every single listing? Surely not, but I'm very confident I got the vast majority.

For better or worse, Big Navi must be compared in relation to the RTX 30 series. This is quite evident just in the sales volume, just 7% of the RTX 30 series. Further while prices have been increasing for Big Navi since the new year, it is not nearly as dramatic as the RTX 30 series, a clear indication of just lower demand. Not to say there is no demand, on 1/10/21 Newegg dropped 157 RX 6900s and they sold out within an hour, causing a significant drop in the median price for the day. But we can see a clear trend of the 6800 XT going from a low around 170% MSRP to currently just above 200%, while the base 6800 and 6900 share nearly identical overpricing percentages.

For the prices below, I have left the break evens as they were from before the tariff increase to show how much prices have changed and the scalper profits using the old MSRP as I suspect most sales are from cards purchased before the increase.

![Big Navi/RDNA2 Series Median Pricing](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/Big%20Navi%20Median%20Pricing.png?raw=true)
* [Median Pricing in Dollars](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/Big%20Navi%20Median%20Pricing%20-%20Raw%20Dollars.png?raw=true)

GPU Graph | MSRP| Total Sold | Median Price | Past Week Median Price | Casual Scalper Break Even | Sophisticated Scalper Break Even | Total Sales | Estimated Scalper Profits | Estimated eBay/PayPal Profits
---|---|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----
[RX 6800](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/RX%206800%20-XT%20-image%20-jpeg%20-img%20-picture%20-pic%20-jpg.png?raw=true)|$399 |1169|$865 |$909 |$720 |$589 |$1,035,858 |$185,978 |$300,746 
[RX 6800 XT](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/RX%206800%20XT%20-image%20-jpeg%20-img%20-picture%20-pic%20-jpg.png?raw=true)|$499|1135|$1,229 |$1,320 |$807 |$660 |$1,394,076 |$440,234 |$151,922 
[RX 6900 XT](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/RX%206900%20-image%20-jpeg%20-img%20-picture%20-pic%20-jpg.png?raw=true)|$699 |722|$1,460 |$1,549 |$1,234 |$1,015 |$1,072,000 |$172,569 |$122,496 
Total|N/A |3026|N/A |N/A |N/A |N/A |$3,501,934 |$798,781 |$575,164 

Comparing eBay to StockX for Big Navi, scalpers are far less likely to use StockX. StockX sold 14% as many Big Navi GPUs vs 27% as many Ampere GPUs. The total volume of sales is below half a million, though the profits are nothing to scoff at.

CPU|Total Sold|Average Sales Price|Last Week Average Price| Total Sales Volume | Estimated StockX Profits | Estimated Scalper Profits
---|---|---|---|---|---|---
RX 6800|128|$830 |$898 |$105,810 |$9,523 |$36,929 
RX 6800 XT|239|$1,036 |$1,249 |$248,346 |$22,351 |$88,245 
RX 6900 XT|68|$1,377 |$1,453 |$94,716 |$8,524 |$31,827 
Total|435|N/A|N/A|$448,872 |$40,398 |$157,001 

![6800 XT Cumulative Sales/Profits](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/RX%206800%20XT%20Cumulative%20Plots.png?raw=true)

* [RX 6800 Cumulative Sales/Profits](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/RX%206800%20Cumulative%20Plots.png?raw=true)
* [RX 6800 XT Cumulative Sales/Profits](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/RX%206800%20XT%20Cumulative%20Plots.png?raw=true)
* [RX 6900 XT Cumulative Sales/Profits](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/RX%206900%20Cumulative%20Plots.png?raw=true)

The cumulative sales charts mostly show a fairly linear profitability curve for the scalpers, not a very steep slope, but still a hundreds of thousands of dollars. Of interest are the clear examples when Newegg lists 100+ units for sale and they sell out within the day, spiking the sales/profits trendline.

![Big Navi/RDNA2 Series Seller Quantity Sold](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/Big%20Navi%20eBay%20Seller%20Sales%20vs%20Total%20Sold.png?raw=true) 

![Big Navi/RDNA2 Series Seller Feedback](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/Big%20Navi%20eBay%20Seller%20Feedback%20vs%20Quantity%20Sold.png?raw=true)

For the sellers, there’s a clear 3-16% fakes, of those with <10 feedback on eBay, and again the largest group being 100-499. However the ratio of stores selling vs non-stores is lower, perhaps scalpers are being more successful? But of all the listings Big Navi has the most sellers who are selling 1-2, 51% of them. Whether this is an indication of scalpers not caring as much or just the lack of listings is something I am unable to determine.
 
