English: I questioned the Cabinet Secretary in Finance Committee last Wednesday, and a transcript of that session has been circulated to Members, so I don't propose to go through all the ground that I covered then on some of the more technical aspects of the fiscal framework, although I was broadly satisfied with the responses the Cabinet Secretary was able to give. I would just like to raise two areas. Within the narrow terms that the Cabinet Secretary has set in terms of protecting Welsh Government revenue, he may think he's done a reasonably good job within the fiscal framework. But that, of course, is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for protecting the interests of Welsh taxpayers. I'd like to ask if he shares my concern about a potential asymmetry with how devolved income tax powers will work and the potential to alter Welsh rates of income tax within a band of 10 per cent. I understand that the Welsh Government has said in the Labour manifesto that these rates wouldn't be changed during this Assembly. But were, at a later point, his or another Government to seek to increase the Welsh rate of income tax, that would lead to two effects. One, there would be a higher rate and the higher rate would, itself, increase revenue, but it would potentially also have an effect on the income tax base, and at least some of that increase in revenue might be offset by what he described as behavioural effects. In the regime proposed, all of the benefit of that higher income would go to the Welsh Government, while most of the cost of any behavioural effect would go to the UK Government. Given that the power to change that rate is held by the Welsh Government, doesn't that create an asymmetry where the incentive is to raise taxes because the Welsh Government gets all of the revenue benefit of that, but most of the revenue cost of the behavioural changes is felt by the UK Government that isn't making that decision? I'd also like to just ask about when decisions were made in this area. We discussed before, Cabinet Secretary, what seemed to be your uncanny powers of foresight. You had told us that, at least, Labour Assembly Members would be weighing this up carefully over the weekend and making a decision last night, I think - Monday night or whenever it was - in your meeting. However, paragraph 14 of the fiscal framework clearly states that the Welsh Government's funding will ultimately come from two separate funding streams, including Welsh rates of income tax. So, in signing that, you and David Gauke presumed that that devolution of income tax rates would happen. You replied and suggested that perhaps that was a mistake or I shouldn't put too much emphasis on that, and actually it hadn't been decided and everyone was going to be carefully considering it before any decision was made. I then went and referred to the Labour Party's manifesto for the Assembly elections earlier this year, and note that it states in that: 'We will guarantee not to increase Income Tax in the next Assembly term when these powers are devolved'. Why, if the Cabinet Secretary says that no decision has been made, that it all depends on the fiscal framework and Labour AMs weighing things up, why did the Labour manifesto categorically state when? I.e., it's a done deal. At what point between the 2015 Conservative manifesto at a UK level, when they promised there would be a referendum before income tax powers were devolved, and the Labour manifesto of 2016, when it took that as a given, was the decision changed? What discussions did Ministers in the Welsh Government have with Ministers in the UK Government, whether formally or informally, to stitch up a deal to devolve tax-raising powers, having previously promised they would depend on a referendum? And why will the Welsh Government, and indeed the UK Government, jointly, not respect what it stated on the ballot paper of that 2011 referendum: that devolution of tax-raising powers would not follow a 'yes' vote? Why have they broken their word? [Interruption.]
