Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Authors: Christopher J L Murray, Charlton S K H Callender, Xie Rachel Kulikoff, Vinay Srinivasan, Degu Abate, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Solomon M Abay, Nooshin Abbasi, Hedayat Abbastabar, Jemal Abdela, Ahmed Abdelalim, Omar Abdel-Rahman, Alireza Abdi, Nasrin Abdoli, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Haftom Temesgen Abebe, Molla Abebe, Zegeye Abebe, Teshome Abuka Abebo, Ayenew Negesse Abejie, Victor Aboyans, Haftom Niguse Abraha, Daisy Maria Xavier Abreu, Aklilu Roba Abrham, Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad, Niveen M E Abu-Rmeileh, Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi, Pawan Acharya, Abdu A Adamu, Oladimeji M Adebayo, Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji, Victor Adekanmbi, Olatunji O Adetokunboh, Beyene Meressa Adhena, Tara Ballav Adhikari, Mina G Adib, Arsène Kouablan Adou, Jose C Adsuar, Mohsen Afarideh, Ashkan Afshin, Gina Agarwal, Kareha M Agesa, Sargis Aghasi Aghayan, Sutapa Agrawal, Alireza Ahmadi, Mehdi Ahmadi, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Sayem Ahmed, Amani Nidhal Aichour, Ibtihel Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour, Ali S Akanda, Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari, Mohammed Akibu, Rufus Olusola Akinyemi, Tomi Akinyemiju, Nadia Akseer, Fares Alahdab, Ziyad Al-Aly, Khurshid Alam, Animut Alebel, Alicia V Aleman, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Ayman Al-Eyadhy, Raghib Ali, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Reza Alizadeh-Navaei, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Ala'a Alkerwi, François Alla, Peter Allebeck, Ali Almasi, Jordi Alonso, Rajaa M Al-Raddadi, Ubai Alsharif, Khalid Altirkawi, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Azmeraw T Amare, Walid Ammar, Nahla Hamed Anber, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Sofia Androudi, Megbaru Debalkie Animut, Hossein Ansari, Mustafa Geleto Ansha, Carl Abelardo T Antonio, Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah, Olatunde Aremu, Habtamu Abera Areri, Nicholas Arian, Johan Ärnlöv, Al Artaman, Krishna K Aryal, Hamid Asayesh, Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw, Solomon Weldegebreal Asgedom, Reza Assadi, Tesfay Mehari Mehari Atey, Suleman Atique, Madhu Sudhan Atteraya, Marcel Ausloos, Euripide F G A Avokpaho, Ashish Awasthi, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Yohanes Ayele, Rakesh Ayer, Tambe B Ayuk, Peter S Azzopardi, Tesleem Kayode Babalola, Arefeh Babazadeh, Hamid Badali, Alaa Badawi, Ayele Geleto Bali, Maciej Banach, Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo, Till Winfried Bärnighausen, Lope H Barrero, Huda Basaleem, Quique Bassat, Arindam Basu, Bernhard T Baune, Habtamu Wondifraw Baynes, Ettore Beghi, Masoud Behzadifar, Meysam Behzadifar, Bayu Begashaw Bekele, Abate Bekele Belachew, Aregawi Gebreyesus Belay, Ezra Belay, Saba Abraham Belay, Yihalem Abebe Belay, Michelle L Bell, Aminu K Bello, Derrick A Bennett, Isabela M Bensenor, Gilles Bergeron, Adugnaw Berhane, Adam E Berman, Eduardo Bernabe, Robert S Bernstein, Gregory J Bertolacci, Mircea Beuran, Suraj Bhattarai, Soumyadeep Bhaumik, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Belete Biadgo, Ali Bijani, Boris Bikbov, Nigus Bililign, Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed, Sait Mentes Birlik, Charles Birungi, Tuhin Biswas, Hailemichael Bizuneh, Archie Bleyer, Berrak Bora Basara, Cristina Bosetti, Soufiane Boufous, Oliver