População Urbana Excede a Rural na China: poderá o Dragão chinês manter-se de pé?
Autor: Marcos Vinícius de Figueiredo | Publicado: 2012-02-02T10:57:00-02:00

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&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Semana passada recebemos importante informação que creio ter sido subestimada, considerando suas possíveis implicações para o mundo: a população urbana ultrapassou a população rural na China. Os efeitos desta mudança na geografia chinesa, se a interpretarmos segundo a ‘Teoria da Modernização’, podem estremecer não apenas a sociedade chinesa, mas também a política internacional no médio e no longo prazo. Esta teoria baseia-se na ideia de que industrialização e urbanização seriam dois processos sociais que fazem parte do processo normal da história e que eles levariam necessariamente à democratização de uma sociedade. Se juntarmos esta perspectiva com a ‘Teoria da Paz Democrática’, a qual defende que democracias não entram em guerras com seus pares, poderíamos concluir que a China se tornará um foco de paz na política mundial contemporânea. Mas se os governantes chineses não souberem como fazer esta transição democrática, insistindo num governo de partido único, que não reconhece as liberdades civis e os direitos políticos de seus nacionais, os efeitos dessa modernização podem ser desestabilizadores. Embora uma desintegração da China, como ocorreu na antiga URSS no início da década de 1990, seja pouco provável devido ao fato de que mais de 90% de seus cidadãos são da mesma etnia, a han (chineses étnicos), é possível que comecem a surgir pressões consideráveis para que ocorram aberturas políticas no partido comunista chinês. Se elas não forem atendidas, provável é que o país viva uma Primavera Chinesa, mesmo porque, no mundo interdependente de hoje, o exemplo das revoltas árabes tem espreitado todas as remanescentes ditaduras atuais, como Cuba, Coreia do Norte, além da própria China. E, caso ocorra realmente esta liberalização no país, é preciso ficar atento para a incorporação cívica das mais de 50 etnias restantes que o compõem junto com a etnia han, dentre as quais a tibetana é apenas a mais famosa. As grandes mudanças socioeconômicas que a China experimenta hoje, como aumento da classe média, expansão da pesquisa científica acompanhada de intercâmbio com outros países ocidentais ou orientais, enfim, a consolidação de uma sociedade civil mais plural, certamente irão abalar no médio prazo a hegemonia do Partido Comunista Chinês. Será que ele já tem os seus dias contados?