HISTÓRICO - RELATÓRIO DE REBAIXAMENTO
Autor: Economia e Mercado | Publicado: 2011-08-06T05:22:00-07:00

A maior potência econômica do mundo tinha o mesmo rating, AAAA,  desde 1941. Esta alteração é mais um golpe na combalida economia americana, e com certeza terá impactos a nível mundial. Leia abaixo o relatório oficial que explica o rebaixamento.Caso não consiga visualizar essa mensagem, clique aqui. August 5, 2011       United States of America Long-Term Rating Lowered To 'AA+' On Political Risks And Rising Debt Burden; Outlook Negative   OverviewWe have lowered our long-term sovereign credit rating on the UnitedStates of America to 'AA+' from 'AAA' and affirmed the 'A-1+' short-termrating.We have also removed both the short- and long-term ratings fromCreditWatch negative.The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation planthat Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short ofwhat, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government'smedium-term debt dynamics.More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness,stability, and predictability of American policymaking and politicalinstitutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economicchallenges to a degree more than we envisioned when we assigned anegative outlook to the rating on April 18, 2011.Since then, we have changed our view of the difficulties in bridging thegulf between the political parties over fiscal policy, which makes uspessimistic about the capacity of Congress and the Administration to beable to leverage their agreement this week into a broader fiscalconsolidation plan that stabilizes the government's debt dynamics anytime soon.The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. We could lower thelong-term rating to 'AA' within the next two years if we see that lessreduction in spending than agreed to, higher interest rates, or newfiscal pressures during the period result in a higher general governmentdebt trajectory than we currently assume in our base case.Rating ActionOn Aug. 5, 2011, Standard &amp; Poor's Ratings Services lowered its long-termsovereign credit rating on the United States of America to 'AA+' from 'AAA'.The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. At the same time, Standard &amp;Poor's affirmed its 'A-1+' short-term rating on the U.S. In addition, Standard&amp; Poor's removed both ratings from CreditWatch, where they were placed on July 14, 2011, with negative implications.The transfer and convertibility (T&amp;C) assessment of the U.S.--ourassessment of the likelihood of official interference in the ability ofU.S.-based public- and private-sector issuers to secure foreign exchange fordebt service--remains 'AAA'.RationaleWe lowered our long-term rating on the U.S. because we believe that theprolonged controversy over raising the statutory debt ceiling and the relatedfiscal policy debate indicate that further near-term progress containing thegrowth in public spending, especially on entitlements, or on reaching anagreement on raising revenues is less likely than we previously assumed andwill remain a contentious and fitful process. We also believe that the fiscalconsolidation plan that Congress and the Administration agreed to this weekfalls short of the amount that we believe is necessary to stabilize thegeneral government debt burden by the middle of the decade.Our lowering of the rating was prompted by our view on the rising publicdebt burden and our perception of greater policymaking uncertainty, consistentwith our criteria (see "Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and Assumptions," June 30, 2011, especially Paragraphs 36-41). Nevertheless, we view the U.S. federal government's other economic, external, and monetary credit attributes, which form the basis for the sovereign rating, as broadly unchanged.We have taken the ratings off CreditWatch because the Aug. 2 passage ofthe Budget Control Act Amendment of 2011 has removed any perceived immediate threat of payment default posed by delays to raising the government's debt ceiling. In addition, we believe that the act provides sufficient clarity toallow us to evaluate the likely course of U.S. fiscal policy for the next fewyears.The political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see asAmerica's governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective,and less predictable than what we previously believed. The statutory debtceiling and the threat of default have become political bargaining chips inthe debate over fiscal policy. Despite this year's wide-ranging debate, in ourview, the differences between political parties have proven to beextraordinarily difficult to bridge, and, as we see it, the resultingagreement fell well short of the comprehensive fiscal consolidation programthat some proponents had envisaged until quite recently. Republicans andDemocrats have only been able to agree to relatively modest savings ondiscretionary spending while delegating to the Select Committee decisions onmore comprehensive measures. It appears that for now, new revenues havedropped down on the menu of policy options. In addition, the plan envisionsonly minor policy changes on Medicare and little change in other entitlements,the containment of which we and most other independent observers regard as key to long-term fiscal sustainability.Our opinion is that elected officials remain wary of tackling thestructural issues required to effectively address the rising U.S. public debtburden in a manner consistent with a 'AAA' rating and with 'AAA' ratedsovereign peers (see Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and Assumptions," June 30, 2011, especially Paragraphs 36-41). In our view, the difficulty in framing a consensus on fiscal policy weakens the government's ability to manage public finances and diverts attention from the debate over how toachieve more balanced and dynamic economic growth in an era of fiscalstringency and private-sector deleveraging (ibid). A new political consensusmight (or might not) emerge after the 2012 elections, but we believe that bythen, the government debt burden will likely be higher, the needed medium-termfiscal adjustment potentially greater, and the inflection point on the U.S.population's demographics and other age-related spending drivers closer athand (see "Global Aging 2011: In The U.S., Going Gray Will Likely Cost Even More Green, Now," June 21, 2011).Standard &amp; Poor's takes no position on the mix of spending and revenuemeasures that Congress and the Administration might conclude is appropriatefor putting the U.S.'s finances on a sustainable footing.The act calls for as much as $2.4 trillion of reductions in expendituregrowth over the 10 years through 2021. These cuts will be implemented in twosteps: the $917 billion agreed to initially, followed by an additional $1.5trillion that the newly formed Congressional Joint Select Committee on DeficitReduction is supposed to recommend by November 2011. The act contains nomeasures to raise taxes or otherwise enhance revenues, though the committeecould recommend them.The act further provides that if Congress does not enact the committee'srecommendations, cuts of $1.2 trillion will be implemented over the same timeperiod. The reductions would mainly affect outlays for civilian discretionaryspending, defense, and Medicare. We understand that this fall-back mechanismis designed to encourage Congress to embrace a more balanced mix ofexpenditure savings, as the committee might recommend.We note that in a letter to Congress on Aug. 1, 2011, the CongressionalBudget Office (CBO) estimated total budgetary savings under the act to be atleast $2.1 trillion over the next 10 years relative to its baselineassumptions. In updating our own fiscal projections, with certainmodifications outlined below, we have relied on the CBO's latest "AlternateFiscal Scenario" of June 2011, updated to include the CBO assumptionscontained in its Aug. 1 letter to Congress. In general, the CBO's "AlternateFiscal Scenario" assumes a continuation of recent Congressional actionoverriding existing law.We view the act's measures as a step toward fiscal consolidation.However, this is within the framework of a legislative mechanism that leavesopen the details of what is finally agreed to until the end of 2011, andCongress and the Administration could modify any agreement in the future. Evenassuming that at least $2.1 trillion of the spending reductions the actenvisages are implemented, we maintain our view that the U.S. net generalgovernment debt burden (all levels of government combined, excluding liquidfinancial assets) will likely continue to grow. Under our revised base casefiscal scenario--which we consider to be consistent with a 'AA+' long-termrating and a negative outlook--we now project that net general government debtwould rise from an estimated 74% of GDP by the end of 2011 to 79% in 2015 and 85% by 2021. Even the projected 2015 ratio of sovereign indebtedness is highin relation to those of peer credits and, as noted, would continue to riseunder the act's revised policy settings.Compared with previous projections, our revised base case scenario nowassumes that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, due to expire by the end of 2012,remain in place. We have changed our assumption on this because the majorityof Republicans in Congress continue to resist any measure that would raiserevenues, a position we believe Congress reinforced by passing the act. Keymacroeconomic assumptions in the base case scenario include trend real GDPgrowth of 3% and consumer price inflation near 2% annually over the decade.Our revised upside scenario--which, other things being equal, we view asconsistent with the outlook on the 'AA+' long-term rating being revised tostable--retains these same macroeconomic assumptions. In addition, itincorporates $950 billion of new revenues on the assumption that the 2001 and2003 tax cuts for high earners lapse from 2013 onwards, as the Administrationis advocating. In this scenario, we project that the net general governmentdebt would rise from an estimated 74% of GDP by the end of 2011 to 77% in 2015 and to 78% by 2021.Our revised downside scenario--which, other things being equal, we viewas being consistent with a possible further downgrade to a 'AA' long-termrating--features less-favorable macroeconomic assumptions, as outlined belowand also assumes that the second round of spending cuts (at least $1.2trillion) that the act calls for does not occur. This scenario also assumessomewhat higher nominal interest rates for U.S. Treasuries. We still believethat the role of the U.S. dollar as the key reserve currency confers agovernment funding advantage, one that could change only slowly over time, andthat Fed policy might lean toward continued loose monetary policy at a time offiscal tightening. Nonetheless, it is possible that interest rates could riseif investors re-price relative risks. As a result, our alternate scenariofactors in a 50 basis point (bp)-75 bp rise in 10-year bond yields relative tothe base and upside cases from 2013 onwards. In this scenario, we project thenet public debt burden would rise from 74% of GDP in 2011 to 90% in 2015 andto 101% by 2021.Our revised scenarios also take into account the significant negativerevisions to historical GDP data that the Bureau of Economic Analysisannounced on July 29. From our perspective, the effect of these revisionsunderscores two related points when evaluating the likely debt trajectory ofthe U.S. government. First, the revisions show that the recent recession wasdeeper than previously assumed, so the GDP this year is lower than previouslythought in both nominal and real terms. Consequently, the debt burden isslightly higher. Second, the revised data highlight the sub-par path of thecurrent economic recovery when compared with rebounds following previouspost-war recessions. We believe the sluggish pace of the current economicrecovery could be consistent with the experiences of countries that have hadfinancial crises in which the slow process of debt deleveraging in the privatesector leads to a persistent drag on demand. As a result, our downside casescenario assumes relatively modest real trend GDP growth of 2.5% and inflationof near 1.5% annually going forward.When comparing the U.S. to sovereigns with 'AAA' long-term ratings thatwe view as relevant peers--Canada, France, Germany, and the U.K.--we alsoobserve, based on our base case scenarios for each, that the trajectory of theU.S.'s net public debt is diverging from the others. Including the U.S., weestimate that these five sovereigns will have net general government debt toGDP ratios this year ranging from 34% (Canada) to 80% (the U.K.), with theU.S. debt burden at 74%. By 2015, we project that their net public debt to GDPratios will range between 30% (lowest, Canada) and 83% (highest, France), withthe U.S. debt burden at 79%. However, in contrast with the U.S., we projectthat the net public debt burdens of these other sovereigns will begin todecline, either before or by 2015.Standard &amp; Poor's transfer T&amp;C assessment of the U.S. remains 'AAA'. OurT&amp;C assessment reflects our view of the likelihood of the sovereignrestricting other public and private issuers' access to foreign exchangeneeded to meet debt service. Although in our view the credit standing of theU.S. government has deteriorated modestly, we see little indication thatofficial interference of this kind is entering onto the policy agenda ofeither Congress or the Administration. Consequently, we continue to view thisrisk as being highly remote.OutlookThe outlook on the long-term rating is negative. As our downside alternatefiscal scenario illustrates, a higher public debt trajectory than we currentlyassume could lead us to lower the long-term rating again. On the other hand,as our upside scenario highlights, if the recommendations of the CongressionalJoint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction--independently or coupled withother initiatives, such as the lapsing of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for highearners--lead to fiscal consolidation measures beyond the minimum mandated,and we believe they are likely to slow the deterioration of the government'sdebt dynamics, the long-term rating could stabilize at 'AA+'.On Monday, we will issue separate releases concerning affected ratings inthe funds, government-related entities, financial institutions, insurance,public finance, and structured finance sectors. Related Criteria And ResearchUnited States of America 'AAA/A-1+' Ratings Placed On CreditWatchNegative On Rising Risk Of Policy Stalemate, July 14, 2011U.S. Weekly Financial Notes: Soft Patch Or Quicksand?, Aug. 5, 2011Sovereign Government Rating Methodology And Assumptions, June 30, 20112011 Midyear Credit Outlook: Unresolved Economic And Regulatory Issues Loom Large, June 22, 2011Global Aging 2011: In The U.S., Going Gray Will Likely Cost Even MoreGreen, Now, June 21, 2011United States of America 'AAA/A-1+' Rating Affirmed; Outlook Revised ToNegative, April 18, 2011Fiscal Challenges Weighing On The 'AAA' Sovereign Credit Rating On The Government Of The United States, April 18, 2011A Closer Look At The Revision Of The Outlook On The U.S. Government Rating, April 18, 2011Banking Industry Country Risk Assessments, March 8, 2011Behind The Political Brinkmanship Of Raising The U.S. Debt Ceiling, Jan.18, 2011U.S. Government Cost To Resolve And Relaunch Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac Could Approach $700 Billion, Nov. 4, 2010Global Aging 2010: In The U.S., Going Gray Will Cost A Lot More Green,Oct. 25, 2010,Après Le Déluge, The U.S. Dollar Remains The Key International Currency," March 10, 2010Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: United States of America, Feb. 1, 2010.  ContatosPrimary Credit Analyst:Nikola G Swann, CFA, FRM,Toronto(1) 416-507-2582;Secondary Contacts:John Chambers, CFA,New York (1) 212-438-7344; David T Beers, London (44) 20-7176-7101 MídiaMarcos Viesi,São Paulo(55) 11-3039-9748            Standard &amp; Poor's Av. Brigadeiro Faria Lima, 201 - 18º andar - PinheirosCEP 05426-100  - São Paulo - SPTel.: +55 11 3039-9700Fax.: +55 11 3039-9701     Caso você não queira receber mais estas mensagens, por favor envie um e-mail para privacy@standardandpoors.com com o título "Remover".             Cadastre-se gratuitamente em nosso website: www.standardandpoors.com.brComentários, perguntas e sugestões: Clique aquiwww.standardandpoors.com.br        Assuntos Regulatórios e Disclaimers   l   Aviso de Privacidade   l   Termos de UsoCopyright (c) 2011 Standard &amp; Poor's, uma divisão da The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.Todos os direitos reservados