Bonuses for Transocean Executives Criticized

Abstract: MEXICO CITY — Ken Salazar, the interior secretary, on Monday sharply criticized Transocean , a company that operated the oil rig that exploded in the Gulf of Mexico last year, for awarding executive bonuses for what it called the “best year in safety performance in our company’s history.” “In my own view, 2010 was probably the greatest year of pain in terms of oil and gas development in the deep water all across the world, especially in the Gulf of Mexico,” Mr. Salazar said. He added that Transocean was “at least at some fault” in the explosion, which killed 11 workers and led to the biggest oil spill ever in the United States. The interior secretary was visiting Mexico with officials from the presidential commission that investigated the BP oil spill to discuss regulation of offshore drilling with Mexican officials. William K. Reilly, co-chairman of commission, called Transocean’s comments “embarrassing.” “It’s been said with respect to the disaster that some companies just don’t get it — I think Transocean just doesn’t get it,” Mr. Reilly said. The spill commission concluded in a report released in January that the oil spill was an avoidable accident caused by a series of failures and errors by the companies involved in drilling the well — BP, Transocean and Halliburton — and several subcontractors as well as the government regulators assigned to oversee their work. Transocean moved on Monday to contain the damage from its description of 2010 as a good safety year, which appeared in a securities filing on Friday disclosing that its top executives received about 45 percent of their targeted performance bonuses for the year. Ihab Toma, Transocean’s executive vice president of global business, said in a statement on Monday that “some of the wording in our 2010 proxy statement may have been insensitive in light of the incident that claimed the lives of 11 exceptional men last year and we deeply regret any pain that it may have caused.”

National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling


Forty Tales Wins Derby Trial

Abstract: Forty Tales won the Derby Trial in Louisville, Ky., and has enough points to enter Saturday’s Kentucky Derby. The trainer Todd Pletcher, who said the horse was unlikely to compete, could already have a record six starters.


Studies Clash on Impact of Indian Point Shutdown

Abstract: In a case of dueling studies, research commissioned by opponents of nuclear power indicates that electricity in New York State would remain reliable and reasonably priced if the Indian Point nuclear reactors were permanently shut down. The findings directly contradict those of experts hired by the Bloomberg administration. The opponents, the Natural Resources Defense Council and Riverkeeper , released their report in advance of hearings that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission will conduct beginning next spring on whether the licenses for the two reactors, Indian Point 2 and 3, in Westchester County, should be extended for 20 more years. The groups, which favor retiring the reactors, contend that an accident there could be 10 times worse than what happened at the Fukushima reactors in Japan after an earthquake last March. But the Bloomberg administration argued that without Indian Point, air quality would suffer and so would power reliability. New York State, which used to own Indian Point 3, is trying to shutter the plants. “There is a belief out there that if Indian Point is shut down, the lights will go out,” Ashok Gupta, the New York State energy director of the Natural Resources Defense Council, said. But a study his group helped commission, performed by Synapse Energy Economics, of Cambridge, Mass., said that to maintain reliability, the state would not need new capacity until 2020. The plants’ initial 40-year licenses expire in 2013 and 2015, and a study commissioned by New York City and done by Charles River Associates of Boston, predicted that the area would face a capacity shortage that would increase the risk of blackout by 2016 if they are shut. The two studies used differing assumptions about the extent to which new generators could be built or existing ones upgraded; how much efficiency improvements could reduce power demand; and how fast renewable energy sources, and especially the power lines that would bring those resources to the New York area, could be built. The groups that oppose the plant say that if the reactors’ retirements were firmly scheduled, developers would build transmission and generating stations in time to compensate for the loss. Indian Point’s opponents are planning to take advantage of the events at Fukushima to help make their case. Because the Indian Point reactors are larger than the individual Fukushima units and because they are close to New York City, they could have an impact 10 to 100 times as large as the four meltdowns in Japan, according to the Natural Resources Defense Council. The group did not give a detailed explanation of how this would happen, but asserted that there is a strong likelihood of an earthquake stronger than what Indian Point was designed for.

New York State
Natural Resources Defense Council
Riverkeeper
Indian Point Nuclear Power Plant (NY)
Nuclear Energy
Electric Light and Power


Russia’s Version of Caucasus Deaths Disputed

Abstract: MOSCOW (Reuters) — Memorial, a Russian group that advocates for human rights, said Monday that four civilians who were killed during recent operations against Islamist militants in the North Caucasus region had not been accidentally caught in a cross-fire, as Russian authorities have contended. Memorial said in a report that the four had been abducted, tortured and killed, a conclusion that the organization said was based on interviews with witnesses. The four civilians had multiple gunshot or knife wounds, which Aleksandr Cherkasov, a director of Memorial, said had been photographed by local human rights activists. The Kremlin, which views the militant Islamist insurgency in the North Caucasus as Russia ’s biggest domestic political problem, had no immediate comment on the report. The authorities said over the weekend that the four people had accidentally come under attack in a forest during a large-scale operation by security forces that killed at least 20 militants in Ingushetia, a region bordering Chechnya. Ingushetia’s leader, Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, who narrowly survived a suicide bomb attack last year, apologized on Saturday for what he called the victims’ “unfortunate deaths” and gave their families compensation money. But Mr. Cherkasov said Monday, “They are not, as authorities claimed, the victims of cross-fire.” Violence has increased during the past year in Chechnya, the scene of two bloody separatist wars since the mid-1990s, as well as in Ingushetia and Dagestan. They are the most troubled regions of Russia’s North Caucasus, where Islamist militancy and anger at the government overlaps with the activity of criminal groups and clan and ethnic rivalries. Kremlin critics contend that heavy-handed actions by security forces have helped fuel the violence. An unofficial Islamist Web site, kavkazcenter.com , citing relatives and local witnesses, said Monday that 14 civilians had been killed during the clashes last week, most of them teenagers who were picking wild garlic in a forest. The Web site cited local witnesses and relatives of the dead in its report. Russian security forces, in particular the OMON riot police, were accused by the European Union and human rights groups of serious abuses during the two Chechen wars, accusations that the security forces disputed. The newspaper Moskovsky Komsomolets, in an uncharacteristic criticism of the government, reported on Monday: “It’s simple: Destroy militants with disregard for peaceful citizens. As it always is and always has been.” Imram Ezhiev, a Chechen human rights activist and head of the Society of Russian-Chechen Friendship, said in an interview from Grozny, the Chechen capital, “Forces kill civilians regularly, but it is rare for authorities to admit to it.”

United States Defense and Military Forces


Carmelo Anthony Leaves With Injury, but Knicks Hold Off Lakers

Abstract: Carmelo Anthony looked up at the shot clock, put his head down and drove the lane. Mike D’Antoni , his former coach, stood a few feet away as Anthony was fouled hard by Dwight Howard. Anthony’s left knee and ankle were caught under his body when he hit the court in a violent crash. Anthony screamed in pain, and Madison Square Garden went from a loud, joyful atmosphere to one that suddenly grew stonily quiet. When the video scoreboard showed the replay, there were gasps in the sellout crowd of 19,033. Anthony went to the locker room with 6 minutes 33 seconds left in the third quarter, his night over. Knicks General Manager Glen Grunwald said afterward that he did not think Anthony’s injury was serious. The Knicks (17-5) held on for a 116-107 victory as the highly motivated Anthony went on a scoring binge early in the game. He scored a team-high 30 points in 22 minutes, the most in such a short span since David Robinson scored 31 in 21 minutes in 1994 with the San Antonio Spurs. “He was incredible,” Coach Mike Woodson said. Jason Kidd agreed. “Carmelo was a video game tonight,” he said. “He’s been doing it all season. He just lets the game come to him. Nothing was forced tonight. I can’t count a bad shot for him in the last few games. That’s what the special players do.” Anthony, who was listed as day to day, did not sound worried about his injury. The team did not perform an X-ray after the game, and he was not scheduled to have a magnetic resonance imaging test. “Everything is good,” Anthony said. “I’m real sore right now — ankle, knee, hip. It was an awkward fall.” Tyson Chandler, who was on the floor when Anthony fell, was nervous. “I was more concerned when he didn’t come back,” Chandler said. “During a timeout, I looked at the bench and said, ‘Where’s Carmelo?’ After the game I came back and talked to him; his spirits seemed O.K.” The game marked D’Antoni’s return to the Garden after he resigned last season in March. When D’Antoni was introduced by the public address announcer, the crowd booed loudly. Anthony, who never fully agreed with or enjoyed playing in D’Antoni’s offense, pointed toward his former coach in a friendly gesture before the game. Afterward, he insisted that D’Antoni’s presence in the arena did not give him additional motivation. “I wanted to beat the Lakers ,” Anthony said. “It had nothing to do with Mike. I wanted to protect our home court.” From the opening tip, D’Antoni and the Lakers (9-14) did not have a strategy that could stop Anthony. He scored the game’s first points with a pull-up 3-pointer. He went on to swish three consecutive 3-pointers, including one that was well behind the arc in transition. Near the end of the quarter, Anthony grabbed a rebound and went the length of the floor with Kobe Bryant in pursuit. Anthony hesitated before driving past Bryant and Antawn Jamison for a layup that resulted in a 3-point play. Anthony’s furious first quarter, in which he scored 22 points, included a fierce two-handed dunk over Jordan Hill. “Obviously he just came out on fire,” Bryant said. “He’s just playing the way that he’s always played throughout his career. I think he’s just in an environment where they celebrate that and they encourage that from him, to be who he is. He’s just having a sensational season.” By the end of the quarter, Anthony received a standing ovation and slapped hands with Woodson as he went to the bench. D’Antoni, on the other side of the court, knew Anthony was capable of an impressive performance. “As dangerous as you can get,” D’Antoni said of Anthony before the game. “There’s no better offensive player I don’t think in the league. The floor is spread and they got three shooters around. And you got to decide, can you help or can you not help? And they got Tyson Chandler, who’s unbelievable on the boards. It’s a dream come true. That’s why they’re the best record in the East.” After 15 minutes, the Knicks had a 49-30 lead. They were shooting over 70 percent and had yet to commit a turnover. By halftime, the Knicks led, 68-49. If not for his injury, Anthony looked to have a chance to score 50 points. Even without Anthony, the Lakers could never cut the Knicks’ lead enough to put pressure on Anthony’s teammates. Raymond Felton finished with 19 points and 8 assists. Chandler and J. R. Smith had 18 points each. The Knicks were also proficient from the 3-point line, making 12 of 25 attempts. Bryant is close friends with Anthony and spent much of the summer with him on the Olympic team in London, where they talked frequently about what went wrong with the Knicks last season. “I think last year was very tough for him because he was criticized a lot for shooting and for playing the way that he likes to play,” Bryant said. “Then the whole Linsanity thing happened, and everybody said, ‘Well, they win better without Melo’ and all this nonsense. You guys are guilty of it,” Bryant said, referring to the news media and how they covered the Knicks with Jeremy Lin. “You guys really put the hammer on him. And as a result, he kind of got a little gun-shy and a little self-conscious about things.” Bryant said his advice to Anthony was simple: “ ‘You have to do what you do best.’ And I think the organization put pieces around him that allowed him to do that. And now you guys all celebrate him for doing what he’s always done. It’s funny.” REBOUNDS Mike Woodson said he did not know when Amar’e Stoudemire would be cleared to practice with the team. “He’s still working,” Woodson said. “I don’t really know where he is in terms of getting back, but he’s putting his work in. Hopefully he’ll be back soon.” Stoudemire went through another pregame workout Thursday and ended with powerful dunks, which excited the crowd. Stoudemire also married Alexis Welch on Wednesday and spent part of the day working the phones for the telethon that was part of the Hurricane Sandy relief concert. ...Woodson also discussed how he thought the Knicks were close to acquiring Steve Nash during the off-season. Nash signed with the Lakers and has played in only two games, as he is rehabilitating from a fracture in his left leg. “We talked to him,” Woodson said. “We were in the hunt. But he made the decision to go to Los Angeles, so we had to go a different route.” ... The Knicks instead landed Jason Kidd, who is shooting 50 percent from the floor and has been a large part of team’s success. Kidd finished Thursday with 5 points, a team-high 9 rebounds and 5 assists. Kidd also had a slight cut over his right eye after the game. Kidd said he bumped heads with Kobe Bryant in the final minute of the game. “Nothing happened to him,” Kidd said of Bryant. “It always happens to me.” This is the third time this season Kidd has been hit in the head by an opposing player. ... Mike D’Antoni said he was pleased to see Tyson Chandler, who he helped bring to the Knicks during his tenure, excelling in New York. Entering the game, Chandler led the league in field goal percentage (.698). “Tyson is one of my favorite people,” D’Antoni said. “He’s one of the best people in the N.B.A., without a doubt. Off the court, what he does. So he’ll always be a friend, hopefully. But then as a player, he’s special too. Probably one of the best moves we ever made in New York.”

