Os grandes desafios de 2015
Autor: Thyago Américo Schio | Publicado: 2014-11-13T20:26:00-02:00

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Certamente,
2015 será um ano de grandes desafios ao país. Colhendo os frutos que o próprio
governo plantou, três grandes desafios macroeconômicos confrontarão o Brasil no
ano vindouro.&nbsp;&nbsp;



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1.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Realinhamento
dos preços administrados:



No Brasil, o termo “preços administrados” –
refere-se aos preços não livremente determinados - são insensíveis às condições
de oferta e de demanda – visto que são estabelecidos por contratos ou por órgãos
públicos.&nbsp;



Os preços administrados estão divididos nos
seguintes grupos: os que são regulados em nível federal – pelo próprio governo
federal ou por agências reguladoras federais – e os que são determinados por
governos estaduais ou municipais. No primeiro grupo, estão incluídos os preços
de serviços telefônicos, derivados de petróleo (gasolina e gás de cozinha),
eletricidade e planos de saúde. Os preços controlados por governos subnacionais
incluem a taxa de água e esgoto, o IPVA, e a maioria das tarifas de transporte
público, como ônibus municipais e serviços ferroviários.



Cabe ressaltar que atualmente, aproximadamente 25%
dos preços analisados através do IPCA (índice oficial de inflação) são preços
monitorados. Possuem, portanto, uma relevância significativa dentro do índice
de inflação (e da economia brasileira). Alterações em preços administrados
impactam significativamente sobre os preços livres da economia e a estrutura
produtiva da economia (visto que alteram-se os preços relativos).



O problema do realinhamento dos preços
administrados decorre da forma como ocorreram as reduções destes preços - mediante
uma política tributária de controle de inflação, e não mediante ganhos de
produtividade/escala, que podem sustentar preços menores. Nitidamente, a
redução dos preços administrados ocorreu visando contrabalancear as
persistentes e elevadas altas verificadas nos preços livres – estes puxaram
significativamente a inflação no país, acima de 6,5% a.a em períodos recentes.
Em suma, o governo objetivou o controle da inflação no país através de política
tributária. Ocorre que manter tais preços desalinhados dos fundamentos e da
realidade econômica do país não é algo saudável e plausível por longo período.
Indubitavelmente, a manutenção de preços congelados/reduzidos artificialmente
apenas gera distorções nos preços relativos de uma economia, causando males
maiores do que os bens que inicialmente visou. Em última instância, preços
congelados/reduzidos artificialmente resultam em redução da produção e escassez
de bens.



Não será de se espantar se em 2015, novamente o
Brasil se defrontar com um “apagão”. O setor elétrico já se defronta com
dificuldades há um bom tempo. Uma política de redução de preços (como ocorreu)
apenas estimula a demanda, exatamente em um momento em que a oferta encontra-se
pressionada e semi estagnada.&nbsp;







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2.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Desvalorização
do Real:



É
altamente provável que o ano de 2015 se encerre com o Real desvalorizado. Isto
decorre basicamente pela normalização da política monetária nos EUA (fim da
flexibilização quantitativa (QE3)). Com a elevação das taxas de juros no
exterior, é natural que a nossa economia se torne menos atrativa a investidores.
Com efeito, o Real perde valor frente a outras moedas (notadamente o dólar).&nbsp;



O primeiro problema deste fato decorre do impacto
que tal desvalorização exerce sobre a inflação no país. Sempre que a moeda
nacional é desvalorizada, ceteris
paribus, os bens comprados do exterior se tornam mais caros. E tal repasse
de preços ocorre na economia. Com efeito, a desvalorização cambial exerce um
impacto positivo sobre a (já elevada e no teto da meta) inflação.&nbsp;



Um segundo e grave problema diz respeito ao
financiamento da economia brasileira. Embora o governo brasileiro seja gigante
(com uma carga tributária próxima de 35% do seu PIB), ele não tem feito à
lição de casa e equilibrado seu orçamento, poupando recursos – agora flertando
com o fim do superávit primário e elevação do déficit nominal.&nbsp; Elevação da despoupança pública significa
menor taxa de poupança nacional (recursos são escassos...).&nbsp;



Notadamente, com a redução da liquidez
internacional (como previsto para 2015) e a valorização do dólar, dificulta-se
o financiamento da economia brasileira (o déficit em conta corrente[1]
é da ordem de 3,7% do PIB brasileiro).&nbsp;



Sintetizando o exposto, a depreciação do Real pode
dificultar a cobertura do déficit da balança de pagamentos do país. Se por um
lado, o déficit nas transações correntes tem crescido desde 2008, os
investimentos estrangeiros direto tem permanecido estável desde 2011). Portanto,
2015 possivelmente será um ano de redução na já baixíssima taxa de investimento
da economia (próxima de 15% do PIB, uma das taxas mais baixas do mundo) – e
consequentemente, redução do crescimento econômico e do potencial de
crescimento da economia para períodos futuros.&nbsp;







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3.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Elevação
da taxa SELIC:



Como evidenciado nos itens 1 e 2, 2015 será um ano
de fortes pressões inflacionárias. Indubitavelmente, o grande desafio da
política monetária será (como já está sendo) responder a tais pressões
inflacionárias sem resultar em doses massivas de elevação da taxa de juros.



Há alguns anos que o Brasil vem se defrontando com
taxas baixíssimas de crescimento econômicos. A intervenção do Estado na
economia e nos seus preços tem crescido acentuadamente. O crédito total na
economia apenas não tem sido reduzido devido ao crescimento vertiginoso dos
bancos públicos – seja em crédito total disponibilizado, seja em participação
relativa no crédito total da economia, que neste caso já passa de 50%. &nbsp;



Também se torna claro que os bancos públicos
precisam reduzir seus desembolsos, tendo em vista a segmentação do
mercado de crédito brasileiro e seu impacto na taxa de juros. A despeito do
aperto monetário via SELIC, a operação dos bancos públicos tem impactado
positivamente na taxa de inflação, visto que, basicamente, operam com taxas de
juros subsidiadas. Ou seja, a elevação da taxa SELIC pouco tem impactado na
operação dos bancos públicos. Se por um lado um aperto monetário tende a
reduzir a taxa de inflação, o mesmo não se pode dizer em relação a operação dos
bancos públicos, insensíveis a tal taxa. Nesse sentido, visando minimizar as
altas na taxa SELIC e aperfeiçoar os mecanismos de transmissão da mesma sobre a
economia e os preços, deve-se reconsiderar a forma como operam os bancos
públicos no Brasil. Não é justo o restante da sociedade brasileira não subsidiado “pagar”, e caro
por sinal, pelo conluio entre Estado e empresas “amigas do Rei”.



Por fim, a combinação da deterioração fiscal já
mencionada, com elevação da taxa de juros, põe em cheque a estabilidade da
economia, elevando assim o risco de perda do “grau de investimento” que a
economia e os títulos públicos possuem.&nbsp;










&nbsp;
















[1]
Conta corrente de uma economia é uma variável de fluxo que mede a taxa pela
qual os habitantes de um país estão concedendo ou tomando empréstimos do resto
do mundo.


&nbsp;



&nbsp;