Apple Confronts the Law of Large Numbers - Common Sense

Abstract: These days, it’s hard to find a superlative that adequately describes Apple . But maybe simplest is best: biggest. Measured by market capitalization, Apple is the world’s biggest public company. This week it solidified its lead over Exxon Mobil, the previous titleholder, as Apple’s shares hit a record high of $526.29, which gave it a market capitalization of just under $500 billion. Apple becomes only the 11th company to reach the top spot since 1926, according Howard Silverblatt, a senior index analyst for Standard & Poor’s. Apple’s first-quarter earnings of more than $13 billion accounted for more than 6 percent of all earnings for the S.& P. 500, according to Mr. Silverblatt. Sales for the quarter that ended Dec. 31 included an astonishing 37.04 million iPhones and 15.43 million iPads and totaled $46.33 billion, up 73 percent from the year before. Earnings more than doubled. Compare that with this week’s earning from the tech giants Hewlett-Packard (down 44 percent) and Dell (down 18 percent). Apple shares have surged 68 percent from their low point in June, and it’s not just Apple shareholders who have benefited. Apple is now such a large part of the S.& P. 500 and the Nasdaq 100 indexes that it has buoyed millions of investors who own shares of broad index funds and mutual funds . These investors account for an estimated half of the American population. This week the Nasdaq composite reached its highest level since 2000 and the S.& P. 500 hit levels not seen since before the financial crisis. Here is the rub: Apple is so big, it’s running up against the law of large numbers. Also known as the golden theorem, with a proof attributed to the 17th-century Swiss mathematician Jacob Bernoulli, the law states that a variable will revert to a mean over a large sample of results. In the case of the largest companies, it suggests that high earnings growth and a rapid rise in share price will slow as those companies grow ever larger. If Apple’s share price grew even 20 percent a year for the next decade, which is far below its current blistering pace, its $500 billion market capitalization would be more than $3 trillion by 2022. That is bigger than the 2011 gross domestic product of France or Brazil. Put another way, to increase its revenue by 20 percent, Apple has to generate additional sales of more than $9 billion in its next fourth quarter. A company with $1 billion in sales has to come up with just another $200 million. Robert Cihra, an analyst who covers Apple at Evercore Partners, told me this week that the law of large numbers as it applied to Apple had “been a concern for years now.” But, he said, “over the past couple of years, they have actually accelerated revenue growth. I don’t know that can continue indefinitely. If you extrapolate far enough out into the future, to sustain that growth Apple would have to sell an iPhone to every man, woman, child, animal and rock on the planet.” The law of large numbers may explain why, even at its recent lofty stock price, Apple looks like a bargain by most measures. The ratio of its share price to its earnings, a common measure of a company’s stock value, is less than 11 based on earnings projections for this year. That is well below the market’s average P/E ratio of about 13. Apple shares are even being bought by so-called value investors, who are usually confined to stodgier, low-growth but arguably undervalued companies. “The valuation on Apple stock right now is unjustifiably low,” Mr. Cihra said. “If it weren’t so big, the P/E multiple would be a lot higher. They almost doubled their earnings in calendar year 2011 and yet the stock is trading currently at a P/E multiple of less than 11. It’s trading way below the market average, even though it’s growing way above the market average. The multiple is being compressed simply because investors are asking how it can get bigger.” There may be sobering reasons for that. Other companies that have reached the top appear to have been felled by Bernoulli’s law. Cisco Systems held the top position and hit a market capitalization of $557 billion — larger than Apple’s — in March 2000, at the peak of the technology bubble. Its market capitalization today is about $100 billion, and shares are down nearly 80 percent since March 2000. In contrast with Apple, Cisco’s market value and sky-high 120 P/E ratio were inflated by investor euphoria rather than actual results. But other titleholders have met a similarly disappointing fate, although far less drastic. Exxon Mobil, recently displaced by Apple as the biggest company by market value, took over the top spot in 2006, seven years after the merger of Exxon and Mobil. At the end of that year, its market capitalization was $447 billion. Today it’s $35 billion lower. General Electric held the title for a number of years, most recently in 2005, when its market capitalization was $370 billion. Today, it’s just $205 billion. Microsoft was No. 1 in 2002 with a market capitalization of $276 billion. Today, it’s $262 billion. Of recent titleholders, the only one that has gained is I.B.M., whose market capitalization of $65 billion ranked first in 1990. Today, it’s $229 billion. Over the intervening 22 years, that is a compound rate of return of 11.2 percent including dividends — impressive but hardly the growth rate Apple shareholders have come to expect. Over the same period, an S.& P. 500 index fund returned 8.7 percent. Can Apple escape a similar fate? After never being a dominant force in personal computers, Apple surged to the top of the S.& P. 500 by transforming the cellphone into a multitasking smartphone, arguably the single most important technological advance so far in the 21st century. It rolled over vaunted rivals like Nokia, Motorola and Research in Motion with a combination of brilliant technology, dazzling design and shrewd marketing backed by the singular vision of its late founder, Steve Jobs. “Everyone truly needs it,” Mr. Cihra said of the smartphone. “It’s the most transformative piece of technology in our lifetimes.” Notwithstanding Apple’s huge size, Wall Street analysts are overwhelmingly positive on the company’s prospects. Of 57 analysts who cover the company, 52 have a strong buy or buy recommendation. Only one recommends selling: Edward Zabitsky, the chief executive and founder of ACI Research in Toronto, who specializes in telecommunications and has been Apple’s reigning Cassandra for years. He’s a favorite target of the Web’s “iPhone death watch,” which features negative (and thus far wrong) projections about Apple. “In all my years as an analyst, I’ve never gotten the kind of attention I’ve gotten from my Apple call,” Mr. Zabitsky told me this week. “I’ve gotten e-mails from everyone from radiologists to car repair people from all over North America telling me I’m a fool. We’re just a research operation, so we’re not trying to get any business from Apple. If we were, I doubt we’d get any.” “Apple has created a tremendous ecosystem where there was none,” Mr. Zabitsky acknowledges. But he says he thinks competition will erode Apple’s advantages as computing shifts to the cloud. “The question isn’t whether this will happen, but why and when. The company that understands this best is Microsoft. They’re betting the farm on Web apps. They’ll be competing with Apple on every product. Microsoft is big enough and motivated enough to make this happen.” But Mr. Zabitsky remains a solitary voice. “The reason Apple has been able to continue growing at a spectacular rate, even as its revenue base has surpassed $100 billion, is because it targets the world’s biggest markets,” Mr. Cihra said. He rates the stock a buy and projects revenue for calendar year 2012 at $165 billion. “The simple fact is that they still have a small share of huge markets — single-digit shares in both PCs and mobile phones.” Global mobile phone subscriptions neared six billion in 2011, with Apple’s share of the handset market at 5.6 percent, according to the market intelligence firm IDC. “There’s no mathematical reason Apple can’t keep growing at a premium rate for at least several more years,” Mr. Cihra said. “At the end of the day, there’s no good reason for market cap to be a ceiling.” Apple fans are eagerly awaiting Apple’s next big thing. A voice-activated television that upends TV the way Apple transformed music and cellphones? Maybe. And Mr. Cihra may well be right that Apple investors have at least several years of breathing room. But history suggests that excessive enthusiasm can often precede a fall. At Cisco’s peak, every Wall Street analyst covering the company rated it a strong buy or buy. “Cisco continues to execute very well and demonstrates that it is in a class by itself,” Seth Spalding, an analyst at Epoch Partners, wrote, joining a chorus of analysts praising Cisco’s latest earnings — in November 2000.

