Negative rates see Japan's regional banks move into structured finance sector

Abstract: The nation’s regional banks have long been relegated to the sidelines in one of the most lucrative corners of the lending market while regular loans got gradually less profitable. Now some are fighting back. Shizuoka Bank Ltd. has lined up a network of 40 local lenders that will invest in structured assets such as project finance and non-recourse real estate loans. The idea is that the banks get access to a steady stream of higher-yielding assets, while Shizuoka Bank can earn fees for arranging the deals, joining a market dominated by the nation’s largest banks. “We will be able to originate deals without mega-banks and foreign players taking away profits if we can create a secondary market among regional banks,” Shizuoka Bank President Hisashi Shibata said. The new initiative is a sign of the extreme pressures facing Japan’s regional lenders, who are at the mercy of a negative interest rate policy that threatens the viability of their mainstay business. “In this low interest rate environment, we can’t make money by simply offering domestic corporate loans,” Shibata said in an interview. “We have to earn money somewhere.” He said he hopes eventually to be able to arrange overseas deals as well. Shibata said he plans to add bankers to start arranging transactions and increase Shizuoka Bank’s own holdings of structured finance assets from around ¥560 billion as of March. Its current team of 23 has been focused mostly on getting new deals, “but the portfolio is expanding and we need to have people managing and monitoring it,” he said. Unlike Japan’s three so-called mega-banks, which are under strict international capital rules because of their importance to the global financial system, many regional lenders have less stringent requirements, giving them more room to have risk assets on their balance sheets. Project finance is more complex than regular corporate lending because the banks rely on cash flows from the assets they are financing — solar power plants, for example — to ensure repayment. Non-recourse real estate loans often require the creation of special purpose vehicles to hold the property assets financed by the lenders. Shizuoka Bank, Japan’s largest regional lender by market value, has seen its structured finance portfolio grow more than four times since March 2014. About 60 percent of the assets are in yen, and the rest are in dollars and other foreign currencies, according to the bank’s figures. Japanese project finance deals rose 46 percent to $7.1 billion last year, according to available data compiled by Bloomberg. The main lending units of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. and Mizuho Financial Group Inc. led most of them. To manage risks, Shizuoka Bank has been diversifying its portfolio by lending to various types of projects and assets, Shibata said. Its holdings also include ¥49.6 billion of collateralized loan obligations — pools of bundled foreign leveraged loans that have become popular among other Japanese banks. Shibata said all of its CLOs are rated triple A. The bank’s interest and fee income from structured finance was ¥17.7 billion in the year ended March, growing more than 10 times in the last five years. Overall interest income on loans was ¥106 billion and fees and commissions totaled ¥15.8 billion. Shibata said the growth of its structured finance assets has made securing dollar funding a big challenge. The lender is considering various ways to obtain dollars, such as by issuing bonds in the U.S. currency to Japanese retail investors, he said. Last year, the bank raised about $600 million by issuing convertible and straight bonds.


Taiwan's Tai Jeng-wu to remain as Sharp chairman until 2021

Abstract: OSAKA - Sharp Corp. Chairman and President Tai Jeng-wu says he will remain chairman of the Japanese electronics firm until fiscal 2021. Speaking to reporters, Tai said Monday he wants to hand over the post of president if someone suitable for the job appears. He said he will not be involved in the operations of Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. after returning to the board of the Taiwanese parent of Sharp. Sharp sees trade tensions between the United States and China affecting some 3.8 percent of its product sales, Tai said. In response, the company plans to transfer production in China to Southeast Asia, he said. Tai also said Sharp’s products are expected to gain an advantage if Huawei Technologies Co.’s share declines on smartphone and other markets due to U.S. restrictions against the Chinese telecommunications equipment maker.

taiwan
sharp
hon hai
china
huawei
u.s .
tariffs
trade war


Nissan, tied to a Renault-Fiat merger, would face a much less independent future

Abstract: Nissan Motor Co. could find itself chained to a much bigger gorilla as Renault SA and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV proceed with a plan to forge closer ties. The Japanese carmaker doesn’t like it but may not have much of a choice. Fiat Chrysler announced a merger plan Monday with Renault, Nissan’s partner of two decades, that could create the world’s third-biggest automaker. While the pair isn’t seeking a merger with Nissan for now, they plan to eventually invite Nissan and Mitsubishi Motors Corp., Renault’s existing global alliance partners, to join forces, sources said. Nissan isn’t involved in talks between the two European car companies and doesn’t view an extensive deal between them as a positive development, people with knowledge of the matter said. Nissan isn’t interested in a scenario that pursues car sales for the sake of volume, the sources said, asking not to be identified because Nissan’s stance isn’t public. “Given that Nissan has been so opposed to a merger, the question is whether forcing one will work at all,” said Koji Endo, an analyst at SBI Securities in Tokyo. “It won’t work if Nissan is forced into it.” Fiat Chrysler’s dependence on the U.S. market, where its incentives are even higher than Nissan’s, isn’t attractive either, one source said. A representative for Yokohama-based Nissan declined to comment. Nissan was left with less clout following the November arrest of Carlos Ghosn, the architect and chairman of the three-way alliance, for alleged financial crimes during his time as leader of the Japanese carmaker. The shock development, which came as a surprise to Renault, triggered a recalibration of their relationship. Coming at a time of upheaval in the global auto industry and falling profits for Nissan, the company found itself under greater pressure to merge with Renault. Although Nissan has asserted its independence in the partnership, it is struggling to keep pace with global rivals. Hurt by slumping U.S. sales, aging vehicle models and an out-of-sync product cycle, the automaker issued an outlook for weak operating profit and cut its dividend for the first time in a decade. Renault and Fiat Chrysler estimate cost savings of more than €5 billion (¥613 billion) as a result of their deal, and an additional €1 billion in savings for alliance partners Nissan and Mitsubishi Motors. Renault and Fiat Chrysler made a combined 8.7 million cars last year, which would vault the pair past South Korea’s Hyundai Motor Co. and Detroit’s General Motors Co. The world’s two biggest automakers, Volkswagen AG and Toyota Motor Corp., each topped 10 million vehicles last year. Although Renault owns a 43 percent stake in Nissan, the Japanese automaker is the bigger partner by sales and owns 15 percent of Renault, with no voting rights. Nissan sold 5.65 million cars last year, more than Renault’s 3.88 million units, but its profitability has been on the decline. Last year, Nissan’s operating profit fell below Renault’s for the first time in a decade. All of this will make it easier for Renault to push for changes. The likeliest scenario will be a loose partnership for them to compete globally, according to Arifumi Yoshida, an analyst at Citigroup Global Markets Japan Inc. “We see potential synergies between Chrysler’s strengths in large-framed vehicles and large SUVs, Fiat’s and Renault’s strengths in small cars, Nissan’s prowess in mid-sized monocoque (single-shell) vehicles, and Mitsubishi’s ASEAN market presence,” Yoshida wrote in a research note. “Nissan may welcome such an alliance, providing it is loose.” Behind the talk is intense pressure on automakers to combine efforts and investments as the industry undergoes major shifts. With sales falling in the world’s biggest car markets, manufacturers are being pushed by regulators to electrify and reduce fleet emissions. They’ve also been forced to spend heavily on self-driving technology or risk getting left behind by new, deep-pocketed competitors like Alphabet Inc.’s Waymo. “There isn’t much overlap and the key thing is finding synergies between Renault and Fiat Chrysler,” Endo said. “Even so, the merger talks will add pressure to Nissan.”


At T20 summit in Tokyo, think tanks call for restoring faith in multilateralism

Abstract: Political leaders must adhere to the principles of multilateralism despite swirls of anti-globalism and economic uncertainties, experts recommended at a forum in Tokyo ahead of next month’s Group of 20 summit in Osaka. The Think 20, or T20, held for two days through Monday, drew more than 400 think tank experts from Japan and abroad. The group meets annually and submits policy recommendations to G20 member countries in 10 subject areas, such as the environment, global governance and infrastructure investment. Reflecting recent developments in trade — most notably the clash between the United States and China as both countries ramp up tariffs on imported goods — multiple speakers touched on the topic, sharing their qualms that trade disputes will dampen global economic growth. “Although trade negotiations seem to have progressed somewhat, a number of issues need to be resolved,” said Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda, who was invited to speak Monday. “Due to the widening range of tariff increases, trade costs may rise, and corporate activity could be subdued due to reconsideration of production sites and global value chains.” Kuroda appeared to hint at the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions. U.S. President Donald Trump, who is visiting Japan as the country’s first state guest since Emperor Naruhito ascended the throne May 1, is expected to attend the G20 summit next month in Osaka, where he is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping to resolve differences. Trump’s preference for bilateral over multilateral trade negotiations has disquieted allies. Since he took office, Trump pulled the U.S. out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership framework and threatened to withdraw from the World Trade Organization. The T20 recommends putting the WTO at the center of a “rules-based trading regime,” a move intended to curb the growth of anti-globalist sentiment. Koji Tomita, a senior Foreign Ministry official who is Japan’s lead Sherpa for the G20 gathering, said regaining public confidence in multilateralism will be one of the summit’s goals. “In the light of growing downturn risks, it is obvious that the Osaka summit has to focus on this condition,” Tomita said. “But the challenge is that we have to do so against the (backdrop) of declining public confidence in multilateralism.” Kenichiro Sasae, president of the Japan Institute of International Affairs and a former Japanese ambassador to the U.S., warned of the unraveling of international cooperation prompted by a rise of populism. Countries are increasingly pursuing their self-interests, and divisiveness has become more visible in politics and society, Sasae said. “In spite of an unprecedented challenge against multilateralism, multilateral approaches need to be the basis and starting point (to) tackle common global challenges such as climate change, health and trade,” he said.

