Alemanha sai da Zona do Euro?
Autor: Cristina Helena | Publicado: 2012-09-29T05:02:00-07:00


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Ontem, 28 de setembro de 2012, o jornal Valor Econômico repercutiu uma
matéria de Martin Wolf com o título "Saída é uma opção para a
Alemanha".


Na opinião do autor, a Alemanha possui fortes incentivos para optar por sair
da zona do Euro. Segundo o autor, a Alemanha acumulou um volume líquido de créditos
a receber com o resto do mundo porque tem grandes superávits em conta corrente.
Não vê o autor que a criação da moeda comum foi para a Alemanha um recurso que
evitou a forte apreciação do marco que, por sua vez, inibia a competitividade
dos produtos alemães. Para o autor, a "depreciação" obtida com a
utilização da moeda compartilhada pode explicar o porquê a produtividade por
hora trabalhada cresceu mais lentamente na Alemanha do que no Reino Unido ou
nos Estados Unidos entre 1999 e 2011. A pensar....


O certo é que pesa na balança Alemã o horizonte que se traduz em longa
recessão com pressões deflacionárias e a estimada independência do Bundesbank!
Mas, esquece-se Martin Wolf que para sair da Zona do Euro, a Alemanha deve
solicitar sua exclusão da Comunidade Europeia. Assim, esta deixaria de se
beneficiar do conjunto de regras que tornam comuns as tarifas externas e isenta
de tarifas as trocas entre os países membro. Além disso, a história mostra que
uma Alemanha forte é temida por seus vizinhos fronteiriços e que os pactos econômicos
que hoje alicerçam a Comunidade Europeia e a Zona do Euro foi erguida com a
finalidade de conter a Alemanha e garantir a paz.


Desta forma, entendo que não há uma opção de saída viável política,
econômica&nbsp; da Zona do Euro para a Alemanha!


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