Investimento estrangeiro forte em setembro
Autor: Starnet 15 | Publicado: 2013-10-25T14:23:00-03:00





Credit Suisse&nbsp; 25/10/2013


 

  
Foreign
  investment in fixed-income securities still very 
strong in September

 


  
   

    
&nbsp;

   

    
Overview: The current-account deficit
    was $2.6bn in September, much 
lower than the deficit of the previous months
    and similar to that of 
September 2012. September’s lower current-account
    deficit was 
mainly due to a higher trade surplus and a net inflow of
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
remittances of profits and dividends, the first net inflow 
since January
    2000. The current-account deficit in rolling 
12-month terms remained stable
    at 3.6% of GDP ($80.5bn) in 
September 2013. Foreign direct investments
    (FDI) totaled $4.8bn 
in September, in line with our forecast and very
    similar to the
&nbsp;monthly average so far this year. In cumulative 12-month
    terms, 
FDI increased to $61.5bn, reducing the gap to the current-account
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
deficit. Foreign investment in fixed-income securities totaled $7.2bn 
in
    September and $25bn from the date the Tax on 
Financial Transactions (IOF)
    on these investments was removed 
(June 4) through October 23 (latest data
    available).
&nbsp;We expect the current-account deficit to stabilize at around
    3.6% 
of GDP until the end of the year. 

We forecast that the rolling
    12-month FDI will increase to $65bn by
&nbsp;the end of the year, owing mainly to
    the payment for oil exploration 
concessions. The figures already available
    for October suggest that 
FDI will be significant for the month and that
    there will be a deceleration
&nbsp;in portfolio investments.

   

    
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Foreign direct investments (FDI) totaled
$4.8bn in September, higher than the inflows of $3.8bn in August and $4.4bn in
September 2012. The result was in line with our forecast and the median market
consensus. In cumulative 12-month terms, FDI rose from $61.1bn in August to
$61.5bn in September (Exhibit 3). The FDI breakdown for September shows that
intercompany loans posted a deficit of $0.3bn. Thus, FDI in equity capital
($5.1bn) accounts for all FDI inflows into the country in September. Each
transaction for FDI in equity capital amounted to $0.5bn or less in September.
The Central Bank of Brazil expects FDI of $5.2bn in October, given that the
result through October 23 totaled $4.2bn. 



Foreign
portfolio investments (in equities and fixed-income securities traded in
Brazil) posted a net inflow of $9.5bn in September, versus an inflow of $6.2bn
in August and an outflow of $0.5bn in September 2012. Investments in equities
accounted for an inflow of $2.2bn last month. Net inflows into fixed-income
securities traded in Brazil posted a surplus of $7.2bn in September and $24.9bn
from the withdrawal of the IOF levy on June 4 through 23 October.
In 12-month terms, foreign portfolio investments rose from $31.2bn in August to
$41.1bn in September. According to the Central Bank of Brazil,
foreign investment into fixed income securities totaled $0.9bn in October
through 23, and there was an outflow of $0.3bn in equities in the same period.



Déficit em conta corrente em setembro é o dobro do previsto  pelo BC





&nbsp;



Por Alex Ribeiro e Eduardo Campos |  Valor 25/10

&nbsp;



BRASÍLIA  -&nbsp;O Brasil registrou, em  setembro, déficit de US$ 2,629 bilhões em suas transações correntes com outros  países, conta que já acumula saldo negativo de US$ 60,416 bilhões desde o início  do ano, informou nesta sexta-feira o Banco Central (BC).
O déficit previsto pelo próprio BC era de US$ 1,3 bilhão. Para o ano, a  previsão é de conta negativa em US$ 75 bilhões.
Em 12 meses, a diferença entre o que país gastou e o que recebeu nas  transações internacionais relativas a comércio, serviços, rendas e  transferências unilaterais alcançou US$ 80,507 bilhões, o equivalente a 3,6% do  Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) estimado pela autoridade monetária para o mesmo  período.
Ainda em setembro, o Brasil registrou déficit de US$ 1,224 bilhão no balanço  de pagamentos em setembro. No mesmo mês de 2012, havia registrado leve  superávit, de US$ 84 milhões.
Apesar do resultado negativo de setembro, nos dados acumulados no ano de  janeiro a setembro, o balanço de pagamentos segue superavitário, em US$ 2,313  bilhões. Em igual período do ano passado, porém, o superávit era bem maior, em  US$ 22,964 bilhões.
O déficit no balanço de pagamentos em setembro é resultado de um déficit de  US$ 2,629 bilhões na conta corrente, que não foi integralmente coberto pelos  ingressos líquidos na conta capital e financeira, de US$ 1,506 bilhão no  mês.

(Alex Ribeiro e Eduardo Campos |  Valor)