Global, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity, 1990–2021, with forecasts to 2050: a forecasting study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Authors: Marie Ng, Emmanuela Gakidou, Justin Lo, Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate, Cristiana Abbafati, Nasir Abbas, Mohammadreza Abbasian, Samar Abd ElHafeez, Wael M Abdel-Rahman, Sherief Abd-Elsalam, Arash Abdollahi, Meriem Abdoun, Deldar Morad Abdulah, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Auwal Abdullahi, Armita Abedi, Hansani Madushika Abeywickrama, Alemwork Abie, Richard Gyan Aboagye, Shady Abohashem, Dariush Abtahi, Hasan Abualruz, Bilyaminu Abubakar, Rana Kamal Abu Farha, Hana J Abukhadijah, Niveen ME Abu-Rmeileh, Salahdein Aburuz, Ahmed Abu-Zaid, Lisa C Adams, Mesafint Molla Adane, Isaac Yeboah Addo, Kamoru Ademola Adedokun, Nurudeen A Adegoke, Abiola Victor Victor Adepoju, Ridwan Olamilekan Adesola, Temitayo Esther Adeyeoluwa, Usha Adiga, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Siamak Afaghi, Saira Afzal, Muhammad Sohail Afzal, Thilini Chanchala Agampodi, Shahin Aghamiri, César Agostinis Sobrinho, Williams Agyemang-Duah, Austin J Ahlstrom, Danish Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Aqeel Ahmad, Muayyad M Ahmad, Fuzail Ahmad, Noah Ahmad, Haroon Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Ayman Ahmed, Meqdad Saleh Ahmed, Mehrunnisha Sharif Ahmed, Syed Anees Ahmed, Marjan Ajami, Samina Akhtar, Mohammed Ahmed Akkaif, Ashley E Akrami, Tariq A Alalwan, Ziyad Al-Aly, Khurshid Alam, Rasmieh Mustafa Al-amer, Amani Alansari, Fahmi Y Al-Ashwal, Mohammed Albashtawy, Wafa A Aldhaleei, Bezawit Abeje Alemayehu, Abdelazeem M Algammal, Khalid F Alhabib, Hanadi Al Hamad, Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan, Dari Alhuwail, Rafat Ali, Abid Ali, Waad Ali, Mohammed Usman Ali, Sheikh Mohammad Alif, Samah W Al-Jabi, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Ahmad Alkhatib, Sabah Al-Marwani, Mahmoud A Alomari, Saleh A Alqahtani, Rajaa M Mohammad Al-Raddadi, Ahmad Alrawashdeh, Intima Alrimawi, Sahel Majed Alrousan, Najim Z Alshahrani, Omar Al Ta'ani, Zain Al Ta'ani, Zaid Altaany, Awais Altaf, Yazan Al Thaher, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Mohammad Al-Wardat, Yaser Mohammed Al-Worafi, Safwat Aly, Hany Aly, Hosam Alzahrani, Abdallah Alzoubi, Karem H Alzoubi, Md. Akib Al-Zubayer, Sohrab Amiri, Hubert Amu, Dickson A Amugsi, Ganiyu Adeniyi Amusa, Roshan A Ananda, Robert Ancuceanu, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Ranjit Mohan Anjana, Sumbul Ansari, Mohammed Tahir Ansari, Catherine M Antony, Iyadunni Adesola Anuoluwa, Boluwatife Stephen Anuoluwa, Saeid Anvari, Saleha Anwar, Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor, Geminn Louis Carace Apostol, Juan Pablo Arab, Jalal Arabloo, Mosab Arafat, Aleksandr Y Aravkin, Demelash Areda, Hidayat Arifin, Mesay Arkew, Benedetta Armocida, Johan Ärnlöv, Mahwish Arooj, Anton A Artamonov, Kurnia Dwi Artanti, Ashokan Arumugam, Mohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi, Tahira Ashraf, Bernard Kwadwo Yeboah Asiamah-Asare, Anemaw A Asrat, Thomas Astell-Burt, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Prince Atorkey, Alok Atreya, Zaure