High variance in reproductive success generates a false signature of a genetic bottleneck in populations of constant size: a simulation study
Demographic bottlenecks can severely reduce the genetic variation of a population or a species. Establishing whether low genetic variation is caused by a bottleneck or a constantly low effective number of individuals is important to understand a species ecology and evolution, and it has implications for conservation management. Recent studies have evaluated the power of several statistical methods developed to identify bottlenecks. However, the false positive rate, i.e. the rate with which a bottleneck signal is misidentified in demographically stable populations, has received little attention. We analyse this type of error (type I) in forward computer simulations of stable populations having greater than Poisson variance in reproductive success (i.e., variance in family sizes). The assumption of Poisson variance underlies bottleneck tests, yet it is commonly violated in species with high fecundity.
variance in reproductive success conservation heterozygosity excess m-ratio msvar fpr sweepstakes reproduction type i error