New York Knicks
Los Angeles Lakers
D'Antoni Mike
Anthony Carmelo
Bryant Kobe
Basketball


Returning Some Powers to E.U. Members

Abstract: The European Union is facing a crisis of legitimacy. This is evidenced in a decline in support for the E.U. among citizens in pretty much every member country. The most extreme expression is in Britain, where pressure is mounting to quit the E.U. There are two main schools of thought about how to restore trust in Brussels. One is to increase the direct say citizens have over what the European Commission does — say by giving yet more power to the European Parliament or by having a directly elected European Commission president. The other is to stop Brussels from interfering in things best left to nation-states. The former school of thought is based on a misconception. The E.U. does not have a demos, or common people: few Europeans feel European rather than Italian, German, French or whatever. Witness the low turnout for European Parliament elections. Trying to construct a democracy without demos is artificial and will not solve the legitimacy problem. The better option is to decentralize decision-making to nations. That would move power closer to the people. This is the thinking behind the Dutch government’s recent call for an E.U. based on the principle of “European where necessary, national where possible.” It concluded that the time of an “ever closer union,” a key phrase in the E.U. treaty, in every possible policy area is over. The U.K. government’s review of the commission’s “competences” — a word for its powers, not for whether it is discharging them competently — is motivated by a similar desire. The question, then, is how to bring about decentralization. A popular demand by many British Conservatives is to repatriate competences from Brussels to London. Britain already has opt-outs from the single currency, banking union and home affairs matters. Some other countries also have opt-outs. The snag is that it is one thing to secure an opt-out when a new power is being transferred to Brussels; quite another to get it back. This is because a country can veto losing a power but any other country can veto its return. What is more, if countries could cherry-pick which bits of E.U. law they wanted to follow, the union could unravel. Even the Dutch are not calling for opt-outs. Some senior British Conservatives are, therefore, no longer pushing hard for unilateral repatriation of competences. William Hague, the foreign minister, said last week that Britain should try to reform the Union for the benefit of all, not just for Britain. How, though, to achieve this? Part of the answer is to realize that decisions can be decentralized even without shifting competences away from Brussels. The E.U. treaty already contains two relevant principles. One is “subsidiarity”: the idea that decisions should be taken at the most decentralized level of government consistent with effective action. The second is “proportionality”: the idea that E.U. legislation should be the minimum required to achieve a particular goal. If these two principles were properly followed, there would be far less concern about Brussels’ meddling in things that are none of its business — for example, its attempt this year to ban olive oil jugs in restaurants. Fortunately, it backed down after an outcry. The snag is that subsidiarity and proportionality are highly subjective, said José de Areilza, law professor at Spain’s Esade university. It is, therefore, extremely hard to use them to bring a successful court action against E.U. institutions for overstepping their authority. That does not mean, however, that the politicians and bureaucrats could not themselves agree to decentralize decisions where possible. This year, for example, the E.U. altered its fisheries policy to give some power back to countries. But this will not always succeed, because both the commission and the European Pariament have an incentive to accumulate power at the E.U. level. Further action should, therefore, be taken to breathe life into the subsidiarity and proportionality principles. One idea could be to tighten up their definitions so governments could bring actions against E.U. institutions if they meddled in things they should avoid — though some experts, like Mr. Areilza, think the concepts will always be too slippery to use for legal purposes. Another idea, favored by Open Europe, the British research organization, is to institute a system of “red cards,” giving national parliaments the ability to strike down commission proposals on the grounds that they contravene subsidiarity or proportionality. There is already a “yellow card” under which the commission has to reconsider a proposal if at least a third of national parliaments object. A variation on the theme would be to give parliaments the ability to force the commission to review existing legislation, not just new rules. Of course, it might still be impossible to repeal laws if the European Parliament refused to play along. But, if enough national parliaments objected, their greater legitimacy might force the issue. Breathing life into subsidiarity and proportionality would not be a complete solution to the Union’s legitimacy problem. Something special needs to be done to give countries that do not use the single currency confidence that the euro zone will not discriminate against them by acting as a bloc. The commission itself needs to be more effective at disciplining fraud and ensuring that governments stick to the rules of the game once they are agreed. Unless there is serious change on these lines, the peoples of Europe could well become increasingly disgruntled with the European project. Hugo Dixon is editor at large of Reuters News.

European Commission
Euro Crisis
EU
Conservative Party


Apple Earnings Up, but Stock Falls on Outlook

Abstract: Apple beat Wall Street expectations with its earnings report Tuesday, but its shares fell more than 11 percent in after-hours trading as investors fretted over its prospects. Apple earned $1.58 billion, or $1.76 for each diluted share, in the first quarter of fiscal 2008, compared with $1 billion, or $1.14 a share, in the period a year earlier. Revenue was $9.6 billion, up from $7.1 billion. But while Apple executives paraded those as record-setting figures, investors focused on projections for the next quarter, which were lower than what analysts had expected. Apple said it expected revenue of about $6.8 billion for the second quarter, or diluted earnings of 94 cents a share. Wall Street was forecasting profit of $1.09 a share on revenue of $7 billion. Peter Oppenheimer, Apple’s chief financial officer, gave two reasons for the lower forecast: a decline in software sales and the normal slowdown in business after Christmas. When asked whether the lumbering economy could be a factor in Apple’s earnings outlook, Mr. Oppenheimer said: “We’ll leave the economic forecasting to others.” Instead, he said, “our focus is on managing our business.” A slowdown in the economy is likely to hurt technology companies like Apple, which are dependent on consumers shelling out hundreds of dollars for their products. Just last week, Sprint Nextel announced that it was losing customers more quickly than expected, raising fears that spending on cellphones and other devices was slowing across the industry. Intel was also cautious about its financial outlook last week, in part because of concerns about a recession. A. M. Sacconaghi Jr., a senior analyst at Bernstein Research, said one reason for concern about Apple was that domestic sales of the iPod were less robust than the company had expected. Indeed, Mr. Oppenheimer of Apple said that sales of the iPod in the United States were little changed in the quarter, although iPod sales abroad were quite strong. (Over all, Apple saw a 5 percent increase in iPod sales in the first quarter compared with the period a year earlier.) What is worrisome, Mr. Sacconaghi said, is whether the flat domestic iPod sales are a harbinger of things to come for other Apple products. “That’s the big question,” he said. “If they feel it here, could they feel it in other products and other parts of the world?” Apple shares fell $5.72, or 3.5 percent, to close at $155.64. They were down more than $17 in after-hours trading. The iPhone remained a bright spot for the company. Apple sold 2.3 million in the quarter, according to Mr. Oppenheimer, and is on track to sell 10 million in 2008, as projected. Apple shipped 2.3 million Macintosh computers, and revenue from Macs grew 47 percent from the year-ago quarter. Mr. Sacconaghi said sales of Mac computers could start showing lower year-over-year growth. IPod sales could suffer, he said, because the company has been slow to update its cheaper iPod models, and holiday sales of MP3 players at the retailer Best Buy were down. At the Macworld Expo last week, Steven P. Jobs, Apple’s chief executive, made several announcements about new products or expanded services, including a new ultralight computer called the MacBook Air that, while elegant, has limited memory. Mr. Jobs also announced a deal with all of Hollywood’s major studios to allow digital movie rentals through the iTunes Store.


