Power generation expansion planning with environmental consideration for Lebanon
This work describes the development and usage of a generation expansion planning (GEP) tool based on dynamic programming, probabilistic production simulation, and environmental assessment. The problem of GEP is solved in stages using tunnel dynamic programming to determine the optimal investment plan of unit additions. The objective function of the planning exercise is to minimize either the cost or the environmental impact or some weighed function of the two. The production costing methodology is based on combining a probabilistic generation model with the load duration curve of the system to deduce a risk model from which the expected energy not supplied and the expected energy produced by each unit are estimated. Estimation of environmental emissions is conducted based on fuel type, heat rate, and energy produced by each unit. The program can model hydroelectric units as well as energy limited units, under economical and environmental load dispatches. The model is illustrated by a planning case study of the Lebanese electric power system to examine the impact of various technical, economic and environmental parameters on the proposed plans.
production simulation costing energy systems air pollution