Modeling the evolution of operating systems: An empirical study
In this paper, we report on an empirical experiment where we observe, record and analyze the evolution of selected operating systems over the past decades, and derive a statistical model that captures relevant evolutionary laws. This model is derived by quantifying relevant attributes of operating systems, including intrinsic technical factors and time-dependent environmental factors. We use this model to understand past evolution and learn to predict future evolution, not only of individual operating systems, but also of operating systems features. We combine the insights gained from this study with insights gained from other similar empirical experiments to attempt to derive evolutionary laws for software technology trends.
operating systems software engineering trends tech watch unix solaris sun/os bsd windows ms-dos mac os linux netware hp_ux gnu hurd ibm aix compaq/dec vms os/2