J.R. Smith Gets Knick Fans’ Support With Game 5 Work

Abstract: A warm ovation greeted J. R. Smith when he checked into Game 5 on Thursday with about five minutes left in the first quarter, but there was always a sense that the tenor could change quickly, and boos would re-emerge, if Smith’s current trend continued plummeting downward. If, as he did after Game 4, Smith stood in the postgame locker room and shouldered blame for another Knicks loss, all the kudos he had earned for his sensational regular-season play — along with potentially millions of dollars on the free-agent market — might be out the window. But the “ifs” would be postponed. For the first time since Game 3 of the Boston series, Smith played just well enough (13 points, with 6 rebounds and 3 steals) to keep the cheers coming at Madison Square Garden, momentarily dodging the avalanche of criticism hurtling his way. Asked if he had regained his confidence, Smith said: “A little bit. It always helps coming home and playing in front of these fans. Hopefully the little bit of rhythm I did get carries me over.” Smith put the burden on himself to break through his offensive slump — 28.1 percent shooting in the first four games of this series — and rediscover the edge that won him the sixth man of the year award. He told reporters Wednesday that his frustration level was “extremely high.” “J. R. has had his lumps as of late, but J. R. is still a big piece to our puzzle,” Coach Mike Woodson said before the game. “I still believe in J. R. I’m expecting a big game out of him tonight.” Afterward, Woodson said: "I thought he was focused. I thought he did a lot of good things.” Beforehand, Woodson said he “caught wind” of the latest distraction buzzing around Smith’s name earlier in the afternoon. A post on the pop singer Rihanna’s Instagram page referred to Smith’s partying appetite, alleging essentially that late nights were to blame for his struggles. Game 5: Knicks vs. Pacers 9 Photos View Slide Show › Image Barton Silverman/The New York Times In reports, Smith was seen at Jay-Z’s 40/40 Club on the eve of Game 1 and with Rihanna at a New York club hours after Game 2. He wound up with a 102-degree fever on the morning of Game 3 and struggled through 25 minutes of lethargic play. Woodson was asked if he thought the distractions had affected Smith. “I don’t know much about it,” Woodson said. “But it has no bearing on this game tonight. He’s got to go out and play.” After the game, Smith said: “I’m not worried about Instagram. I’m worried about the playoffs.” It remains to be seen how the reports will affect Smith’s paycheck if he decides to opt out of his contract with the Knicks, as he has indicated he might. Smith, who earns $2.93 million, has so-called early Bird rights and could receive up to $24.5 million over four years if he re-signs with the Knicks. A team with salary cap room could easily trump that figure, and the Knicks would not be able to match the offer. Before Smith’s postseason struggles, it looked as if the Knicks had little chance to re-sign him. But rival executives are bound to be more cautious investing in him now. He might need at least another performance like Thursday’s, when he hit three of his first five shots, found seams in the defense and even supplied some intangibles in the second quarter. He dove to corral a loose ball, blocked a fast-break layup attempt by D. J. Augustine into the crowd and drew a three-shot foul with 0.9 seconds remaining to help give the Knicks a 40-34 lead at halftime. Hitting his first shot “helps me out a lot,” Smith said, adding: “It takes the pressure off a lot. John Starks was telling me yesterday, ‘Don’t put so much emphasis and pressure on your first shot.’ I’ve just got to catch and shoot.” After his hot start, Smith finished the game 1 of 6, missing an open 3-pointer with less than two minutes remaining that would have cemented the win. “He missed some shots he normally makes,” Woodson said. “When he has shots, he has to make them.” Despite his misses, Smith dribbled out the clock on a Knicks win, and as the crowd cheered he was able to look forward to another chance to redeem himself on Saturday, in Game 6.

Knicks
Mike Woodson
Pacers
Basketball
J R Smith


Helton Always Knew Rockies Had It in Them

Abstract: DENVER, Oct. 28 (AP) — Todd Helton, the face of the franchise in Colorado, cracked a smile through his grizzly goatee as he stood on first base Saturday after a seventh-inning single in Game 3. The grins were few and far between for Helton early in the World Series against Boston. There was not much joy in the Rockies ’ clubhouse as they fell behind, three games to none, to the Red Sox. “We aren’t just happy to make the World Series,” said Helton, who owns virtually every offensive record in Rockies history. “We need to play a lot better baseball.” Still, the fans love him. As he walked off the field after batting practice Sunday before Game 4, a fan screamed, “We love you, Todd.” Helton stopped in his tracks at the top of the dugout steps, looked the fan in the eyes, grinned and pointed as if to say, “Thanks for the support.” Helton, the longest-tenured player in team history, had never tasted the postseason until this year. He had the third-most games of any active player without a playoff appearance, a distinction he was all too happy to snap. “I’ve just always had a confidence that we were going to make it,” he said. He has uncorked his emotions during the Rockies’ unbelievable late-season run. These were feelings that had been kept under lock and key most of his career. Helton has let his emotional guard down a little more each step of the journey, starting with the wild-card tie breaker against San Diego to seal a playoff spot. After a 9-8 victory against the Padres in 13 innings, he jumped around as if a burden had been lifted. As the Rockies swept Philadelphia and Arizona in the National League playoffs, there was Helton, continuing to wear his emotions on his sleeve. “I’m tremendously happy for Todd,” Rockies General Manager Dan O’Dowd said. AARON AWARDS ARE PRESENTED Prince Fielder’s favorite part of winning the Hank Aaron award was sitting nearby and listening to Aaron heap such glowing praise on him. “He carried his ball club all year,” Aaron said Sunday. “He is on his way to being part of the Cooperstown brigade.” Fielder, who had 50 home runs and 119 runs batted in for the Milwaukee Brewers, was picked by fans as the N.L.’s best hitter this season. Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez took the American League honor for the fourth time, the most of any player. He also won three straight with Texas from 2001-3. Fielder became the youngest player to hit 50 home runs in a season. Aaron, who spent much of his record-setting career in Milwaukee, said he enjoyed watching Fielder, a big first baseman, play. Fielder said: “I’m only 23, and when I was in high school I never thought I was going to be able to sit by him and have him say all those great things about me. I’m speechless.” Rodriguez did not attend the ceremony before Game 4 of the World Series because of a family matter, his agent, Scott Boras, said. In addition to presenting the award, Aaron was at Coors Field to announce a program that will provide children with financial support and mentoring. The collaboration between the Hank Aaron Chasing the Dream Foundation and the Boys & Girls Clubs of America will distribute 44 grants a year, in honor of Aaron’s uniform number. MATSUZAKA NOT NEW TO PLATE Daisuke Matsuzaka’s two-run single in Game 3 was his first hit on these shores, but he fancies himself quite the hitter back home. Matsuzaka was 4 for 19 with three R.B.I. during his career in the Japan, including a home run. That’s a .211 average — not bad for a pitcher. “I think it goes to show that they’re pretty good athletes,” Red Sox Manager Terry Francona said before Game 4 on Sunday. Matsuzaka struck out swinging in his first at-bat Saturday, then came up again in the third with the bases loaded and three runs already in. He singled to left to give himself a 5-0 lead. “I can’t quite say that I’m a confident hitter,” Matsuzaka said through an interpreter. “But I love hitting.”

World Series
Baseball
Colorado Rockies
Helton Todd


In Taking Jobs, Women Take On a Saudi Taboo

Abstract: RIYADH, Saudi Arabia — The bearded religious police officers were not the ones who chastised the princess running the Harvey Nichols department store here when she decided to enhance the upscale shopping atmosphere with some instrumental lute music. Instead, the irate caller accusing the store of anti-Islamic behavior was a frequent shopper, a woman who on average spent $13,000 per visit. “Maybe I should get whale sounds,” said the princess, Reema Bint Bandar al-Saud, making light of the blowback that businesspeople in this intensely religious and conservative kingdom often face when making even glacial changes to How Things Are Done. But this is part of being a pioneer in Saudi Arabia, where women are severely restricted in all public activities and are treated as the wards of their male relatives. Despite her royal credentials, the princess did away with the music but has pushed ahead on the equally touchy front of hiring women as salesclerks. This step — or leap, in the Saudi context — seeks to not only shift social conventions but also to aid the country’s long-term economic health. At Harvey Nichols, several dozen female clerks were spread throughout the store on a recent visit, all cloaked in black, their hair covered, some with only their eyes peering through narrow slits in face veils. They were busy arranging dresses, hawking cosmetics and swiping credit cards. Just two years ago there were only a few women working here. The kingdom’s restrictions on women have long drawn the condemnation of rights groups, most recently after dozens of women drew headlines by defying a ban on driving . But some women’s rights advocates here say that the international attention given to small numbers of women getting behind the wheel overshadows the deep, if gradual, shifts in Saudi society as more women work, broadening their range of experience, helping to run organizations and earning a degree of economic independence. Although the effort has been promoted by the Ministry of Labor as part of a campaign to reduce unemployment and the dependence on foreign workers, it has butted up against strict social codes. The percentage of Saudi women who work remains minuscule by world standards, at about 15 percent. Still, many employers say they prefer hiring Saudi women to Saudi men; they have added separate break rooms and office areas for women, and have installed partitions and cameras to prevent unwelcome mingling. “We are promoting recruitment of Saudi women because they have a low level of attrition, a better attention to detail, a willingness to perform and a productivity about twice that of Saudi men,” said a grocery store manager with branches throughout the kingdom. Despite that, Saudi women make up less than 5 percent of his staff of more than 1,000 because of social taboos in many areas. He spoke on the condition that neither he nor his company be identified to avoid being targeted by opponents of women’s employment. While working women in the Red Sea city of Jidda are relatively accepted, he said, the addition of female checkout clerks in a more conservative city caused such an uproar that a local prince intervened and paid the women’s salaries for more than a year — as long as they stayed home. Others have found business opportunities in bridging the gap between employers and women. “For some employers, it is their first time to hire women, and they don’t know how to deal with them,” said Khalid Alkhudair, 30, who runs a women’s employment service called Glowork that cooperates with the government to increase female employment. Frosted-glass partitions bearing inspirational quotes divide the company’s pink-walled office in Riyadh. On a recent morning, a dozen female employees sipped coffee as they sorted through applicants’ résumés on flat-screen monitors. All wore loose black gowns, some with their hair uncovered — a rare but increasingly common sight in some private offices. In two years, the company has found jobs for more than 10,000 women, including one chief financial officer, several human resource managers and a group of women at a light bulb factory, Mr. Alkhudair said. Yet across the kingdom, about two-thirds of female university graduates are unemployed, showing that the labor market has yet to catch up with huge advances in women’s education. Some Saudis laud King Abdullah as a reformer for appointing 30 women to a royal advisory council and granting women the right to run and vote in municipal elections. Others blast the kingdom for falling behind the rest of the world by failing to appoint female judges, ambassadors and ministers and leaving in place “guardianship laws” that bar women from traveling, working, marrying or undergoing certain medical procedures without permission from a male relative. “It is a crisis in dealing with modernity from the conservative society and the clerics,” said Hatoon al-Fassi, an associate professor of women’s history at King Saud University in Riyadh. “Every time something new occurs, they are suspicious and immediately think there must be a conspiracy of some kind that wants to decay our society.” Harvey Nichols has served as a pioneering case, benefiting from a small staff, ample resources and, of course, a royal boss. “This store is a big social experiment because we are talking about ladies who had severe obstacles in coming here,” said Princess Reema, 38, who was educated in the United States while her father, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, served as ambassador. Leading a visitor through her now music-free store, she explained that she had opened a nursery for employees’ children and given transportation stipends to women who could not drive themselves to work. The store does not regulate face veils, she said, adding that some women prefer to cover their faces at work. “Their families don’t necessarily want other people to know that their daughter is working in retail,” she said. For the same reason, female employees do not wear name tags. Two years ago, the store employed only 12 Saudi women, she said, including herself. That number has nearly quadrupled since then, she said, and it will keep growing. Jawharah, a 35-year-old saleswoman standing between racks of high-end dresses in a full face veil, said that this was her first job and that her husband had inspected the store before letting her take it. While her mother and aunts never worked, she said, all of her sisters now do. “It’s nice to get out and work and get paid,” she said.

