Biomarkers of Neurobiologic Recovery in Adults With Sport-Related Concussion
Authors: William T. O’Brien, Gershon Spitz, Becca Xie, Brendan P. Major, Steven Mutimer, Lauren P. Giesler, Jesse Bain, Lauren J. Evans, Beatriz Duarte Martins, Stefan Piantella, Afizu Alhassan, Shelby Brady, David Cappellari, Vincenzo Somma, Thomas McColl, Georgia F. Symons, Tenae Gore, Matthew Sun, Timothy Kuek, Seamus Horan, Michael Bei, Jennie L. Ponsford, Catherine Willmott, Jonathan Reyes, Nicholas J. Ashton, Henrik Zetterberg, Biswadev Mitra, Terence J. O’Brien, Sandy R. Shultz, Stuart J. McDonald
Journal: JAMA Network Open (2024)

Importance Sport-related concussion (SRC), a form of mild traumatic brain injury, is a prevalent occurrence in collision sports. There are no well-established approaches for tracking neurobiologic recovery after SRC. Objective To examine the levels of serum glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) and neurofilament light (NfL) in Australian football athletes who experience SRC. Design, Setting, and Participants A cohort study recruiting from April 10, 2021, to September 17, 2022, was conducted through the Victorian Amateur Football Association, Melbourne, Australia. Participants included adult Australian football players with or without SRC. Data analysis was performed from May 26, 2023, to March 27, 2024. Exposure Sport-related concussion, defined as at least 1 observable sign and/or 2 or more symptoms. Main Outcomes and Measures Primary outcomes were serum GFAP and NfL levels at 24 hours, and 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 12, and 26 weeks. Secondary outcomes were symptoms, cognitive performance, and return to training times. Results Eighty-one individuals with SRC (median age, 22.8 [IQR, 21.3-26.0] years; 89% male) and 56 control individuals (median age, 24.6 [IQR, 22.4-27.3] years; 96% male) completed a total of 945 of 1057 eligible testing sessions. Compared with control participants, those with SRC exhibited higher GFAP levels at 24 hours (mean difference [MD] in natural log, pg/mL, 0.66 [95% CI, 0.50-0.82]) and 4 weeks (MD, 0.17 [95% CI, 0.02-0.32]), and NfL from 1 to 12 weeks (1-week MD, 0.31 [95% CI, 0.12-0.51]; 2-week MD, 0.38 [95% CI, 0.19-0.58]; 4-week MD, 0.31 [95% CI, 0.12-0.51]; 6-week MD, 0.27 [95% CI, 0.07-0.47]; 8-week MD, 0.36 [95% CI, 0.15-0.56]; and 12-week MD, 0.25 [95% CI, 0.04-0.46]). Growth mixture modeling identified 2 GFAP subgroups: extreme prolonged (16%) and moderate transient (84%). For NfL, 3 subgroups were identified: extreme prolonged (7%), moderate prolonged (15%), and minimal or no change (78%). Individuals with SRC who reported loss of consciousness (LOC) (33% of SRC cases) had higher GFAP at 24 hours (MD, 1.01 [95% CI, 0.77-1.24]), 1 week (MD, 0.27 [95% CI, 0.06-0.49]), 2 weeks (MD, 0.21 [95% CI, 0.004-0.42]) and 4 weeks (MD, 0.34 [95% CI, 0.13-0.55]), and higher NfL from 1 week to 12 weeks (1-week MD, 0.73 [95% CI, 0.42-1.03]; 2-week MD, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.61-1.21]; 4-week MD, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.59-1.20]; 6-week MD, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.50-1.13]; 8-week MD, 0.73 [95% CI, 0.42-1.04]; and 12-week MD, 0.54 [95% CI, 0.22-0.85]) compared with SRC participants without LOC. Return to training times were longer in the GFAP extreme compared with moderate subgroup (incident rate ratio [IRR], 1.99 [95% CI, 1.69-2.34]; NfL extreme (IRR, 3.24 [95% CI, 2.63-3.97]) and moderate (IRR, 1.43 [95% CI, 1.18-1.72]) subgroups compared with the minimal subgroup, and for individuals with LOC compared with those without LOC (IRR, 1.65 [95% CI, 1.41-1.93]). Conclusions and Relevance In this cohort study, a subset of SRC cases, particularly those with LOC, showed heightened and prolonged increases in GFAP and NfL levels, that persisted for at least 4 weeks. These findings suggest that serial biomarker measurement could identify such cases, guiding return to play decisions based on neurobiologic recovery. While further investigation is warranted, the association between prolonged biomarker elevations and LOC may support the use of more conservative return to play timelines for athletes with this clinical feature.