Apple Incorporated
Stocks and Bonds
Forecasts


B.U. or B.C.? Hockey Star Let Brother Pick

Abstract: CHESTNUT HILL, Mass. — The hockey rivalry between Boston College and Boston University has played out on many ice surfaces. Boston University has won more Beanpot championships. Boston College has had better luck lately in the N.C.A.A. tournament, winning four titles in the last 12 years. But it was in a home in southern New Jersey three years ago that the rivalry took a decided turn in Boston College’s direction. Johnny Gaudreau and his younger brother Matthew sat in their Carneys Point home and debated the merits of both universities. Johnny Gaudreau favored Boston College. Barely 5 feet 6 inches at that point, he liked that the Eagles sent small players like Brian Gionta and Nathan Gerbe to the N.H.L. He had been collecting B.C. apparel for years. His brother, 15 months younger, favored the Terriers. He had been collecting B.U. apparel for years. The brothers were determined to go to college together, and Johnny Gaudreau decided to give Matthew the final say. “They had narrowed it down to B.U. or B.C.,” said Jane Gaudreau, their mother. “John said: ‘I’ll let Matty pick. I’ll go with him.’ I know Matthew was leaning towards B.U., but he chose B.C.” She added, “That’s how John ended up there, because Matthew picked it for him.” Now Johnny Gaudreau, a left wing, is making his younger brother look prescient. Finishing his junior year, he is the overwhelming favorite for the Hobey Baker Award, given to college hockey’s top player. Boston College spent much of the season ranked No. 1 and enters this week’s N.C.A.A. tournament as one of the favorites, despite having lost to Notre Dame in the Hockey East quarterfinals. Notre Dame is the only team the Eagles have lost to since Nov. 29. Gaudreau, still diminutive at 5-8 and 159 pounds, is a big reason for the team’s success. He led Division I with 30 goals and failed to produce a point in only two games: Oct. 27 against Minnesota and March 16 against Notre Dame. He matched a Hockey East scoring streak set 21 years ago by Maine’s Paul Kariya with a point in 31 consecutive games, accumulating 61 points during the streak. He was the conference’s player of the month three times and became only the third player to win consecutive Hockey East player of the year awards. “Believe me, I never saw any of this coming,” Gaudreau said this month. “I never expected to have the kind of season I’m having.” He may be an army of one in that line of thinking. The former Northeastern assistant Albie O’Connell, who recruited Gaudreau, said: “He’s the best player in college hockey. He is steps ahead of everyone.” Jim Montgomery, the Denver coach, who had Gaudreau on his United States Hockey League team in Dubuque, Iowa, compared Gaudreau to the Detroit Red Wings’ Pavel Datsyuk and the Chicago Blackhawks’ Patrick Kane. “His creativity is off the charts,” Montgomery said. “He does things you don’t see anyone else doing, like Datsyuk. His footwork and handwork are extraordinary, and his puck protection is like Patrick Kane’s.” As it happens, Gaudreau and Boston College will play Montgomery’s Denver team in the first round of the N.C.A.A. tournament Saturday. The Eagles won the national championship Gaudreau’s freshman year, when he was second on the team in points behind Chris Kreider, now with the Rangers. Last season, Gaudreau led the team in scoring with 21 goals and 30 assists, was a finalist for the Hobey Baker, and scored seven goals to lead the United States to a gold medal at the world junior championships. “I’m just glad we have him, because he could have gone anywhere,” Boston College Coach Jerry York said. Well before the Gaudreau brothers made their college decision, Johnny Gaudreau committed to Northeastern as a 15-year-old. He then missed two straight showcase tournaments for the top college prospects because he did not earn a spot on the southern New Jersey district team that traveled to those events. He said he wondered at that point if he would play college hockey at all. He was convinced he was too small to play at a high level in college. “Most of the top players are committing to colleges and playing in this tournament, and I couldn’t even make my district team,” he said. “I was too small. I didn’t even want to try out again when I was 18. But the coaches at Northeastern said I should.” At that 2010 tournament, he had his coming-out party. York remembered seeing a pint-size whirling dervish and wondering: “Where did he come from? I had never seen him before.” U.S. Hockey Report rated Gaudreau the No. 1 forward in the tournament, adding, “Gaudreau was the show here.” By that time, Gaudreau had made the decision to spend his senior year of high school playing for Dubuque of the U.S.H.L. He was named the league’s rookie of the year, and expected to head off to Northeastern. But in June 2011, Northeastern Coach Greg Cronin left to join the Toronto Maple Leafs. His assistant, O’Connell, left to take a similar position at Harvard. Gaudreau asked Northeastern to release him from his letter of intent, and the university complied. In early August 2011, after a whirlwind recruiting visit to five New England universities, Gaudreau chose Boston College. Matthew Gaudreau joined him this year and appeared in six games as a freshman. In the summer of 2011, the Calgary Flames drafted Johnny Gaudreau in the fourth round, with the 104th overall pick. He was stunned by the news. He had decided to skate with some friends at a local rink rather than watch the draft, convinced he would be drafted much later, if at all. “I was ranked 204,” he said. “I didn’t want to watch the draft and then not get drafted.” Gaudreau is now wrestling with what to do at the end of this season. He enjoys college life and playing with his brother, but has little left to accomplish at the collegiate level, especially if Boston College wins another national championship. The Flames are telling Gaudreau to focus on the coming tournaments and then make the decision. Gaudreau’s mother would like to see her son finish college and graduate, and he said his mother usually prevailed in these kinds of things. “I don’t think he gets it that when you go out there, it’s not going to be all fun anymore,” Jane Gaudreau said. “I don’t think he gets he may be taking the spot of someone who has a wife and three kids.” She added: “As his mom, I’d like to see him take one more year to get a little bigger, a little stronger, and to enjoy his senior year. He’s never had a homecoming. He’s never had a prom. He missed his high school graduation. He said he’d have a graduation picture for me. “Have your senior year. You will never get that back.” If Matthew Gaudreau gets to decide again, he and his brother will return to Boston College. And if Jane Gaudreau was choosing, her sons would be Eagles for another year. But neither one will probably get that chance. This time, Johnny Gaudreau is going to make the call himself.

Boston College
Johnny Gaudreau
Ice hockey
NCAA Men's Ice Hockey
BU


Estimates of Oil Flow Jump Higher

Abstract: A government panel on Tuesday released yet another estimate of the amount of oil flowing from BP ’s damaged well, declaring that as much as 60,000 barrels a day could be spewing into the Gulf of Mexico. That is roughly 2.5 million gallons of oil a day, and it means an amount equal to the Exxon Valdez spill could be gushing from the well about every four days. The flow was already categorized as the largest offshore oil spill in the nation’s history, but the new figures sharply increase previous estimates. Scientists on Tuesday estimated that the flow rate ranged from 35,000 to 60,000 barrels a day — up from the rate they issued only last week, of 25,000 to 30,000 barrels a day. It continues a pattern in which every new estimate of the flow rate has been dramatically higher than the one before. With BP capturing roughly 15,000 barrels a day, the new estimate suggests that as much as 45,000 barrels a day is escaping into the gulf. The new estimate is far above the figure of 5,000 barrels a day that the government and BP clung to for weeks after the spill started, following the April 20 explosion of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig. That estimate was made by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration using methods not recommended for large oil spills, and it came under attack from professors and advocacy groups who said the spill had to be larger. Time has proven those critics right. The latest estimate reflects a possible increase in the flow rate that occurred after BP cut an underwater pipe called a riser on June 3 to install a new device to capture part of the oil. It is based on new information, including high-resolution video made after the riser cut, and on pressure readings taken by a device that was inserted this week into the equipment at the sea floor. Energy Secretary Steven Chu, a Nobel Prize -winning scientist, was personally involved in using those pressure readings to help make the latest calculation. “This estimate brings together several scientific methodologies and the latest information from the sea floor, and represents a significant step forward in our effort to put a number on the oil that is escaping from BP’s well,” Secretary Chu said in a statement. “As we continue to collect additional data and refine these estimates, it is important to realize that the numbers can change.” The numbers came on a day when BP’s ill-fated relief efforts to stop the damaged well hit yet another snag, underscoring once again the fragility of the containment effort: lightning struck the vessel that had been collecting the oil from the well, suspending operations for nearly five hours from 9:30 a.m. Central time until 2:15 p.m. BP said in a statement that the fire, which started after lightning struck the derrick — the familiar-looking tower used to lift the piping — was quickly extinguished, and there were no injuries. But as a precaution, the containment operation was shut down for about five hours. The containment cap is still the most successful method BP has had in collecting some of the oil that has been leaking from the undersea well, and it has only been partly effective. A series of attempts by BP to cap or plug the well before June 3 failed. The new calculation of the flow of oil, if it holds up, suggests that BP’s latest plans for capturing oil will be adequate, if only barely. BP had only able to collect about 15,000 barrels a day at its peak with the containment cap, but the company has outlined plans to deploy new equipment so that it can capture a minimum of 40,000 barrels a day by the end of June, and a minimum of 60,000 barrels a day by mid-July. If the new range of flow estimates proves correct, and if BP is ultimately found guilty of gross negligence in actions it took that led to the Deepwater Horizon disaster, that would mean the company could be assessed fines of up to $258 million a day. Those fines could come on top of payments for cleanup costs and economic damage to Gulf Coast businesses. Fearful that the spill could ultimately cost BP tens of billions of dollars, investors have driven the company’s market valuation down by 48 percent since the spill began, erasing $91 billion of shareholder value. BP shares rose more than 2 percent during regular trading on Tuesday, but then gave up all that gain and more in after-hours trading, following release of the new flow estimates. In a separate development, BP started to make good Tuesday on a three-week-old promise, declaring that it would release $25 million to a group of universities to pay for research into the effects of the oil spill. The is the first installment of $500 million that the company has pledged for a research effort lasting a decade. Louisiana State University will get $5 million of the initial money. An additional $10 million will go to the Florida Institute of Oceanography, a consortium of 20 institutions with marine science interests in that state, including the 11 state universities. And a final $10 million will go to the Northern Gulf Initiative, a consortium led by Mississippi State University that includes four other institutions scattered across the Gulf Coast states. In signing up for the BP money, the institutions were careful to negotiate academic freedom for themselves in deciding what lines of research to pursue. “Clearly, our scientists need to be able to work independently,” said Vickie Chachere, a spokeswoman for the University of South Florida in St. Petersburg, which heads the Florida consortium. “BP is going to be completely hands-off on this. There will be no strings attached.” BP pledged that more money would be coming beyond the $25 million. It appointed an expert panel that will make recommendations on which institutions will receive those funds, with Rita Colwell, one of the most respected names in American science, as chairwoman. Ms. Colwell, an environmental microbiologist who holds a degree in oceanography, formerly headed the National Science Foundation and is now a distinguished professor at the Johns Hopkins University. “It is vitally important that research start immediately into the oil and dispersant’s impact, and that the findings are shared fully and openly,” BP’s chief executive, Tony Hayward, said in a statement announcing the research money. “We support the independence of these institutions and projects, and hope that the funding will have a significant positive effect on scientists’ understanding of the impact of the spill.”