J Brady, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Michael Brainin, Alexandra Brazinova, Nicholas J K Breitborde, Hermann Brenner, Jerry D Brewer, Paul Svitil Briant, Gabrielle Britton, Roy Burstein, Reinhard Busse, Zahid A Butt, Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado, Ismael R Campos-Nonato, Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon, Jorge Cano, Mate Car, Rosario Cárdenas, Juan J Carrero, Félix Carvalho, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Jacqueline Castillo Rivas, Franz Castro, Ferrán Catalá-López, Alanur Çavlin, Ester Cerin, Julian Chalek, Hsing-Yi Chang, Jung-Chen Chang, Aparajita Chattopadhyay, Pankaj Chaturvedi, Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang, Ken Lee Chin, Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa, Abdulaal Chitheer, Jee-Young J Choi, Rajiv Chowdhury, Devasahayam J Christopher, Flavia M Cicuttini, Liliana G Ciobanu, Massimo Cirillo, Rafael M Claro, Daniel Collado-Mateo, Haley Comfort, Maria-Magdalena Constantin, Sara Conti, Cyrus Cooper, Leslie Trumbull Cooper, Leslie Cornaby, Paolo Angelo Cortesi, Monica Cortinovis, Megan Costa, Elizabeth Cromwell, Christopher Stephen Crowe, Petra Cukelj, Matthew Cunningham, Alemneh Kabeta Daba, Berihun Assefa Dachew, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Paul I Dargan, Ahmad Daryani, Rajat Das Gupta, José Das Neves, Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa, Aditya Prasad Dash, Nicole Davis Weaver, Dragos Virgil Davitoiu, Kairat Davletov, Diego De Leo, Jan-Walter De Neve, Meaza Girma Degefa, Louisa Degenhardt, Tizta Tilahun Degfie, Selina Deiparine, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Balem Demtsu, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Kebede Deribe, Nikolaos Dervenis, Don C Des Jarlais, Getenet Ayalew Dessie, Samath D Dharmaratne, Meghnath Dhimal, Daniel Dicker, Eric L Ding, Girmaye Deye Dinsa, Shirin Djalalinia, Huyen Phuc Do, Klara Dokova, David Teye Doku, Kate A Dolan, Kerrie E Doyle, Tim R Driscoll, Manisha Dubey, Eleonora Dubljanin, Eyasu Ejeta Duken, Andre R Duraes, Soheil Ebrahimpour, David Edvardsson, Charbel El Bcheraoui, Ziad El-Khatib, Iqbal Rf Elyazar, Ahmadali Enayati, Aman Yesuf Endries, Sergey Petrovich Ermakov, Babak Eshrati, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Reza Esmaeili, Alireza Esteghamati, Sadaf Esteghamati, Kara Estep, Hamed Fakhim, Tamer Farag, Mahbobeh Faramarzi, Mohammad Fareed, Carla Sofia E Sá Farinha, Andre Faro, Maryam S Farvid, Farshad Farzadfar, Mohammad Hosein Farzaei, Kairsten A Fay, Mir Sohail Fazeli, Valery L Feigin, Andrea B Feigl, Fariba Feizy, Ama P Fenny, Netsanet Fentahun, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Eduarda Fernandes, Garumma Tolu Feyissa, Irina Filip, Samuel Finegold, Florian Fischer, Luisa Sorio Flor, Nataliya A Foigt, Kyle J Foreman, Carla Fornari, Thomas Fürst, Takeshi Fukumoto, John E Fuller, Nancy Fullman, Emmanuela Gakidou, Silvano Gallus, Amiran Gamkrelidze, Morsaleh Ganji, Fortune Gbetoho Gankpe, Gregory M Garcia, Miguel Á Garcia-Gordillo, Abadi Kahsu Gebre, Teshome Gebre, Gebremedhin Berhe Gebregergs, Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot, Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin, Tilayie Feto Gelano, Yalemzewod Assefa Gelaw, Johanna M Geleijnse, Ricard Genova-Maleras, Peter Gething, Kebede Embaye Gezae, Mohammad Rasoul Ghadami, Reza Ghadimi, Keyghobad Ghadiri, Khalil Ghasemi Falavarjani, Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman, Hesam Ghiasvand, Mamata