t20
g20
trade
china
haruhiko kuroda
donald trump
u.s .
trade war


Haitians march against rape after students are sexually assaulted

Abstract: PORT-AU-PRINCE - More than 1,000 Haitians took to the streets of the capital Port-au-Prince on Sunday to denounce sexual violence in the country after two students were gang-raped last week. Marchers dressed in white walked to the city center from the university where one of the recent victims studied, passing the scene of the attack while screaming loudly to imitate the cries of rape victims. “Rape is becoming a form of repression against women in working-class neighborhoods and in universities across the country,” said feminist activist Pascale Solages. Explaining the march’s slogan #PaFeSilans, or “do not be silent” in Creole, Solages said: “Victims keep silent because they feel shame and fear. But everyone must end this silence: witnesses in the communities, families, no matter where the rape is committed, silence must not be kept.” There has been little study of sexual assault in Haiti, but in 2017, the Ministry of Health released a survey saying 1 in 8 women report experiencing sexual violence at some point in their lives. Haiti is dominated by a patriarchal culture and following last week’s attacks, several commentators publicly questioned whether the women were responsible for their rapes because of what they were wearing. “Absolutely nothing can justify rape. Girls are free to walk outside at any time they want, and they can dress as they want,” said Wilkenson Saint-Fleur, a student who joined the march. “We’re not living in a jungle. The authorities must now uphold their responsibilities to the public they’ve sworn to protect, otherwise people will take justice into their own hands, and we’ll fall into chaos,” he said. The rector of Quisqueya University, where one of the victims studied, walked alongside his students and encouraged them to demand justice. “Violence is becoming a cultural phenomenon and society is beginning to tolerate violence against women,” said Jacky Lumarque.”We must say no.”


Rift opening after Sudan's main opposition group rejects call for two-day strike

Abstract: KHARTOUM - Sudan’s main opposition group and supporter of the protest movement Sunday rejected its call to stage a two-day general strike, in the first sign of a rift within the movement negotiating the launch of civilian rule. Talks between leaders of the umbrella protest movement, the Alliance for Freedom and Change, and army generals who seized power after ousting autocrat Omar al-Bashir last month are deadlocked over who should lead a new governing body — a civilian or soldier. In a bid to step up pressure on the generals, the protest movement has called for a general strike starting Tuesday, but the National Umma Party, a key backer of the movement, rejected the measure. “We reject the general strike announced by some opposition groups” in the Alliance for Freedom and Change, Umma said in a statement. “A general strike is a weapon that should be used after it is agreed upon by everybody,” the party said. “We have to avoid such escalated measures that are not fully agreed.” The National Umma Party, led by former Prime Minister Sadiq al-Mahdi, said any such decision should be taken by a council of leaders of the protest movement. Such a council is still not in place and “will be composed in a meeting on Monday,” it said. It was al-Mahdi’s elected government that al-Bashir, who himself was deposed on April 11, toppled in an Islamist-backed coup in 1989. In a recent interview, al-Mahdi warned protesters not to “provoke” the army’s rulers as they were instrumental in ousting al-Bashir. Sudanese political analyst Faisal Mohamed Saleh said the Umma party’s stand is a “negative development.” “It will not only threaten relations between Umma party and the Freedom and Change alliance, but it will also threaten unity inside the Umma party itself,” Saleh said. “I believe this is not the party position, it is al-Mahdi’s position because there were representatives of the party in meetings that decided on the strike call.” Saleh said a “harsh reaction” could not be ruled out from alliance supporters at the sit-in outside the army complex. Minutes after Umma’s statement, another key member of the protest movement, the Sudanese Congress Party, said the strike would go ahead as planned. The strike was a new measure “to complete the mission of the revolution, which definitely will achieve its victory,” it said. The military toppled al-Bashir after months-long protests across Sudan led by the Alliance for Freedom and Change against his iron-fisted rule of three decades. But the generals who seized power have resisted calls from protesters and the international community for civilian rule. Talks between the generals and protest leaders remain deadlocked over who should lead a new governing body to oversee the formation of a civilian administration. On Sunday, the military council said the talks were “proceeding at a weak pace.” “If the situation continues like this, it might lead to many options for safeguarding the interests of Sudanese citizens and for the country’s protection,” spokesman of the army council, Lt. Gen. Shamseddine Kabbashi told soldiers in Omdurman, the twin city of Khartoum. Protest leaders insist a civilian must head a new sovereign council and that civilians should make up the majority of its members, proposals rejected by the ruling generals. The new ruling body, when finalized, is expected to install a transitional civilian government for three years after which the first post-al-Bashir election will be held. Before suspending talks last Monday, the two sides had agreed on several key issues, including the three-year transition period and the creation of a 300-member parliament, with two-thirds of lawmakers coming from the protesters’ umbrella group. On Sunday, the chief of the ruling military council, Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, traveled to the United Arab Emirates after a visit to Cairo. The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt are seen as backing the generals, while Western powers led by Washington have called for a swift transition to civilian rule.


Missing over two weeks, Hawaii woman rescued from forest told herself not to give up

Abstract: WAILUKU, HAWAII - A Hawaii woman who was found alive in a forest on Maui island after going missing more than two weeks ago said she at times struggled not to give up. Amanda Eller told the New York Times that despite these moments, she told herself “the only option I had was life or death.” “I heard this voice that said, ‘If you want to live, keep going.’ And as soon as I would doubt my intuition and try to go another way than where it was telling me, something would stop me, a branch would fall on me, I’d stub my toe, or I’d trip,” said Eller, 35, a physical therapist and yoga instructor. “So I was like, ‘OK, there is only one way to go.’ ” Eller was found injured Friday in the Makawao Forest Reserve. Eller, who is from the Maui town of Haiku, went missing on May 8. Her white Toyota RAV4 was found in the forest parking lot with her phone and wallet inside. Hundreds of volunteers searched for her. Eller’s parents offered a $10,000 reward to encourage people to find her. Eller told the Times that she had intended to go on a short trail walk. She went off the path at one point to rest, and when she resumed hiking, she got turned around. “I wanted to go back the way I’d come, but my gut was leading me another way — and I have a very strong gut instinct,” Eller said. “So, I said, my car is this way and I’m just going to keep going until I reach it.” She said she kept trying to get back to her car but wound up going deeper into the jungle. During her ordeal, she fell off a cliff, which led her to fracture her leg and tear the meniscus in her knee, a friend, Katie York, told the Times. After the fall, she struggled to walk, Eller said. She also had trouble finding food. “I was getting so skinny that I was really starting to doubt if I could survive,” Eller said. Finally, after 17 days of wandering, she saw a helicopter that had been sent to find her. “I looked up and they were right on top of me,” Eller told the Times. “I was like, ‘Oh my God,’ and I just broke down and started bawling.” Javier Cantellops said he was searching for Eller from a helicopter along with Chris Berquist and Troy Helmers when they spotted her about 3:45 p.m. Friday near the Kailua reservoir, according to Maui Police Department spokesman Lt. Gregg Okamoto and the Honolulu Star-Advertiser. Cantellops told the newspaper that she was in the bed of a creek with waterfalls on either side. He told CNN he saw Eller waving her hands at the helicopter. “It was unbelievable, dude,” Cantellops said. “Seeing her for the first time in a long time was just unbelievable. It was nothing short of elation.” Eller was in an area with thick vegetation, he said. “That vegetation is so thick, it’s a miracle that we saw her,” Cantellops told CNN. The Maui Fire Department brought Eller to a hospital for evaluation, Okamoto said in a statement. Her mother, Julia, told the Maui News that Amanda Eller survived by staying near a water source and eating wild raspberries and strawberry guavas. She even ate a couple of moths, Julia Eller said. Her daughter tried to catch some crawfish, but she was “not very successful,” Julia Eller said. “She lost quite a bit of weight, as you can imagine, being lost for that amount of time,” Julia Eller said. “But she was able to survive it. She had the right skills and did the right things to buy time so that we had a chance to find her.” Amanda Eller suffered a leg fracture, abrasions on her ankles and a severe sunburn, but Julia Eller told the Maui News that her daughter’s spirits were good. “And all of those things are treatable,” Julia Eller said.


Nobel-winning physicist Murray Gell-Mann dies at 89

Abstract: SANTA FE, NEW MEXICO - Murray Gell-Mann, the Nobel Prize-winning physicist who brought order to the universe by helping discover and classify subatomic particles, has died at the age of 89. Gell-Mann died Friday at his home in Santa Fe, New Mexico. His death was confirmed by the Santa Fe Institute, where he held the title of distinguished fellow, and the California Institute of Technology, where he taught for decades. The cause of death was not disclosed. Gell-Mann transformed physics by devising a method for sorting subatomic particles into simple groups of eight — based on electric charge, spin and other characteristics. He also developed the theory of “quarks,” indivisible components of matter that make up protons, neutrons and other particles. Cal Tech professor Fiona Harrison called Gell-Mann one of the great theoretical physicists of his time.

physics
murray gell-mann
new mexico
subatomic particles
u.s .
obituary
nobel prize


