Could an Android turn against its creator?
Autor: rodrigottr | Publicado: 2012-01-15T22:31:00-08:00



A largely mentioned subject on science fiction is the possibility of the creation turning against the creator. Particularly on the movie Blade Runner, directed by Ridley Scott, androids (or replicants) named as Nexus-6 take over a space ship for coming back from outer space and meeting their creator for the sake of prolonging their by factory limited lives. 

And as reality can sometimes copy fiction that movie remembers us of one company which we are going to analyze on this blog, preparing us for a next blog when we are going to analyze the mobile market for 2012.

The company, as you guys have already guessed, is Google and its creation: Android.

As we all know, Android was the answer from Google to Apple’s iPhone who was extremely successful, and has in less than one year grabbed the largest market share in many markets and global market. 

That OS has the possibility of being modified in the manufacturer and carriers interests. That characteristic has made it widely adopted by all those who wanted to have a bite of the billion dollar market created by Apple’s iPhone and iPad, but had also a price.



A broken ecosystem



That price was the fragmentation of Android’s ecosystem. As most manufacturers don’t release all the updates for its phones right when Google releases it, a large installed base of Android phones remain on older software versions while new phones are released with new software. 

Not for blaming only carriers and manufacturers, Google is also a company who likes to innovate by a trial and error strategy. And because of that some nonsense like the Android 3.0 HoneyComb, only for tablets witch was released 10 months before Android 4.0 IceCreamSandwich (tablets and smartphones) while there was many manufacturers selling thousands of tablets on market running the Android 2.0.

A even worse kind of fragmentation is the one who began with Amazon’s Kindle Fire. Powered with a very personalized by Amazon version of Android the Fire has access only to Amazon App Store, which has only 10,000 from 200,000 Apps available on Google’s Store. 

That fragmentation could get harder if other manufacturers release similar subsided tablets or smartphones like a rumored Facebook phone. But why Google cares about that?





What is Google’s interest on Android?



Google has no interest on Android. Google is truly interested on your data, which Android can capture from your phone and feed Google servers with lots of information for making search better and AdSense better.

Because of that, Google doesn’t really cares if your Android is buggy or fragmented if it remains good enough for you to keep using it. That is their objective. So the first kind of fragmentation don’t really bothers Google. The second kind of fragmentation, the one Amazon started, that one frightens Google a lot since your information probably can’t be captured the same way it is from a normal Google device. Which means Android could be used by competitors against Google’s interest.

But keeping Android a healthy and integrated ecosystem is necessary for keeping it competitive which Android definitely is by now but we know there are new upcoming challengers like Mozilla’s B2G and Samsung’s Tizen probably this year. Also there is Microsoft’s Windows Phone that, even not being a strong treat, must be considered a treat by Google, and that leads us to a possible dilemma for Google.



Could Google close Android?




A - By not closing Android (and it isn’t anymore a much open platform) Google’s risk is to let fragmentation get more wild and kill Androids competitiveness which could impact on phone sales. Any other platform, being more open and more immune to fragmentation then Android (as a HTML5 based platform could be), could have the same fast growth Android had since mobile business is a fast market where people buy new hardware in periods smaller then 24 months. 

B - By closing it (and this is the worst choice) Google ensures a more integrated and competitive ecosystem but, kills its manufacturers and carriers best interests which is: differentiation. 

On both possibilities Google would be giving lots of ground for the new challengers, Windows Phone, Tizen and Mozilla’s B2G. 

Tizen would obviously be the first choice of the largest smartphone maker in the world, Samsung, and other players like LG, HTC, Sony, ZTE, ASUS would be able to choose between Tizen , B2G, or Windows Phone. While most of them would still manufacture phones with Android, but having Tizen, B2G or Windows Phone as a plan B or C. 

That obviously is a possibility coming in the horizon which can also not to come true. Which means: even highly fragmented Android remains competitive enough and other players don’t repeat what Amazon did with Kindle Fire and Androids consolidate itself as the new Windows.



What to expect



For next 12 months you can be sure Android will lead sales as it gains market on developing economies and prices come down. Until then there will be no big chances for Windows Phone to become a relevant platform and that panorama can only change with the introduction of B2G or Tizen or Google suddenly closing Android for preventing it to be used by competitors with Amazon's shape


Google closing Android isn’t a smart movement since that means the suicide of the ecosystem by a massive droping of from manufacturers and carriers, but must be considered possible since executives not always make smart movements. Even if that is not what we have seen from Google who has shown itself a brilliant chess player. 

Even if Androids fragmentation runs wild and many more manufacturers make their own versions of Kindle Fire for competing against Google, Google still optimizes its objective of being on pockets of people and collecting data and selling ads with an uncompetitive Android more then with a closed Android, which would immediately impact on the support from carriers and manufacturers.