Jobs
Saudi Arabia
Retail
Women's rights,Feminism
Women and Girls
Islam
Riyadh Saudi Arabia


Oklahoma: Congressman to Seek Coburn’s Seat

Abstract: Representative James Lankford on Monday announced his candidacy for the Senate seat left open by his fellow Republican, Senator Tom Coburn, who said last week he would resign at the end of this congressional session. A longtime director of one of the nation’s largest Christian youth summer camps, Mr. Lankford was a political unknown when he first won a House seat in 2010.

Oklahoma
James Lankford
Tom Coburn
Senate races


Merger Combines a Rare Earth Mining Firm With a Processor

Abstract: HONG KONG — One of the West’s two main rare earth metal mining companies announced on Friday that it was buying one of the world’s two main rare earth processing companies for $1.3 billion, the latest in a series of deals that are rapidly consolidating the industry. Molycorp, which operates the big American mine now being reopened and expanded in Mountain Pass, Calif., is buying Neo Material Technologies of Toronto, which makes specialty chemicals from rare earths at factories in China and Thailand. Rare earth metals are vital for making a wide range of high-tech products, including smartphones, smart bombs, large wind turbines and electric cars . Rare earths are also needed for oil refining and the production of high-quality glass for cameras and other applications. Molycorp is paying 71 percent of the cost of the deal in cash and the remaining 29 percent in shares. Molycorp valued its offer at 11.3 Canadian dollars for each share of Neo Material. That is a 42 percent premium to Neo Material’s closing price of 7.97 Canadian dollars on Thursday. Constantine Karayannopoulos, the chief executive and president of Neo Material, said that the deal started with an unsolicited but friendly offer from Molycorp on Jan. 24, and that the two companies’ boards worked quickly to figure out the details. The industry has been at the center of protracted trade and geopolitical disputes for the last two years, giving it a visibility far beyond its actual size. China, which mines and processes more than 90 percent of the world’s rare earths, halted shipments to Japan for two months starting in September 2010, during a territorial dispute over islands in the East China Sea. The embargo prompted an accelerated effort in the West to develop alternatives to China. The two main rare earth mining companies in the West are Molycorp, which is headquartered in Greenwood Village, Colo., and recently bought a small rival in Estonia, and Lynas, which is based in Sydney, Australia. Many Chinese companies also mine rare earths. The Chinese government is now trying to consolidate dozens of small rare earth mining companies into three state-owned giants. This could make the heavily polluting industry easier to regulate, but could also make it easier for the Chinese authorities to curb smuggling and restrict exports during international crises. The narrowest bottleneck in the global rare earth supply chain lies in taking fairly pure rare earths from the mining companies and processing them into high-tech materials of extremely high purity for electronics manufacturers, defense contractors, oil refiners and other companies. This industry is dominated by just two companies: Rhodia of France, a big chemical company that was bought last summer by Solvay of Belgium for $4.8 billion, and Neo Material. Neo Material and Rhodia currently buy most of their feedstock from China. But Neo Material has been working with Molycorp and Rhodia has been working with Lynas to develop alternatives. “Their issue has always been, Where do we get the feedstock?” Mark A. Smith, the chief executive of Molycorp, said in a telephone interview. He added that for his own company, the question has been, “How do we achieve those levels of purity?” Mr. Karayannopoulos, the chief executive of Neo Material, said in a separate telephone interview that no job losses were expected from the merger because it involved the vertical integration of a mining company and a processor with very few overlapping operations. The Chinese embargo in 2010 caused considerable alarm not just among Japanese manufacturers but also a wide range of American and European multinationals that depend on components from Japan that use rare earths. China’s willingness to use trade and strategic minerals as tools to advance its territorial objectives also dismayed countries in Southeast Asia with competing claims with China to the South China Sea, and contributed to calls for a greater American military presence in the region as a counterbalance to Chinese rising power. The European Union and the United States have been preparing a possible case for the World Trade Organization challenging China’s export quotas on rare earths. A merger of Molycorp and Neo Material is subject to approval by Neo Material’s shareholders and by regulators in Washington and Canada. Mr. Karayannopoulos said that he was confident of shareholder approval and Mr. Smith said that Molycorp had already been in touch with officials in Washington and had not encountered any anti-trust concerns. The deal may not do much to change the West’s heavy dependence on China in the rare earth industry. Mr. Smith said that Molycorp would ship some of its rare earths for processing at Neo Material chemical factories in China and Thailand. Mr. Karayannopoulos said that Neo Material had no plans to move its factories out of China as most of the world’s demand is now there, including that of Western companies that have shifted operations to China over the last several years so as to be sure of access to Chinese rare earths. The Chinese government has an official policy of encouraging the rest of the world to develop rare earth reserves, so as to remove the environmental burden on China of producing almost all of the world’s supply. Critics have attributed the policy to a Chinese desire to defend itself against a likely W.T.O. complaint that it has discriminated against foreign buyers of rare earths so as to force them to move factories to China. Molycorp has worked closely with the Defense Department and the Energy Department in Washington to find ways to build rare earth stockpiles and improve recycling so as to reduce dependence on China. Mr. Karayannopoulos said that within an hour of announcing the deal, Neo Material had begun telling Chinese officials that the company’s merger with Molycorp was consistent with China’s official policy of encouraging rare earth resource development elsewhere and environmental protection in China. Mr. Karayannopoulos said that Molycorp’s rare earths are among the world’s cleanest in terms of having virtually no contaminants. Malaysian regulators granted Lynas a temporary operating license on Feb. 1 for its new rare earth refinery in eastern peninsular Malaysia, but that project remains the target of a lawsuit and large street protests by activists who contend that it could release radioactive pollution. Lynas insists its project is safe.

Rare Earths
China
Japan
Molycorp Inc
Mines and Mining
Mergers Acquisitions and Divestitures
International Trade and World Market
Neo Materials Technologies Inc


