A Bayesian causal map for inflation analysis: The case of Turkey
This paper proposes the use of Bayesian Causal Maps (BCMs) to analyze the complex structure of inflation in Turkey. In this study, a model of inflation is initially structured using a cognitive mapping technique; the dependent probabilities of the concepts are then calculated based on the detailed analysis of past data. Finally, a BCM is used to analyze the complex structure of inflation in Turkey. As a result, it will be possible to see the structure of the inflation model and to understand the basic consequences of any strategic change that may occur in the system.
bayesian causal map cognitive mapping economics forecasting turkish inflation