Gulf of Mexico
Lightning
Oil (Petroleum) and Gasoline
Accidents and Safety
Offshore Drilling and Exploration
BP Plc


Seeking Upsets, Dolgopolov Advances but Raonic Is Out

Abstract: MELBOURNE, Australia — There is not much room at the top in a men’s tennis age when two of the greatest ever — Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal — are still winning and eager, and their long-term pursuers — Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic — have been improving for years in the hope of making history of their own. But there is still enough room for a supertalented surprise or two, and on Monday, with the Australian Open getting down to serious business, the last two unseeded men in contention took their chances as Alexandr Dolgopolov faced Robin Soderling at Rod Laver Arena and the qualifier Milos Raonic faced David Ferrer at Hisense Arena. Only Dolgopolov — a ponytailed Ukrainian from a tennis family — managed to finish off the upset and reach the quarterfinals, taking out the fourth-seeded Soderling in five sets. But Raonic, a 20-year-old Canadian qualifier with a boyish face and a manly serve, was generating the slightly greater sense of expectation among the game’s cognoscenti, even after making nearly 70 unforced errors in a four-set defeat to Ferrer. “I think he’s a huge talent,” said Darren Cahill, a coach and television commentator. “Everything about him just is impressive: the way he holds himself, the way he fights, the way he moves for a big guy, the way he serves. He’s got a lot of upside, a lot of improvement in his game. I think he’s slightly ahead of the crop with all those young kids coming through.” The Australian Open, as the first Grand Slam event of the year, has made a habit of introducing fresh talent to a wider stage, most recently Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who knocked off Nadal on his way to the final here in 2008. Tsonga was marked for greatness after that but has not quite scaled such heights, suffering from injuries, inconsistency and the limitations of his two-handed backhand. So one should perhaps remain skeptical after hearing a flurry of compliments and grand predictions. In the futures market that sports has become, there is often more interest in identifying the next big thing than in appreciating the current big thing. Tennis, a sport of repetitive patterns in which the hierarchy tends to shift gradually, is particularly susceptible to such hype. Anything that could shake up the pecking order tends to generate intense interest. But to get back to the present and mostly the present, Dolgopolov and Raonic were eye-openers on Monday, just as the 18-year-old Australian Bernard Tomic was when he won two rounds and then made Nadal sweat for three sets in the third round. Dolgopolov was born to play sports, born to play tennis. His mother, Elena, a former gymnast for the Soviet Union, won medals at the European championships. His father, Oleksandr, coached Ukraine’s greatest player, Andrei Medvedev, a charismatic yet enigmatic player with terrific ground strokes who soared into the top five and nearly spoiled Andre Agassi’s chances of winning the 1999 French Open final. Jim Courier, the former American champion doing commentary for Australian television, interviewed Dolgopolov after the match and told him he remembered him hitting balls at age 3 from the service line with his father. “You never missed, it was really annoying,” Courier said. “We sat there watching you, thinking, He’ll be a great player someday if he doesn’t fall out of love with the sport.” Nineteen years later, he has looked plenty eager and persistent beating Tsonga in five sets in the third round and then shrugging off the loss of the first set in just 21 minutes against Soderling and hitting and hustling his way to a 1-6, 6-3, 6-1, 4-6, 6-2 victory Monday. “He’s a great counterpuncher,” said Soderling, who started the season with eight straight victories. “He has a good chance to do really well, I think.” The next round should be even trickier, however, given that the 46th-ranked Dolgopolov will face the best counterpuncher in the game: the fifth-seeded Murray, who overwhelmed Jürgen Melzer, 6-3, 6-1, 6-1, on Monday. Soderling, still trying to consolidate his spot among the elite, was edgier than usual Monday, but that was in part because Dolgopolov was fleet, bold and compact enough to counter Soderling’s more powerful shots. There is a bit of Nikolay Davydenko in Dolgopolov, although his whipping forehand bears more resemblance on certain shots to a mirror image of Nadal. He is also a shape shifter. Andy Roddick, who beat him in straight sets in Brisbane this year, was shaking his head during the match as Dolgopolov went for baseline winners on seemingly every shot. “He was hitting it as hard as he can — no, really, hard as he can,” said Larry Stefanki, Roddick’s coach. “I’ve never seen anything like it.” But this is the same 22-year-old capable of leaving Nadal practically frozen in the clay with a drop shot last year and the same player who leavened his go-for-broke tennis on Monday with rhythm shifts and plenty of defensive slice off both wings. Raonic, who should break into the top 100 next Monday, kept it simpler. Born in what is now Montenegro, he moved with his family to Canada as a small boy. At 6 feet 5 inches and nearly 200 pounds, he sees eye to eye with the new generation of taller players, but unlike most of them, he is committed to the attack. He hit the fastest serve of the tournament in earlier rounds — 143 miles per hour — and has a fluid, technically sound motion, but he has more to fear than that, including a compact two-handed backhand, a big if slightly stiff forehand and a desire to push forward even off shots taken near the baseline. Such tactics represented a monumental challenge against Ferrer, the high-energy Spanish veteran whose passing shots and returns are among the game’s best. But Raonic kept coming, and it required plenty of fast-twitch resourcefulness from Ferrer to fight him off. If Cahill is right, much more effort will be required to fight him off in the seasons ahead.


U.S. General Says Raiding Syria Is Key to Halting ISIS

Abstract: WASHINGTON — The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria cannot be defeated unless the United States or its partners take on the Sunni militants in Syria, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said Thursday. “This is an organization that has an apocalyptic end-of-days strategic vision that will eventually have to be defeated,” said the chairman, Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, in his most expansive public remarks on the crisis since American airstrikes began in Iraq. “Can they be defeated without addressing that part of the organization that resides in Syria? The answer is no.” But General Dempsey and Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, who both spoke at a Pentagon news conference, gave no indication that President Obama was about to approve airstrikes in Syria. General Dempsey also was circumspect in describing the sort of broad effort that would be required to roll back ISIS in Syria and Iraq. “It requires a variety of instruments, only one small part of which is airstrikes,” he said. “I’m not predicting those will occur in Syria, at least not by the United States of America. But it requires the application of all of the tools of national power — diplomatic, economic, information, military.” Video Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said that the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria is more than just a terrorist group. Credit Credit Yuri Gripas/Reuters Even so, General Dempsey’s comments were notable because he is the president’s top military adviser and had been among the most outspoken in describing the risks of ordering airstrikes in Syria when the civil war there began. In the current battle with ISIS inside Iraq, Mr. Obama’s military strategy has been aimed at containing the militant organization rather than defeating it, according to Defense Department officials and military experts. Pressed on whether the United States would conduct airstrikes on ISIS targets in Syria, Mr. Hagel said that “we’re looking at all options.” Any use of air power involves risk, including the possibility that innocent civilians may be hurt or killed, or that a piloted aircraft might be shot down. Airstrikes in Syria would also draw the White House more deeply into a conflict from which it has sought to maintain some distance. But there is also risk in not acting, because it is very difficult to defeat a militant group that is allowed to maintain a sanctuary. In planning its campaign against ISIS, American military officers have been contending with a highly mobile force that can move across the Iraq-Syria border with impunity. To the consternation of American officials, ISIS has been using captured American equipment, including Humvees and at least one heavily armored troop transport vehicle. American intelligence officials have reported that the group has seized 20 Russian T-55 tanks in Syria, armor that ISIS could try to employ in western Iraq. According to one American intelligence estimate, ISIS could not be easily defeated by killing its top leadership. Given its decentralized command and control, experienced militants could easily replenish its upper ranks. Image Kurdish soldiers stood guard at the Mosul Dam after recapturing it from Sunni militants. Credit Youssef Boudlal/Reuters “If there is anything ISIL has learned from its previous iterations as Al Qaeda in Iraq, it is that they need succession plans because losing leaders to counterterrorism operations is to be expected,” said one intelligence official, using an alternative name for the group. “Their command and control is quite flexible as a result.” American officials caution that intelligence experts are still assessing ISIS’s current strength and that pinning down the precise number of its fighters is difficult, in part because it is not easy to identify who is a core member of the group and who might be sympathizers fighting alongside them. Estimates of the number of fighters that might be affiliated with ISIS vary from more than 10,000 to as many as 17,000. That includes an initial vanguard of about 3,000 who swept into Mosul from Syria in early June and ISIS reinforcements from Syria since that time, as well as thousands of new foreign recruits and thousands of Iraqi Sunnis, like Baathists, who at least for now are allied with ISIS. So far, the military strategy that the Obama administration has employed to confront ISIS has been limited in scope. Since Aug. 8, the United States has carried out 90 airstrikes to halt the militant group’s advance to Erbil, to help Kurdish and Iraqi government forces retake the Mosul Dam and to protect Yazidi civilians trying to escape from Mount Sinjar. While American air power appears to have been relatively successful in those limited missions, some military officials say that the only way to deal a major setback to such a mobile adversary is to attack ISIS fighters throughout the battlefield. John R. Allen, the retired Marine Corps general who led American and allied forces in Afghanistan, said the United States needed to build up the capacity of indigenous forces in the region to take on ISIS, but he stressed that there was also an important role for American air power. Video Background on ISIS, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Credit Credit Reuters “For now, attacking ISIS command and control sites, support areas and critical pathways can do a great deal to begin the process of dismantling the organization,” he said. Those that have been on the receiving end of ISIS’s attacks believe more action is needed. “ISIS needs to be fought in all areas, in both Iraq and Syria,” said Atheel al-Nujaifi, the governor of Iraq’s Nineveh Province, which is now mostly held by ISIS. “The problem is finding a partner on the ground that can work with them because the jets can’t finish the battle from the sky.” The situation also is complicated by Iran’s presence in Syria. Iran has been sending arms and Quds Force personnel to support the government of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria. Iran also arranged for Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group it supports, to join the fighting in Syria on the side of the Assad government. Much of eastern Syria is now under the control of ISIS, which announced that it has established a caliphate that extends from its base in Syria into northern and western Iraq. Mr. Obama has said he will not accept the establishment of an ISIS state but had not publicly articulated a detailed strategy to stop the group. Those within Syria who have fought ISIS also have expressed hopes for intervention. When ISIS fighters tried to take land from the Shueitat tribe in eastern Syria, its men took up arms and fought back — a show of defiance that the extremist group did not forget. This month, ISIS retaliated, capturing and killing hundreds of tribe members, some of them slaughtered with knives in the street. Wounded and chased from his village, one survivor reached by phone on Thursday said he could not understand why the United States was bombing ISIS in Iraq but not in Syria, where the group has for more than a year built its base and amassed weapons and fighters. Iraqi Army Retakes Government Complex in Central Ramadi Efforts to stem the rise of the Islamic State. “I wish we could ask the Americans to hit their bases wherever they exist,” said the man, who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution. When the United States began airstrikes in Iraq this month, senior Obama administration officials went out of their way to underscore the limited nature of the action. “This was not an authorization of a broad-based counterterrorism campaign,” a senior Obama administration official told reporters at the time . But the beheading of an American journalist and the possibility that more American citizens being held by the group might be slain has prompted outrage at the highest levels of the United States government. Mr. Obama has harshly condemned the slaying, and on Wednesday Secretary of State John Kerry issued a statement declaring that the group should be confronted “wherever it tries to spread its despicable hatred” and “must be destroyed.” Such strong statements have widened the gap between the harsh denunciations of ISIS and the strategy that the White House has so far employed to confront the group. Video A look at Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, a militant group that now rivals Al Qaeda in power and popularity. Credit Credit Agence France-Presse — Getty Images And Mr. Hagel said Thursday that while American airstrikes had made a difference thus far in slowing the ISIS advance in Iraq, he expected that the militants would regroup and stage another offensive. The Obama administration has ruled out sending ground troops into combat in Iraq. Administration officials have also continued to insist that much of the strategy is political: the establishment of a more diverse Iraqi government that would give a prominent role to Sunnis in the hope that it would make Sunni communities less hospitable hosts for ISIS militants. But other options are being considered, including increasing the scope and frequency of airstrikes. “You can hit ISIS on one side of a border that essentially no longer exists, and it will scurry across, as it may have already,” said Brian Katulis, a national security expert with the Center for American Progress, a Washington research organization with close ties to the White House. As proved during the initial American military mission to rout Al Qaeda and the Taliban from Afghanistan after the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, American airstrikes would be more effective if small teams of Special Operations forces were deployed to identify ISIS targets and call in attacks. Deploying such teams is believed to be one option the Pentagon is considering. Another step that some experts say will be needed to challenge the militant groups is a stepped-up program to train, advise and equip the moderate opposition in Syria as well as Kurdish and government forces in Iraq. During his news conference, Mr. Hagel insisted that the United States was pursuing a long-term strategy against ISIS because it clearly posed “a long-term threat,” and at one point invoked the Sept. 11 attacks. But both Pentagon leaders reflected the prevailing view within the Obama administration — that the United States should not move aggressively to counter ISIS without participation from allies in the region.

