U.S. Oil Producers Cut Rigs as Price Declines

Abstract: HOUSTON — With oil prices plunging at an ever-quickening rate, producers are beginning to slash the number of drilling rigs around the country. The national rig count had remained surprisingly resilient over recent months even as oil prices dropped by more than 50 percent since June, and it still tops the count of a year ago as domestic production continues to surge. But an announcement on Wednesday by Helmerich & Payne, the giant contract rig company, that it planned to idle up to 50 rigs over the next month sent shudders through the industry. And that came on top of 11 rigs that it has already mothballed, meaning that in just a few weeks, its shale drilling activity will be reduced by about 20 percent. “Low oil prices are increasingly impacting the U.S. land drilling market,” the company said in a presentation to a Goldman Sachs energy conference. The announcement was an early indication that the oil industry, with its history of booms and busts, was in the early stages of its latest downturn. Energy companies drop rigs when drilling costs outpace the price they think they will attract, leading to lower production and higher prices. But until the effects ripple through the market, consumers and the broader economy will most likely enjoy the benefits of low gasoline and heating oil prices for at least the next six months, energy experts say. As for the industry, the signs of retraction are clear. The nation’s rig count, a barometer of oil exploration and production activity, fell by 26 in the week that ended Jan. 2, following a drop of 16 the week before, according to the Baker Hughes service company. The cuts could eventually be felt in areas where the local economy depends on oil. Each rig represents about 100 jobs, from roughneck field hands to maintenance workers, and the current rig count is down 85, or 5 percent, from a recent peak in late 2014. “Demand for rigs is falling off the cliff,” said Joseph Triepke, a financial analyst and managing director of Oilpro, an industry publishing company. “Exploration and production budgets are down anywhere from 30 to 40 percent and the cuts are happening faster than we thought.” Mr. Triepke predicted that over the next six months, the big three land drilling companies — Helmerich & Payne, Nabors Industries and Patterson-UTI Energy — are “likely to cut approximately 15,000 jobs out of the 50,000 people they currently employ.” Already, day rates that oil companies are willing to pay for rigs have dropped 10 percent, Helmerich & Payne said. That is a sign, analysts said, that producers are trying to squeeze costs before they cut revenue-producing output required to pay dividends and the interest on their debts. Even with the reductions, though, large-scale layoffs across the industry are not expected, at least not immediately. Producers contract their rigs for as long as three to four years, and many companies have hedges that lock in higher prices than the going market rates. In addition, producers often need to drill simply to retain their leases or keep their revenue up. Nationwide, the oil industry employs about a million people, including extraction, pipeline construction and refining, and the boom has added about 150,000 industry jobs over the last three years, according to Citi Research. Industry executives say companies are reluctant to let highly skilled workers go, especially when oil prices are likely to rebound in the next couple of years as global energy demand rises. But rig and fracking crews will inevitably be let go first, they said, since those workers can easily be rehired or replaced when drilling rebounds. Domestic oil production has increased by more than a million barrels a day in each of the last three years. But executives say they believe production may begin to slow near the end of the year as the drilling of new wells declines. On Wednesday, the global Brent benchmark dropped below $50 a barrel for the first time since May 2009, before settling around $51. The American benchmark rose slightly, to around $48. Image An oil drilling pump site in North Dakota. Because of a pipeline shortage, Bakken shale producers are selling crude for about $34 a barrel. Credit Shannon Stapleton/Reuters But producers in some American fields are receiving far less than that. Because of a shortage of pipelines and the distance to major markets, North Dakota’s Bakken shale producers this month so far are selling their crude for as little as $34 a barrel. That is why oil executives say the state that rapidly emerged as the nation’s second-biggest producer after Texas could suffer the biggest reversal in investment and output in the coming months. “Drilling in North Dakota is very expensive and the costs are extremely high,” noted Chris Faulkner, chief executive of Breitling Energy, an oil and gas explorer that left North Dakota a year ago to concentrate operations on South Texas. “If you are not in the middle of the sweet spot in the Bakken there is no way you are now going to risk 10 or 11 million dollars on a well.” Already companies are dropping rigs in nearby Canadian fields at a far faster rate than in the United States. There are signs almost every day that the industry is slowly reversing its breakneck drilling spree of the last six years, as exploration and production in new shale fields nearly doubled domestic production. This week, Concho Resources, a major producer in the Permian basin of West Texas, announced its 2015 exploration and production budget would be cut by a third, to $2 billion. “In the current environment, we intend to prudently manage our 2015 capital program around anticipated cash flows,” said Tim Leach, Concho’s chief executive, “and retain significant flexibility to scale our activity up or down depending on service costs and commodity prices.” Even with the cuts, Concho projects producing more oil in 2015 than last year, as do many other companies, potentially putting further pressure on oil prices. Another big Texas producer, Pioneer Natural Resources, moved on Wednesday to protect itself from the declining market by converting most of its derivative contracts to a fixed-price swap that guaranteed prices for payment. The company will receive just over $71 a barrel for 82,000 barrels a day of production. That floor price reflects the industry view that the crude price will rebound, though it may not approach the $100-a-barrel levels of last summer for the next year or two. “Restaurants are still full and the traffic is still heavy around Midland,” said Dexter Allred, general manager of Rusty’s Oilfield Service Company, which serves the Permian Basin, referring to the West Texas oil capital. “But six months from now may be another story.”

Price
Helmerich & Payne
Shale
Oil and Gasoline


F.B.I. Creates Crime-Fighting Web Site

Abstract: Bank robberies may be down from a recent peak, but the Federal Bureau of Investigation is nevertheless making a push to track down suspects, enlisting the public’s help through a new Web site. The site, called BanditTracker NorthEast , features images of robbers in New Jersey and New York culled from security cameras over the past few years. In a modern take on the “wanted” notices adorning post office walls, the site also includes information about the suspects in question, like their heights, races and builds. Telephone numbers are provided so people can call if they think they know the whereabouts of a suspect. In the past, it took F.B.I. agents a few days to prepare these types of posters and similar announcements about bank robberies. With that lag, information was sometimes not mentioned on a local newscast because the story had been deemed old, said F.B.I. agents who unveiled the site on Wednesday at a federal office building in Lower Manhattan. Now, because images can be posted online within hours of the crime, possibly even from a bank that is robbed, it means agents might be able to arrest robbers still making their getaways. Spectrum Management, a technology company based in Texas, created the site. It is providing the service free to the F.B.I. The company set up the first BanditTracker in Dallas in 2007, and followed it with similar versions in Little Rock, Ark.; Indianapolis; Chicago; and Atlanta. On Wednesday, when the Northeast site opened, it displayed images from 29 robberies. Five images from higher-priority cases were at the top of the page, rotating on eight-second cycles. One was of a robbery on Feb. 22 in White Plains, when a man wearing a camouflage cap displayed a gun to an employee at the Hudson City Savings Bank and demanded cash, the site said. Farther down on the site’s page are other images, like that of a person who held up a Bank of America branch at Broadway and West 107th Street on the Upper West Side on Aug. 20, 2009. Though that robber, like many featured on the site, seems hard to identify, Spectrum officials say similar sites in other cities have produced useful leads. Indeed, they said, tips from the BanditTracker site led to the convictions of the so-called Scarecrow Bandits , a group of bank robbers in Dallas, named for their floppy hats and flannel shirts. The effort comes despite a sharp decline in bank robberies in the region. In 2009, there were 222 robberies in New York City, said James Margolin, an F.B.I. spokesman, compared with 444 in 2008 and 283 in 2007. The F.B.I. said the 2008 figure was the highest in a decade. In New Jersey, there were 190 robberies in 2009, 202 in 2008 and 162 in 2007, said Steven Siegel, a special agent who focuses on bank robberies in that state.

Federal Bureau of Investigation
Robberies and Thefts
Banks and Banking
Computers and the Internet
Crime and Criminals


