# 1279727 (2).pdf

Posted on 24 Mar 2025 — CC-BY 4.0 — https://doi.org/10.22541/au.174283920.05725972/v1 — This is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed. Data may be preliminary.
MUHAMMAD SUKRI RAMLI1
1Aﬃliation not available
March 24, 2025
Abstract
Malaysia has become a major refugee-hosting country in ASEAN, facing considerable strain as it shoulders a disproportionate
burden of refugee protection despite the absence of a formal legal framework for refugee status.
This paper examines the
mounting challenges Malaysia faces at the intersection of increasing climate-induced displacement and the vulnerabilities of
these populations. Malaysia is also struggling with severe climate change impacts, such as ﬂooding, while managing growing
refugee populations. Recurrent climate threats, notably severe monsoon ﬂooding which disproportionately impacts refugees and
asylum seekers residing in ﬂood-prone, aﬀordable areas, exacerbate these vulnerabilities. This research investigates the interplay
between humanitarian protection and climate vulnerability, highlighting the precarious livelihoods and housing conditions of
displaced individuals in Malaysia, and how the absence of legal recognition compounds their susceptibility to climate extremes,
creating a dual crisis. Analyzing the dynamic relationship between climate threats, refugee vulnerability, and the resultant strain
on Malaysia, this study underscores the urgent need for comprehensive climate action and a collective response within ASEAN to
mitigate these challenges. Furthermore, it includes a comparative analysis of Malaysia’s challenges with other ASEAN countries.
By examining the causal links between these factors and analyzing Malaysia’s current situation, this research contributes to a
deeper understanding of the necessity for robust regional and national frameworks. These frameworks must not only address the
immediate needs of displaced populations but also prioritize longterm climate resilience and sustainable development strategies
across the ASEAN region.
1

1 
STRAINED BY CLIMATE AND REFUGEE MIGRATION: 
Malaysia’s Challenges and the Urgent Need for ASEAN’s Collective Response 
MUHAMMAD SUKRI BIN RAMLI 
Asia School of Business 
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia 
Email: m.binramli@sloan.mit.edu 
Abstract 
Malaysia has become a major refugee-hosting country in ASEAN, facing considerable strain as it shoulders a 
disproportionate burden of refugee protection despite the absence of a formal legal framework for refugee status. This paper 
examines the mounting challenges Malaysia faces at the intersection of increasing climate-induced displacement and the 
vulnerabilities of these populations. Malaysia is also struggling with severe climate change impacts, such as flooding, while 
managing growing refugee populations. Recurrent climate threats, notably severe monsoon flooding which disproportionately 
impacts refugees and asylum seekers residing in flood-prone, affordable areas, exacerbate these vulnerabilities. This research 
investigates the interplay between humanitarian protection and climate vulnerability, highlighting the precarious livelihoods 
and housing conditions of displaced individuals in Malaysia, and how the absence of legal recognition compounds their 
susceptibility to climate extremes, creating a dual crisis. Analyzing the dynamic relationship between climate threats, refugee 
vulnerability, and the resultant strain on Malaysia, this study underscores the urgent need for comprehensive climate action 
and a collective response within ASEAN to mitigate these challenges. Furthermore, it includes a comparative analysis of 
Malaysia’s challenges with other ASEAN countries. By examining the causal links between these factors and analyzing 
Malaysia's current situation, this research contributes to a deeper understanding of the necessity for robust regional and national 
frameworks. These frameworks must not only address the immediate needs of displaced populations but also prioritize long-
term climate resilience and sustainable development strategies across the ASEAN region. 
1. 
Introduction 
Climate change is unequivocally altering global systems, leading to more frequent and intense extreme weather events, 
rising sea levels, and significant environmental degradation (IPCC, 2022). These changes pose profound challenges to human 
societies and ecosystems worldwide, impacting everything from agricultural productivity and water availability to human 
health and economic stability (World Bank, 2024). The impacts of climate change are not evenly distributed, with vulnerable 
populations and regions often bearing a disproportionate burden (Adger, 2006). Alongside climate change, the world is 
witnessing unprecedented levels of forced displacement, driven by conflict, persecution, violence, and increasingly, 
environmental factors (UNHCR, 2023). These movements of people create complex humanitarian, political, and social 
challenges for both displaced persons and host communities, straining resources and requiring complex policy responses 
(Martin, 2010). The ASEAN region is particularly vulnerable to the combined impacts of climate change and displacement. 
The region is characterized by extensive coastlines, reliance on agriculture, and a high prevalence of climate-sensitive sectors, 
making it susceptible to climate-related disasters (Christensen & Duncan, 2020). Many countries in the region also face 
challenges related to poverty, inequality, and governance, which can exacerbate the impacts of climate change and 
displacement, creating a complex web of interconnected vulnerabilities (Tacoli, 2009). 
Figure 1: Causal Loop Diagram Illustrating the Interplay of Climate Threats, Refugee Vulnerabilities, and Host 
Country Strain 

