POPULAÇÃO
Autor: Profº  Márcio Alex | Publicado: 2012-03-27T10:37:00-07:00

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 <![endif]-->  População mundial chega a 7 bilhões de pessoas, diz ONUA população mundial vai atingir a marca de 7 bilhões de pessoas na próxima segunda-feira (31), de acordo com a Organização das Nações Unidas (ONU), que usou estimativas de demografia e selecionou a data de forma simbólica para debater o tema e discutir ideias de crescimento e sustentabilidade.O número será alcançado apenas 12 anos depois de um bebê nascido em Sarajevo ter sido nomeado pela ONU como o 6º bilionésima pessoa a nascer, e 24 anos depois de o 5º bilionésimo ter nascido na Bósnia.Segundo o Departamento do Censo dos Estados Unidos, entretanto, o dado das Nações Unidas é precoce, e a população mundial é de "apenas" 6,97 bilhões no final de outubro. A marca de 7 bilhões, segundo o dado dos demógrafos americanos, chegaria apenas em abril do próximo ano.Velocidade de crescimento
O crescimento da população mundial nas últimas décadas foi rápido, impulsionado especialmente por uma maior expectativa de vida - a média atual é de 68 anos, quando era de apenas 48 anos em 1950. A velocidade de aumento populacional começa a diminuir de ritmo, entretanto, graças a taxas de natalidade cada vez menores. Depois de a população crescer até 2% ao ano na década de 1960, a taxa de aumento do número de pessoas no mundo está se estabilizando em metade disso.&nbsp;
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 <![endif]-->  Segundo a previsão mais atual da ONU, vão ser necessários 14 anos para que surja mais um bilhão de pessoas no mundo, e a população mundial só deve chegar a dez bilhões de pessoas no fim do século. A mudança na tendência não só vai fazer com que o ritmo de crescimento seja mais lento, mas como vai gerar um envelhecimento da população, criando sociedades com mais pessoas idosas do que jovens. Isso vai fazer com que a população "envelheça". Segundo o relatório da ONU, em 2011 há no mundo 893 milhões de pessoas com mais de 60 anos, mas no meio do século este número passará de 2,4 bilhões.  Mundo heterogêneo
Apesar de ser apresentada como um único bloco, a população mundial vive momentos muito heterogêneos em relação a seu tamanho e sua taxa de crescimento. Cerca de 60% da população mundial vive na Ásia. Somente na China e na Índia, juntas, há mais de 2,5 bilhões de pessoas. A África tem 15% das pessoas do mundo atual, enquanto um quarto da população vive no resto do mundo (Américas, Oceania e Europa). No Brasil, a população não chega a 200 milhões.  O quadro futuro vai mudar bastante, entretanto. Enquanto a população da Europa tem uma taxa de fecundidade de apenas 1,53 - estimativa do número médio de filhos que uma mulher teria até o fim de seu período reprodutivo, o que indica envelhecimento e diminuição da população - na África a taxa de fertilidade chega a 4,64. Na América Latina a taxa é de 2,3, Na América do Norte e na Ásia de 2,03 e na Oceania de 2,49.  Enquanto no Reino Unido, o número de pessoas com mais de 85 anos dobrou entre 1985 e 2010, o percentual de pessoas com menos de 16 anos caiu de 21% para 19% no mesmo período. No sul da África, por outro lado, a previsão é de que a população triplique em 40 anos. Segundo dados divulgados pela rede britânica BBC, enquanto a fertilidade global caiu de cinco para 2,5 crianças desde 1950, as mulheres de Zâmbia têm seis filhos, em média.  Segundo a ONU, um quinto da população mundial vive em países com alta fertilidade. É ali que a população mais cresce, e que pode chegar a 2 bilhões de pessoas em 2050.