A culpa não é da crise externa...
Autor: Thyago Américo Schio | Publicado: 2013-03-31T21:37:00-03:00

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Durante a cúpula dos BRICS, realizada em março de 2013 na
África do Sul, a presidente Dilma Rousseff afirmou que a retomada do
crescimento econômico no Brasil foi fruto da política econômica do governo em
reação à crise financeira internacional. Afirmou no evento que o Brasil vem se
recuperando desde o ano passado, depois da desaleração em 2011 e 2012, dizendo
que "não foi um crescimento espontâneo, mas foi um crescimento fruto do
resultado de uma série de medidas de estímulo fiscal, tributário e
monetário".



Mesmo com o pífio crescimento de 0,9% no ano de 2012[1] a
defesa da relevância do governo para a economia foi ressaltada.&nbsp;



Para a presidente, a piora de desempenho econômico em
2012 é uma questão cíclica, causada pela crise internacional, assim como pela
menor disponibilidade de crédito, algo muito próximo da crise de 2009, e que
merece, naturalmente, as mesmas respostas: juros mais baixos, aumento da
disponibilidade de crédito por meio dos bancos públicos e, por fim, uma
política fiscal mais frouxa com redução do superávit primário.



Uma análise crítica da opinião da presidente esbarra em um
ponto crucial: não há amparo desse diagnóstico com a realidade.



Sabe-se que as economias da América Latina e Central
apresentam estruturas produtivas similares a nossa, e, portanto, devem (ou
devemos) apresentar crescimentos econômicos próximos. Vejamos dados de
crescimento econômico na região:



Panamá - 9,5%, Haiti - 6,0%, Peru - 5,9%, Bolívia - 5,0%,
Chile - 5,0%, Costa Rica - 5,0%, Nicarágua - 5,0%, México - 4,0%, Cuba - 3,0%, Argentina
- 2,0% e Paraguai -2,0%.



Sim. Só ganhamos do Paraguai em termos de crescimento
econômico. É muito difícil sustentar que a crise internacional causou uma
redução no crescimento brasileiro ao mesmo tempo em que vários países vizinhos,
inclusive mais dependentes de commodities
do que o Brasil, registraram aceleração no período.



Ainda, ao se analisar o ano de 2009, vivenciamos piora no
mercado de trabalho e redução expressiva da inflação. Algo bem distinto da
situação atual...



A insistência da estratégia atual de política econômica revela
que certamente péssimos resultados deverão vir, caso seja mantida tal estratégia.












[1]
A despeito de Programas como PAC (Programa de aceleração de crescimento), e
outros tantos que pouco soam eficazes, apensar de extremamente custosos...