Figure 2: Refugee Population in ASEAN Countries (2024). Adapted from UNHCR Refugee Data Finder. 
https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics 
Malaysia has become a significant destination and host country for refugees and asylum seekers in the ASEAN region 
(UChew, 2018). Despite not being a signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention, Malaysia hosts a substantial number of 
displaced persons, creating unique challenges for the country's social and economic systems (Human Rights Commission of 
Malaysia [SUHAKAM], 2023). Concurrently, Malaysia is experiencing the adverse impacts of climate change, including 
increased frequency and intensity of floods (Department of Irrigation and Drainage Malaysia, 2023; Tang & Abidin, 2018), 
rising temperatures (Malaysian Meteorological Department [METMalaysia], 2023; Liew, Yusof, & Tham, 2013), sea-level 
rise (McGranahan, Balk, & Anderson, 2007), and other environmental changes. These dual pressures—managing a large 
refugee population and facing significant climate change impacts—create a compounding crisis for Malaysia. The 
vulnerabilities of refugee populations, who often face precarious living conditions and limited access to resources, are 
exacerbated by climate-related disasters, placing additional strain on the country's resources and capacity (IDMC, 2023). 
To provide context, it is important to briefly compare Malaysia’s challenges with those of other ASEAN nations. 
Thailand also hosts many refugees but has a different approach to refugee management, including some forms of legal 
recognition and integration policies (UNHCR, 2023a). Indonesia is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts, such as sea-
level rise and extreme weather events (IPCC, 2022), but its refugee situation is characterized by different dynamics and policy 
responses, often involving temporary protection measures (Kälin & Schrepfer, 2012). The Philippines has developed strong 
disaster response mechanisms due to its experience with typhoons and other natural hazards (Tang & Abidin, 2018) and has 
also shown a willingness to engage in international discussions on refugee protection (Edwards, 2010). However, the country 
also faces significant challenges with internal displacement caused by climate-related disasters (IDMC, 2023), highlighting 
the complex interplay of displacement drivers in the region. 
2. 
Research Objectives 
The primary objective of this research was to analyze how climate change impacts exacerbated Malaysia's challenges 
in supporting and protecting refugees. This primary objective was crucial for understanding the core issue at the intersection 
of climate change and refugee studies. It acknowledged that climate change acted as a stressor that compounded existing 
challenges faced by refugee-hosting nations, increasing the complexity and intensity of existing vulnerabilities (Warner, 2010). 
It was supported by the broader literature on climate-induced migration and the vulnerability of displaced populations 
(Foresight, 2011), which highlighted the increasing pressure placed on host countries due to environmental factors, often 
leading to humanitarian crises and requiring more comprehensive responses (Kälin, 2013). To achieve this, several specific 
objectives were pursued. 
First, the research analyzed specific climate change threats, with a focused examination of flooding, and their impact 
on refugees. This objective aimed to identify the direct impacts of climate change on refugees, focusing on specific threats 
relevant to Malaysia. Flooding, for example, was a major concern in Malaysia (Tang & Abidin, 2018), and its effects on 
vulnerable communities, including refugees, were analyzed, considering the increased frequency and intensity of extreme 
rainfall events (Christensen et al., 2013). The study investigated how increased flooding affected refugee settlements, access 

3 
to resources, and overall safety. Research on environmental hazards and their disproportionate impact on marginalized groups 
(Hunter, 2005; Wisner, Blaikie, Cannon, & Davis, 2004) further supported the need to examine these specific climate threats, 
considering the intersectionality of vulnerabilities (Adger, 2006). 
Second, the research assessed vulnerabilities of refugees in Malaysia (housing, livelihoods, services, and social 
integration), particularly in the context of flooding events. This objective addressed the pre-existing vulnerabilities of refugee 
populations that were exacerbated by climate change. Housing conditions for refugees were often precarious, with many living 
in informal settlements or areas prone to disasters (UNHCR, Various years; Human Rights Commission of Malaysia 
[SUHAKAM], Various years), which were further compromised by flood events. Livelihoods were insecure due to limited 
legal rights to work and reliance on informal employment, making refugees particularly susceptible to economic shocks 
following floods (Dun, 2011). Enhancing access to essential services such as healthcare, education, and social support can 
improve resilience and adaptation following flooding incidents (Hyndman, 2004). Moreover, challenges related to social 
integration and discrimination further marginalized refugee communities and increased their vulnerability to flood impacts 
(Castles, 2003). Research on vulnerability and resilience (Ribot, 2014) provided a framework for understanding these 
multifaceted challenges, emphasizing the need for a holistic approach that considered social, economic, and environmental 
factors (Bebbington, 1999) in the context of flood disasters. 
Third, the research evaluated the strain on Malaysia’s resources and systems (healthcare, infrastructure, public 
finances, and social cohesion) resulting from increased flooding and refugee presence. This objective examined the 
consequences of the combined pressures of climate change-induced flooding and refugee influx on Malaysia's resources and 
systems. Flood impacts damaged infrastructure, disrupted essential services, and strained public finances (The World Bank, 
2010; Abdullah & Mohd, 2016), requiring significant investments in disaster relief (Tang & Abidin, 2018). The presence of a 
large refugee population further strained healthcare systems, housing availability, and other social services following flood 
events, potentially leading to resource scarcity and increased competition for limited resources (Tacoli, 2011). Furthermore, 
the combined pressures strained social cohesion and created tensions within communities, requiring careful attention to social 
equity and inclusion (Giddens, 2009) after major flooding. Studies on the economic and social impacts of disasters and 
migration (Dun, 2011; Tacoli, 2011) highlighted the importance of assessing these strains, considering the complex interplay 
of factors affecting resource allocation and social stability (Young et al., 2006) in the context of flood related disaster. 
Fourth, the research critically compared Malaysia's situation with selected ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Thailand, 
Philippines) regarding flood response and refugee support. This objective provided a comparative perspective by examining 
how other ASEAN countries addressed similar challenges in the context of flooding. Comparing Malaysia's policies and 
experiences with those of Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines offered valuable insights into best practices and areas for 
improvement particularly in the context of flooding events. These countries had varying approaches to refugee protection, 
climate change adaptation, and disaster risk reduction (UNHCR, 2023), reflecting different legal frameworks, institutional 
capacities, and socio-political contexts (Achiume, 2019). Analyzing these differences provided a rich context for comparative 
analysis, highlighting the importance of regional cooperation and shared responsibility (Biermann & Boas, 2010) in the face 
of flood disasters affecting vulnerable populations. 
Finally, the research formulated policy recommendations for climate resilience and refugee protection, with a focus 
on mitigating flood impacts. This objective aimed to translate the research findings into actionable policy recommendations. 
Drawing on the analysis of flood impacts, refugee vulnerabilities, and the strain on host country resources, the research 
proposed evidence-based strategies to enhance climate resilience and improve the protection of refugees in Malaysia and the 
broader ASEAN region, specifically in the context of increasing flood events. Policy-oriented research and reports (Foresight, 
2011; Kälin & Schrepfer, 2012; UNHCR, 2011) provided valuable guidance for developing effective and sustainable policy 
solutions, emphasizing the need for integrated approaches that addressed both climate change and refugee protection in a 
comprehensive manner when facing the increasing challenges of flooding (McAdam, 2016). 
. 
3. 
Literature Review 
The ASEAN region is identified as a hotspot for climate change impacts, with significant vulnerabilities to rising 
temperatures, sea-level rise, altered rainfall patterns, and increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (Asian 
Development Bank, Various years; IPCC, 2022). These trends and projections are based on extensive climate modeling and 
scientific assessments, indicating a trajectory of increasing climate risks for the region. The impacts are projected to affect 
various sectors, including agriculture, water resources, coastal zones, and human health, posing significant challenges to 
sustainable development (Christensen et al., 2013). The diverse geography and socio-economic conditions within ASEAN 
contribute to varying degrees of vulnerability across member states (Adger, 2006). 

