English: Could I firstly apologise to colleagues for arriving late to the debate, and particularly to my colleague, Nick Ramsay, whose introductions are often as rousing as his perorations? So, I'm sorry to have missed that. I did hear Neil Hamilton's speech just now. I'd previously been aware that he was a lawyer, but I hadn't realised that he was a tax avoidance specialist until he revealed that just now, and considers that he has put his life to more productive use since then. I heard Alun Davies's comments earlier and his scepticism that you could ever increase revenue by having a lower tax rate or vice versa. The Welsh Government seems to like new taxes - the idea of testing the system - and we do have this test bed. And the tax increase that they have put in has been on commercial property above £1 million; they now charge 6 per cent, rather than 5 per cent. I discussed this with the now First Minister before it happened and shared my fears and was assured that it would make more than a few thousand of difference - or none at all, we would hear from the back benches. But we actually have some figures now on this and I quoted before a survey by a company called CoStar, which monitors commercial transactions. They observed that, in the second quarter of the year, the first quarter of the land transaction tax, the amount of commercial transactions in Wales slumped to just £40 million. That compares to a quarterly average previously, over the past five years, of £180 million. Now, the First Minister criticised me for putting too much emphasis on one quarter's figures, and told me there had been one big transaction that had come through in the next quarter, and we now have those figures - at least, from this survey - for Q3, the second quarter of LTT, and there has been a slight increase to £54 million, so now we're only 70 per cent rather than 78 per cent below what we were seeing before. And if we multiply those rates to - [ Inaudible.] - with his observation earlier, we will find that, over a typical six months of what was SDLT, we would have seen 5 per cent taken on £180 million per quarter. That would be £18 million over six months. Since then, on these numbers, we have seen £40 million plus £54 million - £94 million - and taking 6 per cent of that we get £5.64 million. So, that is, if my maths serves me correctly, £12.36 million of lost revenue thanks to that 1 per cent tax increase. And - [ Interruption.] I'd be delighted to take an intervention.
Welsh: Yn gyntaf a gaf fi ymddiheuro i gyd-Aelodau am gyrraedd yn hwyr i'r ddadl, ac yn arbennig i fy nghyd-Aelod, Nick Ramsay, y mae ei gyflwyniadau'n aml mor danbaid a'i berorasiynau? Felly, mae'n ddrwg gennyf fod wedi colli hynny. Clywais araith Neil Hamilton yn awr. Roeddwn yn ymwybodol ei fod yn arfer bod yn gyfreithiwr, ond nid oeddwn wedi sylweddoli ei fod yn arbenigwr ar osgoi trethi hyd nes y datgelodd hynny yn awr, a'i fod yn ystyried ei fod wedi gwneud defnydd mwy cynhyrchiol o'i fywyd ers hynny. Clywais sylwadau Alun Davies yn gynharach a'i amheuon na allech byth gynyddu refeniw drwy gael cyfradd dreth is neu'r gwrthwyneb. Ymddengys bod Llywodraeth Cymru yn hoffi trethi newydd - y syniad o brofi'r system - ac mae gennym fan prawf yma. Ac mae'r cynnydd yn y dreth a gyflwynwyd ganddynt ar eiddo masnachol dros £1 miliwn; maent bellach yn codi 6 y cant yn hytrach na 5 y cant. Trafodais hyn gyda'r Prif Weinidog, bellach, cyn iddo ddigwydd a rhennais fy ofnau a chefais sicrwydd y byddai'n gwneud mwy nag ychydig o filoedd o wahaniaeth - neu ddim o gwbl, byddem yn ei glywed gan y meinciau cefn. Ond mewn gwirionedd mae gennym rai ffigurau ar hyn yn awr ac rwyf wedi dyfynnu arolwg gan gwmni o'r enw CoStar o'r blaen, cwmni sy'n monitro trafodiadau masnachol. Yn ail chwarter y flwyddyn, sef chwarter cyntaf y dreth trafodiadau tir, gwelsant fod swm trafodiadau masnachol yng Nghymru wedi disgyn i £40 miliwn yn unig. Mae hynny'n cymharu â chyfartaledd chwarterol blaenorol, dros y pum mlynedd diwethaf, o £180 miliwn. Nawr, cefais fy meirniadu gan y Prif Weinidog am roi gormod o bwyslais ar ffigurau un chwarter, a dywedodd wrthyf fod un trafodiad mawr wedi dod drwodd yn y chwarter nesaf, a bellach mae gennym y ffigurau hynny - o'r arolwg hwn, o leiaf - ar gyfer chwarter tri, sef ail chwarter y dreth trafodiadau tir, a bu ychydig o gynnydd i £54 miliwn, felly nid ydym ond 70 y cant yn hytrach na 78 y cant yn is na'r hyn a welem cyn hynny. A phe baem yn cynyddu'r cyfraddau hynny i - [ Anghlywadwy.] - gyda'i sylw yn gynharach, dros chwe mis arferol o'r hyn a oedd yn arfer bod yn dreth dir y dreth stamp, fe welwn y byddem wedi cael 5 y cant o dderbyniadau ar £180 miliwn y chwarter. Byddai hynny'n £18 miliwn dros chwe mis. Ers hynny, ar y rhifau hyn, gwelsom £40 miliwn a £54 miliwn - £94 miliwn - ac o gymryd 6 y cant o hwnnw, cawn £5.64 miliwn. Felly, os yw fy mathemateg yn gywir, dyna £12.36 miliwn o refeniw a gollwyd diolch i'r cynnydd o 1 y cant yn y dreth. A - [ T orri ar draws.] Buaswn yn falch o dderbyn ymyriad.