Identifying parametric controls and dependencies in integrated assessment models using global sensitivity analysis
We present Sobol' sensitivity analyses of three climate policy scenarios. Parameter interactions are significant, evolve over time, and vary by policy. Key interactions and sensitivities misclassified in expert elicited assessments. Climate damages not sufficiently sensitive to climate/carbon cycle parameters. Costs of aggressive mitigation controlled by participation and renewables.
integrated assessment model global sensitivity analysis sobol' method model diagnostics climate change