Figure 3. 5-Year Smoothed Share of Population in ASEAN Affected by Floods. Adapted from IDMC. 
https://www.internal-displacement.org/database/displacement-data/ 
When comparing climate change challenges in Malaysia with other ASEAN countries, several key differences and 
similarities emerge. Flooding is a major climate-related hazard across ASEAN, but its specific characteristics and impacts 
vary. Malaysia experiences frequent and severe monsoon flooding, particularly affecting low-lying areas and urban centers 
(DID, 2023; Tang & Abidin, 2018). The low-lying coastal areas and urban centers in Malaysia are particularly susceptible to 
the impacts of increased rainfall and storm surges (Liew, Yusof, & Tham, 2013). Other ASEAN countries, such as Indonesia, 
also face significant flood risks, exacerbated by rapid urbanization and land-use change (IDMC, 2023). Indonesia's 
vulnerability is heightened by its large population density and extensive coastal regions. The Philippines is highly vulnerable 
to flooding associated with typhoons, leading to both riverine and coastal flooding, causing widespread damage and 
displacement (Tang & Abidin, 2018). This diversity in flood impacts is visually represented in Figure 4, which illustrates the 
relationship between flood frequency and average annual damages (% of GDP) across several ASEAN countries. Notably, 
Malaysia is positioned near the origin, indicating a moderate frequency of flood events, around 100, and a relatively low 
economic impact, just above 0.00% of GDP, compared to other nations. Malaysia clusters with Myanmar, Viet Nam, and the 
Philippines, all exhibiting low average annual damages, while experiencing a flood frequency between countries with fewer 
events, like Timor-Leste and Cambodia, and those with more, such as Indonesia, suggesting that despite experiencing floods, 
Malaysia's economic impact, measured as a percentage of GDP, is comparatively minimal. These comparisons highlight the 
diverse nature of flood risks in the region, with each country facing unique challenges that require context-specific adaptation 
strategies and effective disaster risk management (Tang & Abidin, 2018). 
Rising temperatures and heatwaves pose increasing threats throughout ASEAN (METMalaysia, 2023). Malaysia, 
along with other equatorial countries in the region, is experiencing a trend of increasing average temperatures and more 
frequent heat extremes. These heatwaves have significant implications for human health, particularly for vulnerable 
populations, including the elderly, outdoor workers, and marginalized communities (Mordecai, 2024). The impacts of 
heatwaves can be exacerbated by the urban heat island effect, particularly in rapidly urbanizing areas, where built environments 
trap heat and increase temperatures even further (Liu, Couclelis, & Groffman, 2007). The health impacts of heatwaves can be 
particularly severe in urban areas with limited green spaces and inadequate infrastructure (Tacoli, 2011). 
Sea-level rise is a critical concern for many ASEAN countries with extensive coastlines and low-lying areas. Malaysia, 
along with Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, faces significant threats from sea-level rise, which can lead to coastal 
erosion, inundation of coastal communities, and loss of valuable land and ecosystems (McGranahan, Balk, & Anderson, 2007). 
These impacts can disproportionately affect coastal communities that rely on fisheries and other marine resources for their 
livelihoods, leading to displacement and economic hardship (Oliver-Smith, 2009). The long-term consequences of sea-level 
rise necessitate proactive adaptation measures and coastal zone management strategies (Warner et al., 2010). 
The international legal framework, grounded in the 1951 Refugee Convention and its 1967 Protocol, offers a 
foundation for refugee protection, though its application varies across ASEAN, reflecting diverse legal and socio-economic 
contexts. While some nations have integrated aspects of refugee protection into their national laws, others, like Malaysia, are 
presented with an opportunity to enhance their frameworks by aligning with international standards (UNHCR, 2023a). This 
alignment can lead to more consistent and supportive approaches for displaced populations (McAdam, 2012). 

