Bayesian assessment of electrical power transmission grid outage risk
Current state of handling uncertainty in power grid reliability data is limited. Bayesian methods are applied to grid reliability and cascading outages analysis. Proofs of environment-related data variability in line outages is obtained. Hierarchical model extension allowed more realistic grid reliability analysis. Hierarchical BorelTanner model extension show better fit to real outage data.
bayesian assessment risk reliability cascading outages electrical grid