Abstract P113: The Probability of Maintaining Ideal Levels of Glucose in US Populations: The Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL) and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES)
Authors: Christy L Avery, Donglin Zeng, Sujatro Chakladar, Katelyn M Holliday, Dan Yu Lin, Martha L Daviglus, Jared P Reis, Pamela J Schreiner, Christina M Shay, Fawn Yeh, Marston E Youngblood, Ying Zhang, Gerardo Heiss
Journal: Circulation (2014)

Ideal cardiovascular health is a novel concept adopted by the American Heart Association (AHA) that is operationalized through measurement and classification (ideal; intermediate; poor) of seven health metrics, including fasting glucose. Declines in the prevalence of ideal fasting glucose levels have been consistently associated with higher rates of cardiovascular disease, yet few studies have examined the ages at which such declines begin. We used cross-sectional data from NHANES (2007-2010, n=5,961) and the HCHS/SOL (n=14,357) to estimate the age-specific prevalence of ideal (&lt;100 mg/dl without medication), intermediate (100-125 mg/dl or treated to &lt;100 mg/dl) and poor (≥126 mg/dl) fasting glucose levels defined per AHA criteria among European American (EA), African American (AA), and Hispanic/Latino (H/L) participants ≥16 years of age. Race/ethnicity-stratified age-specific net probabilities of transitioning between ideal, intermediate and poor glucose levels were then calculated from cross-sectional estimates using state-of-the-art Markov models that accommodated complex sampling under the assumption that transitions remained stable across time. In all race/ethnic groups, approximately 80% of participants ≤20 years of age had ideal glucose levels. However, the estimated probability of maintaining ideal glucose levels after age 20 varied by race/ethnicity. For example, by the age of 40, the estimated probability of maintaining ideal levels of glucose over the next five years was approximately 90% for EAs and AAs and slightly higher for H/Ls (five-year probability: 92.1%, 95% CI: 91.1%, 93.1%). Among individuals with intermediate glucose levels at age 40, the estimated five-year probability of transitioning to poor levels of glucose was twice as high for AAs (five-year probability: 8.1%, 95% CI: 4.3%, 11.9%) and H/Ls (five-year probability: 9.8%, 95% CI: 8.0%, 11.6%) compared to EAs (five-year probability = 3.9%, 95% CI: 2.7%, 5.3%). Unfortunately, among participants with poor glucose levels, the estimated probability of transitioning to ideal glucose levels remained 0% for all race/ethnic groups and across all ages. Our results suggest that efforts to maintain ideal glucose levels should target young adults and extend through 40 years of age, given the sizeable prevalence of intermediate and poor levels of glucose observed by age 20, the estimated acceleration in the transition to intermediate and poor glucose levels that occurs between the second and fourth decade of life, and the negligible estimated probability of successfully re-attaining ideal glucose levels among those with intermediate or poor glucose levels. Enhanced efforts to identify and treat populations with poor glucose levels also are needed, since these populations would include persons with undiagnosed and therefore untreated type 2 diabetes.