Global Effect of Modifiable Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality
Authors: Christina Magnussen, Francisco M Ojeda, Darryl P Leong, Jesus Alegre-Diaz, Philippe Amouyel, Larissa Aviles-Santa, Dirk De Bacquer, Christie M Ballantyne, Antonio Bernabé-Ortiz, Martin Bobak, Hermann Brenner, Rodrigo M Carrillo-Larco, James de Lemos, Annette Dobson, Marcus Dörr, Chiara Donfrancesco, Wojciech Drygas, Robin P Dullaart, Gunnar Engström, Marco M Ferrario, Jean Ferrières, Giovanni de Gaetano, Uri Goldbourt, Clicerio Gonzalez, Guido Grassi, Allison M Hodge, Kristian Hveem, Licia Iacoviello, M Kamran Ikram, Vilma Irazola, Modou Jobe, Pekka Jousilahti, Pontiano Kaleebu, Maryam Kavousi, Frank Kee, Davood Khalili, Wolfgang Koenig, Anna Kontsevaya, Kari Kuulasmaa, Karl J Lackner, David M Leistner, Lars Lind, Allan Linneberg, Thiess Lorenz, Magnus Nakrem Lyngbakken, Reza Malekzadeh, Sofia Malyutina, Ellisiv B Mathiesen, Olle Melander, Andres Metspalu, J Jaime Miranda, Marie Moitry, Joseph Mugisha, Mahdi Nalini, Vijay Nambi, Toshiharu Ninomiya, Karen Oppermann, Eleonora d'Orsi, Andrzej Pająk, Luigi Palmieri, Demosthenes Panagiotakos, Arokiasamy Perianayagam, Annette Peters, Hossein Poustchi, Andrew M Prentice, Eva Prescott, Ulf Risérus, Veikko Salomaa, Susana Sans, Satoko Sakata, Ben Schöttker, Aletta E Schutte, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Sanjib Kumar Sharma, Jonathan E Shaw, Leon A Simons, Stefan Söderberg, Abdonas Tamosiunas, Barbara Thorand, Hugh Tunstall-Pedoe, Raphael Twerenbold, Diego Vanuzzo, Giovanni Veronesi, Julia Waibel, S Goya Wannamethee, Masafumi Watanabe, Philipp S Wild, Yao Yao, Yi Zeng, Andreas Ziegler, Stefan Blankenberg
Journal: New England Journal of Medicine (2023)

Five modifiable risk factors are associated with cardiovascular disease and death from any cause. Studies using individual-level data to evaluate the regional and sex-specific prevalence of the risk factors and their effect on these outcomes are lacking. Download a PDF of the Research Summary. We pooled and harmonized individual-level data from 112 cohort studies conducted in 34 countries and 8 geographic regions participating in the Global Cardiovascular Risk Consortium. We examined associations between the risk factors (body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, non–high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, current smoking, and diabetes) and incident cardiovascular disease and death from any cause using Cox regression analyses, stratified according to geographic region, age, and sex. Population-attributable fractions were estimated for the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease and 10-year all-cause mortality. Among 1,518,028 participants (54.1% of whom were women) with a median age of 54.4 years, regional variations in the prevalence of the five modifiable risk factors were noted. Incident cardiovascular disease occurred in 80,596 participants during a median follow-up of 7.3 years (maximum, 47.3), and 177,369 participants died during a median follow-up of 8.7 years (maximum, 47.6). For all five risk factors combined, the aggregate global population-attributable fraction of the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease was 57.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 52.4 to 62.1) among women and 52.6% (95% CI, 49.0 to 56.1) among men, and the corresponding values for 10-year all-cause mortality were 22.2% (95% CI, 16.8 to 27.5) and 19.1% (95% CI, 14.6 to 23.6). Harmonized individual-level data from a global cohort showed that 57.2% and 52.6% of cases of incident cardiovascular disease among women and men, respectively, and 22.2% and 19.1% of deaths from any cause among women and men, respectively, may be attributable to five modifiable risk factors. (Funded by the German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK); ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05466825.) QUICK TAKE VIDEO SUMMARYModifiable Risk Factors, Cardiovascular Disease, and Mortality 02:13