R IGOROUS A GENT E VALUATION : A N ADVERSARIAL APPROACH TO UNCOVER CATASTROPHIC FAILURES
Anonymous authors
Paper under double-blind review
A BSTRACT
This paper addresses the problem of evaluating learning systems in safety critical domains such as autonomous driving, where failures can have catastrophic consequences.
We focus on two problems: searching for scenarios when learned agents fail and assessing their probability of failure.
The standard method for agent evaluation in reinforcement learning, Vanilla Monte Carlo, can miss failures entirely, leading to the deployment of unsafe agents.
We demonstrate this is an issue for current agents, where even matching the compute used for training is sometimes insufﬁcient for evaluation.
To address this shortcoming, we draw upon the rare event probability estimation literature and propose an adversarial evaluation approach.
Our approach focuses evaluation on adversarially chosen situations, while still providing unbiased estimates of failure probabilities.
The key difﬁculty is in identifying these adversarial situations – since failures are rare there is little signal to drive optimization.
To solve this we propose a continuation approach that learns failure modes in related but less robust agents.
Our approach also allows reuse of data already collected for training the agent.
We demonstrate the efﬁcacy of adversarial evaluation on two standard domains: humanoid control and simulated driving.
Experimental results show that our methods can ﬁnd catastrophic failures and estimate failures rates of agents multiple orders of magnitude faster than standard evaluation schemes, in minutes to hours rather than days.
I NTRODUCTION
How can we ensure machine learning systems do not make catastrophic mistakes?
While machine learning systems have shown impressive results across a variety of domains (Krizhevsky et al., 2012; Mnih et al., 2015; Silver et al., 2017), they may also fail badly on particular inputs, often in unexpected ways (Szegedy et al., 2013).
As we start deploying these systems, it is important that we can reliably evaluate the risk of failure.
This is particularly important for safety critical domains like autonomous driving where the negative consequences of a single mistake can overwhelm the positive beneﬁts accrued during typical operation of the system.
Limitations of random testing.
The key problem we highlight is that for standard statistical evaluation, attaining conﬁdence that the failure rate of a policy is below (cid:15) requires at least 1 /(cid:15) episodes.
We now informally summarize this point, which we discuss further in Appendix A. For concreteness, consider a self-driving car company that decides that the cost of a single accident where the car is at fault outweighs the beneﬁts of 100 million miles of faultless operation.
The standard approach in machine learning is to estimate the expected return via i.i.d.
samples from the data distribution (frequently a test set).
For tightly bounded returns, the sample estimate is guaranteed to quickly converge to the true expectation.
However, with catastrophic failures, this may be prohibitively inefﬁcient.
In our current example, any policy with a failure probability greater than (cid:15) =
10 − 8 per mile has negative expected return.
In other words, it would be better to not deploy the car.
However, to achieve reasonable conﬁdence that the car crashes with probability below 1 e – 8 , the manufacturer would need to test-drive the car for at least 1 e 8 miles, which may be prohibitively expensive.
Our Contributions.
To overcome the above-mentioned problems, we develop a novel adversarial evaluation approach.
The central motivation behind our algorithmic choices is the fact that realworld evaluation is typically dominated by the cost of running the agent in the real-world and/or human supervision.
In the self-driving car example, both issues are present: testing requires both operating a physical car, and a human test driver behind the wheel.
The overarching idea is thus to screen out situations that are unlikely to be problematic, and focus evaluation on the most difﬁcult situations.
The difﬁculty arises in identifying these situations – since failures are rare, there is little signal to drive optimization.
To address this problem, we introduce a continuation approach to learning a failure probability predictor (FPP), which estimates the probability the agent fails given some initial conditions.
The idea is to leverage data from less robust agents, which fail more frequently, to provide a stronger learning signal.
In our implementation, this also allows the algorithm to reuse data gathered for training the agent, saving time and resources during evaluation.
We note that adversarial testing is a well-established idea (see Section 5), but typically requires either a dense optimization signal or expert domain knowledge.
We avoid these stumbling blocks by relying on the learned FPP, which guides the adversarially acting evaluator.
We look at two settings where the FPP can be used.
In the simplest setting, failure search , the problem is to efﬁciently ﬁnd inputs (initial conditions) that cause failures (Section 2.1).
This task has several uses.
First, an adversary that solves this task efﬁciently allows one to identify and debug potentially unsafe policies.
Second, as has been done previously in the supervised learning literature, efﬁcient adversaries can be used for adversarial training, by folding the states causing failures back into the training algorithm (Madry et al., 2017).
The second setting, risk estimation , is the problem of efﬁciently estimating the failure probability of an agent (Section 2.2), which also has a simple application to efﬁciently selecting the most reliable agent from a ﬁnite set (Section 4.3).
Empirically, we demonstrate dramatic improvements in efﬁciency through adversarial testing on two domains (simulated driving and humanoid locomotion).
In summary, we present 3 key contributions:
We empirically demonstrate the limitations of random testing.
We observe that with random testing, the cost of reliably obtaining even a single adversarial input can exceed the entire cost of training.
Further, reliably estimating risk can exceed training costs.
We describe a continuation approach for learning failure probability predictors even when failures are rare.
We develop algorithms applying failure probability predictors to failure search, risk estimation, and model selection.
We extensively evaluate our method on simulated driving and humanoid locomotion domains.
Using adversarial evaluation, we ﬁnd failures with 198 and 3100 times fewer samples respectively.
On Humanoid, we bring the cost of reliable risk estimation down from greater than the cost of training to a practical budget.
P ROBLEM F ORMULATION
We ﬁrst introduce our notation.
Recall that we are interested in reliability assessment of a trained agent.
We assume that the experimenter who performs the reliability assessment can run an experiment (equivalently, a rollout or episode) with the trained agent given some initial condition x ∈ X , the outcome of which is a random failure indicator C
= c ( x, Z ) where Z ∼ P Z for some probability distribution
P Z over some set Z and where c : X × Z → { 0 , 1 } .
In particular, C is binary and C = 1 indicates a “catastrophic failure”.
