In Memoriam R. Buckminster Fuller 1895-1983 Herman Kahn 1922-1983
Autor: José Galisi Filho | Publicado: 2015-03-17T11:22:00+01:00

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The passing of Buckminster Fuller and Herman
  Kahn deprived us, within one month, of two remarkable minds, communicators,
  and technological optimists. They came from very different backgrounds:
  Fuller the fifth generation of his New England family to go to Harvard, Kahn
  the son of East European immigrants living in Bayonne, New Jersey. Fuller
  became an influential inventor, architect, futurist, and poet; Kahn a
  physicist, systems analyst, and futurist. Fuller gave forecasters the concept
  of energy slaves, Kahn offered the multifold trend. Both saw technology as
  the means to bring wealth and a good life to every future inhabitant of
  spaceship Earth. And both had the rare ability to stimulate and inspire—and
  this will be most sorely missed.



I had the great pleasure of knowing Herman
  Kahn personally and was invariably astounded by his incredibly fast and
  brilliant mind. I always felt his tongue had difficulty keeping pace with his
  brain. He tried to talk rapidly to close the gap—the result was that the
  uninitiated often found him hard to understand.



Herman was at the RAND Corporation in its days
  of glory—the strategic weapons analyst par
  excellence. He was once labeled the Mort Sahl of national strategy. By
  1960, he was blossoming into a global futurist and formed his own think
  tank—the Hudson Institute. Herman on the Hudson grew a beard and assumed the
  appearance of an ancient prophet (or at least the Ancient Mariner).
  Paradoxically, he appealed to the establishment elders (government and
  industry) with his espousal of nuclear strength and economic growth, while
  the patrician Fuller attracted the antiestablishment types (hippies in the 1960s,
  environmentalists in the 1970s) with his Dymaxion map and geodesic dome.





Kahn’s first book, On
  Thermonuclear War, did not make him appear to many as an optimist. But
  it did bring him to international prominence. James R. Newman, an editor of
  the Scientific American, called it “a moral
  tract on mass murder.” Here is an excerpt from Newman’s memorable review:



Is
  there really a Herman Kahn? It is hard to believe: Doubts cross one’s mind
  almost from the first page of this deplorable book: no one could write like
  this; no one could think like this. Perhaps the whole thing is a staff hoax
  in bad taste. . . . This evil and tenebrous book, with its loose-lipped
  pieties and its hayfoot-strawfoot logic, is permeated with a blood-thirsty
  irrationality such as I have not seen in my years of reading.



Even within RAND there was strong reaction.
  Richard Bellman was impelled to write to the Washington
  Post that “I myself do not have these troglodytic, apocalyptic visions
  of Kahn.” 

 


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<![endif]-->




 

  
Twenty-two years later, Herman produced The Coming Boom; it does not refer to a nuclear
  holocaust but to America’s economic rebirth.1 He leaves us with a
  vision of a happy future:



Unless my
  prognostications are disastrously wrong, a revitalized America—revitalized in
  terms of tra­ditional values, of world-wide status and influence, and of
  citizenship and morale, as well as of economic improvement—seems to me very
  probable, and with sensible social and economic policies, a near certainty.

Economist Herbert Stein, in his review of this
  work, concludes:



Kahn’s
  purpose goes beyond objective, value-free analysis and prediction. His
  purpose is also inspiration and prescription. He wants the world to come out the way he describes
  {wealthier, better, and happier}. He believes, certainly correctly, that the
  probability will be greater if certain policies are followed. . . . He is in
  the position of the Redskins coach trying to inspire his players to believe
  that they can win, as well as instructing them on how to do it. Moreover,
  this inspiration can work. . . . [Fortune, October 4, 1982].







Kahn’s favorite analysis tool after leaving
  RAND seemed to be list-making. Alter­native futures, new social classes, and
  ideologies were described with machine-gun like bursts of words and phrases,
  i.e., checklists. Another “tool” he used with devastating effect was his wit.
  He could announce to a Congressional Subcommittee that “man has been on the
  earth a million years, and I’ve studied every one of them.” He could talk
  about cloning Herman Kahn and admit that his wife did not think the world
  could stand two Hermans. He had a gift for the clever word or
  phrase—“educated incapacity,” “thinking the unthinkable,” “C4I2
  systems,” “the Japanese century,” etc.



Woe to him who would attempt to argue with the
  master after one of his presentations! No one could best Herman in debate.
  Like John F. Kennedy, he loved to perform in front of an audience, confident
  of his superior oneupmanship. In matching wits, he was intensely democratic,
  willing to take on college students as well as corporate leaders, liberally
  giving of his time to all.



He has enriched and nettled us, he has
  challenged and entertained us. He could be outrageous, but his shtick was never, ever dull.

Herman, we salute you with a list:



H. Kahn

dazzling intellect

fearless iconoclast

fascinating showman

anti-new class establishmentarian

middle class with traditional values

true democrat

nuclear use theorist

Talmudist manque

“have 300 slides, will travel”

friend

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; HAROLD A. LINSTONE Senior
  Editor

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  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Reference"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Reference"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
  
  
 
<![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>

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 mso-style-parent:"";
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<![endif]-->




 

  




 


In: TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE 24, 181-182 (1983)