Adivinho? Não... Matemático!!!
Autor: Wagner Martins | Publicado: 2012-10-04T15:44:00-03:00



Sinceramente eu me considero um
brasileiro ufanista e apaixonado pelo meu país. Adoro as pessoas, as paisagens, a
economia, mas as diretrizes macroeconômicas do país não! Sai presidente, entra
presidente e a ladainha é sempre a mesma... Os pobres... o povo... a educação...
a saúde... e não sai disso. E o nosso país piorando economicamente. A pobreza está na deterioração da classe média. Felizmente esta afirmação já é observada no discurso do debate de Obama e Romney.&nbsp;TEMOS que ser a quinta
maior economia do mundo, por que tempos a quinta maior
população do mundo. E hoje, o consumo das maiores economias, de maneira bastante indireta, deve estar atrelado às maiores populações.

Parece que recebemos uma praga ao
compor o nosso maravilhoso hino nacional onde, de maneira determinística
registraram: “deitado eternamente...”. &nbsp;E
ainda estamos deitados. &nbsp;Veja pelo
gráfico abaixo que o crescimento do PIB brasileiro vem a passos milimétricos e
levando-se em consideração o crescimento vegetativo da população. Nosso
crescimento econômico será sempre pífio.

Gosto da gestão presidencial da
Dilma mais do que Vargas, mas foi Fernando Henrique quem fez mais pelo nosso crescimento
que os demais. Agora Juscelino e Lula foram podres.







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Repare que apenas 3 séries sobem: A de 1947 a 1949, quando começou a ser analisada e diga-se de passagem os
maiores das séries. A da década de 90 que obteve uma alavancagem excepcional, e na
década de 2010 que estamos pelo menos andando de lado. No fim da década de 40,
o então presidente e militar Dutra, que economicamente aumentou o valor da
moeda em relação ao dólar americano e gerenciou com mão-de-ferro os salários e os sindicatos de Vargas, com isso conseguiu um recorde do Consumo Final do PIB em pontos percentuais.



Na década de 90 registramos uma grande
recessão econômica com o Plano Collor II (vermelho) e uma continuada queda do PIB. Somente
no fim do governo do Itamar (amarelo) e o seu então sociólogo Fernando Henrique no ministério da fazenda
foi que houve um crescimento assustador do PIB e perdurou até o fim do mandato do presidente Fernando Henrique (azul), que,
economicamente falando, ele foi “O Cara” para o Brasil. Não sou político e nem
tenho aspirações a ser. Apenas torço para que o meu país cresça e se posicione
realmente aonde ele deveria estar.

Todas as vezes que Lula (gestão em vermelho no próximo gráfico) se
candidatou à presidência eu votei nele. Quase desisti, mas votei! E depois de praticamente uma década no poder a gente percebe que esse presidente não agregou nada à economia
brasileira, a não ser o jeito marketeiro que ele deve ter aprendido com as agências de marketing que o colocou na presidência. Tudo bem que em 2008 a culpa não foi
dele. Mas este seu argumento fica pior, pois demonstrou que hoje o país está à mercê da economia mundial. Diferente
da China, Rússia, México, Índia, até mesmo da África do Sul. Dá uma olhadinha
no PIB da Angola!!! Por favor, não vá chorar... Aquilo tudo é verdade mesmo. E todos estes países citados vão
na contramão da economia mundial.



O fato é que, exceto na década de
90, em todas as outras décadas estamos sempre com o indicador de Consumo Final piorando. Sempre do começo da década
para o fim. Se a gente fazer uma
média de 1947, 1957, 1967, 1977 até 2007 o resultado vai ser o do gráfico da Média Histórica, o que pressupõe que a economia do Brasil aquece somente no início das décadas apresentando fortes sinais de recessão nos anos intermediários da
década (veja a linha de tendência pontilhada). Então preste bem atenção na adivinhação do Pai Waguim: "Pela análise do gráfico abaixo, teremos um resultado bom apenas até o ano de 2012, de maneira estável &nbsp;economicamente, depois o PIB Brasileiro despencará até 2015. Em &nbsp;2016 teremos certo crescimento no PIB, mas nunca como os de 2010, 2011 e 2012. E depois disso é apenas aguardar o fim da década para um próximo ciclo de crescimento do país. Quem viver verá!".&nbsp;Aposto como a sua vida financeira e a da sua empresa estão atreladas neste ciclo. Moral da História: Os próximos anos prósperos acontecerá somente em 2020. Alguém discorda???









fonte:&nbsp;http://www.brasil.gov.br/sobre/economia/indicadores/scn_cty?x=&amp;fim=01-10-2022&amp;inicio=01-10-2020



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