The Future Divined by the Crowd

Abstract: Correction Appended LAST Sunday was Oscar night, which of course meant movie stars, glamour, Jon Stewart's jokes and -- drum roll, please! -- Michael J. Mauboussin's annual economics experiment. Or rather, his annual economics eye-opener. Mr. Mauboussin is a well-known Wall Street strategist, now with Legg Mason, who gained a following for an offbeat, scholarly newsletter called The Consilient Observer, in which he tackled such diverse subjects as what investors can learn from Tupperware parties and why stress can lower investment performance. His work is sometimes dense, but always original. Since 1993, Mr. Mauboussin has also been an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School. Every year, as the Academy Awards approach, he asks his students to vote for the winners in 12 categories, not just the biggies but some relatively obscure ones, like best film editing and best art direction. Then, after the Oscars have been awarded, he tallies the results and compares the students' predictions with the winners. This year, the pick that got the most votes -- the consensus pick, he calls it -- turned out to be right in 9 of the 12 categories, including, amazingly enough, film editing and art direction. And yet, of the 47 students who participated, only one matched the accuracy of the consensus. None did better, and most did much worse; according to Mr. Mauboussin, the average number of correct answers per ballot this year was only 4.1. "It has never failed," he said. "The consensus invariably does much better than the average student." The point of Mr. Mauboussin's little experiment is to illustrate the power of so-called prediction markets, in which groups of people guess or bet on something, with the results aggregated into a consensus. Prediction markets, while not perfect, are surprisingly accurate -- certainly more accurate than individual experts or polls, research has found. The granddaddy of prediction markets, the Iowa Electronic Market, which the University of Iowa has run since the late 1980's, allows people to make election predictions. The consensus almost always beats the polling data; in the last presidential election, for instance, it not only steadfastly predicted a Bush victory, but came within 1.1 percentage point of the actual result. PREDICTION markets aren't just for curious academics anymore; in the last few years, there has been an explosion of interest. A handful of dot-coms, with names like Hollywood Stock Exchange, hedgestreet.com and Newsfutures, offer people the chance to predict everything from how much a new movie will gross in its first month to whether gasoline prices will rise. (Hedgestreet.com's slogan is: "It's your economy. Trade it.") Some sites plan to permit Wall Street traders to begin trading on such questions, much in the way commodities traders bet on the future price of soybeans. Perhaps most intriguing, companies have begun experimenting with prediction markets as a new kind of forecasting tool. Though it's still a little early to say for sure, prediction markets could wind up changing the ways companies go about making decisions. There are two recent events that gave rise to this new interest. The first was a quasi-disaster. In 2003, John M. Poindexter, who was heading up a small research group inside the Pentagon, tried to create a public prediction market for geopolitical events, including possible terrorist attacks. But the criticism was swift -- Mr. Poindexter was accused of creating "terrorism futures" -- and the program was killed. Still, the publicity got a lot of businesspeople thinking about the utility of prediction markets. "The Pentagon," chuckled Alexander Costakis, who runs the Hollywood Stock Exchange, "put it on the map." The second event was the publication, in 2004, of "The Wisdom of Crowds," by James Surowiecki, a business columnist with The New Yorker. Mr. Surowiecki's title was purposely meant to echo -- and contradict -- Charles Mackay's famous 1841 work, "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds," which Mr. Surowiecki describes, correctly, as "an endlessly entertaining chronicle of mass manias and collective follies." No one argues that crowds don't sometimes go mad; from Dutch tulips to dot-com bubbles, the evidence is pretty irrefutable. But Mr. Surowiecki set out to show that far more often, the crowd got it right. His book is filled with examples of the power of "collective intelligence," as he likes to call it. For instance, Mr. Surowiecki describes a case in which a naval officer located a sunken submarine by asking people with bits of specific expertise to take their best guess. Their collective answer turned out to be within a few hundred yards of the submarine's location. Another example came on Jan. 28, 1986, the day the Challenger shuttle exploded. All the stocks of rocket makers were down that day, of course, but by far the hardest hit was Morton Thiokol -- which made the faulty part that was responsible for the disaster. The stock market is nothing if not a prediction market writ large. But how could the market possibly have known about Morton Thiokol's culpability on the first day? No information had been revealed. There was no excessive insider selling. There wasn't even any media speculation as to the culprit. Yet, somehow the market knew. Two of the people who read Mr. Surowiecki's book were Eric E. Schmidt, the chief executive of Google, and Bo Cowgill, a young Google executive. Being a forward-thinking geek, Mr. Cowgill decided to set up some prediction markets at Google, and management gave him the go-ahead. He's been doing it for a year now. The Google market is internal only -- the voters are all Google employees. To avoid insider-trading problems, Mr. Cowgill stays away from any stock price or quarterly earnings questions. And to entice people to participate he gives away T-shirts. And he asks pretty useful questions: "When will a product launch? How much will a particular feature be used? How many full-time people will accept jobs at Google in the next quarter?" he said. The utility of such forecasting is clear: it is important for companies to know when a product will be introduced, and tapping into the collective intelligence of employees to predict the date is at least as good a way to find out as talking to the project manager. In fact, it is probably a better way; at a recent conference, Mr. Cowgill presented a series of slides showing that Google's internal market was amazingly accurate, especially in markets in which lots of people participated. Google is hardly the only company doing this. Eli Lilly has used internal markets to forecast drug development. Hewlett-Packard has become a fan. Emile Servan-Schreiber, the chief executive of Newsfutures, sells software to companies that helps them set up prediction markets. His first customer, in 2003, was Eli Lilly. Now, he says, he is working with 12 to 15 companies. Yahoo has gone about it a different way, setting up a public market called Tech Buzz. It allows people to make bets on which technologies will be popular in the future; the point, for Yahoo, is to get out in front of popular coming search terms. "The more we know about trends, the better we can adapt our search services," said David Pennock, who runs the predictive markets for Yahoo. Still, it's hard to know for sure whether predictive markets will turn out to be the next big thing. "There is a lot of interest, but we're still missing the big success story," said Robin D. Hanson, a professor at George Mason University and a reigning expert in the field. "People are trying it on small, cute things. We haven't seen a company that's made $1 million using this stuff." Indeed, Mr. Cowgill told me that he really had no idea how Google's management used the forecasts generated by the company's prediction markets. Mr. Servan-Schreiber said the companies that were showing interest were "early adopters." One of his clients, Corning, has set up a prediction market to gauge demand for L.C.D. screens, which it manufactures. "Corning has billions on the line, and it needs to be able to assess demand," Mr. Servan-Schreiber said. Maybe that experiment will turn out to be the success story Mr. Hanson is looking for. (Corning, alas, declined to comment.) The real problem for prediction markets is that the notion is so counterintuitive. We're used to the idea that experts, full of specialized knowledge, will get it right far more often than a crowd of people with no special insight. The thought that the reverse is actually closer to the truth is hard to get one's head around. "I'm not sure why it works," Mr. Mauboussin said. But then he offered a theory. "All of us walk around with a little information and a substantial error term. And when we aggregate our results, the errors tend to cancel each other out and what is distilled is pure information." Well, maybe. Myself, I'm going with the "Shakespeare in Love" theory. You recall, surely, the producer played by Geoffrey Rush. Whenever he was asked how it was that a play that seemed to be such a hopeless muddle during rehearsal was transformed into a gem on opening night, he had a stock reply, one that seems to describe prediction markets perfectly: "It's a miracle." Correction: March 17, 2006, Friday The Joe Nocera column in Business Day on Saturday, about prediction markets, in which groups of people guess or bet on something with the results aggregated into a consensus, misstated a line from the actor Geoffrey Rush in "Shakespeare in Love" that was used to explain how the aggregated information tended to reflect events accurately. He said, "It's a mystery," not a miracle.


In N.F.L.’s TV Blackouts, Fans Pay One Way or Another

Abstract: Mr. Goodell, lift those television blackouts — and let the people of Detroit watch the Lions . O.K., the Lions are coming off an 0-16 season, but their fans still deserve to watch them at home. In a city with a wheezing automotive industry and a jobless rate near 30 percent, people need diversions. But N.F.L. Commissioner Roger Goodell said he would not waive the blackout policy to accommodate the wreckage of the Great Recession. His predecessor, Paul Tagliabue, properly waived it in 2005 when Hurricane Katrina sent the New Orleans Saints from the damaged Louisiana Superdome to “home” games at L.S.U. and in San Antonio. And Goodell should waive it now. The economy, even in a slow recovery, did not physically devastate cities the way Katrina did. But it has devastated millions of lives through widespread layoffs, foreclosures and bankruptcies. In reducing, or eliminating, people’s disposable income, the recession has slowed the sale of season tickets. But Goodell, on Thursday, affirmed that the league’s 36-year-old blackout policy would stay in place. “It’s been, I think, very good for the game, for the fans, for the teams,” he told a gathering of reporters at league headquarters. “We continue to do what we can, knowing what our fans are going through in this environment.” He listed various ticket-sale modifications and said that 24 teams had kept ticket prices flat. He contended that the economic woes causing N.F.L. ticket sales to slip by nearly 10 percent added up to a short-term problem. We all hope so. But it’s been an awfully big short-term problem, hasn’t it? “We have 20 teams already sold out for the season,” Greg Aiello, a league spokesman, wrote in an e-mail message on Friday. “We have always believed in putting a high priority on selling tickets and filling out stadiums.” Full stadiums look better on TV than half-empty ones, which have been all too visible during the preseason. But if enough people can’t afford the tickets, why penalize a team’s hometown fan base with the blackout hammer — making them drive 75 miles outside the market or searching for a pirated TV or Internet signal to catch the game? A Detroit fan, nicknamed BIGorangeD, pleaded with N.F.L. owners on a Lions blog earlier this week: “Your fans have sacrificed for you. Can’t you now sacrifice for them?” During Goodell’s interview session, he said: “Now accept that unemployment is 20 percent in Detroit” — actually it is 28.9 percent — “but things are tough in Buffalo, I can tell you that right now. Things are tough in New Orleans. But New Orleans is sold out for the season and Buffalo’s pretty darn close to it.” Yes, things are rough all over, whether in Buffalo (where the jobless rate is 10.5 percent), New Orleans (11 percent), San Diego (10.3 percent) or Jacksonville (11 percent), where the Jaguars are in danger of multiple blackouts. The challenge of selling tickets in Jacksonville, he said, may extend beyond economic factors. An economy meaner than any since the 1930s requires that Goodell say more than that 75 percent of the teams have not raised ticket prices or that ticket-selling policies have been eased. It requires what’s really good for the fans, and that is to lift the blackouts this season. If 20 teams are sold out, then it will be an issue with 12 clubs, some of whom will eventually sell out some or all of their games. What’s the worst that can happen — that fans will see TV images of stadiums that aren’t full of fans? Last year, four percent of the 256 N.F.L. games were blacked out; five in Detroit, and two each in Oakland and St. Louis. This season, the league expects the number to jump to 25 to 50 blackouts — a problem, but not a crisis. In the 1990s, there were anywhere from 39 to 88 blackouts, and in the 70s the number peaked at 114. Neal Pilson, a sports industry consultant and a former president of CBS Sports, said that Goodell’s hewing to the blackout rules underscores how important selling tickets is to the league. “It’s been bedrock policy since they used to black out all home games,” he said. “They want people to come to the stadium.” But if they can’t afford to, why stick rigidly to a policy made for better times? Relax it this season and revisit it next year. And Mr. Goodell, if you don’t make this short-term, fan-friendly change, then stream the blacked-out games on nfl.com or let local stations replay the blacked-out games on Monday mornings. You might please loyal fans in economic distress — and grab some good public relations.

