Prevalence and Early Identification of Autism Spectrum Disorder Among Children Aged 4 and 8 Years — Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network, 16 Sites, United States, 2022
Authors: Kelly A. Shaw, Susan Williams, Mary E. Patrick, Miguel Valencia-Prado, Maureen S. Durkin, Ellen M. Howerton, Christine M. Ladd-Acosta, Elise T. Pas, Amanda V. Bakian, Paige Bartholomew, Nancy Nieves-Muñoz, Kate Sidwell, Amy Alford, Deborah A. Bilder, Monica DiRienzo, Robert T. Fitzgerald, Sarah M. Furnier, Allison E. Hudson, Olivia M. Pokoski, Lindsay Shea, Sarah C. Tinker, Zachary Warren, Walter Zahorodny, Hilcon Agosto-Rosa, Joshua Anbar, Katheleen Y. Chavez, Amy Esler, Allison Forkner, Andrea Grzybowski, Azza Hagel Agib, Libby Hallas, Maya Lopez, Sandy Magaña, Ruby H.N. Nguyen, Jaylaan Parker, Karen Pierce, Tyra Protho, Hilda Torres, Sandra B. Vanegas, Alison Vehorn, Minyu Zhang, Jennifer Andrews, Felicia Greer, Jennifer Hall-Lande, Dedria McArthur, Madison Mitamura, Angel J. Montes, Sydney Pettygrove, Josephine Shenouda, Carolyn Skowyra, Anita Washington, Matthew J. Maenner
Journal: MMWR Surveillance Summaries (2025)

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD). 2022. The Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network is an active surveillance program that estimates prevalence and characteristics of ASD and monitors timing of ASD identification among children aged 4 and 8 years. In 2022, a total of 16 sites (located in Arizona, Arkansas, California, Georgia, Indiana, Maryland, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Tennessee, Texas [two sites: Austin and Laredo], Utah, and Wisconsin) conducted surveillance for ASD among children aged 4 and 8 years and suspected ASD among children aged 4 years. Surveillance included children who lived in the surveillance area at any time during 2022. Children were classified as having ASD if they ever received 1) an ASD diagnostic statement in a comprehensive developmental evaluation, 2) autism special education eligibility, or 3) an ASD International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) code in the 299 range or International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) code of F84.0, F84.3, F84.5, F84.8, or F84.9. Children aged 4 years were classified as having suspected ASD if they did not meet the case definition for ASD but had an evaluator's suspicion of ASD documented in a comprehensive developmental evaluation. Among children aged 8 years in 2022, ASD prevalence was 32.2 per 1,000 children (one in 31) across the 16 sites, ranging from 9.7 in Texas (Laredo) to 53.1 in California. The overall observed prevalence estimate was similar to estimates calculated using Bayesian hierarchical and random effects models. ASD was 3.4 times as prevalent among boys (49.2) than girls (14.3). Overall, ASD prevalence was lower among non-Hispanic White (White) children (27.7) than among Asian or Pacific Islander (A/PI) (38.2), American Indian or Alaska Native (AI/AN) (37.5), non-Hispanic Black or African American (Black) (36.6), Hispanic or Latino (Hispanic) (33.0), and multiracial children (31.9). No association was observed between ASD prevalence and neighborhood median household income (MHI) at 11 sites; higher ASD prevalence was associated with lower neighborhood MHI at five sites.Record abstraction was completed for 15 of the 16 sites for 8,613 children aged 8 years who met the ASD case definition. Of these 8,613 children, 68.4% had a documented diagnostic statement of ASD, 67.3% had a documented autism special education eligibility, and 68.9% had a documented ASD ICD-9 or ICD-10 code. All three elements of the ASD case definition were present for 34.6% of children aged 8 years with ASD.Among 5,292 (61.4% of 8,613) children aged 8 years with ASD with information on cognitive ability, 39.6% were classified as having an intellectual disability. Intellectual disability was present among 52.8% of Black, 50.0% of AI/AN, 43.9% of A/PI, 38.8% of Hispanic, 32.7% of White, and 31.2% of multiracial children with ASD. The median age of earliest known ASD diagnosis was 47 months and ranged from 36 months in California to 69.5 months in Texas (Laredo).Cumulative incidence of ASD diagnosis or eligibility by age 48 months was higher among children born in 2018 (aged 4 years in 2022) than children born in 2014 (aged 8 years in 2022) at 13 of the 15 sites that were able to abstract records. Overall cumulative incidence of ASD diagnosis or eligibility by age 48 months was 1.7 times as high among those born in 2018 compared with those born in 2014 and ranged from 1.4 times as high in Arizona and Georgia to 3.1 times as high in Puerto Rico. Among children aged 4 years, for every 10 children meeting the case definition of ASD, one child met the definition of suspected ASD.Children with ASD who were born in 2018 had more evaluations and identification during ages 0-4 years than children with ASD who were born in 2014 during the 0-4 years age window, with an interruption in the pattern in early 2020 coinciding with onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.Overall, 66.5% of children aged 8 years with ASD had a documented autism test. Use of autism tests varied widely across sites: 24.7% (New Jersey) to 93.5% (Puerto Rico) of children aged 8 years with ASD had a documented autism test in their records. The most common tests documented for children aged 8 years were the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule, Autism Spectrum Rating Scales, Childhood Autism Rating Scale, Gilliam Autism Rating Scale, and Social Responsiveness Scale. Prevalence of ASD among children aged 8 years was higher in 2022 than previous years. ASD prevalence was higher among A/PI, Black, and Hispanic children aged 8 years than White children aged 8 years, continuing a pattern first observed in 2020. A/PI, Black, and Hispanic children aged 8 years with ASD were also more likely than White or multiracial children with ASD to have a co-occurring intellectual disability. Identification by age 48 months was higher among children born in 2018 compared with children born in 2014, suggesting increased early identification consistent with historical patterns. Increased identification of autism, particularly among very young children and previously underidentified groups, underscores the increased demand and ongoing need for enhanced planning to provide equitable diagnostic, treatment, and support services for all children with ASD. The substantial variability in ASD identification across sites suggests opportunities to identify and implement successful strategies and practices in communities to ensure all children with ASD reach their potential.