Why are smartphone growth rate sales slowing?
Autor: rodrigottr | Publicado: 2011-11-30T19:23:00-08:00





According to Tomi Ahonen’s Consulting
there are more mobile phones in the world then there are toothbrushes. With something
around 4.6 billion mobile phones out there that fact makes us think why mobile
phones are so important to us. Obviously is not about the mobile itself but I
guess for human beings there is an absurd importance to communicate with others
on the daily life. Information is necessary for every little decision we make
and without it sometimes is difficult to live one single day. 



But according to Vision Mobile consultancy only 27% of the phones sold on the last year where smartphones.
That obviously is a big number but clearly shows the majority still uses feature
phones. That number isn’t also about how many phones are in peoples pockets. Is
about how many phones where sold in 2011. That, according to Vision Mobile, is
about 1,6 billion in which only 431 million where smartphones. We can’t
estimate how many of those 4.6 billion phones are smartphones but based on
smartphones penetration from this year we can say that it might be a
fraction much smaller than 27% based on the fact that on previous years
smartphone sales where smaller.



Now let’s think a little about how
are those guys that on last three years bought smartphones, who they are and
what they want from a phone.



Based on the Diffusion of Innovations theory from Everett Rogers there are groups os different people more
or less likely to adhere to a new technology or to wait until this
technology to get more mature before jumping in. These groups are the
innovators (2.5%) the early adopters (13.5%) the early majority (34%), the late
majority (34%) and the laggards (16%). The first being more likely to jump
in new technologies and the last more likely to wait.











And interestingly that number we
came of smartphones on people’s pockets being much smaller then 27% is probably
very near to the number of 16% that represents the group of innovators + early
adopters. 



Another interesting information
from this report from Vision Mobile is that there was a sharp rise of
smartphones sales from 2010 to 2011. What makes us question: why? In a industry
that grew crazy fast last years, in a market bigger then toothbrushes why sales are slowing? Why are people choosing to wait to jump in the new technology? Could be just because the money?







A possible explanation:







Early adopters are people more
focused on what is new. They are those guys you can see around using Bluetooth headphones
connected to the latest dual core Android phone and possibly caring a Eee Pad
Transformer tablet. Of course this is a stereotype but should help us to
imagine it. They don't really use the technology to work. He mostly uses it for fun
and personal use and is more interested on the possibilities the gadget can
provide, like apps, 3D screen, 1080p recording, than on the liability this
technology can provide. Sometimes are also more interested on the design then
the functionalities and normally price is not the key point for turning its
decision. Bugs are tolerable since the most important thing is having the latest, the sexiest,
technology and newest possibilities.



But early and late majorities are
more interested on the liability a technology can provide then the new
possibilities. They want new possibilities but without loosing those important features they had on the product he already had. They want the phone to make good calls, having a good antenna, a
battery that doesn’t leave them without communication during a hard working day,
a phone more resistant to damage and a price that doesn’t make them feel they need
to care more about the phone then what the phone was made for: helping them to
live. 



They need more speed from the phone. Not
exactly in browsing web but for communicating. Are more intolerant to bugs, but
don’t demand the latest technology and are more focused on the liability of the
basics. Are afraid of taking risks and therefore are less likely to
spend on a cellphone and also to try new products they didn’t heard about. In
other words these guys expect their new phone to have new features of course
but not to lose any of those good qualities his old phone had.&nbsp;





How are today’s smartphones satisfying
the needs of the early and late averages?





Are you satisfied with your
smartphone? Is your brand new smartphone more liable then your good old feature
phone or you still miss that long lasting battery and damage resistance? 



Some opinions I’ve been collecting
through the web show is not:



Philip Breek says something about
his Blackberry



"I remember when I had my first
mobile phone, a bulky Nokia with no color or Internet or any of the fancy
features today’s smart phones have. This phone always worked, the battery
lasted an incredible amount of time and no matter how many times I dropped it I
don’t ever remember having to reset the phone. Now I have a Blackberry. This
means that wherever I go, I know it would be wise to bring my charger and in
case I can’t find a power outlet, the wire that allows me to connect it to my
laptop which also charges it. As many of us have Blackberry’s I’m sure many
people go through these same issues which shouldn’t be necessary."