5 
Figure 4: Scatter Plot of ASEAN Countries: Relationship Between Flood Frequency and its Annual Average 
Damage. Note. Data from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) Global Internal Displacement Database 
Malaysia is in a position to develop a more robust legal framework for refugee recognition and protection. By moving 
towards a formal system, Malaysia can create a more predictable and secure environment for refugees and asylum seekers, 
currently addressed under immigration laws (Chew, 2018; Human Rights Commission of Malaysia [SUHAKAM], Various 
years). This development would enhance refugees’ access to essential rights and services, fostering better integration (Castles, 
2003). Additionally, establishing a clear legal framework would provide a solid foundation for addressing the unique needs of 
climate-displaced persons (Kälin & Schrepfer, 2012). 
Thailand and Indonesia are also actively working towards strengthening their refugee management mechanisms, 
including temporary protection and registration processes (UNHCR, 2023). The Philippines, as a signatory to the 1951 
Convention, offers a model for developing comprehensive legal frameworks, and continues to improve its capacity to address 
both refugee protection and internal displacement (IDMC, 2023). These diverse approaches across ASEAN highlight the 
region’s commitment to evolving refugee protection strategies, reflecting each nation’s policy priorities and institutional 
capacities (Martin, 2010). 
Refugee settlements and urban refugee communities across ASEAN are actively engaged in building resilience, with 
opportunities to enhance their living conditions and self-reliance (UNHCR, Various years). Initiatives aimed at improving 
housing, healthcare access, and economic opportunities are underway. By focusing on providing access to formal employment, 
education, and essential services like clean water and sanitation, ASEAN nations can empower refugee communities to thrive 
(UNHCR, Various years; Ellis, 2000; Tacoli, 2011). These efforts contribute to creating more inclusive societies and fostering 
long-term well-being. 
Climate change is increasingly recognized as a significant driver of migration and displacement, both within and across 
borders, adding a new layer of complexity to global migration patterns (Foresight, 2011; McLeman, 2020). Climate-related 
disasters, such as floods, droughts, and storms, and slow-onset environmental degradation, such as sea-level rise and 
desertification, can force people to leave their homes and seek safety or better opportunities elsewhere, leading to both 
temporary and permanent displacement (IOM, 2023). This climate-induced migration can intersect with existing refugee 
situations in complex ways, as climate change impacts can exacerbate vulnerabilities and displacement among refugee 
populations, creating a "double exposure" scenario where individuals face multiple and overlapping risks (Warner, 2010; 
Kälin, 2013). For instance, refugees living in coastal areas or flood-prone regions are particularly vulnerable to climate-related 
disasters, which can further displace them, destroy their shelters, and disrupt access to essential services, creating additional 
challenges for both displaced populations and host communities (IDMC, 2023). The lack of durable solutions for refugees, 
combined with the increasing frequency and intensity of climate-related disasters, can create a cycle of displacement and 
vulnerability. 

Figure 5. Annual Mean Precipitation (mm) in Malaysia, 1990-2022. Note. Data from the World Bank Climate 
Change Knowledge Portal. 
Figure 5 illustrates the annual mean precipitation in Malaysia from 1990 to 2022, showcasing both raw annual data 
(red line) and a 5-year smooth average (blue line) to highlight trends. The graph reveals significant year-to-year fluctuations 
in precipitation, indicating inherent variability in Malaysia's rainfall patterns, with annual totals ranging from approximately 
2,400 mm to 3,600 mm. The 5-year smooth average demonstrates an overall upward trend from 1990 to the late 1990s, a 
subsequent downward trend into the early 2000s, followed by another upward trend leading to the early 2010s, and then a 
downward trend into the late 2010's, and finally an upward trend to 2022. These long-term shifts, combined with the observed 
variability, emphasize the challenges Malaysia faces in water resource management and disaster preparedness, informing 
climate adaptation and mitigation policies. 
Enhanced climate resilience and robust refugee support systems can empower nations to effectively manage the 
combined pressures of climate change and refugee influx, fostering sustainable resource management and societal well-being, 
highlighting the need for integrated approaches that address both climate change adaptation and refugee protection (McAdam, 
2016). Climate change impacts can damage infrastructure, disrupt essential services, and strain public finances, requiring 
significant investments in adaptation and disaster relief efforts, which can divert resources from other essential services (The 
World Bank, 2010; Abdullah & Mohd, 2016). At the same time, the presence of a large refugee population can strain resources 
such as healthcare, housing, education, and social services, particularly in urban areas where resources are already stretched 
(Tacoli, 2011). By building strong climate resilience and refugee support systems, we can empower communities to effectively 
address challenges and enhance their capacity to respond positively to the needs of both host populations and displaced 
individuals. This proactive strategy fosters stability and reduces potential social tensions (Young et al., 2006). Addressing the 
climate-displacement nexus requires a comprehensive and coordinated approach that involves strengthening climate resilience, 
improving refugee protection frameworks, and promoting sustainable development that benefits both host communities and 
displaced populations. 