Maratovna Aumoldaeva, Hamzeh Awad, Mamaru Ayenew Awoke, Adedapo Wasiu Awotidebe, Setognal Birara Aychiluhm, Ali Azargoonjahromi, Amirali Azimi, Sadat Abdulla Aziz, Shahkaar Aziz, Ahmed Y. Azzam, Domenico Azzolino, Peter S Azzopardi, Mina Babashahi, Giridhara Rathnaiah Babu, Ashish D Badiye, Nasser Bagheri, Yogesh Bahurupi, Ruhai Bai, Atif Amin Baig, Shankar M Bakkannavar, Senthilkumar Balakrishnan, Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu, Kiran Bam, Maciej Banach, Rajon Banik, Mainak Bardhan, Hiba Jawdat Barqawi, Simon Barquera, Lingkan Barua, Zarrin Basharat, Shahid Bashir, Mohammad-Mahdi Bastan, Saurav Basu, Reza Bayat, Mulat Tirfie Bayih, Narasimha M Beeraka, Tahmina Begum, Umar Muhammad Bello, Abdulrahman Babatunde Bello, Luis Belo, Isabela M Bensenor, Maria Bergami, Kidanemaryam Berhe, Abiye Assefa Berihun, Ajeet Singh Bhadoria, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Neeraj Bhala, Jaideep Singh Bhalla, Ravi Bharadwaj, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Nikha Bhardwaj, Sonu Bhaskar, Ajay Nagesh Bhat, Priyadarshini Bhattacharjee, Shuvarthi Bhattacharjee, Jasvinder Singh Bhatti, Gurjit Kaur Bhatti, Andras Bikov, Cem Bilgin, Catherine Bisignano, Bijit Biswas, Bruno Bizzozero Peroni, Espen Bjertness, Tone Bjørge, Srinivasa Rao Bolla, Hamed Borhany, Samuel Adolf Bosoka, Souad Bouaoud, Edward J Boyko, Dejana Braithwaite, Javier Brazo-Sayavera, Hermann Brenner, Gabrielle Britton, Dana Bryazka, Raffaele Bugiardini, Linh Phuong Bui, Felix Busch, Yasser Bustanji, Nadeem Shafique Butt, Zahid A Butt, Daniela Calina, Luciana Aparecida Campos, Ismael Campos-Nonato, Si Cao, Yin Cao, Angelo Capodici, Andre F Carvalho, Márcia Carvalho, Alberico L Catapano, Monica Cattafesta, Maria Sofia Cattaruzza, Luca Cegolon, Francieli Cembranel, Edina Cenko, Ester Cerin, Achille Cernigliaro, Joshua Chadwick, Chiranjib Chakraborty, Raymond N C Chan, Jung-Chen Chang, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Anis Ahmad Chaudhary, Akhilanand Chaurasia, Guangjin Chen, An-Tian Chen, Haowei Chen, Esther T W Cheng, Nicholas WS Chew, Gerald Chi, Ritesh Chimoriya, Patrick R Ching, Dong-Woo Choi, Bryan Chong, Hitesh Chopra, Shivani Chopra, Hou In Chou, Sonali Gajanan Choudhari, Dinh-Toi Chu, Sunghyun Chung, Sheng-Chia Chung, Muhammad Chutiyami, Karly I Cini, Iolanda Cioffi, Rebecca M Cogen, Daniel Collado-Mateo, Alyssa Columbus, Nathalie Conrad, Michael H Criqui, Natalia Cruz-Martins, Steven Cummins, Emanuele D'Amico, Lucio D'Anna, Mario D'Oria, Omid Dadras, Xiaochen Dai, Mayank Dalakoti, Rakhi Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Pojsakorn Danpanichkul, Samuel Demissie Darcho, Reza Darvishi Cheshmeh Soltani, Alanna Gomes da Silva, Kairat Davletov, Ivan Delgado-Enciso, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Meseret Derbew Molla, Ismail Dergaa, Aragaw Tesfaw Desale, Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan Devanbu, Devananda Devegowda, Syed Masudur Rahman Dewan, Arkadeep Dhali, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Meghnath Dhimal, Bibha Dhungel, Daniel Diaz, Monica Dinu, Milad Dodangeh, Sushil Dohare, Klara Georgieva Dokova, Neda Dolatkhah, Camila Bruneli do Prado, Fariba Dorostkar, Ojas Prakashbhai Doshi, Rajkumar Prakashbhai