Ewan from www.mobileindustryreview.com comments about his experience
with google mail on Blackberry





“I just found out that on 22nd of
November, Google is going to discontinue their Gmail App for Blackberry. 



(...)



This is a serious, serious problem
for me. 



(...) 



I want quick, easy access to that
mail. I love the fact that *anywhere* in the world, I can query my Google mail
through the BlackBerry app really quickly. It’s a bit clunky because Google
seems to have stopped evolving the app — but it gets the job done and I’ve
found it highly reliable.



(...)



Of course, the key point is that
they’d rather I do everything in the browser. Or on Android. Both are shite
experiences. There is no Android hardware — NONE — worth looking at from a
messaging/email standpoint. They’re all tinpot shit experiences for me. I need
the BlackBerry UI. I need to be able to get shit done quickly using a decent
physical keyboard — something that is beyond every Android device ever marketed
to date.”



In that two examples we can see how
for some forms of using that most post-iPhone touch screen devices are less usable
then the latest dominant design of fisical QWERTY phones. Which also are less
reliable then the old 2G feature phones with T9 keyboards who had better batteries
and more resistant bodies. The post-iPhone
smartphones are also more expensive then average users desire to pay and that
possibly explains why sales are slowing. 



The post-iPhone shape hasn’t until
yet completely satisfacted the needs of most non early adopters
users. And that doesn’t seems to make sense. A today’s Honda Civic is normally
better then a 10 years ago Honda Civic in most things. But that is not working
that way with phones since today’s smartphones has not yet brought into
obsolesce some 10 years ago shapes. For some kinds of users,
specially those who don’t care much about apps or social media, those who need a
phone for working or simple personal life issues, a post-iPhone smartphone is possibly
one of the worse options available. 





Now. Who is gonna grab this Market?






The company that most successfully
achieve to integrate the post-iPhone features with some of the pre-iPhone
features will be sailing on the blue ocean of an enormous number of users
(billions), who doesn’t like spending too much, but once are pleased are also the
kind of users most afraid of changing to other kind of product meaning lots of loyalty.&nbsp; 





Who are more likely to do this? 





Samsung has not the hardware
solidness and Android is not the best for integrating software responsiveness
with stability and battery efficiency. But Samsung has a well known brand which
is also important and the best pricing for this.



Apple has the software stability and
trustability but has not the pricing, battery efficiency and hardware thickness
necessary. That could be possible if Apple brings a new cheaper model to Market
focusing this weak points, that Apple insists to make even weaker at each
iPhone and iOS generation. &nbsp;Apple has
also a brand with great reputation but until now driven to a niche Market. 



Nokia has all the necessary
attributes for the average Market. The hardware thickness, the battery efficiency
(both WP7 and Symbian) the pricing and the well known brand. But since average
individuals are very reluctant to buy products they don’t know very well the big
challenge is to first grab the mindshare of users that never heard about the WP7
and also don’t have good memories with Windows Mobile. That could be achieved
with the other platform Nokia is investing on, the Meltemi. But until now is
just a rumor.



HTC has the hardware thickness and
the pricing but also lacks the battery efficiency and while Android isn’t the
best for this WP has not the necessary mindshare also. 



RIM might have already a good share
of the average Market but was smashed by the iPhone and failed to do better on
lowering the pricing and improving battery efficiency and hardware thickness. 



In other words none of 
them has all
the necessary attributes yet and a mark of 3 days of normal for 
batteries should be pursued (while most smartphones can't stand more 
then one entire day) Apple software stability with Samsung
pricing. A good QWERTY keyboard should be also an option to think about.
 All of
these without removing the most important features of the post-iPhone
smartphones: the great web browsing, social media, mail and maybe maps. There is 
no need for glossy things. This kind of users are more worried on getting things 
done
then enjoying the new toy. Some features like front facing camera a big
screen and GPS could possibly be left out. Apps aren’t that important 
but can be a good important differential. The
possibility to dual chip is also interesting but not really necessary. 
An ellegant design isn't also the priority for these users. 



Now... lets just watch the race.