Autor: Processa Consultoria e Treinamentos | Publicado: 2011-10-27T05:04:00-07:00

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; ACIMA DA META -&nbsp; Inflação oficial deve fechar  2012 em 6,2%, prevê OCDE.&nbsp;<!--[if gte mso 9]>     Normal   0         21         false   false   false      PT-BR   X-NONE   X-NONE                                                     MicrosoftInternetExplorer4                                                   <![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]>  <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true"
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 <![endif]-->  A inflação medida pelo Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA) deverá fechar o próximo ano em 6,2%, portanto, longe do centro da meta de 4,5%, na estimativa da Organização para a Cooperação e o Desenvolvimento Econômico (OCDE). Diante do quadro, a organização entende que o Brasil tem um desafio macroeconômico imediato que é conter a inflação sem exercer pressões sobre a taxa de câmbio.

De acordo com um estudo econômico para o Brasil, divulgado ontem pela organização, em Brasília, a inflação medida pelo IPCA deverá fechar 2011 em 6,5%, atingindo 6,2% ao final de 2012. Só em 2013, convergirá mais para o centro da meta, chegando a 5,1%. Dessa forma, em todas as projeções, a inflação está afastada do centro da meta estabelecida pelo governo brasileiro para 2011, 2012 e 2013, que é 4,5%. Essa meta tem uma margem de tolerância de 2 pontos percentuais para cima ou para baixo. Neste momento, Carlos Márcio Bicalho Cozendey, secretário de Assuntos Internacionais do Ministério da Fazenda, e Marcos Bonturi, chefe adjunto do gabinete do secretário-geral da OCDE, Agel Gurria, apresentam o documento, na sede da pasta.

A OCDE também estima que a economia brasileira crescerá apenas 3,6% em 2011. Em 2012, o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) deverá ter uma expansão um pouco menor, de 3,5%, e voltará a subir em 2013 chegando a 4%. A organização prevê ainda que o resultado primário do setor público ficará este ano em 2,9%, em relação ao PIB, e cairá para 2,5% em 2012 e 2013. Já o déficit em conta-corrente, um dos principais indicadores das contas externas, aumentará de 2,1% para 2,5% do PIB e passará para 2,7% em 2013.

O estudo demonstra preocupação ainda com as medidas que o governo tem adotado para equilibrar o valor do real ante o dólar, com restrição ao capital especulativo

Jornal- O Estado