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Figure 6. Total Disaster Internal Displacements in Malaysia (2015-2023), by Hazard Type. Data Source: Internal 
Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) Global Internal Displacement Database. 
Figure 6 illustrates the total disaster internal displacements in Malaysia from 2015 to 2023, categorized by hazard type. 
Internal displacement refers to the situation where people are forced or obliged to leave their homes but remain within the 
borders of their own country, often due to disasters, conflict, or human rights violations. The graph clearly demonstrates that 
floods are the dominant cause of internal displacement in Malaysia, with the blue line representing flood displacements 
showing significant fluctuations and an overall increasing trend, particularly in recent years. 
The observed trend is corroborated by the empirical data pertaining to the 2021-2022 Malaysian floods, triggered by 
Tropical Depression 29W. This event resulted in the concurrent displacement of over 71,000 residents and a cumulative impact 
on over 125,000 individuals. The salient increase in flood-induced displacements depicted in Figure 6 for the years 2021 and 
2022 directly correlates with the magnitude of this specific disaster. The 2021-2022 floods, characterized as a 'once in a century' 
event, underscore the acute severity of flood-related internal displacement in Malaysia. The substantial volume of displaced 
persons emphasizes the vulnerability of communities to extreme meteorological events, specifically floods, and thereby 
accentuates the imperative for robust disaster management protocols and climate change mitigation strategies. The data points 
reflecting a significant surge in displaced individuals are consistent with the reported figures associated with the 2021-2022 
flood event. 
The substantial internal displacement shown in Figure 6 significantly strains Malaysian communities acting as hosts. 
Though fellow citizens, the displaced require immediate resources, shelter, and support, placing a sudden demand on existing 
infrastructure and social services within affected and adjacent regions. This surge can lead to resource competition, social 
tensions, and increased burdens on local communities. Consequently, Malaysian citizens in these host areas may experience 
heightened anxiety due to the disruption of normal life and potential long-term economic impacts. Fundamentally, the stress 
stems from the rapid and substantial pressure placed on local resources by fellow citizens in need. 
It's crucial to differentiate between internal displacement and refugee status. Refugees’ cross international borders 
seeking asylum, facing legal uncertainty and integration challenges under the 1951 Refugee Convention. Conversely, internally 
displaced persons (IDPs), as depicted in Figure 6, remain within their national borders. Despite being citizens, the scale of 
displacement can overwhelm national resources, rendering IDPs vulnerable and creating a de facto vulnerability similar to that 
faced by refugees, albeit without international legal protections. Both groups endure trauma and loss, but their differing legal 
and social contexts necessitate distinct support strategies. In Malaysia, the stress on host communities, composed of fellow 
citizens, underscores the significant impact of large-scale internal displacement. 
. 
4. 
Conceptual Framework 
This research employs a conceptual framework that integrates climate change impacts, refugee vulnerabilities, and 
host country strain to analyze the compounding crises faced by Malaysia. By providing a structured understanding of the 
complex interplay between these factors, this framework highlights the urgent need for coordinated policy responses. A visual 

representation, as illustrated in Figure 1, serves as a crucial tool for demonstrating these interactions and their broader 
implications. 
At the core of this framework lies Host Country Strain & Policy, representing the immense pressure on Malaysia’s 
governance, resources, and infrastructure due to the combined effects of climate change and the increasing refugee population. 
This central element is interconnected with three key components: climate threats, refugee vulnerability, and climate action. 
Climate threats encompass Malaysia’s most pressing environmental challenges, including severe flooding, rising temperatures, 
and coastal erosion. These threats, documented by agencies such as the Department of Irrigation and Drainage and the 
Malaysian Meteorological Department, disproportionately affect vulnerable communities, especially refugees living in 
informal settlements. Refugee vulnerability captures the precarious conditions faced by displaced populations in Malaysia, 
including insecure housing, unstable livelihoods, restricted access to healthcare and education, and the lack of legal 
recognition. Data from UNHCR reports and human rights organizations illustrate how these factors heighten refugees’ 
susceptibility to climate extremes, further exacerbating their hardship. Climate action, on the other hand, encompasses both 
mitigation efforts to reduce climate change drivers and adaptation strategies to manage its effects. Effective climate policies 
can strengthen disaster preparedness, safeguard vulnerable communities, and alleviate pressure on Malaysia’s infrastructure. 
However, the absence of long-term, inclusive policies may worsen existing challenges. The framework also visually represents 
the causal relationships between these elements through directional arrows. Climate threats intensify refugee vulnerabilities, 
as extreme weather events disproportionately impact communities living in high-risk areas with limited access to adaptive 
resources. Climate action can play a pivotal role in reducing both climate threats and refugee vulnerabilities by implementing 
sustainable solutions such as flood management systems, inclusive disaster response planning, and climate-resilient 
infrastructure. However, ineffective or short-term climate action may fail to address the root causes, exacerbating the existing 
crisis and creating a negative feedback loop of increasing vulnerability and systemic strain. 
Figure 7: Triple Lens Framework for Climate Change and Refugee Migration 

