Erlangian Approximations for the Transient Analysis of a Fluid Queue Model for Forest Fire Perimeter
This paper presents how the Erlangization method can be employed to estimate probabilities for the time-dependent behaviour of the level in a Markov modulated fluid flow Formulas are given for estimating the probability of transitions to any fluid level, starting from an initial level in either an increasing or a decreasing stage in the phase process, prior to a finite time-point of interest This methodology is applied to a model developed to study the evolution of uncontrolled file perimeter for forest fires in Ontario. Canada The model estimates the relative effectiveness of fire suppression under various fire-weather and fuel type scenarios, focusing on containment and escape probabilities. Numerical results are provided for illustrative purposes
erlangization transient analysis markov modulation fluid flow fire suppression effectiveness wildland fire