DONALD TRUMP, O SALVADOR DA PETROBRAS!
Autor: Blog do Saboya | Publicado: 2016-11-06T18:59:00-02:00

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DONALD TRUMP, O SALVADOR DA PETROBRAS!




Roberto Saboya

Novembro, 2016








 
 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
 
 
 

 


Fonte: Business Insider


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O futuro da
Petrobras não depende de Pedro Parente, Henrique Meirelles, ou Michel Temer.
Também não depende de Barak Obama, nem do rei &nbsp;Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz Al-Saud.&nbsp;



Depende de Donald Trump.



Investidores atribuem o desastre da Petrobras à Dilma Rousseff.
Engana-se, todavia, quem julgar que Dilma o fez por incompetência ou pura maldade.
Na realidade, Dilma destruiu a Petrobras por puro patriotismo.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Parece loucura, mas quem disse isso não fui eu. É o que foi dito com
todas as letras em entrevista do Ex-diretor Executivo da Área de Negócios de Gás
e Energia da Petrobras, Ildo Sauer, concedida ao jornal O Estado
de São Paulo, em 2008.


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Fonte: Petrobras


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Sauer, um
gênio sob todos os aspectos, estava indignado porque Dilma perdera a
oportunidade de comprar todas as ações da Petrobras em mãos dos investidores
estrangeiros. Parece incrível, mas foi exatamente isso que O Estado de São
Paulo publicou. Para a supermente de Ildo e a distorcida de Dilma, isso até seria
possível. Para eles bastaria o Estado recomprar todas as ADRs negociadas na
Bolsa de Nova Iorque.&nbsp;



O raciocínio
de Sauer era o seguinte: a Petrobras tinha acabado de descobrir os imensos
campos do Pré-sal, e essa imensa riqueza nacional não poderia ser entregue ao
capital espoliador internacional. Mesmo que a Petrobras ficasse com todo o Pré-sal,
o lucro ainda seria dos estrangeiros que, à época, detinham mais de 50% do
capital da empresa.&nbsp;



O problema é
que esse segredo de polichinelo já era do conhecimento de todo o mundo, exceto dos
pequenos investidores brasileiros. As ADRs da Petrobras estavam cotadas a US$6
quando a sonda BM-S-9 do consórcio BG/Repsol/Petrobras começou a pesquisar o
que, mais tarde, seria conhecido como “a maior descoberta feita no mundo nos
últimos 30 anos”.



Quatro anos
depois, um comunista, que então ocupava a diretoria-geral da Agência Nacional
de Petróleo, divulgou para o mundo o que todos os gringos já estavam cansados de saber. O Brasil tinha descoberto “o terceiro maior campo de petróleo do
mundo”.



Nessa altura,
o ADR da Petrobras estava cotado a US$70 e George Soros, cuja maior posição era
as ações da Petrobras, sorria até não mais poder refestelando-se com o exorbitante
lucro de 1.000%.



Fácil imaginar o ódio de Dilma e a perplexidade de Sauer que,
furibundo, botou a boca no trombone no que resultou na sua expulsão da empresa e
do governo.



Mas Dilma, que não é mulher de se entregar, partiu para a guerra. Para isso
era preciso destruir Soros e toda a cambada de investidores que queriam roubar a
riqueza nacional.





O plano começou com a criação de um Fundo Soberano (2008) cujo objetivo
oculto seria usar nossas reservas para comprar ADRs da Petrobras. Depois, foi
preciso fazer cair o preço dos ADR, e nisso Dilma foi ajudada pela crise de
2008. O preço do ADR caiu para US$21, mas não adiantou: a descoberta do Pré-sal
era tão fantástica que o preço logo subiu para US$51.&nbsp;



A solução foi seguir a estratégia predileta dos maus empresários: fazer
uma subscrição em termos tão ruins que ninguém ousaria acompanhar. Surgiu a cessão
onerosa de 5 bilhões de barris de petróleo localizados no fundo do oceano, a
3.000 metros de profundidade (2010). O ADR caiu para US$15.



Mas tudo acabou dando certo. O Fundo Soberano comprou os ADRs, a União
aumentou sua participação e a Lei da Partilha entregou todo o Pré-sal para a
Petrobras. O Brasil estava salvo e a Petrobras, agora quase toda de propriedade
do povo brasileiro, estaria em condições de ajudar no desenvolvimento do Brasil.&nbsp;


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Dilma não
estava de todo errada. Eficiente na exploração de campos profundos, com um
imenso campo a explorar e petróleo negociado a US$100, a Petrobras poderia
investir US$150 bilhões na prospecção e exploração do Pré-sal e ainda obter
lucro suficiente para pagar suas dívidas e remunerar seus acionistas.&nbsp;




Analistas de
grandes bancos americanos começaram a projetar um preço de mais de US$30, e alguns,
mais otimistas, imaginavam US$50.



E aí Obama
brigou com Putin.



