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 SOU 1999:46 
  
 1 
  
 2 Bakgrund och syfte 
 Det är allmänt känt att socialbidragen har ökat kraftigt under  
 1990-talet. 
  I figur 1.1 redovisas denna utveckling. 
  
 Figur 1.1  
 Utbetalda socialbidrag under åren  
 1990–1997 
  
 Miljarder kronor i 1997 års penningvärde 
  
 14 
  
 12 
  
 10 
  
 8 
  
 6 
  
 4 
  
 2 
  
 0 
  
 1990 
  
 1991 
  
 1992 
  
 1993 
  
 1994 
  
 1995 
  
 1996 
  
 1997 
  
 Av figuren framgår det att kostnaderna för socialbidrag i reala termer har ökat från knappt 6 miljarder kronor 1990, till drygt 12 miljarder kronor 1997. Kostnaderna har alltså mer än fördubblats under de aktu- ella åren. 
 De kraftiga försämringarna av den offentliga ekonomin och arbets- marknaden har under  
 1990-talet 
  förändrat förutsättningarna för hus- hållen. Som ett led i den statliga budgetsaneringen sänktes nivåerna i de statliga transfereringarna och beskattningen av hushållen ökade. Höga krav på arbetskraften i kombination med för få arbetstillfällen har mar- ginaliserat vissa grupper av befolkningen eller t.o.m. ställt dem utanför arbetslivet. Den höga flyktinginvandringen har dessutom ökat utbudet av 
  
 2  
 Bakgrund och syfte 
  
 SOU 1999:46 
  
 s.k. svårplacerad arbetskraft. Sammantaget ledde dessa förändringar dessutom till att de disponibla inkomsterna minskade och att kostnaderna för socialbidrag ökade. 
 Denna utveckling berörs i direktiven till utredningen. Där sägs exempelvis att utredningen ska analysera sambanden mellan social- bidragen och övriga delar av trygghetssystemet utifrån de olika över- gripande förändringar som skett i samhället under  
 1990-talet. 
  Där sägs också att utredningen ska lämna förslag till hur verksamheten inom in- divid- och familjeomsorgen kan förändras så att den bättre överens- stämmer den avsedda funktionen att stödja enskilda med ett individuellt bistånd som är föranlett av tillfälliga sociala eller ekonomiska problem. 
 Det ena syftet med denna studie har därför varit att klargöra hur in- komstförhållandena för olika typer av hushåll har utvecklats under 1990- talet. Särskilt har det fästs vikt vid hur de samlade förändringarna påverkat nivån på de utbetalda socialbidragen. 
 Ett annat syfte har varit att identifiera och på olika sätt beskriva grupper i befolkningen som har ett långvarigt beroende av socialbidrag. Detta bör kunna utgöra ett bra underlag för formuleringen av förslag som minskar det långvariga beoendet av socialbidrag. 
 Ett tredje syfte har varit att belysa sambanden mellan statens kost- nader för trygghetssystemet och kommunernas kostnader för social- bidragen. Närmast har syftet varit att belysa vilka merkostnader för den samlade offentliga sektorn olika statliga alternativ till socialbidrag skulle kunna leda till. 
  
 SOU 1999:46 
  
 1 
  
 3 Något om hur studien har gjorts 
  
 3.1 
  
 Datauppgifter 
  
 De datauppgifter vi har tillgängliga för våra statistiska bearbetningar sträcker sig till år 1996. De allra senaste årens utveckling med höjda transfereringar till hushållen och en ljusning på arbetsmarknad kan där- för endast behandlas genom simuleringar. Simuleringarna innebär att vi vid beräkningarna använder såväl faktiska som antagna inkomster för de hushåll som görs föremål för beräkningarna. 
 De statistiska beräkningarna har gjorts med hjälp av SCBs årliga undersökning Hushållens Inkomster (HINK) och med en Thomas Individ Databas (LINDA), som är registerbaserad och också den skapad och underhållen vid SCB. 
 Den första databasen (HINK) har använts för att avläsa inkomstför- hållandena för olika typer av hushåll de aktuella åren. Databasen är av tvärsnittskaraktär, vilket innebär att förhållandena under ett givet år redovisas. Det är med andra ord inte möjligt att i något avseende följa enskilda hushålls utveckling över tiden. 
 Det urval som används för studien är något begränsat i förhållande till det ursprungliga urvalet. Syftet är att få en bättre bild av inkomst- förhållandena ur ett helårsperspektiv. Det innebär exempelvis att man försökt utesluta individer och hushåll som vistats i Sverige endast delar av det aktuella året. 
 Den andra databasen (LINDA) däremot gör det möjligt att observera förhållanden som sträcker sig över flera år. Exempelvis har vi använt databasen för att följa de hushåll som har ett beroende av socialbidrag som sträcker sig över flera år. 
 Vi har använt datauppgifter från åren före och efter den stora skatte- reform som genomfördes åren 1991 och 1992. Detta medför att jämför- barheten över åren inte är fullständig. 
  
 2  
 Något om de metoder som använts 
  
 SOU 1999:46 
  
 3.2 
  
 Metoder 
  
 En metod är ren statistisk beskrivning. Till väsentlig del består denna rapport av redovisningar av samband mellan olika inkomstslag och so- cialbidrag för olika typer av hushåll. De data som nämnts ovan är orga- niserade så att det är möjligt att föra olika inkomstslag till specifika hushåll. Detta innebär att det är möjligt att på hushållsnivå fastställa hur olika inkomster förhåller sig till varandra. Det är exempelvis möjligt att observera hur omfattningen av socialbidrag förhåller sig till arbetsin- komster eller inkomster från statliga transfereringar, uppgifter som är av särskilt intresse för Socialtjänstutredningen. 
 En annan metod är Typhushåll. De gör det möjligt att särskilt studera effekterna av regeländringar. 
 En tredje metod är simuleringar på mikronivå. Vi har använt simule- ringar för att få en uppfattning om sambanden mellan olika statliga för- sörjningsalternativ och socialbidragen. 
  
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