Devaneios com Big Data
Autor: Pedro Bacelar | Publicado: 2014-05-15T17:28:00-03:00








Um jogo de poker tem tantas variáveis
que em determinado momento vira quase uma arte. Ninguém sabe direito com total
certeza o que acontece ali, existem jogadores que sempre blefam e uma hora
fazem o “blefe do blefe” fazendo todos pagarem pra ver e descobrirem que dessa
vez as cartas eram realmente boas. Existem jogadores que costumam sair logo
assim que podem porque tem certo apreço pelo seu precioso dinheiro, e outros
que jogam displicentemente a ponto de perderem tudo em umas duas jogadas.



Fato é, não dá pra saber como cada
jogador funciona em uma única partida ou até cinco ou quem sabe dez, como ele
pensa e suas atitudes; os melhores são bons em tentar ler os oponentes, com uma
precisão baixíssima, mas ainda assim melhor que o aleatório, acertar de 15 a
20% das maneiras como as pessoas estão se portando no jogo é uma característica
comum a jogadores de elite, daqueles que ganham milhões e milhões.




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Adivinhar melhor: pode render alguns lucros.




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<!--StartFragment-->



<!--EndFragment-->

&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;Eu disse que em poucas partidas não era
muito fácil entender o jogador, mas e se eu coletasse dados de cada jogo desse
jogador em todas as suas nuances? Quando ele desistiu da mão, quando ele
aumentou a aposta, quando ele acompanhou o valor da mesa, quais cartas ele
tinha na mão quando fez isso e até seus batimentos cardíacos, entre outros?
Poucos sabem, mas apesar de parecer aleatório tudo o que fazemos seguem certos
padrões, que não são necessariamente absolutos ( as vezes eles não acontecem),
mas são recorrentes, e se juntarmos um grande apanhado de informações do dia a
dia e tentarmos arrumar as peças, esses padrões emergirão.&nbsp;



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  0
  0
  1
  189
  1078
  Criativos Crônicos
  8
  2
  1265
  14.0
 
 
  
 
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<!--StartFragment-->




Como disse José Saramago, “O caos é
uma ordem por decifrar”. E basicamente é essa a função do Big Data.







Antes de tudo vou ter que tentar ser
o mais trivial possível na definição do que é o Big Data, e definirei como “Uma
cacetada de informações que um banco de dados comum não conseguiria processar
nem nos seus melhores sonhos”. É basicamente isso, não tem mistério. Ele é um
condensado de informações gigantesco processado em altas velocidades que pode
ser usado de maneiras a prever tendências, e observar padrões. Sendo um pouco esdrúxulo,
podemos comparar o Big Data como nossas avós, elas viveram tanto que elas
possuem um acervo de informações vasto, a ponto de prever o que pode acontecer
de vez em quando, antecipando nossas burradas e até saber quando tem alguma
coisa errada com a gente só pela nossa cara.



Sabe o Spock de Star Trek, aquele
cara que só usa a lógica? Ele em alguns filmes solta porcentagens de fatos que
ainda podem acontecer, provavelmente ele usa uma lógica que capta informações
como se fosse um big data, e tira conclusões em cima de coisas que a princípio
não pareciam óbvias, como as palavras usadas, o clima (lugares quentes =
pessoas agitadas), a história do local, hábitos de uma raça (tipo os Klingons
que são bem nervosinhos).&nbsp;




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<!--StartFragment-->"Temos 85,6% de chance
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  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
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  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
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  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
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  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
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  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
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  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
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  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
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  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
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  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Reference"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Reference"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
  
  
 
<![endif]-->

<!--[if gte mso 10]>

 /* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
 {mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
 mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
 mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
 mso-style-noshow:yes;
 mso-style-priority:99;
 mso-style-parent:"";
 mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;
 mso-para-margin-top:0cm;
 mso-para-margin-right:0cm;
 mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt;
 mso-para-margin-left:0cm;
 line-height:115%;
 mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
 font-size:11.0pt;
 font-family:Calibri;
 mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
 mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
 mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
 mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;}

