SFFS-PC-NN optimized by genetic algorithm for dynamic prediction of financial distress with longitudinal data streams
Recently, research of financial distress prediction has become increasingly urgent. However, existing static models for financial distress prediction are not able to adapt to the situation that the sample data flows constantly with the lapse of time. Financial distress prediction with static models does not meet the demand of the dynamic nature of business operations. This article explores the theoretical and empirical research of dynamic modeling on financial distress prediction with longitudinal data streams from the view of individual enterprise. Based on enterprises longitudinal data streams, dynamic financial distress prediction model is constructed by integrating financial indicator selection by using sequential floating forward selection method, dynamic evaluation of enterprises financial situation by using principal component analysis at each longitudinal time point, and dynamic prediction of financial distress by using back-propagation neural network optimized by genetic algorithm. This models ex-ante prediction efficiently combines its ex-post evaluation. In empirical study, three listed companies half-year longitudinal data streams are used as the sample set. Results of dynamic financial distress prediction show that the longitudinal and dynamic model of enterprises financial distress prediction is more effective and feasible than static model.
genetic algorithm dynamic prediction of financial distress longitudinal data streams sequential floating forward selection back-propagation neural network principal component discrimination