# Hot Waitress Economic Index: What It Means and How It Works

## What Is the Hot Waitress Economic Index?

The hot waitress economic index is an offensive and dubious economic indicator that counts the number of attractive people working as servers. 

According to what we will refer to as the attractive server index, the higher the number of good-looking servers, the weaker the state of the economy. The questionable assumption is that attractive individuals don't have trouble finding higher-paying jobs during good times in the economy.

According to the indicator, high-paying jobs are more difficult to get during tough economic times. A higher number of attractive people will therefore be forced to work in service-industry jobs. The theory would seem to disregard employee skills, qualifications, or experience.

The attractive server index was first articulated by Hugo Lindgren in an article for _New York Magazine_. Lindgren was an American magazine and newspaper writer and editor at the time. He has gone into Hollywood production, not economics or academia.

### Key Takeaways

*   The hot waitress economic index is an offensive and dubious economic indicator of a financial recession.
*   It states that the higher the number of good-looking servers, the weaker the state of the economy.
*   The index was first coined by journalist Hugo Lindgren in _New York Magazine_.
*   The attractive server index hasn't been vetted by economists.

## How the Hot Waitress Economic Index Works

Lindgren wrote about finding what he considered to be more attractive people serving tables at a Lower East Side establishment in New York City in [his 2009 piece](http://nymag.com/news/intelligencer/58195/) at the onset of the [Great Recession](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/great-recession.asp). These servers were replacements for people who had been laid off. The manager in charge reportedly surmised that good-looking waitresses would drive more sales for the establishment.

The attractive server index hasn't been vetted by economists and it's not known if this strategy by the management of one establishment was successful. A traditional economic theory contends that employment tends to be a [lagging indicator](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/laggingindicator.asp) for economic recovery, but Lindgren contended there was "good reason to believe" that his index was a leading indicator.

"As a commodity that’s fairly cheap, historically effective as a marketing tool, and available on a freelance basis, hotness will likely be back in demand long before your average Michigan autoworker is," he wrote.

There is minimal research in support of this indicator. Scientists have found that attractive people tend to be considered more capable and they're more confident and this combines to get them better jobs and higher wages. This is often called "lookism," or beauty bias. It could suggest that there's a lack of better jobs out there when attractive people are waiting tables, a job that some consider requires [lesser skill](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/unskilled-labor.asp) and/or result in lower pay.

## Indicators and Factors of the Index

The pay scale for servers varies considerably based on a restaurant's location, clientele, food quality, and the competency of the servers themselves. To assume that the service industry is low-skill is to discount the highly competitive nature of the market. Yelp reviews calling out uneducated, unskilled, or poor servers can quickly get a server fired.

> **Important**
>
> Some economic indicators are well-respected measures of the economy's health, such as when economists talk about GDP or initial jobless claims. But almost anything can be considered an economic indicator and thus any theory should be prodded for its validity before it can be trusted.

"There can be a pop culture mythos around some economic indicators," says [Erika Rasure](https://www.investopedia.com/erika-rasure-4800388), Ph.D., assistant professor of business and financial services at Maryville University and a member of the [Investopedia Financial Review Board](https://www.investopedia.com/investopedia-financial-review-board-5076269). "These can be very superstitious. People try to make correlations between observable phenomena but it doesn't make it true. In this case, it is misogynistic and sexist."

Rasure recommends doing your homework to judge the accuracy of an indicator. "How well has an indicator been studied? Don't do anything until you have the facts and don't believe everything you see and hear on TV or the Internet."

## Hot Waitress Index vs. Other Strange Indicators 

The accuracy and reliability of the attractive server index is questionable but it's far from alone in the finance realm of weird indicators that people have used. If you can dream it up, someone may have beat you to that theory. "Some people think the full moon has an influence on the economy. I think of these indicators as pop culture finance reads," says Rasure.

Various insulting and suspect theories have surfaced over the years to tout the predictive power of marine advertisements, sales of [men's underwear](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spurious_correlation.asp), and even lipstick sales. The idea behind these ideas is similar.

You can expect to see tougher marine recruitment ads on TV in a difficult economy because they meet recruitment goals quickly in down economies. They don't have to worry about scaring people away. Men's underwear sales will dip (that pair might last a little longer) and lipstick sales will go up because it's a relatively inexpensive personal luxury that no one needs in a masked pandemic.

## What Is a Lagging Indicator?

A lagging indicator is one that's based on events and trends of the past. It's something of a warning system that a similar event not only could happen again but is likely to occur unless circumstances change. Leading indicators anticipate and help to prepare safeguards against negative events in the future.

## What Is the Average Pay of Food Service Workers?

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in September 2023 that the 2022 median pay for food service and related workers was $13.52 per hour. Secretaries and administrative assistants earned $21.19 per hour that same year. Both types of workers may deal with the public in the course of their jobs, but food service workers tend to do so to a much greater extent.

"Median" means that half of all workers were paid more than this amount and half earned less.

## What Is the Average Pay of All Workers in the United States?

The average hourly rate of pay for all workers excluding farm payrolls was $34.55 as of January 2024. That was a 4.5% increase over the previous year.

## The Bottom Line

The hot waitress economic index counts the number of attractive people who work as servers. The theory behind the index is that more attractive individuals work as servers at times when the economy is weak. They could presumably work in a better-paying position in a stronger economy, thanks in part to their looks.

The index doesn't consider qualifications such as skills, experience, or education. It shouldn't be used to measure the likelihood that you can land a job in a different field based on factors other than your appearance.

> **Article Sources**
>
> 1.  Princeton University Press. "[Beauty Pays: Why Attractive People are More Successful](https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691158174/beauty-pays)."
>     
> 2.  Amazon. "[Consumer Management in the Internet Age: How Customers Became Managers in the Modern Workplace](https://www.amazon.com/Consumer-Management-Internet-Age-Customers/dp/149859221X)."
>     
> 3.  U.S. Department of Labor Occupational Safety and Health Administration. "[Using Leading Indicators to Improve Safety and Health Outcomes](https://www.osha.gov/leading-indicators)."
>     
> 4.  U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. "[Secretaries and Administrative Assistants](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/office-and-administrative-support/secretaries-and-administrative-assistants.htm)."
>     
> 5.  U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. "[Food and Beverage Serving and Related Workers](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/food-preparation-and-serving/food-and-beverage-serving-and-related-workers.htm)."
>     
> 6.  U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. "[The Employment Situation—January 2024](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf)."