Deadline Passes for U.S. Forces in Libyan Conflict

Abstract: WASHINGTON — With NATO officials expressing increased confidence on Friday that Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi ’s military position in Libya was weakening, the Obama administration appeared to ignore a statute requiring hostilities to cease after two months if Congress had not authorized them to continue. The War Powers Resolution of 1973 says that a president must terminate military operations 60 days after notifying Congress that he had introduced armed forces into actual or imminent hostilities. The Libyan operation reached that deadline on Friday. But Pentagon and military officials said the United States’ participation in the Libyan mission was going forward unchanged. That includes the intermittent use of armed Predator drones to fire missiles at Libyan government forces, as happened on Thursday and Friday, they said. “We will not halt our current operations, which are limited and in support of this critical, NATO-led humanitarian operation,” said Tommy Vietor, a National Security Council spokesman. While the legal debate was playing out, NATO commanders seemed to go beyond their typically cautious statements on the conflict, saying that allied airstrikes had prevented Colonel Qaddafi’s forces from making sustained attacks on rebel fighters and had driven the Libyan leader into hiding. “NATO nations and partners agree we have taken the initiative; we have the momentum,” the alliance spokeswoman, Carmen Romero, said at a Friday news briefing, summarizing the view of NATO ambassadors who met earlier in the week. A NATO military spokesman, Wing Commander Mike Bracken, said of Colonel Qaddafi: “Effectively he has gone into hiding.” The briefing on Friday echoed the generally upbeat conclusions contained in a confidential assessment of the operation’s first 60 days that Lt. Gen. Charles Bouchard of Canada, the allied operational commander in Naples, Italy, sent to NATO political and military leaders in Brussels this week, a NATO diplomat said. While noting the alliance’s steady progress in eroding the combat effectiveness of Colonel Qaddafi’s forces, General Bouchard also outlined three options for how NATO could continue the mission beyond the three months that allied leaders approved in March, said the diplomat, who had been briefed on the report. One would maintain current NATO force levels. Another option, assuming Colonel Qaddafi was ousted from power, calls for much lower force levels during what could be a transition to a new government. A third plan would increase pressure on Colonel Qaddafi’s government, but does not go into details. General Bouchard made no recommendations, the diplomat said, leaving that decision to NATO ambassadors. Late on Friday, the White House released a letter from President Obama to Congressional leaders defending the Libya operation. While he did not directly ask for a resolution authorizing the action or concede that it was necessary, he expressed support for the idea of a legislative endorsement. “Congressional action in support of the mission would underline the U.S. commitment to this remarkable international effort,” he wrote. “Such a resolution is also important in the context of our constitutional framework, as it would demonstrate a unity of purpose among the political branches on this important national security matter.” While Congressional leaders have signaled little institutional interest in enforcing the resolution, there are signs that a political controversy is starting to pick up. On Wednesday, six Republican senators sent a letter to Mr. Obama noting the imminent deadline “for you to terminate the use of the United States armed forces in Libya.” They asked “whether you intend to comply with the requirements of the War Powers Resolution.” On Thursday, Representative Howard P. McKeon of California, the Republican chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, sent a similar letter to Mr. Obama stressing that the country was about to reach the War Powers Resolution deadline, which he portrayed as a “critical juncture.” And on Friday, the American Civil Liberties Union also wrote to Mr. Obama expressing its “profound concern” that he was about to violate the War Powers Resolution, and arguing that he had no legal authority to use military force in Libya. Administration officials offered no theory for why continuing the air war in Libya in the absence of Congressional authorization and beyond the deadline would be lawful. Jack Goldsmith, a Harvard law professor who led the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel in 2003 and 2004, portrayed it as a significant constitutional moment. “There may be facts of which we are unaware, but this appears to be the first time that any president has violated the War Powers Resolution’s requirement either to terminate the use of armed forces within 60 days after the initiation of hostilities or get Congress’s support,” Mr. Goldsmith said. Jay Carney, the White House press secretary, said that the validity of the War Powers Resolution had been so debated that writings about it “over the years could fill this room, and none of it would be conclusive.” Congress enacted the resolution in 1973, overriding President Richard M. Nixon’s veto, in an effort to reassert its constitutional role in making decisions about whether the country would get involved in significant armed conflicts. Several parts of the resolution have been repeatedly challenged by presidents. But a 1980 opinion by the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel concluded that the 60-day limit was constitutional. (The law allows presidents to extend the deadline by 30 days if necessary to protect the safety of forces as they withdraw, which does not appear to apply to an air campaign.) “The practical effect of the 60-day limit is to shift the burden to the president to convince the Congress of the continuing need for the use of our armed forces abroad,” the 1980 memorandum says. “We cannot say that placing that burden on the president unconstitutionally intrudes upon his executive powers.” Such opinions are binding on the executive branch unless they are superseded by the Justice Department or the president. The Justice Department did not respond to a question about whether the 31-year-old memorandum remains in effect. The administration has argued that Mr. Obama did not need Congressional permission to deploy forces to Libya, saying that a president may order forces into limited military engagements on his own if he decides it is in the national interest, and that the NATO-led campaign in Libya is such a conflict.

Middle East and North Africa Unrest (2010- )

United States Defense and Military Forces


Ogilvy Outduels Sabbatini to Win SBS Championship

Abstract: KAPALUA, Hawaii — Geoff Ogilvy came to Maui this year with a different set of golf clubs and a new sponsor’s name on his cap. But the only significant changes in his performance at the SBS Championship at Kapalua Resort were in his margin of victory and the identity of the runner-up. After brushing past the faltering leader Lucas Glover and overcoming a torrid late charge by Rory Sabbatini , Ogilvy retained his title with a one-stroke win over Sabbatini. Ogilvy’s steady final round of six-under-par 67 gave him a total of 22-under 270 for his seventh PGA Tour victory. Sabbatini closed with a 63 on the strength of 10 birdies, but he missed a 10-footer for birdie at the last hole and finished at 21 under. Matt Kuchar shot 67 to finish alone in third at 273. “I had no idea what he was doing until I saw the board at nine,” Ogilvy, 32, said of Sabbatini. “I saw he was 19 under or something. That’s an unbelievable round out there, 10 under on this course. It was a weird situation for me, having to make birdies to catch somebody, and I was really happy and excited that I was able to make them. “Coming up the 10th hole I knew I had to play the back nine in three under par, and I’m pretty proud, if you will, to have been able to do that.” Ogilvy’s repeat performance was not as dominating as his 24-under, 6-stroke victory over Davis Love III and Anthony Kim here last year, but it was every bit as convincing. From the time he birdied the first hole to pull even with Glover — who stumbled to a tie for 14th with a 76 that included two double bogeys — Ogilvy made one mistake: hitting his drive into a hazard of the sixth hole. He made a bogey there, just his fourth of the tournament, then set about overtaking Sabbatini, who was a little surprised by his low score. “I had been struggling with the putter and didn’t quite know what to expect,” Sabbatini said. “The situation was that you had to keep moving forward, keep making birdies. I had the opportunity and, unfortunately, it didn’t pan out.” He made enough to be sitting in the clubhouse at 21 under. With Glover sliding out of sight, Sean O’Hair was the main threat. O’Hair shot 33 on the front, then added birdies at the 10th, 13th, 14th and 16th holes to reach 20 under with the par-5 18th hole still to play. Seeing that Ogilvy had birdied the 15th to reach 22 under, O’Hair figured his only chance to set up an eagle chance was to try to hit the green from a downslope with a 3-wood from 281 yards away. Saying he wanted to try to “squeeze the ball” off the lie, O’Hair instead hit a low hook that went into the chasm left of the green. He double-bogeyed the hole for a round of 68 and finished in a tie for fourth with Martin Laird, who closed with a 70 for a total of 18-under 274. “I think it was more of a mental error than it was technical,” O’Hair said. “It was a nice situation to be in in the first tournament of the year. It got the juices going, which really felt good. I definitely performed a lot better than I expected.” With wind, climate and sloping terrain similar to Australia, Kapalua may become the same kind of annuity for Ogilvy that it was for his fellow Australian Stuart Appleby , who won three straight here from 2004 to 2006. Ogilvy was a combined seven over par in his first two appearances here in 2006 and 2007. After shooting 46 under in his two victories, Ogilvy said he was beginning to feel at home. “You rarely shoot straight at the pins in Australia, much the same as here,” Ogilvy said. “Much of the time you use the slopes to work the ball toward the hole. I feel like now I may have figured it out. “I’m very happy to be the first one to be in line to come back here next year.”

Golf
Ogilvy Geoff
Sabbatini Rory
Appleby Stuart


Rape Charge Is Set for Boy Held in Death of Teacher

Abstract: BOSTON — A 14-year-old boy accused of killing his teacher was charged on Thursday with having raped her as well. An Essex County grand jury indicted the boy, Philip Chism of Danvers, for murder, aggravated rape and armed robbery in connection with the death last month of his math teacher, Colleen Ritzer, 24, at Danvers High School, about 20 miles north of Boston. “The indictments returned today detail horrific and unspeakable acts,” District Attorney Jonathan Blodgett said in a statement. The authorities have yet to comment on a possible motive for the attack, which took place in a school bathroom. The medical examiner has ruled the death a homicide based on the nature of the injuries but has not ruled on the exact cause of death. The aggravated rape indictment said that Mr. Chism had sexually assaulted Ms. Ritzer with an object, which was not identified. Aggravated rape is charged when there is serious bodily harm or when the rape is committed during the commission of another crime. The armed robbery indictment says Mr. Chism used a box cutter to rob Ms. Ritzer of credit cards, an iPhone and her underwear. In Massachusetts, anyone over the age of 14 who is indicted on a charge of murder is automatically tried as an adult, which means that if he is found guilty, Mr. Chism could be sentenced to life without parole. But he will be tried as a youthful offender on the rape and robbery charges; anyone age 14 to 17 who commits a felony and causes serious bodily harm is considered a youthful offender. Prosecutors said they would move to join all the indictments in Superior Court. Mr. Chism is being held without bail and is waiting for his arraignment.

Rape
Philip Chism
Murders
Colleen Ritzer
Danvers High School Danvers Mass
Danvers Mass


