English: Can I also thank the finance Secretary and his staff, actually, for the briefing earlier today? It's always helpful in the budget-setting process, when time is limited. I should also thank you, of course, Cabinet Secretary, for the usual clamour of austerity. Where would we be without it, particularly on these benches? [Assembly Members: 'Oh.'] And to set - [ Interruption.] And to set - [ Interruption.] And to set the record straight - [ Interruption. ] And to set the record straight - [ Interruption.] And to set the record straight, recent data on the shares of gross value added by the Office for National Statistics have shown that England is actually the only nation in the UK that has substantially reduced its deficit per capita, equivalent to £158 per person. Meanwhile, Wales has 27 times more borrowing per person, with a deficit of £4,251 per person. The UK Government is set to deliver a surplus budget for the first time since 2001, a £112 billion drop in borrowing since the financial crisis, but the Welsh deficit fell by just £2 billion in the same time. Doesn't that mean that it has been left almost entirely to England to close the budget deficit, and is that right? Can that possibly be right? So, rather than - [ Interruption.] Rather than - [ Interruption.] Rather than the usual - [ Interruption.] Rather than the usual harsh words about austerity, perhaps you should look a little bit closer to home about what we're doing in Wales to deal with the financial problems that this country was left with by a previous Government. Of course, a key change to this budget is the fact that, from April next year, the Welsh Government will be in total control of approximately £5 billion of revenue generated from taxes, or a third of its current combined spending. So, to coin the words of Harry S. Truman, the buck truly will stop here. Alongside land transaction tax and landfill disposal tax, the Welsh Government will also have income tax-varying powers, as we were told, from April 2019. And can I welcome the Cabinet Secretary's commitment not to increase income tax in Wales before the next Assembly election? I must say I don't think that this is an entirely selfless decision on the part of the Welsh Labour Government. To increase taxes at the same time as we face the uncertainty of Brexit, and when the Welsh economy is still underperforming in relation to other parts of the UK, would be, at best, counterproductive and, at worst, disastrous for the Welsh economy, not to mention Welsh Labour's election prospects, of course. I must ask the question, though - and the Cabinet Secretary was quite clear on this - can we assume that, if Welsh Labour were to form the Government after 2021, then we can expect pretty sharp increases in income tax at the various rates, and, if so, by how much? I think the people of Wales do deserve an answer to that. As we know, there are risks with varying taxes; I know the Cabinet Secretary would agree with that himself. The Welsh Government-commissioned Welsh tax base report notes that 'there would likely be some behavioural response fromtaxpayers' should Welsh Government change income tax rates. This seems to be in stark contract to some of the assertions of the Welsh Government before Finance Committee that changes to taxation would not affect migration rates, so some clarity on that aspect of future tax policy would be appreciated. And I do support the Cabinet Secretary's decision to keep income tax rates as they are over the next couple of years, as we weather some of the storms that we're going to be facing. If I can turn to the other taxes, the veteran taxes, if I can call them that, and the unusually good news about landfill disposal tax, now forecast to