Question: – We're a day away from Election Day. Here are five things to know about what's expected, what to watch, and what's being said. All eyes are on the Senate, where Republicans need six seats to gain control. USA Today deems 10 races "still close enough to hold the key to which party holds power." But it notes the potential for runoffs in Louisiana and Georgia could mean it could be weeks—or even 2015—before we know who comes out on top. Or it could just be hours. Politico Playbook says sources on both sides say we could be in for an "EARLY night." It points to two "harbingers": North Carolina (polls close at 7:30pm) and New Hampshire (last polls close 30 minutes later). In the former, if Thom Tillis ousts Democrat Kay Hagan, it predicts the GOP will very likely score the six seats it needs. In New Hampshire, if Republican Scott Brown unseats Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, it's another sign the GOP will triumph. How might the Democrats stay on top? If the GOP loses in Kansas and Georgia, Politico points out they'd need to win eight, rather than six, seats, making for a steeper hill to climb. But as the Wall Street Journal puts it, "the GOP heads into Tuesday's balloting with a breeze, but not a strong wind, at its back." This is based on a WSJ/NBC News poll that found that 46% of likely voters want to see a GOP-led Congress, compared to 45% hoping for Democratic control. The House is getting much less attention, with Republicans expected to hang on to control. But USA Today notes one thing to watch: whether the GOP will reach 245 seats. If it does, it would be its biggest majority since Harry Truman was president. Here are five fascinating races to watch there.

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Answer: Republicans hold a narrow edge on the question of which party likely voters want to control Congress, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds, signaling that the GOP heads into Tuesday’s balloting with a breeze, but not a strong wind, at its back. 
  
 The survey found plentiful evidence that Election Day will draw an electorate that thinks the nation is on the wrong track and dislikes the direction in which President Barack Obama has led the country. With eight or more Senate races considered close, even a slight... ||||| It’s the GOP’s to lose. 
  
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 In the waning days of Election 2014, key Senate races that had been razor-close affairs for months have moved toward Republicans — from the open seats of Iowa and Georgia to challenges to incumbents in Arkansas and Alaska. Kentucky appeared to move off the map with Mitch McConnell — poised to replace Harry Reid as majority leader next year — opening a decisive lead. 
  
 Democrats still have a path to hold on. Republicans could lose Kansas and Georgia — which would mean they’d need to net eight seats elsewhere instead of six, a tall task. And the GOP needs to achieve a feat that has eluded the party since 1980: toppling more than two sitting senators in a single election. 
  
 (POLITICO's 2014 race ratings) 
  
 But the national atmosphere, namely President Barack Obama’s unpopularity, may be more than Democrats’ historic investment in turnout can overcome. 
  
 Republicans are certain to pick up open seats in the red states of Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. They need to net three more to get the majority. 
  
 Arkansas looks likely to fall to Republican Rep. Tom Cotton. Louisiana is a likely GOP pickup, but it’s expected to go to a December runoff. 
  
 Democratic incumbents have an edge in New Hampshire and North Carolina, but polls have tightened in recent weeks. 
  
 (From POLITICO Magazine: Can Obama reboot?) 
  
 With that in mind, here are the 10 questions that will decide whether Republicans will close the deal on Tuesday: 
  
 Do enough Republicans come home to save Pat Roberts in Kansas? 
  
 The three-term Republican senator is stuck in the low 40s in polls, largely because he’s underperforming among the Republican base in the deep-red state. A Fox News poll published Friday, which showed independent Greg Orman ahead by 1 point, had Roberts getting only 76 percent of the Republican vote. 
  
 Radiologist Milton Wolf, who held Roberts to under 50 percent in an August primary, reluctantly endorsed Roberts last week. The GOP spent the final weekend seizing on Orman referring to a host of Republicans stumping for Roberts, which happened to include Kansas legend Bob Dole, as a “Washington establishment clown car.” Dole took offense, and it is the subject of targeted robocalls aimed at shoring up Republicans. 
  
 (Also on POLITICO: Greg Orman ‘stuck in the middle’ in Kansas) 
  
 It doesn’t help Roberts’ cause that GOP Gov. Sam Brownback looks more likely than not to lose, in part because he’s alienated moderates. 
  
 Can Thom Tillis increase his share of the white vote? 
  
 Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan has consistently led in the polls because she performed strongly among African-American voters and has done better than expected among whites. But the race has tightened, and Republican Thom Tillis is within striking distance. 
  
 Democrats believe Hagan wins if she gets at least 38 percent of the white vote. CNN and Fox News polls published on Friday showed her at 34 percent. 
  