The interpretation of Z is that it collects all sources of randomness due to the agent and the environment.
Unlike the case of x , Z is neither observed, nor controllable by the experimenter.
We are interested in the agent’s performance on the environment distribution over initial conditions X ∼ P X , which we assume can be sampled quickly.
In the real-world, evaluating c requires running the agent in the real-world and/or human supervision, which generally dominate the cost of evaluating neural networks.
It is thus assumed that evaluating c on the pair ( x, Z ) is costly.
In Section 4.1, we show that even on relatively cheap simulated environments, the cost of simulating environments dominates costs of evaluating neural networks.
2. F AILURE S EARCH
The objective of failure search is to ﬁnd a catastrophic failure of the agent.
Algorithms that search for failures, which we will call adversaries , can specify initial conditions x , observe the outcome C of running the agent on x and return as soon as C = 1 .
Thus, for each round t , the adversary can choose X t ∼ P t ( ·| X 1 , . . .
, X t − 1 ) , observe C t =
c ( X t , Z t ) , and return if C t = 1 .
Here, Z t ∼ P Z , independently of the history ( X 1 , . . .
, X t , Z 1 , . . .
, Z t − 1 ) .
The naive adversary evaluates the agent on samples from P X until observing a failure.
We assess adversaries by either the expected number of episodes, or the expected time elapsed, until returning a failure case.
To design a more efﬁcient adversary, the experimenter is allowed to collect historical data of the form ( X (cid:48)
1 , θ 1 , C (cid:48) 1 ) , . . .
, ( X (cid:48) n , θ n , C (cid:48) n ) while they are training their agent .
Here, the initial condition
X (cid:48) t and θ t ∈ Θ are chosen by the training procedure, where θ t encodes information about the agent used in round t to generate the observation C (cid:48) t =
c
( X (cid:48) t , Z (cid:48) t ) .
2. R ISK ESTIMATION
As before, let P X denote the distribution over initial states X deﬁned by the environment.
The failure probability of the trained agent is
[Equation]
where X ∼ P X and Z ∼ P
Z
independently.
A typical goal is to estimate p up to a ﬁxed relative accuracy with high probability.
Given some ρ > 1 , δ ∈ (0 , 1) , an algorithm is said to be ( ρ, δ ) correct if the estimate ˆ P produced belongs to the [ p/ρ, pρ ] interval with probability at least 1 − δ .
When ˆ P belongs to the said interval, we say that it is a ρ -approximation of p .
As before, the algorithm has access to historical data and can quickly sample from P X .
The naive or vanilla Monte Carlo (VMC) estimator samples from P X and returns the average of the observed outcomes.
We assess estimators by the total number of experiments required.
A PPROACH
In this section we describe our approach to the two problems outlined above.
A common feature of our proposed solutions is that they estimate the failure probability predictor (FPP) f ∗ : X → [0 , 1] that returns the probability of failure given a initial condition (equivalently, the value function of an adversary which receives reward 1 for failures, without discounting):
[Equation]
where Z ∼ P Z .
Our continuation approach to learning an approximation f
≈ f ∗ , f : X → [0 , 1] is described in Section 3.3.
f will be chosen so that the cost of evaluating f is negligible compared to running an experiment. The idea is to use f to save on the cost of experimentation.
Our solutions build on the certainty equivalence approach (Turnovsky, 1976): First, we describe how f ∗ (if available) could be leveraged.
In cases of certainty equivalence, we would substitute f for f ∗ .
We then introduce additional heuristics to reduce sensitivity to the mismatch between f and f ∗ .
3. F AILURE S EARCH
When f ∗ is known, the optimal adversary has a particularly simple form (proof left to the reader):
Proposition 3.1.
The adversary that minimizes the expected number of rounds until failure evaluates the agent repeatedly on an instance x ∗ ∈
X that maximizes f ∗ : X → [0 , 1] .
Having access to f ≈ f ∗ , a natural approach is to evaluate the agent on arg max x f ( x ) .
There are two problems with this: (i) a maximizer may be hard to ﬁnd and (ii) there is no guarantee that the maximizer of f will give a point where f ∗ is large.
Rather than always select the global maximizer of f , one way to increase the robustness of this procedure is to sample diverse initial conditions.
We adopt a simple procedure: sample n initial conditions from P X , pick the initial condition from this set where f is the largest, and run an experiment from the found initial condition.
We repeat this process with new sampled initial conditions until we ﬁnd a catastrophic failure.
The pseudocode is included in Appendix C as Algorithm 2 (FPP Adversary).
3. R ISK ESTIMATION USING FPP S
The failure probability estimation method uses importance sampling (IS) (e.g., Section 4.2, Bucklew 2004) where the distribution P X is replaced by a proposal distribution Q .
For t ∈ [ n ] , the proposal distribution is used to generate random initial condition X t ∼ Q , then an experiment is performed to generate C t
= c ( X t , Z t ) .
The failure probability p is estimated using the sample mean
[Equation]
where W t = p X ( X t ) q ( X t ) is the importance weight of the t -th sample.
Here, p X denotes the density of
P X and q denotes the density of Q .
2 Let U t =
W t c ( X t , Z t ) .
As is well-known, under the condition that p X ( x ) f ∗ ( x ) = 0 whenever q ( x ) = 0 , we have that E [ U t ] = p , and hence E [ ˆ P ] = p .
Given that ˆ P is unbiased for any proposal distribution, one natural objective is to choose a proposal distribution which minimizes the variance of the estimator
ˆ P .
Proposition 3.2.
For f : X → [0 , 1] such that P X ( f 1 / 2 ) := (cid:82) f 1 / 2 ( x (cid:48) )
P X ( dx (cid:48) )
> 0 let Q f be deﬁned as the distribution over X whose density q f is
[Equation]
Then, the variance minimizing proposal distribution Q ∗ is Q f ∗ .
The (standard) proof of this and the next proposition can be found in Appendix B. Note that from the deﬁnition of Q f it follows that p X ( x ) q f ( x ) =
f − 1 / 2 ( x ) P X ( f 1 / 2 ) when q f ( x ) > 0 .
