Incoerências de nossa Política Econômica
Autor: Roger Jacob | Publicado: 2016-06-11T11:02:00-03:00


Nosso produto interno bruto encerrou 2015 totalizando 5,9 trilhões de Reais, tendo caído 3,8% em relação à 2014, em REAIS constante, e 25% EM DÓLAR. Mesmo assim a arrecadação de todas as esferas de governo cresceu em 2015, mas ainda em descompasso com o crescimento da despesa[1].



Apesar dessa brutal queda da atividade econômica, o Governo segue com uma política de aumento das taxas de juros e de impostos, apesar de toda racionalidade da história econômica indicar o contrário.&nbsp;



Seguimos com uma taxa de juros básica incompatível com o que efetivamente somos e discrepante mesmo dos países de nosso entorno[2]. No relatório de Inflação do Banco Central desse mês de março, lemos textualmente que “(...) Some-se a isso, o fato de que o processo de realinhamento de preços relativos mostrou-se mais demorado e mais intenso que o previsto”&nbsp;(pág 11) logo não haveria hipótese de flexibilização monetária. Mais adiante diz que “(...) A aceleração dos preços livres no trimestre foi impactada por pressões associadas à depreciação do câmbio e a aumento dos tributos,...” pág. 30. O que se pode depreender é que apesar de haver um explícito reconhecimento de que os preços livres não foram reajustados na intensidade dos preços controlados (daí a demora no realinhamento desses preços), e que esse realinhamento não ocorreu por causa de uma grande recessão econômica, que segue nesse ano, e uma consequente demanda muito baixa; mesmo assim não haveria motivo para redução de juros. É uma incoerência lógica!



Mais adiante, no mesmo relatório, vemos que a decomposição da inflação de 2015 seria a seguinte:









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Se tomarmos SOMENTE os preços administrados, o câmbio e o choque de oferta, que teriam uma quase nula sensibilidade à política de juros, eles representam 62% da inflação de 2015. Se, além disso, considerarmos que a inflação de preços livres representa ESSENCIALMENTE a readequação dos preços diante da elevação dos custos devido ao aumento dos preços controlados, teremos ÓBVIO que não há motivo econômico que justifique a elevada taxa de juros nem o seu recente caminho ascendente.



Indo adiante, o estoque de financiamento bancário em nossa economia em 2015 era de 3,18 trilhões, sendo 1,5 trilhões de dívidas das famílias com um custo médio de juros de 39,9% ao ano. Sem considerar o percentual desse endividamento sujeito aos juros superiores dos cartões de créditos e, logo, para efeito ilustrativo, o custo dessa dívida em 2015 foi de 598,5 bilhões de Reais, ou mais de 10% do PIB. O custo de captação médio dos bancos foi de 11%a.a., ou seja, 165 bilhões de Reais, representando um lucro de 433,5 bilhões de Reais, incríveis 263% de lucro bruto, uma taxa inimaginável em qualquer outro país do mundo.



Some-se a isso o custo altíssimo da dívida mobiliária federal, que representa 2,6 trilhões de Reais e custou 501,8 bilhões de Reais em juros, um custo de 19,3%a.a., teremos então que o Governo Federal e as famílias, excluindo as empresas, pagaram mais de 1,1trilhões de Reais em juros, ou quase 19% do nosso PIB. Todos estes dados estão no relatório mencionado acima do Banco Central.



Entendo, com tristeza, que não existe contestação a esse modelo de política econômica que já dura quase 3 décadas, ao contrário, todas as correntes políticas convergem na necessidade de juros altos para estabilização do país, tanto que tem sido usual os economistas de uma corrente servindo no governo de outra.



Apesar de todo o crescimento após a estabilização do Plano Real, fizemos uma aniquilação de nossa base industrial, ancorando nossa economia na alta do preço das commodities, algo que funciona em ciclos e que já não consegue mais oferecer o crescimento de mais de 5% do PIB que foi capaz durante algum tempo.













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Enquanto isso, voltamos à década de 50 em termos de participação da indústria em nosso PIB, o que é frontalmente contra o interesse nacional. Se observarmos o gráfico abaixo, fica claro que o regime iniciado em 86, foi claramente anti-industrial.













O modelo de política econômica atual, de juros e impostos altos, prejudica as famílias e as empresas em favor de um grupo pequeno de vencedores. O estado provedor de benefícios certamente é um estado que exige o esforço da nação para sua manutenção, mas esse esforço seria muito menor sem os excessos decorrentes de um entendimento único no mundo sobre política econômica. Para exemplificar, em países frios o preço do gás sobe fortemente durante o inverno, pela demanda de aquecimento, e não vemos absolutamente uma comoção nacional sobre isso nem o reajuste da política econômica; aqui, o preço do tomate faz disparar o índice oficial de inflação e altera a Selic.





A economia não pode ser explicada exclusivamente por uma corrente, antes, a descrição que cada escola oferece da realidade será adequada para que os formuladores de políticas encontrem soluções para os problemas específicos do seu tempo. Se Keynes previu um receituário que serviu para enfrentar a recessão de 29, não conseguia lidar com a estagflação dos anos 70. Alan Greenspan, considerado o grande maestro da economia, não conseguiu lidar com a crise de 2008 e foi preciso um conceitual completamente novo para conter os danos.



Os grandes debates internacionais são virtualmente ignorados aqui, e chamo especial atenção para o embate entre a escola neo-keynesiana e os defensores da teoria monetária moderna, que resultou num artigo retratação de Krugman (neo-keynesiano). O assunto ficou especialmente interessante e de estudo necessário depois que o FED americano mudou seu ferramental de enfrentamento da crise, numa reviravolta que o mercado criticou muito, mas que funcionou perfeitamente. O ferramental, posteriormente adotado pelo Banco Central Europeu, era muito na linha do defendido pela teoria monetária moderna, pela crítica neo-keynesiana ele geraria inflação, não gerou.



O entendimento correto do que é moeda sem lastro e como funcionam os mercados financeiros é algo de vital importância para o correto entendimento da economia e dos remédios possíveis. O mundo mudou depois que o padrão ouro foi abolido e depois que os EUA abandonaram em 1971 o seu padrão ouro, no entanto a política econômica ainda é discutida como se a moeda tivesse valor intrínseco.






[1]&nbsp;Receita do Tesouro cresceu 1,5% em 2015 representando 15,1% do PIB = R$ 897,5 bilhões. Arrecadação do IR Retido na Fonte subiu 13,3% e do IOF subiu 16,6%, do ICMS subiu 3,4$ e do IPVA subiu 17,8%. Despesas do Tesouro subiram 12,1% em 2015, representando 12,2% do PIB = R$ 722,6 bilhões, onde: Pessoal subiu 7,3% e 49,8% referem-se às outras despesas, especialmente por conta do pagamento de R$ 72,4 bilhões de dívidas com Bancos Públicos e FGTS.



[2]&nbsp;Juros Básicos: EUA – 0,5% a.a., Zona do Euro – 0,05% a.a, Reino Unido – 0,05% a.a., Colômbia – 6,25% a.a (inflação de 7,6% a.a.), Chile – 3,5% a.a. (inflação 5%a.a.), Peru – 4,25% a.a (inflação 4,6% a.a.),&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;México – 3,75% a.a (inflação 2,6%a.a.), Turquia – 7,5% a.a,&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Russia – 11% a.a.; SELIC – 14,25% a.a..