Syria
Iraq
Chuck Hagel
ISIS,ISIL,Islamic State
Martin E Dempsey
US Military
United States Central Command
Barack Obama


Sharapova Victorious in Porsche Grand Prix

Abstract: Maria Sharapova won her third straight Porsche Grand Prix title on Sunday by coming from behind to defeat Ana Ivanovic, 3-6, 6-4, 6-1, in Stuttgart, Germany. Sharapova won her first tournament of the year and clinched the 30th title of her career. She is undefeated in her last 13 matches on the indoor clay in Stuttgart. ■ Kei Nishikori of Japan beat Colombia’s Santiago Giraldo, 6-2, 6-2, to win the Barcelona Open in Spain for his first career title on clay. (AP)

Maria Sharapova
Ana Ivanovic
Kei Nishikori
Santiago Giraldo
Tennis


Surge in Independent Spending Is Reshaping City’s Elections

Abstract: Call it an offer, a threat, a promise: in late winter, an aide to the speaker of the City Council was asked to meet on the street with a political consultant for a group that wanted a bill passed. Standing down the block from City Hall, in front of J&R Music on Park Row, the consultant, Scott Levenson, explained that the group he was representing was prepared to spend a lot of money attacking the speaker, Christine C. Quinn, unless she supported legislation that would allow a pilot program of electric cars in Central Park. The council aide, Jamie McShane, brought the word back to his bosses. Ms. Quinn did not support the legislation. A coalition of groups called New York City Is Not For Sale introduced advertisements attacking Ms. Quinn and her politics, ultimately spending $879,000. A front-runner in early polls, she finished third in the Democratic mayoral primary on Tuesday. Mr. Levenson said he delivered the message a second time, to Ms. Quinn’s deputy chief of staff, Ramon Martinez. One of the groups he represented, New Yorkers for Clean, Livable and Safe Streets, part of the larger coalition, was opposed to the horse carriage trade in Central Park and wanted a law allowing a pilot program of electric cars. Image David H. Koch contributed to an independent group supporting Joseph J. Lhota. Credit Gretchen Ertl for The New York Times Had she gone along with them, Mr. Levenson said, Ms. Quinn could have avoided some or all of the advertising barrage that may have shaped her image for voters starting to pay attention to the campaign. “I was trying to get support for my founders’ main issue, which was the horse carriage issue,” Mr. Levenson said. “Some of our founders would not have continued on the independent expenditure had she signed onto that.” This was one spout among geysers of “independent” campaign money that are reshaping New York City’s political dialogue and power. The real estate industry spent $6 million to $7 million on City Council races in the primary election, about $275,000 per race on average. This swamped the $160,000 the candidates themselves could spend on their campaigns if they participated in the public financing program. About 80 percent of the candidates backed by the real estate money were successful. Between the Council, mayoral and other citywide races, outside groups — like the horse carriage advocates, the real estate interests, and unions of public and private employees — spent $12.7 million, said Matt Sollars, a spokesman for the city’s Campaign Finance Board. While such independent expenditures have been allowed in the past, they never approached those levels, though precise comparisons are not possible because disclosure requirements were lax until this year. “It’s pretty clear that this is unprecedented,” Mr. Sollars said. “We have never seen groups spending like that.” What set off the spending, Mr. Sollars said, was the Supreme Court’s decision in Citizens United, which lifted most restrictions on independent spending in political campaigns. It was a moot point in New York during the last three mayoral elections because Michael R. Bloomberg, a billionaire, did not participate in public financing and spent hundreds of millions of his own money in support of his successful campaigns. Image Harold Ickes is an adviser to Bill de Blasio. This time, none of the leading candidates have anything like Mr. Bloomberg’s wealth, but independent spending is climbing steeply. David H. Koch and his wife, Julia Koch, each contributed $145,000 to an independent group supporting Joseph J. Lhota, the Republican candidate. The group includes others who worked with Mr. Lhota under Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, or on his presidential campaign. “Clearly, there is a growing and high level of interest in our effort, but we’ll see if it translates into something more than interest,” said Michael McKeon, president of the independent group supporting Mr. Lhota. Harold Ickes, an adviser to Bill de Blasio, a leading Democratic candidate, said he got a call from a labor leader on Thursday morning “sniffing around” to find out if independent groups had been established for Mr. de Blasio. He got the most votes in the Democratic primary, though it is not known if he has enough to avoid a runoff. Given the animal-rights interests of the group that opposed Ms. Quinn in the primary race, it is likely to support Mr. de Blasio if he makes it to the general election, as he promised to end the horse carriage trade during his first week in office. Mr. Lhota recently said that if he were still in his old job as chairman of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, he would not have stopped subway traffic for the removal of kittens on the track. The Daily News reported this on the front page under the headline “Die Kitty Die.” “People have looked at our success in the primary and want to be part of it,” Mr. Levenson said.

City council
Campaign finance
Mayoral races
Campaign advertising
NYC


French Parliament Votes to Extend State of Emergency

Abstract: PARIS — The French Parliament on Thursday approved a new two-month extension of the state of emergency that was initially declared in the aftermath of the Nov. 13 attacks in and around Paris. The extension will cover two major sporting events taking place this summer in France — the Euro 2016 soccer tournament and the Tour de France cycling race. The events have prompted fear of additional terrorist attacks in a country still on high alert. Forty-six lawmakers in the National Assembly, the lower house of Parliament, voted in favor of the new extension, with 20 against it. The Senate, the upper house, already approved the extension on May 10. Image President François Hollande declared a state of emergency in France on Nov. 14, 2015. Credit Gonzalo Fuentes/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images Patrick Calvar, the director of France’s domestic intelligence agency, told a parliamentary committee on that same day that the Islamic State was “planning new attacks” and that the country could be assaulted by multiple bombings in crowded areas to create panic. France is “clearly the most threatened country,” Mr. Calvar said, pointing to threats from the Islamic State and Al Qaeda. The French authorities are particularly worried about security at the Euro 2016 soccer tournament , which runs from June 10 to July 10, and at the Tour de France , from July 2 to July 24. Both are expected to draw large crowds, especially in cities hosting the soccer tournament, which will provide so-called fan zones where hundreds of spectators can gather to watch matches on large screens. Uncovering the Links Between the Brussels and Paris Attackers At least two of the attackers are believed to have had roles in both plots. Speaking earlier on Thursday on RTL radio, Prime Minister Manuel Valls said that the tournament would not be canceled, despite the security concerns, and that the fan zones would be adequately protected. The state of emergency had already been extended twice, for three-month periods, and was scheduled to end on May 26. The new extension is expected to be the last. President François Hollande declared the state of emergency on Nov. 14, 2015, a day after coordinated teams of Islamic State militants killed 130 people and wounded more than 400 at a concert hall and in cafes and restaurants in central Paris, and outside a soccer stadium in St.-Denis, north of the capital. A parliamentary report published on Tuesday noted that while the state of emergency had proved “very useful” in the immediate aftermath of the attacks, several of its measures “no longer present the same interest today.” The state of emergency had enabled the authorities to put people under house arrest and to carry out police raids without the prior authorization of a judge. Sixty-nine people are currently under house arrest, the report said, and more than 3,500 raids have been carried out since Nov. 14. But the vast majority of those raids were carried out in the first three months of the state of emergency, the report said. The government, acknowledging a diminished need for those kinds of raids, left that option out of the new extension. Instead, it will focus on other law-enforcement powers granted by the state of emergency to local authorities. Those include banning demonstrations and forbidding the access and movement of people and vehicles in specific areas at specific times. “The terrorist threat remains at a high level,” Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve told lawmakers before the vote on Thursday. “France, like the European Union, represents a target.”

