Climate change, poverty and war
Authors: Robin Stott
Journal: Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine (2007)

For the first time in recorded history, a single species, Homo sapiens, bears responsibility for causing significant change to the global environment. Through the burning of fossil fuels and resultant accumulation of excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, humanity is provoking accelerated global warming, which is already causing problems in the ecosystems on which our health depends (Boxes 1 and 2).1

These alterations in global ecology are aggravating the already parlous state of the world's most vulnerable populations, and if not tackled will lead to widespread social and economic devastation; the consequences of which, though caused by the rich, fall most heavily on the poor, in an all too familiar story. The impact of climate change is to widen the already substantial resource gulf between the rich and the poor. This gap is increasingly recognized as a significant cause of the increasing levels of despair and desperation among the dispossessed,2 emotions which frequently spiral into violent conflict. The widening gap is mirrored in the deteriorating health status of the poor (Box 3).

The security implications of climate change have been debated in the UN Security Council; Margaret Beckett, the UK Foreign Secretary at the time, stated that ‘An unstable climate will exacerbate some of the core drivers of conflict’.3 The US Senate is debating a Bill to have climate change recognized as a security concern,4 and in a report on US National Security, senior American military personnel described climate change as a ‘threat multiplier’ for instability.5

It is not surprising that when considering the major threats to the health of humanity, the interrelated problems of climate change and the gulf between the rich and poor are seen as triggers for war, risking the ultimate health crisis of nuclear war. Resolving these interrelated risks is therefore the key to reducing the possibilities of violent conflict and improving global public health. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the World Bank and the World Health Organization (WHO), amongst others, unequivocally state that these global problems can only be resolved through the development and implementation of a global framework.6-8 One framework which fulfils the demanding requirements of controlling atmospheric carbon dioxide levels at the same time as reducing the inequity between rich and poor is Contraction and Convergence, developed by the Global Commons Institute.9



Box 1 Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and global warming



Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have risen steeply from 280 ppm since the start of the industrial revolution and in step with increasing use of fossil fuels


Global temperature has risen in parallel with carbon dioxide, and the world is around 1°C warmer than 100 years ago


Industrialized countries bear the greatest responsibility for the present level of 380 ppm, as well as the increase of 2 ppm/year


The USA, with one twentieth of the world's population, uses 20 million of the 80 million barrels of oil consumed each day, Japan 5 million, Germany 3 million, and the UK 1.7 million.


China and India are set to greatly increase their use of fossil fuels over the next few years


The predicted temperature increase for the 21st century is 0.15-0.6°C per decade


Around 60% of the ecosystems essential to sustain life are already damaged, including many of the global carbon sinks. Destruction of these sinks not only reduce the capacity of our globe to assimilate carbon dioxide, but also releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere