Global, regional, and national burden of neck pain, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Authors: Ai-Min Wu, Marita Cross, James M Elliott, Garland T Culbreth, Lydia M Haile, Jaimie D Steinmetz, Hailey Hagins, Jacek A Kopec, Peter M Brooks, Anthony D Woolf, Deborah R Kopansky-Giles, David M Walton, Julia M Treleaven, Karsten E Dreinhoefer, Neil Betteridge, Mitra Abbasifard, Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari, Isaac Yeboah Addo, Miracle Ayomikun Adesina, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Janardhana P Aithala, Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhalaiqa, Yousef Alimohamadi, Sohrab Amiri, Hubert Amu, Benny Antony, Jalal Arabloo, Aleksandr Y Aravkin, Mohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi, Gamechu Hunde Atomsa, Sina Azadnajafabad, Ahmed Y Azzam, Soroush Baghdadi, Saliu A Balogun, Asaminew Birhanu Balta, Maciej Banach, Morteza Banakar, Amadou Barrow, Azadeh Bashiri, Alehegn Bekele, Isabela M Bensenor, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Ajay Nagesh Bhat, Awraris Hailu Bilchut, Andrew M Briggs, Rachelle Buchbinder, Chao Cao, Akhilanand Chaurasia, Jesus Lorenzo Chirinos-Caceres, Steffan Wittrup McPhee Christensen, Kaleb Coberly, Ewerton Cousin, Omid Dadras, Xiaochen Dai, Katie de Luca, Azizallah Dehghan, Huan-Ji Dong, Michael Ekholuenetale, Muhammed Elhadi, Habitu Birhan Eshetu, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Farshid Etaee, Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe, Jawad Fares, Ali Fatehizadeh, Alireza Feizkhah, Manuela L Ferreira, Nuno Ferreira, Florian Fischer, Richard Charles Franklin, Balasankar Ganesan, Mathewos Alemu Gebremichael, Urge Gerema, Ali Gholami, Sherief Ghozy, Tiffany K Gill, Mahaveer Golechha, Pouya Goleij, Davide Golinelli, Simon Matthew Graham, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Netanja I Harlianto, Jan Hartvigsen, Mohammad Hasanian, Mohammed Bheser Hassen, Simon I Hay, Jeffrey J Hebert, Golnaz Heidari, Amir Human Hoveidaei, Alexander Kevin Hsiao, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Chidozie C D Iwu, Louis Jacob, Manthan Dilipkumar Janodia, Yingzhao Jin, Jost B. Jonas, Charity Ehimwenma Joshua, Himal Kandel, Yousef Saleh Khader, Himanshu Khajuria, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Moien AB Khan, Moawiah Mohammad Khatatbeh, Sorour Khateri, Hamid Reza Khayat Kashani, Mohammad Saeid Khonji, Jagdish Khubchandani, Yun Jin Kim, Adnan Kisa, Ali-Asghar Kolahi, Hamid Reza Koohestani, Kewal Krishan, Mohammed Kuddus, Ambily Kuttikkattu, Savita Lasrado, Yo Han Lee, Samson Mideksa Legesse, Stephen S Lim, Xuefeng Liu, Justin Lo, Narges Malih, Shisir Prasad Manandhar, Elezebeth Mathews, Mohamed Kamal Mesregah, Tomislav Mestrovic, Ted R Miller, Seyed Peyman Mirghaderi, Awoke Misganaw, Esmaeil Mohammadi, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H Mokdad, Sara Momtazmanesh, Mohammad Ali Moni, Ebrahim Mostafavi, Christopher J L Murray, Tapas Sadasivan Nair, Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi, Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam, In-Hwan Oh, Osaretin Christabel Okonji, Mayowa O Owolabi, Kevin Pacheco-Barrios, Mohammad Taha Pahlevan Fallahy, Seoyeon Park, Jay Patel, Shrikant Pawar, Paolo Pedersini, Mario F P Peres, Ionela-Roxana Petcu, Mohammadreza Pourahmadi, Ibrahim Qattea, Pradhum Ram, Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi, Salman Rawaf, Nazila Rezaei, Negar Rezaei, Umar Saeed, Fatemeh Saheb Sharif-Askari, Saina Salahi, Monika Sawhney, Austin E Schumacher, Mahan Shafie, Saeed Shahabi, Ataollah Shahbandi, Ali Shamekh, Saurab Sharma, Rahman Shiri, Parnian Shobeiri, Ehsan Sinaei, Ambrish Singh, Jasvinder A. Singh, Paramdeep Singh, Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina, Amanda E Smith, Mohammad Tabish, Ker-Kan Tan, Masresha Derese Tegegne, Samar Tharwat, Seyed Mohammad Vahabi, Sahel Valadan Tahbaz, Tommi Juhani Vasankari, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Stein Emil Vollset, Yuan-Pang Wang, Taweewat Wiangkham, Naohiro Yonemoto, Moein Zangiabadian, Iman Zare, Dawit T Zemedikun, Peng Zheng, Kanyin Liane Ong, Theo Vos, Lyn M March
Journal: The Lancet Rheumatology (2024)

Background Neck pain is a highly prevalent condition that leads to considerable pain, disability, and economic cost.We present the most current estimates of neck pain prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) by age, sex, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050. MethodsSystematic reviews identified population-representative surveys used to estimate the prevalence of and YLDs from neck pain in 204 countries and territories, spanning from 1990 to 2020, with additional data from opportunistic review.Medical claims data from Taiwan (province of China) were also included.Input data were pooled using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool.Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor and multiplying by projected population estimates.We present 95% UIs for every metric based on the 2•5th and 97•5th percentiles of 100 draws of the posterior distribution.Findings Globally, in 2020, neck pain affected 203 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 163-253) people.The global age-standardised prevalence rate of neck pain was estimated to be 2450 (1960-3040) per 100 000 population and global age-standardised YLD rate was estimated to be 244 (165-346) per 100 000.The age-standardised prevalence rate remained stable between 1990 and 2020 (percentage change 0•2% [-1•3 to 1•7]).Globally, females had a higher agestandardised prevalence rate (2890 [2330-3620] per 100 000) than males (2000 [1600-2480] per 100 000), with the prevalence peaking between 45 years and 74 years in male and female sexes.By 2050, the estimated global number of neck pain cases is projected to be 269 million (219-322), with an increase of 32•5% (23•9-42•3) from 2020 to 2050.Decomposition analysis of the projections showed population growth was the primary contributing factor, followed by population ageing.Interpretation Although age-standardised rates of neck pain have remained stable over the past three decades, by 2050 the projected case numbers are expected to rise.With the highest prevalence in older adults (higher in females than males), a larger effect expected in low-income and middle-income countries, and a rapidly ageing global population, neck pain continues to pose a challenge in terms of disability burden worldwide.For future planning, it is essential we improve our mechanistic understanding of the different causes and risk factors for neck pain and prioritise the consistent collection of global neck pain data and increase the number of countries with data on neck pain.