Assessment of the application of point estimate methods in the probabilistic stability analysis of slopes
This study examines the applicability of point estimate methods (PEMs) in the probabilistic stability analysis of slopes. For illustrative purposes, two slopes indicating two different mechanisms of failure are selected and probabilistic analyses are performed employing three PEMs that have been widely cited in different literature reports. To evaluate the benefits and shortcomings of each PEM, various cases are studied in which random parameters may be dependent or independent and can have arbitrary distributions. Furthermore, the efficiency and accuracy of the considered PEMs are assessed by comparing the results with those obtained by Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The results indicate that the considered PEMs are sufficiently precise and, in case an intricate geotechnical structure must be probabilistically analysed, they can readily be incorporated with numerical methods.
point estimate method monte carlo simulation probabilistic analysis reliability index probability of failure