![Big Navi/RDNA2 Series AIB 7 Day Rolling Average](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/Big%20Navi%20AIB%20Comparison%207%20Rolling%20Average.png?raw=true)
* [Big Navi/RDNA2 Series AIB Daily compare](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/Big%20Navi%20AIB%20Comparison.png?raw=true)

AIB|AIB Total # Sold|AIB Total Sales|6800 Average Price|6800 Total Sold|6800 Total Sales|6800 XT Average Price|6800 XT Total Sold|6800 XT Total Sales|6900 XT Average Price|6900 XT  Total Sold|6900 XT Total Sales
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SAPPHIRE|769| $899,652 | $895 |305| $272,902 | $1,277 |316| $403,485 | $1,509 |148| $223,265 
XFX|398| $461,609 | $924 |153| $141,318 | $1,226 |162| $198,685 | $1,465 |83| $121,606 
ASROCK|342| $407,307 | $853 |103| $87,900 | $1,169 |69| $80,695 | $1,404 |170| $238,712 
POWERCOLOR|250| $320,803 | $876 |66| $57,829 | $1,293 |71| $91,819 | $1,515 |113| $171,155 
GIGABYTE|245| $246,181 | $868 |153| $132,741 | $1,181 |71| $83,850 | $1,409 |21| $29,590 
ASUS|215| $265,015 | $911 |69| $62,840 | $1,298 |109| $141,493 | $1,640 |37| $60,683 
MSI|120| $128,591 | $851 |67| $56,994 | $1,194 |21| $25,081 | $1,454 |32| $46,516 

Reviewing the AIB resellers, its clear Sapphire is generally preferred, or at least is likely getting the most supply which is being resold immediately, twice as many cards as any other supplier. ASRock seems to sell the cheapest cards, always near the bottom in average price while ASUS is the most again. 


![RX 5000 and Vega Series Pricing](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/RX%205000%20and%20Vega%20Series%20Median%20Pricing%207%20Rolling%20Average_.png?raw=true)

* [RX 5000 And Vega Series in Dollars](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/RX%205000%20and%20Vega%20Series%20Median%20Pricing%207%20Rolling%20Average%20-%20Raw%20Dollars_.png?raw=true)
* [RX 500 Series Median Pricing % MSRP](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/RX%20500%20Series%20Median%20Pricing%207%20Rolling%20Average.png?raw=true)
* [RX 500 Series Median Pricing - Raw Dollars](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/RX%20500%20Series%20Median%20Pricing%207%20Rolling%20Average%20-%20Raw%20Dollars.png?raw=true)

* [RX 400 Series Median Pricing % MSRP](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/RX%20400%20Series%20Median%20Pricing%207%20Rolling%20Average.png?raw=true)
* [RX 400 Series Median Pricing - Raw Dollars](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/RX%20400%20Series%20Median%20Pricing%207%20Rolling%20Average%20-%20Raw%20Dollars.png?raw=true)

* [R5/R7/R9 Series Median Pricing % MSRP](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/R5-R7-R9%20Series%20Median%20Pricing%207%20Rolling%20Average.png?raw=true)
* [R5/R7/R9 Series Median Pricing - Raw Dollars](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/R5-R7-R9%20Series%20Median%20Pricing%207%20Rolling%20Average%20-%20Raw%20Dollars.png?raw=true)

Coming again to the question of last generation, perhaps not directly because of the limited supply, but the resale price of the RX 5700 XT, the RX 5700, RX 5600, RX 5600XT have all dramatically increased in price for most doubling what they were in October of November. This seems less due to the scarcity of cards and more the tariffs.

