Covid-19 in the city of Teofilo Otoni-Minas Gerais: Current panorama and future perspectives
Authors: L. R. Coelho, G. Da Mata Oliveira Rezende, V. B. De Aguiar, V. S. O. E Almeida Pinto, R. Genaro, R. A. Almeida, F. S. De Souza, C. C. De Souza Alves, L. De Oliveira Pinheiro, F. A. De Siqueira Santos, A. A. De Assis Dutra, A. C. A. E Silva, R. F. Macedo
Journal: Clinical Cancer Research (2020)

The Covid-19 pandemic presents itself as one of the greatest health challenges on a global scale  Brazil has thehighest number of cases and deaths in Latin America, given these underestimates  Teofilo Otoni is the polemunicipality of the northeast macroregion of Minas Gerais (MG) and its health network is a reference for 448,438inhabitants  The study aims to assess the current panorama of Covid-19 in the city of Teofilo Otoni, its futureperspective, and the impacts on mortality  For the preparation of this study, data were collected on Covid-19 inTeofilo Otoni according to official bulletins issued daily by the Health Department of the State of Minas Gerais  Adescriptive analysis of the data was carried out via a map with spatialization of the cases, and, for the numericalsimulation of the evolution of the cases, the epidemiologic mathematical model S I R (Susceptible, Infected andRecovered) was used, combining the Code Blocks software combined with Matlab  The northeastern macroregionhas high levels of illiteracy, many rural residents, and the presence of indigenous communities in situations of socialvulnerability  Thus, in this region are found about 54% of the municipalities classified among the 100 worst MunicipalHuman Development Indexes in MG  Although a reference, Teofilo Otoni, until April 12, had only 7 beds of intensivecare units (ICU) for Covid-19 The first confirmed case of the disease in the city occurred on April 22 and themunicipality followed the recommendations of the Ministry of Health, launched on April 6, to adopt the SelectiveSocial Distancing, since there were not more than 50% of the ICU beds occupied, thus helping the Expanded SocialDistancing that was being carried out  However, the cases increased, and on May 22 the city decreed the closure ofnonessential trade, intensifying the distance measures  Until June 8, Teofilo Otoni had 372 confirmed cases and 10deaths from Covid-19, which is worthy of the simulations of the research project “Covid-19/UFVJM Bulletin,” since298 and 535 infected were expected in the first week of this month, considering the contact rate close to reality(70%)  However, by another analysis, the numbers are high, since the expectation for the first week of June, withhorizontal isolation, was between 5 and 6 cases  In addition, it is imperative to highlight that deaths in the regiontend to increase, since, on June 7, the two main hospitals in the city had 100% of their beds occupied  It appearsthat Teofilo Otoni is in a situation of public calamity, since the health network is not prepared to receive all patientsreferred with Covid-19 and who require ICU, which corresponds to about 3% (13,453) of cases  This reinforces theneed to analyze epidemiologic data, expand the region's hospital network, and improve mitigation measures, as theforecasts can supplement public policies to contain the progress of the disease