Maintaining the validity of simulation models using prediction intervals
This paper presents a methodology for maintaining the operational validity of simulation models of observable systems in order to support operational decisions. In this methodology, real-time system data are continuously compared against simultaneous prediction intervals on selected responses constructed using the simulation model. The methodology is illustrated through using a case example of a simulation model of a flexible manufacturing system. Different invalidating discrepancies between the model and the system are investigated. Results indicate that using nontraditional responses may lead to a faster detection of invalidating changes, the speed of detection is a function of the scope of;;he change, and the model may evolve with the system and continue to be used to guard against random changes. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
validation simulation prediction intervals operational decisions