<![endif]-->



<!--StartFragment-->



<!--EndFragment-->

<!--[if gte mso 9]>
 
  0
  0
  1
  150
  858
  Criativos Crônicos
  7
  2
  1006
  14.0
 
 
  
 
<![endif]-->

<!--[if gte mso 9]>
 
  Normal
  0
  
  
  
  
  false
  false
  false
  
  PT-BR
  JA
  X-NONE
  
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
  
  
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
  
<![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]>
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  DefSemiHidden="true" DefQFormat="false" DefPriority="99"
  LatentStyleCount="276">
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Normal"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="59" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Table Grid"/>
  
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
  
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="List Paragraph"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Quote"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
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<!--StartFragment-->



<!--EndFragment-->

&nbsp; &nbsp;Parece coisa de maluco, você leu até aqui e não consegue visualizar minimamente? Então, preparem-se para um exemplo concreto que não é uma&nbsp;analogia com Star Trek. Acho que o mais interessante deles é o do prodígio da computação, Kira Radinsky. Essa cientista da computação de apenas 27 anos de idade criou um algoritmo capaz de prever uma pá de coisas ruins (Triste isso de estar falando de uma coisa e ter que explicar outra coisa dentro dessa coisa, é como se fosse uma boneca russa de explicações. Algoritmo é um conjunto de passos não ambíguos, ordenados e bem definidos que ao receber alguma coisa como informação de entrada ele libera alguma informação de saída. A receita de um Miojo é um algoritmo, recebe um pacote de macarrão como entrada, e te dá como saída, após todos os passos da receita forem executados em ordem, um delicioso apetrecho de culinária universitária. Quanto às coisas ruins elas podem ser: epidemias, catástrofes, conflitos políticos, quem matou Odete Roitman entre outros).







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<!--StartFragment-->Você pode ser inocente e
não saber de nada, mas ela sabe de muita coisa.<!--EndFragment-->







Mas como ela fez isso? Como alguém
consegue prever o futuro assim? Bem antes de tudo prever o futuro é uma
expressão muito forte, pois existe um nível de precisão, no caso, de 70 a 80%.
E a previsão é feita da forma como eu falei no texto, ela se apoia em
conhecimentos prévios, e extrai a ordem e padrões de um caos, nesse caso o
arquivo do New York Times. Em um resumo grosseiro, porém efetivo, o algoritmo é
como uma Super Vozinha, que sabe de tantas causas e efeitos, que ao ver uma
causa nova pode determinar seu efeito baseados em efeitos antigos.



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<!--StartFragment-->





<!--EndFragment-->

Outro exemplo interessante foi o uso
do big data para prever inicios e fins de relacionamento. O algoritmo foi
desenvolvido por Jon Kleinberg e Lars Backstrom e funciona de um jeito curioso,
verificando as conexões entre duas pessoas. Caso eles escolhessem duas pessoas
ao acaso a chance de acertar se elas iriam dar certo é de 2%. Usando essa
tática que se apoia em Big Data, 60%. E Saramago que não tinha muita intimidade
com o Big Data acerta novamente, os fatos estão apresentados, apenas precisam
de ordem.




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  1
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<!--StartFragment-->



Seu(a) namorado(a)
está ai no meio e pode ser que um algoritmo saiba antes de você.
<!--EndFragment-->



<!--EndFragment-->
<!--[if gte mso 9]>
 
  0
  0
  1
  48
  275
  Criativos Crônicos
  2
  1
  322
  14.0
 
 
  
 
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<![endif]-->

<!--[if gte mso 10]>

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 mso-para-margin-left:0cm;
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 mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
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<![endif]-->



<!--StartFragment-->



<!--EndFragment-->

O big data ainda é uma tecnologia que
vai se desenvolver muito, e as aplicações vão entrar em grandes atividades
humanas, como prever valores na bolsa, climatologia, distribuição de empregos,
onde colocar novas filiais de uma empresa entre diversas outras. Será que dá
prever como será o big data de amanhã com o de hoje?





Artigo por Pedro Mota