How do you perceive environmental change? Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping informing stakeholder analysis for environmental policy making and non-market valuation
In spite of considerable progress in our understanding of ecosystem functioning, our ability to design effective and enforceable environmental policies requires a deep understanding of human perceptions and beliefs. In this respect, what is called today stakeholder analysis is an eclectic mixture of qualitative and semi-quantitative techniques aiming at eliciting, understanding and de-codifying how individuals perceive risks and threats towards sustainability. Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) is gradually emerging as an alternative methodology capable of assisting researchers in the domain of environmental policy. We explored the promise that FCM holds to support environmental policy makers. We suggest FCM approach as a new participatory method in environmental policy: through aiding in Multi-stakeholder (actor) analysis for risk assessment, capturing values and scenarios construction. To show how this is feasible we try to answer three basic questions: How cognitive mapping can support decision-making? How FCM can support environmental decision-making? How simulation of concepts may help in communicating stakeholders views to environmental decision makers? Then we explore the potential application of FCM in environmental policy, especially in environmental economics, trying to substantiate economic values for nature providing flesh and bones to the concept of economic preferences.
fuzzy cognitive mapping non-market valuation scenarios environmental management decision-making