Television
Football
Economic Conditions and Trends
Goodell Roger
National Football League
Detroit Lions


As Bubka Watches, His Record, Set in 1993, Falls

Abstract: The timing could have been better for the French pole-vaulter Renaud Lavillenie. If you are going to break one of the great records in sports, it is probably best not to break it when much of the sports world is preoccupied with the Winter Olympics. France has been closely following the exploits of its biathlete Martin Fourcade, the winner of two gold medals so far in Sochi. But Lavillenie stole the spotlight Saturday night by breaking Sergei Bubka’s nearly 21-year-old world record at an indoor meet in Donetsk, Ukraine, with Bubka watching and applauding from the stands. Lavillenie, 27, did it by clearing 6.16 meters (20 feet 2.5 inches) without so much as grazing the bar on his first attempt, his eyes and mouth wide with the implications of it all even before he had gotten all his limbs over the horizontal bar. “It’s going to take me some time to come back down,” Lavillenie said in French in an interview with BFM TV . “It was a world record that was so mythical. To do it on the first attempt, without touching, all you can do is just savor it.” Bubka’s world records of 6.14 meters outdoors (20-1 ¾) and 6.15 meters indoors (20-2), the latter set in Donetsk on Feb. 21, 1993, had long been considered impregnable. A Ukrainian who spent much of his career representing the Soviet Union, Bubka was ahead of and above his time. He largely dominated the pole vault for a decade, from the early 1980s to the early 1990s, and he set 18 world records indoors and 17 outdoors, usually in one-centimeter increments to maximize his earning power and increase the number of world-record bonuses he was able to collect. No one had seriously challenged him until Saturday; Bubka had the best six indoor marks in history. (He still has the best nine marks outdoors.) Lavillenie, the 2012 Olympic champion, gradually transformed himself into a threat, clearing 6 meters indoors and outdoors. Still, few could have imagined he would strike so quickly. In December, the French sports daily L’Équipe published a holiday “dream” edition in which it reported on imaginary sports stories as if they were fact. On the front page, Lavillenie was clearing a bar with the number “6,16.” The article was dated Aug. 24, 2015, and the dateline was Beijing, where the next world outdoor championships will take place. In the article, the real Lavillenie played along by answering questions as if he had indeed broken the record, and on Saturday night, L’Équipe republished that interview in a hurry on its website. “From fiction to reality,” the website read. Lavillenie’s best mark until this year was 6.03 meters indoors. But he cleared 6.04 meters in Rouen, France, on Jan. 25 and then 6.08 meters in Bydgoszcz, Poland, on Jan. 31. On Saturday, he went eight centimeters higher, a huge improvement for a veteran pole-vaulter. Lavillenie told reporters that, having not competed since the Poland meet, he felt fresh when he arrived in Donetsk, the city where Bubka grew up, where Bubka set the now-former world record and where there is now a statue of Bubka, pole in hand. “I knew I had the potential to attack it,” Lavillenie said of the record. “But from that point, to beat it so quickly is a whole other story.” After he landed, Lavillenie spread his arms wide and then ran off the mat and back up the runway. In the stands, Bubka, now 50, was smiling and applauding. “A new era in the sport has arrived,” Bubka told reporters in Donetsk after congratulating Lavillenie. “Today the winner is an Olympic champion, someone who already has tasted success several times.” Lavillenie, at 5 feet 9 inches, is short for a world-class pole-vaulter. But he is a dynamic, explosive presence down the runway, and he has told L’Équipe that he first believed a world record was possible when he cleared 6.01 meters at the 2013 European indoor championships with nearly 15 centimeters to spare. But this time the bar was in the right place, the record-breaking place, and unlike Bubka, who would have happily taken his pole and his bonus and called it a night, Lavillenie tried again at 6.21 meters. He was unsuccessful, but that is surely not what the French or anyone else will remember about Saturday night in Donetsk.

Renaud Lavillenie
Sergei Bubka
Pole vault
Track and field
Records and Achievements


Libya’s Television Channel Is a Target

Abstract: Libya’s first independent television channel, Libya Al-Hurra, which emerged after the uprising that toppled Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi’s government, said Friday that a hand grenade was hurled at its building in the eastern city of Benghazi. An employee, Tareq el-Issawi, said a colleague was wounded in the overnight attack outside Libya Al-Hurra’s offices. This week, 31 people were killed in protests against militias in Benghazi.

Libya
Libya Al-Hurra
Benghazi
Arab Spring


Union Pacific’s Profit Jumps 35%

Abstract: The Union Pacific Corporation said Thursday that its fourth-quarter profit jumped 35 percent after the company spent less on fuel, improved productivity and increased some shipping prices. But to help deal with uncertain demand, Union Pacific officials said they would probably reduce their active work force of roughly 47,000 by 5 percent during the first quarter of 2009. In 2008, Union Pacific furloughed 3,150 workers. Union Pacific, the railroad company based in Omaha, said it had net income of $661 million, or $1.31 a share, in the fourth quarter, up from $491 million, or 93 cents a share, a year ago. The railroad’s quarterly revenue increased 2 percent to $4.29 billion, from $4.2 billion. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected quarterly earnings of $1.23 a share on revenue of $4.3 billion. Union Pacific’s shares rose $2.73, or 6.7 percent, to close at $43.25 in Thursday trading.

Union Pacific Corporation
Company Reports


Engineers Seek Ways to Fortify New York’s Power Grid

Abstract: It was described by one participant as a “party for engineers”: a conference of more than 500 specialists brainstorming about a grid so powerful that New York State could embrace wind power, cut electricity rates and close the Indian Point nuclear plant. Yet many participants emphasized obstacles and uncertainties at the meeting on Wednesday in Upper Manhattan. The forum was organized by a state task force on Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo’s proposal to create a robust “energy highway.” The state is awash in generating capacity because the recession has stunted industrial demand. But the state’s energy infrastructure is ailing, said Gil C. Quinones, president and chief executive of the New York Power Authority and co-chairman of the task force. He noted that 42 percent of the state’s power plants were more than 40 years old, and 22 percent were more than 50 years old. At some transmission bottlenecks, he said, the state relies on antiquated transmission lines on wooden poles. “We utilities don’t like to say ‘old,’ but they’re aging,” said James P. Laurito, president of the Central Hudson Gas and Electric Corporation and the chairman of a statewide study of transmission and reliability. Of the 12,000 miles of transmission lines in New York State, about 4,700 will require replacement in the next 40 years, he said. Bottlenecks in the system cost consumers $1.1 billion in 2010, he said, with cheap power from upstate unable to squeeze into downstate areas and more expensive plants supplying the electricity instead. The state also needs a better grid to “allow for the potential retirement of Indian Point,” Mr. Laurito said. A 2012-13 state budget agreement announced last month by Governor Cuomo and legislative leaders includes $16.2 million for energy research and development and for a plan to secure billions of dollars in private investment in the so-called energy highway. The governor, who is seeking to force the two Indian Point reactors to close in the next few years as their initial 40-year operating licenses expire, wants that plan to reduce the reactors’ importance in the system. But James F. X. Steets, a spokesman for Entergy, the plant’s owner, said that the more emphasis was put on reliability and on clean energy as opposed to fossil fuels, the more likely it was that Indian Point would keep running. Joseph P. Oates, the vice president for energy management at Con Edison, which formerly owned an Indian Point reactor, said: “I’m not going to say it’s a good plant or a bad plant. But if you’re going to shut it down, you have to have something in its place.” The state task force is supposed to develop a blueprint for development and financing by late summer, based partly on submissions from companies that attended the meeting on Wednesday. Paul N. Steckley, director of transmission development at Brookfield Asset Management , a Toronto company that owns 4,000 megawatts of renewable generation, questioned whether New York could develop an approval process fast enough to assure rapid construction of transmission lines. Indian Point’s operating licenses expire in 2013 and 2015. “There is transmission to be developed here — it’s a matter of how quickly,” he said. Securing regulatory approval for new transmission lines in New York State is arduous. New York State’s last major internal transmission line, the 207-mile Marcy South line, which runs from the Utica area into Dutchess County in the Hudson Valley, was finished in 1988. A smaller project, a 9.5-mile line from Yonkers to Upper Manhattan, was completed last year. It has been easier to build new connections to neighboring states than across New York State. Two underwater lines running to Long Island, one from New Jersey and one from Connecticut, have been completed in recent years. A 600-megawatt line running under the Hudson from New Jersey to Midtown Manhattan is supposed to open next year. John Zahurancik, the vice president of AES Energy Storage, said he hoped the updating of New York’s grid would make space for projects like a battery bank that his company has proposed to build on Long Island. AES envisions batteries that would charge at night, when electricity demand is low, using power lines and efficient power plants that would otherwise be idle. In principle, the bank could be used in place of a new large, expensive “peaking” power plant that would run for four hours or so on hot afternoons. James Denn, a spokesman for the New York Public Service Commission, emphasized that the push for a new grid was occurring amid particular market uncertainty. “We have record low natural gas prices, so you don’t know which kind of power plant to build,” he said. If prices remain low, anything built other than gas plants will not be competitive, specialists said.

New York State
New York Power Authority
Electric Light and Power
Indian Point Nuclear Power Plant (NY)
Energy and Power


