English: Thank you, Deputy Presiding Officer, and thank you for the opportunity to update the Chamber on the work of the inter-ministerial group on paying for social care. There is broad concern over the quality and sustainability of social care, both here in Wales and across the wider United Kingdom. If we are to have a meaningful conversation about the future of social care, then we have to consider seriously the quality and reach of social care, together with the funding that it requires, and how we raise this. Social care is a significant budget pressure for local government. Despite the reality of a decade of austerity, budgets have continued to rise annually by around 5.5 per cent over recent years. Across each area of Wales, with each different political leadership, there is a recognition in local government of the scale of the challenge. This Government has prioritised social care by making it one of the six priorities in our national strategy, 'Prosperity for All'. We've delivered on our manifesto commitment to raise the capital limit for residential care to £50,000. In Wales, we offer the most generous allowance in the UK for the savings and other capital that a person can keep without using those to fund their care. But we believe that we do need to go further. That is what the inter-ministerial group has been considering. The existing pressures on social care are very real. We have considered Professor Holtham's proposals for a social care levy designed to meet the needs of an ageing demographic. However, pressures exist across other demographic groups, including for working-age adults as well as for older people. Recent research that the inter-ministerial group commissioned from LE Wales highlights uncertainties in projecting future expenditure needs for social care. Using five illustrative scenarios, LE Wales estimates the need for additional funding over the next three years could range from £35 million a year for 2020 to 2023 to an additional £327 million a year by the same point. And these amounts are projected just to maintain, not extend, current provision. As I said, we want to go further. Our ambitions for social services in Wales are to keep pace with people's needs and expectations. This will inevitably require additional resources and investment.
Welsh: Diolch i chi, Dirprwy Lywydd, a diolch am y cyfle i roi'r wybodaeth ddiweddaraf i'r Siambr am waith y Grŵp Rhyng-Weinidogol ar Dalu am Ofal Cymdeithasol. Mae pryder cyffredinol ynghylch ansawdd a chynaliadwyedd gofal cymdeithasol yma yng Nghymru a thrwy'r Deyrnas Unedig yn fwy eang hefyd. Os ydym ni'n bwriadu cael trafodaeth ystyrlon am ddyfodol gofal cymdeithasol, yna fe fydd yn rhaid inni roi ystyriaeth ddifrifol i ansawdd a chyrhaeddiad gofal cymdeithasol, ynghyd â'r cyllid sydd ei angen arno, a sut y byddwn yn mynd ati i'w godi. Mae gofal cymdeithasol yn achosi pwysau sylweddol ar y gyllideb i lywodraeth leol. Er gwaethaf degawd o galedi gwirioneddol, mae cyllidebau wedi parhau i godi tua 5.5 y cant yn flynyddol yn ystod y blynyddoedd diwethaf. Ar draws pob ardal yng Nghymru, gyda phob arweinyddiaeth wleidyddol wahanol, mae llywodraeth leol yn cydnabod maint yr her. Mae'r Llywodraeth hon wedi blaenoriaethu gofal cymdeithasol drwy ei gwneud hi'n un o'r chwe blaenoriaeth yn ein strategaeth genedlaethol ni, 'Ffyniant i Bawb'. Rydym wedi cyflawni'r ymrwymiad yn ein maniffesto i godi'r terfyn cyfalaf ar gyfer gofal preswyl i £50,000. Yng Nghymru, rydym yn cynnig y lwfans mwyaf hael yn y DU o ran y cynilion a'r cyfalaf arall y gall unigolion eu cadw heb eu defnyddio i ariannu'r gofal a gânt. Ond credwn fod angen inni fynd ymhellach. A dyna mae'r Grŵp Rhyng-Weinidogol wedi bod yn ei ystyried. Mae pwysau gwirioneddol iawn ar ofal cymdeithasol ar hyn o bryd. Rydym wedi ystyried cynigion Athro Holtham ar gyfer ardoll gofal cymdeithasol a luniwyd i fodloni anghenion demograffeg sy'n heneiddio. Er hynny, mae pwysau'n bodoli ar draws grwpiau demograffig eraill, gan gynnwys oedolion o oedran gweithio a phobl hŷn. Mae ymchwil ddiweddar LE Wales a gomisiynwyd gan y grŵp rhyng-weinidogol yn tynnu sylw at ansicrwydd wrth ragamcanu anghenion gwariant i'r dyfodol ar gyfer gofal cymdeithasol. Gan ddefnyddio pum senario eglurhaol, mae LE Wales yn amcangyfrif y gallai'r angen am arian ychwanegol dros y tair blynedd nesaf amrywio o £35 miliwn y flwyddyn ar gyfer 2020 i 2023 hyd at £327 miliwn ychwanegol y flwyddyn erbyn diwedd yr un cyfnod. Ac amcangyfrifir y bydd angen y symiau hyn er mwyn cynnal, nid ymestyn, y ddarpariaeth gyfredol. Fel y dywedais i, rydym yn dymuno mynd ymhellach. Ein huchelgais ni ar gyfer gwasanaethau cymdeithasol yng Nghymru yw cyd-fynd ag anghenion a disgwyliadau pobl. Mae'n anorfod y bydd hyn yn gofyn am adnoddau a buddsoddiad ychwanegol.