Doshi, Robert Kokou Dowou, Viola Savy Dsouza, Mi Du, Samuel C Dumith, Dorothea Dumuid, Bruce B Duncan, Sulagna Dutta, Arkadiusz Marian Dziedzic, Alireza Ebrahimi, Behrad Eftekhari, Ashkan Eighaei Sedeh, Michael Ekholuenetale, Mohamed Ahmed Eladl, Rabie Adel El Arab, Said El-Ashker, Iffat Elbarazi, Ibrahim Farahat El Bayoumy, Islam Y Elgendy, Muhammed Elhadi, Waseem El-Huneidi, Ashraf A El-Metwally, Mohamed A Elmonem, Mohamed Hassan Elnaem, Randa Elsheikh, Ibrahim Elsohaby, Chadi Eltaha, Theophilus I Emeto, Maysa Eslami, Ugochukwu Anthony Eze, Heidar Fadavian, Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe, Ildar Ravisovich Fakhradiyev, Seyed Nooreddin Faraji, Carla Sofia e Sá Farinha, MoezAlIslam Ezzat Mahmoud Faris, Umar Farooque, Hossein Farrokhpour, Samuel Aanuoluwapo Fasusi, Patrick Fazeli, Timur Fazylov, Alireza Feizkhah, Ginenus Fekadu, Xiaoqi Feng, João C Fernandes, Rodrigo Fernandez-Jimenez, Nuno Ferreira, Bikila Regassa Feyisa, Florian Fischer, David Flood, Nataliya A Foigt, Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan, Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov, Roham Foroumadi, Celia Fortuna Rodrigues, Matteo Foschi, Maryam Fotouhi, Kate Louise Francis, Richard Charles Franklin, Aleš Gába, Muktar A Gadanya, Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane, Yaseen Galali, Silvano Gallus, Balasankar Ganesan, Shivaprakash Gangachannaiah, Wendy Paola Gastélum Espinoza, Miglas Welay Gebregergis, Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel, Lemma Getacher, Fataneh Ghadirian, Amir Ghaffari Jolfayi, Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari, Ramy Mohamed Ghazy, Artyom Urievich Gil, Tiffany K Gill, Elena V Gnedovskaya, Mahaveer Golechha, Davide Golinelli, Michal Grivna, Ashna Grover, Zhongyang Guan, Shi-Yang Guan, Giovanni Guarducci, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Avirup Guha, Damitha Asanga Gunawardane, Zheng Guo, Rajeev Gupta, Anish Kumar Gupta, Rahul Gupta, Sapna Gupta, Vivek Kumar Gupta, Roberth Steven Gutiérrez-Murillo, Jose Guzman-Esquivel, Najah R Hadi, Zahra Hadian, Nadia M Hamdy, Sajid Hameed, Samer Hamidi, Mohammad Hamiduzzaman, Asif Hanif, Nasrin Hanifi, Graeme J Hankey, Allie Haq, Netanja I Harlianto, Josep Maria Haro, Risky Kusuma Hartono, Faizul Hasan, Mohammad Hashem Hashempur, Md Saquib Hasnain, Amr Hassan, Nageeb Hassan, Soheil Hassanipour, Afagh Hassanzade Rad, Rasmus J Havmoeller, Simon I Hay, Wen-Qiang He, Jeffrey J Hebert, Golnaz Heidari, Mehdi Hemmati, Yuta Hiraike, Nguyen Quoc Hoan, Mai Hoang, Ramesh Holla, Praveen Hoogar, Ashley Mark Hopkins, Alamgir Hossain, Hassan Hosseinzadeh, Sorin Hostiuc, Mihaela Hostiuc, Zin Wai Htay, Chengxi Hu, Junjie Huang, Tsegaye Gebreyes Hundie, Mohamed Ibrahim Husseiny, Hong-Han Huynh, Ivo Iavicoli, Anel Ibrayeva, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Irena M Ilic, Milena D Ilic, Mohammad Tarique Imam, Leeberk Raja Inbaraj, Arit Inok, Lalu Muhammad Irham, Md. Rabiul Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Rakibul M Islam, Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail, Hiroyasu Iso, Gaetano Isola, Mosimah Charles Ituka, Masao Iwagami, Chinwe Juliana Iwu-Jaja, Assefa N Iyasu, Vinothini J, Louis Jacob, Shabbar