Drawing the Line on Gossip After the Gawker Trial

Abstract: The brand-new Gawker Media offices in downtown Manhattan are the bomb, as in great. They’re all glass and steel, clean lines and modern fixtures. They were paid for in secrets, exposed with a joyful ferocity that enriched Gawker’s founders and helped redefine how far our reality-TV culture could go to satisfy its appetite for gossip and news about the famous, the powerful and, increasingly, just the mildly interesting. I visited those offices last week in part to find out whether the $140 million in civil awards against Gawker, for showing a private sex tape starring the retired wrestler Hulk Hogan, would be its undoing. But I was after a bigger question: Have we finally found the bottom, or more generously, the limit? After decades of journalistic scandal-mongering, each more intrusive than the last — and then juiced by the Internet — was the jury in Florida that ruled so decisively against Gawker speaking for the entire culture in saying, “Enough”? I do not come at the question from the monastery. I’ve at times been part of the pack, especially during the early part of my career, which included gossip-writing stints at The New York Post and The Daily News. My Daily News bosses once dispatched me to the Los Angeles home of Dr. Paul Crane, the obstetrician tending to the mother of Michael Jackson’s children, to find out whether his famous patient’s first baby was made the old-fashioned way. I showed up at the house on the day of his daughter’s bat mitzvah. (Sorry, Dr. Crane!) John F. Kennedy Jr. once caught a colleague and me crouching behind a car while spying on his new bride, Carolyn Bessette Kennedy , as she ate breakfast at a neighborhood cafe. Give her a break, he pleaded, she was new to all this. (We called our editors from a pay phone, certain they would allow us to heed the request. “Get back out there,” came the reply.) That was all before technology made it easy for a guy named Bubba the Love Sponge to invite his friend Hulk Hogan (real name, Terry Bollea) to have sex with the woman who was then his wife, and to record it so that it finds its way to a popular website , where it could be viewed by millions of visitors and instantly shared with millions more. The jurors believed Mr. Bollea’s testimony that he did not know he was being recorded, and that Gawker violated his privacy rights. They also found it infuriating. The $115 million in compensatory damages was $15 million more than Mr. Bollea had asked for. As one juror said on “Good Morning America”: “We drew a line.” For Gawker, whose parent company has a net worth of roughly $250 million, it was less a line than a hangman’s noose. Still, the mood at the offices last week seemed unbowed. Gawker was preparing to file papers on Monday seeking to have the jury’s verdict thrown out or the award reduced. It will argue that Mr. Bollea did not prove his right to privacy trumped Gawker’s right to cover him aggressively as a world-famous former wrestler who has spoken freely about his sexual adventures. “The public figure can’t just say, ‘I control this conversation,’” Heather Dietrick , Gawker’s president and general counsel, told me. “He’s out there talking about details of his sex life ,” she said, continuing to give very specific details — anatomical and otherwise — about what she had in mind. Not necessarily the stuff to inspire future applicants to the Columbia School of Journalism. And Ms. Dietrick acknowledges the story is “not the Pentagon Papers.” But it comports with Gawker’s longtime drive to be, as its founder, Nick Denton, says, “Uncompromised and uncompromising” in unearthing whatever might drive reader interest, intrigue, truth and web traffic. Interestingly, one of Gawker Media’s first big hits was a Paris Hilton sex video, which ran on its Fleshbot site in 2003. (Mr. Denton sold Fleshbot in 2012.) Far from threatening to bring the house down, it helped solidify Mr. Denton’s company as a real web player. The tape fit with Gawker’s sensibility — punching up at the arrogance of wealth and celebrity (in this case an heiress who was famously famous for being famous) in the media pirate’s tradition of its forebears at Spy magazine. But Spy, as its co-founder Kurt Andersen pointed out to me, was not in the constant-search-for-clicks business. And as Gawker’s web traffic grew, it got into trouble when it seemed to be meanly punching down, exposing secrets about people who were not so obviously newsworthy. There was the post last summer, for instance, about a relatively unknown married male media executive and his alleged attempt to pay for sex with a male escort. It drew indignant howls, and Gawker retracted the piece . Then there was the decision by Deadspin, a Gawker-owned site, to show a random video in 2010 of an inebriated female college student having sex in a bathroom stall. At trial, Hulk Hogan’s lawyers presented emails of the woman’s desperate entreaties to take it down and Deadspin’s lighthearted refusal. “ These things do pass, ” the former Deadspin and Gawker editor, A. J. Daulerio, told her. “Keep your head up.” It did not play well with the jury, nor did his reason for later changing his mind: “ It was possibly rape .” Suddenly, it was not just the fabulously famous — Michael Jackson and John F. Kennedy Jr. — whose lives we were being invited to peer into; it was people just like us. At the same time, as social media made us stars of our own movies, people like us could increasingly relate to the perils of public exposure once known only by the famous. Mr. Denton told me that this phenomenon played a part in the outcome of the trial. He pointed to a moment when a potential juror described being moved to ask a friend to remove an unflattering photo of her from a Facebook post. Social media, he said, made the jury pool “more sympathetic to the celebrity publicity machine,” which makes similar requests. This is all part of the Internet self-correction that my colleague John Herrman wrote about a couple of weeks ago, how the public is recoiling from the web’s raunchiest offerings. Mr. Denton more or less subscribes to that theory, which is why he recently vowed to make his sites “ 10 to 15 percent nicer .” But it only goes so far. Two of his staff members, Tom Scocca, executive features editor of Gawker, and Emma Carmichael, editor in chief of Jezebel, told me sometimes truth and justice lie in the muck. An item about old accusations of sexual misconduct against Bill Cosby, for instance, helped start the re-examination of his treatment of women that led to criminal charges. Deadspin’s use of a photo purporting to be a sexted shot of Brett Favre’s penis broke open broader sexual harassment allegations against him and his team. Such high-minded arguments can be a thin veil when attached to the journalism of exposed genitalia. As Mr. Bollea’s lawyer, Charles Harder, argued to me in an interview last week, if there was one thing the founders didn’t have in mind when they wrote the First Amendment, it was “uncensored sex tapes and secretly filmed private conversations in a bedroom.” Mr. Harder is using Gawker’s own mantra about transparency against it — saying he will collect his client’s due by unmasking a “shroud of secrecy” around Gawker’s financial structure . That structure, he says, allows Gawker to divert millions in profits to Kinja, its sister company in Hungary, which runs Gawker’s technology platform. Ms. Dietrick of Gawker countered by saying that there was nothing unusual about Gawker’s corporate setup and that the company’s appeal would preclude any payments related to Mr. Bollea’s jury award. Gawker’s ability to survive intact depends on whether she is right. Now, the bigger question: Has our culture reached its limit with the invasive and the tawdry? Maybe. But I’m left with a new question: Is that because we’ve become more decorous toward our public figures? Or does it all seem much creepier when, increasingly, we are the public figures?

Gawker
Hulk Hogan
Privacy
Nick Denton
News media,journalism
Lawsuits


U.N. Leader Plans Stronger Presence in Ebola Zone

Abstract: The United Nations secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, said on Wednesday that he planned to establish a new on-the-ground mission in West Africa to coordinate the struggle against Ebola, a move that signaled his concern with the response so far and the limitations of the World Health Organization’s abilities. In an interview with the editorial board of The New York Times, Mr. Ban said that he intended to ask the General Assembly to support his plan in order to demonstrate the unanimous global concern about Ebola, the deadly virus that is spreading at exponential rates in three Western African countries. Mr. Ban is scheduled to address a Security Council meeting devoted to Ebola on Thursday afternoon and said he was hoping to convene a special General Assembly session on Friday. “We don’t need all this time-consuming, so-called consultation, or consensus building,” Mr. Ban said. “There is a consensus already that this is very serious and urgent. This spreads and doubles in three weeks’ time. So it’s a matter of take action. We have to save the people.” “That’s the main purpose, to take immediate action,” he said. A draft Security Council resolution, proposed by the United States, calls on member states to provide assistance, including medical personnel and field hospitals, and urges countries in the region to lift travel restrictions and keep borders open. The resolution says the spread of Ebola in Africa “constitutes a threat to international peace and security,” and follows President Obama’s announcement on Tuesday that the United States was preparing to offer medicine, equipment and up to 3,000 military personnel as part of the effort to curb the virus. It was not immediately clear how an increased United Nations presence in the most afflicted countries — Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea — would give the organization more power to contain the crisis. But Mr. Ban said it would emphatically signal that places ravaged by Ebola are not pariahs to be shunned and avoided — a message he has sought to reinforce in his conversations with other world leaders. “There is a huge psychological panic and fear that nobody wants to go in,” he said. “So we have to give some sense of assurance that there is full protection and support by the international community.” Asked when the new mission would start, he said. “It should not take a couple of months, it should take a couple of weeks.” The W.H.O. said that as of Tuesday, Ebola cases in the three most affected countries totaled 4,963, with 2,453 deaths. The organization has predicted that many more thousands of people will be infected. Video A shortage of adequate facilities in West Africa as well as doctors to staff them is hindering the fight against ebola. Credit Credit John Moore/Getty Images Mr. Ban spoke as the forecast for the most afflicted countries appeared to worsen. The World Bank Group reported on Wednesday that those countries could experience a “potentially catastrophic blow” to their economies. The outbreak could cut gross domestic product by nearly 12 percent in Liberia and nearly 9 percent in Sierra Leone in 2015 if it is not curbed, according to the report, which acknowledged considerable uncertainty in its estimates. The impact in Guinea would be less severe, at around 2 percent. A fear of contagion and what the bank referred to as “aversion behavior” is driving most of the economic losses. Panic is closing places of employment, disrupting transportation and severing air and sea links with other nations, the analysis found. The pattern is consistent with infectious disease outbreaks elsewhere, including SARS and H1N1 flu, during which behavioral changes accounted for 80 percent to 90 percent of economic losses, according to bank estimates. “The fear of contagion has helped fuel an economic crisis,” Dr. Jim Yong Kim, the bank’s president, said in a news conference. If the virus spreads significantly to other African nations, the costs could reach, “depending on the scenario, we think potentially many billions of dollars,” Dr. Kim said. “The best-case scenario is still not in sight.” Decreased labor supply is a smaller factor in the losses in West Africa, stemming from illnesses, deaths and caregiving. These are related not only to Ebola, but also to other diseases left untreated because health systems have collapsed as medical workers fell ill or refused to work because of the risks and a lack of protective supplies. Hazard pay for health workers is needed to help reopen the services, but is still not provided, Amara Konneh, Liberia’s finance minister, said in a telephone interview. He said the country was working with donors, including the World Bank and the United States government, to support roughly $60 million for the additional pay. “We appreciate the response to date but we need more assistance quite frankly,” he said. The World Bank’s prediction, Mr. Konneh said, “is not new to us, but rather it confirms what we have been saying since the onset of the outbreak.” The bank said that both food prices and inflation were rising as a result of “shortages, panic buying and speculation.” Dr. Kim said that most of the economic impact could be blunted “if we get an effective response on the ground in the next few months.”

