International comparisons of laboratory values from the 4CE collaborative to predict COVID-19 mortality
Authors: Griffin M. Weber, Chuan Hong, Zongqi Xia, Nathan P. Palmer, Paul Avillach, Sehi L’Yi, Mark S. Keller, Shawn N. Murphy, Alba Gutiérrez-Sacristán, Clara-Lea Bonzel, Arnaud Serret-Larmande, Antoine Neuraz, Gilbert S. Omenn, Shyam Visweswaran, Jeffrey G. Klann, Andrew M. South, Ne Hooi Will Loh, Mario Cannataro, Brett K. Beaulieu-Jones, Riccardo Bellazzi, Giuseppe Agapito, Mario Alessiani, Bruce J. Aronow, Douglas S. Bell, Vincent Benoit, Florence T. Bourgeois, Luca Chiovato, Kelly Cho, Arianna Dagliati, Scott L. DuVall, Noelia García Barrio, David A. Hanauer, Yuk-Lam Ho, John H. Holmes, Richard W. Issitt, Molei Liu, Yuan Luo, Kristine E. Lynch, Sarah E. Maidlow, Alberto Malovini, Kenneth D. Mandl, Chengsheng Mao, Michael E. Matheny, Jason H. Moore, Jeffrey S. Morris, Michele Morris, Danielle L. Mowery, Kee Yuan Ngiam, Lav P. Patel, Miguel Pedrera-Jimenez, Rachel B. Ramoni, Emily R. Schriver, Petra Schubert, Pablo Serrano Balazote, Anastasia Spiridou, Amelia L. M. Tan, Byorn W. L. Tan, Valentina Tibollo, Carlo Torti, Enrico M. Trecarichi, Xuan Wang, James R. Aaron, Adem Albayrak, Giuseppe Albi, Anna Alloni, Danilo F. Amendola, François Angoulvant, Li L. L. J. Anthony, Fatima Ashraf, Andrew Atz, Paul Avillach, Paula S. Azevedo, James Balshi, Brett K. Beaulieu-Jones, Antonio Bellasi, Vincent Benoit, Michele Beraghi, José Luis Bernal-Sobrino, Mélodie Bernaux, Romain Bey, Surbhi Bhatnagar, Alvar Blanco-Martínez, Martin Boeker, John Booth, Silvano Bosari, Robert L. Bradford, Gabriel A. Brat, Stéphane Bréant, Nicholas W. Brown, Raffaele Bruno, William A. Bryant, Mauro Bucalo, Emily Bucholz, Anita Burgun, Tianxi Cai, Aldo Carmona, Charlotte Caucheteux, Julien Champ, Krista Y. Chen, Jin Chen, Lorenzo Chiudinelli, Kelly Cho, James J. Cimino, Tiago K. Colicchio, Sylvie Cormont, Sébastien Cossin, Jean B. Craig, Juan Luis Cruz-Bermúdez, Jaime Cruz-Rojo, Mohamad Daniar, Christel Daniel, Priyam Das, Batsal Devkota, Audrey Dionne, Rui Duan, Julien Dubiel, Loic Esteve, Hossein Estiri, Shirley Fan, Robert W. Follett, Thomas Ganslandt, Noelia García-Barrio, Lana X. Garmire, Nils Gehlenborg, Emily J. Getzen, Alon Geva, Tobias Gradinger, Alexandre Gramfort, Romain Griffier, Nicolas Griffon, Olivier Grisel, Alba Gutiérrez-Sacristán, Larry Han, David A. Hanauer, Christian Haverkamp, Derek Y. Hazard, Bing He, Darren W. Henderson, Martin Hilka, Kenneth M. Huling, Meghan R. Hutch, Richard W. Issitt, Anne Sophie Jannot, Vianney Jouhet, Ramakanth Kavuluru, Chris J. Kennedy, Kate F. Kernan, Daniel A. Key, Katie Kirchoff, Jeffrey G. Klann, Isaac S. Kohane, Ian D. Krantz, Detlef Kraska, Ashok K. Krishnamurthy, Trang T. Le, Judith Leblanc, Guillaume Lemaitre, Leslie Lenert, Damien Leprovost, Molei Liu, Qi Long, Sara Lozano-Zahonero, Sadiqa Mahmood, Sarah E. Maidlow, Adeline Makoudjou, Anupama Maram, Patricia Martel, Marcelo R. Martins, Jayson S. Marwaha, Aaron J. Masino, Maria Mazzitelli, Arthur Mensch, Marianna Milano, Marcos F. Minicucci, Bertrand Moal, Taha Mohseni Ahooyi, Jason H. Moore, Cinta Moraleda, Jeffrey S. Morris, Karyn L. Moshal, Sajad Mousavi, Douglas