Impact of a changing climate on global stability, wellbeing, and planetary health
Authors: Neil Morisetti, Jason J Blackstock
Journal: The Lancet Planetary Health (2017)

Climate change is a global concern for reasons far beyond environmental preservation. Modern societies have developed over centuries with agricultural, economic, and social systems acclimated to climate patterns that have been remarkably stable. The rapid, human-induced, climate change now underway presents grave new risks for geopolitical and societal stability—both foundational prerequisites for global prosperity, wellbeing, and health. The most commonly identified risk to stability from climate change stems from its role as a stress multiplier in already vulnerable regions of the world.1CNANational Security and the threat of climate change. The CNA Corporation, 2007https://www.cna.org/CNA_files/pdf/National%20Security%20and%20the%20Threat%20of%20Climate%20Change.pdfGoogle Scholar The Arab Spring can be cited as a case example of how climate-exacerbated shortages of food and water can spark existing tensions.2Werrell CE Femia F Slaughter AM The Arab Spring and climate change. Centre for American Progress, 2013https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/reports/2013/02/28/54579/the-arab-spring-and-climate-change/Google Scholar Yet numerous countries around the world are already experiencing similarly combined pains of food and water shortages, rapid population growth, and weak governance.3Development, Concepts and Doctrine CentreGlobal strategic trends out to 2045. UK Ministry of Defence, 2014https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/global-strategic-trends-out-to-2045Google Scholar The additional strain of extreme weather events (eg, droughts, heat waves, or flooding) or changes in long-stable climate patterns on the livelihoods and social fabric of these countries notably increases the risk of societal instability. In some cases, these strains manifest as drivers for the mass movement of people within and between countries. Peter Gleick4Gleick PH Water, drought, climate change, and conflict in Syria.Weather Clim Soc. 2014; 6: 331-340Crossref Scopus (423) Google Scholar highlighted how the movement of farmers from rural areas to cities, and the subsequent stress that this movement placed on the urban communities, was one contributing factor to the conflict in Syria, itself a driver of the migration crisis in Europe. In other cases, where populations are unable to relocate, they must find alternative sources of income and food, making elements within them increasingly susceptible to recruitment by radicalising non-state actors, such as Al-Qaeda or Boko Haram.5US Department of Defense2014 climate change adaptation roadmap.https://www.scribd.com/doc/242845848/Read-DoD-report-2014-Climate-Change-Adaptation-RoadmapGoogle Scholar In all cases, the foundational stability required to build prosperous, healthy societies, is jeopardised. The impact of these risks cannot be isolated in our globalised world. Increased migration pressures and radical terrorism are international challenges. But the interconnected risks go deeper. With instability, or even just increased risk, in regions such as the Middle East and North Africa and the Sahel comes volatility in the prices of raw materials and energy; potential disruption to supply chains; and the loss of markets for finished products. All of these factors impact the stability of the global economy and, to differing degrees, that of every nation. Economic risks of climate change are too manifold to cover here.6Stern NP The economics of climate change: the Stern review. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge2007Crossref Scopus (6203) Google Scholar But in an era increasingly defined by the politics of perceived scarcity and inequality, the cumulative risk to national and global economic productivity represents an important catalyst of social tensions. Although limiting climate risk cannot alleviate the underling tensions, it would at least avoid exacerbating them. One interconnected health-economic risk that has, to date, been insufficiently examined is that of climate change impacts on the already pressured health-care systems of developed countries. In the past four decades, the demands of ageing populations, expanding prevalence of chronic disease, the delivery of new innovative techniques, and increasing public expectations have led to roughly a doubling the share of gross domestic product (GDP) that Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries spend on health care; future projections anticipate a similar increase in the next four decades.7Maisonneuve C Martins JO The future of health and long-term care spending.OECD J: Econ Stud. 2014; 2014: 61-96Crossref Google Scholar However, in the case of OECD countries these projections make no mention of climate change. According to WHO, the health impacts of climate change will include temperature-related illness and death; injuries and illness due to extreme weather events; the spread of infectious disease vectors; increases in water-borne illness; and wide-ranging impacts from air pollution.8WHOClimate change and human health.http://www.who.int/globalchange/environment/en/Google Scholar Accurately projecting the consequences of these impacts on national health-care costs will not be easy. Such estimation will be even more challenging in the case of developing and emerging economies, where the foundations for modern health care are still being laid. But given the increasing scale of health-care costs relative to GDP, answering this question is essential, and some non OECD countries, including in the Middle East and North Africa, have done so.9Sileem HH Health expenditure, climate changes and corruption in the MENA region: a Granger causality approach.J Afr Dev. 2016; 18: 61-72Google Scholar Failure by all countries to plan for these impacts risks the stability of both our national financial and health-care systems. Reduction of the long-term risks of climate change to planetary health requires substantial cuts to global greenhouse gas emissions. The focus for that activity is the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change process and, in particular, moving forward on the agreements reached in Paris in 2015. However, it is equally important that nations act today to address the near-term risks already posed by the climatic change being brought about by previous emissions and locked into the system for the near-future. This action will require an integrated, pan-governmental, and intergovernmental approach. To date, international and national institutions have been slow to adapt; issues are still addressed in isolation. The onus is on governments to lead and they need to understand that action will be required not just by themselves but also between government and all of society. Only then will a coherent approach that addresses all the negative aspects of a changing climate be possible; 21st century challenges require 21st century solutions. We declare no competing interests.