France
Soccer
Tour de France
Paris Attacks
Euro 2016 UEFA European Championship
Terrorism
Legislature
Biking


In Subways, Suddenly, 2 Glimpses of History

Abstract: One is a century-old transit hub permitted to age gracefully beneath Lower Manhattan, its chandeliers, terra-cotta tiles and ceiling of Guastavino vaults carefully preserved. The other is the subway system’s forgotten shame, cast in blue spray paint and corrugated metal, then suspended in disrepair since the grime-and-graffiti era of the 1970s, when it served a neighborhood in Brooklyn that bears little resemblance to today’s. There are more than a few stations hidden in the city’s underground thickets, but none offer more contrasting images of New York’s past than these two: Old City Hall Station, the flagship of the Interborough Rapid Transit Company, and the lower level at Bergen Street, last seen widely as the backdrop of a horror film. Now, for equally divergent reasons involving train turnarounds and the vicissitudes of repair, both can be glimpsed for those who know where to look. The first case is deliberate: The Metropolitan Transportation Authority has in recent years begun allowing riders to stay on the No. 6 train as it turns around at the southern end of its run. The second is not. In the last several months, planned and unplanned work on the Culver Line in Brooklyn has often rerouted F trains to the old express tracks that pass below Cobble Hill. Among history-minded riders, the stations have for decades stood as emblems of the transit system’s dueling legacies. They are the impossible standard and the indelible blight — the reason today’s wistful older riders can be sorted into two camps: those for whom hindsight has softened the edges of the subway’s darkest days, and the dwindling few with memories long enough to include its most regal beginnings. The stations are particularly striking because they can be glimpsed almost accidentally, by a straggler who overslept on the Lexington Avenue line, waking to discover a turn-of-the-century gem on the loop track at Brooklyn Bridge-City Hall, or by a commuter aboard a surprise express to Manhattan. For such F train riders, there is the dash past the outdoor stations at Fourth Avenue and Smith-Ninth Street, then the telltale dip at Carroll Street, as the platform recedes overhead. And then it appears, faintly at first, followed by two surges of light: the moldering columns, a staircase leading to a dim concourse, and walls of graffiti — some fresh, some apparently decades old. The station was closed to passengers in 1976. “It’s sort of a window back into that time when the subway system was different, and not nearly as safe,” said Benjamin Kabak, the publisher of the website Second Ave. Sagas , who recently passed the old station during a spell of weekend work on the F. “It looked like the train could stop and let people on right now.” Image The Old City Hall Station, which closed in the 1940s, is visible when the downtown No. 6 train turns around after its last stop at Brooklyn Bridge-City Hall. Credit Bryan Thomas for The New York Times But few chapters from the system’s past so rankle the transportation authority, which declined to discuss the station in detail. For one, the authority is mindful of persistent calls to restore F express service in Brooklyn, fearing that any mention of the station might convince riders that it could be renovated adequately. Officials also noted security concerns and a desire to “discourage urban explorers” from venturing underground. At City Hall, though, a sense of adventure is celebrated. On the authority’s website, members of the New York Transit Museum are encouraged to buy $40 tickets for a tour of the station, referred to by its nickname, “the Jewel in the Crown.” There are two sessions in December. For the 100th anniversary of the subway system in 2004, the station, which was closed in 1945 because its platforms could not accommodate 10-car trains, was reopened for a ceremony with Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg. Workers dressed in turn-of-the-century outfits, as Mr. Bloomberg helped maneuver a vintage four-car train. Less elaborate outings have also been condoned. Though conductors were in the past known to expel passengers at the end of the No. 6 line, announcements on many trains have been adjusted to reflect a change. “The next stop on this train will be Brooklyn Bridge-City Hall, on the uptown platform,” the message now says, in a nod to riders who might remain on board. The cost for them, of course, is that of a single ride. Even the pace of the train is cooperative, at least compared with the express-powered blur past Bergen Street. A recent, unhurried rumble through the loop revealed the skylights, the faience signs, the arched entryway illuminated by six temporary bulbs. “It’s a salute to an era when subways were meant to enhance the quality of life in the city,” said Gene Russianoff, a longtime transit advocate for the Straphangers Campaign. “I guess they do now, but not with beautiful stations.” On a recent afternoon, Bersio Pupo, 46, and Yara Noronha, 31, visiting from Brazil, said they had come to the station after seeing images of it in a book of photographs. It reminded them of Estação da Luz in São Paulo . But it is possible that today’s Bergen Street guests have the stronger grasp of the system’s past. One veteran graffiti writer, who requested anonymity because he is not allowed to traverse the tunnels, said he had visited the lower level three times in recent years to take in the art and add his own. “The people who end up there are usually people who know their history,” he said. The Brooklyn station received perhaps its widest exposure in 1990, as the setting of a scene in “Jacob’s Ladder,” starring Tim Robbins as a troubled Vietnam War veteran. That is thought to be perhaps the last time the station was opened for anyone besides transit personnel. Adrian Lyne, the film’s director, said in a phone interview that the hub had thrived in its supporting role. “It worked very well for me,” he recalled. “It’s a rather ghostly place.”