 Republican models count on black voters making up around 21.5 percent of the electorate — higher than the 2010 midterms but lower than the 2012 presidential campaign, when Obama narrowly lost the state. 
  
 (POLITICO's polling center) 
  
 Democratic groups hammered the speaker of the state House over everything from ethics to education, and it took a toll on his standing with white working-class women in particular, according to polls. But he’s closing strong. 
  
 Will vote-by-mail produce a surprise in Colorado? 
  
 The great uncertainty of this race, which most polls show Republican Rep. Cory Gardner leading Democratic Sen. Mark Udall, is the vote-by-mail factor. For the first time ballots were mailed to each registered voter in the state, and Democrats hope that will produce turnout levels higher than is typically seen in a midterm. 
  
 Republicans maintain a registration advantage in the state, but Democrats have dominated statewide the past decade by winning independents, or “unaffiliated” voters. Udall probably needs to win this group by double digits, operatives say, or he can win by a smaller margin if they compose a third or more of the electorate — something akin to a presidential election. 
  
 A Quinnipiac poll that put Gardner up 46 percent to 39 percent last week showed the two basically tied among independents. 
  
 (Also on POLITICO: Barack Obama: ‘Vote. Vote. Vote. Vote. Vote.’) 
  
 NBC/Marist found a tied race late last month, but Udall’s previous 15-point lead among independents had shrunk to 3 points. The Democrat’s campaign released an internal poll around the same time that showed Udall up 1 point, but ahead by 10 points among independents. 
  
 Is the Des Moines Register poll the real deal? 
  
 A Des Moines Register poll this weekend showed Republican Joni Ernst up 7 points, and the feeling on the ground is that the open race has slipped away from Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley. 
  
 The Register’s respected pollster, whose surveys have a solid history of mirroring the final outcome, said the race is basically over because so few people said they might still change their minds. Democrats pushed back by pointing to a series of polls last week showing a tighter race and touting success in early voting. 
  
 (Also on POLITICO: Tom Harkin: Joni Ernst as pretty as Taylor Swift? So what?) 
  
 Voters see Ernst as more extreme than Braley and more beholden to outside interests (the Koch brothers), but they don‘t appear to care. Instead, they are more turned off by Braley’s characterization of GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley as a “farmer from Iowa who never went to law school.” 
  
 How much support does the Libertarian siphon from Republicans in Alaska? 
  
 Democrats have hammered Republican Dan Sullivan as a carpetbagger, on his record as attorney general and over a host of parochial issues (like his support for a controversial mine). But there’s a class of voters who may not like Sullivan but won’t vote to reelect Democratic Sen. Mark Begich because of his support for Obama priorities like Obamacare. 
  
 (VIDEO: Election Day 2014) 
  
 With Sullivan leading in most polls, Begich is making a last-minute play to boost Libertarian Party candidate Mark Fish. Begich pushed to include Fish in the debates and has launched radio ads to note that Fish opposes the PATRIOT Act and electronic surveillance by the National Security Agency. 
  
 A poll last week showed Fish getting 4.5 percent of the vote, which could be the difference in a close race. Democrats say it might take days to count ballots in rural areas. 
  
 Follow @politico ||||| A sign points to the early voting station at a government building in Miami on Oct. 28, 2014. (Photo: Joe Raedle, Getty Images) 
  
 WASHINGTON — Steady your nerves, because there is still uncertainty about the outcome of the 2014 midterm elections. 
  
 As candidates make their final arguments, 10 races for the Senate are still close enough to hold the key to which party holds power. The possibility of runoffs in Louisiana and Georgia mean it could take weeks before knowing whether the GOP nets the six seats necessary to win the majority. 
  
 A dozen races for governor could go either way. Although Republicans are likely to keep control of the House of Representatives, about two dozen seats in play will determine whether the GOP will reach 245 seats — their biggest majority since Harry Truman was president. 
  
 Brendan Nyhan, an assistant professor of government at Dartmouth College, warns election watchers to tune out the "noise" Tuesday from exit polls, TV pundits and Internet bloggers. "You just have to wait for the results to come in," he said. 
  
 The first polls close at 7 p.m. in a handful of states. Six hours later, the last precinct in the remote Aleutian Islands of Alaska will close. 
  
 Here are some states that could provide early clues. All times Eastern. 
  
 7:30 p.m. — A Democratic sign 
  
 The Senate race in North Carolina between Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan and Republican Thom Tillis could give an early sign of whether President Obama and his party have a good or bad night. 
  
 Like many Republicans running for the Senate, Tillis has tried to make this race about Hagan's ties to Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. 
  
