Corporate valuation, capital structure and risk management: A stochastic DCF approach
In this article we discuss a general stochastic framework for designing corporate investment, financing and risk management strategies for financially constrained firms. The strategy entailing the highest benefits for shareholders is considered to be the optimal strategy. This paper focuses on a simulation of present value distributions of the capital positions of a company, explicitly taking into account the risk of fluctuations in future cash flow as well as the risk of insolvency. The present value distribution of equity is used as a central instrument for evaluation of shareholder benefits. Expected present values are also computed. The investment and financing policy of the company pursued at the time of the valuation is reflected in certain global model parameters, which themselves influence the future profit distribution policy of the company. The main parameters are the extent of debt, the annual debt funding requirements, the average earnings power of the company  expressed as an expected annual return on total capital  and the risk of annual earnings  expressed as the standard deviation of the annual return on total capital. An explicit illustration of the volatility risk and default risk seems not only to be a suitable way of illustrating the impact of capital structure on corporate value. Such an depiction may also provide answers to the question of the link between hedging and enterprise value. This paper highlights the fact that investment, finance and hedging strategies should go hand in hand.
simulation default risk investment analysis risk analysis uncertainty modelling