Predictability and trapping under conditions of globalisation of agricultural trade: An application of the CDS approach
The purpose of the paper is to demonstrate how timely investments in the ecosphere promote high level stable agricultural income. It is shown that the recovery capability of the ecosphere together with strong agricultural productivity relative to the rest of the economy may be considered as control parameters of the system. They play a crucial role for agriculture to escape from a low level trap. The scenario leading to the escape is based on an economic strategy leading to a sequence of local and global bifurcations, changing the dynamical structure of the system. The effects of globalization on the system's dynamics and stable sets are considered. Globalisation is taken into account by means of nonautonomous impulses making selected system parameters oscillate. Necessary conditions for sustainable agriculture development are established. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
globalization ecosphere low level trap bifurcations dynamics sustainable agriculture attractors autonomous systems