Jaffar, Haitham Jahrami, Akhil Jain, Ammar Abdulrahman Jairoun, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Mohamed Lamrana Jalloh, Syed Sarmad Javaid, Sathish Kumar Jayapal, Umesh Jayarajah, Shubha Jayaram, Rime Jebai, Felix K Jebasingh, Alelign Tasew Jema, Mohammad Jokar, Jost B Jonas, Jobinse Jose, Nitin Joseph, Charity Ehimwenma Joshua, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Mikk Jürisson, Billingsley Kaambwa, Ali Kabir, Zubair Kabir, Ashish Kumar Kakkar, Sanjay Kalra, Sivesh Kathir Kamarajah, Saddam Fuad Kanaan, Samuel Berchi Kankam, Kehinde Kazeem Kanmodi, Neeti Kapoor, Mehrdad Karajizadeh, Paschalis Karakasis, Reema A Karasneh, Yeganeh Karimi, Arman Karimi Behnagh, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Joonas H Kauppila, Gbenga A Kayode, Dimitrios Kehagias, Jessica A Kerr, Ariz Keshwani, Emmanuelle Kesse-Guyot, Mohammad Keykhaei, Inn Kynn Khaing, Himanshu Khajuria, Pantea Khalili, Alireza Khalilian, Mohamed Khalis, Mohammad Jobair Khan, Maseer Khan, Nusrat Khan, Md Abdullah Saeed Khan, Ajmal Khan, Moien AB Khan, Shaghayegh Khanmohammadi, Khaled Khatab, Moawiah Mohammad Khatatbeh, Maryam Khayamzadeh, Feriha Fatima Khidri, Fatemeh Khorashadizadeh, Atulya Aman Khosla, Sepehr Khosravi, Mahmood Khosrowjerdi, Jagdish Khubchandani, Helda Khusun, Jinho Kim, Kwanghyun Kim, Min Seo Kim, Yun Jin Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Adnan Kisa, Ladli Kishore, Mika Kivimäki, Michail Kokkorakis, Ali-Asghar Kolahi, Farzad Kompani, Oleksii Korzh, Karel Kostev, Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana, Irene Akwo Kretchy, Kewal Krishan, Chong-Han Kua, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Mukhtar Kulimbet, Vishnutheertha Kulkarni, Ashish Kumar, Vijay Kumar, G Anil Kumar, Satyajit Kundu, Setor K Kunutsor, Om P Kurmi, Maria Dyah Kurniasari, Dian Kusuma, Ville Kytö, Ben Lacey, Chandrakant Lahariya, Daphne Teck Ching Lai, Hanpeng Lai, Iván Landires, Bagher Larijani, Kamaluddin Latief, Carlo La Vecchia, Nhi Huu Hanh Le, Munjae Lee, Sang-woong Lee, Wei-Chen Lee, Seung Won Lee, Paul H Lee, Ming-Chieh Li, Yongze Li, Weilong Li, Stephen S Lim, Queran Lin, Jialing Lin, Daniel Lindholm, Paulina A Lindstedt, Simin Liu, Erand Llanaj, José Francisco López-Gil, Stefan Lorkowski, Giancarlo Lucchetti, Alessandra Lugo, Angelina M Lutambi, Lei Lv, Ellina Lytvyak, Zheng Feei Ma, Monika Machoy, Javier A Magaña Gómez, Nastaran Maghbouli, Mehrdad Mahalleh, Nozad H Mahmood, Elham Mahmoudi, Rituparna Maiti, Konstantinos Christos C Makris, Kashish Malhotra, Ahmad Azam Malik, Iram Malik, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Abdullah A Mamun, Marjan Mansourian, Emmanuel Manu, Hamid Reza Marateb, Mirko Marino, Abdoljalal Marjani, Ramon Martinez-Piedra, Santi Martini, Miquel Martorell, Sammer Marzouk, Stefano Masi, Soroush Masrouri, Yasith Mathangasinghe, Manu Raj Mathur, Fernanda Penido Matozinhos, Thushara Matthias, Rita Mattiello, Mohsen Mazidi, Steven M McPhail, Enkeleint A Mechili, Riffat Mehboob, Asim Mehmood, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Kamran Mehrabani-Zeinabad, Tesfahun Mekene Meto, Hadush Negash Meles, Walter Mendoza, Ritesh G Menezes, Emiru Ayalew Mengistie, Sultan Ayoub Meo, Tomislav Mestrovic, Sachith