Ghimire, Aloke Gopal Ghoshal, Paramjit Singh Gill, Tiffany K Gill, Giorgia Giussani, Elena V Gnedovskaya, Srinivas Goli, Ricardo Santiago Gomez, Hector Gómez-Dantés, Philimon N Gona, Amador Goodridge, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Alessandra C Goulart, Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart, Ayman Grada, Giuseppe Grosso, Harish Chander C Gugnani, Jingwen Guo, Yuming Guo, Prakash C Gupta, Rahul Gupta, Rajeev Gupta, Tanush Gupta, Juanita A Haagsma, Vladimir Hachinski, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Tekleberhan B Hagos, Tewodros Tesfa Hailegiyorgis, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Arya Haj-Mirzaian, Randah R Hamadeh, Samer Hamidi, Alexis J Handal, Graeme J Hankey, Yuantao Hao, Hilda L Harb, Hamidreza Haririan, Josep Maria Haro, Mehedi Hasan, Hadi Hassankhani, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Rasmus Havmoeller, Simon I Hay, Yihua He, Akbar Hedayatizadeh-Omran, Mohamed I Hegazy, Behzad Heibati, Behnam Heidari, Delia Hendrie, Andualem Henok, Nathaniel J Henry, Claudiu Herteliu, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Desalegn T Hibstu, Michael K Hole, Enayatollah Homaie Rad, Praveen Hoogar, H Dean Hosgood, Seyed Mostafa Hosseini, Meimanat M Hosseini Chavoshi, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mihaela Hostiuc, Sorin Hostiuc, Mohamed Hsairi, Thomas Hsiao, Guoqing Hu, John J Huang, Kim Moesgaard Iburg, Ehimario U Igumbor, Chad Thomas Ikeda, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Usman Iqbal, Asnake Ararsa Irenso, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Oluwaseyi Oluwakemi Isehunwa, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Leila Jahangiry, Nader Jahanmehr, Sudhir Kumar Jain, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Moti Tolera Jalu, Spencer L James, Simerjot K Jassal, Mehdi Javanbakht, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, Panniyammakal Jeemon, Ravi Prakash Jha, Vivekanand Jha, John S Ji, Jost B Jonas, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Suresh Banayya Jungari, Mikk Jürisson, Zubair Kabir, Rajendra Kadel, Amaha Kahsay, Rizwan Kalani, Umesh Kapil, Manoochehr Karami, Behzad Karami Matin, André Karch, Corine Karema, Seyed M Karimi, Amir Kasaeian, Dessalegn H Kassa, Getachew Mullu Kassa, Tesfaye Dessale Kassa, Zemenu Yohannes Kassa, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Anshul Kastor, Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi, Anil Kaul, Norito Kawakami, Ali Kazemi Karyani, Seifu Kebede, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Grant Rodgers Kemp, Andre Pascal Kengne, Andre Keren, Maia Kereselidze, Yousef Saleh Khader, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Alireza Khajavi, Nauman Khalid, Ibrahim A Khalil, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Muhammad Shahzeb Khan, Young-Ho Khang, Tripti Khanna, Mona M Khater, Alireza Khatony, Zahra Khazaeipour, Habibolah Khazaie, Abdullah T Khoja, Ardeshir Khosravi, Mohammad Hossein Khosravi, Getiye D Kibret, Zelalem Teklemariam Kidanemariam, Daniel N Kiirithio, Paul Evan Kilgore, Daniel Kim, Jun Y Kim, Young-Eun Kim, Yun Jin Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Yohannes Kinfu, Sanjay Kinra, Adnan Kisa, Mika Kivimäki, Sonali Kochhar, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Tufa Kolola, Jacek A Kopec, Margaret N Kosek, Soewarta Kosen, Parvaiz A Koul, Ai Koyanagi, Kewal Krishan, Sanjay Krishnaswami, Kristopher J Krohn, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Burcu Kucuk