Eficiência de Mercado
Autor: Finanças em Foco | Publicado: 2012-03-16T16:44:00-03:00

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&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; O assunto que gostaríamos de abordar nesse momento era o
CAPM. Porém, paramos para pensar e concluímos que, para tratar desse assunto,
deveríamos trabalhar antes o conceito do Beta de um ativo, logo, teríamos que
abordar os conceitos de Risco Sistemático e Risco Não-Sistemático. Então
pensamos mais um pouco e chegamos à infeliz conclusão de que devemos tratar
primeiro de eficiência de mercado. Infeliz porque é um assunto bastante batido
nas finanças e, de certa forma, um tanto chato e pouco prático.







&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; A hipótese de eficiência de mercado há muitos anos vem sendo
estudada e existem muitas publicações a seu respeito. Basicamente, um mercado é
eficiente se ele impossibilita ganhos anormais (FAMA, 1970). Logo, não seria
possível “bater” o mercado. Sendo assim, toda informação gerada seria absorvida
imediatamente pelo mercado, caracterizando a eficiência.









&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Conforme FAMA (1970) existe 3 formas de eficiência de
mercado. A primeira, chamada de “forma fraca”, mostra que os preços refletem
toda a informação contida nos preços passados, os testes dessa forma procuram
mensurar como o passado prediz o futuro. A segunda, chamada de “forma
semi-forte”, além dos preços refletirem as informações passadas, eles também,
absorvem toda nova informação pública, os testes dessa forma mostram quão
rápido uma informação pública é refletida nos preços. Já a terceira forma é
chamada de “forma forte”, que, além dos preços refletirem as informações
públicas, eles também refletiriam as informações privadas. Os testes para essa
forma permitem verificar a ocorrência da atuação de insighters.

&nbsp;





&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Em 1991 FAMA modifica a forma de ver as três formas que ele
conceituou. O autor modificou-as através de testes mais abrangentes. Por
exemplo, na forma fraca se passou a levar em conta os dividendos, taxas de
juros e outros eventos. Tornando assim, mais completa a análise. A segunda
forma passou a se chamar de estudo de evento e a terceira forma teve o nome
alterado para teste de informações privadas (FAMA, 1991).





&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Do que FAMA elencou nos dois artigos, ficou como metodologia
para verificação de eficiência de mercado o uso de estudo de evento. Esse
método é muito eficiente para a análise da velocidade de ajuste do mercado às
informações. Basicamente se faz uma regressão que relaciona os retornos de
determinado ativo em relação ao retorno do mercado num determinado período. É
claro que a metodologia de regressão vai muito além do que foi explicado acima.
Porém, não cabe aqui fazer o detalhamento da metodologia, pois seria necessário
um post inteiro para isso. O output de um estudo de evento é basicamente o que
segue abaixo e ilustra retorno anormal na data 0, a qual é a data do evento que
estaria sendo analisado.



&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Os artigos publicados atualmente sobre a
hipótese de eficiência de mercado no Brasil demonstram que em datas próximas a
eventos como a data ex-dividend, datas de publicação de comunicados de fusões e
aquisições são momentos em que o mercado se mostra ineficiente, ou seja,
proporciona retornos anormais aos investidores. Porém, com exceção desses
eventos específicos, a literatura traz o mercado como sendo eficiente. Essa
eficiência se da, basicamente, em função de que existem muitas informações
disponíveis e muitos investidores pesquisando constantemente a respeito. Essas
informações geram expectativas nos investidores e essas expectativas são o que
guiam os mercados.