Mettananda, Chamila Dinushi Kukulege Mettananda, Ana Carolina Micheletti Gomide Nogueira de Sá, Ted R Miller, GK Mini, Erkin M Mirrakhimov, Awoke Misganaw, Madhukar Mittal, Ahmed Ismail Mohamed, Mona Gamal Mohamed, Nouh Saad Mohamed, Jama Mohamed, Taj Mohammad, Sakineh Mohammad-Alizadeh-Charandabi, Ibrahim Mohammadzadeh, Shafiu Mohammed, Mustapha Mohammed, Ali H Mokdad, Stefania Mondello, Mohammad Ali Moni, Maryam Moradi, Shane Douglas Morrison, Elias Mossialos, Rohith Motappa, Francesk Mulita, Erin C Mullany, Yanjinlkham Munkhsaikhan, Efren Murillo-Zamora, Sani Musa, Ghulam Mustafa, Sathish Muthu, Woojae Myung, Pirouz Naghavi, Mohsen Naghavi, Ganesh R Naik, Hiten Naik, Gopal Nambi, Vinay Nangia, Jobert Richie Nansseu, Gustavo G Nascimento, Mahmoud Nassar, Zuhair S Natto, Javaid Nauman, Zakira Naureen, Samidi Nirasha Kumari Navaratna, Biswa Prakash Nayak, Md Fahad Shahariar Nayon, Athare Nazri-Panjaki, Masoud Negahdary, Ruxandra Irina Negoi, Ionut Negoi, Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi, Soroush Nematollahi, Samata Nepal, Henok Biresaw Netsere, Josephine W Ngunjiri, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Dang Nguyen, Trang Nguyen, Duc Hoang Nguyen, Phuong The Nguyen, Robina Khan Niazi, Luciano Nieddu, Mahdieh Niknam, Ali Nikoobar, Jan Rene Nkeck, Shuhei Nomura, Syed Toukir Ahmed Noor, Mamoona Noreen, Masoud Noroozi, None Nawsherwan, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Mehran Nouri, Chisom Adaobi Nri-Ezedi, Fred Nugen, Dieta Nurrika, Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam, Erin M O'Connell, Bogdan Oancea, James Odhiambo Oguta, In-Hwan Oh, Hassan Okati-Aliabad, Akinkunmi Paul Okekunle, Osaretin Christabel Okonji, Andrew T Olagunju, Oladotun Victor Olalusi, Timothy Olusegun Olanrewaju, Omotola O Olasupo, Gláucia Maria Moraes Oliveira, Arão Belitardo Oliveira, Yinka Doris Oluwafemi, Hany A Omar, Ahmed Omar Bali, Marcel Opitz, Michal Ordak, Alberto Ortiz, Augustus Osborne, Wael M S Osman, Alaa A M Osman, Uchechukwu Levi Osuagwu, Adrian Otoiu, Abdu Oumer, Amel Ouyahia, Mayowa O Owolabi, Irene Amoakoh Owusu, Kolapo Oyebola, Mahesh Padukudru P A, Alicia Padron-Monedero, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Sujogya Kumar Panda, Songhomitra Panda-Jonas, Anamika Pandey, Seithikurippu R Pandi-Perumal, Shahina Pardhan, Utsav Parekh, Pragyan Paramita Parija, Romil R Parikh, Eun-Cheol Park, Ava Pashaei, Roberto Passera, Hemal M Patel, Aslam Ramjan Pathan, Dimitrios Patoulias, George C Patton, Susan Paudel, Hamidreza Pazoki Toroudi, Umberto Pensato, Prince Peprah, Gavin Pereira, Marcos Pereira, Arokiasamy Perianayagam, Norberto Perico, Simone Perna, Ionela-Roxana Petcu, Fanny Emily Petermann-Rocha, Hoang Nhat Pham, Roman V Polibin, Djordje S Popovic, Farzad Pourghazi, Akram Pourshams, Jalandhar Pradhan, Pranil Man Singh Pradhan, Manya Prasad, Akila Prashant, Elton Junio Sady Prates, I Gusti Ngurah Edi Putra, Jagadeesh Puvvula, Ibrahim Qattea, Jia-Yong Qiu, Venkatraman Radhakrishnan, Maja R Radojčić, Catalina Raggi, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Fryad Majeed Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Mosiur Rahman, Saeed Rahmani, Vahid Rahmanian, Setyaningrum Rahmawaty, Rajesh Kumar Rai, Ivano Raimondo, Jeffrey