Bicer, G Anil Kumar, Manasi Kumar, Pushpendra Kumar, Fekede Asefa Kumsa, Michael J Kutz, Sheetal D Lad, Alessandra Lafranconi, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Ratilal Lalloo, Hilton Lam, Faris Hasan Lami, Justin J Lang, Sonia Lanksy, Van C Lansingh, Dennis Odai Laryea, Zohra S Lassi, Arman Latifi, Avula Laxmaiah, Jeffrey V Lazarus, James B Lee, Paul H Lee, James Leigh, Cheru Tesema Leshargie, Samson Leta, Miriam Levi, Shanshan Li, Xiaohong Li, Yichong Li, Juan Liang, Xiaofeng Liang, Misgan Legesse Liben, Lee-Ling Lim, Miteku Andualem Limenih, Shai Linn, Shiwei Liu, Stefan Lorkowski, Paulo A Lotufo, Rafael Lozano, Raimundas Lunevicius, Crispin Mabika Mabika, Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan, Mark T Mackay, Fabiana Madotto, Tarek Abd Elaziz Mahmood, Narayan Bahadur Mahotra, Marek Majdan, Reza Majdzadeh, Azeem Majeed, Reza Malekzadeh, Manzoor Ahmad Malik, Abdullah A Mamun, Wondimu Ayele Manamo, Ana-Laura Manda, Srikanth Mangalam, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani, Chabila Christopher Mapoma, Dadi Marami, Joemer C Maravilla, Wagner Marcenes, Shakhnazarova Marina, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Winfried März, Melvin B Marzan, Tivani Phosa Mashamba-Thompson, Felix Masiye, Amanda J Mason-Jones, Benjamin Ballard Massenburg, Manu Raj Mathur, Pallab K Maulik, Mohsen Mazidi, John J McGrath, Suresh Mehata, Sanjay Madhav Mehendale, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Ravi Mehrotra, Saeed Mehrzadi, Kala M Mehta, Varshil Mehta, Tefera C Mekonnen, Hagazi Gebre Meles, Kidanu Gebremariam Meles, Addisu Melese, Mulugeta Melku, Peter T N Memiah, Ziad A Memish, Walter Mendoza, Melkamu Merid Mengesha, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Getnet Mengistu, George A Mensah, Seid Tiku Mereta, Atte Meretoja, Tuomo J Meretoja, Tomislav Mestrovic, Haftay Berhane Mezgebe, Yode Miangotar, Bartosz Miazgowski, Tomasz Miazgowski, Ted R Miller, Molly Katherine Miller-Petrie, G K Mini, Parvaneh Mirabi, Andreea Mirica, Erkin M Mirrakhimov, Awoke Temesgen Misganaw, Babak Moazen, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Moslem Mohammadi, Noushin Mohammadifard, Maryam Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani, Mohammed A Mohammed, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H Mokdad, Glen Dl Mola, Mariam Molokhia, Lorenzo Monasta, Julio Cesar Montañez, Ghobad Moradi, Mahmoudreza Moradi, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Mehdi Moradinazar, Paula Moraga, Joana Morgado-Da-Costa, Rintaro Mori, Shane Douglas Morrison, Abbas Mosapour, Marilita M Moschos, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Achenef Asmamaw Muche, Kindie Fentahun Muchie, Ulrich Otto Mueller, Satinath Mukhopadhyay, Kate Muller, Tasha B Murphy, G V S Murthy, Jonah Musa, Kamarul Imran Musa, Ghulam Mustafa, Saravanan Muthupandian, Jean B Nachega, Gabriele Nagel, Mohsen Naghavi, Aliya Naheed, Azin Nahvijou, Gurudatta Naik, Paulami Naik, Farid Najafi, Luigi Naldi, Vinay Nangia, Jobert Richie Nansseu, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Haseeb Nawaz, Busisiwe P Ncama, Nahid Neamati, Ionut Negoi, Ruxandra Irina Negoi, Subas Neupane, Charles Richard James Newton, Frida N Ngalesoni, Josephine W Ngunjiri, Grant Nguyen, Long Hoang Nguyen, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Yirga Legesse Nirayo, Muhammad Imran Nisar, Molly R Nixon, Shuhei Nomura, Mehdi Noroozi, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Hamid Reza Nouri, Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh, Mohammad