English: I'm grateful to both speakers in the debate this afternoon, and recognise the particular query that they have in respect of the Welsh Government's commitment not to increase income tax for as long as the economic impact of the pandemic lasts. The economic impact of coronavirus, including its duration, its scale and legacy of course is monitored on an ongoing basis, and particularly now in light of the concerning and terrible events in Ukraine. I think that it is too early to take a view, given the effect of the winding down of the pandemic measures. So, we're still starting to feel the impact of the end of furlough, for example. That needs to work its way through in terms of the job market, so there's lots yet that we haven't fully felt in terms of the impact of the pandemic. And, of course, at the same time, we're seeing the issues around energy prices and other supply constraints, as well as labour shortages, which are holding back growth and increasing inflation and putting pressure on wages. So, there are lots of things happening at the moment that obviously mean it's not the right time to consider changes to Welsh rates of income tax. But I do want to make the point that we're talking about two separate things, really, in the sense that there's no trigger point at which, if the economy performs in this particular way at that point, we will describe ourselves as no longer feeling the impacts of the pandemic. That doesn't necessarily mean that it will trigger an increase or a decrease in the Welsh rates of income tax. So, I think that we need to consider the overall economic position and what that means for families and for taxpayers in Wales, but then also not to suggest that if we were to reach a certain point of the recovery it would automatically trigger an increase or a decrease, because those things will be considered at that point. I'm sorry I can't be more detailed at this point, but at the moment there are still so many moving parts that we can't really get that picture. And I will take this opportunity to say that, actually, it is the UK Government that is increasing the tax burden on people and on households in Wales, and this is really going to start to be felt from April onwards. The OBR has reported that through the planned national insurance rise, which was announced in September, and also the corporate and personal tax increases, which were in the UK Government's March budget, the UK Government has raised the tax burden from 33.5 per cent of GDP before the pandemic to 36.2 per cent of GDP by 2026-27, and that is its highest since the early 1950s. So, whilst we're also considering the impact of the pandemic and the economic recovery, we also need to be understanding of the overall tax burden on taxpayers, so that decisions that we might take in future have to be considered in the round in terms of the responsibilities placed on taxpayers by the UK Government as well. So, I'll leave it there for today, Llywydd, and ask colleagues for their support for the Welsh rates of income tax for the next financial year.
Welsh: Rwy'n ddiolchgar i'r ddau siaradwr yn y ddadl y prynhawn yma, ac yn cydnabod yr ymholiad penodol sydd ganddyn nhw ynglŷn ag ymrwymiad Llywodraeth Cymru i beidio â chynyddu treth incwm cyhyd ag y bydd effaith economaidd y pandemig yn para. Mae effaith economaidd y coronafeirws, gan gynnwys ei hyd, ei raddfa a'i waddol wrth gwrs yn cael ei monitro'n barhaus, ac yn enwedig yn awr yng ngoleuni'r digwyddiadau pryderus ac ofnadwy yn Wcráin. Rwy'n credu ei bod yn rhy gynnar i gymryd barn, o ystyried effaith dirwyn y mesurau pandemig i ben. Felly, rydym yn dal i ddechrau teimlo effaith diwedd y ffyrlo, er enghraifft. Mae angen i hynny weithio'i ffordd drwodd o ran y farchnad swyddi, felly mae llawer eto nad ydym wedi'i deimlo'n llawn o ran effaith y pandemig. Ac, wrth gwrs, ar yr un pryd, rydym yn gweld y materion sy'n ymwneud â phrisiau ynni a chyfyngiadau cyflenwi eraill, yn ogystal â phrinder llafur, sy'n dal twf yn ôl a chwyddiant cynyddol ac yn rhoi pwysau ar gyflogau. Felly, mae llawer o bethau'n digwydd ar hyn o bryd sy'n amlwg yn golygu nad dyma'r adeg iawn i ystyried newidiadau i gyfraddau treth incwm Cymru. Ond rwyf am wneud y pwynt ein bod yn sôn am ddau beth ar wahân, mewn gwirionedd, yn yr ystyr nad oes trothwy pryd, os bydd yr economi'n perfformio yn y ffordd benodol hon bryd hynny, y byddwn ni'n ystyried nad ydym bellach yn teimlo effeithiau'r pandemig. Nid yw hynny o reidrwydd yn golygu y bydd yn sbarduno cynnydd neu ostyngiad yng nghyfraddau treth incwm Cymru. Felly, rwy'n credu bod angen i ni ystyried y sefyllfa economaidd gyffredinol a'r hyn y mae hynny'n ei olygu i deuluoedd ac i drethdalwyr yng Nghymru, ond wedyn peidio ag awgrymu, pe baem yn cyrraedd pwynt penodol o'r adferiad, y byddai'n arwain yn awtomatig at gynnydd neu ostyngiad, oherwydd bydd y pethau hynny'n cael eu hystyried bryd hynny. Mae'n ddrwg gennyf na allaf fod yn fanylach ar hyn o bryd, ond mae cymaint o rannau yn symud o hyd fel na allwn gael y darlun hwnnw mewn gwirionedd. Ac fe wnaf fanteisio ar y cyfle hwn i ddweud mai Llywodraeth y DU, mewn gwirionedd, sy'n cynyddu'r baich treth ar bobl ac ar aelwydydd yng Nghymru, a bydd hyn yn dechrau cael ei deimlo o fis Ebrill ymlaen. Mae'r Swyddfa Cyfrifoldeb Cyllidebol wedi adrodd bod Llywodraeth y DU, drwy'r cynnydd arfaethedig mewn yswiriant gwladol, a gyhoeddwyd ym mis Medi, a hefyd y cynnydd yn y dreth gorfforaethol a phersonol, a oedd yng nghyllideb Llywodraeth y DU ym mis Mawrth, wedi codi'r baich treth o 33.5 y cant o'r cynnyrch domestig gros cyn y pandemig i 36.2 y cant o'r cynnyrch domestig gros erbyn 2026-27, a dyna ei uchaf ers dechrau'r 1950au. Felly, er ein bod hefyd yn ystyried effaith y pandemig a'r adferiad economaidd, mae angen i ni hefyd ddeall y baich treth cyffredinol ar drethdalwyr, fel bod yn rhaid i benderfyniadau y gallem ni eu gwneud yn y dyfodol gael eu hystyried yn gyffredinol o ran y cyfrifoldebau a osodir ar drethdalwyr gan Lywodraeth y DU hefyd. Felly, fe'i gadawaf i hi yn y fan yna am heddiw, Llywydd, a gofynnaf i fy nghyd-Aelodau am eu cefnogaeth i gyfraddau treth incwm Cymru ar gyfer y flwyddyn ariannol nesaf.