Global, regional and national temporal trends in prevalence for musculoskeletal disorders in women of childbearing age, 1990–2019: an age-period-cohort analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Authors: Fan Cao, Da-Peng Li, Guo-Cui Wu, Yi-Sheng He, Yu-Chen Liu, Jing-Jing Hou, Qin-Yu Ni, Li-Ming Tao, Zheng-Xuan Jiang, Hai-Feng Pan
Journal: Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases (2023)

Objectives To provide an overview and in-depth analysis of temporal trends in prevalence of musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders in women of childbearing age (WCBA) at global, regional and national levels over the last 30 years, with a special focus on their associations with age, period and birth cohort. Methods Estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for MSK disorders prevalence in WCBA were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study 2019. An age-period-cohort model was adopted to estimate the overall annual percentage change of prevalence ( net drift , % per year), annual percentage change of prevalence within each age group ( local drift , % per year), fitted longitudinal age-speciﬁc rates adjusted for period deviations (age effects) and period/cohort relative risks (period/cohort effects) from 1990 to 2019. Results In 2019, the global number of MSK disorders prevalence in WCBA was 354.57 million (95% UI: 322.64 to 387.68). Fifty countries had at least one million prevalence, with India, China, the USA, Indonesia and Brazil being the highest accounting for 51.03% of global prevalence. From 1990 to 2019, a global net drift of MSK disorders prevalence in WCBA was −0.06% (95% CI: −0.07% to −0.05%) per year, ranging from −0.09% (95% CI: −0.10% to −0.07%) in low-middle sociodemographic index (SDI) region to 0.10% (95% CI: 0.08% to 0.12%) in high-middle SDI region, with 138 countries presenting increasing trends, 24 presenting decreasing trends and 42 presenting relatively flat trends. As reflected by local drift , higher SDI regions had more age groups showing rising prevalence whereas lower SDI regions had more declining prevalence. Globally, an increasing occurrence of MSK disorders prevalence in WCBA beyond adolescent and towards the adult stage has been prominent. Age effects illustrated similar patterns across different SDI regions, with risk increasing with age. High SDI region showed generally lower period risks over time, whereas others showed more unfavourable period risks. High, high-middle and middle SDI regions presented unfavourable prevalence deteriorations, whereas others presented favourable prevalence improvements in successively birth cohorts. Conclusions Although a favourable overall temporal trend ( net drift ) of MSK disorders prevalence in WCBA was observed over the last 30 years globally, there were 138 countries showing unfavourable rising trends, coupled with deteriorations in period/cohort risks in many countries, collectively raising concerns about timely realisation of the Targets of Sustainable Development Goal. Improvements in the MSK disorders-related prevention, management and treatment programmes in WCBA could decline the relative risk for successively younger birth cohorts and for all age groups over period progressing.