Short-term load forecasting of power systems by gene expression programming
Short-term load forecasting is a popular topic in the electric power industry due to its essentiality in energy system planning and operation. Load forecasting is important in deregulated power systems since an improvement of a few percentages in the prediction accuracy will bring benefits worth of millions of dollars. In this study, a promising variant of genetic programming, namely gene expression programming (GEP), is utilized to improve the accuracy and enhance the robustness of load forecasting results. With the use of the GEP technique, accurate relationships were obtained to correlate the peak and total loads to average, maximum and lowest temperatures of day. The presented model is applied to forecast short-term load using the actual data from a North American electric utility. A multiple least squares regression analysis was performed using the same variables and same data sets to benchmark the GEP models. For more verification, a subsequent parametric study was also carried out. The observed agreement between the predicted and measured peak and total load values indicates that the proposed correlations are capable of effectively forecasting the short-term load. The GEP-based formulas are relatively short, simple and particularly valuable for providing an analysis tool accessible to practicing engineers.
short-term load forecasting gene expression programming formulation