English: I welcome the Minister's engagement with Assembly Members but also wider civic society, who are interested in this issue, around tax devolution and, in particular, the really significant issues around the yield from the Welsh rates of income tax. I know she's speaking on Tuesday at the Wales Governance Centre, and also thank you for organising your own conference on 19 July, which I'm looking forward to attending. The Finance Committee had Robert Chote from the Office for Budget Responsibility come in last week. You're paying, I think, £100,000 a year for work from the OBR in response to what was done by Bangor University. I was quite struck to learn at the Finance Committee the extent to which the primary responsibility for the tax forecast, and the numbers and the model that drove that, rest with Welsh Government but then OBR come in and challenge that and give a measure of quality control. But it's a huge responsibility. We have this £1 billion so-called 'black hole' with Scottish income tax revenues and, although we haven't changed that - the Welsh rates of income tax is an area where the Government has stuck by its manifesto pledge to keep those the same - that doesn't mean that the tax yield can't change very significantly for matters potentially outside our control. You had Mark Drakeford negotiate the fiscal compact, which I think other parties and Members were complimentary about, but there are still huge uncertainties about how these revenues will develop. I just wonder what lessons the Minister is learning from what's going on in Scotland with this £1 billion so-called 'black hole' and, in particular, whether she thinks there's a case for needing a greater level of contingency and reserve in the spending estimates going forward, given those uncertainties and what we're seeing with Scotland.
Welsh: Rwy'n croesawu ymgysylltiad y Gweinidog ag Aelodau'r Cynulliad, ond hefyd y gymdeithas ddinesig ehangach, sydd â diddordeb yn y mater hwn ynglŷn â datganoli trethi ac yn benodol, y materion gwirioneddol arwyddocaol sy'n ymwneud â'r incwm a geir o gyfraddau treth incwm Cymru. Rwy'n gwybod ei bod yn siarad ddydd Mawrth yng Nghanolfan Llywodraethiant Cymru, a diolch hefyd am drefnu eich cynhadledd eich hun ar 19 Gorffennaf, ac rwy'n edrych ymlaen at ei mynychu. Daeth Robert Chote o'r Swyddfa Cyfrifoldeb Cyllidebol i'r Pwyllgor Cyllid yr wythnos diwethaf. Rwy'n credu eich bod yn talu £100,000 y flwyddyn am waith gan y Swyddfa Cyfrifoldeb Cyllidebol mewn ymateb i'r hyn a wnaethpwyd gan Brifysgol Bangor. Cefais syndod o glywed yn y Pwyllgor Cyllid i ba raddau yr oedd Llywodraeth Cymru yn bennaf gyfrifol am y rhagolwg treth, a'r niferoedd a'r model a oedd yn gyrru hynny, ond wedyn daw'r Swyddfa Cyfrifoldeb Cyllidebol i mewn a herio hynny a rhoi rhywfaint o reolaeth ansawdd. Ond mae'n gyfrifoldeb enfawr. Mae gennym yr £1 biliwn o 'dwll du' fel y'i gelwir gyda refeniw treth incwm yr Alban ac er nad ydym wedi newid hynny - mae cyfraddau treth incwm Cymru yn faes lle mae'r Llywodraeth wedi glynu at ei haddewid maniffesto i gadw'r rheini yr un fath - nid yw hynny'n golygu na all incwm trethi newid yn sylweddol iawn ar gyfer materion a allai fod y tu hwnt i'n rheolaeth. Mark Drakeford a negododd y compact ariannol, a chredaf fod y pleidiau a'r Aelodau eraill yn canmol hynny, ond mae ansicrwydd mawr o hyd ynglŷn â sut y bydd y refeniw hwn yn datblygu. Rwy'n dyfalu tybed pa wersi y mae'r Gweinidog yn eu dysgu o'r hyn sy'n digwydd yn yr Alban gyda'r £1 biliwn o 'dwll du' fel y'i gelwir ac yn benodol, a yw'n credu bod achos dros fod angen lefel uwch o arian wrth gefn yn yr amcangyfrifon gwario yn y dyfodol o ystyried yr ansicrwydd hwnnw a'r hyn a welwn gyda'r Alban.