Getting Schooled: School Closure, Age Distribution, and Pandemic Mitigation
Authors: David N. Fisman
Journal: Annals of Internal Medicine (2012)

Editorials7 February 2012Getting Schooled: School Closure, Age Distribution, and Pandemic MitigationDavid N. Fisman, MD, MPHDavid N. Fisman, MD, MPHFrom University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario M5T 3M7, Canada.Search for more papers by this authorAuthor, Article, and Disclosure Informationhttps://doi.org/10.7326/0003-4819-156-3-201202070-00014 SectionsAboutFull TextPDF ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsPermissions ShareFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditEmail Despite the gains in antimicrobial therapy and vaccines that have come in the past 100 years (1), epidemics and pandemics (synchronized, global epidemics) remain an important source of morbidity, mortality, and costs in high-, middle-, and low-income countries. Epidemics can be thought of as self-perpetuating, exponential growth processes; because infections are communicable, the more cases you have, the more cases you will get, as long as the population contains susceptible persons to infect.Epidemiologists refer to the key index of this type of growth as the reproductive number of an infectious disease—the number of new (incident) cases created by each ...References1. Armstrong GL, Conn LA, Pinner RW. Trends in infectious disease mortality in the United States during the 20th century. JAMA. 1999;281:61-6. [PMID: 9892452] CrossrefMedlineGoogle Scholar2. Fisman D; Pandemic Influenza Outbreak Research Modelling Team (Pan-InfORM). Modelling an influenza pandemic: a guide for the perplexed. CMAJ. 2009;181:171-3. [PMID: 19620267] CrossrefMedlineGoogle Scholar3. Hatchett RJ, Mecher CE, Lipsitch M. Public health interventions and epidemic intensity during the 1918 influenza pandemic. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2007;104:7582-7. 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Effect of influenza vaccination of children on infection rates in Hutterite communities: a randomized trial. JAMA. 2010;303:943-50. [PMID: 20215608] CrossrefMedlineGoogle Scholar13. Cauchemez S, Valleron AJ, Boëlle PY, Flahault A, Ferguson NM. Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data. Nature. 2008;452:750-4. [PMID: 18401408] CrossrefMedlineGoogle Scholar14. Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM, Wachtel C, Tegnell A, Saour G, Duncan B, et al. Closure of schools during an influenza pandemic. Lancet Infect Dis. 2009;9:473-81. [PMID: 19628172] CrossrefMedlineGoogle Scholar15. Heymann AD, Hoch I, Valinsky L, Kokia E, Steinberg DM. School closure may be effective in reducing transmission of respiratory viruses in the community. Epidemiol Infect. 2009;137:1369-76. [PMID: 19351434] CrossrefMedlineGoogle Scholar16. Keogh-Brown MR, Smith RD, Edmunds JW, Beutels P. 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PLoS Med. 2011;8:1000436. [PMID: 21629683] CrossrefMedlineGoogle Scholar21. Earn DJ, He D, Loeb MB, Fonseca K, Lee BE, Dushoff J. Effects of school closure on incidence of pandemic influenza in Alberta, Canada. Ann Intern Med. 2011;156:173-81. LinkGoogle Scholar22. Brown ST, Tai JH, Bailey RR, Cooley PC, Wheaton WD, Potter MA, et al. Would school closure for the 2009 H1N1 influenza epidemic have been worth the cost?: a computational simulation of Pennsylvania. BMC Public Health. 2011;11:353. [PMID: 21599920] CrossrefMedlineGoogle Scholar Author, Article, and Disclosure InformationAuthors: David N. Fisman, MD, MPHAffiliations: From University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario M5T 3M7, Canada.Disclosures: Disclosures can be viewed at www.acponline.org/authors/icmje/ConflictOfInterestForms.do?msNum=M11-2637.Corresponding Author: David N. Fisman, MD, MPH, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, 155 College Street, Room 678, Toronto, Ontario M5T 3M7, Canada; e-mail, david.fisman@utoronto.ca. PreviousarticleNextarticle Advertisement FiguresReferencesRelatedDetailsSee AlsoEffects of School Closure on Incidence of Pandemic Influenza in Alberta, Canada David J.D. Earn , Daihai He , Mark B. Loeb , Kevin Fonseca , Bonita E. Lee , and Jonathan Dushoff Metrics Cited bySocial connections with COVID-19–affected areas increase compliance with mobility restrictions 7 February 2012Volume 156, Issue 3Page: 238-240KeywordsAdolescentsAge groupsChildrenForecastingInfectious disease epidemiologyPrevention, policy, and public healthSchool closuresSocial distancingTemperatureVaccines ePublished: 7 February 2012 Issue Published: 7 February 2012 Copyright & PermissionsCopyright © 2012 by American College of Physicians. All Rights Reserved.PDF downloadLoading ...