18/02/2017 - OUTRO SOLUÇO
Autor: Paulo Brito | Publicado: 2017-06-18T23:01:00-07:00

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Soluçar é uma reação do organismo que indica que algo não vai
bem e tem que parar. Embora o soluço da economia não seja forte, mas tem sido
intercalado com espasmo. O soluço de agora vem do indicador de atividade
econômica do Banco Central, o IBC-Br, que cresceu em abril 0,28%. Em 12 meses
ele registra – 2,66%. Em comparação com o ano de 2016, de – 3,6% estão
indicando recuo numérico e fim da recessão. Mas, não expõe crescimento e sim
estagnação. O resultado do quarto mês do ano é fraco, sinalizando que o efeito
positivo do agronegócio ficou para trás e poderia ser o segundo trimestre
ligeiramente negativo. Na comparação com o IBC-Br de abril do ano passado
recuou 1,75%. Números pequenos, mas que não conduzem à bonança.



A equipe econômica do Banco Bradesco já nem se referiu ao
agronegócio e disse que o pequeno número positivo de abril foi em decorrência
do crescimento das vendas no varejo e do setor de serviços. Acredita ela que o
trimestre mostrará – 0,4% do PIB, mas não tem ainda a avaliação dos efeitos danosos,
a partir do dia 17 de maio, data da publicação da delação premiada do grupo
JBS. A cada momento o JBS se afunda. Primeiro, reduziu os abates diários;
segundo começou a pagar em 30 dias, quando fazia compras à vista; reduziu
também o número de abates; retirou o nome FRIBOI do conjunto com a JBS-FRIBOI;
colocou à venda a tradicional empresa Alpargatas, fundada em 1962; colocou a
venda outros negócios. Na volta ao Brasil, Joesley Batista, dono do grupo JBS
está incriminando o presidente da República e todo alto escalão do governo. É
sabido que os empresários recuaram em vários projetos. Engavetando-os.



Um banco médio, o Banco Fator acredita que em maio haverá
desaceleração do indicador do BC. Porém, crê em estagnação, devido à crise
política. O banco internacional, Goldman Sachs, projeta crescimento de 0,3% em
2016. No entanto, crescimento de 2,8 em 2018. 



Tempos difíceis. Desemprego em queda. Construção civil em
queda. Confiança dos consumidores e dos investidores que não se restabelecem.
Crise política e falta pulso firme para a melhoria no ambiente geral dos
negócios.