Distorções nas taxas de juros de longo prazo - Em que resultarão?
Autor: Thyago Américo Schio | Publicado: 2013-05-21T22:06:00-03:00

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As taxas de juros de
longo prazo estão em patamares insustentavelmente baixos, induzindo graves
distorções econômicas, em especial, bolhas nos preços de títulos e demais
ativos financeiros. Quando tais taxas de juros subirem - o que certamente
ocorrerá -, tais bolhas irão estourar, sendo que o preço de tais títulos e
demais ativos irão cair significativamente, havendo significativas perdas aos
seus detentores – e consequências no lado real da economia.



Um exemplo claro da
má precificação de títulos ocorre com os T-bonds americanos. Atualmente, tais
títulos com maturação de 10 anos possuem um rendimento nominal inferior a 2%.
Considerando a taxa de inflação em também 2%, isto implica em uma taxa de juros
real negativa, a qual é confirmada pela taxa de juros de -0,6% nas Treasury
Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) de 10 anos – considerando o ajustamento de
juros e principal pela taxa de inflação.



Em termos históricos,
a taxa real de juros dos T-bonds de 10 anos tem sido de 2%. Com efeito, a taxa
atual está 2% abaixo do que tem sido sua média histórica. O que surpreende é
que a taxa de 10 anos taxa tem vigorado em um cenário com déficits fiscais e
endividamento governamental significativamente inferiores ao atual. No caso
americano, com déficits fiscais projetados para 5% do PIB até o fim desta
década e uma razão dívida pública / PIB que duplicou em 5 anos – e continua
crescendo -, era de se esperar taxas de juros reais das T-bonds
significativamente superiores a sua média histórica.



Desse cenário deriva
a questão: como perduram taxas de juros reais tão baixas em um cenário tão
adverso?



A razão para a
sustentação de taxas de juros tão baixas não é um segredo. A política monetária
norte-americana, através de seu “QE3”, tem intencionalmente mantido baixas as
taxas de juros de longo prazo. Sabe-se que o Banco Central Americano (FED),
está comprando T-bonds na ordem de aproximadamente 85 bilhões de dólares por
mês (1,02 trilhões de dólares por ano). Considerando que este valor excede o
déficit governamental, naturalmente, torna-se desnecessário que o mercado
privado assimile tais títulos. É o governo suplantando a necessidade do mercado
privado.



Ressalta-se ainda que os
investidores estão comprando títulos de longo prazo pelas atuais taxas de
juros, pois os rendimentos sobre os investimentos de curto prazo atualmente
estão próximos de zero. Ou seja, os investidores estão recebendo um rendimento
de 2% em troca do risco de manter títulos de longo prazo (com riscos
crescentes).



Na conjuntura atual, há um grande
risco em se manter títulos de longo prazo. Explico-me, através de um exemplo:
Suponha que a taxa de juros dos títulos de dez anos permaneça inalterada nos
próximos cinco anos e, em seguida, suba de 2% para 5%. Durante esses cinco
anos, o investidor obtem um rendimento anual de 2%, resultando em um ganho
acumulado de 10%. Mas, quando a taxa de juros de um título de dez anos sobe
para 5%, o preço do título cai de $ 100 para $ 69. Ou seja, o investidor perde
$31 no preço do título, ou três vezes mais do que o rendimento do título no
período. Há uma relação risco retorno totalmente desfavorável: para cada $1
ganho, há probabilidade em se perder $3.



O Banco Central Americano tem
intencionalmente seguido a estratégia de manter baixas as taxas de juro de
longo prazo na esperança de estimular a economia. Contudo, o estímulo parece
ser desprezível, ao mesmo tempo em que o risco de bolhas financeiras se torna
mais patente – e provável.



A elevação das taxas de juros irá
impor perdas aos detentores de títulos de longo prazo, com potenciais
implicações na estabilidade das instituições financeiras – e novamente do
frágil sistema financeiro.



A baixa taxa de juros dos títulos do
Tesouro de longo prazo também tem elevado a demanda por outros ativos de longo
prazo que possibilitam rendimentos mais elevados, o que inclui ações, terras,
títulos corporativos, ouro e imóveis. Quando as taxas de juros subirem, os
preços desses ativos irão cair. Resta saber qual a sensibilidade de cada um
destes frente às variações nas taxas de juros...








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   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
  
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="List Paragraph"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Quote"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Reference"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Reference"/>
  <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" SemiHidden="false"
   UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
  
  
 
<![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>

 /* Style Definitions */
 table.MsoNormalTable
 {mso-style-name:"Tabela normal";
 mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
 mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
 mso-style-noshow:yes;
 mso-style-priority:99;
 mso-style-qformat:yes;
 mso-style-parent:"";
 mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;
 mso-para-margin-top:0cm;
 mso-para-margin-right:0cm;
 mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt;
 mso-para-margin-left:0cm;
 line-height:115%;
 mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
 font-size:11.0pt;
 font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
 mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
 mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
 mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
 mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;}

<![endif]-->