A. Murad, Shawn N. Murphy, Thomas P. Naughton, Carlos Tadeu Breda Neto, Jane Newburger, Kee Yuan Ngiam, Wanjiku F. M. Njoroge, James B. Norman, Jihad Obeid, Marina P. Okoshi, Karen L. Olson, Gilbert S. Omenn, Nina Orlova, Brian D. Ostasiewski, Nathan P. Palmer, Nicolas Paris, Lav P. Patel, Miguel Pedrera-Jiménez, Ashley C. Pfaff, Emily R. Pfaff, Danielle Pillion, Sara Pizzimenti, Hans U. Prokosch, Robson A. Prudente, Andrea Prunotto, Víctor Quirós-González, Rachel B. Ramoni, Maryna Raskin, Siegbert Rieg, Gustavo Roig-Domínguez, Pablo Rojo, Paula Rubio-Mayo, Paolo Sacchi, Carlos Sáez, Elisa Salamanca, Malarkodi Jebathilagam Samayamuthu, L. Nelson Sanchez-Pinto, Arnaud Sandrin, Nandhini Santhanam, Janaina C. C. Santos, Fernando J. Sanz Vidorreta, Maria Savino, Juergen Schuettler, Luigia Scudeller, Neil J. Sebire, Pablo Serrano-Balazote, Patricia Serre, Arnaud Serret-Larmande, Mohsin Shah, Zahra Shakeri Hossein Abad, Domenick Silvio, Piotr Sliz, Jiyeon Son, Charles Sonday, Andrew M. South, Francesca Sperotto, Zachary H. Strasser, Amelia L. M. Tan, Bryce W. Q. Tan, Suzana E. Tanni, Deanne M. Taylor, Ana I. Terriza-Torres, Patric Tippmann, Emma M. S. Toh, Yi-Ju Tseng, Andrew K. Vallejos, Gael Varoquaux, Margaret E. Vella, Guillaume Verdy, Jill-Jênn Vie, Shyam Visweswaran, Michele Vitacca, Kavishwar B. Wagholikar, Lemuel R. Waitman, Demian Wassermann, Griffin M. Weber, Martin Wolkewitz, Scott Wong, Zongqi Xia, Xin Xiong, Ye Ye, Nadir Yehya, William Yuan, Alberto Zambelli, Harrison G. Zhang, Daniela Zöller, Valentina Zuccaro, Chiara Zucco, Isaac S. Kohane, Tianxi Cai, Gabriel A. Brat
Journal: npj Digital Medicine (2022)

Abstract Given the growing number of prediction algorithms developed to predict COVID-19 mortality, we evaluated the transportability of a mortality prediction algorithm using a multi-national network of healthcare systems. We predicted COVID-19 mortality using baseline commonly measured laboratory values and standard demographic and clinical covariates across healthcare systems, countries, and continents. Specifically, we trained a Cox regression model with nine measured laboratory test values, standard demographics at admission, and comorbidity burden pre-admission. These models were compared at site, country, and continent level. Of the 39,969 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 (68.6% male), 5717 (14.3%) died. In the Cox model, age, albumin, AST, creatine, CRP, and white blood cell count are most predictive of mortality. The baseline covariates are more predictive of mortality during the early days of COVID-19 hospitalization. Models trained at healthcare systems with larger cohort size largely retain good transportability performance when porting to different sites. The combination of routine laboratory test values at admission along with basic demographic features can predict mortality in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. Importantly, this potentially deployable model differs from prior work by demonstrating not only consistent performance but also reliable transportability across healthcare systems in the US and Europe, highlighting the generalizability of this model and the overall approach.