The above result motivates us to suggest using the distribution Q f as the proposal distribution of an
IS estimator.
Note that the choice of f (as long as it is bounded away from zero) only inﬂuences the efﬁciency of the method, but not its correctness.
It remains to specify how to sample from Q f and how to calculate the importance weights.
For sampling from Q f , we propose to use the rejection sampling method (Section 1.2.2, Bucklew 2004) with the proposal distribution chosen to be P X :
First, X ∼ P X is chosen, which is accepted by probability f 1 / 2 ( X ) .
This is repeated until a sample is accepted:
Proposition 3.3.
Rejection sampling as described produces a sample from Q f .
To increase the robustness of the sampling procedure against errors introduced by f (cid:54) = f ∗ , we introduce a “hyperparameter” α > 0 so that q f is redeﬁned to be proportional to f α .
Note that α = 1 / 2 is what our previous result suggests.
However, if f is overestimated, a larger value of α may work better, while if f is underestimated, a smaller value of α may work better.
The pseudocode of the full procedure is given as Algorithm 1.
Algorithm
Input: FPP f , budget T ∈ N and tuning parameter α >
Returns: Failure probability estimate ˆ P
Initialize S ←for t = 1 to T do repeat
Sample proposal instance X t ∼ P X
Accept X t with probability f α ( X t ) until accepting initial condition X t
Evaluate the agent on X t and observe C t = c ( X t , Z t )
S ← S + C t /f α
( X t ) end for
Compute normalization constant Z ← 1 m (cid:80) mi =
f α ( X (cid:48) i ) for X (cid:48)
i ∼ P X , m (cid:29) T return ˆ
P ← ZS/T
3. A C ONTINUATION A PPROACH TO L EARNING FPP S
Since f ∗ gives probabilities, an approximation to f ∗ can be learned by setting up an appropriate binary classiﬁcation problem when the observed failure indicator is used as the target label.
In this work we use neural networks for this purpose, trained using the standard cross-entropy loss.
The naive approach involves ﬁrst collecting a dataset ( X 1 , C 1 ) , . . .
, ( X n , C n ) by evaluating the agent of interest on random problem instances X ∼ P X , then using this data to ﬁt f .
Instead, we propose a continuation approach , in which f is trained on a family of related agents rather than a single agent.
This has two key beneﬁts.
First, this allows us to leverage the wealth of data which is already collected while training the agent.
Second, we shall see that, with random testing, the cost of observing a single failure for the ﬁnal agent can approach the total cost of training.
In these cases, the increased failure rates of earlier agents can provide an essential boost to the “signal” in the learning procedure.
Recall that the historical data collected during training takes the form ( X (cid:48) 1 , θ 1 , C (cid:48) 1 ) , . . .
, ( X (cid:48) n , θ n , C (cid:48) n ) where X (cid:48) t is the initial condition in iteration t of training, and θ t characterizes essential features of the agent’s policy used to collect the failure indicator C (cid:48) t .
The idea is to augment the input space of the neural network from X to X × Θ , training the network to predict P ( C (cid:48) t = 1 | X (cid:
) t , θ t ) .
In the simplest implementation, θ t merely encodes the training iteration t .
In many common off-policy RL methods, additional stochasticity is used in the policy at training time to encourage exploration.
In these cases, we also use θ t to encode the degree of stochasticity in the policy.
To some extent, we are relying on generalization in the FPP to address the data sparsity issue.
After all, if the naive approach does not observe any failures for the agent of interest, the continuation approach almost certainly does not either.
We now provide a simple toy example to discuss in which ways we rely on generalization of the FPP, and other ways in which we do not.
Example.
Suppose the true FPP f ∗ factorizes as f ∗ ( x, θ ) =
g ∗ ( x ) h ∗ ( θ ) .
Suppose we have two agents described by θ 1 , θ 2 , such that the latter agent is signiﬁcantly more robust, i.e., h ∗ ( θ 1 )
/h ∗ ( θ 2 ) =
r (cid:29) 1 .
Then, if learning requires a ﬁxed number of positive examples to reach a particular accuracy, the continuation approach learns g , the state-dependent component, r times faster than the naive approach, since it receives r times as many positive examples.
On the other hand, accurately learning h ( θ 2 ) is difﬁcult, since positive examples on θ 2 are rare.
However, even when h is learned inaccurately, this FPP is still useful for both failure search and risk estimation.
Concretely, if two FPPs f 1 ( x, θ ) =
g ( x ) h 1 ( θ ) , f 2 ( x, θ )
=
g ( x ) h 2 ( θ ) differ only in h , then both the adversaries and estimators induced by f 1 and f 2 are equivalent .
This is apparent, since when θ is held constant to θ 2 for the agent of interest, f 1 and f 2 only differ by a multiplicative constant h 1 ( θ 2 ) /h
2 ( θ 2 ) , which factors out when performing the adversarial search, and deﬁning the proposal distribution for risk estimation.
Discussion.
Of course, this strict factorization does not hold exactly in practice.
However, we use this example to illustrate two points.
First, for both failure search and risk estimation, it is the shape of the learned FPP f ( θ, s ) which matters more than its magnitude.
Particularly in failure search, even changes to the shape of f are ﬁne, so long as the argmax of f does not change.
Second, it captures the intuition that the FPP may learn the underlying structure of difﬁcult states, i.e. g ( s ) , on policies where positive examples are less scarce.
Further, using ﬂexible parameterizations for f , such as neural networks, still allow f to represent interactions between θ and s , provided there is sufﬁcient data to learn these regularities.
Of course, if failure modes of the test policy of interest look nothing like the failure modes observed during training, the FPP approach is insufﬁcient.
However, we show that in the domains we study, this approach works quite well.
E XPERIMENTS
We run experiments on two standard reinforcement learning domains, which we describe brieﬂy here.
Full details on the environments and agent training procedures are provided in Appendix E.
In the Driving domain, the agent controls a car in the TORCS simulator (Wymann et al., 2000) and is rewarded for forward progress without crashing.