Welsh: Holais Ysgrifennydd y Cabinet yn y Pwyllgor Cyllid ddydd Mercher diwethaf, ac mae trawsgrifiad o'r sesiwn honno wedi ei ddosbarthu i'r Aelodau, felly nid wyf yn bwriadu ymdrin eto â'r cyfan a drafodais bryd hynny ynghylch rhai o'r agweddau mwy technegol ar y fframwaith cyllidol, er fy mod wedi fy modloni ar y cyfan â'r ymatebion a roddodd Ysgrifennydd y Cabinet. Hoffwn godi dau faes. O fewn y telerau cyfyng y mae Ysgrifennydd y Cabinet wedi'u gosod o ran diogelu refeniw Llywodraeth Cymru, efallai ei fod yn meddwl ei fod yn gwneud gwaith eithaf da o fewn y fframwaith cyllidol. Ond mae hynny, wrth gwrs, yn amod angenrheidiol ond nid amod digonol ar gyfer amddiffyn buddion trethdalwyr Cymru. Hoffwn ofyn a yw'n rhannu fy mhryder ynghylch anghymesuredd posibl o ran sut y bydd pwerau treth incwm datganoledig yn gweithio, a'r potensial i newid cyfraddau treth incwm Cymru o fewn band o 10 y cant. Deallaf fod Llywodraeth Cymru wedi dweud yn y maniffesto Llafur na fyddai'r cyfraddau hyn yn cael eu newid yn ystod y Cynulliad hwn. Ond pe bai ei Lywodraeth ef neu Lywodraeth arall yn ceisio cynyddu cyfradd treth incwm Cymru yn y dyfodol, byddai hynny'n arwain at ddwy effaith. Un, byddai yna gyfradd uwch a byddai'r gyfradd uwch, ei hun, yn cynyddu refeniw, ond byddai hefyd o bosibl yn cael effaith ar y sylfaen treth incwm, a gellid gosod o leiaf peth o'r cynnydd refeniw hwnnw yn erbyn yr hyn a ddisgrifiodd yn effeithiau ymddygiadol. Yn y drefn arfaethedig, byddai'r holl fudd o'r incwm uwch hwnnw yn mynd i Lywodraeth Cymru, a byddai'r rhan fwyaf o gost unrhyw effaith ymddygiadol yn mynd i Lywodraeth y DU. O ystyried mai gan Lywodraeth Cymru y mae'r pŵer i newid y gyfradd honno, onid yw hynny'n creu anghymesuredd, lle ceir cymhelliant i godi trethi oherwydd y bydd Llywodraeth Cymru yn cael yr holl fudd refeniw o hynny, ond y bydd y rhan fwyaf o gost refeniw y newidiadau ymddygiadol yn cael ei hysgwyddo gan Lywodraeth y DU nad yw'n gwneud y penderfyniad hwnnw? Hoffwn i hefyd ofyn pryd y gwnaed penderfyniadau yn y maes hwn. Buom yn trafod o'r blaen, Ysgrifennydd y Cabinet, ei bod yn ymddangos bod gennych bwerau rhagweld rhyfedd. Roeddech chi wedi dweud wrthym, o leiaf, y byddai Aelodau Llafur y Cynulliad yn pwyso a mesur hyn yn ofalus dros y penwythnos ac yn gwneud penderfyniad neithiwr, rwy'n credu - nos Lun neu bryd bynnag - yn eich cyfarfod. Fodd bynnag, mae paragraff 14 o'r fframwaith cyllidol yn datgan yn glir y bydd cyllid Llywodraeth Cymru yn dod yn y pen draw o ddwy ffrwd ariannu ar wahân, gan gynnwys cyfraddau treth incwm Cymru. Felly, trwy arwyddo hynny, gwnaethoch chi a David Gauke dybio y byddai'r datganoli cyfraddau treth incwm yn digwydd. Gwnaethoch chi ateb ac awgrymu fod hynny efallai yn gamgymeriad neu na ddylwn i roi gormod o bwyslais ar hynny, ac mewn gwirionedd nad oedd wedi'i benderfynu ac y bydd pawb yn ei ystyried yn ofalus cyn gwneud unrhyw benderfyniad. Wedyn cyfeiriais at faniffesto'r Blaid Lafur ar gyfer etholiadau'r Cynulliad yn gynharach eleni, a nodi ei bod yn datgan ynddo: 'Gwarant i beidio â chynyddu Treth Incwm yn ystod tymor nesaf y Cynulliad pan fydd y pwerau hyn wedi eu datganoli i Senedd Cymru'. Pam, os bydd Ysgrifennydd y Cabinet yn dweud na wnaed unrhyw benderfyniad, bod y cyfan yn dibynnu ar y fframwaith cyllidol ac Aelodau Cynulliad Llafur yn pwyso a mesur pethau, pam y gwnaeth maniffesto Llafur nodi'n bendant pa bryd? H.y. mae'r penderfyniad wedi'i wneud. Ar ba bwynt rhwng maniffesto 2015 y Ceidwadwyr ar lefel y DU, pan addawyd y byddai refferendwm cyn datganoli pwerau treth incwm, a maniffesto 2016 Llafur, pan gymerwyd hynny yn ganiataol, y newidiwyd y penderfyniad? Pa drafodaethau a gafodd Gweinidogion yn Llywodraeth Cymru â Gweinidogion yn Llywodraeth y DU, boed yn ffurfiol neu'n anffurfiol, i gytuno ar fargen i ddatganoli pwerau codi trethi, ar ôl addo yn flaenorol y byddent yn dibynnu ar refferendwm? A pham na fydd Llywodraeth Cymru, ac yn wir Llywodraeth y DU, ar y cyd, yn parchu'r hyn a nododd ar bapur pleidleisio'r refferendwm hwnnw yn 2011: na fyddai datganoli pwerau codi trethi yn dilyn pleidlais 'ie'? Pam maen nhw wedi torri eu haddewid? [Torri ar draws.]