Ebola
Africa
World Bank
UN
WHO
Ban Ki moon


A Champion 40 Years Ago, Jackie Stewart Remains a Fan Favorite Today

Abstract: An unobtrusive Scotsman was doing a little shopping in Texas last week when he found himself being stopped a dozen times to sign autographs and have his photo taken. He was not dressed in his usual blue and white shirt and tartan flat cap and pants, but in a track suit, and wearing sunglasses but no hat. Yet 40 years after the last of his three world drivers’ championships and his retirement from the sport that made him a household name, Jackie Stewart is still recognized in countries around the world that are not even known for their love of his kind of racing, Formula One. “I just do not understand it,” said Stewart, 74, in an interview at the United States Grand Prix last weekend. “It’s 40 years since I drove a car. And it is Austin, Texas, it isn’t Monte Carlo, it isn’t London! So there is something that I’m not aware of.” That Stewart has always attracted people, with an indefinable magnetic force of charisma, is now officially documented with the release of a long-forgotten documentary that follows him around the Monaco Grand Prix of 1971, a race he would win, in a season in which he would capture his second title, driving for the Tyrrell team. Stewart was good friends at the time — and remains so today — with another charismatic but quite different character, the French-Polish filmmaker Roman Polanski. Polanski was a racing fan, and while he was between films he decided to produce a documentary directed by the late Frank Simon and featuring his friend, “Weekend of a Champion.” He may still be recognized today, but Polanski’s film shows just how important and revered Stewart was during his time racing, constantly sought out for autographs and praised by fans. Polanski and Stewart have remained friends since they met in the late 1960s, when Polanski was filming “Rosemary’s Baby” in California. “It was a great friendship, as it turned out, two people who were quite good at what they did, and therefore there was no ego factor,” Stewart said. In the film, Stewart appears as a driving mentor for Polanski, telling the enthusiastic director how to race around Monaco and do a good racing line, in the same manner he did for his teammate François Cevert, as shown in the film. “Cevert developed as a driver and for sure he would have won the world championship,” he said of the French driver, who died in a crash in 1973. “But it was almost the perfect model of professor and student. I told him just about everything I knew, just because I liked him.” One of the primary elements that defines the film and reflects the difference between Stewart’s era and today, and the difference between the characters of his generation of drivers and those today, is the element of danger. More than a handful of the drivers in that 1971 season would eventually be killed in racing accidents, and another, Graham Hill, would die in a crash of his private plane. “These guys out there would not know how to handle death,” said Stewart of today’s drivers. “What day is it today?” he asked, building up to prove the point. “The 15th of November? That means it has been exactly, 19 years, 7 months and 14 days since we lost Senna.” Stewart began a safety campaign that would eventually be picked up by Bernie Ecclestone, the F1 promoter; Sid Watkins, the track doctor; and Max Mosley, the president of the F.I.A. in the 1990s and first decade of the 2000s. That effort would lead to a vast improvement in safety today. “It was a unique period,” Stewart recalled. “In ’68, we had four consecutive months on the same weekend of the month where someone was killed. And then you are still going racing. When the visor goes down the lights go out. “I was with Jochen when he died,” he added, referring to Jochen Rindt, the series’ only posthumous world champion, who died in a crash in 1970. “I was feeling so down, and I got into the car in tears, and I did my quickest lap. And when I got out of the car again, I was in tears. I smashed a bottle of Coca-Cola against a concrete wall — I had never done anything like that in my life.” Stewart is one of only five drivers to have won three titles in Formula One, and only four have won more than that. With 27 Grand Prix victories in a career that lasted from 1965 to 1973, Stewart is seventh on the list of most race victories. He is also known for his sharp mind and wit, although he dropped out of school at 15 and only discovered many years after his illustrious racing career had ended that he is dyslexic. But as an equally sharp businessman, he managed an exemplary, smooth transition to “civilian” life after he put an end to his sporting career. In his final year of racing, he had told no one that he planned to retire after the season, all the while working out several deals to represent big companies the following year. As a driver, he was already taking care of his growing family and business, in an era when the pay slip for racers was nothing like the millions it is today. He began working as a commentator for racing on ABC television in the United States while still racing in Formula One in 1971. “I was in poor shape that year,” he said, “I was doing CanAm, “ABC’s Wide World of Sports” with Roone Arledge, I had mononucleosis, really heavy. So that year I traveled across the Atlantic 86 times.” In the 1990s, he created a Formula One team with his son Paul, called Stewart Grand Prix, which lasted three seasons, and actually won a race, in the German Grand Prix of 1999. Stewart then sold the team to Ford Motor, with which he had a long association, for $150 million, and the company changed the name to Jaguar. Jaguar had little success, but Ford then sold the team to Red Bull in 2005 and since then it has become one of the most successful teams in the series’ history, winning the last four world championships for both drivers and constructors. Stewart has continued working in the series as an ambassador for sponsors, currently with Rolex and with Genii Capital, an investment company that owns the Lotus team.

Formula One
Monaco Grand Prix
Roman Polanski
Car Racing


M.T.A. Told It Must Focus on Repairs, Not Growth

Abstract: The Metropolitan Transportation Authority should concentrate on improving the condition of its existing transit systems before plowing ahead with the second phase of the Second Avenue subway and other expansion projects, a watchdog agency said on Thursday. In a report that called the authority’s priorities “misplaced,” the Citizens Budget Commission called for more emphasis on safety and increasing the capacity of the New York City subway system. The subways have been carrying heavier and heavier loads, exceeding six million riders on four separate days last month. The analysis comes as the authority is seeking aid from Albany to cover a huge funding gap in its $32 billion capital plan for the next five years. The authority’s available money would cover only about half of the proposed spending, leaving transit officials to borrow heavily or find other sources of revenue to close the gap. But Charles Brecher, the consulting research director for the budget commission, said the authority should reconsider its quest for additional money. “Let’s be sure we’re spending the money on the right things,” he said. Mr. Brecher said the authority was “paying too much attention to these new-start projects and not enough to fixing what we have and putting in modern communications and signals.” In response, Adam Lisberg, a spokesman for the authority, said the transit agency hoped that the capital program, which it released last month, would “spur a wide-ranging conversation about capital priorities as well as capital spending.” But he added that the spending plan “makes clear that expanding the network, as well as providing enhancements such as countdown clocks and next-generation payment systems, are very important to the M.T.A. and to our customers.” The authority operates two commuter networks, the Long Island Rail Road and the Metro-North Railroad, as well as the city’s subway and bus systems. In its five-year plan, most of the money — $22 billion — would go toward subway cars and buses and improvements to tracks and signals. The rest would pay for new technology and expansion projects, including extending the Second Avenue subway and connecting the Long Island Rail Road to Grand Central Terminal and Metro-North’s New Haven line to Pennsylvania Station. Expanding the system should be postponed until more of the authority’s equipment is returned to “a state of good repair,” Mr. Brecher said. Among the deficiencies, he said, are many of the pumps used to keep the subways dry, as well as the underground fans and ventilation systems. “They’re going too slow on state-of-good-repair work,” he said. “ They’ve done a good job in terms of things that are visible, like subway cars and tracks. But there are other hidden assets that are very important that have gotten less attention.”

Second Avenue Subway
Subway
Citizens Budget Commission
Public Transit
MTA


Blue-Hued Seats Return to Madison Square Garden

Abstract: The nose bleeds, the rafters, the cheap seats. Whatever their name, they more or less mean the same thing: they are where the die-hards sit. For the last 45 years, Rangers fans have known them as the Blue Seats in recognition of the former color of the seats in the upper tier of Madison Square Garden. Back in the day, there were betting pools, a hefty amount of beer consumed and a hazy smoke with a whiff of the illicit. Some fans threw rolls of toilet paper or fruit on the ice after a Rangers goal or a bad call by the referee. Those freewheeling days are largely gone; thanks to a three-year overhaul of the Garden, so are many of those seats. During the off-season, most of the upper tier was removed so that the bowl below could be extended upward. The last 1,000 or of the seats are behind the goal at the west end of the arena. At the Rangers’ home opener Sunday, fans returned to find new seats that matched the blue in those installed in 1968, when the Garden opened. Television screens have been added, as well as new concession stands and bathrooms. The sections were slightly reconfigured, but the structure of the balcony was untouched and the vibe unchanged. “This is where the true fans sit,” said Leo Strauss, who has had season tickets in the Blue Seats since 1968. “We bleed blue.” Like Strauss, other Blue Seaters remain fiercely loyal and caustically cynical, and sneer at whom they believe to be the more casual and wealthier fans sitting below. They date their devotion to the Rangers in decades, not years, consider their seatmates an extended family and appreciate the team’s recent success, partly because they endured the down years. “You see the same people up there, and you just laugh, the guy who curses, the guy who gets drunk, the woman who knows her hockey and can be pretty sarcastically vicious,” said Steve Kupietzky, who shares a pair of blue seats with Neal Lipschitz, who has had them for more than 40 years. “When you go further down, it’s a different culture.” Smoking was banned long ago, and beer sales now end well before the final buzzer. But one hallmark of the Blue Seats that endures is the salty language. One chant was targeted at those sitting closest to the ice in what were once red seats. It suggested that the working stiffs in the Blue Seats despised the fats cats below, but it was also tribal. Image Neal Lipschitz, a season-ticket holder of more than 40 years, and his grandson on Sunday. Credit Jason Szenes for The New York Times “I could’ve afforded the red seats, but I liked where I was sitting,” said Lipschitz, who brought his grandson Sam to opening night. Sonny Werblin, the former chairman of the Garden, got his share of abuse, as did referees and opposing players. The most notorious villain, though, was Denis Potvin, the former Islanders defenseman, who is derided in absentia, and seemingly in perpetuity, for breaking Ulf Nilsson’s ankle in 1979. The Blue Seaters have their favorites, too, including Nick Fotiu, the Staten Island native and Rangers enforcer for eight seasons. In addition to brawling with opponents, he tossed dozens of pucks into the stands every game and hurled more than a few of them up to the Blue Seats. “It started because I never got a puck when I was a kid, and I said if I ever made it to the N.H.L., I would throw some to the crowd,” Fotiu said, adding that he hit the ceiling occasionally. “I go up there now and I look down and say, How the heck did I get them to the fans up here?” Every so often, he meets a fan who claims to have one of his pucks. Of course, there are plenty of fervent fans who sit elsewhere. The Rangers’ longest-tenured season-ticket holder — 62 years and counting — sits in the club seats, and 31 fans have had season tickets for at least a half-century. Almost half of the team’s season-ticket holders have had seats for more than a decade. At the old Madison Square Garden on Eighth Avenue, the faithful sat in the end balcony, which had to be reached via separate staircases. “There was an ambience,” said Stan Fischler, the hockey historian and announcer who had season tickets in the end balcony starting in 1946. All upper decks, he said, “have something in common: they hate the referee.” At $47 apiece for season-ticket holders, the Blue Seats are a relative bargain. But fans who sit there insist the views are part of the draw, too, because you can see plays develop as the teams skate down the ice. And then there is the thought that there are plenty of others who would gladly take your seat. “Part of it will always be the money,” said Bob Schuler, who has had season tickets in the Blue Seats for more than 40 years. “But we know if we left, we could never get them again because they’d be snapped up in a minute.”