 But Hagan, who is seeking a second term, has kept the race close by stressing her independence and focusing on Tillis' liabilities as speaker of the state's unpopular General Assembly. Libertarian Sean Haugh could draw voters away from both major-party candidates. 
  
 "If Tillis wins in North Carolina, that might be a harbinger of a good night for Republicans," said Andrew Taylor, a political science professor at North Carolina State University. "If Hagan wins, the Democrats might hold out some hope that they can hold onto the Senate." 
  
 The GOP is heavily favored to pick up three Democratic-held Senate seats and West Virginia will be the first to close. (The others, South Dakota and Montana, close later in the evening.) 
  
 Sen. Kay Hagan, D-N.C., and North Carolina Republican Senate candidate Thom Tillis, right, shake hands as Libertarian candidate Sean Haugh looks on prior to a live televised debate at WECT studios in Wilmington, N.C. on Oct. 9, 2014. (Photo: Gerry Broome, AP) 
  
 8 p.m. — A GOP wave? 
  
 Going into the 2006 and 2010 midterms, the political environment was so strong for the party not in power that a wave swept House incumbents out of the majority. If a wave is heading for the Senate this year, it would make itself known in New Hampshire. 
  
 The race between Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, a popular former governor, and former Massachusetts senator Scott Brown has been tightening for several weeks. Brown, a GOP moderate, has overcome initial objections that he is a carpetbagger. Each candidate has tried to brand the other as a party loyalist. 
  
 "If Shaheen goes down here that means Democrats across the country are in really, really bad shape," said Andy Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. "That means ... Democrats are getting beat all over the place." 
  
 Florida, a perennial swing state in presidential elections, has the potential for all-night nail biting in the governor's race. 
  
 Republican Gov. Rick Scott and Democrat Charlie Crist, who is seeking his old job, have been running neck-and-neck. They have sparred bitterly over the economy and education, and both are deeply unpopular with voters. A Quinnipiac Poll released Thursday showed Crist holding an 18-point lead among independent voters, who are critical to his success. 
  
 Other states closing at this hour include Massachusetts and Maine, which also have tossup races for governor. 
  
 Massachusetts typically bleeds Democratic blue, but has a tradition of supporting moderate Republicans for governor. Republican businessman Charlie Baker, who lost the governor's race to incumbent Deval Patrick four years ago, has opened a lead on Democrat Martha Coakley, the attorney general. If Coakley loses, it would tarnish her reputation because she lost a winnable special election for the U.S. Senate in 2010. 
  
 Massachusetts gubernatorial candidates Martha Coakley, left, and Charlie Baker are seated next to one another before a televised debate at WCVB television studios on Oct. 28, 2014, in Needham, Mass. (Photo: Steven Senne, AP) 
  
 9 p.m. — Double whammies 
  
 Colorado, a swing state, features competitive races for Senate and governor. Both major parties could consider the outcome a success. 
  
 In the Senate contest, Democratic Sen. Mark Udall faces a tough fight from GOP Rep. Cory Gardner. Recent statewide polling shows Gardner opening a lead, but Democrats are counting on strong turnout to help the incumbent. This is also the Senate race where Latinos could have their biggest impact, since they make up 14.2%​ of the electorate. 
  
 Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper is essentially tied with Republican Bob Beauprez, a former congressman, in the state's other marquee race. 
  
 Kansas, a typically conservative state, features competitive races for Senate and governor. GOP Sen. Pat Roberts is in the fight of his career against independent Greg Orman, who has not said whether he'll caucus with Republicans or Democrats if he wins. An Orman victory would complicate the battle for Senate control. 
  
 In this Sept. 6, 2014, file photo, Republican Sen. Pat Roberts, left, and independent candidate Greg Orman walk to the stage before a Senate debate in Hutchinson, Kan. (Photo: Charlie Riedel, AP) 
  
 10 p.m. and beyond — Clearer pictures 
  
 By now, a political trend might be coming into focus. 
  
 Polls close at 10 p.m. in Iowa and Montana, where GOP Rep. Steve Daines is the favorite. Iowa's Senate race between Republican Joni Ernst and Democrat Bruce Braley is crucial. Both parties are expecting a Dec. 6 runoff in Louisiana between Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu and Bill Cassidy, the GOP favorite. 
  
 The last polling place closes in Alaska at 1 a.m. But the contest between Democratic Sen. Mark Begich and Republican Dan Sullivan may not be decided for a while because it takes time for the votes to come in from the rural parts of the state. 
  
 Follow @ccamia on Twitter. 
  
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