Combining molecular and functional imaging in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC).
Authors: Vincenza Conteduca, Emanuela Scarpi, Daniel Wetterskog, Paola Caroli, Alessandro Romanel, Cristian Lolli, Anuradha Jayaram, Giorgia Gurioli, Nicole Brighi, Giulia Poti, Anna Wingate, Giuseppe Schepisi, Federica Matteucci, Giovanni Paganelli, Francesca Demichelis, Gerhardt Attard, Ugo De Giorgi
Journal: Journal of Clinical Oncology (2021)

141 Background: Recently, plasma tumour DNA (ptDNA) has been identified as a potential early noninvasive biomarker of treatment response in mCRPC patients ( Conteduca, Br J Cancer 2020). In this study, we sought to determine whether pre-treatment ptDNA could accurately reflect metabolic tumor burden in mCRPC and if it could be in combination with functional imaging could provide better prognostication. Methods: Between October 2011 and June 2016, 102 plasma samples from mCRPC patients treated with abiraterone or enzalutamide were collected. Targeted next-generation sequencing was performed to determine baseline ptDNA fraction. Maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax), total lesion activity (TLA), and metabolic tumour volume (MTV) were calculated on 18F-fluorocholine positron emission tomography/computed tomography. A Weibull multiple regression model was adopted to evaluate the combined impact of clinical, molecular and imaging features on overall survival (OS) and to obtain a prognostic score. Each variable was allotted a “partial score” that depended on the size of the regression coefficient. Total scores ranged between 0 and 5.85 and assigned patients to 3 different risk groups according to 18-months survival probability: group I, &gt;70%; group II 30%-70%; and group III, &lt;30%. We estimated OS probabilities by the exponential model and by the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: We observed a significant association between ptDNA levels dichotomized as below or above median plasma tumor fraction (low ptDNA≤0.188 versus high ptDNA&gt;0.188) and median SUVmax (p&lt;0.0001), MTV (p=0.0005) and TLA (p&lt;0.0001). Patients were randomly divided into a training set (n=68) and a validation set (n=34). In the training cohort, we performed a multivariable analysis showing that visceral metastasis, serum LDH, MTV and ptDNA were independent predictors of OS [HR=2.64, 95%CI 1.32-5.26, p=0.006; HR=3.69, 95%CI 1.98-6.87, p&lt;0.0001; HR=1.91, 95%CI 1.13-3.21, p=0.015; and HR=2.64, 95%CI 1.32-5.26, p=0.003, respectively]. In the training set, median OS was significantly different among the 3 risk groups (risk group I, 29.2 months [95% CI, 18.3 to 37.0 months]; risk group II, 15.9 months [95% CI, 10.6 to 24.0 months]; and risk group III, 8.7 months [95% CI, 6.3 to 15.4 months]; p&lt;0.0001). Similar results were observed in the validation set groups (risk group I, 23.4 months [95% CI, 8.1 to 38.5 months]; risk group II, 13.3 months [95% CI, 3.7 to 18.0 months]; and risk group III, 7.3 months [95% CI, 2.6 to 11.8 months]; p=0.001). Conclusions: Integrating plasma DNA analysis with functional imaging may improve prognostic risk stratification and treatment selection in mCRPC patients. A larger prospective evaluation is now warranted.