Madison Square Garden
Rangers
Ice hockey


Competitors Go to Extremes in World Yo-Yo Contest

Abstract: ORLANDO, Fla. — The art of flinging a yo-yo is almost unrecognizable to those who have not seen it done well in the past decade or so. At the recent World Yo-Yo Contest here, it was immediately obvious that yesterday’s forgotten up-and-down string toy is today’s “extreme sport you can carry in your pocket,” the yo-yoer Andrew Arvesen said. The seven championship disciplines — six more than when the annual contest began in 1992 — have nothing to do with walking the dog or rocking the baby. Some yo-yos are tied not to fingers but to counterweights like casino dice or rubber balls. Some yo-yos are flung intentionally from their string and are recaptured by nothing more than friction and a magician’s timing. The competitions are frenetic three-minute routines filled with tricks performed too fast to make sense of them all. The best bring the knowing fans to their feet, and will be seen and imitated by thousands, maybe millions, who watch the replays on the Internet. If that is not enough to demonstrate just how much things have changed for the yo-yo, consider that a title contender from Singapore dislocated his knee during a preliminary round and was taken away in an ambulance. The contest from July 31 to Aug. 2 drew 196 competitors from 20 countries, mostly teenage boys, who exuded an unthreatening and brainy counterculture vibe. They looked like skateboarders stuck inside on a rainy day. Many admitted to not quite fitting in back home, where no one seems to take the yo-yo as seriously as they do. Most dressed in black T-shirts and wore their hair long. They had callused middle fingers and forearms scarred by string marks, and often carried backpacks or hard cases filled with yo-yos, some costing hundreds of dollars. The younger competitors were chaperoned by proud parents or grandparents, willing to keep their distance to let the children convey cool. “The key is to make it seem hip to the kids but safe to the parents,” said Jack Ringca, a cherub-faced 30-year-old with dark hair and several hoop earrings. He leads the 70-member Duncan Crew, experts from nine countries charged with spreading yo-yo’s gospel. To that end, Ringca recently accompanied the punk-tinged Warped and the metal-edged Ozzy Osbourne concert tours. “Every subculture that has a current of cool under it, we try to harness that,” he said. Practicing contestants filled the corners of a ballroom and spread into the Rosen Plaza Hotel’s corridors, allowing enough space to send a yo-yo, or two, into orbit. Passing guests invariably watched in wonder. The Japanese routinely have the strongest contingent, winning most of the events with dizzying precision. The Americans have a reputation for favoring the big moves, even if it means that routines stall with knotted strings or fumbled yo-yos. Last year, the former national champion Augie Fash tossed his yo-yo so high that the string caught in the chandelier 20 feet above the stage. The yo-yo kept spinning. The fans loved it. The judges did not. But any national rivalries are just loose slipknots untangled by the Internet, where tricks are traded and friendships are tied. “They have the language of the string,” Gregory Cohen, the event’s organizer, said. It sounded like spin until Takeshi Matsuura, a pint-sized Japanese 11-year-old, lifted the crowd with his speed and showmanship. When he was pronounced the world champion of his division, the 11 other finalists converged and gleefully tossed him into the air. No translation necessary. It is not entirely clear how a sleepy little toy, mostly forgotten in the drawers of teenage boys everywhere, suddenly became revolutionary. But Dale Oliver is a good place to start. He was 15 in 1955 when he became a Duncan man, paid by the dominant yo-yo maker to demonstrate the toy for kids, mostly boys ages 8 to 15, still the target market. For decades, the traveling small-town yo-yo contests were little more than compulsories. “Twenty-five people doing the same 10 tricks?” Oliver said. “That’s boring.” He pushed the idea of freestyle routines. In 1992, he started the World Yo-Yo Contest and won it, which was indicative of yo-yo’s sliding pop-culture status. The toy had skipped most of a generation. But youngsters were roused by the advent of the ball-bearing transaxle, allowing the yo-yo to spin forever, or so it seemed. Tricks became easier. Attention spans lengthened. When the string was tied to a fixed axle, a yo-yo might spin for a few seconds before friction stopped it. “You could barely do ‘Rock the Baby’ and your yo-yo would be dying,” said Bill de Boisblanc, a national grandmaster who won the World Yo-Yo Contest in 1994, 1995 and 1997. There once were two basic styles: one hand and two hands, eventually split into contest divisions 1A and 2A. Some experimental yo-yoers, like Mark McBride, Jon Gates and Steve Brown, now in their 30s, stretched the possibilities. Now there are seven divisions, including one for artistic performance. Another is a mix of events, a sort of yo-yo triathlon. Each stretches the limits of physics. In 4A, the off-string division, some competitors cast the string, like a whip or a fishing rod, and wrapped it around the axle of an airborne yo-yo. The string-on-string friction was enough for the string to virtually tie itself and snare the spinning yo-yo. It was like watching a frog’s tongue zap a fly. Many of today’s best yo-yoers became interested after stumbling across videos of previously unimaginable tricks on the Internet. The yo-yo’s recent spurt is largely propelled by people learning on the Web. (Duncan’s sales are up 30 percent this year, said Mike Burke, its sales and marketing manager.) “It’s kind of looked down on to straight-out copy a trick,” said Jon Martin, 20, of Tampa, Fla. “So you just add on, which adds to the counterculture aspect. You create your own style.” The only limits are in the imagination. The 10 standard tricks from the old contests are as dated as quill pens. “If you do the same routine as the year before, you’ll probably finish 5 or 10 places lower, just because the level of play is improving so quickly,” said Fash, the chandelier-hooking yo-yoer. At the World Yo-Yo Contest, six judges tracked it all, mostly with their hands hidden under the table, each holding a counter. One thumb added points for great moves. The other thumb subtracted for mistakes. De Boisblanc, the head judge, oversaw the crew. At 67, he no longer officiates individual events. “I can’t keep up with all the tricks,” he said. One day, the crowd gathered largely to see Shinji Saito, the six-time winner in the 2A division, where competitors resemble people trying to fight out of an invisible box using a pair of spinning, looping rotors on strings. Saito, a slight 18-year-old with an outburst of curly hair, is widely considered the best yo-yoer in the world. His yo-yos spun feverishly as Saito used his body as a prop. They looped around his neck, his legs, his arms, his head. On his back, he tangled the two strings intentionally while keeping the yo-yos twirling. Saito flipped to his feet, then repeated the trick. He finished to a big ovation, his chest heaving. But experts spotted more mistakes than usual. At the awards presentation, Saito received a second-place trophy. A collective “ooh” swept through the ballroom. Takuma Yamamoto was named the winner, and the crowd cheered loud and long for the new champion.

World Yo-Yo Contest
Yo-Yos
Contests and Prizes
Orlando (Fla)


A Fear That the Cure Could Be Poison

Abstract: WASHINGTON — Even as the Federal Reserve grapples with the collapse of a speculative bubble in housing — the second speculative bust in less than a decade — is it at risk of repeating recent mistakes? One day after the Fed slashed its benchmark interest rate to head off a possible recession, a small minority of economists warned on Wednesday that the central bank was in danger of invoking the same remedies that it did after the bubble in dot-com stocks burst seven years ago. Though most experts agree that the economy is on the brink of a recession, and some even contend the recession has already begun, critics say the Fed’s attempted rescue looks uncomfortably similar to the aggressive rate reductions that aggravated the speculative bubble in housing. “We’ve literally forgotten that this is the very policy environment that led to the housing and mortgage problems in the first place,” said Michael T. Darda, an economist at MKM Partners, an investment firm in Greenwich, Conn. “We’re not going to see another housing bubble, but we could see more inflation.” Beyond the danger of higher inflation, some analysts warn that the Federal Reserve and its chairman, Ben S. Bernanke , could also lose credibility by appearing to act in knee-jerk response to plunging stock prices. “They risk being seen as bailing out equity investors,” wrote Adam S. Posen, deputy director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “It makes it look as though stock market fears are driving the Fed to action.” There are few signs yet of rising inflation, while the evidence is increasing that American economic growth has slowed to a crawl. Because a cooling economy usually damps inflation by reducing demand for goods and services, Fed officials are now far more worried about a painful slowdown than about inflation. But other central banks are not following the Fed’s lead. Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, strongly hinted on Wednesday that European policy makers would keep their benchmark rate unchanged. “Particularly in demanding times of significant market correction and turbulences, it is the responsibility of the central bank to solidly anchor inflation expectations to avoid additional volatility,” Mr. Trichet told the European Parliament in Brussels. The Bank of England is not expected to reduce rates quickly either. European central bankers face challenges that are different from those the Fed confronts. Few European countries have a housing collapse even remotely comparable to that in the United States, though many European banks are suffering big losses on their holdings of American mortgage-backed securities. But Mr. Trichet’s comments sent a chill through stock markets on both sides of the Atlantic on Wednesday. Stock prices in the United States endured another day of brutal swings, swooning badly in the morning and early afternoon and then skyrocketing back up at the end of the day. The Dow Jones industrial average closed up nearly 300 points. For Mr. Bernanke, the biggest risk now is that financial markets will become paralyzed by fear and that investors, corporations and consumers will pull back on their investing and spending, setting in motion a spiral of economic decline. Many economists argue that Fed policy makers were entirely justified in reducing the overnight Federal funds rate by three-quarters of a percentage point on Tuesday, to 3.5 percent, and investors are betting that the Fed will lower the short-term rate another half of a point at a policy meeting next week. “Credit conditions have not gotten any easier,” said Robert J. Barbera, chief economist at ITG Hoenig, an economic forecasting firm. Because of the continuing anxiety about soured mortgages and the need for banks to keep large volumes of loans on their own balance sheets, Mr. Barbera said, the credit crisis is extending beyond subprime mortgages to many kinds of business borrowers. But there are hints that the Fed’s rush to reduce interest rates has already had a slight impact on inflation expectations. Mr. Bernanke and other Fed officials contend that inflation expectations are crucial to the actual course of inflation. Fed officials closely scrutinize two measures of popular expectations. One, the University of Michigan’s monthly survey of consumers, offers reassuring evidence that consumers’ long-run expectations have not changed much, even though consumers do expect higher prices over the next year or two — a reflection of concern about higher energy prices. The other measure is the difference between the prices of normal Treasury securities and an inflation-adjusted type, known as Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS. The difference in prices is thought to reflect investors’ expectations about inflation. Brian Sack, senior economist at Macroeconomic Advisers in Washington, said the premium on inflation-protected five-year Treasury securities widened slightly after the Fed announced its rate cut on Tuesday. The increase was small, to 2.52 percent from 2.47 percent, and Mr. Sack cautioned that it could simply reflect market noise. But he said the implicit inflation premium was at the upper range of its level in the past two years. “One of the risks inherent in aggressive easing is the possibility of dislodging inflation expectations,” Mr. Sack said. Mr. Posen of the Peterson economics institute predicted that the Fed’s new policy of lower interest rates would provide “too much rather than too little stimulus” and help push inflation noticeably higher in 2009 and 2010. But Mr. Posen added that the Fed was facing undeniable pressures to act decisively against a potentially serious downturn. Mr. Bernanke and other Fed officials are well aware of the risks, and of criticism by some experts that the Fed’s cheap-money policies from 2001 to 2004 may have aggravated the bubble in housing. Indeed, Mr. Bernanke resisted demands from Wall Street to reduce interest rates faster. As recently as three weeks ago, the Federal Reserve’s official stance was that the risks of slowing growth were still roughly balanced against the risk of higher inflation. If the Fed continues to lower interest rates, as many Wall Street analysts predict, Mr. Bernanke is nonetheless likely to absorb as many lessons as possible from its experience after the dot-com bubble burst. Frederic S. Mishkin, a Fed governor with close ties to Mr. Bernanke, suggested in a speech in August what one of those lessons might be. If housing prices plunged, Mr. Mishkin said, the Fed should cut rates quickly and substantially. But once the economy begins to recover, he continued, the Fed should raise them back to normal almost as quickly.

