Fuzzy relations for the analysis of traders preferences in an information market game
In this paper we focus on preference and decision data gathered during a computer-supported information market game in which 35 students participated during seven consecutive trading sessions. The participants individual preferences on the market shares are collected to calculate a collective preference ranking using the Borda social choice method. Comparing this preference ranking to the shares actual market ranking resulting from the participants trading, we find a statistically significant difference between both rankings. As the preferences established by market behavior cannot be adequately explained through a social choice rule, we propose an alternative explanation based on the herd behavior phenomenon where traders imitate the most successful trader in the market. Using a decision analysis technique based on fuzzy relations, we study the participants rankings of the best share in the market during 7 weeks and compare the most successful trader to the other traders. The results from our analysis show that a substantial number of traders is indeed following the market leader.
information market fuzzy sets decision making preference modeling