Initial conditions are deﬁned by the shape of the track, which is sampled from a procedurally deﬁned distribution P X .
We deﬁne a failure as
[Table]
any collision with a wall.
We use an on-policy actor-critic agent as in Espeholt et al.
(2018), using environment settings from Mnih et al.
(2016) which reproduces the original results on TORCS.
In the Humanoid domain, the agent controls a 21 -DoF humanoid body in the MuJoCo simulator (Todorov et al., 2012; Tassa et al., 2018), and is rewarded for standing without falling.
The initial condition of an experiment is deﬁned by a standing joint conﬁguration, which is sampled from a ﬁxed distribution.
We deﬁne a catastrophic failure as any state where the humanoid has fallen, i.e. the head height is below a ﬁxed threshold.
We use an off-policy distributed distributional deterministic policy gradient (D4PG) agent, following hyperparameters from Barth-Maron et al.
(2018) which reproduces the original results on the humanoid tasks.
4. F AILURE SEARCH
We ﬁrst compare three adversaries by the number of episodes required to ﬁnd an initial condition that results in a trajectory that ends with a failure.
Our purpose is to illustrate two key contributions.
First, a naive evaluation, even when using the same number of episodes as training the agent, can lead to a false sense of safety by failing to detect any catastrophic failures.
Second, adversarial testing addresses this issue, by dramatically reducing the cost of ﬁnding failures.
The adversaries evaluated are the naive (VMC) and the FPP adversaries introduced in Section 3.1, as well as an adversary that we call the prioritized replay (PR) adversary.
This latter adversary runs experiments starting from all initial conditions which led to failures during training, most recent ﬁrst.
This provides a simple and natural alternative to the naive adversary.
Additional details on all adversaries are provided in
Appendix E. The results are summarized in Table 1.
Discussion of FPP adversary.
The FPP adversary is multiple orders of magnitude more efﬁcient than the random adversary.
In particular, we note that on Humanoid, for the VMC adversary to have over a 95 % chance of detecting a single failure, we would require over 300 , 000 episodes, exceeding the cost of training, which used less than 300 , 000 episodes 3 .
In practice, evaluation is often run for much less time than training, and in these cases, the naive approach would very often lead to the mistaken impression that such failure modes do not exist.
We observe similar improvements in wall-clock time.
On the Driving domain, in the median case, ﬁnding a failure requires 2 .
7 hours in expectation for the random adversary, compared to 1 .
1 minutes for the FPP adversary.
Even including the model training time of 5 minutes, the FPP adversary is 27 times faster.
Similarly, on the Humanoid domain, the random adversary requires 3 days (hours) in expectation, compared to 6 minutes for the FPP adversary, amounting to a 61 -fold speedup after including FPP training time of 70 minutes.
These numbers underscore the point that even in relatively cheap, simulated environments, the cost of environment interactions dominate learning and inference costs of the FPP.
Discussion of Prioritized Replay adversary.
The PR adversary often provides much better efﬁciency than random testing, with minimal implementational overhead.
The main limitation is that in some cases, the prioritized replay adversary may never detect failures, even if they exist.
In particular, an agent may learn to handle the particular problem instances on which it was trained, without eliminating all possible failures.
In these cases (this occurred once on Humanoid), we fall back to the VMC adversary after trying all the problem instances which caused failures at training.
On the
[Figure]
Driving domain, because we use a form of adversarial training for the agent, very few ( < 20 ) of the training problem instances have support under P X .
Since none of these resulted in failures, the PR adversary would immediately fall back to the VMC adversary.
Comparison to classical approaches.
One question is why we do not compare to more classical techniques from the rare events literature, such as cross-entropy method or subset simulation.
Because we optimize a binary failure signal, rather than a continuous score as in the classical setting, these approaches would not work well.
For example, in Humanoid, the ﬁnal agent fails once every 110k episodes, and was trained for 300k episodes.
If we used cross-entropy method on the ﬁnal agent, we would need signiﬁcantly more than 300k episodes of data to ﬁt a good proposal distribution.
The continuation approach is essential - obtaining enough failures to ﬁt a useful proposal distribution requires learning from a family of weaker agents.
4. R ISK ESTIMATION
We now compare approaches for risk estimation.
Again, the purpose is to illustrate the claim that a naive approach may often be too inefﬁcient to give rise to non-vacuous quantitative answers with reasonable resources, while better alternatives can deliver such answers.
In particular, we compare the FPP estimator of Section 3.2 to the vanilla Monte Carlo estimator (VMC).
For comparison purposes, we run each estimator multiple times and report the fraction of cases when the obtained estimates fail to fall in the ( p/ 3 , 3 p ) interval, where p is the failure probability to be estimated.
This provides a fairly accurate estimate of the probability of ˆ P failing to be a ρ = 3 -approximation of p .
Results are summarized in Fig.
In Appendix E.3 we include plots for other choices of ρ , to show that the results are not very sensitive to ρ .
Discussion.
At the conﬁdence level 1 − δ = 0 .
95 , on the Driving domain, the FPP estimator needs only 750 experiments to achieve a 3 -approximation, while the VMC estimator needs 11 ,experiments for the same.
This means that here the FPP estimator requires 14 times less environment interaction.
Similarly, on the Humanoid domain, at the conﬁdence level 1 − δ = 0 .
95 , the FPP estimator requires 15 , 000 experiments to achieve a 3 -approximation, while the VMC estimator requires 5 .
1 e 5 experiments, a 34 -fold improvement.
We note that these numbers demonstrate that the FPP also has good coverage , i.e. it samples from all possible failures, since if any failure conditions were vastly undersampled, the variance of the
FPP estimator would explode due to the importance weight term.
Coverage and efﬁciency are complementary.
While failure search merely requires the adversary identify a single failure, efﬁcient risk estimation requires the adversary to sample from all possible failures.
4. A PPLICATION TO IDENTIFYING MORE RELIABLE AGENTS
[Figure]
The improved efﬁciency of the FPP estimator has many beneﬁts.