Housing
Interest Rates
United States Economy
Federal Reserve System
Economic Conditions and Trends
Recession and Depression
Bernanke Ben S


Faulty Scaffold Repair Preceded 47-Floor Fall, Investigator Says

Abstract: A device that holds a cable in place for a scaffold was installed improperly last year, three weeks before the scaffolding gave way and sent two window washers plunging 47 floors on the Upper East Side, a federal investigator said on Monday. One of the two men was killed in the fall. The explanation behind the accident was the first by an official from one of three agencies that have been looking into why the scaffold gave way. The investigator, Richard Mendelson, the area director in Manhattan for the Occupational Safety and Health Administration , also said that the accident could have been prevented. He proposed fining the company that employed the window washers and the company that installed the scaffold a total of more than $40,000. He issued citations on Friday accusing both companies of violating federal workplace safety standards. Another agency looking into the accident, the State Labor Department, issued violations on Monday to, among others, the company that installed the scaffold. A Labor Department spokesman said the agency’s findings centered on “lack of maintenance and lack of training” for the window washers. Mr. Mendelson said the scaffold gave way under the weight of the two window washers as soon as they stepped onto it on the morning of Dec. 7. The 16-foot-wide rig was hanging near the top of the building at 265 East 66th Street, near Second Avenue. Edgar Moreno, 30, died when the rig came loose and smashed into an alley beside the building. His brother, Alcides, 37, survived, which doctors said was a miracle in itself. He was released from the hospital after six weeks and 16 operations. He could say a few words, and might well walk again. That was in mid-January. On Monday, Alcides Moreno’s wife, Rosario, stood outside their pistachio-colored house in Linden, N.J., and smiled as she reported that he could indeed walk. She said that he could now move his arms. But she added, “Alcides is taking it slow.” She said, “He’s not all there” adding that he was also still mourning the loss of his brother. Mr. Mendelson said, “These men lacked the knowledge and ability to protect themselves against falls and other hazards.” OSHA proposed fines of $24,000 against City Wide Window Cleaning, the service that employed the Morenos, and $21,000 against Tractel, which had repaired the scaffold. OSHA issued five citations against City Wide for what it called serious violations. Three carried proposed fines of $7,000 apiece, the highest the agency can impose. One was for lack of a system to protect against falls — cables that would have left the Morenos dangling at the top of the building when the scaffold gave way. Another citation against City Wide was for failing to train employees in how to inspect the scaffold, and for not training them to wear “personal protective equipment” before they stepped onto the rig. Mr. Mendelson said, “All workers need to have an independent lifeline so if something goes wrong” with the mechanism that raises and lowers the scaffold, “they don’t plummet to their deaths.” He said that with such a lifeline, “they would have been left hanging six or eight feet below the parapet, and it would have been a rescue job for the Fire Department — and not much else.” A third citation had to do with “crimps” on the scaffold, which were supposed to anchor the wire cables and which were also the subject of one of the citations OSHA issued to Tractel. That citation says the crimps were improperly installed. Mr. Mendelson said Tractel had replaced the crimps that had come with the cables when it repaired the rig three weeks before the accident. He said the crimps had to be replaced because the first ones apparently did not fit. “They had to cut them off” and fashion new ones, Mr. Mendelson said, referring to Tractel employees. Had the replacements been done correctly, he said, they would have prevented the rig from falling. OSHA issued two other citations to Tractel for the crimps’ failure to support the scaffold and for not inspecting the crimps. Each company has 15 days to contest the fines before an independent review commission. A call to City Wide was not returned on Monday. A call to Tractel’s office in Queens was referred to the company’s headquarters in Scarborough, Ontario, where the chief executive, Thierry Bertrand, said, “Right at the moment, we are fully investigating, so I can’t tell you anything on that matter.”


A Lot of Questions Will Be Answered in Tuesday’s Primary

Abstract: Ross Ramsey, the managing editor of The Texas Tribune, writes a regular column for the Tribune. Tuesday’s long-delayed Texas primary won’t decide the Republican presidential nomination. That would have been in play during the regularly scheduled March primary, but redistricting litigation moved the date back, and the thrill is gone. But the primary will decide legislative and other nominations, and it could answer some questions that aren’t even on the ballot. Q. Who wins the establishment-versus-insurgent battle in the Republican Party ? A. The Tea Party sneaked up and walloped so many legislators in 2010 that the idea of a battle for the soul of the Republican Party has become unshakable. It is the question of the year, which means it was a big deal in the last election and makes for easy, if sometimes flaky, analysis. Texas voters will get several swings at this, starting with the Republican race for United States Senate. Q. Will new redistricting maps cost any incumbents their seats? A. Watch State Representative Wayne Christian, Republican of Center, who is running in a six-county district with four counties he has never represented. Or State Representative James White, Republican of Hillister, who has two new counties in his district and a fellow incumbent running against him. Or State Representative Chuck Hopson, Republican of Jacksonville, whose district’s newest county has enough people in it to serve as a serious geographic threat to his continued service. Or United States Representatives Kenny Marchant and Joe Barton, both of the Dallas area, who face insurgent challengers in redrawn districts. Redistricting protects some incumbents and political parties from harm while putting others on the hit list. Q. What kinds of candidates win in open seats? A. A variation on the Republican-versus-Republican idea, but it is not always about party. The new Congressional District 33 sprawls across the Dallas-Tarrant county line. That is a geographical divide of historical significance. The district, whose population has voted strongly for Democrats in the last two statewide elections, has large black and Hispanic populations — another divide. The field is big, with State Representative Marc Veasey of Fort Worth and former State Representative Domingo Garcia of Dallas the perceived front-runners among 15 candidates, and a runoff is nearly certain. Another example: In C.D. 25, Republicans are battling over a remarkable splotch on the map that runs from south of Austin north to Fort Worth. It is another geographic battle, another likely runoff and another lens into what is going on inside the political parties in 2012. Q. Does Gov. Rick Perry’s busy endorsement tour put anyone over the top? Does it bury anyone? A. The political adage is that endorsements do more for the endorsers than the endorsees, but they make the endorsees feel better. Is that so? Do the governor’s post-presidential-campaign words of support still offer comfort or attract supporters? Q. Do the four Republican open seats in the State Senate go to movement conservatives? A. Four Republican senators decided not to seek re-election this year, and the races to replace them feature all varieties of conservatives. It is possible the new folks will be more conservative than the senators they are replacing. It is possible they will not. The answer will help determine what the next Texas Senate is like. Q. How about the nobodies? A. They are on the ballot. Near the top, even. But their fates are largely out of their hands. Statewide candidates for the Railroad Commission and for the state’s highest courts put themselves up for the approval of voters who, to be charitable, know more about last week’s “American Idol” contestants. They win, or not, on other cues: gender, race, interesting names, whatever. Incumbents are sent home. Strange candidates win. This is a funny way to apply for a job. Q. Who will show up? A. Will older Texans — the ones who vote in every bond, school board, City Council and constitutional amendment election — own the day? Or will this election fall under the influence of activists? Then there is the geography of the election. Dallas and Fort Worth and the areas around them have a disproportionate number of competitive local races that could draw more voters and give the area a disproportionate voice in statewide contests. Q. What about Democrats? Is there life on the other side of the political ledger? A. Texas Democrats have compiled a dismal record that renders them easy to ignore in most state races. Once upon a time, that was the story of Texas Republicans, and they eventually came out of it. The primaries won’t necessarily tell the story of whether the Democrats can do the same, but they may reveal a decent candidate here and there, and maybe even someone who can take a Republican in November, if circumstances are right. Q. How do the rich folks do? A. Texas is wide open when it comes to campaign finance. In state races, anybody can give as much as they want to any candidate, so long as it is correctly reported. Corporate and union money is restricted, but there are also ways to work that money into the equation. Now the federal races are catching up, with “ super PACs ” playing heavily in the race for United States Senate and in some of the state’s Congressional races. All that is left to sort out is if — and how — the big money changed things this year.

