Characteristics of software engineers with optimistic predictions
This paper examines the degree to which level of optimism in software engineers predictions is related to optimism on previous predictions, general level of optimism (explanatory style, life orientation and self-assessed optimism), development skill, confidence in the accuracy of their own predictions, and ability to recall effort used on previous tasks. Results from four experiments suggest that more optimistic software engineers are characterized by more optimistic previous predictions, higher confidence in the accuracy of their own predictions, lower development skills, poorer ability or willingness to recall effort on previous tasks, and higher optimism scores. However, a substantial part of the variation in the level of optimism seems to be random.
software development effort estimation expert judgment predictions of optimism