PREDICT identifies precipitating events associated with the clinical course of acutely decompensated cirrhosis
Authors: Jonel Trebicka, Javier Fernandez, Maria Papp, Paolo Caraceni, Wim Laleman, Carmine Gambino, Ilaria Giovo, Frank Erhard Uschner, Christian Jansen, Cesar Jimenez, Rajeshwar Mookerjee, Thierry Gustot, Agustin Albillos, Rafael Bañares, Peter Jarcuska, Christian Steib, Thomas Reiberger, Juan Acevedo, Pietro Gatti, Debbie L. Shawcross, Stefan Zeuzem, Alexander Zipprich, Salvatore Piano, Thomas Berg, Tony Bruns, Karen Vagner Danielsen, Minneke Coenraad, Manuela Merli, Rudolf Stauber, Heinz Zoller, José Presa Ramos, Cristina Solé, Germán Soriano, Andrea de Gottardi, Henning Gronbaek, Faouzi Saliba, Christian Trautwein, Haluk Tarik Kani, Sven Francque, Stephen Ryder, Pierre Nahon, Manuel Romero-Gomez, Hans Van Vlierberghe, Claire Francoz, Michael Manns, Elisabet Garcia-Lopez, Manuel Tufoni, Alex Amoros, Marco Pavesi, Cristina Sanchez, Michael Praktiknjo, Anna Curto, Carla Pitarch, Antonella Putignano, Esau Moreno, William Bernal, Ferran Aguilar, Joan Clària, Paola Ponzo, Zsuzsanna Vitalis, Giacomo Zaccherini, Boglarka Balogh, Alexander Gerbes, Victor Vargas, Carlo Alessandria, Mauro Bernardi, Pere Ginès, Richard Moreau, Paolo Angeli, Rajiv Jalan, Vicente Arroyo, Miriam Maschmeier, David Semela, Laure Elkrief, Ahmed Elsharkawy, Tamas Tornai, Istvan Tornai, Istvan Altorjay, Agnese Antognoli, Maurizio Baldassarre, Martina Gagliardi, Eleonora Bertoli, Sara Mareso, Alessandra Brocca, Daniela Campion, Giorgio Maria Saracco, Martina Rizzo, Jennifer Lehmann, Alessandra Pohlmann, Maximilian J. Brol, Johannes Chang, Robert Schierwagen, Elsa Solà, Nesrine Amari, Miguel Rodriguez, Frederik Nevens, Ana Clemente, Martin Janicko, Daniel Markwardt, Mattias Mandorfer, Christoph Welsch, Tanja M. Welzel, Emanuela Ciraci, Vish Patel, Cristina Ripoll, Adam Herber, Paul Horn, Flemming Bendtsen, Lise Lotte Gluud, Jelte Schaapman, Oliviero Riggio, Florian Rainer, Jörg Tobiasch Moritz, Mónica Mesquita, Edilmar Alvarado-Tapias, Osagie Akpata, Luise Aamann, Didier Samuel, Sylvie Tresson, Pavel Strnad, Roland Amathieu, Macarena Simón-Talero, Francois Smits, Natalie van den Ende, Javier Martinez, Rita Garcia, Harald Rupprechter, Cornelius Engelmann, Osman Cavit Özdogan
Journal: Journal of Hepatology (2020)

Acute decompensation (AD) of cirrhosis may present without acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) (AD-No ACLF), or with ACLF (AD-ACLF), defined by organ failure(s). Herein, we aimed to analyze and characterize the precipitants leading to both of these AD phenotypes. The multicenter, prospective, observational PREDICT study (NCT03056612) included 1,273 non-electively hospitalized patients with AD (No ACLF = 1,071; ACLF = 202). Medical history, clinical data and laboratory data were collected at enrolment and during 90-day follow-up, with particular attention given to the following characteristics of precipitants: induction of organ dysfunction or failure, systemic inflammation, chronology, intensity, and relationship to outcome. Among various clinical events, 4 distinct events were precipitants consistently related to AD: proven bacterial infections, severe alcoholic hepatitis, gastrointestinal bleeding with shock and toxic encephalopathy. Among patients with precipitants in the AD-No ACLF cohort and the AD-ACLF cohort (38% and 71%, respectively), almost all (96% and 97%, respectively) showed proven bacterial infection and severe alcoholic hepatitis, either alone or in combination with other events. Survival was similar in patients with proven bacterial infections or severe alcoholic hepatitis in both AD phenotypes. The number of precipitants was associated with significantly increased 90-day mortality and was paralleled by increasing levels of surrogates for systemic inflammation. Importantly, adequate first-line antibiotic treatment of proven bacterial infections was associated with a lower ACLF development rate and lower 90-day mortality. This study identified precipitants that are significantly associated with a distinct clinical course and prognosis in patients with AD. Specific preventive and therapeutic strategies targeting these events may improve outcomes in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Acute decompensation (AD) of cirrhosis is characterized by a rapid deterioration in patient health. Herein, we aimed to analyze the precipitating events that cause AD in patients with cirrhosis. Proven bacterial infections and severe alcoholic hepatitis, either alone or in combination, accounted for almost all (96-97%) cases of AD and acute-on-chronic liver failure. Whilst the type of precipitant was not associated with mortality, the number of precipitant(s) was. This study identified precipitants that are significantly associated with a distinct clinical course and prognosis of patients with AD. Specific preventive and therapeutic strategies targeting these events may improve patient outcomes.