English: I don't suggest that the Minister is complacent and, clearly, the OBR has a reputation that it has developed, but I'm a little cautious of thinking just because we have the OBR rather than our own commission that necessarily its performance will be better, because we're only funding it to the tune of £100,000 a year and they do not have the specific experience of the Welsh economy and thinking carefully about how Welsh revenue might diverge because it hasn't been necessary to think about that to the same degree before because the issue has not been of the significance that it now will be. So, I just caution the Minister to the extent that her department is primarily driving this and the OBR is coming in and giving its view and giving some views, but that must be a relatively limited given the £100,000 budget compared to the £1.6 million to the Scottish Fiscal Commission. I ask, going forward, as to the sensitivity of this issue in terms of what the forecast is but also if the tax rates were to be changed, what the impact of that would be, and, in particular, the sensitivities along the border as to whether people might move either physically themselves or the reported income on which they would be paying tax. I know that it's an issue of great significance to Welsh Government and I'm sure you have a number of officials who are working very carefully on this, but it's also of huge significance to other parties in the Assembly, and as we get closer to the upcoming Assembly election, a little under two years, parties will want to think very carefully about what their policies are going to be for their manifesto, and a big input into that will be what those sensitivities are, what the risks around them are, and I just wonder what more the Minister and Welsh Government can do to share and open up the expertise they have in-house to the input of others, but also, perhaps, to give some common assessment on which political parties can talk about the impacts of their proposed tax policies.
Welsh: Nid wyf yn awgrymu bod y Gweinidog yn hunanfodlon ac yn amlwg, mae gan y Swyddfa Cyfrifoldeb Cyllidebol enw da y mae wedi'i ddatblygu, ond rwy'n gochel braidd rhag meddwl, oherwydd bod gennym y Swyddfa Cyfrifoldeb Cyllidebol yn hytrach na'n comisiwn ein hunain y bydd eu perfformiad yn well o reidrwydd, gan mai dim ond £100,000 y flwyddyn a rown iddo ac nid oes ganddynt brofiad penodol o economi Cymru a meddwl gofalus ynglŷn â sut y gallai refeniw Cymru fod yn wahanol oherwydd ni fu angen meddwl am hynny i'r un graddau o'r blaen am nad oedd yr un arwyddocâd i'r mater ag a fydd yn awr. Felly, rwy'n rhybuddio'r Gweinidog i'r graddau mai ei hadran sy'n gyrru hyn yn bennaf a bod y Swyddfa Cyfrifoldeb Cyllidebol yn dod i mewn ac yn rhoi eu barn ac yn rhoi rhai safbwyntiau, ond rhaid bod hynny'n gymharol gyfyngedig o ystyried y gyllideb o £100,000 o gymharu â'r £1.6 miliwn sy'n mynd i Gomisiwn Cyllidol yr Alban. Wrth symud ymlaen, rwy'n gofyn am sensitifrwydd y mater hwn o ran beth yw'r rhagolwg ond hefyd pe bai'r cyfraddau treth yn cael eu newid, beth fyddai effaith hynny, ac yn benodol, y sensitifrwydd ar hyd y ffin o ran a fyddai pobl yn symud naill ai'n gorfforol eu hunain neu'n symud yr incwm a gofnodwyd y byddent yn talu treth arno. Rwy'n gwybod ei fod yn fater o bwys mawr i Lywodraeth Cymru ac rwy'n siŵr fod gennych nifer o swyddogion yn gweithio'n ofalus iawn ar hyn, ond mae hefyd yn arwyddocaol iawn i bleidiau eraill yn y Cynulliad, ac wrth inni agosáu at etholiad nesaf y Cynulliad, mewn ychydig o dan ddwy flynedd, bydd y pleidiau am feddwl yn ofalus iawn am yr hyn fydd eu polisïau ar gyfer eu maniffesto, a mewnbwn mawr i hynny fydd beth yw'r sensitifrwydd hwnnw, beth yw'r peryglon ynghylch y polisïau hynny, a tybed beth yn rhagor y gall y Gweinidog a Llywodraeth Cymru ei wneud i rannu ac ehangu'r arbenigedd sydd ganddynt yn fewnol i gynnwys mewnbwn gan bobl eraill, ond hefyd, efallai, i roi asesiad cyffredin yn sail i bleidiau gwleidyddol allu siarad am effeithiau eu polisïau treth arfaethedig.