Texas
Republican Party
Elections
Primaries and Caucuses


Zurich Insurance Examining Bid for RSA of Britain

Abstract: LONDON — Zurich Insurance Group said on Tuesday that it was considering making an offer for its smaller British rival RSA Insurance Group. One of Europe’s largest insurers, Zurich said it had made its interest public in response to “market speculation” that it was evaluating a bid for RSA. “There can be no assurance that any offer will be made,” the Swiss insurer said in a news release . Under British takeover law, Zurich has until Aug. 25 to make a firm offer for RSA or walk away for up to six months. In a news release on Tuesday, RSA said that it “has not held talks with or received a proposal from Zurich” and advised shareholders to take no action. Shares of RSA rose 14.1 percent to 499.70 pence, or about $7.76, on the news in midday trading in London on Tuesday. RSA, based in London, offers a variety of insurance products to consumers and businesses, including home, automobile, liability and marine insurance. The company is worth about £5 billion, based on its market capitalization. The insurer employs about 19,000 people worldwide and wrote £7.47 billion in net premiums in 2014. RSA brought in Stephen Hester, a former chief executive of Royal Bank of Scotland, as chief executive in February 2014. In December 2013, the insurer’s top executive quit after a capital shortfall in its Irish operations. At R.B.S., Mr. Hester took the helm after a government bailout in 2008. Since joining the insurer, Mr. Hester has sold businesses and raised capital in order to bolster RSA’s balance sheet. RSA was created in 1996 by the merger of two of the largest British insurers, Royal Insurance and Sun Alliance. Founded in 1872, Zurich Insurance offers general and life insurance across a variety of product lines. It has about 55,000 employees in more than 170 countries and had net written premiums of $48.7 billion in 2014.

Zurich Insurance Group
Stephen Hester
Mergers and Acquisitions
Personal finance
Great Britain
Switzerland


Poor Decisions Add to Knicks’ Dysfunction

Abstract: GREENBURGH, N.Y. — Coach Mike Woodson watched the game film with his players Tuesday, reviewing their many blunders. The foul they opted not to give. The defense they refused to play. The timeout they decided not to take. It was ugly and demoralizing and necessary. “We’re always going to watch tape,” Woodson said, “and I never let anything go unnoticed.” Nobody has accused the Knicks of playing top-notch basketball, but for a team that was already being lampooned for its all-consuming struggles, the final 15 seconds of Monday night’s loss to the Washington Wizards provided another round of punch lines, the jokes more robust than ever. The Knicks keep finding new and unusual ways to lose, and as the pressure continues to mount — on the team in general, and on Woodson in particular — the danger is that the final possessions of their 102-101 loss have become a defining moment for them, their dysfunction plain to see. Where was the help defense on Bradley Beal’s go-ahead layup with 6.9 seconds remaining? Why did Woodson refuse to call a timeout? Why did Carmelo Anthony slow his dribble to a crawl before he attempted a running 25-footer at the buzzer? Why are the Knicks determined to make things so ridiculously hard on themselves? “Bad coaching,” Woodson said. “We made a lot of mistakes coming down the stretch.” The atmosphere is pressurized in New York, of course, where every late-game decision is dissected by a cast of thousands. Woodson has been short-handed. Tyson Chandler could return Wednesday against the Milwaukee Bucks after missing 20 games with a broken right leg. But the Knicks will still be without Pablo Prigioni (toe), Raymond Felton (hamstring), Kenyon Martin (abdominal strain) and Amar’e Stoudemire (knees). “Guys are playing hard, and they’re trying,” Mike Dunleavy Sr., a former N.B.A. coach and player, said in a telephone interview. “All coaches go through this at some point in time. It’s part of the business.” But while Woodson has been able to shield himself after previous losses by citing injuries and poor shooting, the Knicks had ample opportunities to win Monday’s game. It had nothing to do with injuries. It had nothing to do with poor shooting. It had everything to do with questionable decisions. Image Mike Woodson did not call a timeout after Beal’s layup. Credit Barton Silverman/The New York Times After the Knicks’ Beno Udrih, who had replaced Prigioni, sank one of two free throws for a 1-point lead with 24 seconds remaining, the Wizards called a timeout. With Iman Shumpert defending John Wall, Wizards Coach Randy Wittman expected that Beal would have an advantage against Udrih, who had labored against him throughout the fourth quarter. So Wittman drew up a play for Beal to use a high screen set by Marcin Gortat. The Knicks had a foul to give, and Woodson said he advised his players to use it, the idea being that the foul would force the Wizards to inbounds the ball again and reset their offense. Beyond that, though, Woodson expected Beal or Wall to come off a screen set by Gortat. Woodson wanted his players to double-team the ball handler and pressure him into passing to Gortat. The Knicks had three timeouts, but Woodson did not address whether to call one in the event the Wizards scored. “I think we were banking on getting our stop,” Shumpert said. “We usually get stops.” It was a liberal use of the word “usually” for a member of a 7-17 team. In any case, Wittman had Wall bring the ball upcourt, more or less as a decoy. With 12 seconds left, Wall handed it off to Beal about 35 feet from the basket. Beal surveyed the scene. The Knicks’ defense did not feature a smorgasbord of lockdown defenders. Andrea Bargnani had been assigned to guard Gortat, and sure enough, Udrih was on Beal. In fairness, Woodson had few options. Martin was sidelined with his injury, and Metta World Peace has been hindered by a bad knee. Beal said he knew the screen from Gortat was coming, and he also knew the Knicks would try to get him to give up the ball. So his instinct was to reject the screen and drive baseline if the lane was clear. It was only a matter of seeing what was available to him, he said. So with 10 seconds left and Beal dribbling outside the 3-point arc, near the left sideline, Gortat curled from the baseline to position himself for a screen near the left elbow. Udrih pointed to his right, either to signal to his teammates that he might need help if Beal drove baseline or that he was trying to send Beal in that direction. It was also unclear why Udrih chose not to foul Beal when he had the chance. Udrih did not address reporters after the game, and he was unavailable after Tuesday’s practice. “He could’ve grabbed him and wrapped him up, because we all knew we had a foul,” Woodson said, adding that the coaching staff uses “color codes” to signal certain defensive sets to the players. “We just have to learn from it. When we’re in that position again, just make sure we get it right.” Image Carmelo Anthony missed a 25-footer at the buzzer. Credit Barton Silverman/The New York Times The Wizards seemed baffled, too. When Beal turned the corner and drove the baseline, he discovered that no one was standing in the way. “There was absolutely nobody there,” said Beal, whose layup gave the Wizards the lead with 6.9 seconds left. Gortat said: “I think they got lost. I don’t think they were on the same page because Beno sent Bradley baseline. I don’t know what they were trying to do.” What followed for the Knicks was even more dysfunction. In hindsight, Woodson said, he erred by not taking a timeout. It would have given him a chance to draw up a play, and it also would have advanced the ball to midcourt. Instead, several players appeared to look to the bench as Udrih inbounded the ball to Anthony. On Tuesday, Woodson recalled how, as the coach of the Atlanta Hawks, he would forgo timeouts in similar situations and let Joe Johnson create for himself. Johnson liked to take advantage of defenses that were unsettled. “Was I thinking that at the time?” Woodson said. “Well, when Beno stepped out and Melo begged for it and he threw it to him, I didn’t stop the play. I let it go on. And I should have called a timeout and just taken it out of their hands and advanced the ball. But I didn’t.” P. J. Carlesimo, who was the interim coach of the Nets last season, said deciding whether to use a timeout in that situation was always difficult. “If you call one, you give your opponent a chance to make substitutions and set up their defense,” Carlesimo said. “Mike’s taking the heat, but it’s not as black-and-white as everyone is making it out to be.” Woodson was only being judged harshly because the play did not work. Anthony dribbled the ball up the court — fast, then slow, then fast again, then straight into a double team outside the 3-point arc. He was left with little choice but to launch a running jumper that glanced off the bottom of the backboard. So while it was a creative way for the Knicks to lose, at least the final scene felt familiar. The buzzer sounded, and the crowd booed.


After a Photo Circulates, Chris Christie Explains His M&M’s Strategy

Abstract: In a political season that has seemed to feature a fresh outrage every day, the way Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey eats his M&M’s would not really seem to rank highly. But after a photograph circulated of Mr. Christie pouring a bag of the candies into an empty M&M’s box at an N.C.A.A. men’s basketball tournament game in Philadelphia, Twitter went all atwitter. Chris Christie pouring his bag of M&M’s into a bigger bag of MORE M&M’s is a savage and perplexing move pic.twitter.com/xynYXfswGc — Pete Blackburn (@PeteBlackburn) March 26, 2016 Some applauded . Some were mean . Some were quizzical . And others, for some reason, were outraged . On Thursday, Mr. Christie addressed the bag-to-box question. Appearing on the sports radio show “Boomer and Carton,” he said he could not fathom why his candy eating habits had received such scrutiny. “Why would you go bag to box?” asked the host. “Just eat ’em out of the bag!” “You know why?” Mr. Christie answered. “Because it’s easier to hold the box than to hold the bag.” But the host pressed on, saying the governor’s approach was “an interesting maneuver.” “You get the box, you open the box, there’s a bag inside the box,” Mr. Christie explained. “Why they do it that way I have no idea, but you open up the bag, you pour the bag into the box so it’s easier to hold.” The next question from the host was logical, if not more wisely directed at the company that manufactures M&M’s, Mars Chocolate. Why don’t they just sell the candy in the box? Isn’t the bag superfluous? “Listen, I run New Jersey, not M&M-Mars. I have no idea,” Mr. Christie said. Mars, as the host noted, is based in Mount Olive, N.J. “It’s a wonderful corporate citizen,” the governor said. “Shut ’em down!” the host joked. Not likely. As the photo made clear, Mr. Christie is a fan of M&M’s, whether in a bag or a box.