Pradeep Raj, Prashant Rajput, Mahmoud Mohammed Ramadan, Chitra Ramasamy, Shakthi Kumaran Ramasamy, Sheena Ramazanu, Kritika Rana, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Mithun Rao, Sowmya J Rao, Sina Rashedi, Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi, Ashkan Rasouli-Saravani, Devarajan Rathish, Santosh Kumar Rauniyar, Ilari Rautalin, David Laith Rawaf, Salman Rawaf, Elrashdy M. Moustafa Mohamed Redwan, Sanika Rege, Ana Reis-Mendes, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Nazila Rezaei, Mohsen Rezaeian, Hossein Rezazadeh, Taeho Gregory Rhee, João Rocha Rocha-Gomes, Mónica Rodrigues, Thales Philipe Rodrigues da Silva, Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez, Leonardo Roever, Peter Rohloff, Debby Syahru Romadlon, Moustaq Karim Khan Rony, Gholamreza Roshandel, Himanshu Sekhar Rout, Nitai Roy, Godfrey M Rwegerera, Aly M A Saad, Maha Mohamed Saber-Ayad, Cameron John Sabet, Kabir P Sadarangani, Basema Ahmad Saddik, Masoumeh Sadeghi, Mohammad Reza Saeb, Umar Saeed, Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam, Sher Zaman Safi, Amene Saghazadeh, Dominic Sagoe, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Fatemeh Saheb Sharif-Askari, Soumya Swaroop Sahoo, Mirza Rizwan Sajid, Luciane B Salaroli, Mohamed A Saleh, Marwa Rashad Salem, Sohrab Salimi, Yoseph Leonardo Samodra, Vijaya Paul Samuel, Abdallah M Samy, Prasanna K Santhekadur, Milena M Santric-Milicevic, Muhammad Arif Nadeem Saqib, Ushasi Saraswati, Aswini Saravanan, Dianis Wulan Sari, Tanmay Sarkar, Mohammad Sarmadi, Sachin C Sarode, Gargi Sachin Sarode, Michele Sassano, Brijesh Sathian, Ganesh Kumar Saya, Christophe Schinckus, Maria Inês Schmidt, Art Schuermans, Aletta Elisabeth Schutte, Sneha Annie Sebastian, Siddharthan Selvaraj, Mohammad H Semreen, Ashenafi Kibret Sendekie, Pallav Sengupta, Yigit Can Senol, Subramanian Senthilkumaran, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Yashendra Sethi, Allen Seylani, Mahan Shafie, Sweni Shah, Syed Mahboob Shah, Samiah Shahid, Fatemeh Shahrahmani, Moyad Jamal Shahwan, Sunder Sham, Muhammad Aaqib Shamim, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Anas Shamsi, Alfiya Shamsutdinova, Dan Shan, Mohd Shanawaz, Mohammed Shannawaz, Medha Sharath, Sadaf Sharfaei, Amin Sharifan, Anupam Sharma, Ujjawal Sharma, Manoj Sharma, Vishal Sharma, Fateme Sheida, Ali Sheikhy, Rekha Raghuveer Shenoy, Pavanchand H Shetty, Kenji Shibuya, Desalegn Shiferaw, Min-Jeong Shin, Rahman Shiri, Aminu Shittu, Sina Shool, Seyed Afshin Shorofi, Rajan Shrestha, Kerem Shuval, Yafei Si, Nicole R S Sibuyi, Emmanuel Edwar Siddig, Ahmed Kamal Siddiqi, Mithun Sikdar, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, Luís Manuel Lopes Rodrigues Silva, Surjit Singh, Jasvinder A Singh, Amit Singh, Harmanjit Singh, Baljinder Singh, Kalpana Singh, Puneetpal Singh, Valentin Yurievich Skryabin, Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina, Amanda E Smith, Georgia Smith, Sameh S M Soliman, Soroush Soraneh, Reed J D Sorensen, Michael Spartalis, Bahadar S Srichawla, Panagiotis Stachteas, Antonina V Starodubova, Kurt Straif, Pete Stubbs, Vetriselvan Subramaniyan, Muritala Odidi Suleiman Odidi, Aleksander Sulkowski, Anusha Sultan Meo, Jing Sun, Zhong