Climate change, famine, and low-income communities challenge Sustainable Development Goals
Authors: Muniyandi Balasubramanian
Journal: The Lancet Planetary Health (2018)

Climate change has not affected the world equally,1UNClimate change resilience an opportunity for reducing inequalities, world economic and social survey.https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/publication/world-economic-and-social-survey-2016-climate-change-resilience-an-opportunity-for-reducing-inequalities/Date: 2016Date accessed: September 9, 2018Google Scholar as people of lower socioeconomic status and some communities have experienced more negative effects than others—eg, those below and above sea level. Many developing countries, like India, are celebrating their economic achievements in terms of gross domestic product growth without acknowledging environmental problems and the wellbeing of people on low-incomes. Moreover, floods and droughts are common problems in many Asian countries every year, and their frequency is expected to increase. Some communities that are socially, economically, and politically discriminated against—eg, scheduled castes and scheduled tribes—have been more heavily affected by climate change than others. According to the Government of India, in 2011, the population of scheduled castes was 201·4 million (more than the population of western Europe) and that of scheduled tribes was 104·3 million (equal to the population of northern Europe). Yet, 31·5% of individuals from scheduled castes and 45·3% from scheduled tribes still live in poverty; these figures are above the national average according to the Suresh Tendulkar Committee's estimate of poverty in India.2Panagariya A More V Poverty by social, religious and economic groups in India and its largest states 1993–94 to 2011–12.Indian Growth and Development Review. 2014; 7: 203-230Crossref Scopus (14) Google Scholar The global population living in poverty has declined in the past 15 years to approximately 1 billion people.3World BankPoverty and shared prosperity 2016: taking on inequality.https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/25078/9781464809583.pdfDate: 2016Date accessed: September 21, 2018Google Scholar However, many people in African countries still live in poverty—eg, 66·26% of the population in the Central African Republic in 2008, 77·08% in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 2012, 77·84% in Madagascar in 2012, and 70·91% in Malawi in 2010.4Roser M Ortiz-Ospina E Global extreme poverty: our world in data.https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-povertyDate: 2017Date accessed: September 21, 2018Google Scholar People on low-incomes are more affected by climate change.5Hallegatte S Rozenberg J Climate change through a poverty lens.Nat Clim Chang. 2017; 7: 250-256Crossref Scopus (167) Google Scholar, 6Skoufias E Rabassa M Olivieri S The poverty impacts of climate change: a review of the evidence. World Bank, 2011https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/3389Date accessed: September 21, 2018Crossref Google Scholar Many studies have investigated links between climate change, poverty, and agricultural prices, but few have been done in low-income communities or focused on climate change and undernutrition at the national and international levels. By 2030, the combination of climate change and poverty is estimated to affect between 35 million and 122 million people, depending on whether an optimistic or a pessimistic scenario is used.5Hallegatte S Rozenberg J Climate change through a poverty lens.Nat Clim Chang. 2017; 7: 250-256Crossref Scopus (167) Google Scholar Food, water, sanitation, and shelter are basic requirements for human survival, but all four are getting harder to access for low-income communities in developing countries, because of climate change and institutional failure to help to adapt to it. India's growing population, which is expected to exceed that of China around 2024,7UNWorld population prospects: the 2017 revision, key findings and advance tables.https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/publications/files/wpp2017_keyfindings.pdfDate: 2017Date accessed: September 21, 2018Google Scholar and climate change are expected to be the biggest challenges to food and nutrition security in India.8Rao N Pradhan M Roy D Gender justice and food security in India: a review. International Food Policy Research Institute, 2017file:///C:/Users/OCONNOR2/Downloads/131265.pdfDate accessed: September 21, 2018Google Scholar Various studies have already shown a link between climate change and global agricultural productivity at the global level.9Lobell DB Schlenker Costa-Roberts J Climate trends and global crop production since 1980.Science. 2011; 333: 616-620Crossref PubMed Scopus (2484) Google Scholar, 10Battisti DS Naylor RL Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat.Science. 2009; 323: 240-244Crossref PubMed Scopus (1133) Google Scholar, 11Wheeler T Kay M Food crop production, water, and climate change in the developing world.Outlook Agric. 2010; 39: 239-243Crossref Scopus (23) Google Scholar, 12Tai AP Martin MV Heald CL Threat to future global food security from climate change and ozone air pollution.Nat Clim Chang. 2014; 4: 817-821Crossref Scopus (336) Google Scholar Undernourishment increased in central African countries, (Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Chad and Rwanda), from 33·5% of the population in 1990–92 to 41·3% in 2014–16. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN,13Food and Agriculture OrganizationThe impact of disaster on agriculture and food security.http://www.fao.org/3/a-i5128e.pdfDate: 2015Date accessed: September 21, 2018Google Scholar the proportion of the population who were undernourished was largest in the Central African Republic (47·7%) and second largest in Namibia (42·3%). Consequently, stunting in children is expected to increase in some African communities by 7·5% by 2030 because of climate change.14WHOQuantitative risk assessment of the effects of climate change on selected causes of death, 2030s and 2050s.http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/134014/9789241507691_eng.pdfDate: 2014Date accessed: September 21, 2018Google Scholar Asia has the largest population in the world, at 4·5 billion people in 2017, which is predicted to grow to 4·8 billion in 2100.7UNWorld population prospects: the 2017 revision, key findings and advance tables.https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/publications/files/wpp2017_keyfindings.pdfDate: 2017Date accessed: September 21, 2018Google Scholar 2437 natural disasters occurred in Asia from 2006 to 2015,15International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent SocietiesWorld disaster report 2016.https://www.ifrc.org/Global/Documents/Secretariat/201610/WDR%202016-FINAL_web.pdfDate: 2016Date accessed: September 21, 2018Google Scholar and lower-income communities were the worst affected; for example, in 2010, 70% of farmers in Pakistan lost their expected income because of flooding. Overall, Asia loses the most money because of crop and livestock destruction—ie, the region lost roughly US$48 billion between 2003 and 2013.13Food and Agriculture OrganizationThe impact of disaster on agriculture and food security.http://www.fao.org/3/a-i5128e.pdfDate: 2015Date accessed: September 21, 2018Google Scholar The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development13Food and Agriculture OrganizationThe impact of disaster on agriculture and food security.http://www.fao.org/3/a-i5128e.pdfDate: 2015Date accessed: September 21, 2018Google Scholar has estimated that most lower-income countries will face a food deficit by 2025; they predict that average food production will be 16 788·94 million tons, but consumption will be 39 962·67 million tons. For example, in 2025, Sudan's food production will be 544·17 million tons while consumption will be 5685·13 million tons, and Nigeria's food production will be 83·39 million tons while consumption will be 5302·18 million tons. Global food availability is predicted to fall by 3·2% by 2050 because of climate change.16Springmann M Mason-D'Croz D Robinson S et al.Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study.Lancet. 2016; 387: 1937-1946Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (236) Google Scholar Additionally, in a quantitative risk assessment of the effects of climate change on selected causes of death, WHO estimate that, by 2050, developing countries will face increasing mortality due to climate-related heat, with increased diarrhoea, malaria, undernutrition, dengue, and coastal flooding.14WHOQuantitative risk assessment of the effects of climate change on selected causes of death, 2030s and 2050s.http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/134014/9789241507691_eng.pdfDate: 2014Date accessed: September 21, 2018Google Scholar Overall, climate change, decreasing agricultural production, increasing undernutrition and a lack of public health services in developing countries are major challenges to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030, especially SDG 2 (end hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture). Fortunately, many developing countries have introduced schemes to help achieve this goal of ending hunger, and India is among them. For example, in 2013, Tamil Nadu, a state in southern India, introduced Amma Canteen (food courts); a subsidised meal programme for people on low-incomes. The scheme is a populist model for providing affordable and healthy cooked food—eg, breakfast is $0·08, lunch is $0·15, and dinner is $0·08. Migrants, unskilled labourers and students receive the greatest benefit from the scheme. Moreover, Tamil Nadu has pioneered midday meals for school children, which has improved school enrolment and health status among participating children. This state has also made efforts to make nutritious food more available for pregnant women and decrease hunger among people of lower socioeconomic status.17Rajendran S Amma Unavagams of Tamil Nadu.Econ Polit Wkly. 2013; 48: 23Google Scholar, 18BBCAmma canteen: where an Indian meal costs only seven cents.http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-36659670Date: July 4, 2016Date accessed: September 9, 2018Google Scholar Most developing countries are searching for the best model for a food security programme to reduce hunger and improve nutrition, and amma canteen is a good example of a scheme that is successful economically, socially, and politically. Other states in India (Madhya Pradesh, Andra Pradesh, Karnataka, Rajasthan, and Odisha) have also introduced schemes to provide affordable cooked food to people on low-incomes. I declare no competing interests.