Trends in Surgical Overtreatment of Prostate Cancer
Authors: Steven M. Monda, Timothy Demus, Salvador Jaime-Casas, Sabir Meah, Arnav Srivastava, Richard Sarle, Corinne Labardee, Khurshid R. Ghani, Kevin M. Ginsburg, Todd M. Morgan, Tudor Borza
Journal: JAMA Oncology (2025)

Importance Overtreatment of prostate cancer is a public health concern that undermines prostate cancer screening efforts. Objective To assess trends in pathologic grade on prostatectomy during the past 2 decades as a surrogate for overtreatment. Design, Setting, and Participants This retrospective cohort study examined the grade of prostate cancer on final pathology reports among patients undergoing prostatectomy between January 1, 2010, and September 1, 2024, in 2 parallel cohorts: Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER), a nationwide cancer registry, and Michigan Urological Surgery Improvement Collaborative (MUSIC), a statewide clinical registry. The presence of higher-risk features among patients who underwent grade group 1 prostatectomy during this period was also assessed. Exposures The primary exposure of interest was year of radical prostatectomy. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was the proportion of all prostatectomies that were pathologic grade group 1 (pGG1) on final pathology reports. The secondary outcome was the proportion of pGG1 prostatectomies with a higher-risk preoperative feature, assessed as a binary variable and including at least 1 of the following: more than 50% of biopsy cores positive, prostate-specific antigen of 10 ng/mL or higher, or grade group 2 on biopsy. Results A total of 162 558 male patients in SEER (median [IQR] age, 63 [57-67] years) and 23 370 in MUSIC (median [IQR] age, 64 [59-69] years) underwent prostatectomy. The proportion of radical prostatectomies resulting in pGG1 on final pathology reports decreased from 32.4% (5852 of 18 071) to 7.8% (978 of 12 500) between 2010 and 2020 in SEER and from 20.7% (83 of 401) to 2.7% (32 of 1192) between 2012 and 2024 in MUSIC. A more recent prostatectomy was associated with a lower likelihood of a pGG1 prostatectomy while controlling for age and race within SEER (odds ratio [OR] per 5 years, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.40-0.42; P &amp;amp;lt; .001) and MUSIC (OR per 5 years, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.36-0.43; P &amp;amp;lt; .001). Within a subset analysis of those prostatectomies that were final pGG1, a more recent prostatectomy was associated with the presence of a higher-risk preoperative feature, including more than 50% of biopsy cores positive, prostate-specific antigen of 10 ng/mL or higher, and grade group 2 on prior biopsy within SEER (OR per 5 years, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.54-1.67; P &amp;amp;lt; .001) and MUSIC (OR per 5 years, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.34-1.90; P &amp;amp;lt; .001) Conclusions and Relevance This cohort study found that since 2010, the frequency of pGG1 prostatectomies markedly decreased, and those few that were performed were more likely to have a higher-risk feature. This reduction in the proportion of prostatectomies that are pGG1 likely reflects improved diagnostic pathways, adherence to active surveillance protocols for low-risk cases, and ongoing efforts at both the state and national levels to minimize unnecessary surgical interventions in patients diagnosed with clinically insignificant prostate cancer.