A Different Kind of Yankee Rotation

Abstract: MOOSIC, Pa. — Ruth. Gehrig. DiMaggio. Jeter. Scranton? Some of baseball’s most famous names have carried the Yankees to the playoffs over the years. But if the Yankees get there this season — they are comfortably atop the wild-card standings and in contention for the division title with less than six weeks remaining — they will owe a debt to a less illustrious source: their Class AAA affiliate, the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders, whose stadium is in Moosic. With a lineup that features the resurgent sluggers Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira, the Yankees — so used to throwing money at their problems — have also counted on an extreme personnel tactic to spur their surprising season. It may be remembered as the Scranton shuttle. When one pitcher needs a break, he is sent down, and a fresh arm is called up. The Yankees have recalled or demoted a pitcher in 43 transactions this season, about once every three games. The latest occurred Wednesday when Nick Goody, who was called up earlier in the day, was sent back to Scranton after pitching in the Yankees’ 6-2 loss to the Houston Astros. “We certainly mapped out and talked about it, doing this cycling thing so we would keep people as fresh as we possibly can and kind of extend the 12-man pitching staff into a 16- to 21-man pitching staff,” General Manager Brian Cashman said. It begins with a phone call, or maybe a nod that the manager needs to have a word. Then the routine gathers steam: packing bags, exchanging hugs and handshakes, and waiting for a ride — either to the airport, where a business-class seat usually awaits, or from a car service, allowing for the two-hour drive between Scranton, Pa., and New York to be made in the back-seat comfort of a tinted-windowed sport utility vehicle. Image Nick Goody has pitched for the RailRiders and the Yankees this year. Credit Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press Earlier this season, the player on that journey might have felt euphoric or glum, depending on the direction. But by now, the journey between the Yankees and the RailRiders has become so commonplace — and been made by more than a dozen young pitchers — that it is something closer to perfunctory. “Wherever they call my name to go and pitch, that’s where I go,” Branden Pinder said last Thursday night while he was waiting out a rainstorm. On Friday night, he was called to New York. Pinder has been called up and sent down in April, May, June, July and August. He has worn four uniform numbers for the RailRiders and two for the Yankees. What makes this constant migration somewhat unusual is that it is by plan. To compensate for a starting rotation that is too fragile or too inconsistent to regularly pitch deep into games, the Yankees have recalled 19 pitchers — including 10 who have made their major league debuts — to soak up innings that would otherwise fall to already taxed bullpen regulars. Capitalizing on Depth In an age when analytics are taking on an increasing role in the way teams are constructed, the Yankees are not the only team that has shuttled pitchers in and out in the name of efficiency. The Tampa Bay Rays and the Los Angeles Dodgers have employed a similar strategy, although for different reasons. The Rays are loath to allow their starting pitchers to run through a lineup three times while the Dodgers have cycled pitchers in and out of the organization. All have taken advantage of having a precious commodity: young pitchers. Generally, in a player’s first three seasons on the 40-man roster, he can be sent, or optioned, to the minors as often as a team wants without losing him. The only stipulation is that once a player is sent down, he cannot be recalled for 10 days, except in the case of injury. If a team has stockpiled enough talent, players can be rotated. The Yankees’ strategy was born out of circumstance. Three pitchers in the rotation at the start of the season — Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda and C. C. Sabathia — were coming off injuries sustained last year, and another, Ivan Nova, did not rejoin the team until June, after recovering from elbow surgery. Tanaka, Pineda and Sabathia have each spent time on the disabled list this year, and Sabathia, with a degenerative knee, could be out for the rest of the season. The Yankees had made several acquisitions, including Andrew Miller, to fortify their bullpen. In addition, their stockpile of pitchers from recent drafts had moved closer to being big league ready. “It’s just a proper evaluation of what we are and trying to maximize the benefits of everything we have,” Cashman said. “We knew we were going to have a five-man rotation that would be closer to five and fly or six and fly,” meaning the starting pitcher would be removed from a game after five or six innings. Cashman continued: “So that’s why we addressed as many of the bullpen needs as we possibly could last winter, and in conjunction with that, we had a lot of good, young arms with options, which you need to do that. We’re certainly using that to our benefit for performance and health.” Image Branden Pinder Credit Julie Jacobson/Associated Press When rosters are expanded on Sept. 1 to 40 players, from 25, shuttling pitchers will no longer be necessary. That will be a welcome relief. Yankees relievers had thrown the third-most innings in the American League entering Wednesday (4062/3), and the relievers who have shuttled between Scranton and New York accounted for about 30 percent of them. Most of the innings come when the Yankees are behind so that the best relievers — Dellin Betances and Miller — can be preserved to close out games in which the Yankees lead. Typically, when the Yankees make a move, the wheels are set in motion when Cashman meets with Manager Joe Girardi and the pitching coach Larry Rothschild after a game. When they have decided who is going down and who is coming up, Cashman will alert Dave Miley, the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre manager, and Ben Tuliebitz, the Yankees’ director of team travel and player services, who in turn will contact the RailRiders trainer Darren London, who handles their travel arrangements. If the Yankees are headed to Toronto, the player on his way up is reminded not to forget his passport. The clubhouse managers, Rob Cucuzza with the Yankees and Mike Macciocco with the RailRiders, will be in touch to make sure the players have the proper uniforms. Image Nick Rumbelow pitching against the Indians on Sunday. Credit Al Bello/Getty Images Often it is near midnight by the time that players have been notified and that travel itineraries for the next day have been set. “This is as wild as I’ve seen it with the amount of transactions,” Macciocco said. “But it’s cool to see all these guys get an opportunity.” One of those came July 24 when Macciocco chased down Goody as he was driving out of the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre stadium parking lot. A few minutes later, Goody was in Miley’s office learning he would join the Yankees for the first time. Goody emptied his locker into his RailRiders equipment bag, then raced back to his apartment and loaded up all the clothes he could fit into his Yankees equipment bag. “I grabbed everything,” said Goody, who spent that night on the living room couch — although he barely slept — before heading to the airport the next morning, his two big bags in tow, to catch up with the Yankees in Arlington, Tex. Image Caleb Cotham, who is in his seventh year of pro ball, pitching last month. He said of all the shuttling, “I’ll deal with that a million times.” Credit Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press Three days later, Goody was sent back to Scranton without having pitched — or having worn many of his clothes. “The next two times I packed lighter,” said Goody, who eventually made his major league debut on July 30. Nick Rumbelow keeps a suitcase with a week’s worth of clothes packed at his apartment in Scranton. When he gets a call to join the Yankees, he adds toiletries and a few other items and is ready to go. “It’s almost a habit for how I’ll always prepare for life in general,” said Rumbelow, whose locker at Yankee Stadium is as uncluttered as a Japanese rock garden: two caps and two gloves on the top shelf, three pair of shoes on the bottom, clothes hung neatly on hangers. He continued: “When things are prepared, you function more properly, more efficiently. When I got the call, I didn’t have to scramble to pack my bag. It was just a matter of receiving a phone call and saying, ‘O.K., I’m ready to go.’ It relieves a lot of stress.” Image Several players share a duplex in Scranton as they move back and forth between the majors and minors. Credit Brett Carlsen for The New York Times Adjusting to the Majors Still, there is much to learn because the RailRiders, their pinstriped home pants notwithstanding, are not the Yankees. When the Yankees travel, they do so on a chartered jet — no eight-hour bus rides to Toledo. And they have a no-jeans rule on travel days. Rodriguez and Carlos Beltran, who have made hundreds of millions of dollars in their careers, often dress in finely tailored suits with sunglasses and coordinated ties and pocket squares, looking as if they are headed to Milan instead of Minneapolis. “All these guys are wearing suits, and here I am looking like a bum,” said Goody, who wore blue slacks and a white dress shirt. For his next trip, Goody enlisted the help of his fiancée to pick out something more presentable. Each day a player like Goody stays on the Yankees, he can throw a little more money at his wardrobe. The prorated daily rate for a player making the major league minimum is $2,773 — about 10 times what a player on a split contract gets in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. This explains why most RailRiders room with teammates. Pitchers Caleb Cotham, Chris Martin and Goody and outfielder Slade Heathcott — all of whom have been up with the Yankees this season — share a three-bedroom duplex. Whoever returned from the Yankees most recently ends up in the living room, except for Cotham, because he is accompanied by his wife, Candace — a sign, perhaps, that chivalry exists somewhere in baseball. “That trumps everything else,” Cotham said with a smile. “She’s a trouper.” Few players are more appreciative of their time with the Yankees than Cotham. At 27, he is in his seventh season of professional baseball. The shuttling back and forth, often based on nothing more than whether a pitcher is fresh enough to throw that day, is a first-world problem. “I’ll deal with that a million times,” he said. “If you start thinking about that, it just leads you down a dark path. I want to pitch in the big leagues for a long time, so I have to keep evolving. It was hard for me to get there, so now I have to figure out how to stay.” He is not the only one with some figuring to do. Tuliebitz was busy Tuesday, finishing up the room arrangements for the Yankees’ trip that begins Thursday with a flight to Atlanta, when he stopped himself with a question: “Is Pinder here today?”

Yankees
Baseball
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
Brian Cashman


From Low-Wage Jobs to a Dress-for-Success Tale

Abstract: When she started her latest job search in the spring of 2008, Monica Mateo had had her fill of low-wage, mind-numbing work. She had taken customers’ orders at Kentucky Fried Chicken, Pizza Hut and Burger King. She had passed days making copies of bootlegged DVDs. And she had endured a series of less-than-ideal security-guard posts, most recently in an apartment building in the Bronx where, she said, some second-floor occupants were operating a brothel. Ms. Mateo, 28, decided to enlist the help of the New Heights Neighborhood Center , a nonprofit organization that had helped her find work seven years earlier. In regular meetings, a caseworker there began to assess Ms. Mateo’s work experience and her performance at job interviews, as well as her eligibility for public assistance. “But I don’t need welfare,” Ms. Mateo recalled saying. Her mother relied on public assistance while raising her, her brother and her sister in Washington Heights. “I just need a decent job.” In mock interviews with her caseworker, Ms. Mateo noticed that she said “um” between most sentences and “yeah” instead of yes. She noted, too, that her answers to questions could be imprecise and that she tended to explain things more than needed. When, some weeks later, she was invited to interview for a patient-escort position at a Manhattan hospital, she felt prepared. She borrowed a pair of black slacks, paired them with a brown blazer and set out to apply her newly acquired insights. She walked out of the interview feeling troubled. She sensed that something had gone awry, but could not put her finger on what. She was disheartened by her interviewer’s seeming preoccupation with her twisties, the braidlike strands into which she had styled her hair. Her clothes, which had seemed very smart before the interview, suddenly felt less so. “I guess I don’t look right,” she concluded. Ms. Mateo did not get the job, and her caseworker at New Heights, a beneficiary agency of the Community Service Society , one of seven organizations supported by The New York Times Neediest Cases Fund , then tapped the fund to take Ms. Mateo shopping at Loehmann’s, a store that sells designer clothes at a discount. There, Ms. Mateo ruled out three pantsuits — “too big”; “too conservative”; “too ’70s”— in favor of the one she took home: a $125 black, cotton-blend, classic-cut. At her next interview, for another position as a patient escort, at New York University Medical Center, Ms. Mateo felt markedly more confident. She did not feel as though her appearance had been “broken into pieces,” she said. “I felt whole.” Not long afterward, in August 2008, Ms. Mateo was offered the job. She began bringing home about $700 a month and, most days, a sense of satisfaction and pleasure derived from helping patients. There is one task she does not enjoy — taking deceased patients to the morgue. She does not like the cold there. She does not like the sight of swollen feet. She does not like lifting a body from a gurney onto a metal tray and sliding it into the wall. “When you move the patients that are alive, you get them a pillow, you make sure they are comfortable, you make them feel good,” she said. “You don’t do that for the dead bodies.” To stave off morgue gloom, she sometimes thinks of an e-mail message — a printout of which she keeps in the tiny bedroom she still shares with her brother, sister and mother — written to her boss by the wife of a patient about to be discharged. Rather than leave the patient in a wheelchair at the lobby’s revolving door, as is the normal procedure, she took him to the curb, because of his fragile state. She and another escort then lifted the man into a car, all the while being “exceedingly pleasant and helpful,” the patient’s wife wrote. Ms. Mateo’s supervisor remarked, in a note accompanying the forwarded message: “To bring joy not only improves our patients’ experience, but truly demonstrates what a quality person you are.”

