Drought: a global environmental concern
Authors: Jay D Kravitz
Journal: The Lancet Planetary Health (2017)

The answer to a controversial question on the British Broadcasting Corporation website, "Are Kenya ranch invasions driven by drought or politics?",1Leithead A Are Kenya ranch invasions driven by drought or politics?.http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-38866389Date: Feb 4, 2017Google Scholar is a convoluted yes. This headline harkens back to my public health experiences in Africa and the concept of relative drought, which I coined as a global health educator to help to explain how the overuse of resources is a serious threat to quality of life and exacerbates the consequences of drought in low-income countries. The concept of relative drought implies far more than just a decline in precipitation. Presume that a village has sufficient resources to sustain a population of 100 people and a water source to support domestic needs and agricultural crops and livestock. However, a natural population increase to 200 people puts pressure on resources—local traditional herders now require more water and grazing resources for an increased number of livestock. Relative drought thus embraces a complex definition that is compounded by entrenched social, political, and economic realities. The village's water resource is unchanged, but is only able to support the original population size. With insufficient water, this community will fail because the carrying capacity of the environment can no longer meet the demands. While doing epidemiological research 25 years ago in the Lesotho Highlands of southern Africa, I observed a well intentioned range management demonstration project. Organised by an international non-governmental organisation and associated local livestock owners,2American AG InternationalLesotho Agricultural Production and Institutional Support Project.http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/Xdabh027a.pdfDate: 1992Google Scholar seasonal grazing areas were protected with fencing, which was intended as an educational model. A reduction in uncontrolled livestock pressures could provide some assurance that rotational grazing would be sustainable. As a result, grassland pastures flourished. However, some herders saw this benefit as an opportunity to keep an excessive number of goats, sheep, cattle, and horses—more undernourished animals won the value calculation compared with fewer fattened and healthier livestock, which led to the programme's failure. Livestock fencing was intentionally breached and overgrazing quickly left vegetation sparse and little opportunity for spent pasture restoration. Environmental pressure on this area was unsustainable thereby creating a state of drought. History nonetheless repeats itself: the British Broadcasting Corporation reported that traditional herders invaded protected pasture near Mount Kenya with thousands of cattle.1Leithead A Are Kenya ranch invasions driven by drought or politics?.http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-38866389Date: Feb 4, 2017Google Scholar Formerly, agreements between landowners and herders restricted overgrazing that would upset the delicate balance of parched savannah grassland. Although extended drought is justifiably blamed for the loss of productive pastureland, poor range management is a serious underlying contributor. The savannah is being decimated by excessive population demands and political measures that are ineffective in educating local herders about exploitation excess. Drought has plagued northern Kenya in recent years. As water supplies have diminished in the Lake Turkana region, semi-nomadic tribes along the Kenyan–Ethiopian border come into conflict because herders have insufficient grazing and water to sustain their livestock. Agricultural yields are insufficient3Yale Environment 360When the water ends: Africa's climate conflicts.http://e360.yale.edu/feature/when_the_water_ends_africas_climate_conflicts/2331/Date: Oct 26, 2010Google Scholar and consequential food insecurity has required assistance from governmental agencies and non-governmental organisations. However, the fact that Kenya's population has grown to more than 48 million in 2017, which is an increase of 120% over the past 30 years, is concerning.4WorldometersKenya population.http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/kenya-population/Google Scholar Certainly, this is not a problem faced in east Africa alone, as drought is an all too frequent occurrence across the continent. Although drought can occur globally, perhaps Africa is a special case, where more than half of the predicted world population growth over the next 30 years will occur. Of the world population of 9·7 billion projected by 2050, 25% will reside in Africa.5Ferris R World population: quarter of Earth will be African in 2050.http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/30/world-population-quarter-of-earth-will-be-african-in-2050.htmlDate: July 30, 2015Google Scholar, 6Khokhar T Kashiwase H The future of the world's population in 4 charts.http://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/future-world-s-population-4-chartsDate: Aug 5, 2015Google Scholar Community outreach programmes engaging government and committed local citizens should address agricultural priorities, water management, population constraints, and public health to emphasise the hazards of living beyond the carrying capacity of the environment. Without concerted and remedial attention to these complex issues, quality of life cannot improve in Kenya or similar world ecosystems unless stressors that magnify drought are clearly identified and mitigated. I declare no competing interests.