English: I'm pleased to contribute to this debate and, indeed, to have been a member of the Finance Committee and to have taken part in the report of the Finance Committee review. It was a thought-provoking inquiry about an issue that, as the Chair of the committee has said, is of growing concern and should be of growing concern to all of us. As we've heard, the proportion of older people in Wales has been increasing over the last decade, and projections show that this trend will only continue. There are serious questions to be addressed with regard to the level of resources available to maintain services and the pressures upon them. So, where do we go from here? This is what we tried to address in the report. Well, as has been said, Professor Gerry Holtham has suggested a common insurance fund to cover future costs of adult social care, and the committee looked at this, as well as other possible solutions, and I'll come on to those in a moment. First of all, if I can turn to some of our key recommendations, recommendation 1 calls on the Welsh Government to develop more targeted research, so that we have access to the most up-to-date and accurate data to base future projections on, and, as we know from experience, some of the limitations of Welsh-only data to date has been an issue for this Assembly. Recommendation 2 calls for a full review of carers' assessments and whether the Act has actually delivered stronger support for carers on the ground - its whole intention. Now, our inquiry looked at the fragility of the provider market, and the evidence provided to us suggested that the market has been fragile for some considerable time, and this is leading to increasing in-sourcing by local authorities to try and reduce the risk exposure for the independent sector. Public Policy Institute for Wales highlighted to us how some providers are returning their contracts to local authorities, because they can't provide at the set fee level. So, whichever way you look at it, this is - over the longer term - an unsustainable situation. If I can just say a little bit about the workforce pressures and retention, the committee received a great deal of evidence that pointed to the difficulties in recruiting staff to the social care sector in the first place, and indeed subsequently retaining those staff. Care Forum Wales said that care workers can often earn more stacking shelves, unbelievably, than working in the sector, or that's the perception, at least, and that cannot be right. I'm pleased the Minister has committed to raising the profile of social care workers so that it can be seen as a more positive career choice, because that was certainly lacking from the evidence that we took from the sector. But we need to do more than that; it's more than just perception. We do need to retain those employees once they're recruited. Just moving on to the proposed social care levy that the Chair has mentioned and Professor Gerry Holtham's favoured solution and its key tenets. Those are contributions made as a proportion of income, with rates remaining constant throughout a person's life, although they would be higher the older a person is when they enter the scheme. Professor Holtham was quite honest and said that more work would need to be done on whether you would have a sliding scale, for instance, of contribution or a flat rate of, he suggested, 1.5 per cent. So, there are many variables. Professor Holtham also admitted his suggestion that reversing the 20 per cent decline in spend per head of population, which he identified, may or may not be sufficient to tackle the problems that we face. He said that it might be better to talk in the region of 23 per cent at the higher end or 17 per cent at the lower end and that either of these may work, or they may not, and that a great deal more work would need to be done to