Global, regional, and national burden of other musculoskeletal disorders, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Authors: Tiffany K Gill, Manasi Murthy Mittinty, Lyn M March, Jaimie D Steinmetz, Garland T Culbreth, Marita Cross, Jacek A Kopec, Anthony D Woolf, Lydia M Haile, Hailey Hagins, Kanyin Liane Ong, Deborah R Kopansky-Giles, Karsten E Dreinhoefer, Neil Betteridge, Mohammadreza Abbasian, Mitra Abbasifard, krishna Abedi, Miracle Ayomikun Adesina, Janardhana P Aithala, Mostafa Akbarzadeh-Khiavi, Yazan Al Thaher, Tariq A Alalwan, Hosam Alzahrani, Sohrab Amiri, Benny Antony, Jalal Arabloo, Aleksandr Y Aravkin, Ashokan Arumugam, Krishna K Aryal, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Alok Atreya, Soroush Baghdadi, Mainak Bardhan, Lope H Barrero, Lindsay M Bearne, Alehegn Bekele Bekele, Isabela M Bensenor, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Rajbir Bhatti, Ali Bijani, Theresa Bordianu, Souad Bouaoud, Andrew M Briggs, Huzaifa Ahmad Cheema, Steffan Wittrup McPhee Christensen, Isaac Sunday Chukwu, Benjamin Clarsen, Xiaochen Dai, Katie de Luca, Belay Desye, Meghnath Dhimal, Thanh Chi Do, Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe, Siamak Farokh Forghani, Nuno Ferreira, Balasankar Ganesan, Mesfin Gebrehiwot, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Simon Matthew Graham, Netanja I Harlianto, Jan Hartvigsen, Ahmed I Hasaballah, Mohammad Hasanian, Mohammed Bheser Hassen, Simon I Hay, Mohammad Heidari, Alexander Kevin Hsiao, Irena M Ilic, Mohammad Jokar, Himanshu Khajuria, Md Jobair Khan, Praval Khanal, Sorour Khateri, Ali Kiadaliri, Min Seo Kim, Adnan Kisa, Ali-Asghar Kolahi, Kewal Krishan, Vijay Krishnamoorthy, Iván Landires, Bagher Larijani, Thao Thi Thu Le, Yo Han Lee, Stephen S Lim, Justin Lo, Seyedeh Panid Madani, Jeadran N Malagón-Rojas, Iram Malik, Hamid Reza Marateb, Ashish J Mathew, Tuomo J Meretoja, Mohamed Kamal Mesregah, Tomislav Mestrovic, Alireza Mirahmadi, Awoke Misganaw, Sadra Mohaghegh, Ali H Mokdad, Kaveh Momenzadeh, Sara Momtazmanesh, Lorenzo Monasta, Mohammad Ali Moni, Yousef Moradi, Ebrahim Mostafavi, Jibran Sualeh Muhammad, Christopher J L Murray, Sathish Muthu, Shumaila Nargus, Hasan Nassereldine, Subas Neupane, Robina Khan Niazi, In-Hwan Oh, Hassan Okati-Aliabad, Abderrahim Oulhaj, Kevin Pacheco-Barrios, Seoyeon Park, Jay Patel, Shrikant Pawar, Paolo Pedersini, Mario F P Peres, Ionela-Roxana Petcu, Fanny Emily Petermann-Rocha, Mohsen Poursadeqiyan, Ibrahim Qattea, Maryam Faiz Qureshi, Quinn Rafferty, Shahram Rahimi-Dehgolan, Mosiur Rahman, Shakthi Kumaran Ramasamy, Vahid Rashedi, Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed Redwan, Daniel Cury Ribeiro, Leonardo Roever, Azam Safary, Dominic Sagoe, Fatemeh Saheb Sharif-Askari, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Sana Salehi, Amir Shafaat, Saeed Shahabi, Saurab Sharma, Bereket Beyene Shashamo, Rahman Shiri, Ambrish Singh, Helen Slater, Amanda E Smith, Dev Ram Sunuwar, Mohammad Tabish, Samar Tharwat, Irfan Ullah, Sahel Valadan Tahbaz, Tommi Juhani Vasankari, Jorge Hugo Villafañe, Stein Emil Vollset, Taweewat Wiangkham, Naohiro Yonemoto, Yuyi You, Iman Zare, Peng Zheng, Theo Vos, Peter M Brooks
Journal: The Lancet Rheumatology (2023)

Musculoskeletal disorders include more than 150 different conditions affecting joints, muscles, bones, ligaments, tendons, and the spine. To capture all health loss from death and disability due to musculoskeletal disorders, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) includes a residual musculoskeletal category for conditions other than osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, gout, low back pain, and neck pain. This category is called other musculoskeletal disorders and includes, for example, systemic lupus erythematosus and spondylopathies. We provide updated estimates of the prevalence, mortality, and disability attributable to other musculoskeletal disorders and forecasted prevalence to 2050.Prevalence of other musculoskeletal disorders was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using data from 68 sources across 23 countries from which subtraction of cases of rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis, low back pain, neck pain, and gout from the total number of cases of musculoskeletal disorders was possible. Data were analysed with Bayesian meta-regression models to estimate prevalence by year, age, sex, and location. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence and disability weights. Mortality attributed to other musculoskeletal disorders was estimated using vital registration data. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 by regressing prevalence estimates from 1990 to 2020 with Socio-demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by population forecasts.Globally, 494 million (95% uncertainty interval 431-564) people had other musculoskeletal disorders in 2020, an increase of 123·4% (116·9-129·3) in total cases from 221 million (192-253) in 1990. Cases of other musculoskeletal disorders are projected to increase by 115% (107-124) from 2020 to 2050, to an estimated 1060 million (95% UI 964-1170) prevalent cases in 2050; most regions were projected to have at least a 50% increase in cases between 2020 and 2050. The global age-standardised prevalence of other musculoskeletal disorders was 47·4% (44·9-49·4) higher in females than in males and increased with age to a peak at 65-69 years in male and female sexes. In 2020, other musculoskeletal disorders was the sixth ranked cause of YLDs globally (42·7 million [29·4-60·0]) and was associated with 83 100 deaths (73 600-91 600).Other musculoskeletal disorders were responsible for a large number of global YLDs in 2020. Until individual conditions and risk factors are more explicitly quantified, policy responses to this burden remain a challenge. Temporal trends and geographical differences in estimates of non-fatal disease burden should not be overinterpreted as they are based on sparse, low-quality data.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.