Chris Christie
New Jersey
Candy
Mars Candy


Noisy Debut for a Movie at Comic-Con

Abstract: LOS ANGELES — Picturehouse, a distributor of art films that helped corner an Oscar for Marion Cotillard as Edith Piaf in “La Vie en Rose” before folding in 2008, will come screaming back to life at the Comic-Con International fantasy convention next week in San Diego. And it will arrive with something to wake the undead: clips from its new 3-D Imax movie, “Metallica Through the Never,” plus a musical event — 500 free tickets to hear Metallica, live — that is promising to transform an annual fan gathering not known in recent years for its musical offerings. Piaf, this is not. The Metallica movie, Picturehouse’s inaugural project, is outsize and heavily amplified. “We see it as being very disruptive,” said Bob Berney, a film executive who is clearly out to create a more ferocious version of Picturehouse. When he spoke of disruption, Mr. Berney referred partly to an unusual release plan: “Metallica Through the Never” will open only on large-format Imax screens when it begins its commercial run on Sept. 27, before moving to hundreds of additional theaters a week later. Creatively, moreover, the film is an exercise in controlled chaos. Directed by Nimród Antal, known for action thrillers like “Predators” and “Armored,” it was written by members of the band. The film combines video of a Canadian concert, in which stage props and equipment collapsed around them, with a scripted fantasy about a young roadie, played by Dane DeHaan, who skitters through what might be the apocalypse. Given that, the choice of Comic-Con seems appropriate. With its 125,000 or so often-costumed attendees, the gathering, which runs from a preview evening on July 17 through July 21 at the San Diego Convention Center, is always vaguely apocalyptic. But a live concert by one of the world’s less-restrained metal bands — neither Mr. Berney nor Comic-Con’s sponsors have yet said how tickets will be doled out to the lucky few — should add fresh shock value to a convention where zombies routinely clog the restrooms. The usual superheroes and film studio fantasies will be on display, of course. Movie promotions in the convention center’s cavernous Hall H are expected to include the cast and filmmakers of “The Wolverine,” from 20th Century Fox; “RoboCop” and “The Amazing Spider-Man 2,” from Sony Pictures Entertainment; “Ender’s Game” and “The Hunger Games: Catching Fire,” from Lionsgate; and “Thor: The Dark World” and “Captain America: The Winter Soldier,” from Disney’s prolific Marvel Entertainment unit, among others. Along with all the comics and fan paraphernalia, there will also be a tidal wave of television presentations. The Cartoon Network’s Adult Swim service will bring at least 14 shows, including “Robot Chicken” and “Mr. Pickles,” while Warner Brothers Television, home of “The Vampire Diaries” and “Almost Human,” will have 17. Image Bob Berney said he and his wife, Jeanne, who is a partner in the new Picturehouse, are rebuilding the company in stages. Credit John Parra/Getty Images for Sundance Channel Yet music has remained something of an oddity at a convention that specializes in the odd. Asked last week to pinpoint some musical highlights in the convention’s 44-year history, David Glanzer, Comic-Con’s director of marketing and public relations, could immediately think of only one. That would be a 2005 performance by Jack Black and Kyle Gass as the rock duo Tenacious D. (It was called “the show that never happened,” because recording, in keeping with Comic-Con practice, was forbidden.) In truth, music has occasionally popped up in and around Comic-Con. This year, for instance, it will be the subject of a Thursday morning discussion among some film composers, including Marco Beltrami (“The Wolverine”), and directors, including Shane Black (“Iron Man 3”) about the gentle art of scoring for superheroes. But it has not been an integral part of the fun, as it has at the South by Southwest festival in Texas. And it has rarely been an attention-getter of the sort Mr. Berney is planning for a Metallica presentation that intends to reach beyond the usual patter about lifelong reverence for the art of the comic book and such. “When we’ve been down there, it’s always been the same, they tend to be the same panels,” said Mr. Berney, echoing a complaint that has become common among many who frequent the convention. In the past, Mr. Berney stopped in while promoting films like “Pan’s Labyrinth,” a sophisticated fantasy that Picturehouse, in its earlier incarnation, released in 2006. Directed by Guillermo del Toro, the film received six Oscar nominations. The old Picturehouse, which was a joint venture between Time Warner’s HBO and New Line Cinema units, certainly had a reputation for avoiding dreary sameness. Still, its risks did not always pay. One of its more daring bets, “Fur: An Imaginary Portrait of Diane Arbus,” for instance, had well under $1 million in domestic ticket sales when it was released in 2006. This time, however, Mr. Berney said he and his wife, Jeanne, who is a partner in the new Picturehouse, are rebuilding the company in stages, and are working on just a bit more than a shoestring, as film distributors go, while they look for backers. The first step, he said, is to open “Metallica Through the Never” with little in the way of paid advertising, relying instead on the social media following that has built up around the band, which was started in 1981 by its drummer, Lars Ulrich, and the guitarist-vocalist James Hetfield. The next steps, Mr. Berney said, will involve adding a home entertainment deal to complement an existing arrangement with Netflix, and raising investment funds to support new films, beginning with “The Great Gilly Hopkins,” to be directed by Stephen Herek, based on a novel by Katherine Paterson. Along the way, added Mr. Berney, the plan is also to make some music that even the zombies can’t ignore. “It should be part of Comic-Con,” he said.

Movies
3-D
Music
Comic Con
Metallica Music Group
advertising,marketing


Index Shows an Improvement in Home Prices

Abstract: In a convincing sign that the worst housing slump of modern times is coming to an end, prices are starting to rise in nearly all of the nation’s large cities. The trend, displayed in newly released data for June, is both pronounced and wide-ranging. It is affecting the high-priced coastal cities, with a 3.8 percent jump for the month in San Francisco and a 2.6 percent rise in Boston; the industrial Midwest, with Cleveland prices up 4.2 percent; and even the epicenter of the crash, the Sun Belt, with Phoenix homes up 1.1 percent. These numbers are not seasonally adjusted. Eighteen of the 20 cities tracked by Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed improvement in June, up from eight in May, four in April and only one in March. “When I saw these numbers, I danced a jig,” said Karl E. Case, a co-developer of the index and an economics professor at Wellesley College. “It appears that the housing market is stabilizing quicker than people thought it would.” Further confirmation that the market is recovering came in the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s house price index, which was also released Tuesday. It rose 0.5 percent in June after a revised increase of 0.6 percent in May. The government index is based on price information from mortgages acquired by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government’s housing finance arms, which means it has fewer high-priced houses than Case-Shiller. As recently as six months ago, there was widespread expectation that housing prices, which were already down nearly a third from their peaks, would tumble another 10 percent. That decline would most likely have prompted another round of foreclosures, perhaps helping to delay a recovery in the broader economy. Now, said Mr. Case, it is likely such a grim event will be averted. “Banks will stabilize their balance sheets more quickly. The toxic paper will get written off more quickly,” he said. “That’s a big, big deal.” The news comes on the heels of the National Association of Realtors’ report on July sales volume, which showed a 5 percent rise above the pace in July 2008. It was the first year-over-year gain since the market peaked in November 2005. The improving real estate market is a combination of many factors: federal and local government assistance for first-time buyers, receding fears that an economic depression is at hand, low interest rates and, above all, cheaper prices than have been seen in many cities for a long time. Jessi Havel, a library technician, and Ben Meyer, a university faculty assistant, love San Francisco but thought they were condemned to rent forever. Then friends pointed out that their $2,000 in rent would cover quite a bit of mortgage in a city where prices were back to where they were in mid-2000. “It seemed like this was our one and only chance to buy here,” said Ms. Havel, 30. So in June they did, paying $456,000 for a cottage in the up-and-coming neighborhood of Mission Terrace. Ms. Havel and Mr. Meyer benefited from a city loan program for first-time buyers. Ilse Cordoni, president of the San Francisco Association of Realtors, said such assistance, whether city, state or federal, was providing crucial support. Loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration, originally designed for the working poor, used to be practically unknown in San Francisco, Ms. Cordoni said. Now they are popular, since they require only a 3 percent down payment. “Government help is really helping,” she said. For all the improvement reflected in the new Case-Shiller report, housing prices are still down sharply in comparison to last year’s figures. The increases reported on Tuesday show up when June’s transaction prices are compared with those of the month before. But when this June is compared with June of 2008, the 20-city composite index is still down 15.4 percent — an improvement from the 19.1 price decline of last winter. Average home prices are now at the level they were in early 2003. The Case-Shiller index, the most closely watched home price index, is usually reported without any seasonal adjustments. Since home-buying traditionally is strongest in the spring, that prompted criticism with last month’s report that the long-awaited improvements were less hopeful than they seemed. But even on a seasonally adjusted basis, the index was up 0.7 percent in June. It was the first such increase since May 2006. Instead of 18 cities increasing in June, on a seasonally adjusted basis only 15 did. The two best-performing cities, Cleveland and San Francisco, were up 3.3 percent and 3.1 percent respectively after adjusting. Michael T. Darda, chief economist of MKM Partners, called the June report “highly encouraging.” “The interaction between falling home prices with high household debt loads was the trigger point for the 2007-8 financial crisis, resulting in both the longest and deepest recession in postwar history,” he wrote in a research note. “Now, though, it would appear that the tide is turning.” S.& P. also released on Tuesday the national Case-Shiller index, which covers a sample of homes across the country, including rural areas and smaller cities. That index increased 2.9 percent in the second quarter, indicating that the recovery extended beyond the urban centers. It was the first quarter-over-quarter increase in three years. In the 20-city index, the New York metro area ranked far back in the pack, increasing only 0.4 percent in June. The two cities that declined were Detroit and Las Vegas, among the most economically troubled places in the country. Las Vegas prices are now down 54.3 percent from their peak. Detroit has fallen 45.3 percent. After the back-to-back increases in the 20-city composite for May and June, there is little doubt that the market has picked up. The debate is now shifting to whether the upturn can be sustained. Analysts note that some sales are probably due to a rush to buy in advance of the December expiration of an $8,000 first-time buyers’ tax credit. The National Association of Realtors is lobbying to have the credit extended or broadened, but neither is a sure thing. “The tax credit may be shifting sales forward,” said Patrick Newport, United States economist for IHS Global Insight. “There are also unintended effects that could hurt the market. It’s stimulating construction, but we have too many homes already.” Foreclosures are another big unknown. Prices were pushed down last year by an abundance of bank-owned properties hitting the market. This spring, fewer foreclosures have prompted bidding wars. But with unemployment nearing 10 percent, there are probably more foreclosures to come.

Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller Home Price Index