Can a bibliometric indicator predict the success of an analgesic?
In the assessment of success of new analgesic drugs over the past 50years (Kissin, Anesth Analg 110:780789, 2010) we observed a difference in the publication response to a new drug between biomedical journals in general and top journals: number of published articles on a drug increased (and declined) more rapidly in the top journals. Based on this phenomenon we present a new publication indicatorthe Top Journal Selectivity Index (TJSI). It represents the ratio between the number of all types of articles in the top 20 biomedical journals and the number of articles in all (>5,000) journals covered by Medline, over 5years after a drugs introduction. Ten analgesics developed during the period 19862009 were selected for analysis. Three publication indices were used for assessment: the number of all types of articles presented in Medline, the number of articles covering only randomized controlled trials (RCT), and the Top Journal Selectivity Index. We also assessed the success score in the development of these analgesics based on the following criteria: novelty of molecular target, analgesic efficacy, and response by the pharmaceutical market. The relationships between the publication indices and analgesics success score were determined with the use of the Pearson correlation coefficient. Positive relationship was found only with the Top Journal Selectivity Index (r=0.876, p<0.001). We suggest that this index can predict success in drug development at least in the field of analgesics.
bibliometrics analgesics new drugs biomedical journals impact factor topic-specific publications