Modeling the Impact of Taxes and Transfers on Child Poverty in South Africa
The research described here shows how microsimulation modeling can be used to analyze the impact of tax and transfer policy on the situation of children in South Africa. Given that the government has made explicit legislative commitments to children and that poverty rates are highest for households containing children, it might be expected that children would be a priority in policy reforms. The microsimulation model South African Microsimulation Model (SAMOD) is used to simulate certain policy reforms announced in the 2008 budget, and implemented during 2008, and explore the impact of these reforms on children and other age groups across the income distribution. A budget-neutral policy reform is also considered to determine the extent to which policy could do more to support children without adversely affecting other poor groups.
child poverty south africa microsimulation tax and transfer policy