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The Triple Lens Framework offers a visual representation of the multifaceted challenges at the intersection of climate 
change and refugee migration, focusing on the case of Malaysia. This framework employs three interconnected lenses—
Strategic Design, Political, and Cultural—to provide a holistic analysis. The Strategic Design Lens, depicted by a light blue 
circle, emphasizes the importance of data and conceptual frameworks in addressing the issue. The Political Lens, represented 
by a yellow circle, highlights policy opportunities for refinement, national security concerns, and refugee management as 
critical factors. The Cultural Lens, shown in a light green circle, underscores the significance of lived experiences, cultural 
context, and climate adaptation strategies. These lenses collectively illustrate the complex interplay between climate threats, 
refugee vulnerabilities, and the resultant strain on the host country, Malaysia. 
This research explicitly frames Malaysia as a case study of compounding crises, exemplifying the complex challenges 
arising from the intersection of climate change and refugee migration. This analysis focuses on Malaysia due to its status as a 
major refugee-hosting country in ASEAN, its high vulnerability to climate change impacts, and the opportunity to explore 
better solutions for refugee protection. Studying Malaysia provides valuable insights for other ASEAN countries facing similar 
challenges and contributes to a broader understanding of the climate-displacement nexus in the region.  
5. 
Methodology 
This research adopted a mixed-methods design to comprehensively investigate the complex interplay between climate 
change, refugee migration, and host community dynamics. Employing a mixed-methods approach facilitated the integration 
of quantitative and qualitative data, providing a robust and holistic analysis (Creswell & Plano Clark, 2018; Teddlie & 
Tashakkori, 2009). Quantitative data offered statistical evidence and comparative insights, while qualitative data provided in-
depth perspectives from diverse stakeholders. 
Leveraging open data and Python within a Google Colab environment, this study transformed raw data into actionable 
findings. Quantitative data, encompassing climate trends, refugee statistics, and socioeconomic indicators, were sourced from 
reputable repositories, including UNHCR, the World Bank, METMalaysia, IPCC, IDMC, and DOSM. Python libraries 
(Pandas, NumPy, SciPy) were utilized for data cleaning, statistical modeling, and comparative analysis. Data visualization 
tools (Matplotlib, Seaborn) were employed to enhance the presentation of key findings. 
Qualitative data comprised policy documents from national and regional sources, including climate change, disaster 
management, and refugee protection policies, ASEAN frameworks, and relevant international agreements. 
Data analysis integrated both quantitative and qualitative methods. Statistical analysis of climate data identified trends 
and patterns in temperature, rainfall, and extreme weather events, utilizing descriptive statistics, trend analysis, and correlation 
analysis. Refugee data was summarized using descriptive statistics, highlighting demographic characteristics and displacement 
patterns. Comparative analysis of climate change impacts, refugee situations, and policy responses across selected ASEAN 
countries was conducted through statistical comparisons and indicator assessments. Thematic analysis (Braun & Clarke, 2006) 
was employed to analyze interview data, identifying recurring themes and patterns. Content analysis systematically examined 
policy documents to identify key themes, priorities, and policy gaps. 
The comparative analysis was guided by criteria encompassing climate change and refugee policies, institutional 
capacity, resource allocation, and impacts on refugee populations and host communities. This involved integrating diverse data 
sources for a comprehensive comparison of selected ASEAN countries. Ethical standards were strictly adhered to, with 
informed consent obtained from all participants and confidentiality and anonymity ensured. 
6. 
Findings and Discussion 
6.1 Malaysia’s Host Country Strain 
Malaysia faces a significant strain due to the escalating impacts of climate change, which are causing substantial 
internal displacement among its own citizens, alongside the challenges posed by hosting refugees and asylum seekers. The 
increasing frequency and severity of flooding events, exacerbated by monsoon seasons and rapid urbanization, have led to 
widespread displacement, damage to infrastructure, and economic losses (DID, 2023; Tang & Abidin, 2018). For example, the 
severe floods in December 2021 and early 2022, triggered by Tropical Depression 29W, resulted in an estimated RM 6.1 
billion (approximately US$1.46 billion) in overall losses. This 'once-in-a-century' event, impacting Selangor, Kuala Lumpur, 
Pahang, and other states, underscores the vulnerability of both urban and rural Malaysian communities. The strain on disaster 
response capacity from these events necessitates significant resource allocation, potentially diverting funds from other essential 
services  

Figure 8: Categorical Composition of Total Flood Losses by Malaysian State. Data Source: Special Report on Impact of 
Floods in Malaysia by Department of Statistic Malaysia (2023) 
Figure 8, Categorical Composition of Total Flood Losses by Malaysian State, from the Department of Statistics 
Malaysia (2023), illustrates the breadth of these impacts, with Living Quarters consistently representing the largest loss 
category. This highlights the direct impact on Malaysian citizens homes. Figure 9, Living Quarters Flood Losses by Malaysian 
State for Year 2022-2023, also from the Department of Statistics Malaysia (2023), further demonstrates the escalating strain, 
showing increased losses in residential areas across most states, particularly in Sabah. These figures underscore the growing 
internal displacement and the burden on Malaysian communities acting as hosts to their displaced fellow citizens. 
Beyond flooding, Malaysia experiences rising average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves (METMalaysia, 
2023). These pose health risks, especially for vulnerable populations with limited access to cooling. The urban heat island 
effect exacerbates these impacts, straining energy infrastructure and public health (Liu, Couclelis, & Groffman, 2007; IPCC, 
2021). Environmental degradation, including deforestation, pollution, and coastal erosion, further contributes to these 
vulnerabilities, impacting livelihoods and potentially leading to further internal displacement (McGranahan, Balk, & 
Anderson, 2007). 
Figure 9: Living Quarters Flood Losses by Malaysian State for Year 2022-2023. Data Source: Special Report on Impact of 
Floods in Malaysia by Department of Statistic Malaysia (2023) 

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While climate change impacts disproportionately affect vulnerable communities, including refugees, it's crucial to 
acknowledge that Malaysian citizens are the primary victims of internal displacement due to these events. The vulnerabilities 
faced by refugees, such as insecure housing and limited access to resources, are also experienced by internally displaced 
Malaysians. These intersecting vulnerabilities, compounded by factors like poverty and discrimination, necessitate 
comprehensive strategies that address the needs of all affected populations. 
Figure 10: Total Refugee in Malaysia and its Children Percentage. Data Source: UNCHR Malaysia. 
https://www.unhcr.org/my/what-we-do/figures-glance-malaysia 
Malaysia, as a significant host nation, accommodates a substantial refugee population, placing notable strain on its 
existing resources. According to UNHCR data, as of the latest reporting year, approximately 192,800 refugees and asylum 
seekers were registered within the country (Figure 10). The demographic profile of this population presents key areas of 
concern. A significant proportion, 28.46%, are children, which adds pressure to educational and social service systems (Figure 
10). The gender distribution reveals a higher count of male refugees (125,320) compared to female refugees (67,480), 
potentially exacerbating existing social tensions (Figure 11).  
Figure 11: Refugee Gender Distribution. Data Source: UNCHR Malaysia. https://www.unhcr.org/my/what-we-
do/figures-glance-malaysia 

