Research on the relationship between mishap risk and time margin for control: a case study for carrier landing of aircraft
The engineering intuitive judgments indicate that the risk levels of many mishaps, including the carrier-landing mishap, are directly related to the time available to correct the abnormal system state. The meaning of time margin and its relationship with the mishap risks is described in this paper. A conceptual model of risk is built, including three variables: mishap probability, mishap severity, and time margin. In a case study of the carrier-landing process, the relationship between mishap risk and carrier-landing time margin for control was investigated using data from 1,978 samples. Statistical analysis shows that in most cases (80% approximately), both mishap probability and mishap severity of carrier landing are negatively correlated with the time margin. Based on these findings, the minimum time margin pilots have to correct possible deviations are quantified in order to minimize the risk during carrier-landing processes.
mishap time margin system safety risk assessment aircraft carrier-landing