Cash flow generalisations of non-life insurance expert systems estimating outstanding liabilities
Two new reserving methods using expert opinion incurred data are presented. New methodology allows reserving methods to be compared via validation. The two most popular actuarial reserving methods can also be compared via this new method. Our new expert system approach to reserving is shown to be superior for our real life example.
incurred data stochastic reserving general insurance chain ladder claims inflation model validation