Balanço das empresas e Crescimento econômico
Autor: Financeiro do Grupo B2 | Publicado: 2012-03-31T07:10:00-07:00

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Após as bolsas despencarem no ano passado, o Banco Central do Brasil passou a incorporar em seu cenário base, um choque negativo com a mesma intensidade do choque de 2008.Mas como dizem, a bolsa antecipa dez em cada 5 recessões. Por isso passaram-se seis meses e o mundo continuou expandindo, especialmente as economias emergentes.Apesar de o mundo parecer mais fragilizado que em 2008, o mundo corporativo após essa crise se tornou muito mais conservador, permitindo a elas desenvolver um balanço mais saudável, com elevada posição de caixa para fazer frente às incertezas econômicas.Em 2008, muitas empresas acreditavam que já tinham dominado a ciência da macroeconomia, com isso tiveram a sensação de que tudo possuía um baixo risco, o que permitiu o aumento da divida durante a crise. Após esse grande ‘’tombo’’, as empresas passaram a enxergar os riscos como eles realmente são e estão aproveitando os juros baixos para trocar suas dividas caras por uma mais barata, e em longo prazo, e reforçando suas posições em ativos líquidos.Apesar de isso ser um fator bom para o crescimento, torna a recuperação mais lenta, porém, mais sustentável.&nbsp; E não apostando em ativos com mais risco, acaba limitando o lucro.Esse crescimento vem proporcionando uma aceleração de investimento estrangeiro no Brasil, ajudando ainda mais a recuperação da economia.Mas apesar disso, não é bom se tornar muito otimista, pois o mundo ainda possui o trauma de 2008 e a crise na EU presente, e ninguém gostaria de uma nova bolha de crescimento excessivo.
Rosi Góis