Qatar, Playing All Sides, Is a Nonstop Mediator

Abstract: DOHA, Qatar — In the past month, after Qatari diplomats brokered a landmark peace deal for Lebanon in talks here, this tiny emirate on the Persian Gulf has enjoyed a brief moment of giddy celebrity. Editorialists praised the Qatari emir as a modern-day Metternich. Huge billboards went up on the road to the Beirut airport, proclaiming, “We all say: Thank you Qatar.” An ice cream shop in downtown Beirut put out a sign offering a Doha Agreement Cone. But the Qataris did not linger over their diplomatic triumph. They were too busy trying to solve every other conflict in the Middle East. In the past year alone, the Qatari foreign minister, Hamad bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani (widely known as H.B.J.), has flown his jet — repeatedly — everywhere from Morocco to Libya to Yemen, using charm, guile and large amounts of money to mediate disputes, with varying success. This work has not always earned him gratitude. In an increasingly divided Arab world, the Qataris have fashioned a reputation for themselves as independent-minded arbitrators who will cozy up to anyone — Iran, Israel, Chechen separatists — in pursuit of leverage at the bargaining table. “We don’t have an agenda, and we don’t keep all our eggs in one basket,” said Hassan al-Ansari, the director of gulf studies at Qatar University. That is putting it mildly. Qatar has close ties with Iran, yet it also is host to one of the world’s biggest American air bases. It is home both to Israeli officials and to hard-line Islamists who advocate Israel’s destruction; to Al Jazeera, the controversial satellite TV station; and (at least until recently) to Saddam Hussein’s widow. Saudi Arabia is a trusted ally, but so is Saudi Arabia’s nemesis Syria, whose president, Bashar al-Assad, received an Airbus as a personal gift from the Qatari emir this year. “They really put all the contradictions of the Middle East in one box,” said Mustafa Alani, a security analyst at the Gulf Research Center in Dubai. The Qataris also back their diplomacy with some eclectic investments. Many Americans know about the emir’s gift of $100 million to help Hurricane Katrina victims, but Qatar is also building a $1.5 billion oil refinery in Zimbabwe, a huge residential complex in Sudan and a $350 million tourist project in Syria. Some call Qatar’s policy deranged. The Qataris prefer to think of it as useful. Blessed with enormous oil and natural gas reserves, Qatar is surrounded by large and ambitious neighbors: Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Diplomacy has become a way for Qatar to protect itself and its riches, by forming alliances and by trying to stabilize the region. “The idea is to try to keep everybody happy — or if we can’t, to keep everybody reasonably unhappy,” said one former Qatari official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss foreign policy. “If that makes the Americans or the Russians a little cross, well, tough luck.” It does make them cross. American officials have been quietly furious about Qatar’s assistance to Iran and Syria, which includes substantial financial investments as well as votes against sanctions on Iran during Qatar’s tenure on the United Nations Security Council. The Americans are also angry about Qatar’s hefty financial aid to the militant Palestinian group Hamas after it won elections in 2006. “Their relationship with us has been complex, bordering on one of animosity,” said a high-level State Department official, speaking on condition of anonymity so as not to give offense, adding that Qatar’s support for Hamas had been a “very vexatious problem.” The Russians have complaints too. Qatar provided sanctuary to the Chechen rebel leader Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev until two Russian secret agents killed him in 2004, detonating a bomb in his car as he left a mosque in Doha. The agents were captured by Qatari authorities and convicted of murder, but later extradited at Russia’s request. Various Arab governments have also at times lost patience with Qatar, mainly because Al Jazeera, founded by the Qatari emir, broadcast criticisms of them. Saudi Arabia broke diplomatic relations with Qatar over this issue in 2002, and they were not restored until 2007, after Qatar promised to rein in coverage of the kingdom. Some of Qatar’s recent diplomatic adventures — which include negotiations with rebels in Yemen and Morocco and help in freeing Bulgarian nurses accused of spreading AIDS in Libya — have backfired. In April, Ethiopia broke off relations, saying Qatar’s support for Eritrea had made it “a major source of instability in the Horn of Africa.” There is also some anger among Arabs about the warm welcomes received by Israeli officials in Doha, where Israel also maintains a trade mission — located, as it happens, not far from a villa owned by Khaled Meshal, the leader of Hamas. At times, Qatar’s multifaceted approach to the world has bordered on comedy. In March 2003, Qatar hosted a meeting of the Organization of the Islamic Conference aimed at forestalling the American invasion of Iraq, even as preparations for that invasion were taking place nearby at the American military base. As the final communiqués were being read, military cargo planes could be heard soaring overhead. Mr. bin Jaber, the foreign minister, who is also prime minister, has been coy about the details of Qatar’s unusual diplomacy. He has given some interviews in which he says Qatar wants “good relations with everyone” and defends his country’s relationship with Israel. He declined to be interviewed for this article. Qatar’s policy was born in 1995, when the current emir, Sheik Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, carried out a bloodless coup against his father, who was on vacation in Switzerland. The new emir instantly began transforming Qatar from a sleepy, inward-turned backwater into a dynamic new state. At home, he began an ambitious remodeling of the emirate’s education policies with the help of his wife, Sheikha Mozah bin Nasser al-Missned. Abroad, the emir and his cousin, Mr. Jaber, began building a bold new way to engage with the world while maintaining their country’s independence. In some ways it makes perfect sense. A thumb-shaped peninsula just east of Saudi Arabia, Qatar is a natural intermediary precisely because it is so small and harmless, with just 200,000 citizens. (There are about three times as many foreigners in the country.) “They are not a threat to anyone, and there is no strategic interest behind their diplomacy aside from the moral gain,” said Mr. Alani, the Dubai analyst. Qatar also has an absolute monarchy and virtually no domestic dissent. It is therefore free, unlike almost every other country in the world, to pursue iconoclastic policies abroad without worrying about how they play at home. The fact that Qatar also has the world’s highest per capita gross domestic product, at more than $80,000, probably helps to keep things quiet. Unlike some other countries in the region, Qatar has had only one terrorist attack, a suicide bombing in March 2005 in a Doha theater popular with Westerners. One British citizen was killed and a dozen other people were wounded. Despite occasional diplomatic problems and frequent complaints, Qatar’s policy seems to have worked, catapulting the country to new levels of recognition around the globe. The Qataris’ greatest success by far was the Lebanon agreement in May. Every major power with an interest in Lebanon had tried to resolve the country’s 18-month political crisis. All of them failed, in part because all were seen as favoring a particular group within Lebanon’s political mosaic. Qatar, with its policy of favoring everyone and no one, was the obvious choice for a mediator when violence worsened in May. But Qatar did not succeed by default. Several Lebanese politicians who took part in the negotiations praised both the Qatari foreign minister and the emir for their skill. “They made an interesting and subtle diplomacy,” said Walid Jumblatt, the Lebanese Druse leader. According to Mr. Jumblatt and others involved in the negotiations, the Qataris started out by letting the various Lebanese parties vent their grievances. Days later, when negotiations seemed at an impasse, the Qatari emir — who had sought and been given permission to speak on behalf of all the major regional powers with an interest in Lebanon — abruptly changed his tone. He gathered the Lebanese leaders and issued a stark warning: This was the last chance. Everything else had been tried, and if the deal fell through, they might as well begin a civil war at once, because there was no other option. That warning appears to have worked. It has also had a fringe benefit for the Qataris themselves, whose reputation has grown just a bit brighter. “In the old days, nobody had really heard of Qatar,” said Abdel Aziz al-Mahmoud, the editor of Al Arab, a newspaper in Doha. “Now, once you say ‘I’m from Qatar,’ it’s, ‘Step right this way.’ ”

Qatar
Middle East
International Relations
Arbitration Conciliation and Mediation


China-India Rivalry Possible in African Telecom Deal

Abstract: NEW DELHI — A battle for the MTN Group, a leading South African telecommunications company, could come down to a clash between the world’s largest and fastest-growing emerging markets. Bharti Airtel of India, which said Monday that it was in talks with MTN, is expected to face stiff competition from a Chinese rival, some investment bankers and investors say. MTN, based in Johannesburg, is highly prized because it has nearly 70 million subscribers and is in some of the world’s fastest-growing telecom markets, including Nigeria and Iran. China and India have often been compared as the rest of the world adjusts to the presence of new economic powers, but rarely have representatives of the two nations competed head to head on a deal. China’s government-controlled entities have invested and lent billions of dollars to African countries in recent years, while private companies in India have concentrated more on shopping outside the nation’s borders. Although Indian companies have concluded more big deals, China is buying more foreign assets. In 2007, Indian-based companies announced $21.6 billion in international deals, according to information from Thomson Reuters, while Chinese companies announced $32.5 billion. MTN may draw Chinese phone companies, like China Mobile or China Telecom, to the bargaining table, some analysts predict. Chinese telecommunications companies will be “serious contenders” in a battle for MTN, said Girish Trivedi, deputy director of Frost & Sullivan’s telecommunications practice in South Asia and the Middle East. They are stronger financially, have government backing and have some of the largest subscriber bases in the world, Mr. Trivedi said. China Mobile, with more than 300 million subscribers, is the world’s largest mobile phone company based on the number of users. So far, a Chinese-Indian showdown is purely in the minds of bankers and analysts. Representatives from the Beijing and Hong Kong offices of China Mobile said they had not heard anything yet relating to a possible bid for MTN. William Li, the Hong Kong spokesman for China Telecom, said he had also not heard of any plans for a bid. Some bankers dismissed the idea. China Mobile was interested in MTN a few years ago but did not make a bid because it could not justify the price, said a telecommunications investment banker based in Asia. “The valuations have only gotten higher” since then, he said. Analysts and experts also do not rule out possible interest from Russia, though no bidders have yet emerged. Russia’s three top cellphone companies — VimpelCom, Mobile TeleSystems and Megaphone — are generating excess cash that they cannot invest in their saturated domestic market, said Philip Townsend, head of research and a telecommunications analyst at the Metropol brokerage firm in Moscow. In addition to expanding into other former Soviet republics, they are pushing into countries with cold war-era ties to Russia, which would include some in Africa. “There are many markets in Africa which are natural markets for Russia,” Mr. Townsend said. “They’ve got to find a home for their money.” But the main focus is on China and India. China Mobile came close to a big African deal in 2006, when it agreed to buy Millicom of South Africa. But the Chinese company backed out at the last minute, leaving Millicom investors with a sharply lower stock price. Bharti Airtel said Tuesday that it had not yet made a bid for MTN, despite reports that it had offered $19 billion for 51 percent of the company. “We have just begun talks,” a Bharti executive briefed on the discussions said. “There are many combinations you could look at, and any one could work out. There is no offer put on the table.” Whatever Bharti Airtel decides, finding financing will not be a problem, bankers said. “This is the type of deal that banks, even in this market, want to be associated with,” the head of the telecommunications practice for a European investment bank said.