One application is to identify the most reliable agent from a ﬁxed ﬁnite set.
For this illustration, we compare 50 Humanoid agents, spaced evenly over the course of training (excluding the beginning of training, when the agent has a high failure rate).
We compare the choices made when the failure probability estimation is performed with the
VMC estimator the FPP estimator policy at each point in time the
the
- est estimated risk.
In the event of a tie (e g., among several policies with no failures), we report the expected failure probability when selecting from the tied
Fig.
2 summarizes the results.
When using VMC,out of 50 policies have never failed by the end of the evaluation process.
Thus, VMC was not able to rank 36 out of the 50 policies and the experimenter would be forced to choose one of these with no further information about their reliability.
On the other hand, the
FPP estimator quickly produces failures for the weak policies, and is able to select a policy which is overtimes more robust (this estimate is conservative – see Appendix E.4).
This can be viewed as an extremely naive form of adversarial training, where the model is selected from a discrete set of options rather than a high-dimensional parameter space.
We use this example to highlight the recurring theme that random testing can be highly inefﬁcient – failing to identify the best policies even after 500 , 000 episodes (longer than training time) – while adversarial testing greatly improves efﬁciency.
4. P OTENTIAL CONCERNS
We conclude this section with practical considerations regarding the use of this approach in settings beyond the domains considered here, including the real world.
Maintaining high coverage.
A concern is that if the FPP underestimates the failure probability of certain initial conditions, the risk estimator will have high variance, and with limited samples, often underestimate the true failure probability.
Our main point is that in many settings, VMC has little chance of revealing any failures with a practical budget, and so using any form of optimized adversary is a large improvement, but we also acknowledge other factors which mitigate this issue.
First, because the FPP is trained on weaker agents, it typically over-estimates failure probabilities.
Second, in Humanoid, where failures are particularly rare, we use a simpliﬁed Differentiable Neural
Dictionary (DND) (Pritzel et al., 2017) described in Appendix E.1.
A DND is a kNN classiﬁer in feature space, but uses a learned pseudo-count, which causes it to output higher failure probabilities when the query point is far in feature space from training points.
Efﬁciency lower bounds.
Further, we can ensure our method never does more than 2 times worse than VMC.
To do so, we run both the VMC and FPP estimators in parallel.
If VMC ﬁnds at least several failures, then we take the VMC estimate, and otherwise take the FPP estimate.
This incurs a 2 x slow-down in the worst case, while remaining much more efﬁcient in many safety critical domains. Neufeld et al.
(2014) give better guarantees when combining stochastic estimators.
B ACKGROUND AND R ELATED W ORK
Adversarial examples.
Our work on reliability is in part motivated by research on adversarial examples, which highlights the fact that machine learning systems that perform very well on average may nonetheless perform extremely poorly on particular adversarial inputs , often in surprising ways (Szegedy et al., 2013; Goodfellow et al., 2014).
Unlike previous work on adversarial examples in reinforcement learning (Huang et al., 2017; Lin et al., 2017), we do not allow adversaries to generate inputs outside the distribution on which the agent is trained.
Most work on adversarial examples has focused on L p norm balls in the image domain.
Many recent papers have questioned the practical value of norm ball robustness (Gilmer et al., 2018; Engstrom et al., 2017; Schott et al., 2018).
However, moving beyond the norm ball speciﬁcation has been difﬁcult, because for unrestricted adversarial examples, human evaluation is necessary to determine the ground truth labels (see Brown et al.
; Song et al.
(2018) for work in this direction).
In this context, we believe simulated reinforcement learning environments provide a valuable testbed for researchers interested in adversarial examples - the ground truth is provided by the simulator.
We hope the domains and problem formulations presented here drive research on adversarial examples beyond norm balls, and towards training and testing models consistent with global speciﬁcations.
Adversarial approaches for evaluation.
Our work bears similarities to Werpachowski et al.
(2018) who use adversarial examples with an importance weighting correction to detect test set overﬁtting in the context of classiﬁcation.
Our aims share similarities to recent proposals for testing components of autonomous vehicle systems (Shalev-Shwartz et al., 2017; Dreossi et al., 2017; Tian et al., 2018).
We believe these approaches are complementary and should be developed in parallel: these works focus on components-level speciﬁcations (e.g. controllers should maintain safe distances) while here, we focus on testing the entire agent end-to-end for system-level speciﬁcations.
Rare event estimation.
We draw upon a rich literature on rare event probability estimation (e.g., Bucklew 2004; Rubino & Tufﬁn 2009; Rubinstein & Kroese 2017).
Importance sampling (IS) is one of the workhorses of this ﬁeld.
The closest methods to our approach are the adaptive importance sampling methods where data collected from an initial proposal distribution is iteratively used to adjust it to maximize sampling efﬁciency (e.g., Rubinstein 1997; Rubinstein & Kroese 2017;
Li et al. 2013)
These methods do not work well in our context where the failure signal is binary.
Instead, we adapt the proposal distribution using data from related, but less robust, agents.
Our approach is also different from previous works in that, to better reﬂect the practicalities of RL tasks, we explicitly separate controllable randomness (i.e., initial conditions, simulator parameters) from randomness that is neither controllable, nor observable (environment and agent randomness).
As we show, this has implications on the form of the minimum-variance proposal distribution.
In robotics, the assessment of the safety of motion control algorithms has been recognized as a critical aspect of their real-world deployment (Van Den Berg et al., 2011).
In a recent paper, extending
Janson et al.
(2018), Schmerling & Pavone (2017) proposed to use an adaptive mixture importance sampling algorithm to quantify the collision probability for an LQR controller with EKF state estimation applied to non-linear systems with a full rigid-body collision model.
Unlike our method, this work needs an analytic model of the environment.
Learning highly reliable agents.
While in this work we primarily focus on agent evaluation, rather than training, we note recent work on safe reinforcement learning (see Garc´ıa & Fern´andez, 2015, for a review).
These approaches typically rely on strong knowledge of the transition dynamics (Moldovan & Abbeel, 2012), or assumptions about the accuracy of a learned model (Berkenkamp et al., 2017; Akametalu et al., 2014), and we believe are complementary to adversarial testing, which can be viewed as a mechanism for checking whether such assumptions in fact hold.