Discipline or treatment? Schools rethinking vaping response

Abstract: HARTFORD, CONNECTICUT - A glimpse of student athletes in peak physical condition vaping just moments after competing in a football game led Stamford High School Principal Raymond Manka to reconsider his approach to the epidemic. His school traditionally has emphasized discipline for those caught with e-cigarettes. Punishments become increasingly severe with each offense, from in-school suspensions to out-of-school suspensions and, eventually, notification of law enforcement. But Manka began thinking about it more as an addiction problem, and less of a behavior issue, after seeing the two players from another school vaping near their bus. “It broke my heart,” said Manka, whose school is now exploring how to offer cessation programs for students caught vaping or with vaping paraphernalia. “We’ve got to figure out how we can help these kids wean away from bad habits that might hurt their body or their mind or otherwise create behaviors that can create habits that will be harmful for the remainder of their lives,” he said. Schools elsewhere have been wrestling with how to balance discipline with prevention and treatment in their response to the soaring numbers of vaping students. Using e-cigarettes, often called vaping, has now overtaken smoking traditional cigarettes in popularity among students, says the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Last year, one in five U.S. high school students reported vaping the previous month, according to a CDC survey . E-cigarettes produce an aerosol by heating a liquid that usually contains high levels of nicotine — the addictive drug in regular cigarettes and other tobacco products — flavorings and other chemicals. Users inhale this aerosol into their lungs; when they exhale, bystanders often breathe it in too. Compared with regular cigarettes, the research on the health effects of e-cigarettes is painfully thin. Experts say that although using e-cigarettes appears less harmful over the long run than smoking regular cigarettes, that doesn’t mean they’re safe — particularly for youth, young adults, pregnant women or adults who do not currently use tobacco products. “Studies have shown that e-cigarette use among young people is potentially associated with an increased risk of progressing on to cigarette use and to vaping cannabis, which has become increasingly common in recent years,” said Dr. Renee Goodwin, a researcher and professor of epidemiology at the City University of New York and Columbia University who studies tobacco and cannabis use. Besides nicotine, e-cigarettes can include other harmful substances, including heavy metals like lead and cancer-causing agents. The vaping liquid is often offered in a variety of flavors that appeal to youth and is packaged in a way that makes them attractive to children. And the long-term health effects, Goodwin noted, are unknown. Experts say the CDC classifies e-cigarettes as a tobacco product, and many schools lump vaping in with tobacco use in applying codes of conduct, treating offenses similarly. In Connecticut alone, administrators dealt with 2,160 incidents in which students were caught vaping or with vaping paraphernalia in violation of school policies during the 2017-18 school year, up from 349 two years earlier. The schools issued 1,465 in-school suspensions and 334 out-of-school suspensions, according to the state Education Department. Nationwide, some schools have removed bathroom stall doors or placed monitors outside of restrooms to check students in and out. Others have installed humidity detectors that sound an alarm when vapor clouds are detected. Lawmakers are beginning to show similar concerns. Oklahoma has passed legislation to ban vaping on school property, and a dozen states have passed legislation to increase the age for smoking and vaping to 21. Nevertheless, some school districts have begun taking a more comprehensive approach by emphasizing treatment and prevention. The Conejo Valley Unified School District in Southern California recently shifted from suspending students for a first offense to sending them to a four-hour Saturday class on the marketing and health dangers of vaping. A second offense results in a one-or-two-day suspension coupled with several weeks of a more intensive six-week counseling program that includes parents. “I think we are seeing quite a bit of success, basing it on the reduction this year in both the number of incidents reported on campus and the number of suspensions,” said Luis Lichtl, the district’s assistant superintendent. “The schools that seem to be most effective are those that are of course enforcing their disciplinary code — they can’t do otherwise — but are using that as the floor and not the ceiling,” said Bob Farrace, a spokesman for the National Association of Secondary School Principals. Linda Richter, an expert on vaping and adolescent substance use who works at the New York-based Center on Addiction, suggests that schools provide information about the health consequences and how companies have manipulated students to use vaping products by making it appear fun and cool. She said that two-pronged approach led to a successful decrease in the use of traditional cigarettes. “To expect a 13-, 14- or 15-year-old to break an addiction by yelling at them or suspending them, it’s just not going to happen,” she said. “They need help, treatment, counseling, support, education and understanding.” Dr. J. Craig Allen, medical director at Rushford, a mental health treatment center in Meriden, said suspending teens for vaping may be counterproductive. “If your solution is to send these kids home, what do you think they are going to be doing at home,” he said. “They are going to be taking rips off their Juul all day long to kill the time.” Thomas Aberli, the principal at Atherton High School in Louisville, Kentucky, said it began an intensive anti-vaping education program this year with the help of the American Association of Pediatrics. Teaching teens about how vaping companies have been courting them with flavored products seems to be having an effect. “You could tell how angry they were getting with this sense of manipulation,” he said. “That was really a turning point for us in knowing the best way to approach this problem.” Other schools have continued to emphasize discipline in crackdowns on teen vaping. At the Mattawan Consolidated School District just outside of Kalamazoo, Michigan, Principal Tim Eastman recently wrote to parents that students found congregating in bathrooms or parking lots will be taken to the office and searched. “Anyone found with vaping equipment will face suspensions,” Eastman wrote. “Although this may seem extreme, the health and safety of our students is too important to ignore.” Eastman said the school is not currently providing those caught vaping with any additional education or medical intervention, but is considering it.

vaping
addiction
cdc
drugs
tobacco
u.s .
marijuana
cancer


137-year-old Winchester rifle found in Nevada park has new home

Abstract: BAKER, NEVADA - A 137-year-old rifle found five years ago leaning against a juniper tree in Great Basin National Park in Nevada is now part of an exhibit dedicated to the “Forgotten Winchester” at the park visitor center near the Utah border. The weathered Winchester Model 1873 is in a case designed to capture the way it looked when park archaeologist Eva Jensen stumbled across it on a rocky outcrop above Strawberry Creek during an archaeological survey. Based on its condition, experts believe the weapon might have been abandoned in the forest more than a century ago. But nearly five years after its discovery, park officials still don’t know who it belonged to or why it was left against the tree. No sales or ownership records have been found The serial number was visible, allowing experts at the Buffalo Bill Center of the West in Cody, Wyoming, to determine it was made in 1882. The exhibit also highlights the role the Model 1873 — one of the most popular guns on the Western frontier — played in the history of the West. “The exhibit is a showcase for visitors to discover the rifle’s mysterious story and become inspired to imagine, investigate and care about a piece of their American history,” said Nichole Andler, the park’s chief of interpretation. Herbert Houze, former curator of a firearms museum at the Buffalo Bill center, has said Model 1873 rifles were so valuable that whoever owned the one on display might have rested it against the tree and been unable to find it later. “You just don’t leave a gun like that there,” he said. The rifles sold for $35 to $50 in the 1880s and can now fetch up to $15,000 depending on their condition. The rifle on display has been exhibited at gun shows and at the Buffalo Bill center for a summer. There, officials did an X-ray, found a bullet in the stock and removed it. The bullet is included in the new exhibit case. “It has been a fun and inspiring project to work on with our park staff and our partners to complete this exhibit and give the Forgotten Winchester a permanent home,” Andler said. The exhibit was designed and funded by the National Park Service, Great Basin National Park Foundation and Fund for People in Parks, a San Francisco Bay Area-based nonprofit that sponsors improvements at some of the West’s smaller, less famous parks.


Impeach Trump? Most 2020 Democrats tiptoe past the question

Abstract: WASHINGTON - Democratic leaders in Congress have argued that impeaching President Donald Trump is a political mistake as the 2020 election nears. Most of the candidates running to succeed him seem to agree, for now. Fewer than one-third of the 23 Democrats vying for the nomination are issuing calls to start the impeachment process, citing evidence in special counsel Robert Mueller’s report they believe shows Trump obstructed justice. Most others, including leading contenders Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, have found a way to hedge or search for middle ground, supporting investigations that could lead to impeachment or saying Trump’s conduct warrants impeachment but stopping short of any call for such a proceeding. The candidates’ reluctance, even as more congressional Democrats start pushing their leaders in the direction, underscores the risky politics of investigating the president for “high crimes and misdemeanors.” Impeachment matters deeply to the party’s base but remains unpopular with most Americans. White House hopefuls may win praise from liberal activists by pressing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., for an impeachment inquiry, but those who fall short of insisting are unlikely to take heat from early-state primary voters more focused on other issues. “People talk about it and people have opinions about it, but health care is much more salient to them,” Sue Dvorsky, a former head of the Iowa Democratic Party, said in an interview. “I just don’t see Democratic activists here all worked up about impeachment. They trust Pelosi.” The 2020 candidates are facing pressure from the left to take a harder line on impeachment as the Trump administration’s stiff-arming of subpoenas leaves House Democrats fuming and a growing number of lawmakers urge Pelosi to initiate an inquiry constitutionally required to remove Trump from office. Leah Greenberg, co-founder of the progressive group Indivisible, described the absence of louder calls for impeachment from the candidates as “a real gap in leadership.” “What we’re seeing is, some Democrats would prefer to keep the topic focused on places where they’re most comfortable and some Democrats would prefer to play pundits on this,” Greenberg said in an interview. Tom Steyer, a California billionaire, has run television ads and held town halls across the country as part of a campaign calling for Trump’s impeachment. He suggested that candidates who haven’t yet endorsed impeachment “have a political problem telling the truth about this.” Steyer said that if the public saw televised, unfiltered hearings that showed “exactly how bad this president is and exactly who he’s surrounded himself with and how corrupt he really is,” Democrats and Republicans alike would “reject that kind of behavior.” Steyer declined to enter the 2020 presidential race himself. The administration’s blockade of congressional investigations and Mueller’s report detailing possible obstruction action have yet to push any new Democratic candidates off the fence. Former Vice President Joe Biden, the current front-runner, said last month there is “no alternative” but impeachment if the administration keeps stonewalling congressional investigations. But Biden has notably stopped short of urging Pelosi to move forward. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who’s running second in most polls, told CNN this past week “it may be time to at least begin the process” that could result in impeachment. But he warned in the same interview that Trump could try to exact political gains from any impeachment effort. Pete Buttigieg said last week that Trump “deserves impeachment,” but the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, stressed that he would defer to Pelosi on the timing for taking any formal steps. New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker told The Associated Press on Friday that Trump’s refusal to cooperate with Congress amounts to “undermining the Article I branch of the government’s ability to conduct its constitutional mandates.” But he gave Pelosi wide leeway. He acknowledged that “she’s feeling the frustration from Democrats in the House” and said that “should getting cooperation from the administration not work, I know she’ll increasingly be considering her options.” Even California Sen. Kamala Harris, who said after the release of Mueller’s report last month that “Congress should take the steps towards impeachment,” is emphasizing her pessimism that Senate Republicans would act on impeachment if the matter came before them. The most vocal pro-impeachment candidates are Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke and former Obama housing chief Julian Castro. Two others, Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton and California Rep. Eric Swalwell, also have supported the start of the impeachment process. Moulton and Swalwell are among four candidates could vote on impeachment, as current House members. Pelosi and other House leaders have signaled clearly that they want to pursue investigations into Trump, including two lawsuits where they scored victories this past week, rather than start a consuming and politically uncertain impeachment process. If the House did vote to impeach Trump, the Constitution requires a two-thirds majority of the Senate to support conviction in order to remove the president from office. Given the slim likelihood of that, it’s no surprise to Democrats outside the nation’s capital that impeachment isn’t gaining steam among the candidates. “The people I talk seem to be more interested in what the next president is going to do to make their lives better rather than what they think about impeachment,” New Hampshire state Rep. David Morrill said in an interview.

