Yeahhhhhhhhhhhhhh, No. Fediverse Total Active Users vs. Monthly Active Users
Published: 2024-01-08 23:06:06

Mammoth App [shared an interesting stat](https://moth.social/@mammoth/111722188102205570) today. The Fediverse has gained over 1.5 million new users in the past thirty days. This is a 13.8% increase for December. That is incredible, but it's not what's interesting. 

Over the same period, the Fediverse gained just 0.2% Monthly Active Users (MAU).

How is this possible?

Not to age myself, but I remember pitching Facebook ads to the CEO as a way to reach new audiences. That year, I increased Net Operating Income (NOI) by many Schrute Bucks. Sneak-brag aside, I've been in digital marketing for a long time. 

If I showed these stats to my hypothetical boss, they'd probably be curious about the MAU stat. *Why is that so low compared to sign-ups?*

There are a few potential answers I'd provide:

1. Our criteria for counting a Monthly Active User might be too stringent. Is it one post, like, or share for the month? Or is the benchmark higher?
2. Lots of people are signing up and then immediately leaving. This would be no bueno, as they say. 
3. There's a bot invasion, and they're waiting to strike. *Wait, what the fuck*— my boss. Is there bad news on the way, and someone wants to win the war of public opinion? I would have to dig deeper. 

For the first scenario, I don't know how MAU is counted. There's nothing on fedidb.org that defines the metric (that I can find). 

The second scenario is for sure possible. Mastodon has had issues with retention in the past. For October, November, and December 2022, the Fediverse saw a 53% increase in User Grow[^1]. That same period saw a 5% *decrease* in Monthly Active Users. *What?*

![Image description](https://dev-to-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/articles/s05bomsvvwvpqj7tofr4.jpeg)

As an addendum to scenario number 3, there could be a side quest, too. 

This is pure speculation (all of it is 😀), but I saw a few posts this month that felt like bad improv. Each post under the [threads hashtag feed](https://mastodon.social/tags/threads) said the same thing— oh, gee, I signed up for Mastodon, but after three posts I decided Threads was better 🤷. 

So the question is— why would anyone want Mastodians to believe that new sign-ups are taking the midnight train to Georgia? Beats me. Honestly. Seems like a question for a political strategist and not a lowly social media analyst. But these stats don't pass the smell test for me. Or did I forget to take a shower again?

Anyway, here's the screenshot from Mammoth app's account. I assume they got this stat from [fedidb.org](https://fedidb.org/). But I couldn't find a view that showed the Total Users stat near the Fediverse User Growth chart. The page I see has Total Servers and Monthly Active Users in between the two. 

![Image description](https://dev-to-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/articles/kc6o4kumjfpast5u50c1.jpeg)

And hey, I hate to be the downer here. I *want* the Fediverse to grow and remain strong. I very much like it on my chosen servers, and I want to stay on ActivityPub platforms for many years to come. 

But the math is not, how you say, *Mathing*. 

[^1]: Stats from fedidb.org