Uncertainty associated with model predictions of surface and crown fire rates of spread
We examined error statistics of operational wildland fire spread models. We compiled 49 fire spread model evaluation datasets involving 1278 observations. Mean percent error varied between 20 and 310% and was homogeneous across fuel type groups. The analysis suggests that a 35% error interval is a reasonable standard for model adequacy.
fire behaviour fire dynamics fire environment fire modelling model applicability model input accuracy