impeachment
democrats
donald trump
joe biden
bernie sanders
nancy pelosi
u.s .
2020 u.s. presidential election


U.S. state prosecutors struggle with human trafficking cases despite laws on the books

Abstract: BOSTON - Laws cracking down on human trafficking are on the books in all 50 states, but convictions are notoriously elusive, and state prosecutors haven’t come close to matching the success their federal counterparts have had in winning cases. States need to add resources into support trafficking victims, educate the public and train law enforcement if the numbers of prosecutions and convictions are to improve, officials and experts say. In at least a dozen states, attorneys general are not even authorized to pursue human trafficking charges. Records requested from all 50 states by The Associated Press indicate a low conviction rate since Washington became the first state to enact a human trafficking law in 2003. A previous study suggested a 45 percent conviction rate through roughly the first decade of the laws. In contrast, the conviction rate for prosecutions under the federal Trafficking Victims Protection Act, enacted in 2000, is about 80 percent, according to Justice Department data. “We’re not fully where we need to be, but it’s encouraging to see states pursue these cases,” said Bradley Myles, executive director of the Polaris Project, which lobbied for passage of the state laws. “Prosecutors are still learning how to prosecute these cases successfully. We’re in the process of seeing the field mature more. It’s going to take time.” Underscoring the difficulties is the misdemeanor case against New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft, whose attorneys May 13 succeeded in getting video evidence suppressed. The decision, if upheld, could force prosecutors to drop charges against Kraft and potentially others among the 300 men facing solicitation charges as part of a sweeping investigation of massage parlor prostitution and possible human trafficking in Florida. Some spa owners and operators also face felony prostitution charges, but none of the defendants has been charged under the state’s human trafficking law. Some local officials point out that prosecutors do often win convictions on other, oftentimes lower charges that can still take suspected human traffickers off the street for a time, not unlike how murder charges are sometimes downgraded to manslaughter. The study that found a 45 percent conviction rate also found that 72 percent of human trafficking cases that were examined did lead to some sort of conviction. In the Florida prostitution case, many of the spa operators are being prosecuted under the state’s Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, which calls for the same maximum penalty, 30 years in prison, as for human trafficking. That means prosecutors won’t have to rely on the testimony of trafficking victims, which is frequently difficult to procure, in order to build their cases while still being able to pursue long sentences, said Jeffrey Hendriks, a prosecutor in Fort Pierce handling six of the felony cases. “From a legal analysis, what’s the loss? We want to try to put these people away for up to 30 years. Why rest your whole case on the victims?” Hendriks said. “I don’t want to sound flip, but that’s the analysis. It’s just a better fit.” Most states aren’t required to track prosecutions and convictions for human trafficking crimes. AP asked state attorneys general or other state agencies for tallies of human trafficking prosecutions, human trafficking convictions and convictions on other charges in their states since their local law was enacted. AP also asked for how many cases resulted in no conviction or are still pending. Five states did not respond. Of those that did, many supplied figures for one or some of the categories but not others, so full tallies and direct comparisons aren’t possible. But AP’s review does suggest there have been many hundreds of prosecutions for human trafficking nationally, but relatively few convictions, let alone for human trafficking crimes. At least 2,700 defendants nationwide have been charged since Washington state enacted the first law in 2003, AP found. Only about 440 were convicted specifically of sex, labor, child or other trafficking crimes. Nearly 500 others were convicted of lesser but related crimes, such as prostitution and drug charges. Nearly 300 others resulted in no conviction, either because of a not guilty verdict or because charges were dropped or dismissed, and more than 200 cases are pending. Some states should consider giving their attorneys general authority to prosecute human trafficking cases, suggested Julie Dahlstrom, a law professor who heads Boston University’s Immigrants’ Rights & Human Trafficking Program. State attorneys general in Connecticut, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Minnesota, North Dakota, Tennessee, Washington and West Virginia told AP they lack the authority to prosecute human trafficking cases, either because primary criminal prosecutorial powers lie with district and county attorneys or because state law doesn’t specifically allow them to prosecute the crimes. But even in states where the attorney general has prosecutorial powers, convictions are still low, the AP review suggests. In Massachusetts, at least 216 people have been charged with human trafficking crimes under the state’s 2011 law, but just 18 have been convicted of them, the AP found. About 50 others were convicted of other crimes, 70 weren’t convicted at all, and about 80 have pending cases. That’s a conviction rate of just over 8 percent. State Sen. Mark Montigny, a Democrat from New Bedford who has proposed changes to increase the success rate, has proposed requiring the state to provide training programs for local law enforcement agencies; launch a human trafficking public awareness campaign; compile an annual report of investigations and prosecutions statewide; and designate additional public money to trafficking survivor support services. “Sadly, these numbers are not surprising,” Montigny said. “Prosecutions and convictions are unlikely to increase unless and until we enact necessary reforms.”


Sarah Sanders says William Barr will get to bottom of FBI and Justice 'corruption'

Abstract: WASHINGTON - Attorney General William Barr is likely to consult with the intelligence community on how best to handle classified material related to the Russian investigation as he seeks out “corruption at the FBI and the DOJ,” the top White House spokeswoman said. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, in defending President Donald Trump’s moves to declassify intelligence, said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” Sunday without citing evidence that people within the agencies “were specifically working trying to take down the president, trying to hurt the president.” “The president wants transparency, and he’s given the attorney general the ability to put that transparency in place, make those decisions,”‘ Sanders said. Sanders didn’t specifically respond to a question about whether Trump would accept “exoneration” of the motives behind the probe into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election, if that’s what Barr concludes. “I’m not going to get ahead of what the final conclusion is,” she said, adding, “we already know” that there was “a high level of corruption” and “wrongdoing.” The president this week gave Barr broad authority to declassify information from the CIA and more than a dozen other U.S. intelligence agencies as part of a review of their role in what became a two-year special counsel probe into the election and Trump’s campaign. Although Barr isn’t compelled to take suggestions from top U.S. intelligence officials, Sanders said there’s no reason to think he wouldn’t “do everything that is necessary to make sure we’re protecting important intelligence that is vital to our national security.” “We expect that the attorney general will consult with them on matters that he needs that guidance and advice from them,” she said. “Certainly they work in lock step on a number of things. I don’t see this to be any different.” Trump’s move has been cast by some as an attempt by the president to exact revenge on political opponents. “It looks like he’s using the attorney general to be his personal lawyer,” Rep. Eric Swalwell of California, one of about two dozen Democrats running for the 2020 presidential nomination, said on “Fox News Sunday.” The actions by Trump and Barr could put a “chilling effect” on members of the intelligence community, including FBI agents, he said. Republican lawmakers mostly got behind the administration’s approach on Sunday. “If the FBI and other federal agencies were misused, whether it was looking into campaign activities or otherwise, we do need to get to the bottom of that because we should not be using those federal agencies to go after political opponents,” Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa said on CNN’s “State of the Union.” Rep. Liz Cheney, a Republican of Wyoming, echoed Sanders in an interview on ABC’s “This Week.” “We have to have confidence in our law enforcement, and the attorney general has got to get to the bottom of what happened,” she said, asserting “complete confidence” in Barr’s handling of the process. But Republican Rep. Will Hurd of Texas, a former CIA officer, said his interpretation of Trump’s directive to Barr is that the attorney general still must abide by an executive order from former President Barack Obama that says the head of agencies need to be involved in decisions about how intelligence is used. “Making sure the intelligence community retains the ability to determine if and how intelligence is declassified is critically important,” Hurd said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” on Sunday.

sarah sanders
william barr
fbi
donald trump
barack obama
u.s .


Iraqi court sentences to death French Islamic State trio captured in Syria

Abstract: BAGHDAD - A Baghdad court on Sunday sentenced three French citizens to death for being members of the Islamic State group, an Iraqi judicial official said. They were the first French IS members to receive death sentences in Iraq, where they were transferred for trial from neighboring Syria. The verdict raised new questions about the legal treatment of thousands of foreign nationals formerly with the extremist group. Many now languish in prisons in Iraq or detention camps in northern Syria. Their home countries hesitate to take back citizens they see as having gone willingly to join the militant group. The official said the three were among 12 French citizens whom the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces handed over to Iraq in January. The Kurdish-led group spearheads the fight against IS in Syria and has handed over to Iraq hundreds of suspected IS members in recent months. The convicted French militants can appeal the sentences within a month, according to the official, who official spoke on condition of anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to speak to the media. Iraqi President Barham Saleh had said during a February visit to Paris that the 12 will be prosecuted in accordance with Iraqi laws. In March, Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi asserted Iraq’s authority to try foreign IS suspects detained in Syria because “the battlefields were one.” The trials of the French nationals in Baghdad raise the difficult question of whether foreign IS suspects should be tried and punished in the country of their alleged crimes, even when there are serious doubts about the impartiality of the courts in Iraq and Syria. Human rights groups including Human Rights Watch have criticized Iraq’s handling of IS trials, accusing authorities of relying on circumstantial evidence and often extracting confessions under torture. The thousands of men and women who came from around the world to join the self-styled Islamic caliphate have been left in limbo following the group’s territorial defeat earlier this year in Syria. The three men are the first French IS members to receive death sentences in Iraq. It wasn’t immediately clear how France, which abolished the death penalty nearly four decades ago, will react to the sentence. The trials are a test for how the international community handles the thousands of foreign nationals who stayed, or were trapped, with the Islamic State group through its dying days. Iraqi prosecutors say the 12 French nationals are accused of belonging to IS, were parties or accomplices to its crimes, and threatened the national security of Iraq. Simply belonging to the extremist group is punishable by life in prison or execution under Iraq’s counter-terrorism laws. Judge Ali Hassan Jaafar, who presided over a closed-door court hearing, on May 2, to review the evidence that will be admitted to the trials, said the evidence showed all twelve men had crossed illegally into Iraq, when IS controlled part of the border between Syria and Iraq, and all twelve had committed crimes in the country. But even if they were never present in the country, they could still be tried in Iraq under the country’s wide-reaching counter-terrorism laws, he said. In an interview with The Associated Press earlier this month, Judge Jaafar said the evidence against the 12 men included their personal testimonies, the fact that they were caught with IS in Syria, three propaganda videos or audio clippings published by the group, and IS documents recovered in Iraq by Iraq’s security forces. “The first piece of evidence against them is that they were found with IS, in Syria, in the last days of the organization’s existence,” said the judge. “What else could they have been doing there?” A French diplomatic official, speaking to the AP earlier this month on condition of anonymity to speak freely about policy, said France recognizes the right of Iraq to try people for crimes committed in Iraq. But human rights groups and advocates of the men in France say it is not certain that the men committed crimes in Iraq, or if they were even ever in the country. They also doubt the impartiality of the courts, which have handed down hundreds of death sentences to Iraqi suspects in trials that run for just a few minutes. “There’s zero presumption of innocence when they walk into the courtroom,” says Belkis Wille, the senior Iraq researcher at Human Rights Watch. Iraq has detained or imprisoned at least 19,000 people accused of connections to IS or other terror-related offenses, and sentenced more than 3,000 of them to death, according to an analysis by the AP last year.

iraq
islamic state
syria
syrian democratic forces
france
death penalty
terrorism


Suspect arrested after Lyon bomb attack that injured 13

Abstract: PARIS - French police have arrested a suspect following a blast in the city of Lyon that injued 13 people last week, Interior Minister Christophe Castaner said Monday. Castaner announced the development on Twitter. A statement later from Paris prosecutors, who handle all terrorism-related cases, said a 24-year-old was arrested in Lyon and has been placed in custody. Police had launched a large manhunt after a device exploded Friday on a busy pedestrian street in the central city. Regional authorities said the 13 wounded suffered mostly minor injuries. President Emmanuel Macron called the explosion an “attack,” but no group has claimed responsibility for the explosion yet. An investigation has been opened for “attempted murder in relation with a terrorist undertaking” and “criminal terrorist association.” Last week, France’s counterterrorism prosecutor, Remy Heitz, described video surveillance that showed a suspect heading toward the center of Lyon on a bike Friday afternoon. The man was seen arriving on foot, pushing his bike along a pedestrian-only street, then leaving a paper bag on a concrete block in the middle of the street near a bakery. The suspect immediately returned to his bike and left by the same path. One minute later, the explosion shattered the glass of a refrigerator in the bakery, Heitz said. It was unclear whether the suspect arrested Monday was the same person. Investigators at the scene have found screws, ball bearings, batteries, a triggering device that can be used remotely and plastic pieces that may have come from the explosive device. France has been hit by a spate of attacks in recent years, some of them deadly, carried out by people ranging from extremist attackers to mentally unstable individuals.


Italy's ruling League tops EU vote as 5-Star loses ground, exit polls indicate

Abstract: ROME - The far-right League emerged as Italy’s largest party in Sunday’s European parliamentary election, overtaking its coalition partner, the 5-Star Movement, which lost a third of its voters in a year, exit polls said. If confirmed, such a result could alter the balance of power within the bickering government, giving greater authority to League leader Matteo Salvini, who is pushing for severe tax cuts in possible defiance of EU budget rules. Four exit polls predicted the League took anywhere between 26.0-31.0 percent of the EU vote, up from some 17 percent at the 2018 national election and 6.2 percent at the last EU ballot in 2014, boosted by its strong anti-immigrant message. However, the League had been polling as high as 37 percent earlier this year, suggesting its momentum had ground to a halt following months of surging popularity. The 5-Star, led by another deputy prime minister, Luigi Di Maio, took between 18.5-23.0 percent, according to the various polls, compared with 32 percent last year and 21.1 percent five years ago. The same polls suggested 5-Star had been overtaken on Sunday by the opposition, pro-Europe Democratic Party (PD), which was seen winning between 20.5-25.0 percent from 18.7 percent in 2018 and 40.8 percent in 2014. Relations between the League and 5-Star deteriorated during the election campaign and there has been speculation that the coalition could collapse following the vote because of big differences over issues such as taxes and regional autonomy. Salvini has said repeatedly the election would have no bearing on the make-up of the government and has denied suggestions he would demand more ministerial positions for his party in the event of victory. However, he has also said he expected 5-Star leaders to drop their resistance to projects close to his party. These include his drive to introduce a flat tax in the 2020 budget, regardless of fears this would push the deficit beyond EU limits. He also wants swift approval for more autonomy for the regions and has called on 5-Star to drop objections to major infrastructure prograes, including a trans-Alpine rail link. Traditionally 5-Star has fared better at general elections, when turnout is much higher. But a loss to the PD would nonetheless represent a blow to Di Maio and mean he could face pressure from party faithful not to make any major concessions to Salvini, which might further erode grass-root support. The exit polls forecast that former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party had won between 8-12 percent on Sunday, while the nationalist Brothers of Italy party was seen taking between 4-7 percent.

italy
league
eu
5-star
elections
matteo salvini
europe


Iraq warns of 'danger of war' as Iran's top diplomat visits

Abstract: BAGHDAD - Iraqi leaders has warned of the risks of war during a visit by Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, whose country is locked in a tense standoff with the United States. Zarif’s visit to neighboring Iraq — which is caught in the middle of its two allies, the U.S. and Iran — follows a decision by Washington to deploy 1,500 additional troops to the Middle East. “We are currently repelling all the efforts of war against Iran, whether economic or military,” Zarif said at a joint news conference with his Iraqi counterpart, Mohammed Ali al-Hakim. “We will face them with strength and we will resist,” he added. For his part, Hakim said: “We stand by our neighbor Iran, and economic sanctions are unnecessary and cause great suffering to the Iranian people.” Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi warned of the “danger of a war” during a meeting with Zarif on Saturday night, his office said. Abdel Mahdi pleaded for the “stability of the region and the upholding of the nuclear deal,” it said, referring to a 2015 agreement between Tehran and major powers. Iraqi President Barham Saleh discussed with Zarif “the need to prevent all war or escalation,” his office said. On Saturday, Zarif called the deployment of extra U.S. troops to the region “very dangerous and a threat to international peace and security.” It follows a U.S. decision in early May to send an aircraft carrier strike force and B-52 bombers in a show of force against what Washington’s leaders believed was an imminent Iranian plan to attack US assets. Washington says the latest reinforcements are in response to a “campaign” of recent attacks, including a rocket launched into the Green Zone in Baghdad, explosive devices that damaged four tankers near the entrance to the Gulf, and drone strikes by Yemeni rebels on a key Saudi oil pipeline. Iran has denied any involvement. On May 15, the United States ordered the evacuation of non-emergency staff from its Baghdad embassy and Arbil consulate, citing an “imminent” threat from Iranian-linked armed groups in Iraq, two of which rejected the claim. During the three-year battle to oust the Islamic State group from Iraqi cities, Iran-backed Shiite militias on the ground effectively fought on the same side as U.S.-led coalition warplanes in the skies. But since Iraq declared victory over the jihadis in December 2017, relations between Washington and Tehran have deteriorated sharply. In May last year, U.S. President Donald Trump pulled out of the landmark nuclear deal with Iran and later re-instated tough sanctions. Zarif was due to meet representatives of Iraq’s different political forces as well as religious dignitaries in the Shiite holy cities of Karbala and Najaf in southern Iraq during his visit through Monday. On Friday night, thousands of Iraqis staged anti-war demonstrations in Baghdad and the southern oil city of Basra, waving flags and carrying placards calling for a U.S.-Iranian confrontation to be averted. Iraq is trying to act as a mediator in the deeply fractured Middle East, particularly because it borders Iran and regional arch-rival Saudi Arabia, which is also at the center of a dispute with Qatar. Also on Sunday, Iran’s deputy foreign minister Abbas Araghchi began a tour of Oman, Kuwait and Qatar, his ministry said, while its spokesman “categorically denied” reports of talks between Americans and Iranians.

iraq
iran
javad zarif
adel abdel mahdi
donald trump
conflict
u.s .


Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu struggles to form government amid rumors of new election

Abstract: JERUSALEM - Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday embarked on what he termed a “final effort” to break a deadlock on forming a governing coalition ahead of a Wednesday deadline for a deal. In power for the past decade, Netanyahu has unexpectedly struggled to seal an agreement with a clutch of right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties that would align with his Likud party and ensure him a fifth term following Israel’s April 9 election. Divisions between former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman’s ultranationalist Yisrael Beitenu party and United Torah Judaism over a military conscription bill governing exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jewish seminary students have plunged the coalition talks into stalemate. Lieberman has long said ultra-Orthodox men must share other Israeli Jews’ burden of mandatory service. Ultra-Orthodox parties say seminary students should be largely exempt from conscription as they have been since Israel was founded in 1948. A 42-day deadline mandated by law to announce a new government expires on Wednesday, and President Reuven Rivlin can then assign the task to another legislator after consultations with the leaders of political parties. That could open the way for former military chief Benny Gantz, leader of the centrist Blue and White party, to try. But he would need the backing of some of Likud’s allies to persuade Rivlin he can put together a ruling majority in parliament. Likud and Blue and White each won 35 of the Knesset’s 120 seats in the April ballot, but Netanyahu was seen as having clinched victory because of the right-wing majority that emerged. In a video published on Twitter on Sunday, Netanyahu said he had invited all of his negotiating partners to meet him in “a final attempt to form a right-wing government” and avoid “an unnecessary election.” A Likud source said the sessions would be held later Sunday and on Monday. Parallel to the negotiations, Likud announced preparations for a possible national ballot, with November already touted by political analysts as a likely date. Likud lawmaker Miki Zohar released a draft of a dissolution bill that he said he was submitting to parliament, but no date for a vote in the legislature was announced. Likud said its secretariat will meet Tuesday “to prepare for an election.” Some political commentators saw those moves as an attempt to pressure Likud’s negotiating partners into a deal, given the possibility of a voter backlash against another national ballot so soon after the previous one and the uncertainty of the election’s outcome in a country riven by divisions. The scheduling of an election — and Likud could face an uphill battle for the necessary 61 votes in parliament to pass a dissolution resolution — would pre-empt a coalition-building assignment from Rivlin and ensure Netanyahu remains as interim prime minister until a new government is formed. Already locked in a legal battle over his potential indictment in three corruption cases, Netanyahu has vowed to remain in office even if he is charged. He denies any wrongdoing and is scheduled to argue against indictment at a pre-trial hearing in October.


Brexit tears up British politics as Nigel Farage tops EU election poll

Abstract: LONDON - Brexit wrought more havoc on Britain’s main political parties in European Parliament elections, with both Conservatives and Labour scoring their worst results in decades as voters opted for politicians with clear pro- and anti-European Union messages. With nearly all the vote counts complete, Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, which wants the U.K. to leave the EU without a deal, was in first place, with 32 percent of the vote. In second place, with 20 percent, were the Liberal Democrats, who want to stay in the bloc. Labour, which is split about what to do, was third with 14 percent. The anti-Brexit Greens had 12 percent. In fifth place were Theresa May’s Conservatives at 9 percent, a catastrophic result for the party of government. The heavy defeat immediately sparked calls for the Tories speed up efforts to leave the bloc or risk being destroyed at the next general election. May finally gave in to pressure from her party and announced Friday that she would quit as prime minister. Tories supporting a quick, hard break with the EU are likely to use Farage’s success to bolster their case for preparing to leave without a deal. “Never before in British politics has a new party launched just six weeks ago topped the polls in a national election,” Farage said, after he was re-elected an MEP. “The reason of course is very obvious: We voted to leave in a referendum, we were supposed to do so on March 29 — and we haven’t.” The pound, which has weakened this month on growing concerns about a no-deal exit, was up 0.2 percent at $1.2738 early on Monday. Britain was due to leave the EU on March 29, but May’s failure to get the deal she negotiated with the bloc ratified in Parliament has forced the U.K. to delay exit day until Oct. 31. Euroskeptic voters have run out of patience and punished the ruling Tories for their inability to deliver on the 2016 referendum decision to leave the EU. Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt — one of those running to replace May — said on Twitter that the result was predictable but “painful” for the Conservatives. He warned of an “existential risk to our party unless we now come together and get Brexit done.” Boris Johnson, the current favorite to win the leadership, agreed with Hunt’s diagnosis. “The voters are delivering a crushing rebuke to the government — in fact, to both major parties,” he wrote in his column for the Telegraph newspaper. “I cannot find it in my heart to blame them,” Johnson wrote. “They gave us one chief task: To deliver Brexit. They have so far given us almost three years to do it. We have flagrantly failed to carry out their instructions. We have missed deadline after deadline, broken promise after promise.” But there’s little sign that the elections will break the deadlock in Parliament. Conservatives who rejected May’s deal because it stayed too close to the EU — such as Johnson — will argue that support for the Brexit Party shows the public agrees with them. Other Tories will look at the loss of votes to the Liberal Democrats and come to the opposite conclusion. With the race to succeed May under way, many of the candidates are seeking to appeal to Conservative activists, who are largely pro-Brexit, by announcing their support for a no-deal divorce. But parties backing a hard, no-deal Brexit won only 35 percent of the vote share, while the combined support for all the parties backing a second referendum was 40 percent. Two Cabinet members who aren’t running, Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond and Justice Secretary David Gauke, warned against pursuing a no-deal split. Hammond didn’t rule out voting against his own government to prevent such an outcome. “It would not just challenge me, but many of our colleagues,” Hammond told the BBC. While turnout was slightly higher in the U.K. than in 2014, the election didn’t offer a clear result as a proxy referendum on EU membership. Parties backing leaving the EU claimed 44 percent of the vote. Parties opposing Brexit had 40 percent. Between the two was Labour, which officially supports leaving but staying close to the EU, even as many of its supporters and leading figures are calling for a second referendum. Labour’s splits were exposed as the results came in. Members of Parliament who represent pro-EU seats, such as foreign affairs spokeswoman Emily Thornberry, argued that the party needs to move to supporting a second Brexit referendum. Her colleague Caroline Flint, who represents a pro-leave seat, said the opposite. Even if leader Jeremy Corbyn were to conclude he had to help the government get Brexit delivered, he would struggle to get enough of his MPs to support it. Corbyn issued a statement repeating his calls either for an election — his preference — or a referendum. In the past, his office has been clear that he only wants a referendum if the Brexit deal is one that he doesn’t support. Liberal Democrat leader Vince Cable said his party’s result had shown the advantages of a picking a side. “There is a clear lesson for Labour in tonight’s results: Get off the fence,” he said in an emailed statement. “In trying to please everybody they have pleased nobody.” Farage demanded a place for his Brexit Party in the U.K.’s negotiating team with the EU. “If we don’t leave on Oct. 31 what you will see is the Brexit Party stunning everybody at the next general election,” Farage told the BBC. Whoever May’s successor is, they’re unlikely to find either working with Farage or a general election a tempting offer.


EU center-right claims European Commission presidency

Abstract: BRUSSELS - The main center-right group in the EU parliament will insist its lead candidate be appointed president of the European Commission, the leader of the European People’s Party (EPP) declared Sunday. “We won the election and the EPP ‘spitzenkandidat’ Manfred Weber will be president of the European Commission,” Joseph Daul told reporters, after a vote projection gave the group the most seats. Under the “spitzenkandidat” process, European parliamentarians are supposed to vote to endorse the lead candidate of the biggest political group to emerge from the election to lead the Commission, the EU executive arm. But under the European Treaty, the job of nominating an official to Brussels’ top job falls to the European Council — the leaders of the 28 member states, many of whom oppose the parliamentary system. Germany’s powerful leader Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose CDU party is affiliated with the EPP, has said she will back fellow German conservative Weber’s claim, but French President Emmanuel Macron will not. The leaders will meet on Tuesday evening to launch the selection process for the top jobs, but beforehand Weber will try to rally fellow MEPs and group leaders to get behind the spitzenkandidat process. “Without the EPP there is no majority among democratic parties. we are therefore ready to negotiate, and of course we will defend the most important job at the spitzenkandidat level,” Daul said. In the outgoing parliament, the EPP held a majority in coalition with the centre-left S&D, but both groups seem to have lost seats in this week’s elections and they will need support from liberals to rebuild their base.