deliver £40 million to the Welsh budget rather than the original - £20 million, I think, was the original forecast. I suspect, Cabinet Secretary, you're right in your assessment that rather than waste tourism having gone through the roof over the past year - I haven't seen lorries of waste traversing up and down the M4 and the A55 in any greater quantities than they were before - the difference probably is due to the Welsh Revenue Authority collecting taxes over a smaller base and possibly doing so with the enthusiasm of youth. Whatever the reason - and perhaps there are lessons for tax collection across the border - it's important that Wales keeps this dividend, and I will also make that case strongly, as I believe you will as well. Looking at the figures for the land disposal tax's bigger sister, the land transaction tax, it does look as though the opposite has been the case and there has been some drop-off in the amounts that were predicted to be collected for that tax, particularly at the higher rates. Could it be that the Welsh Conservative warnings about the effect of increasing rates at the higher end of this tax have come to pass? Now, I don't expect the Cabinet Secretary to rush to confirm this, at least not before 11 December, but if he could shed some light on this rather murky area, that would be illuminating to all of us. And, on the matter of reviewing those bands, the door should definitely be left open, particularly if there are changes to the English stamp duty land tax regime that deals with very high-end transactions by foreign nationals, although I do appreciate that the number of Russian oligarchs living in Blaenau Gwent is probably rather limited. Don't look this way, Minister Emeritus. [ Laughter.]
Welsh: A gaf i hefyd ddiolch i'r Ysgrifennydd dros gyllid a'i staff, a dweud y gwir, am y sesiwn briffio yn gynharach heddiw? Mae bob amser yn ddefnyddiol yn y broses o osod cyllideb, pan fo amser yn brin. Dylwn hefyd ddiolch i chi, wrth gwrs, Ysgrifennydd y Cabinet, am y dwndwr arferol am gyni. Ble byddem ni hebddo, yn enwedig ar y meinciau hyn? [Aelodau'r Cynulliad: 'O.'] Ac i egluro - [ Torri ar draws.] Ac i egluro - [ Torri ar draws. ] Ac i egluro'r sefyllfa - [ Torri ar draws. ] Ac i egluro'r sefyllfa - [ Torri ar draws.] Ac i egluro'r sefyllfa, mae data diweddar ar gyfranddaliadau gwerth gros a ychwanegwyd gan y Swyddfa Ystadegau Gwladol yn dangos mai Lloegr mewn gwirionedd yw'r unig wlad yn y DU sydd wedi lleihau'n sylweddol ei diffyg fesul pen, sy'n cyfateb i £158 y person. Yn y cyfamser, mae cyfradd fenthyca Cymru 27 gwaith yn fwy y pen, gyda diffyg o £4,251 y person. Mae Llywodraeth y DU ar fin darparu cyllideb warged am y tro cyntaf ers 2001, gostyngiad o £112 biliwn mewn benthyca ers yr argyfwng ariannol, ond gostyngodd y diffyg yng Nghymru dim ond gan £2 biliwn yn yr un cyfnod. Onid yw hynny'n golygu y'i gadawyd hi bron yn gyfan gwbl i Loegr i unioni'r diffyg yn y gyllideb, ac a yw hynny'n briodol? Does bosib fod hynny'n briodol? Felly, yn hytrach na - [ Torri ar draws.] Yn hytrach na - [ Torri ar draws.] Yn hytrach nag yn ôl yr arfer - [ Torri ar draws.] Yn hytrach na'r geiriau llym arferol am gyni, efallai y dylech chi edrych ychydig yn nes gartref ynglŷn â beth ydym ni'n ei wneud yng Nghymru i ymdrin â'r problemau ariannol y gadawyd y wlad hon ynddyn nhw gan Lywodraeth flaenorol. Wrth gwrs, newid allweddol yn y gyllideb hon yw'r ffaith, o fis Ebrill y flwyddyn nesaf, y bydd gan Lywodraeth Cymru reolaeth lwyr dros gyfanswm o tua £5 biliwn o refeniw a gynhyrchir o drethi, neu draean o'i gwariant cyfunol presennol. Felly, fel y dywedodd Harry S. Truman, dyma ble yn wir y mae'r cyfrifoldeb yn gorwedd. Ochr yn ochr â'r dreth trafodiadau tir a'r dreth gwarediadau