A measure of bullwhip effect in supply chains with a mixed autoregressive-moving average demand process
In this paper, we quantify the impact of the bullwhip effect  the phenomenon in which information on demand is distorted as moving up a supply chain  for a simple two-stage supply chain with one supplier and one retailer. Assuming that the retailer employs a base stock inventory policy, and that the demand forecast is performed via a mixed autoregressive-moving average model, ARMA(1,1), we investigate the effects of the autoregressive coefficient, the moving average parameter, and the lead time on the bullwhip effect.
bullwhip effect supply chain mixed autoregressive-moving average model base stock policy