eu
elections
spitzenkandidat
manfred weber
europe
eu commission


Far right, green parties make gains in EU elections at expense of centrists

Abstract: BRUSSELS - Europeans woke Monday to a new political reality after European Parliament elections ended the domination of the EU’s main center-right and center-left parties and revealed a changed political landscape where the far-right, pro-business groups and environmentalists will be forces to be reckoned with. Turning out in numbers not seen for 20 years, voters took their concerns about immigration and security to the ballot box, making parties led by the likes of Italy’s populist Matteo Salvini and France’s far-right leader Marine Le Pen among the biggest in the 28-nation bloc’s assembly. “The rules are changing in Europe,” Salvini, Italy’s hard-line interior minister, said at his League party headquarters in Milan early Monday. “A new Europe is born.” Voter projections showed the League won 33 percent of the vote, up from just 6 percent at the last European vote in 2014. The lion’s share of Britain’s seats went to Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, as citizens punished the governing conservatives and opposition Labour Party for their embarrassing failure to manage the divided country’s delayed departure from the EU. Riding what they called Europe’s “green wave” backed by Europe-wide rallies urging climate action, environmentalist parties made strong gains, notably in Germany, one of the continent’s main forces for EU integration. They are positioned to play a key role in the bloc’s next policy program. The Greens will be the fourth biggest group in the next EU Parliament after their share of seats rose to more than 9 percent from 7 percent, according to provisional results released Monday morning in Brussels. Big gains in Germany and France underpinned the European environmental movement’s success while the mainstream Christian Democrats and Socialists saw their combined share of seats fall below 50 percent for the first time. The greater fragmentation of the 751-seat European assembly gives smaller pro-EU groups a chance to wield more clout, especially when it comes to installing a new leadership team at the European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm. The Greens signaled they will demand a high price for joining a pro-EU majority coalition to help counter a parallel boost for euroskeptic, far-right parties such as the League. “We want to weigh in on the negotiations,” Philippe Lamberts, Belgian co-leader of the Green faction in the EU Parliament, told reporters in Brussels as the final ballot results were still being tallied. But he insisted his party wants “measurable, verifiable and tangible change” as the reward for its support. The Greens encompass two often-competing threads: grassroots action and skepticism of globalization on the one hand, and pro-EU instincts and a commitment to multilateralism on the other. This gives the Greens a foot in both broad political camps — with populists such as Salvini and Le Pen and with centrist political families like the Christian Democrats and Socialists. The free-market liberals saw their stake in the 751-seat parliament rise to 107 seats, up from 68 in 2014. The picture of a fractured assembly for the next five years was complete as many citizens turned their backs on the center-right European People’s Party — one of its key figures, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, saw her party lose ground — and the center-left Socialists. “We are facing a shrinking center of the European Union parliament,” a subdued EPP lead candidate Manfred Weber said, after just over 50 percent of the EU’s more than 400 million voters had turned out over four days in the world’s biggest transnational elections. “From now on, those who want to have a strong European Union have to join forces.” The Socialist lead candidate, Frans Timmermans, essentially conceded defeat, even though the two groups remain the assembly’s biggest by some margin. “If you lose an election, if you lose seats, you have to be modest,” the former Dutch foreign minister said. “We have lost seats and this means that we have to be humble.” Spanish caretaker Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez was a notable exception, as his victorious Socialists looked set to win 20 of the country’s 54 seats in the European Parliament. Although still trickling in, results show that the EPP is set to secure 179 seats, down from 217 five years ago. The Socialists are slated to win 150, down from 187. The two parties have dominated the parliament with a combined majority since elections were first held in 1979. Senior figures from the EPP hold the top posts in the EU’s three main institutions: Parliament president, head of the EU’s powerful executive commission and European Council president, who chairs summits of European presidents and prime ministers. While real power in Europe remains in the hands of the 28 member states, the assembly’s influence has grown. It has helped improve air flight safety in Europe, cut down on the use of plastics, end mobile telephone roaming charges inside the bloc, boost data privacy, and cut carbon dioxide emissions from cars. The parliament also has an important say in international treaties ranging from trade talks to Brexit. But now new, uncomfortable alliances must be forged. The pro-business liberals, or ALDE, backed by French President Emmanuel Macron — whose Republic on the Move party is set to win 23 seats, the same number as Le Pen’s National Rally — insist that Europe’s traditional political certainties are a thing of the past. “The monopoly of power has been broken,” said ALDE lead candidate Margrethe Vestager, currently the EU’s competition commissioner, describing Sunday’s polls as “a signal for change.” Party group leaders begin their horse-trading Monday to see what kind of stable alliance can be established and who might secure the EU’s top jobs. Their decisions will set the stage for EU leaders, who meet over dinner Tuesday to see where the political pieces lie and discuss potential candidates.

eu
elections
france
marine le pen
emmanuel macron


After Jean-Claude Juncker: Three candidates and a dark horse look to lead EU executive

Abstract: BRUSSELS - More than 200 million Europeans voted across 28 countries, and a new European Parliament is taking shape, but are we any closer to knowing who will lead the EU executive? Jean-Claude Juncker steps down as president of the European Commission this year, and EU leaders want a full new team in place by the end of this year to take charge. They will meet for dinner Tuesday to launch their summer top jobs fair, but so far there is no agreement on a name, nor on a method for finding one. Senior members of the European Parliament will try to insist someone who took part in the campaign as one of their lead candidates should get the job. But the European Council of national leaders will be loathe to cede their right, encoded in the European Treaty, to choose a nominee to be ratified by lawmakers. The right’s quiet champion? Manfred Weber thinks of himself as the favorite, and the center-right EPP parliamentary group says it is determined that he will get the nod when the leaders meet. But the 46-year-old Bavarian conservative, an engineer by training, will struggle to convince skeptics like French president Emmanuel Macron. Unlike Juncker, the former premier of Luxembourg, and other Commission presidents before him, Weber has no executive experience at national or EU level. Germany’s Angela Merkel has promised to back Weber, and EPP leader Joseph Daul insisted after the vote that the party won and that its candidate must get the job. But does he have the authority? The EPP is still the biggest group, but lost seats and Weber admitted: “I don’t feel a real powerful victory today.” The liberals’ tax lady Alone among the candidates, EU competition commissioner Margarete Vestager had star power before the race — the Danish political soap Borgen was based on her career. She has also been a star of the outgoing EU administration, a scourge of the U.S. internet giants that prompted President Donald Trump to complain about Europe’s “tax lady.” But she has the backing of the liberal bloc, which seems to have secured only around 100 seats in the new parliament, weakening any claim to an electoral mandate. Macron may end up backing her as an alternative to Weber, and EU Council president Donald Tusk has made it clear that a woman should get at least one of Europe’s top jobs. And she made it clear Sunday that she wants the job. Asked about the EPP’s stronger election score, Vestager made reference to her record of antitrust actions: “The monopoly of power is broken.” Juncker’s deputy The 58-year-old former Dutch foreign minister Frans Timmermans served as Juncker’s deputy and launched EU legal challenges against Poland and Hungary’s governments. So his executive credentials check out, even if the bearded centrist has also made some enemies on the Council, where there are only five socialist leaders to back him. Any hope he has would rely on the Greens, liberals and socialists unite behind progressive agenda, trusting Weber to fall in line rather than dealing with the far right. “I am not putting any claims at all,” he said, perhaps with false modesty after is S&D group lost seats. “I hope I can bring together a coalition with a program we need for the next five years,” he said. “On the basis of a program and a coalition than we can start playing the game of thrones, of who gets which job. but that is the right order.” The impatient understudy Former foreign minister and now EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, a suave 68-year-old Frenchman, is nobody’s top choice for the Commission — but also nobody’s last. He’s a veteran Brussels operator, a Gaullist with many close allies in the parliament, even if he did not go to the bother of joining the process to seek the top job. Like Weber and a good number of EU leaders including Merkel, he is from the center-right EPP group. And like Macron, he’s at least French, at a point when many in Paris this it’s their turn to lead the Commission or at least something big, like the European Central Bank. But MEPs seem determined to honor their process, and if Macron blocks Merkel’s man she’s unlikely to approve his.

jean-claude juncker
eu
europe
manfred weber
margarete vestager
frans timmermans
michel barnier


Europe-wide vote shatters center as far right and Greens gain

Abstract: BRUSSELS - Europe’s longtime political center appeared to shrink Sunday as exit polls and early results from the hardest-fought European Parliament elections in decades showed both the anti-immigrant far right and the pro-environment Greens gaining ground. The four days of balloting across the 28 European Union countries were seen as a test of the influence of the nationalist, populist and hard-right movements that have swept the continent in recent years and impelled Britain to quit the EU. Turnout among the 426 million eligible voters was the highest in two decades. While pro-EU parties still were expected to win about two-thirds of the 751-seat legislature that sits in Brussels and Strasbourg, other contenders appeared headed for significant gains, according to projections released by Parliament. Exit polls in France indicated that Marine Le Pen’s far-right, anti-immigrant National Rally party came out on top in an astonishing rebuke of French President Emmanuel Macron, who has made EU integration the heart of his presidency. Le Pen said the projected outcome “confirms the new nationalist-globalist division” in France and beyond. In Germany, the EU’s biggest country, exit polls indicated that the party of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and its center-left coalition partner also suffered losses, while the Greens were set for big gains and the far right was expected to pick up slightly more support. In Italy, hard-line Interior Minister Matteo Salvini’s right-wing populist League was projected to become his country’s largest party, jumping from around 6 percent of the vote during the last election five years ago to between 27 percent and 31 percent this time. Salvini’s first reaction was a tweeted photo of himself holding a handwritten message: “1st Party in Italy.” And Hungary said Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s fiercely anti-immigration Fidesz party had won 13 of the country’s 21 seats in the EU Parliament, one more than it had in 2014. Turnout across the bloc was put at a 50.5 percent, a 20-year high. Full election results were expected overnight. The continent-wide voting had major implications not just for the functioning of the bloc but also for the internal politics in many countries. The balloting, which began Thursday, pitted supporters of closer European unity against those who consider the EU a meddlesome and bureaucratic presence and want to return power to national governments and sharply restrict immigration. The results could leave Parliament’s two main parties, the European People’s Party and the Socialists & Democrats, without a majority for the first time since 1979, opening the way for complicated talks to form a working coalition. The Greens and the ALDE free-market liberals are jockeying to become decisive in the body. Esther de Lange, vice chair of the EPP, conceded that the results indicate “fragmentation and a shrinking center.” Early projections suggested the Greens would secure 71 seats, up from 52 the last time. The Greens appeared to have done well not just in Germany but in France and Ireland. “The Green wave has really spread all over Europe, and for us that is a fantastic result,” said Ska Keller, the group’s co-leader in the Parliament. The EU and its Parliament set trade policy on the continent, regulate agriculture, oversee antitrust enforcement and set monetary policy for 19 of the 28 nations sharing the euro currency. Britain voted even though it is planning to leave the EU. Its EU lawmakers will lose their jobs as soon as Brexit happens. Europe has been roiled in the past few years by immigration from the Mideast and Africa and deadly attacks by Islamic extremists. It has also seen rising tensions over economic inequality and growing hostility toward the political establishment — sentiments not unlike those that got Donald Trump elected in the U.S. Proponents of stronger EU integration, led by Macron, argue that issues like climate change and immigration are too big for any one country to tackle alone. Germany’s Manfred Weber, the candidate of the EPP, said it is “most necessary for the forces that believe in this Europe, that want to lead this Europe to a good future, that have ambitions for this Europe,” to work together. Macron, whose country has been rocked in recent months by the populist yellow vest movement, had called the elections “the most important since 1979 because the Union is facing an existential risk” from nationalists seeking to divide the bloc. With the elections over, European leaders will begin the task of selecting candidates for the top jobs in the EU’s headquarters in Brussels. The leaders meet for a summit over dinner Tuesday. Current European lawmakers’ terms end July 1, and the new parliament will be seated the following day.