Reza Nowroozi, Alypio Nyandwi, Peter S Nyasulu, Christopher M Odell, Richard Ofori-Asenso, Okechukwu Samuel Ogah, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, In-Hwan Oh, Anselm Okoro, Olanrewaju Oladimeji, Andrew T Olagunju, Tinuke O Olagunju, Pedro R Olivares, Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Sok King Ong, Alberto Ortiz, Aaron Osgood-Zimmerman, Erika Ota, Brenda Achieng Otieno, Stanislav S Otstavnov, Mayowa Ojo Owolabi, Abayomi Samuel Oyekale, Mahesh P A, Smita Pakhale, Abhijit P Pakhare, Adrian Pana, Basant Kumar Panda, Songhomitra Panda-Jonas, Achyut Raj Pandey, Eun-Kee Park, Hadi Parsian, Shanti Patel, Snehal T Patil, Ajay Patle, George C Patton, Vishnupriya Rao Paturi, Deepak Paudel, Marcel Moraes Pedroso, Emmanuel K Peprah, David M Pereira, Norberto Perico, Konrad Pesudovs, William A Petri, Max Petzold, Maxwell Pierce, David M Pigott, Julian David Pillay, Meghdad Pirsaheb, Guilherme V Polanczyk, Maarten J Postma, Farshad Pourmalek, Akram Pourshams, Hossein Poustchi, Swayam Prakash, Narayan Prasad, Caroline A Purcell, Manorama B Purwar, Mostafa Qorbani, Reginald Quansah, Amir Radfar, Anwar Rafay, Alireza Rafiei, Fakher Rahim, Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Mahfuzar Rahman, Md Shafiur Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Sajjad Ur Rahman, Rajesh Kumar Rai, Fatemeh Rajati, Sasa Rajsic, Usha Ram, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Prabhat Ranjan, David Laith Rawaf, Salman Rawaf, Sarah E Ray, Christian Razo-García, Robert C Reiner, Cesar Reis, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Andre M N Renzaho, Serge Resnikoff, Satar Rezaei, Shahab Rezaeian, Mohammad Sadegh Rezai, Seyed Mohammad Riahi, Maria Jesus Rios-Blancas, Kedir Teji Roba, Nicholas L S Roberts, Leonardo Roever, Luca Ronfani, Gholamreza Roshandel, Ali Rostami, Enrico Rubagotti, George Mugambage Ruhago, Yogesh Damodar Sabde, Perminder S Sachdev, Basema Saddik, Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam, Hosein Safari, Yahya Safari, Roya Safari-Faramani, Mahdi Safdarian, Sare Safi, Saeid Safiri, Rajesh Sagar, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Haniye Sadat Sajadi, Mohammad Reza Salahshoor, Nasir Salam, Joseph S Salama, Payman Salamati, Raphael De Freitas Saldanha, Zikria Saleem, Yahya Salimi, Hamideh Salimzadeh, Joshua A Salomon, Sundeep Santosh Salvi, Inbal Salz, Evanson Zondani Sambala, Abdallah M Samy, Juan Sanabria, Maria Dolores Sanchez-Niño, Itamar S Santos, Milena M Santric Milicevic, Bruno Piassi Sao Jose, Mayank Sardana, Abdur Razzaque Sarker, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez, Satish Saroshe, Nizal Sarrafzadegan, Benn Sartorius, Shahabeddin Sarvi, Brijesh Sathian, Maheswar Satpathy, Arundhati R Sawant, Monika Sawhney, Sonia Saxena, Elke Schaeffner, Kathryn Schelonka, Ione J C Schneider, David C Schwebel, Falk Schwendicke, Soraya Seedat, Mario Sekerija, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Edson Serván-Mori, Hosein Shabaninejad, Katya Anne Shackelford, Azadeh Shafieesabet, Amira A Shaheen, Masood Ali Shaikh, Raad A Shakir, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Mohammadbagher Shamsi, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Heidar Sharafi, Kiomars Sharafi, Mehdi Sharif, Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini, Jayendra Sharma, Rajesh Sharma, Jun She, Aziz Sheikh, Peilin Shi, Kenji Shibuya, Mika Shigematsu, Rahman Shiri, Reza Shirkoohi, Ivy Shiue, Farhad Shokraneh, Sharvari Rahul Shukla, Si Si, Soraya