Dólar bateu R$ 2,22 – grave risco para a economia
Autor: Marcelo Maron | Publicado: 2013-06-20T01:39:00-03:00

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<!--StartFragment-->



A cotação do dólar comercial atingiu, nesta quarta
19 de junho, o preocupante patamar de R$ 2,22, numa desvalorização de 2% em um
único dia. Se o câmbio continuar subindo assim, teremos mais problemas sérios
com a inflação, dado o peso enorme dos produtos importados na economia
brasileira. Até uma taxa de R$ 2,10, ainda havia meios razoavelmente eficazes
de administrar alguns preços. Porém, em níveis maiores, o risco de elevação do
nível geral de preços é muito grande.



Além da questão do valor do dólar em si, a alta
volatilidade observada no mercado cambial, onde não se sabe ainda qual é o
fundo do poço, empurra a economia para um mar de incertezas, que só leva os
investidores a buscar mais proteção, retroalimentando um ciclo vicioso e muito
perigoso de fuga de capitais.



Há de se considerar o papel dos especuladores de
plantão, sempre apostando na desgraça econômica, e testando o tempo todo a
tolerância do Banco Central em permitir elevações no câmbio. Mas é verdade
também que o BC parece leniente com as ofertas da moeda estrangeira: não age
com vigor, e só tem se utilizado de venda através de swap cambial tradicional,
que não tem influência forte e nem duradoura no mercado. O mais correto para a
situação atual seria disponibilizar a divisa em moeda, inundando o mercado,
baixando cotações e demonstrando claramente sua intolerância com taxas
elevadas. Isto serviria, inclusive, para recuperar a credibilidade perdida do
BC, que hoje passa a imagem de total subordinação ao Ministério da Fazenda e de
falta de independência.



Além da elevação dos preços, que pode ocorrer em
curto prazo, o câmbio alto leva a Petrobras ao desespero. A importação de
combustíveis se torna cada dia mais cara, comprometendo o caixa e a saúde
financeira da combalida estatal. Como está impedida de repassar o valor aos
preços para não alimentar ainda mais a inflação, o rombo fica cada vez maior.



Resta-nos torcer para que o mercado se tranquilize,
o BC tome as providências que precisa tomar, e que a taxa cambial se estabilize
dentro de uma banda aceitável, que não coloque em risco a nossa economia.



Infelizmente, o cenário macroeconômico não está
propício à tranquilidade. A posição do banco central americano (FED) de começar
a enxugar a liquidez do mercado, que faz com a compra de títulos, tornará a
moeda americana mais valorizada no mundo todo. Com a recuperação da economia americana
já em curso, se o FED decidir elevar a taxa de juros, hoje em apenas 0,25% ao
ano, a migração dos capitais terá destino certo para as terras do Tio Sam.



Este cenário, aliado aos problemas internos
brasileiros, aos fundamentos macroeconômicos em corrosão, gastos públicos em
alta, inflação alta e crescimento baixo, e às contas externas no vermelho, será
muito complicado driblar a aversão ao risco e controlar o câmbio. A receita
para isso a gente já sabe: subir os juros a patamares onde os investidores
queiram correr o risco Brasil, atraindo dólares pra cá. Juros altos, que ajudam
no combate à inflação, mas que tem o amargo efeito colateral de um crescimento
econômico ainda mais pífio.



A hora de agir é agora, enquanto a baixíssima taxa
de desemprego ainda não foi atingida, que hoje é o pilar mais valioso da
administração de Dilma Rousseff. Que ela tenha a frieza necessária para fazer o
que é preciso. Já.
<!--EndFragment-->