China
India
Africa
Airtel
Telephones and Telecommunications


Setbacks Tarnish Program to Refit British Homes

Abstract: LONDON — A widely promoted program intended to cut the energy use of Britain’s drafty old homes got off to a bumpy start this year. Critics blame Prime Minister David Cameron’s government for undermining its own efforts by bungling key details and failing to provide adequate financing for the project. Officials initially advertised the Green Deal as a revolutionary effort that would reduce carbon emissions and create as many as 230,000 construction jobs. The program is intended to connect homeowners to loans that finance energy-saving measures like the installation of insulation and efficient heating systems. In 2010, Chris Huhne, then the government’s energy secretary, called the Green Deal “the most ambitious energy-saving plan ever put forward, a once-and-for-all refit that will make every home in Britain ready for a low-carbon future.” Instead, its introduction in January was tarnished by software problems, and it was blamed for the loss of 5,500 jobs in the insulation industry because the market-driven program replaced one under which utilities subsidized insulation for the draftiest homes. The industry says demand for insulation has plummeted, and it accuses the government of failing to plan for the transition. “You’ve got a great policy idea, which is being implemented incredibly badly,” said John Sinfield, managing director of Knauf Insulation, a manufacturer. Newspaper headlines have deemed the new effort a flop. As of the end of August, 71,000 homeowners had commissioned Green Deal assessments to evaluate their energy use, a rate critics say is far too slow to make a major impact. Of those, just 372 had taken out loans under the program. Greg Barker, a minister in the Department of Energy and Climate Change, said in the early months that he wanted 10,000 to enroll by the end of the year, a goal that now appears unreachable. Critics say the government has failed to put the necessary muscle behind the program, making little effort to market it. And they say the interest rates on loans, at 7 percent to 9 percent, are far too high. Mr. Cameron’s officials “keep saying it’s their flagship policy, but they don’t seem to back that up with any substance, and that’s a real shame,” said Zoe Leader, a climate and energy specialist at the conservation group W.W.F. “They don’t want to do anything that’s going to cost them any money.” By all accounts, upgrading the 26 million homes in Britain, many of them more than 100 years old, to reduce the amount of wasted heat and electricity is logistically daunting. Few countries have managed such programs successfully. The government says it is too early to judge the Green Deal, and some efficiency experts agree. The biggest obstacle to energy-saving improvements is the upfront cost. While double-paned windows or new heating systems may save money in the long run, few homeowners are eager to lay out cash for them. The Green Deal aims to eliminate that hurdle, and its guiding principle is that monthly loan repayments should be less than the savings on energy bills. Furthermore, the loans are pinned to the home rather than the owner, so that no one gets stuck paying for improvements to a property they no longer own. “It’s a very innovative way of doing it,” said Jan Rosenow, an associate geography lecturer at Oxford University and energy expert at Ricardo-AEA consulting. “Whether it will actually work is a difficult question.” Still, with austerity keeping public purse strings tight, there is little alternative, he said. “If you want to ramp up the spending, we have to bring in private capital.” Buildings account for an estimated 38 percent of Britain’s carbon emissions, and officials and environmentalists agree that cutting their energy use is necessary for confronting climate change. Officials have already toughened standards for new homes, but getting owners of existing ones to retrofit them with energy efficiency measures is trickier. Efficiency experts say that further incentives or regulation are needed to get that job done. Many argue that tax rebates, particularly in the transaction levy charged when a home changes hands, could give owners the necessary nudge. “We think you need to see Green Deal finance as just one aspect of energy efficiency” promotion, said John Alker, policy director at the U.K. Green Building Council, an advocacy group. “On its own, it’s not going to deliver the change that we need to see.” Mr. Cameron warned at the outset that the program would ramp up gradually. Officials say it is designed for the long term and argue that it should not be judged by the numbers posted in its first months. The earliest figures may be misleading, they say, because many homeowners who have carried out Green Deal assessments may have paid for upgrades in cash rather than using the program’s financing. The reported job losses resulted from the end of a program that had achieved its goal of installing subsidized insulation in easy-to-reach attics and wall cavities, said a spokesman for the energy and climate department, speaking on condition of anonymity in keeping with government policy. That effort was financed by utility companies, but the financing could not have paid for the more expensive work that now needs to be done, like insulating solid walls and installing new heating systems, he said. In the long term, the spokesman said, officials believe the Green Deal will more than triple the number of jobs in insulation, to 60,000 from 19,000 now. “It’s very easy from the outside to say you should subsidize this or pay for that, but we are in a constrained financial environment, so we don’t have unlimited money,” he said. The government has allocated £200 million, or $323 million, to start the program, but the premise of the Green Deal is that most of its financing should be delivered by the private sector, he noted. Though they are higher than current mortgage rates, the interest rates offered are better than for most long-term personal loans, the spokesman said. Still, Julian Hickman, a manager in the music industry who upgraded his 170-year-old house in Bedfordshire, eastern England, with a new layer of insulation on its solid external walls, decided to forgo a Green Deal loan after getting an energy assessment through the program. Mr. Hickman paid for the work with a combination of savings and a grant from a new, utility-funded program. “I didn’t like the idea of having a 25-year loan against my property,” he said, echoing concerns expressed by some others that it could limit a home’s resale value. He also said the interest rates were too high. Mr. Alker, of the Green Building Council, said that although many problems had to be ironed out and a lot more effort was required from the government, the Green Deal still had the potential to succeed. “A lot of other countries are looking at what the U.K. is doing and saying, ‘This looks fantastic,”’ he said. “We’re saying, learn from what difficulties we have come across. It’s complicated and difficult to get right. We haven’t gotten it right just yet.”

Energy Efficiency
Housing
Real Estate
Great Britain


Lawyers Say U.N. Aid Does Not Need Syria’s Consent

Abstract: UNITED NATIONS — United Nations agencies and other charitable organizations do not need the permission of the Syrian government to deliver humanitarian relief to civilians trapped in the fighting and destruction from the three-year-old civil war there, a group of international lawyers and academics argued in an open letter released on Monday. The letter , signed by 35 lawyers, including Hans Corell, the former chief legal counsel of the United Nations, added a prominent new legal argument to demands by rights advocates and nongovernmental organizations that have been pressing to deliver aid. The letter was scheduled for publication in several newspapers on Tuesday, including The Guardian of Britain, Libération of France and Al Hayat, a pan-Arab daily. “Blatant disregard for the most basic rules of international humanitarian law by the Syrian government and elements of the opposition is causing millions to suffer,” the letter asserted. “But this appalling situation has been compounded by an overly cautious interpretation of international humanitarian law, which has held U.N. agencies back from delivering humanitarian aid across borders.” The letter asserted that “there is no legal barrier to the U.N. directly undertaking cross-border humanitarian operations and supporting NGOs to undertake them as well.” Its publication comes as the United Nations finds itself repeatedly blocked by government authorities in Syria as it tries to deliver food, medicines and other basic supplies to endangered Syrian civilians. A resolution passed in late February by the Security Council urged the government to authorize cross-border deliveries of aid, but stopped short of authorizing United Nations agencies from entering the country without consent. Some diplomats have said such cross-border deliveries would require backing up U.N. aid convoys with some military protection, including air cover, in case of an attack.


Shanghai Truckers’ Protest Ebbs With Concessions Won on Fees

Abstract: BEIJING — A three-day protest by truck drivers that disrupted Shanghai’s sprawling port appeared to ebb on Saturday after the local government promised to cut some transport fees and abolish others, meeting some of the drivers’ demands. It remained unclear whether the concessions would end the demonstrations, which had turned violent on Wednesday when about 2,000 angry truckers blockaded some cargo facilities and tried to overturn police cars. The city’s Municipal Transport and Port Authority said Saturday that it would repeal a fuel surcharge that had been imposed on trucks serving the port and reduce others, including a 50-renminbi ($7.70) surcharge on shipping containers that was cut to 20 renminbi ($3.08). The drivers had demanded that that fee be repealed as well, news agencies reported, and negotiations between the two sides on Saturday produced no immediate agreement. But the port, parts of which had been rocked by blockades and protests earlier in the week, was calm. The truckers’ protest has drawn widespread attention in part because it underscores rising concern among ordinary citizens and their government over inflation and its potential to stir public unrest. The cost-of-living index grew by 5.4 percent in March compared with a year earlier, the sharpest increase in 32 months, and food costs rose at more than twice that rate. But the protests are also notable because they have unfolded amid what many call the toughest crackdown on public criticism of the government in years, if not decades. The Shanghai truckers’ demonstration was suppressed by an overwhelming turnout of police officers after Wednesday’s violence, but the authorities have permitted more limited protests. Until Saturday, the entire episode had gone unreported in China ’s state-controlled news media, probably because the authorities feared that word of an inflation-related demonstration might inspire copycat protests elsewhere. On Saturday, the government’s Xinhua news agency reported that fees had been lowered or abolished to address truckers’ concerns about rising fuel costs and transport fees. The Shanghai port authority issued a statement saying that the fee changes were directed at “easing rising inflation and cost pressures on transport companies.” It made no mention of the protests.

China
Shanghai (China)
Demonstrations Protests and Riots
Trucks and Trucking
Prices (Fares Fees and Rates)
Inflation (Economics)
Economic Conditions and Trends


What to Do When Your Prepaid Card Fails

Abstract: Prepaid debit cards can help those who don’t have a bank account and don’t want to carry around bundles of cash. You don’t even need a good credit history to get one (nor do they help you build a credit history). But they also can cause serious headaches, as customers of one popular card found out over the last few days. RushCard customers discovered they couldn’t get access to their money — in some cases for more than a week — after the prepaid card purveyor experienced technical difficulties while switching processing providers over the Columbus Day weekend. RushCard says it has resolved nearly all the issues, but some cardholders were still complaining about being unable to use their cards as of Tuesday. The situation was particularly dire for some customers who had all of their weekly wages direct-deposited onto their RushCards. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has advice for people who experience disruptions in service with their prepaid card. First, if your wages are direct-deposited onto a card, contact your company’s payroll office and put a stop to the direct deposit, either redirecting your paycheck to a new banking or prepaid account or asking that it be issued as a paper check. Those who find themselves unable to cover bill payments linked to prepaid accounts, incurring late fees as a result, can try to negotiate a fee waiver. Companies aren’t required to waive fees, but some might be flexible, says Gail Hillebrand, the consumer bureau’s associate director for consumer education and engagement. Monitor your account for unusual activity and report any unrecognized transactions to the prepaid card issuer. And the regulator says it is accepting consumer complaints on its website and by phone, at consumerfinance.gov or 1-855-411-2372. Since it began accepting complaints about prepaid cards last year, the consumer bureau has gathered 2,700 as of Oct. 1. Another thing to consider when selecting a prepaid card: fees. The Federal Trade Commission points out that some cards charge multiple fees, beginning at purchase and also including fees to add money to a card, buy something with it, take money out of an A.T.M., and check balances or other transaction information. It advises consumers to compare cards and pick the one with low activation fees, annual fees and A.T.M. fees. “Do not buy a card because you like the celebrity who talks about it,” the F.T.C. says. “It may have higher fees than other prepaid cards.”

