Make or break time
Authors: None The Lancet Planetary Health
Journal: The Lancet Planetary Health (2019)

It is possible to view the last few years as a period in which we have made good progress on climate change. We had the landmark Paris Agreement in late 2016 setting out an international framework for keeping climate warming below 2°C above pre-industrial levels (and aspiring for 1·5 °C). Numerous rounds of IPCC Assessment Reports have demonstrated clear actionable evidence, based on a rapidly growing body of science, and in late 2018 the IPCC produced a so called Special Report on Global Warming of 1·5 °C which mapped out the relative impacts of climate changes of 1·5 and 2°C of warming and the emissions pathways needed to keep warming within these limits. Most recently there has been a rapid upsurge in public awareness and concern, particularly among the young, perhaps driven by growing understanding of the scientific evidence or perhaps by the increasingly obviously altered conditions we keep experiencing. Whatever the cause the increased public attention and growth of mass activism has led a number of national and regional governments to declare a climate emergency with many now aiming for net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 or earlier. The last few years has also seen a groundswell of engagement from medical professionals with many medical organisations and vocal individuals declaring their concern about the health impacts of unchecked climate change and the many health benefits of policies to curtail climate change. Additionally we have seen truly impressive progress in renewable energy, particularly solar and wind and associated battery technologies, with rapid reductions in unit cost and as a result tremendous growth in installed capacity at a time when coal power is declining steeply. This all sounds encouraging but in spite of these positive steps global CO2 emissions have remained inexorably on the rise. The juxtaposition of increasing public awareness and concern about climate change and insufficient progress in tackling the problem is making many feel worried about the future, including their own wellbeing and even whether it is wise to have children, such that the term eco-anxiety has moved into the popular lexicon. Although the Paris Agreement was deliberately structured in such a way as to ratchet up ambition over time, it is clear that if we are to even get close to limiting warming to 2°C we need a step change in efforts with a tangible impact on emissions and very soon. It is with precisely this in mind that UN Secretary-General António Guterres has convened the UN Climate Action Summit to be held in New York this September, with the aim of encouraging leaders to come with ambitious but also practical, implementable plans that will form the basis for the revision of nationally determined contributions when nations update their emissions pledges next year. Some of the clearest and loudest voices on the mismatch between the action needed to tackle the climate crisis and the actual level of progress to date are youth voices, most notably Gretta Thunberg and the Fridays for future school strike movement which has grown to have global reach. A Feature in this issue looks at how the youth movement has grown to make such an impact in the last year or so, culminating in the September Global Strike aimed at influencing the UN Climate Action Summit. We also have a Comment reflecting on the particular value of youth engagement for Planetary Health and some of the steps needs to make youth engagement genuinely meaningful. In the light of the growing youth voice on climate it is refreshing to see that there will for the first time be a youth focussed component to the UN Summit. This is designed to be a platform for young people who are pushing for climate action to showcase their solutions and engage with decision-makers on the key issues. The Global Strikes between September 20–27, which will bracket the UN climate talks, are expected to be largest climate demonstration in history involving millions of people across 2500 events in 117 countries. These demonstrations involve everyone but have been driven by youth activism. Of course, young people are generally still far from the corridors of power but there is evidence that the sway in public opinion they are garnering is beginning to change the conversation, even during these politically hostile times. For example, it's hard to imagine just months ago that many key Democratic candidates in the US would take part in 7 hours of back to back televised discussion of their climate policies, with nearly all advocating for net zero emission by 2050. There is room for cautious optimism but as the youth keep reminding us our house is on fire and we aren't acting like it.