Algo sobre o policymaker (parte 1)
Autor: Renato Couto | Publicado: 2015-10-04T11:24:00-07:00

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Sem maiores conjecturas matemáticas anteriores, são 3 as condições de equilíbrio
perseguidas quanto a inflação e produto:



I)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
W0 (0) &lt; Winf

&nbsp;β &lt; 1/2

II)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
W0 (1) &gt; Winf

β &gt; ½ (1/1-p)

III)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
W0 (0) &gt; Winf &gt; W0 (1)

½ &nbsp;&lt; β &lt; ½ (1/1-p)



Sendo β a “importância” do
segundo período no “bem estar social”, onde:



W = welfare = (produto potencial-
produto) – ½ (importância &nbsp;atribuída a
inflação pela sociedade x inflação esperada)



O policymaker faz uma opção (ou é
“conduzido” a esta por conta de uma sequencia de ações de curto prazo entre I)
inflacionar no 1º período e explorar o tradeoff; II) Postergar a carga Inflacionária
para o segundo período ou III) o policymaker tentará inferir a crença dos
agentes econômicos (sociedade). Se esta trabalha em função de inflação do
período 1 &gt; zero, o policymaker deverá escolher inflação = zero, entretanto
se a socidade acredita em π = zero, o policymaker deverá escolher π &gt; zero,
ou seja, o policymaker ajusta em um ponto entre π &gt; 0 e π = b/a, onde b = a
relação entre inflação e o produto e “a” = a importância atribuída a inflação
pela sociedade.



A partir do momento em que o
policymaker não surpreender mais os agentes econômicos, provavelmente suas
ações não irão causar impacto nas variáveis reais.



Numa economia em que a moeda não
é neutra – nem no curto nem no longo prazo – o policymaker para adquirir e
sobretudo manter reputação a fim de influenciar futuramente os agentes, deve
solucionar os problemas a seu alcance: inflação e desemprego. É necessária não
somente a ação, mas o sucesso desta, para geração e propagação de
credibilidade.



Vejamos o atual momento, quando
os agentes (em sua maioria tomadores de recursos – até mesmo incluindo neste
meio, os assalariados, partindo da premissa que ao venderem sua força de
trabalho estão “antecipando” recebíveis, pagos pelos empresários face
expectativa de lucro e que cobram determinado juro, colocando “preço” no
trabalho) reclamam quanto a elevada taxa Selic. Se o BACEN não ajustar sua taxa
nominal, diminuindo-a conforme a inflação cai, a taxa aumentará ainda mais. A
diferença do PIB aumenta, a inflação cai mais rápido e as taxas reais aumentam
(ainda mais) com a economia entrando numa espiral deflacionária.



Um adendo: com isso parece lógica
a reestruturação dos preços dos combustíveis – não só por buscar equalizar os
preços internacionais, mas ao aumentar a pressão inflacionária
(intencionalmente), ocorrerá o inverso e a taxa real diminui, adiando a
necessidade (momentânea) de redução da Selic cobrada pela sociedade.



Os componentes da demanda agregada sensíveis a
taxa de juro, reagem ao longo prazo real, enquanto o policymaker tenta
controlar apenas o curto prazo nominal.



Quanto maior a incerteza sobre o
policymaker, maior a possibilidade de viés inflacionário e quanto maior o peso
dado pelos agentes econômicos, provavelmente suas ações não irão causar impacto
nas variáveis reais.



Ajuda luxuosa: Bancos Centrais: Teoria e Prática (Alan S. Blinder)