Figure 12: Refugee Origin in Malaysia. Data Source: UNCHR Malaysia. https://www.unhcr.org/my/what-we-
do/figures-glance-malaysia 
The primary source of this refugee influx is Myanmar, contributing a staggering 171,450 individuals, which places a 
concentrated demand for resources and potentially leads to cultural friction (Figure 12). Within the Myanmar refugee 
community, the Rohingya ethnicity represents the largest segment, with 112,320 individuals, requiring substantial resources 
(Figure 13). Malaysia, while not a signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention, plays a crucial role in regional displacement 
management, which presents unique policy and security challenges. 
The geographical distribution of refugees within Malaysia presents a clear pattern of urban concentration. A significant 
38% reside in Selangor, followed by 19% in Kuala Lumpur, indicating a notable strain on urban infrastructure and service 
provision (Figure 14). This concentration necessitates focused resource allocation in these areas, potentially diverting funds 
from other critical sectors. The disparity in distribution, with several states reporting minimal or no refugee presence, highlights 
the potential for localized crises and security concerns (Figure 14). 
Figure 13: Breakdown of Ethnic of Major Myanmar Refugee in Malaysia. Data Source: UNCHR Malaysia. 
https://www.unhcr.org/my/what-we-do/figures-glance-malaysia 

13 
Figure 14: Refugee distribution by Malaysian State. Data Source: UNCHR Malaysia. 
https://www.unhcr.org/my/what-we-do/figures-glance-malaysia 
The presence of a large refugee population places significant demands on Malaysia's healthcare system. Refugees often 
face barriers to accessing healthcare, leading to increased pressure on existing medical services and potential public health 
risks. Housing is another critical area, with many refugees residing in overcrowded conditions, impacting urban planning and 
potentially leading to social unrest. The need for adequate housing solutions may strain existing infrastructure and resources. 
Furthermore, the limited legal right to work leads to refugees engaging in informal employment, potentially disrupting 
the labor market and contributing to economic instability. This situation poses challenges for law enforcement and economic 
management. The data presented in Figures 10-14 collectively underscores the potential for the refugee population to strain 
Malaysia's resources and create security challenges if not rigorously managed. 
6.2 ASEAN Comparisons 
Figure 15: Refugee population in ASEAN countries Year 2000-2024. Adapted from UNHCR Refugee Data Finder. 
https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics 

Figure 16: Scatter plot Qualitative revision comparing Refugee Policy Strength and Climate Policy Strength in four 
Southeast Asian countries. Adapted from UNHCR Refugee Data Finder. https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics 
Southeast Asian nations demonstrate a spectrum of approaches to refugee and climate policies, reflecting their unique 
political, economic, and geographical contexts. A comparative analysis, as visualized in Figure 16, reveals distinct strengths 
and areas for development that shape the region's response to these critical challenges. The Philippines leads with its robust 
legal framework for refugee protection, grounded in its signatory status to the 1951 Refugee Convention and bolstered by 
comprehensive national refugee laws, positioning its refugee policy strength at a commendable 3.9. This commitment is further 
exemplified by its well-developed disaster response mechanisms and a strong climate policy framework, achieving a 4.0. 
Given its high vulnerability to natural disasters, the Philippines has invested significantly in early warning systems, evacuation 
procedures, and community-based disaster risk reduction, emphasizing local participation and empowerment. The Philippines 
continues to enhance its strategies for addressing internal displacement, particularly in regions prone to recurrent disasters and 
armed conflict, striving for even more effective and sustainable solutions.    
Figure 17: Refugee population in Malaysia Year 2000-2024. Adapted from UNHCR Refugee Data Finder. 
https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics 

