Metamodels and emergent behaviour in models of conflict
In this paper, we develop a simplified mathematical model (a metamodel) of a simulation model of conflict, based on ideas drawn from the analysis of more general physical systems, such as found in fluid dynamics modelling. We show that there is evidence from the analysis of historical conflicts to support the kind of emergent behaviour implied by this approach. We then apply this approach to the development of a metamodel of a particular complexity based simulation model of conflict (ISAAC), developed for the US Marine Corps. The approach we have illustrated here is very generic, and is applicable to any simulation model which has complex interactions similar to those found in fluid dynamic modelling, or in simulating the emergent behaviour of large numbers of simple systems which interact with each other locally.
metamodel emergent behaviour conflict simulation complexity