New York Times Neediest Cases Fund
Bronx (NYC)
Hiring and Promotion


MSNBC Retools to Sharpen Its Focus on Hard News

Abstract: MSNBC’s shift to more hard news coverage during the day is starting to come into focus in advance of Brian Williams ’s return to the air on the cable news network next week. NBC News announced on Thursday that Kate Snow, an NBC News national correspondent, will anchor news coverage at MSNBC from 3 to 5 p.m. during the week and anchor the Sunday edition of “NBC Nightly News.” Chuck Todd, moderator of NBC’s “Meet the Press,” will host a new daily show at 5 p.m. called “MTP Daily” starting Sept. 28, which executives hope will become the “cable news show of record” for the 2016 campaign. The network also announced a series of behind-the-scenes leadership changes: Izzy Povich was named the executive producer of morning news coverage and Pat Burkey the executive producer of afternoon news coverage. The changes coincide with the return of Mr. Williams, the former anchor of “Nightly News,” who in February was suspended for six months without pay after he acknowledged misleading viewers about his experience in a helicopter attack in Iraq. Image Chuck Todd will have a show called "MTP Daily" on MSNBC. Credit William B. Plowman/NBC Mr. Williams will start on Tuesday in his new role as an anchor of breaking news and special reports at MSNBC, coinciding with Pope Francis’s arrival in Washington for his United States visit. MSNBC, which has experienced stark ratings declines, has shaken up its daytime lineup significantly in the last several months in an attempt to shift from its left-leaning opinion-based coverage to more hard news. “That is what MSNBC was created for: It was created to put NBC News in the 24/7 news business,” Andrew Lack, chairman of NBC News, said in an interview. To that end, the network canceled a series of shows, including programs hosted by Ronan Farrow and Joy Reid, as well as “The Cycle,” “Now With Alex Wagner” and “The Ed Show.” The Rev. Al Sharpton’s “PoliticsNation” show also was moved from its daily 6 p.m. time slot to a weekly broadcast on Sunday mornings. “Previously, the focus was not on covering the news as much as talking about what had already happened, and not focused on how to be reporting in the field what was breaking,” Mr. Lack added. The new developments signal the coming together of NBC News with MSNBC into one news operation that pushes its coverage across broadcast, cable and digital outlets. “This is about NBC News and MSNBC reintegrating in a way that makes clear that the power of NBC News is these two parts of the equation,” he said. “Separated, we are not as strong.”

MSNBC
Brian Williams
NBC News
Kate Snow
Chuck Todd
News media,journalism
TV


Waves of Young Syrian Men Bring Hope, and a Test, to Europe

Abstract: LESBOS, Greece — When the conflict in Syria began more than four years ago, Mustafa Alabi was a 17-year-old soccer whiz who had quit high school to sew clothes in his father’s workshop. But the war soon consumed his life. The shop burned, and rebels occupied his home in Aleppo. Sheltering with relatives, Mr. Alabi rarely went outside, fearing the army would draft him and send him to the front line. Then, like many before him, Mr. Alabi fled to Europe, where he landed last month: 22 years old, with a backpack, a ninth-grade education and little idea what to do next. “I have no specific hopes,” he said hesitantly, after struggling to buy bread here because he speaks only Arabic. “But God willing, after I register, if there is a way to play soccer. ...” He added, “Maybe I can sew?” Of the more than half a million migrants and refugees who have arrived in Europe this year, many are young men like Mr. Alabi. While some are educated or bring skills, many have lost critical formative years to violent conflicts that have interrupted educations and aborted careers. Some have borne arms, languished in prison or lived under radical Islamic groups like the Taliban or the Islamic State, experiences that have left them with physical and emotional scars. The mass displacement of so many young men poses great challenges to countries like Syria, homeland to more than half of those fleeing: The exodus deprives them of a demographic vital to reconstruction and economic growth. There are also great risks for Europe, which has long struggled to assimilate immigrants and could face the creation of a new underclass that taxes the public purse. Many also worry that pockets of radicalization could grow if the aspirations of the new arrivals end in isolation and poverty. “We know on the positive side that migration can boost economies and trade and lead to cultural exchange,” said Lado Gvilava, the head of the International Organization for Migration in Turkey, the departure point for most migrants. “But if it is mismanaged, it becomes a problem for both the receiving states and the countries left behind.” Aid groups say the chaotic nature of the human traffic has left them without a full picture of the current wave of people reaching Europe. The United Nations refugee agency says that just over half are Syrians, followed by smaller groups from Afghanistan, Eritrea, Iraq and elsewhere. Sixty-nine percent are men, 13 percent women and 18 percent children. Image Migrants arrived on the northern shore of the Greek island Lesbos last month after crossing by rubber raft from Turkey. Many asylum seekers have lost critical formative years to violent conflicts that have interrupted educations and aborted careers. Credit Tyler Hicks/The New York Times The largest single group appears to be young men, open to adventure but woefully ill informed about what they are getting into. Among the dozens of them interviewed recently in Turkey and Greece, only a few spoke any languages other than their native tongue, and most knew little about the countries they hoped to make their new homes. Some were surprised to learn that beer and pork are prominent in German cuisine. “Our only hope is in Europe,” said Mohammed Atiyya, 21, a Palestinian from Damascus who had been training as a metal worker when he was drafted into the Syrian Army. After nearing the end of what was supposed to be a two-year stint, he realized he was more likely to end up dead than decommissioned, so he deserted, later fleeing to Europe by raft. He is now in Hamburg, Germany. United Nations officials report meeting with many educated Syrians, including engineers, civil servants and small-business owners, who were solidly middle class before the war, but have since lost their homes and businesses. A minority arrive with clear plans. “My destination is France because I speak French,” said Fayez, 27, a Syrian dentist who said he had fled Aleppo because he risked his life going to work every day. After he was detained by rebels, he submitted an asylum application to France, but it was rejected, he said, so he now planned to sneak in, register as a refugee and continue his career. “We didn’t flee because we didn’t have the money, but because of insecurity,” he said in Greece, giving only his first name to protect relatives in Syria. The countries of Europe face a difficult task in integrating the migrants into their work force so they can contribute economically instead of adding to the social burden. Many of the new arrivals lack transferable skills and speak no European languages. Even professionals like doctors and engineers are unlikely to have their foreign credentials immediately recognized. To succeed, Europe must invest heavily in programs to teach migrants languages, pair skilled workers with jobs and help everyone else find training and work, said Demetrios G. Papademetriou, the president of the Migration Policy Institute Europe. The Scale of the Migrant Crisis, From 160 to Millions The latest E.U. proposal addresses just a fraction of a human crisis numbering in the millions. Countries like Germany and Sweden have organized economies and labor needs that could facilitate this, he said. But Austria has a small work force, and Spain, Italy and Greece have economic problems and high unemployment, leaving little room for migrants. “This could lead to a serious set of troubles for Europe, politically and economically, in the next few years,” Mr. Papademetriou said. Many worry that migrant populations that fail to integrate could become fertile ground for unrest or radicalization, especially if they find themselves under attack by right-wing elements. And a terrorist attack linked to even a tiny group of migrants could change the situation for all. At present, there is little to stop jihadists from the Islamic State or other radical groups from covertly slipping in with other migrants. The Greek authorities on Lesbos, where most migrants now arrive , have at times been so overwhelmed with newcomers that they suspended fingerprinting and photographing refugees to speed up registration, said Djamal Zamzoum of the United Nations refugee agency on the island. Others arrive with no documents or lie about their origins, making them hard to identify, he said. And fleeing war traumatizes many migrants, further complicating their assimilation. Mohammed Abdul-Haq, a Palestinian from Damascus, was working in a sweet shop when the Syrian government arrested him in a sweep aimed at dissidents, he said. During three and a half years in prison, he was hung by his wrists and beaten during interrogation. Released in August, he rushed to Turkey to head for Europe with his wife and their 10-year-old daughter, but he had thought little about what he would do once he got there. “I have no idea,” said Mr. Abdul-Haq, 38. “I just want to get there and be safe.” How the outflow affects Syria will probably depend on how and when the civil war ends. Many of those fleeing to Europe have recently left areas controlled by President Bashar al-Assad, saying that basic infrastructure was failing and that life had become dangerous. Some have deserted the army or are dodging service, deepening the personnel shortage of his army. Image Migrants sleeping in a park in Athens. The United Nations refugee agency says that 69 percent of the migrants reaching Europe are men. Credit Tyler Hicks/The New York Times Scholars of human migration say that the longer conflicts last and the farther away refugees settle, the less likely they are to go home. After the conflict in Bosnia, many refugees returned, if not necessarily to their home communities, which had been subjected to ethnic cleansing, said Laura Hammond, the head of the development studies department at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London. Many refugees returned to Chechnya after the conflict there because they had settled nearby in other parts of Russia, where they did not feel welcome. But even those who remain abroad often retain strong ties with their home countries, Ms. Hammond said, either by sending money to their relatives or by returning occasionally with capital and experience acquired abroad to invest and start businesses. “We should think of these men as part of the work force who will eventually help rebuild the country,” she said of the men fleeing Syria. “They don’t think of themselves as permanently gone.” But with the Syrian war in its fifth year and no end in sight, few of those heading for Europe plan to go back. Waiting in a park in Turkey before catching a raft to Greece, Mohammed, 41, said the battle for Aleppo had chased his family from their home and destroyed the body shop where he had worked. Now he was aiming to settle in Germany and bring his wife, their four children and his mother, he said, declining to give his last name because he feared for his family. He would work wherever he could, he said, and he was carrying a book to teach himself German. “The words are very heavy,” he said, unable to produce a phrase. He knew little more about his destination. “It is a beautiful country, and the people are nice,” he said. “That’s what I have heard.”

Middle East and Africa Migrant Crisis,European Migrant Crisis