A computer program for a Monte Carlo analysis of sensitivity in equations of environmental modelling obtained from experimental data
In the construction of mathematical models from experimental data, it is possible to determine equations that model relations using several methodologies [Un nuevo algoritmo para la modelizacin de sistemas altamente estructurados (2000); Env. Model. Software 15 (2000) 461; Guide to Statistics 1,2 (1999); Regression models (1999); Ecosystems and Sustainable Development II (1999)]. These methodologies build equations that are in line with the experimental data and they analyse a dimension of adjustment and a dimension of error or distance between the experimental data and the data that is produced by the model. There are studies of sensitivity of the sample of data, as found by Bolado and Alonso [Proceedings SAMO 2001]. The authors consider that it is useful to obtain new parameters that relate the sensitivity of the equations to the variations that are produced by the experimental data. This will allow the selection of the model according to new criteria. On the one hand, the authors present a theoretical study of sensitivity of the models according to different points of view. On the other hand, they discuss a computing algorithm that allows the analysis of sensitivity (and stability) of the mathematical equations, which are built from any methodology. An interface has been incorporated into this algorithm to allow a graphic visualisation of the effects that are produced when modifications of the model are carried out.
monte carlo environmental modelling sensitivity analysis