Africa's demographic future: why Africa should take the lead
Authors: Osman Sankoh
Journal: The Lancet Global Health (2016)

In 2010, the UN's Population Division predicted that the African continent, the population of which is now 1·2 billion, will have 3·5 billion people by the year 2100. By 2015, the projection for the year 2100 had risen to 4·4 billion.1United Nations Department of Economic and Social AffairsPopulation DivisionWorld population prospects: the 2015 revision. Key findings and advance tables. United Nations, New York2015Google Scholar In many ways this is good news for Africa—the population increase reflects impressive progress in reducing mortality, especially child mortality, and improving life expectancy. But the response to the news in developed countries has been of concern, often turning into panic. John Bongaarts,2El Nasser H World population projected to hit 11·2 billion by 2100. Al Jazeera America (New York).http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/7/29/world-population-projected-to-hit-11-billion-by-2100.htmlDate: July 29, 2015Google Scholar vice president of the Population Council, warned that “Most of these people are going to end up in slums. That's not good news.” Mertule Mariam3Mariam M The young continent. The Economist (London).http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21679781-fertility-rates-falling-more-slowly-anywhere-else-africa-faces-populationDate: Dec 12, 2015Google Scholar said: “Alarmingly, population growth in Africa is not slowing as quickly as demographers had expected…the number of Africans seeking a better life in Europe and other richer places is likely to increase several times over”. These reactions have revived discussions in developed countries on what should be done to alleviate the apparent crisis. Policy prescriptions in developed countries focus on family planning services and education of girls.4Engelman R Africa's population will soar dangerously unless women are more empowered. Scientific American (New York).http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/africa-s-population-will-soar-dangerously-unless-women-are-more-empowered/Date: Feb 1, 2016Google Scholar These recommendations might be sensible, but if Africans do not take the lead in framing the population discourse, their motivations and needs could be overlooked. New policies must consider African development. Population growth can present opportunities as well as threats. Large working-age adult populations open up the possibility of a demographic dividend, whereby the most economically productive segment of the population, less burdened than previous generations by elderly and child dependants, triggers rapid economic development. Many parts of Africa are underpopulated, and an increase in population in such areas would strengthen internal markets, promote a more efficient division of labour, and create economies of scale for infrastructure investments. Whether or not the UN projection proves exaggerated (other studies suggest that it might be5Fengler W Samir KC Will the world reach 10 billion people? Brookings Institution (New York).http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/future-development/posts/2015/09/04-global-population-growth-fenglerDate: Sept 4, 2015Google Scholar), the standard policy prescriptions in developed countries have clearly not proved universally effective. African researchers are well placed to research the drivers of fertility and to test the effectiveness of population policies on the ground. Efforts to maximise the benefits of population change and reduce negative consequences are likely to be more successful if led by Africans. An African-led response to population change might begin with efforts to establish the size of the population Africa wants, in the context of broader developmental ambitions. Rather than being dictated by fears in developed countries of mass emigration, conflict, and environmental destruction, such a strategy would be based on the needs of African people. Involvement of diverse actors in consultations over the objectives, such as political parties, civil society organisations, businesses, women, and young people, will ensure that they are responsive to cultural, economic, and political realities and receive broad societal support. As well as national objectives, a continent-wide perspective on population goals led by the African Union, might be useful. Just as many of the drivers of population change are pan-national (eg, armed conflict, environmental damage, or economic pressures), so are some of its results. Migration within Africa will continue to be a means to alleviate pressure on resources, ease conflict, and improve labour market efficiency. Africa-wide negotiations will help to design policies that mitigate the negative effects and capitalise on the positive effects of intracontinental migration. Collaboration between African Governments will allow them to urge developed countries to facilitate an African demographic dividend by reducing barriers to migration and trade, curbing climate change, and obliging companies from developed countries to provide fair compensation for African labour and commodities. Africa's slow economic development is the main reason for its continuing high fertility, rather than an absence of family planning services. If weak economic development can be addressed, family planning is likely to be led by demand, rather than something promoted by donors and governments. In consultation with their people, African Governments will no doubt propose further population policies that are closely tailored to the needs of their societies. What is important is that these objectives and policies are established by Africans. I declare no competing interests.