Multiperiod scenario development using group support systems: An application to the future of Hong Kong
Managers facing substantial uncertainties often find it helpful to construct scenarios describing alternative futures. Knowledgeable people may have useful information, observations, and impressions relevant to these futures, but in some organizations and societies they may also be reluctant to openly discuss their ideas. Group support systems (GSS) have been shown to be useful in constructing and analyzing scenarios under these conditions. However, much of this work is based on single-period views that describe the end state of a system without examination of intermediate states leading up to the end state. We show how GSS can be used to construct 2-period scenarios that include 1 intermediate state. In addition, one can use this information to estimate long run effects by calculating the equilibrium probabilities of a stationary Markov chain. We then apply this approach to develop 2-period scenarios that describe possible futures for Hong Kong.
multiperiod scenario development group support systems markov chain