ELPL4 – os tempos difíceis ainda não terminaram...
Autor: Alexandro | Publicado: 2012-07-03T23:37:00-03:00

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&nbsp;&nbsp; - Podemos dizer que
o tempo das “vacas gordas” para as elétricas, com relação à distribuição de dividendos,
está ficando um pouco mais fechado...e o novo ciclo que está iniciando promete
rendimentos mais discretos para o investidor... ...O exemplo da AES Eletropaulo
é algo que está causando “calafrios” ao mercado, justamente porque era, até
então, um ativo que pagava rendimentos acima dos seus pares... ...basta lembrar
de 2011, quando o seus dividendos superaram os 20%...



&nbsp;&nbsp; - Em outros tempos,
investir em ELPL4 era uma garantia de ter um fluxo de caixa constante, ao longo
do ano, aproveitando ainda a valorização do papel... ...além disso, a baixa
volatilidade em suas cotações atraía aqueles investidores de ações mais
conservadores, que geralmente compram e esquecem, sempre focando no longo
prazo.



&nbsp;&nbsp; - O grande problema,
que ocasionou a “quebra” dessa relativa tranquilidade, chama-se “terceira
revisão tarifária”, por parte da Aneel... ...Já a partir de abril deste ano, as
cotações da empresa iniciaram sua trajetória baixista, refletindo as
perspectivas negativas de tais medidas daquela Agência... ...o ativo, que até
então margeava seu topo histórico de cotação na bolsa, passou a sofrer
fortíssima pressão vendedora, onde em apenas 15 pregões chegou a perder -20% de
valor...



&nbsp;&nbsp; - A partir daí, a
revisão de preço de vários analistas, aliado a perspectivas nada animadoras de
queda nos lucros – e, consequentemente, queda no pagamento de dividendos – passaram
a pressionar ainda mais os papéis... ...



&nbsp;&nbsp; - Segue a
continuação da postagem....






&nbsp;&nbsp; - A Aneel aprovou,
no dia de hoje, uma redução média de 9,33% nas tarifas da Eletropaulo dentro do
processo de revisão tarifária; ou seja, um percentual acima dos 8,81% de
diminuição colocados na audiência pública sobre o tema. Esse foi o “gatilho”
para mais um dia de turbulência (na contramão do Ibovespa), em que a mínima
chegou aos -12% de queda... ...ELPL4 terminou cotada aos R$ 22,96, com
praticamente -10%... ...em 2012, o ativo acumula forte baixa de -29,84%...



&nbsp;&nbsp; - Os próximos
resultados trimestrais da empresa poderão dar um indicativo da magnitude dessas
últimas medidas...e qual o real impacto em sua lucratividade... ...com relação
aos dividendos, espera-se que seja pago apenas o percentual mínimo do lucro de
2012 (no caso, 25%)... ...várias casas já consideram reduzir o preço-alvo do
ativo, em consequência dessas últimas notícias, incluindo recomendação de venda...e
isso, logicamente, apenas contribui para a continuidade dos dias difíceis para
os seus investidores...