Sun, Sumam Sunny, Chandan Kumar Swain, Lukasz Szarpak, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Seyyed Mohammad Tabatabaei, Fatemeh Sadat Tabatabaei, Ozra Tabatabaei Malazy, Shima Tabatabai, Celine Tabche, Mohammad Tabish, Jabeen Taiba, Stella Talic, Mircea Tampa, Jacques Lukenze Tamuzi, Ker-Kan Tan, Manoj Tanwar, Saba Tariq, Nathan Y Tat, Seyed Mohammad Tavangar, Reem Mohamad Hani Temsah, Mohamad-Hani Temsah, Masayuki Teramoto, Dufera Rikitu Terefa, Jay Tewari, Rekha Thapar, Jansje Henny Vera Ticoalu, Sofonyas Abebaw Tiruneh, Tenaw Yimer Tiruye, Mariya Vladimirovna Titova, Krishna Tiwari, Sojit Tomo, Marcello Tonelli, Mathilde Touvier, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Khaled Trabelsi, Mai Thi Ngoc Tran, Thang Huu Tran, Nguyen Tran Minh Duc, Domenico Trico, Indang Trihandini, Thien Tan Tri Tai Truyen, Aristidis Tsatsakis, Gary Tse, Guesh Mebrahtom Tsegay, Munkhtuya Tumurkhuu, Sree Sudha T Y, Sok Cin Tye, Stefanos Tyrovolas, Aniefiok John Udoakang, Shahid Ullah, Saeed Ullah, Muhammad Umair, Umar Muhammad Umar, Lawan Umar, Brigid Unim, Dinesh Upadhya, Era Upadhyay, Jibrin Sammani Usman, Damla Ustunsoz, Asokan Govindaraj Vaithinathan, Jef Van den Eynde, Joe Varghese, Tommi Juhani Vasankari, Siavash Vaziri, Balachandar Vellingiri, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Madhur Verma, Anjul Verma, Georgios-Ioannis Verras, Simone Vidale, Victor E Villalobos-Daniel, Manish Vinayak, Vasily Vlassov, Theo Vos, Rade Vukovic, Mugi Wahidin, Mohammad Wahiduzzaman, Yanzhong Wang, Shu Wang, Cong Wang, Xingxin Wang, Mary Njeri Wanjau, Ahmed Bilal Waqar, Muhammad Waqas, Kosala Gayan Weerakoon, Fei-Long Wei, Anggi Lukman Wicaksana, Dakshitha Praneeth Wickramasinghe, Peter Willeit, Marcin W Wojewodzic, Tewodros Eshete Wonde, Utoomporn Wongsin, Qing Xia, Wanqing Xie, Suowen Xu, Xiaoyue Xu, Kazumasa Yamagishi, Yuichiro Yano, Haiqiang Yao, Amir Yarahmadi, Habib Yaribeygi, Subah Abderehim Yesuf, Dehui Yin, Dong Keon Yon, Naohiro Yonemoto, Chuanhua Yu, Chun-Wei Yuan, Deniz Yuce, Ismaeel Yunusa, Sojib Bin Zaman, Iman Zare, Michael Zastrozhin, Mohammed G M Zeariya, Xiaoyi Zhang, Liqun Zhang, Jingya Zhang, Zhiqiang Zhang, Casper J P Zhang, David X Zheng, Peng Zheng, Anthony Zhong, Claire Chenwen Zhong, Jiayan Zhou, Bin Zhu, Abzal Zhumagaliuly, Magdalena Zielińska, Ghazal Zoghi, Zhiyong Zou, Elric Zweck, Sa'ed H Zyoud, Christopher J L Murray, Susan M Sawyer, Stein Emil Vollset
Journal: The Lancet (2025)

Overweight and obesity is a global epidemic. Forecasting future trajectories of the epidemic is crucial for providing an evidence base for policy change. In this study, we examine the historical trends of the global, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity from 1990 to 2021 and forecast the future trajectories to 2050. Leveraging established methodology from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, we estimated the prevalence of overweight and obesity among individuals aged 25 years and older by age and sex for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2050. Retrospective and current prevalence trends were derived based on both self-reported and measured anthropometric data extracted from 1350 unique sources, which include survey microdata and reports, as well as published literature. Specific adjustment was applied to correct for self-report bias. