The urban built environment and temperature-related mortality risk in a warming climate
Authors: Michail Zoumakis, Nikolaos Zoumakis, Michail Prevezanos
Journal: The Lancet Planetary Health (2017)

In their Article, Giovanni Forzieri and colleagues1Forzieri G Cescatti A Batista e Silva F Feyen L Increasing risk over time of weather-related hazards to the European population: a data-driven prognostic study.Lancet Planet Health. 2017; 1: e200-e208Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (151) Google Scholar provide plausible estimates of extreme weather-related risks for future European generations under a scenario of no adaptation. Another study2Gasparrini A Guo Y Hashizume M et al.Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study.Lancet. 2015; 386: 369-375Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (22) Google Scholar found that moderate temperatures cause most of the temperature-related mortality burden. People living in artificially cooled and heated environments might not be vulnerable to weather extremes because ambient temperature undoubtedly plays a partial direct role in explaining excess mortality. In such a volatile environment, with increasing urbanisation and uncontrolled mass immigration, as well as decreasing birth rates and increasing accumulation of older and vulnerable people, death almost inevitably might be triggered by other unpredictable factors,3Kinney Pl Schwartz J Pascal M et al.Winter season mortality: will climate warming bring benefits?.Environ Res Lett. 2015; 10: 064016Crossref PubMed Scopus (77) Google Scholar such as viral infections and other infectious diseases, disease transmission between individuals living in buildings with poor ventilation, indoor pollution, humidity, and crowding-related stress. As people often cannot avoid some of the most common outdoor activities, their lack of acclimatisation to ambient conditions renders these susceptible individuals at extreme risk even from moderate cold2Gasparrini A Guo Y Hashizume M et al.Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study.Lancet. 2015; 386: 369-375Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (22) Google Scholar and from sudden changes in weather conditions and air quality. Mortality in indoor and built environments seems to be a rather unpredictable occurrence, as it is not possible to predict with certainty the future evolution of such a volatile climate in a warming world. The extreme uncertainty limits of mortality risk in artificial environmental conditions arise from potentially complex interactions between the rate of climate change and the underlying vulnerability of natural and artificial ecosystems.4IPCCClimate change 2014: synthesis report. Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the IPCC. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva2014Google Scholar Serious limitations exist when using past exposure–response functions to project future heat-related mortality rates, because it is inherently impossible to quantify the complex interaction of temperature with future socioeconomic, demographic, health, and lifestyle factors. Adaptation effectiveness is strongly dependent on global warming rates and radical changes in consumer behaviour patterns. Rapid economic and cultural globalisation is fundamentally incompatible with ecological sustainability on a finite planet. As climate change is a multifaceted international crisis, most people will be expected to support their own way of life. The global warming that we face is therefore not primarily an ecological crisis, but rather a cultural crisis. We declare no competing interests. Increasing risk over time of weather-related hazards to the European population: a data-driven prognostic studyGlobal warming could result in rapidly rising costs of weather-related hazards to human beings in Europe unless adequate adaptation measures are taken. Our results could aid in prioritisation of regional investments to address the unequal burden of effects on human beings of weather-related hazards and differences in adaptation capacities. Full-Text PDF Open Access