CORO, a modeling and an algorithmic framework for oil supply, transformation and distribution optimization under uncertainty1
We present a modeling framework for the optimization of a multiperiod Supply, Transformation and Distribution (STD) scheduling problem under uncertainty on the product demand, spot supply cost and spot selling price. The Hydrocarbon and Chemical sector has been chosen as the pilot area, but the approach has a far more reaching application. A deterministic treatment of the problem provides unsatisfactory results. We use a 2-stage scenario analysis based on a partial recourse approach, where the STD policy can be implemented for a given set of initial time periods, such that the solution for the other periods does not need to be anticipated and, then, it depends on the scenario to occur. In any case, it takes into consideration all the given scenarios. Novel schemes are presented for modeling multiperiod linking constraints, such that they are satisfied through the scenario tree; they are modeled by using a splitting variable scheme, via a reduntant circular linking representation.
scenario analysis logistic planning stochastic parameters implementable periods nonanticipativity principle 2-stage decision making