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models were used to synthesise data, leveraging both spatial and temporal correlation in epidemiological trends, to optimise the comparability of results across time and geographies. To generate forecast estimates, we used forecasts of the Socio-demographic Index and temporal correlation patterns presented as annualised rate of change to inform future trajectories. We considered a reference scenario assuming the continuation of historical trends. Rates of overweight and obesity increased at the global and regional levels, and in all nations, between 1990 and 2021. In 2021, an estimated 1·00 billion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·989-1·01) adult males and 1·11 billion (1·10-1·12) adult females had overweight and obesity. China had the largest population of adults with overweight and obesity (402 million [397-407] individuals), followed by India (180 million [167-194]) and the USA (172 million [169-174]). The highest age-standardised prevalence of overweight and obesity was observed in countries in Oceania and north Africa and the Middle East, with many of these countries reporting prevalence of more than 80% in adults. Compared with 1990, the global prevalence of obesity had increased by 155·1% (149·8-160·3) in males and 104·9% (95% UI 100·9-108·8) in females. The most rapid rise in obesity prevalence was observed in the north Africa and the Middle East super-region, where age-standardised prevalence rates in males more than tripled and in females more than doubled. Assuming the continuation of historical trends, by 2050, we forecast that the total number of adults living with overweight and obesity will reach 3·80 billion (95% UI 3·39-4·04), over half of the likely global adult population at that time. While China, India, and the USA will continue to constitute a large proportion of the global population with overweight and obesity, the number in the sub-Saharan Africa super-region is forecasted to increase by 254·8% (234·4-269·5). In Nigeria specifically, the number of adults with overweight and obesity is forecasted to rise to 141 million (121-162) by 2050, making it the country with the fourth-largest population with overweight and obesity. No country to date has successfully curbed the rising rates of adult overweight and obesity. Without immediate and effective intervention, overweight and obesity will continue to increase globally. Particularly in Asia and Africa, driven by growing populations, the number of individuals with overweight and obesity is forecast to rise substantially. These regions will face a considerable increase in obesity-related disease burden. Merely acknowledging obesity as a global health issue would be negligent on the part of global health and public health practitioners; more aggressive and targeted measures are required to address this crisis, as obesity is one of the foremost avertible risks to health now and in the future and poses an unparalleled threat of premature disease and death at local, national, and global levels. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.