find out exactly what level that would need to be set at. There's also, of course the important issue of how you sell all this to the public. Do you refer to the new scheme as a levy - effectively a tax - or do you label it as compulsory insurance? Of course, even if you do the latter, it may come to be regarded as a tax anyway, so you may as well, in some cases, bite the bullet on that, but the public must know that there is a big problem here and they must be on our side in finding a way to tackle it. Crucially, I think, this has to have cross-party support and be supported for the longer term. That's the only way that this will work and be accepted. You also have to have agreement on how to cover the costs for those who may not have made any significant contributions throughout their lives through illness or through not working for other reasons. So, do we have a separate levy or incorporate it into the Welsh rate of income tax? That option will soon be open to the Welsh Government. The latter is a simpler, as the former finance Minister said, way of doing things and the structure is in place, but, again, the public may need to see clearly that the amount being collected is going towards their social care. So, finally, the Minister said - or the former Cabinet Secretary, as he was - that a UK-wide solution would probably be the best solution and I can see his reasons for saying that. The costs are so great that spreading this across the UK would probably be beneficial. But that said, if this does ultimately fall to Wales to make headway on this issue, then so be it. This is an issue that cannot be ignored for any longer. It was a pretty bleak picture that the report painted, but there were also a number of solutions in there and I think we all have to look at that across parties to find a way to move forward that's acceptable to all of us here and also to the public at large.
Welsh: Rwy'n falch o gyfrannu at y ddadl hon ac yn wir, o fod wedi bod yn aelod o'r Pwyllgor Cyllid a chymryd rhan yn adroddiad adolygiad y Pwyllgor Cyllid. Roedd yn ymchwiliad a ysgogai'r meddwl am fater sydd, fel y dywedodd Cadeirydd y pwyllgor, yn peri pryder cynyddol ac a ddylai beri pryder cynyddol i bob un ohonom. Fel y clywsom, mae cyfran y bobl hŷn yng Nghymru wedi bod yn cynyddu dros y degawd diwethaf, ac mae'r rhagolygon yn dangos y bydd y duedd hon yn parhau. Mae cwestiynau difrifol i'w hateb o ran y lefel o adnoddau sydd ar gael ar gyfer cynnal gwasanaethau a'r pwysau arnynt. Felly, i ble yr awn oddi yma? Dyna y ceisiwyd ei ateb yn yr adroddiad. Wel, fel y dywedwyd, mae'r Athro Gerry Holtham wedi awgrymu cronfa yswiriant cyffredin i dalu am gostau gofal cymdeithasol i oedolion yn y dyfodol, ac edrychodd y pwyllgor ar hyn, yn ogystal ag atebion eraill posibl, a dof at y rheini mewn munud. Yn gyntaf oll, hoffwn gyfeirio'n fyr at rai o'n prif argymhellion, ac mae argymhelliad 1 yn galw ar Lywodraeth Cymru i ddatblygu mwy o ymchwil wedi'i dargedu, fel bod gennym y data mwyaf diweddar a manwl gywir ar gyfer seilio amcanestyniadau ar gyfer y dyfodol arnynt, ac fel y gwyddom o brofiad, hyd yma mae rhai o gyfyngiadau'r data ar Gymru yn unig wedi bod yn broblem i'r Cynulliad hwn. Mae argymhelliad 2 yn galw am adolygiad llawn o asesiadau gofalwyr ac i weld a yw'r Ddeddf wedi darparu cymorth mwy cadarn i ofalwyr ar lawr gwlad mewn gwirionedd - sef ei holl fwriad. Nawr, edrychodd ein hymchwiliad ar natur fregus y farchnad ddarparwyr, ac roedd y dystiolaeth a ddarparwyd ar ein cyfer yn awgrymu bod y farchnad wedi bod yn fregus ers cryn dipyn, ac mae hyn yn arwain at gynyddu'r adnoddau mewnol a ddefnyddir gan awdurdodau lleol er mwyn ceisio lleihau'r risg i'r sector annibynnol. Nododd y Sefydliad Polisi Cyhoeddus i Gymru sut y mae rhai darparwyr yn dychwelyd eu contractau i awdurdodau lleol, am na allant ddarparu gwasanaethau ar