Testing the validity of kinship microsimulation
Computer microsimulation is capable of generating detailed reconstructions and forecasts of the numbers of living kin that members of a population have. The available detail, specificity, and consistency of vital rates for the past and the accuracy of vital rates projected for the future necessarily limit the accuracy of the kinship estimates that can be produced. This study is an external validity test of Reeves' 1982 reconstruction and forecast of U.S. kin counts with the SOCSIM microsimulation program [1]. The external standard is provided by estimates from the 1987-88 wave of the National Survey of Families and Households, the first detailed information on numbers and ages of kin for the United States. We compare forecasts with estimates for average numbers of living grandchildren, living full-siblings, and living half-siblings as functions of age. We find remarkably close agreement for some of the predictions, along with several instances of systematic discrepancies. The discrepancies most likely stem from errors in the forecasts rather than in the survey estimates. Interacting rather than isolable errors appear to be responsible. Our validity tests provide a basis for qualified faith in the effectiveness of kinship microsimulation.
kinship microsimulation forecasting aging