We provide a longer discussion of this literature in Appendix F.
C ONCLUSION AND F UTURE W ORK
In this work, we argued that standard approaches to evaluating RL agents are highly inefﬁcient in detecting rare, catastrophic failures, which can create a false sense of safety.
We believe the approach and results here strongly demonstrate that adversarial testing can play an important role in assessing and improving agents, but are only scratching the surface.
We hope this work lays the groundwork for future research into evaluating and developing robust, deployable agents.
A R ISK E STIMATION WITH H EAVY - TAILED L OSSES
In this section, we expand on why empirical estimators of the expected risk using uninformed random sampling will have very high variance for problems with heavy-tailed losses.
In statistical learning theory, the objective is to ﬁnd a model θ which minimizes the expected risk , J = E x ∼ D
[ (cid:96) θ ( x )] , where (cid:96) θ ( x ) denotes the loss of the model θ on a data point x .
For example, in classiﬁcation, (cid:96) is typically the 0 − 1 loss, indicating whether θ makes the correct prediction on x .
In reinforcement learning, (cid:96) returns the negative discounted return on a rollout from state x .
To assess a model θ , since we typically can only sample from D , the expected risk can be estimated on a test set of n i.i.d.
points x i ∼ D using the empirical risk : ˆ J = 1 n (cid:80) n − 1 i =
(cid:96) θ ( x i ) .
The standard justiﬁcation for this approach is that with high probability, the empirical risk is close to the true expected risk (Valiant, 1984).
If 0 ≤ (cid:96) ( · ) ≤ a , then Hoeffding’s inequality yields
[Equation]
Equivalently, the empirical test risk is within (cid:15) of the expected risk with probability 1 − δ , provided the number of data points in the test set is at least
[Equation]
In many commonly studied settings, such as classiﬁcation with the 0 − 1 loss, or reinforcement learning with [0 , 1] -bounded rewards and ﬁxed episode lengths (Tassa et al., 2018; Beattie et al., 2016), these bounds guarantee fairly good efﬁciency.
However, for very heavy-tailed losses, these bounds become very weak.
Ensuring a constant additive error requires n =
O ( a 2 ) , and error up to a constant multiple of a still requires n = O ( a ) examples.
Using the self-driving car example from
Section 1, consider a car going on many 1 -mile-long trips.
Due to the extremely negative rewards associated with crashes, achieving a ﬁxed error bound of (cid:15) requires 10 16 more trips than would otherwise be necessary if negative rewards for crashes were bounded to the same range as normal operation.
Intuitively, because very costly events may occur with a small probability, random sampling is unlikely to detect these failure modes unless we use a very large number of random samples.
Note that for an agent with probability p of failure, lim p → 0+ (1 − p ) c/p =
e − c .
Thus, for small p , even with 2 /p experiments, there is a > 50% chance the empirical estimate will detect no failures at all, even though for a sufﬁciently catastrophic failure, this could dominate the overall expected risk.
While the exact bound on the error in the empirical estimate may depend on the particular estimator and concentration inequalities being used (Brownlees et al., 2015; Audibert et al., 2011), any approach relying solely on uninformed random sampling will face similar issues.
B P ROOFS FOR S ECTION 3.
We start with the proof of Proposition 3.2.
Let U t
=
W t c ( X t , Z t ) where W t = p X ( X t ) /q
( X t ) .
Under the condition that p X ( x ) f ( x ) = 0 whenever q ( x ) = 0 , E [ U t ] = p , hence E [ ˆ P ] = p .
Since U 1 , . . .
, U n are independent and identically distributed, Var[ ˆ P ] =
Var[ U t ] /n for any t ∈ [ n ] .
Hence, the variance of ˆ P is minimized when the variance of U t is minimized.
Since E [ U t ] = p , this variance is minimized when E [ U 2 t ] =
E [ W 2 t c 2 ( X t , Z t )] =
E [ W 2 t c ( X t , Z t )]
=
E [( W t f 1 / 2 ∗ ( X t )) 2 ] is minimized, where we used the deﬁnition of f ∗ and that c is binary-valued.
By integral CauchySchwartz, this is minimized by the proposal distribution whose density with respect to P X is proportional to f 1 / 2 ∗ , leading to the desired claim.
Notably this differs from the deterministic case, where the variance-minimizing proposal distribution has density proportional to c ( X t ) with respect to P X .
Characterizing the variance-minimizing proposal distribution for the general stochastic case, when c is not binary-valued, is an interesting open question.
Next, we prove Proposition 3.3, which stated that the rejection sampling procedure that accepts a random instance X ∼ P X with probability f 1 / 2 ( X ) produces a sample from Q f .
Let U be uniformly distributed on the [0 , 1] interval and independent of X .
Clearly, the probability that a sample produced by rejection sampling falls into a set
A ⊂ X is P ( X ∈
A | U ≤ f 1 / 2 ( X )) .
Now,
P
[Equation]
X ∈
A | U ≤ f 1 /
[Equation]
X ))
=
P
[Equation]
X
[Equation] [Equation]
Since P ( X ∈ ·| U ≤ f 1 / 2 ( X )) is a probability measure on X , it follows that the unconditional acceptance probability satisﬁes P ( U ≤ f 1 / 2 ( X ))
= (cid:82) X
f 1 / 2 ( x ) P X ( x ) , thus showing that the distribution of accepted points is Q f as required.
C P SEUDOCODE FOR FPP A DVERSARY
Algorithm 2 FPP-guided Search (FPP adversary)
Input: Sample size n repeat
Collect random initial conditions S
= { X 1 , . . .
X n } where X i ∼ P X , i ∈ [ n ]
Select X = arg max x ∈ S f ( x )
Run an experiment to generate outcome C
=
c ( X, Z ) until C =
D A GENT T RAINING D ETAILS D. E NVIRONMENTS
For the Driving domain, we use the TORCS 3D car racing game (Wymann et al., 2000) with settings corresponding to the “Fast car, no bots” setting in Mnih et al.
