Unobserved component models with asymmetric conditional variances
Unobserved component models with GARCH disturbances are extended to allow for asymmetric responses of conditional variances to positive and negative shocks. The asymmetric conditional variance is represented by a member of the QARCH class of models. The proposed model allows to distinguish whether the possibly asymmetric conditional heteroscedasticity affects the short-run or the long-run disturbances or both. Statistical properties of the new model and the finite sample properties of a QML estimator of the parameters are analyzed. The correlogram of squared auxiliary residuals is shown to be useful to identify the conditional heteroscedasticity. Finite sample properties of squared auxiliary residuals are also analysed. Finally, the results are illustrated by fitting the model to daily series of financial and gold prices, as well as to monthly series of inflation. The behavior of volatility in both types of series is different. The conditional heteroscedasticity mainly affects the short-run component in financial prices while in the inflation series, the heteroscedasticity appears in the long-run component. Asymmetric effects are found in both types of variables.
garch qarch auxiliary residuals inflation financial series leverage effect structural time series models