Detailed Sales Plots

																									
Big Navi|RX 5000 & Vega|RX 500|RX 400|R7/R9 300
---|---|---|---|---
[RX 6900 XT](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/RX%206900%20-image%20-jpeg%20-img%20-picture%20-pic%20-jpg.png)|[Radeon VII](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/Radeon%20VII.png)|[RX 590](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/rx%20590.png)|[RX 480](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/rx%20480.png?raw=true)|[R7 350](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/r7%20350.png)
[RX 6800 XT](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/RX%206800%20XT%20-image%20-jpeg%20-img%20-picture%20-pic%20-jpg.png)|[RX Vega 64](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/rx%20vega%2064.png)|[RX 580](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/rx%20580.png?raw=true)|[RX 470](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/rx%20470.png?raw=true)|[R7 360](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/r7%20360.png?raw=true)
[RX 6800](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/RX%206800%20-XT%20-image%20-jpeg%20-img%20-picture%20-pic%20-jpg.png)|[RX Vega 56](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/rx%20vega%2056.png)|[RX 570](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/rx%20570.png?raw=true)|[RX 460](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/rx%20460.png?raw=true)|[R9 380](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/r9%20380%20-380X.png?raw=true)
|[RX 5700 XT](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/rx%205700%20xt.png)||[RX 560](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/rx%20560.png?raw=true)||[R9 380X](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/r9%20380X.png?raw=true)
|[RX 5700](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/rx%205700%20-xt.png)||[RX 550X](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/rx%20550x.png?raw=true)||[R9 390](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/r9%20390.png?raw=true)
|[RX 5600 XT](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/rx%205600%20xt.png)||[RX 550](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/rx%20550%20-550x.png?raw=true)||[R9 Fury](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/r9%20fury%20-X.png?raw=true)
|[RX 5500 XT](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/rx%205500%20xt.png)||[R9 Nano](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/r9%20nano.png?raw=true)||[R9 Fury X](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/r9%20fury%20x.png?raw=true)
|||[Radeon Pro Duo](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/radeon%20pro%20duo.png?raw=true)||

Cumulative Sales Plots

Big Navi|RX 5000 & Vega|RX 500|RX 400|R7/R9 300
---|---|---|---|---
[RX 6900 XT](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/RX%206800%20XT%20Cumulative%20Plots.png)|[Radeon VII](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/Radeon%20VII%20Cumulative%20Plots.png)|[RX 590](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/rx%20590%20Cumulative%20Plots.png?raw=true)|[RX 480](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/rx%20480%20Cumulative%20Plots.png?raw=true)|[R7 350](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/r7%20350%20Cumulative%20Plots.png?raw=true)
[RX 6800 XT](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/RX%206800%20XT%20Cumulative%20Plots.png)|[RX Vega 64](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/rx%20vega%2064%20Cumulative%20Plots.png)|[RX 580](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/rx%20580%20Cumulative%20Plots.png?raw=true)|[RX 470](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/rx%20470%20Cumulative%20Plots.png?raw=true)|[R7 360](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/r7%20360%20Cumulative%20Plots.png?raw=true)
[RX 6800](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/RX%206800%20Cumulative%20Plots.png)|[RX Vega 56](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/rx%20vega%2056%20Cumulative%20Plots.png)|[RX 570](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/rx%20570%20Cumulative%20Plots.png?raw=true)|[RX 460](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/rx%20460%20Cumulative%20Plots.png?raw=true)|[R9 380](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/r9%20380%20Cumulative%20Plots.png?raw=true)
|[RX 5700 XT](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/rx%205700%20xt%20Cumulative%20Plots.png)||[RX 560](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/rx%20560%20Cumulative%20Plots.png?raw=true)||[R9 380X](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/r9%20380X%20Cumulative%20Plots.png?raw=true)
|[RX 5700](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/rx%205700%20Cumulative%20Plots.png)||[RX 550X](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/rx%20550x%20Cumulative%20Plots.png?raw=true)||[R9 390](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/r9%20390%20Cumulative%20Plots.png?raw=true)
|[RX 5600 XT](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/rx%205600%20xt%20Cumulative%20Plots.png)||[RX 550](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/rx%20550%20Cumulative%20Plots.png?raw=true)||[R9 Fury](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/r9%20fury%20Cumulative%20Plots.png?raw=true)
|[RX 5500 XT](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/rx%205500%20xt%20Cumulative%20Plots.png)||[R9 Nano](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/r9%20nano%20Cumulative%20Plots.png?raw=true)||[R9 Fury X](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/r9%20fury%20x%20Cumulative%20Plots.png?raw=true)
|||[Radeon Pro Duo](https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper/blob/master/2101-Update/radeon%20pro%20duo%20Cumulative%20Plots.png?raw=true)