Debit card
Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
Banking and Finance
FTC
Personal finance


‘It Absolutely Has Created Fear’: 2 Killings Prompt Female Joggers to Alter Routines

Abstract: The two deaths occurred just days apart and had eerily similar details — each time, a woman went jogging during the day in an isolated area and wound up dead. Though one woman’s body was discovered in Massachusetts and the other in Queens, and the authorities do not believe the two attacks were related, the killings have unnerved many female runners. Some are now rethinking their routines. Around 1:15 p.m. on Sunday, Vanessa Marcotte, 27, left her mother’s home in Princeton, Mass., to go for a run on a wooded country road nearby, according to a spokesman with the Worcester County district attorney’s office. Ms. Marcotte was visiting town from her home in New York City, where she worked as a Google marketing account manager. Image Vanessa Marcotte, who went jogging on Sunday in Princeton, Mass., and was found dead that night. Credit Worcester County District Attorney's Office, via Associated Press After she had been gone for more than two and a half hours, the police began looking for Ms. Marcotte. Later that night, a State Police canine unit found her body about a half-mile from her mother’s home. The police began a homicide investigation, but have not made any arrests. An autopsy report had not been completed as of Tuesday afternoon. Police officials in New York said they did not believe the episode was related to the death last Tuesday of Karina Vetrano, 30, in the Howard Beach neighborhood. Ms. Vetrano was sexually assaulted and strangled during a run in a nature preserve near her home, the police said. The news of the two joggers’ deaths has prompted anxiety among female runners in New York City and caused many to question their safety while running alone. “It absolutely has created fear,” said Kathy Ioannou, leader of the Brooklyn chapter of She Runs This Town, a running group for women. “We don’t feel comfortable running alone. We’re frightened.” Ms. Ioannou, 51, said she had seen a “huge spike” in the last two days of women from her group asking her to set up more group runs so that members did not have to go alone. She has made changes to her own running route, choosing to run in the street against traffic instead of in the golf course near her home in Dyker Heights, Brooklyn. She has also stopped running with headphones and has not left the house without her Road ID, which contains her emergency contact information. In search of long stretches of continuous road, many runners venture to unfamiliar places so they can log more miles. Ms. Ioannou said she had been planning on going to the Howard Beach area for an 18-mile run before she heard about the attack there. “It brought light to all of us that we just can’t do the things we’re used to doing,” she said. “It isn’t fair, but it’s smart.” As the peak of the marathon season approaches, many women are leaving home early in the morning — sometimes while it is still dark — to try to squeeze long runs into their schedules, said Melody Davis, a Brooklyn resident and a member of the group Black Girls Run. “What’s really unnerving is that both of these latest situations happened in daylight,” Ms. Davis said. “The question becomes, Then when can I go run?” Some members of her group have suggested using phone apps that can map runners’ locations so that relatives can track their whereabouts. Others have been resorting to running in groups or with a dog, she said. Gisela Perez, a Bronx resident, said she carried Mace and sometimes a safety pin to be used as a possible weapon in case of an emergency while running. She said she also tried to avoid going by herself. For other runners, like Martha Rowen, 73, jogging in groups is not an easy alternative; Ms. Rowen, who lives in Brooklyn Heights, said she had a hard time keeping up with younger runners. “It’s going to probably influence how likely I am to branch out,” Ms. Rowen said about the recent attacks. “I’m not sure I’m going to be able to feel I can do that.” But the killings of both Ms. Vetrano and Ms. Marcotte seem to have taken place in areas they were familiar with. And both were avid runners. The Landmark, a newspaper based in Holden, Mass., reported that in 2014, Ms. Marcotte ran in a race to raise money for cancer research, in honor of her uncle. On Tuesday, one friend posted a photo of herself and Ms. Marcotte on Facebook taking part in a race together. For the past year and a half, Ms. Marcotte had been working as an account manager in health care at Google’s New York City office, according to her LinkedIn profile. In a statement, a Google spokeswoman said Ms. Marcotte was “known for her ubiquitous smile, passion for volunteer work and love of Boston sports.” Ms. Marcotte graduated from Boston University's College of Communication in 2011, her LinkedIn profile says, and worked in Boston before moving to New York. Several of her family and friends declined to comment. Jeff Esposito, who lives in the Boston area, worked with Ms. Marcotte for about two years at Vistaprint, a marketing company. He said Ms. Marcotte loved being outside and exercising. “Vanessa was a true treat to work with,” he said. “She is somebody who will be truly, truly missed.” Ms. Davis, the runner in Brooklyn, said she hoped that the deaths of Ms. Marcotte and Ms. Vetrano would not stop women from wanting to get outside and run. “I want ladies in our community to continue to do what they love,” she said. “I don’t want fear to be another deterrent.”

Queens
Running
Vanessa Marcotte
Princeton
Mass.
Karina Vetrano
Women and Girls
Murders and Homicides
NYC


More Protestants Oppose Birth Control

Abstract: The Republican presidential field has produced a lot of babies. There is Mitt Romney, father of five sons. Ron Paul, an obstetrician by training, is also a father of five, and his campaign Web site credits him with bringing 4,000 babies into the world. Newt Gingrich and the recent dropout Rick Perry have only two children each, but Rick Santorum , who has said contraception is “not O.K.,” has seven children, and so does another former candidate, Jon M. Huntsman Jr. And so far as I can tell, evangelical Christians in South Carolina, who will most likely constitute a majority of voters in Saturday’s primary, don’t think this über-fertility is at all strange. Support for Mr. Santorum may show that Protestants are no longer as troubled by the Roman Catholic objection to birth control. Certain religious groups tend to have large families, whether for reasons of religious observance, as with some Jews, or because it is culturally approved, as in Mormonism. But 50 years ago, large families were unusual in evangelical Protestantism. A Santorum-size family would have been seen as a marker of exotic, sinister religiosity. Big families were stigmatized: they were for immigrants and Catholics, or for the rural poor. Since then, however, there has been a shift in evangelical thinking about contraception, and therefore about big families. You can see it in the Duggar family, the enthusiastic Santorum supporters who star on the reality television show “ 19 Kids & Counting .” You can read about it in books like “ Quiverfull ,” Kathryn Joyce’s 2009 account of Christians who forgo contraception to add children to the Lord’s army. And you can hear it in the teachings of theologians like Russell D. Moore, the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary dean who warns evangelicals to be skeptical of the “contraceptive culture.” From the beginning of Christian history until the 19th century, the teaching held that contraception was sinful, says Allan Carlson, the author of “Godly Seed: American Evangelicals Confront Birth Control, 1873-1973.” “ ‘Be fruitful and multiply and fill the earth’ — until the 1920s, all Protestants formally read that as being a ban on contraception,” Dr. Carlson says, “and all Protestants held to the Christian convention that birth control was sinful, for the same reason and in the same way abortion was.” But that consensus “started to break down in the 1920s,” Dr. Carlson says. The Church of England accepted birth control in 1930, and American Protestant bodies soon followed. As recently as “10 or 20 years ago,” Mr. Santorum’s rejection of birth control “would have been an immediate no” for nearly all Protestants. Today, however, even those evangelical Protestants who use contraception — the vast majority, it would seem — have developed a cultural respect, in some cases a reverence, for those who do not. “For evangelicals, an anticontraception position is not seen as exclusively Roman Catholic, as it would have been in the past,” said Jenell Paris, who teaches anthropology at Messiah College in Pennsylvania. She pointed to several developments in evangelical culture to explain this shift. “Our understanding of hormonal birth control methods — the pill, the patch, the ring — have changed,” said Dr. Paris, alluding to those who believe, on scant evidence, that these methods of birth control can contribute to long-term infertility. “Abortion politics have changed. Views of women in the workplace have changed. Feminism has changed. All that has contributed to a number of evangelicals embracing a no-birth-control policy, or at least making it comprehensible.” As Dr. Paris suggests, much of the new birth-control skepticism comes from the suspicion that contraception is allied with more nefarious practices. In the 1970s, abortion became a central issue for evangelicals; now some worry that the kind of woman who controls her fertility is the kind who would abort an unwanted fetus. Antifeminist Christians worry that secular culture both encourages women to take the pill and leads them into the work force. I called several megachurch preachers in South Carolina to ask about contraception. Don Wilton, the pastor of First Baptist Spartanburg, would not tell me what he believed about contraception. “We recognize there are specific issues that God’s word does not specifically address, and contraception would fall into that category,” Mr. Wilton said. “One has to make one’s judgment based upon what the absolute of God’s word says about the sanctity of life.” Greg Surratt, the founder of Seacoast Church, which is headquartered in Mt. Pleasant but has 13 locations, praised Mr. Santorum’s opposition to birth control. “I would celebrate his conviction,” Mr. Surratt said. “It’s great. As far as making that the law of the land, I don’t think that’s something he wants to do. I hope not. It’s not my stand.” Mr. Surratt would not say whom he was voting for, or if he was a Republican, but he sounded sweet on Santorum: “I’m not endorsing him, but he looks a lot like me when I evaluate my evangelical slant.” It then occurred to me that a few decades ago, when evangelicals and Catholics were further apart on birth control, they were also pretty far apart on questions of salvation — evangelicals were quite clear that Catholics were going to hell. So I asked Mr. Surratt if Mr. Santorum would have any trouble getting into heaven. His answer confirmed that for today’s conservative Christians, the differences between Protestant and Catholic have gotten narrow indeed. “That’s a God deal,” the pastor told me. “That’s his deal to judge. I’m glad I don’t have his job.”

Birth Control and Family Planning
Evangelical Movement
Christians and Christianity
Presidential Election of 2012
Santorum Rick