tirlenwi, bydd gan Lywodraeth Cymru y pwerau hefyd i amrywio treth incwm, fel y dywedwyd wrthym ni, o fis Ebrill 2019 ymlaen. Ac a gaf i groesawu ymrwymiad Ysgrifennydd y Cabinet i beidio â chynyddu treth incwm yng Nghymru cyn etholiad nesaf y Cynulliad? Mae'n rhaid imi ddweud nad wyf yn credu bod hwn yn benderfyniad hollol anhunanol ar ran Llywodraeth Lafur Cymru. Byddai cynyddu trethi ar yr un pryd ag yr ydym ni'n wynebu ansicrwydd Brexit, a phan fo economi Cymru yn dal yn tangyflawni o'i gymharu â rhannau eraill o'r DU, ar y gorau, yn wrthgynhyrchiol ac, ar y gwaethaf, yn drychinebus i economi Cymru, heb sôn am ragolygon etholiadol Llafur Cymru, wrth gwrs. Mae'n rhaid imi ofyn y cwestiwn, fodd bynnag - ac roedd Ysgrifennydd y Cabinet yn ddigon clir ar hyn - a gawn ni dybio, pe byddai Llafur Cymru yn ffurfio Llywodraeth ar ôl 2021, yna y gallem ni ddisgwyl cynnydd eithaf sylweddol yn y dreth incwm ar y gwahanol gyfraddau, ac os felly, gan faint? Credaf fod pobl Cymru yn haeddu ateb i hynny. Fel y gwyddom ni, mae yna beryglon i amrywio trethi; Rwy'n gwybod y byddai Ysgrifennydd y Cabinet yn cytuno â hynny ei hun. Mae adroddiad sylfaen treth Cymru a gomisiynwyd gan Lywodraeth Cymru yn nod ei bod 'yn debygol y byddai peth ymateb ymddygiadol gandrethdalwyr' pe byddai Llywodraeth Cymru yn newid cyfraddau treth incwm. Ymddengys bod hyn mewn gwrthgyferbyniad llwyr i rai o haeriadau Llywodraeth Cymru cyn y Pwyllgor Cyllid na fyddai newidiadau i drethi yn effeithio ar gyfraddau mudo, felly byddai rhywfaint o eglurder ar yr agwedd honno ar bolisi treth y dyfodol yn cael ei werthfawrogi. Ac rwyf yn cefnogi penderfyniad Ysgrifennydd y Cabinet i gadw cyfraddau treth incwm fel ag y maen nhw yn ystod y flwyddyn neu ddwy nesaf, wrth inni wynebu rhai o'r stormydd y byddwn ni yn eu hwynebu. Os caf i droi at y trethi eraill, y trethi hynafol, os gallaf eu galw'n hynny, a'r newyddion da anarferol am dreth gwarediadau tirlenwi, y rhagwelir y bydd bellach yn darparu £40 miliwn i gyllideb Cymru yn hytrach na'r - £20 miliwn, mi gredaf, oedd y rhagolygon gwreiddiol. Rwy'n amau, Ysgrifennydd y Cabinet, eich bod yn gywir yn eich asesiad, yn hytrach na bod twristiaeth gwastraff wedi cynyddu y tu hwnt i bob rheswm yn ystod y flwyddyn ddiwethaf - nid wyf wedi gweld lorïau llawn gwastraff yn tramwyo'r M4 a'r A55 mewn unrhyw niferoedd mwy nag yr oeddent o'r blaen - bod y gwahaniaeth yn fwy na thebyg oherwydd i Awdurdod Cyllid Cymru gasglu trethi dros sylfaen lai ac o bosibl yn gwneud hynny gyda brwdfrydedd ieuenctid. Beth bynnag fo'r rheswm - ac efallai fod gwersi i'w dysgu o ran casglu trethi ar draws y ffin - mae'n bwysig bod Cymru yn cadw'r difidend hwn, a byddaf hefyd yn dadlau'r achos hwnnw yn gryf, fel y credaf y byddwch chithau yn ei wneud hefyd. Wrth edrych ar y ffigurau ar gyfer chwaer fawr treth gwarediadau tir, y dreth trafodiadau tir, ymddengys bod y gwrthwyneb wedi digwydd ac y bu peth lleihad yn y symiau y rhagwelwyd y byddai'n cael eu casglu ar gyfer y dreth, yn arbennig ar y cyfraddau uwch. Tybed a yw rhybuddion y Ceidwadwyr Cymreig am yr effaith o gynyddu cyfraddau ar ben uchaf y dreth hon wedi dod yn wir? Nawr, nid wyf yn disgwyl i Ysgrifennydd y Cabinet ruthro i gadarnhau hyn, o leiaf nid cyn 11 Rhagfyr, ond pe gallai daflu rhywfaint o oleuni ar y maes gweddol niwlog hwn, byddai hynny'n darparu eglurder i bob un ohonom ni. Ac, o ran adolygu'r bandiau hynny, dylid yn sicr ystyried gwneud hynny, yn enwedig os oes newidiadau yng nghyfundrefn treth dir y dreth stamp yn Lloegr sy'n ymdrin â thrafodiadau uwchraddol iawn gan wladolion tramor, er fy mod i'n sylweddoli nad oes llawer, mae'n debyg, o oligarchiaid Rwsiaidd yn byw ym Mlaenau Gwent. Peidiwch ag edrych y ffordd yma, Gweinidog Emeritws. [ Chwerthin.]