At each step, the agent receives an 15 -dimensional observation vector summarizing its position, velocity, and the local geometry of the track.
The agent receives a reward proportional to its velocity along the center of the track at its current position, while collisions with a wall terminate the episode and provide a large negative reward.
Each problem instance is a track shape, parameterized by a 12 -dimensional vector encoding the locations and curvatures of waypoints specifying the track.
Problem instances are sampled by randomly sampling a set of waypoints from a ﬁxed distribution, and rejecting any tracks with self-intersections.
For the Humanoid domain, we use the Humanoid Stand task from Tassa et al.
At each step, the agent receives a 67 -dimensional observation vector summarizing its joint angles and velocities, and the locations of various joints in Cartesian coordinates.
The agent receives a reward proportional to its head height.
If the head height is below 0 .
7 m, the episode is terminated and the agent receives a large negative reward.
Each problem instance is deﬁned by an initial standing pose.
To deﬁne this distribution, we sample 1 e 5 random trajectories from a separately trained D4PG agent.
We sample a random state from these trajectories, ignoring the ﬁrst 10 seconds of each trajectory, as well as any trajectories terminating in failure, to ensure all problem instances are feasible.
Together, we obtain 6 e 7 problem instances, so it is unlikely that any problem instance at train or test time has been previously seen.
D. A GENTS
We now describe the agents we used for evaluation on each task.
The focus of this work is not on training agents, and hence we leave the agents ﬁxed for all experiments.
However, we did make some modiﬁcations to decrease agent failure probabilities, as we are most interested in whether we can design effective adversaries when failures are rare, and thus there is not much learning signal to guide the adversary.
On Driving, we use an asynchronous batched implementation of Advantage Actor-Critic, using a
V-trace correction, following Espeholt et al.
We use Population-Based Training, and evolve the learning rate and entropy cost weights Jaderberg et al.
(2017), with a population size of 5 .
Each learner is trained for 1 e 9 actor steps, which takes 4 hours distributed over 100 CPU workers and a single GPU learner.
Since episodes are at most 3600 steps, this equates to roughly 270 eepisodes per learner, and 1 . 3 e 6 episodes for the entire population.
At test time, we take the most likely predicted action, rather than sampling, as we found it decreased the failure probability by roughly half.
Additionally, we used a hand-crafted form of adversarial training by training on a more difﬁcult distribution of track shapes, with sharper turns than the original distribution, since this decreased failure probability roughly 20 -fold.
On Humanoid, we use a D4PG agent, using the same hyperparameters as Barth-Maron et al.
The agent is trained for 4 e 6 learner steps, which corresponds to between 250 e 6 and 300 e 6 actor steps, which takes 8 hours distributed over 32 CPU workers and a single GPU learner.
Since episodes are at most 1000 steps, this equates to roughly 275 e 3 episodes.
We use different exploration rates on actors, as in Horgan et al.
(2018), with noise drawn from a normal distribution with standard deviation σ evenly spaced from 0 .
to 0 .
We additionally use demonstrations from the agent described in the previous section, which was used for deﬁning the initial pose distribution, following
Vecer´ık et al.
In particular, we use 1000 demonstration trajectories, and use demonstration data for half of each batch to update both the critic and policy networks.
This results in a roughly 4 -fold improvement in the failure rate.
E E XPERIMENTAL D ETAILS E. FPP D ETAILS
When constructing the training datasets, we ignore the beginning of training during which the agent fails very frequently.
This amounts to using the last 150 , 000 episodes of data on Driving and last 200 , 000 on Humanoid.
To include information about the training iteration of the agent, we simply include a single real value, the current training iteration divided by the maximum number of training iterations.
Similarly, for noise applied to the policy, we include the amount of noise divided by the maximum amount of noise.
These are all concatenated before applying the MLP.
We train both
FPP models to minimize the cross-entropy loss, with the Adam optimizer (Kingma & Ba, 2014), for 20 , 000 and 40 , 000 iterations on Driving and Humanoid respectively, which requires 4 . 5 andminutes respectively on a single GPU.
On Driving, the FPP architecture uses a 4 -layer MLP with 32 hidden units per layer and a single output, with a sigmoid activation to convert the output to a probability.
On Humanoid, since failures of the most robust agents are very rare, we use a simpliﬁed Differentiable Neural Dictionary architecture (Pritzel et al., 2017) to more effectively leverage the limited number of positive training examples.
In particular, to classify an input x , the model ﬁrst retrieves the K = 32 nearest neighbors and their corresponding labels ( x i , y i ) from the training set.
The ﬁnal prediction is then a weighted average ( b + (cid:80)
i : y i =
1 w i ) / (2 b + (cid:80) i w i ) , where b is a learned pseudocount, which allows the model to make uncertain predictions when all weights are close to 0 .
To compute weights w i , each point is embedded by a 1 -layer MLP f into 16 dimensions, and the weight of each neighbor is computed w i = κ
( f ( x ) , f ( x i )) , where κ is a Gaussian kernel, κ ( x, y )
=
exp ( (cid:107) x − y (cid:107) 22 / 2) .
We tried different hyperparameters for the number of MLP layers on Driving, and the number of neighbors on Humanoid, and selected based on a held-out test set using data collected during training.
In particular, to match real-world situations, we did not select hyperparameters based on either failure search or risk estimation experiments.
E. F AILURE S EARCH
We ran the VMC adversary for 5 e 6 experiments for each agent.
The expected cost is simply 1 /p , where p is the fraction of experiments resulting in failures.
For the FPP adversary, we ran 2 eexperiments for each agent, since failures are more common, so less experiments are necessary to estimate the failure probabilities precisely.
For the PR adversary, the adversary ﬁrst selected problem instances which caused failures on the actor with the least noise, most recent ﬁrst, followed by the
[Table]
actor with the second least noise, and so on.
We also tried a version which did not account for the amount of noise and simply ran the most recent failures ﬁrst, which was slightly worse.