Os detalhes
da guerra econômica de Obama contra Putin se encontram detalhados em diversos
artigos do Blog do Saboya, publicados
entre 2014 e 2015, não cabendo novos comentários a respeito. Basta dizer que, de
uma hora para outra, Obama liberou para exportação a produção americana de 8
mil barris de petróleo por dia. Esse enorme volume, que correspondia a 12% da
produção mundial, era até então mantido exclusivamente para consumo interno e
não podia ser exportado.



Para se ter
uma ideia do efeito dominó desse ato, basta dizer que estudo recente do senado
americano concluiu que 60% do preço do petróleo é formado por operações
especulativas nos mercados futuros. A queda brusca de 10% em menos e 60 dias
desarmou as operações de hedge e resultou em milhares de ordens de vendas.&nbsp; Em cinco meses o petróleo perdeu 60% do seu
valor.&nbsp;



Por sua vez
a queda no preço obrigou os países dependentes da exportação de petróleo, como
a Rússia e a Arábia Saudita, a compensarem a queda da receita com o aumento da produção,
no que resultou em uma nova queda de 57%.



Em sete
meses o petróleo desabou 77%, acabou com o sonho de Dilma e colocou a maior
empresa brasileira em situação pré-falimentar.



O efeito foi
imediato. O ADR da Petrobras desabou &nbsp;de
US$20 para US$3,60. Uma queda de 82%. Com o petróleo a US$100 e um custo de exploração
de US$40, a margem de contribuição por barril seria US$60 (100 – 40), mas, com
o petróleo a US$40, o resultado seria zero.



A Petrobras
estava quebrada.



O problema
da Petrobras não está na roubalheira, nas obras superfaturas ou desnecessárias,
no preço da gasolina ou na gestão catastrófica. Com tudo isso, a Petrobras
seria rentável, mas, com o barril abaixo de USS$50, sua viabilidade deixava de
existir.



A salvação
da Petrobras está na eleição de Donald Trump.



Embora os
mercados estejam apavorados com Donald Trump, a ponto de reverterem a tendência
primaria de alta do Dow Jones Global, no que se refere à crise das empresas
petrolíferas, o cenário com Trump parece ser bem melhor do que o com Hillary.






&nbsp;Fonte:
IncredibleCharts


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A desabada do preço &nbsp;do petróleo foi
o resultado da política externa de Obama e Hillary. Khalid Al-Falih, ministro do petróleo
da Arábia Saudita está cansado de dizer que a OPEP só reduzirá sua produção se
os países não membros também reduzirem as suas. Países não membros são, a
Rússia, aliada da Arábia Saudita, e os Estados Unidos de Barak Obama. 
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&nbsp;Fonte: The Economist


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O petróleo
na Rússia é controlado pelo governo e flutua de acordo com a política de Putin,
mas o americano, não. Centenas de relativamente pequenas empresas americanas de
shale oil, responsáveis por 52% da
produção americana, ou estão endividadas ou já quebraram. Diante das crescentes dívidas e
pressionadas por investidores e bancos, elas foram forçadas a reduzir
investimentos enquanto aumentavam a produção em mais 2,45 mil barris por dia.
Impossível pedir-lhes agora que reduzam sua produção&nbsp;



A situação atual
das grandes empresas também não é nada boa.&nbsp;
O lucro do terceiro trimestre da Shell caiu de US$6,1 bilhões, em 2015,
para US$1,4, em 2016. Em 2015, o lucro agregado de toda a indústria de energia
nos Estados Unidos caiu 75%.
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<![endif]-->


Os bancos
americanos, também sofreram. Em 2015, US$1 bilhão teve de ser descontado dos
juros devidos pela indústria do petróleo. E o pior é que as empresas ainda tiveram
de pagar imposto de renda sobre o valor do benefício recebido.



Tudo que a
indústria do petróleo americana quer é revogar a decisão de Obama e reverter tudo
à situação anterior. Hillary nunca fará isso, mas Trump, um republicano meio
maluco, poderá fazer algo nesse sentido.



Trump já se
declarou amigão de Putin e fez pesadas críticas à política externa de Obama.
Certamente, retirará as sanções contra Putin e encontrará um meio de reverter a
política que resultou na destruição da crescente indústria de shale oil americana.



Atenção Temer,
Parente e acionistas da Petrobras: percam o medo e torçam pela vitória de
Donald Trump.
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
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  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" SemiHidden="false"
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<![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>

 /* Style Definitions */
 table.MsoNormalTable
 {mso-style-name:"Tabela normal";
 mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
 mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
 mso-style-noshow:yes;
 mso-style-priority:99;
 mso-style-parent:"";
 mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;
 mso-para-margin-top:0cm;
 mso-para-margin-right:0cm;
 mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt;
 mso-para-margin-left:0cm;
 line-height:115%;
 mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
 font-size:11.0pt;
 font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
 mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
 mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
 mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
 mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;
 mso-fareast-language:EN-US;}

<![endif]-->




&nbsp;