lefel y ffi a osodwyd. Felly, pa ffordd bynnag yr edrychwch arni, mae hon - dros y tymor hwy - yn sefyllfa anghynaliadwy. Os caf ddweud ychydig am y pwysau ar y gweithlu a chadw gweithwyr, cafodd y pwyllgor lawer o dystiolaeth a dynnai sylw at yr anawsterau i recriwtio staff i'r sector gofal cymdeithasol yn y lle cyntaf, a chadw'r staff hynny wedyn. Dywedodd Fforwm Gofal Cymru y gall gweithwyr gofal ennill mwy drwy lenwi silffoedd yn aml na thrwy weithio yn y sector, ac mae hynny'n anhygoel, neu dyna'r canfyddiad, o leiaf, ac ni all hynny fod yn iawn. Rwy'n falch fod y Gweinidog wedi ymrwymo i godi proffil gweithwyr gofal cymdeithasol fel y gellir ei weld fel dewis gyrfa mwy cadarnhaol, gan fod hynny'n sicr ar goll o'r dystiolaeth a gawsom gan y sector. Ond mae angen inni wneud mwy na hynny; mae'n fwy na chanfyddiad. Mae angen inni gadw'r gweithwyr hynny ar ôl eu recriwtio. Gan symud ymlaen at yr ardoll gofal cymdeithasol arfaethedig y cyfeiriodd y Cadeirydd ati a'r ateb y mae'r Athro Gerry Holtham yn ei ffafrio a'i elfennau allweddol, sef cyfraniadau a wneir fel cyfran o incwm, gyda chyfraddau'n aros yn gyson drwy gydol oes yr unigolyn, er y byddent yn uwch po hynaf y bo'r unigolyn wrth ymuno â'r cynllun. Roedd yr Athro Holtham yn onest iawn a dywedodd y byddai angen gwneud rhagor o waith i weld a fyddai gennych raddfa symudol, er enghraifft, ar gyfer cyfrannu neu gyfradd sefydlog - awgrymodd 1.5 y cant. Felly, mae yna nifer o newidynnau. Cyfaddefodd yr Athro Holtham hefyd nad oedd sicrwydd fod ei awgrym i wrthdroi'r dirywiad o 20 y cant a nododd yn y gwariant fesul y pen o'r boblogaeth yn ddigon i fynd i'r afael â'r problemau sy'n ein hwynebu. Dywedodd y gallai fod yn well sôn am oddeutu 23 y cant ar y pen uchaf neu 17 y cant ar y pen isaf ac y gallai'r naill neu'r llall o'r rhain weithio, neu beidio â gweithio, ac y byddai angen gwneud llawer iawn mwy o waith i ddarganfod ar ba lefel yn union y byddai angen ei osod. Hefyd, wrth gwrs, mae'r cwestiwn pwysig ynglŷn â sut y mae gwerthu hyn oll i'r cyhoedd. A ydych yn cyfeirio at y cynllun newydd fel ardoll - treth i bob pwrpas - neu a ydych yn ei labelu fel yswiriant gorfodol? Wrth gwrs, hyd yn oed os gwnewch yr olaf, gallai ddod i gael ei hystyried fel treth beth bynnag, felly mewn rhai achosion o bosibl, waeth i chi fynd amdani ar hynny, ond rhaid i'r cyhoedd gael gwybod bod problem fawr yma a rhaid iddynt fod ar ein hochr ni o ran dod o hyd i ffordd o'i datrys. Yn hollbwysig, rwy'n credu, rhaid i hyn gael cefnogaeth drawsbleidiol a hirdymor. Dyna'r unig ffordd y bydd hyn yn gweithio ac yn cael ei dderbyn. Hefyd, rhaid ichi gael cytundeb ynglŷn â sut i dalu costau'r rhai nad ydynt o bosibl wedi gwneud unrhyw gyfraniadau sylweddol ar hyd eu hoes o ganlyniad i salwch neu fethu gweithio am resymau eraill. Felly, a ydym am gael ardoll ar wahân neu ei hymgorffori yng nghyfradd Cymru o'r dreth incwm? Bydd yr opsiwn hwnnw'n agored i Lywodraeth Cymru cyn bo hir. Mae'r olaf yn ffordd symlach o wneud pethau, fel y dywedodd y cyn-Weinidog cyllid, ac mae'r strwythur yn ei le, ond unwaith eto, efallai y bydd angen i'r cyhoedd weld yn glir fod y swm sy'n cael ei gasglu yn mynd tuag at eu gofal cymdeithasol. Felly, yn olaf, dywedodd y Gweinidog - neu'r cyn-Ysgrifennydd Cabinet, fel yr oedd - mai ateb DU gyfan fyddai'r ateb gorau yn ôl pob tebyg a gallaf weld ei resymau dros ddweud hynny. Mae'r costau mor fawr fel y byddai lledaenu hyn ar draws y DU yn fanteisiol mae'n debyg. Ond wedi dweud hynny, os mai Cymru fydd yn arwain ar hyn yn y pen draw, boed hynny fel y bo. Mae hwn yn fater na ellir ei anwybyddu mwyach. Rhoddodd yr adroddiad ddarlun go llwm i ni, ond roedd yn cynnwys nifer o atebion hefyd a chredaf fod yn rhaid i ni i gyd edrych ar draws y pleidiau i ddod o hyd i ffordd o symud ymlaen sy'n dderbyniol i bawb ohonom yma ac i'r cyhoedd yn gyffredinol hefyd.