europe eu greens elections france germany


Liberal and Green gains upset power balance in European Parliament

Abstract: BRUSSELS - Liberals and Greens say they have broken the two centrist blocs’ grip on power in the European Parliament based on a projected shift in the electoral fortunes of the four. Liberals and Greens are now pushing harder to snag the head of the European Commission, the 28-nation EU executive, and shape key laws, such as on climate change and taxation. The center-right EPP (European People’s Party) still has the most seats, followed by the center-left Socialists, but the pair no longer control a majority, according to partial and projected results. “The monopoly of power is broken,” said Margrethe Vestager, whose Alliance of Liberals and Democrats (ALDE) wants her to head the new commission. ALDE is projected to have around 100 seats, making it third in the assembly behind some 180 seats for the EPP and 152 for the Socialists and Democrats. But ALDE and the Greens also hope to work with the EPP and the Socialists to check big gains by euroskeptics, populist and right-wing parties who could have around 150 seats. Though power is set to be fragmented, the mainstream, pro-European Union groups still control the lion’s share of the 751-seat assembly. Vestager alluded to her own credentials for the top job on the Commission, where she served as the antitrust commissioner and gained a reputation for toughness. She said EU voters have broken the EPP and Socialist monopoly the way she stopped U.S. tech firms and other multinationals from undermining market competition. Vestager hailed signals from both the Socialists and the Greens to forge a new kind of coalition “of those who want to take actions progressively to change things.” The Danish politician said that meant a “different composition of leadership” of the main institutions, long dominated by the EPP and the Socialists. Manfred Weber, leader of the EPP in parliament, is aiming to succeed fellow group member Jean-Claude Juncker as head of the European Commission. Debate over the position begins in the next few days. The commission is powerful because it plays a key role drafting laws and rules on the economy, the environment, counterterrorism, personal data protection, and telecommunications. Other top positions to be decided following the elections are the head of the European Central Bank and the foreign policy chief. Vestager also stressed the need for gender balance in the top jobs. Weber, a German, was subdued when he spoke to journalists in the European Parliament, backed by giant screens where the results were being projected. “I don’t feel a real powerful victory today,” Weber said after the EPP saw its projected number of seats decrease by around 36 from 216 in the outgoing assembly. “We are facing a shrinking center,” he added, alluding to both his party’s results and those of the Socialists which held 185 seats in the outgoing parliament. Esther de Lange, a Dutch EPP member, said her group could still take the lead in negotiations because it remained the biggest group. But the projected results mark the end of decades of domination by two parties and could lead to more wrangling over jobs and legislation. Ska Keller, a Greens candidate for the top commission job, told journalists her party’s surge to a projected 70 seats from 51 would usher in a new dynamic. When asked whether the results could allow the Greens to play kingmaker, Keller replied it could be kingmaker or “queenmaker” given her party’s stand on gender equality. Her party said it “aimed to deliver on green action, social Europe and democracy.” ALDE leader Guy Verhofstadt proclaimed his party the real pro-European winner of the elections, with it holding the key to success for the next parliament. “That means no solid pro-European majority is possible without the participation of our new centrist group,” the former Belgian premier added. The group will be composed of ALDE, French President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance Movement and other “reform-driven, like-minded parties,” Verhofstadt said. “We will find a majority for the fight against climate change, fairer taxation, completion of the internal market and European solutions for the migration crisis,” he added.

greens
europe
eu
elections
margrethe vestager
alde


Michael Gove enters Conservative race to succeed Theresa May

Abstract: LONDON - British Environment Secretary Michael Gove on Sunday became the eighth lawmaker to enter the race to succeed Prime Minister Theresa May, as other contenders staked out uncompromising positions on Brexit. Gove said Sunday that “I can confirm that I will be putting my name forward to be prime minister of this country” when May steps down as Conservative leader on June 7. Other candidates for the top job include former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt and ex-House of Commons leader Andrea Leadsom. The current favorite is former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, whom Gove backed in the 2016 Conservative leadership contest before deciding to run for the job himself. The winner of that race was May. She announced her departure Friday, admitting defeat in her three-year quest to deliver Brexit after failing three times to get her Brexit deal though Parliament. Her successor as party leader will be selected by Conservative lawmakers and party members, and will automatically become prime minister. The leadership contest is dominated by candidates vowing to take Britain out of the European Union even if there is no divorce deal in place. On Sunday, Raab joined Johnson, Leadsom and another candidate, Esther McVey, in vowing to leave on the EU-set deadline of Oct. 31, deal or no deal. “I will not ask for an extension,” Raab said. “I would fight for a fairer deal in Brussels … and if not I would be clear that we would leave on (World Trade Organization) terms in October,” he told the BBC. Most businesses and economists think leaving the EU without agreed terms and a transition period would cause economic turmoil and plunge Britain into recession. But many Conservatives think embracing a no-deal Brexit may be the only way to win “leave”-supporting voters back from the newly-formed Brexit Party led by Nigel Farage. Any attempt to take Britain out of the EU without a deal will be fiercely resisted by Parliament, and could see pro-Europeans leave the Conservative Party. “Parliament has voted very clearly to oppose a no-deal exit,” Treasury chief Philip Hammond said Sunday. “It would be very difficult for a prime minister who adopted no deal as a policy … to retain the confidence of the House of Commons,” he told the BBC.

michael gove
conservatives
theresa may
brexit
dominic raab
jeremy hunt
andrea leadsom
boris johnson
u.k .


Pro-Bolsonaro demonstrations in Brazil show risks to government

Abstract: RIO DE JANEIRO - Not even five months into his four-year term, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is struggling so much to push forward with his agenda despite a big election victory that many of the far-right leader’s staunchest supporters felt the need to get out into the streets to give him a boost. Sunday’s demonstrations in over 100 cities sought to counter large protests on May 15 against Bolsonaro’s plan for deep cuts in spending on public education, an area he thinks is politicized and poorly run. With pressure mounting to deal with the government’s huge budget deficit and poor performance by Latin America’s biggest economy, the dueling rallies underscore Bolsonaro’s problems: sagging approval ratings, a crashing currency, infighting within his administration and sniping even from conservatives. There is no immediate threat to his hold on power, yet Brazilian politics in recent years hold warning signs for the president. Fury over the largest corruption scandal in the history of Latin America, angst about an economy that has yet to fully recover from recession and a litany of other complaints have made Brazil a hostile environment for politicians. Consider the fate of the last three presidents: In 2016, Dilma Rousseff was impeached and ousted for illegally managing the federal budget. Last year, her predecessor, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, began serving a 12-year sentence for a corruption conviction. And this year, the man succeeded by Bolsonaro, Michel Temer, has twice been arrested and is facing several graft allegations. All three situations are different, of course, and Bolsonaro is not facing corruption allegations himself, although his son, a federal senator, is. Rather, the common thread is that in today’s Brazil nobody is untouchable. That Bolsonaro’s administration is wounded is largely his own fault. He campaigned on the need to curtail the country’s overburdened pension system and to combat rising violence and crime, yet instead of building coalitions to push for major reforms, he has used much of his early political capital on cultural wars, bashing the press and expanding gun rights, the latter of which polls say is opposed by a majority of Brazilians. Instead of working with Congress in the capital of Brasilia, the former legislator has made trips to Chile, Israel and Switzerland and gone to the United States twice. Bolsonaro’s list of provocative and unnecessary moves is already long: He tweeted a video of a man peeing on the head of another to warn about debauchery during Carnival, posted fake stories about reporters, declared Brazil should not be allowed to become “a gay paradise” and frequently insulted other politicians, even supposed allies. He has also done little to stop social media attacks by his politician sons on military leaders, including Vice President Hamilton Mourao, a former general. The infighting and theatrics prompted Janaina Paschoal, a state lawmaker from Bolsonaro’s Social Liberal Party, who he considered for vice president, to openly campaign against Sunday’s rallies. “Wake up! If the streets are empty on the 26th, Bolsonaro will realize that he will have to stop causing drama and get to work,” she said on Twitter. Bolsonaro has received similar criticism from Rodrigo Maia, whose role as speaker of Congress’ lower house makes him a key player in whether the president’s agenda can move forward. In March, Maia said if Bolsonaro didn’t do the work to persuade legislators to approve a controversial pension overhaul, it wasn’t going to happen, sending shivers through the markets. In a series of extraordinary public barbs, Maia admonished Bolsonaro for spending so much time on Twitter and so little time in Congress. Bolsonaro brushed Maia off. Bolsonaro and many of his hard-core supporters argue that the administration is struggling because he refuses to engage in business as usual, such as trading government projects or positions for votes on key legislation. Sunday’s demonstrations were “a message” to “those who stay with the old ways,” Bolsonaro said after participating in a religious service in Rio de Janeiro. Still, Bolsonaro’s popularity is sagging. Several polls say his approval rating is down about 15 points since taking office, currently hovering around 34 percent. The Brazilian real has declined sharply against the U.S. dollar in recent months on worries that major economic changes are at risk, the unemployment rate has edged up to under 13 percent, and Paulo Guedes, the University of Chicago-trained finance minister who was key to Bolsonaro’s election victory, has said he won’t stick around if pension reform isn’t passed. None of that is insurmountable. The divisive impeachment process against Rousseff, followed by the scandal-prone administration of Temer, the least popular president in modern Brazilian history, and the jailing of da Silva, has all left many Brazilians tired of the fighting. Regardless of political stripes, they want the economy improve, to feel safer on the streets and to live under a functioning government. Bolsonaro will have to bring together disparate groups in one of the world’s most diverse countries, including those who are clearly out to get him. The question is whether he can do that, or will he continue to be consumed by schoolyard fights and the settling of scores.