Association of Change in Cardiovascular Risk Factors With Incident Cardiovascular Events
Authors: Thomas T. van Sloten, Muriel Tafflet, Marie-Cécile Périer, Aline Dugravot, Rachel E. D. Climie, Archana Singh-Manoux, Jean-Philippe Empana
Journal: JAMA (2018)

<h3>Importance</h3> There is consistent evidence of the association between ideal cardiovascular health and lower incident cardiovascular disease (CVD); however, most studies used a single measure of cardiovascular health. <h3>Objective</h3> To examine how cardiovascular health changes over time and whether these changes are associated with incident CVD. <h3>Design, Setting, and Participants</h3> Prospective cohort study in a UK general community (Whitehall II), with examinations of cardiovascular health from 1985/1988 (baseline) and every 5 years thereafter until 2015/2016 and follow-up for incident CVD until March 2017. <h3>Exposures</h3> Using the 7 metrics of the American Heart Association (nonsmoking; and ideal levels of body mass index, physical activity, diet, blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, and total cholesterol), participants with 0 to 2, 3 to 4, and 5 to 7 ideal metrics were categorized as having low, moderate, and high cardiovascular health. Change in cardiovascular health over 10 years between 1985/1988 and 1997/1999 was considered. <h3>Main Outcome and Measure</h3> Incident CVD (coronary heart disease and stroke). <h3>Results</h3> The study population included 9256 participants without prior CVD (mean [SD] age at baseline, 44.8 [6.0] years; 2941 [32%] women), of whom 6326 had data about cardiovascular health change. Over a median follow-up of 18.9 years after 1997/1999, 1114 incident CVD events occurred. In multivariable analysis and compared with individuals with persistently low cardiovascular health (consistently low group, 13.5% of participants; CVD incident rate per 1000 person-years, 9.6 [95% CI, 8.4-10.9]), there was no significant association with CVD risk in the low to moderate group (6.8% of participants; absolute rate difference per 1000 person-years, −1.9 [95% CI, −3.9 to 0.1]; HR, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.66-1.08]), the low to high group, (0.3% of participants; absolute rate difference per 1000 person-years, −7.7 [95% CI, −11.5 to −3.9]; HR, 0.19 [95% CI, 0.03-1.35]), and the moderate to low group (18.0% of participants; absolute rate difference per 1000 person-years, −1.3 [95% CI, −3.0 to 0.3]; HR, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.80-1.15]). A lower CVD risk was observed in the consistently moderate group (38.9% of participants; absolute rate difference per 1000 person-years, −4.2 [95% CI, −5.5 to −2.8]; HR, 0.62 [95% CI, 0.53-0.74]), the moderate to high group (5.8% of participants; absolute rate difference per 1000 person-years, −6.4 [95% CI, −8.0 to −4.7]; HR, 0.39 [95% CI, 0.27-0.56]), the high to low group (1.9% of participants; absolute rate difference per 1000 person-years, −5.3 [95% CI, −7.8 to −2.8]; HR, 0.49 [95% CI, 0.29-0.83]), the high to moderate group (9.3% of participants; absolute rate difference per 1000 person-years, −4.5 [95% CI, −6.2 to −2.9]; HR, 0.66 [95% CI, 0.51-0.85]), and the consistently high group (5.5% of participants; absolute rate difference per 1000 person-years, −5.6 [95% CI, −7.4 to −3.9]; HR, 0.57 [95% CI, 0.40-0.80]). <h3>Conclusions and Relevance</h3> Among a group of participants without CVD who received follow-up over a median 18.9 years, there was no consistent relationship between direction of change in category of a composite metric of cardiovascular health and risk of CVD.