More discussions for granger causality and new causality measures
Granger causality (GC) has been widely applied in economics and neuroscience to reveal causality influence of time series. In our previous paper (Hu etal., in IEEE Trans on Neural Netw, 22(6), pp. 829844, 2011), we proposed new causalities in time and frequency domains and particularly focused on new causality in frequency domain by pointing out the shortcomings/limitations of GC or Granger-alike causality metrics and the advantages of new causality. In this paper we continue our previous discussions and focus on new causality and GC or Granger-alike causality metrics in time domain. Although one strong motivation was introduced in our previous paper (Hu etal., in IEEE Trans on Neural Netw, 22(6), pp. 829844, 2011) we here present additional motivation for the proposed new causality metric and restate the previous motivation for completeness. We point out one property of conditional GC in time domain and the shortcomings/limitations of conditional GC which cannot reveal the real strength of the directional causality among three time series. We also show the shortcomings/limitations of directed causality (DC) or normalize DC for multivariate time series and demonstrate it cannot reveal real causality at all. By calculating GC and new causality values for an example we demonstrate the influence of one of the time series on the other is linearly increased as the coupling strength is linearly increased. This fact further supports reasonability of new causality metric. We point out that larger instantaneous correlation does not necessarily mean larger true causality (e.g., GC and new causality), or vice versa. Finally we conduct analysis of statistical test for significance and asymptotic distribution property of new causality metric by illustrative examples.
granger causality new causality linear regression model prediction