For the failure search experiments on the Humanoid domain, we always evaluate the best version of each agent according to the FPP model selection procedure from Section 4.3.
We chose this because we are most interested in whether we can design effective adversaries when failures are rare, and simply choosing the ﬁnal agent is ineffective, as discussed in Appendix E.4.
We now discuss the sample size parameter n in Algorithm 2.
As discussed, using larger values of n applies more selection pressure in determining which problem instances to run experiments on, while using smaller values of n draws samples from a larger fraction of X , and thus provides some robustness to inaccuracies in the learned f .
Of course, other more sophisticated approaches may be much more effective in producing samples from diverse regions of X , but we only try this very simple approach.
For our experiments, we use n = 1000 for Driving and n = 10000 for Humanoid.
We did not perform any hyperparameter selection on n , in order to match the real-world setting where the experimenter has only a ﬁxed budget of experiments, and wishes to ﬁnd a single failure.
However, we include additional experiments to study the robustness of the FPP adversary to the choice of n .
These are summarized in Table 2.
We observe that on both domains, applying greater optimization pressure improves results, over the default choices for n we used.
However, relative to the improvements over the VMC adversary, these differences are small, and the FPP adversary is dramatically faster than the VMC adversary for all choices of n we tried.
E. R ISK E STIMATION D ETAILS
In our paper, we showed that the FPP estimator can estimate the failure probability of an agent much faster than the VMC estimator.
In particular, we showed in both the Driving and Humanoid domains that our estimator requires an order of magnitude less episodes to achieve a 3-approximation at any given conﬁdence level.
In general, we may be interested in a ρ -approximation, that is we might want the estimates to fall in the range ( p/ρ, pρ ) where p is the probability of failure that we wish to measure.
One might ask whether our results are sensitive to the choice of ρ .
In other words, did we select ρ = 3 so that our results look good?
To address this concern, we include results for lower and higher choices of ρ .
We see that the FPP estimator performs signiﬁcantly better than the VMC estimator across choices of ρ .
E. M ODEL S ELECTION
Measuring ground truth failure probabilities.
In Figure 4, we show the “ground truth” failure probabilities used for computing model robustness in Figure 2.
Each bar represents a version of the agent at a different point in training, starting from step 5 e 5 , and taking a new version every 7 elearner steps (so that there are 50 agents in total).
Failure probabilities are computed by taking the fraction of experiments resulting in failures, using 160 , 000 experiments per agent.
As in Figure 2, we show robustness ( 1 /p ) rather than failure probabilities, so that it is easier to see differences between the most robust models.
Robustness should be interpreted as the expected number of experiments until seeing a failure.
Thus, when we report robustness in Figure 2 for averages over multiple agents, we ﬁrst average the failure probabilities of these agents, before applying the recip-
[Figure]
l
[Figure]
t
i
[Figure]
a
[Figure]
l e
[Figure]
t i m a t
[Figure]
s
[Figure] [Figure]
[Figure]
rocal, which represents the expected number of experiments until failure, if the agent is randomly selected from that set.
We note that the failure probabilities we report after model selection in Figure 2 are conservative, for two reasons.
First, for the two agents which did not fail in our ground truth measurements, we use a failure probability of 1 / 160 , 000 rather than 0 .
Second, because our ground truth measurements are only noisy measurements of the true failure probability for each agent, it is possible that even an optimal model selection algorithm would not pick the optimal agent according to our ground truth measurements.
We could run the ground truth measurements for longer, but already, this required 160 , 000 ∗ 50 = 8 e 6 experiments, or 231 CPU-days.
Nonetheless, even with these conservative estimates, the FPP estimator showed signiﬁcant improvements over using the VMC estimator for model selection.
Non-monotonicity of robustness over training.
Finally, we note that the robustness is not monotonically increasing, and thus simply taking the last agent (or randomly choosing from the last few) would be a worse model selection strategy than uniform exploration with the FPP estimator.
This differs from the standard setting in deep reinforcement learning, with tightly bounded rewards, where expected return usually (roughly) monotonically increases over the course of training.
As discussed in Sections 1 and 5, when the agent is optimized using VMC, failures are observed very rarely, and thus the optimization process does not effectively decrease the failure probability, which is consistent with the non-monotonicity we observe here.
F E XTENDED R ELATED W ORK
Learning highly reliable agents.
Our results also indicate that learning highly reliable agents will likely require a signiﬁcant departure from some of current practices.
In particular, since for highly reliable systems failure events are extremely rare, any technique that uses vanilla Monte Carlo (that is, perhaps 99% of the current RL literature) is ought to fail to provide the necessary guarantees.
This is a problem that has been studied in the simulation optimization literature, but so far it has received only little attention in the RL community (e.g., Frank et al. 2008).
The training time equivalent of our setting can be viewed as a special case of Constrained MDPs (Altman, 1999), where a cost of 1 is incurred at the ﬁnal state of a catastrophic trajectory.
While recent work has adapted deep reinforcement learning techniques to handle constraints, these address situations where costs are observed frequently, and the objective is to keep expected costs below some threshold (Achiam et al., 2017; Chow et al., 2018) as opposed to avoiding costs entirely, and are not designed to speciﬁcally satisfy constraints when violations would be caused by rare events.
This suggests a natural extension to the rare failures case using the techniques we develop here.
Related work in safe reinforcement learning (see Garc´ıa & Fern´andez, 2015, for a review) tries to avoid catastrophic failures either during learning or deployment.
Approaches for safe exploration typically rely on strong knowledge of the transition dynamics (Moldovan & Abbeel, 2012), or assumptions about the accuracy of a learned model (Berkenkamp et al., 2017;
Akametalu et al., 2014), and we believe are complementary to adversarial testing approaches, which make weak assumptions, but also do not provide guarantees.
Finally, there has been signiﬁcant recent interest in training controllers that are robust to system misspeciﬁcation by exposing them to pre-speciﬁed or adversarially constructed noise applied e.g. to observation or system dynamics (Peng et al., 2017; Pinto et al., 2017; Zhu et al., 2018; Mandlekar et al., 2017)