Siabani, Abla Mehio Sibai, Tariq J Siddiqi, Inga Dora Sigfusdottir, Rannveig Sigurvinsdottir, Naris Silpakit, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, João Pedro Silva, Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira, Narayana Sarma Venkata Singam, Jasvinder A Singh, Narinder Pal Singh, Virendra Singh, Dhirendra Narain Sinha, Karen Sliwa, Adauto Martins Soares Filho, Badr Hasan Sobaih, Soheila Sobhani, Moslem Soofi, Joan B Soriano, Ireneous N Soyiri, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Vladimir I Starodubov, Caitlyn Steiner, Leo G Stewart, Mark A Stokes, Mark Strong, Michelle L Subart, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Gerhard Sulo, Bruno F Sunguya, Patrick John Sur, Ipsita Sutradhar, Bryan L Sykes, P N Sylaja, Dillon O Sylte, Cassandra E I Szoeke, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Karen M Tabb, Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla, Nikhil Tandon, Aberash Abay Tassew, Segen Gebremeskel Tassew, Nuno Taveira, Nega Yimer Tawye, Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi, Tigist Gashaw Tekalign, Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle, Mohamad-Hani Temsah, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, Manaye Yihune Teshale, Belay Tessema, Mebrahtu Teweldemedhin, Jarnail Singh Thakur, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Sathish Thirunavukkarasu, Nihal Thomas, Alan J Thomson, Binyam Tilahun, Quyen G To, Marcello Tonelli, Roman Topor-Madry, Anna E Torre, Miguel Tortajada-Girbés, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Hideaki Toyoshima, Bach Xuan Tran, Khanh Bao Tran, Srikanth Prasad Tripathy, Thomas Clement Truelsen, Nu Thi Truong, Afewerki Gebremeskel Tsadik, Amanuel Tsegay, Nikolaos Tsilimparis, Lorainne Tudor Car, Kingsley N Ukwaja, Irfan Ullah, Muhammad Shariq Usman, Olalekan A Uthman, Selen Begüm Uzun, Muthiah Vaduganathan, Afsane Vaezi, Gaurang Vaidya, Pascual R Valdez, Elena Varavikova, Santosh Varughese, Tommi Juhani Vasankari, Ana Maria Nogales Vasconcelos, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Santos Villafaina, Francesco S Violante, Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov, Vasily Vlassov, Stein Emil Vollset, Theo Vos, Kia Vosoughi, Isidora S Vujcic, Fasil Shiferaw Wagnew, Yasir Waheed, Judd L Walson, Yanping Wang, Yuan-Pang Wang, Elisabete Weiderpass, Robert G Weintraub, Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs, Andrea Werdecker, Ronny Westerman, Harvey Whiteford, Justyna Widecka, Katarzyna Widecka, Tissa Wijeratne, Andrea Sylvia Winkler, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Charles D A Wolfe, Shouling Wu, Grant M A Wyper, Gelin Xu, Tomohide Yamada, Yuichiro Yano, Mehdi Yaseri, Yasin Jemal Yasin, Pengpeng Ye, Gökalp Kadri Yentür, Alex Yeshaneh, Ebrahim M Yimer, Paul Yip, Engida Yisma, Naohiro Yonemoto, Seok-Jun Yoon, Marcel Yotebieng, Mustafa Z Younis, Mahmoud Yousefifard, Chuanhua Yu, Vesna Zadnik, Zoubida Zaidi, Sojib Bin Zaman, Mohammad Zamani, Zohreh Zare, Mulugeta Molla Zeleke, Zerihun Menlkalew Zenebe, Taddese Alemu Zerfu, Xueying Zhang, Xiu-Ju Zhao, Maigeng Zhou, Jun Zhu, Stephanie R M Zimsen, Sanjay Zodpey, Leo Zoeckler, Alan D Lopez, Stephen S Lim
Journal: The Lancet (2018)

BackgroundPopulation estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods.MethodsWe estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories.FindingsFrom 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger.InterpretationPopulation trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.