15 
Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand are actively developing their approaches to refugee management, each with its own 
set of complexities and opportunities for progress. Malaysia's approach, characterized by ad hoc measures, presents an 
opportunity to enhance its framework for refugee support. As evidenced in Figure 15, which illustrates refugee population 
trends in ASEAN countries from 2000 to 2024, Malaysia exhibits a distinct upward trend in its refugee population when 
compared to other ASEAN nations. Specifically, while countries like Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, the Philippines, 
Singapore, and Viet Nam maintain consistently low and relatively stable refugee populations near zero, Malaysia's numbers 
show a notable increase. From 2000 to 2010, Malaysia's refugee population gradually rises, but after 2010, the trend becomes 
more pronounced, showing a clear and steady upward trajectory. This pattern contrasts sharply with the stable low numbers in 
several other ASEAN countries, and even differs from Thailand's volatile trend, which features significant fluctuations. This 
consistent growth in Malaysia indicates a sustained and increasing role as a host country for refugees, highlighting the urgent 
need for Malaysia to transition from ad hoc measures to a more formalized framework that can effectively address the needs 
of its expanding refugee population. While Malaysia has established national climate policies and plans for adaptation and 
mitigation, achieving a moderate climate policy strength of 3.2 (Figure 16), there's potential to further strengthen 
implementation and enforcement. Indonesia and Thailand, while offering some level of temporary protection, are working 
towards more comprehensive legal frameworks for refugee status determination, currently at 2.2 and 2.3, respectively (Figure 
16). Both nations are actively balancing national priorities with their humanitarian responsibilities. Indonesia, with its vast 
archipelago and population, is focused on enhancing its resilience to sea-level rise and extreme weather events, while Thailand 
is making strides in disaster preparedness, particularly in urban areas, and is committed to integrating climate considerations 
across all sectors. As shown in Figure 15, Thailand has experienced significant fluctuations in its refugee population, 
particularly around 2015, where a sharp increase is followed by a gradual decline, highlighting the need for flexible and 
responsive refugee management strategies.    
A shared opportunity for growth across these nations, including Malaysia, lies in the enhanced integration of refugees 
and migrants into climate change adaptation planning, which would positively impact their resilience to climate-related risks. 
This integration can be facilitated by increased recognition of these populations as valuable stakeholders and improved data 
collection on their specific needs. The Philippines' emphasis on community participation and local government responsibility 
in disaster management, as evidenced by its comprehensive legal framework and disaster risk reduction initiatives, offers a 
valuable model for Malaysia's more centralized approach. Conversely, the Philippines could benefit from exploring Malaysia's 
strategies for urban resilience and managing diverse refugee populations in urban settings, particularly in contexts where 
formal legal frameworks are evolving. These exchanges of best practices can lead to more effective and inclusive policies. 
7. 
Policy Recommendations 
Malaysia faces a multifaceted challenge at the nexus of climate change and displacement, necessitating a collaborative 
approach involving international actors, ASEAN member states, organizations (e.g., philanthropic foundations, NGOs), and 
crucially, global climate action (McAdam, 2016). This complex interplay of factors requires a holistic strategy that addresses 
both the immediate humanitarian needs and the long-term drivers of displacement. International actors must prioritize global 
climate action alongside direct support for Malaysia. This involves adhering to and strengthening international agreements 
like the Paris Agreement, committing to ambitious emissions reduction targets, and supporting the transition to renewable 
energy sources globally (IPCC, 2022). As Warner (2010) highlights, climate change acts as a “threat multiplier,” exacerbating 
existing vulnerabilities and leading to increased displacement. 
In addition to global efforts, international actors should prioritize providing substantial financial assistance to 
Malaysia. This support should be directed toward enhancing its climate adaptation infrastructure, including flood control 
systems, resilient housing, and early warning systems, with specific allocations for addressing internal displacement (DID, 
2023; METMalaysia, 2023). Initiatives focused on building community-level resilience, particularly in areas with high 
concentrations of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs), should be supported. As Tacoli (2011) argues, urban areas, 
where many displaced persons reside, require targeted investments in infrastructure and services to enhance resilience. 
Furthermore, funding programs that promote sustainable land use and environmental conservation are essential to mitigate the 
drivers of both external and internal displacement (World Bank, 2024). McLeman (2020) emphasizes the importance of 
addressing the root causes of displacement through sustainable development and environmental management. Technical 
expertise and capacity building are also critical. International actors should offer technical assistance in developing and 
implementing comprehensive disaster risk management plans, climate adaptation strategies, and specific internal displacement 
policies. Capacity-building programs should be supported for Malaysian government officials, NGOs, and community leaders 
in areas such as climate modeling, disaster preparedness, internal displacement management, and refugee management 
(UNHCR, Various years). Facilitating knowledge sharing and technology transfer related to climate-resilient infrastructure, 
sustainable development, and best practices in internal displacement response is also crucial. As Kälin (2013) notes, effective 
displacement responses require strong institutional capacity and coordination. 
Moreover, humanitarian aid and emergency response should be a priority. International actors should provide rapid 
and flexible humanitarian aid to support Malaysia in responding to climate-related disasters and emergencies that cause both 

refugee influx and internal displacement (IDMC, 2023). This includes supporting the prepositioning of emergency supplies 
and the development of early warning systems to enhance disaster preparedness, with specific attention to the needs of IDPs. 
As Wisner, Blaikie, Cannon, & Davis (2004) argue, disaster preparedness must consider the vulnerabilities of marginalized 
populations, including IDPs. Funding and support for the development of a National level IDP register, in order to make aid 
more efficient, is also needed. ASEAN member states should strengthen regional cooperation on climate action and 
displacement. This can be achieved through initiatives like the ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency 
Response. Establishing a regional fund to support climate adaptation, disaster resilience, and internal displacement projects in 
vulnerable member states, including Malaysia, is vital. Sharing best practices and lessons learned on climate change adaptation, 
refugee management, and internal displacement response is also essential. As Biermann & Boas (2010) highlight, regional 
cooperation is crucial for addressing transboundary challenges like climate change and displacement. 
A joint displacement management framework should be developed. This includes creating a regional framework for 
addressing all forms of displacement, including refugees and IDPs, promoting burden-sharing and cooperation among ASEAN 
member states. Establishing a regional platform for information sharing and coordination on displacement issues is also 
necessary. ASEAN member states should support Malaysia in developing and implementing comprehensive national 
frameworks for both refugee protection and internal displacement management. As Achiume (2019) argues, regional 
frameworks can enhance protection and promote equitable burden-sharing. Furthermore, cross-border and internal disaster 
response coordination needs to be enhanced. Joint disaster response plans and protocols should be developed to ensure rapid 
and effective assistance to all affected populations, including refugees and IDPs. 
Organizations should provide flexible funding for community-based initiatives addressing all displacement. This 
includes supporting initiatives that address the needs of both refugees and IDPs in climate-vulnerable areas. Projects that 
promote climate resilience, livelihood diversification, social integration, and specific programs for IDP support and integration 
should be prioritized. As Bebbington (1999) argues, community-based approaches are essential for addressing complex 
development challenges. Advocacy and awareness raising on all displacement issues are also critical. Organizations should 
support advocacy efforts to raise awareness about the challenges faced by both refugees and IDPs in Malaysia and the need 
for greater international and regional support. Funding research and data collection to improve understanding of the climate-
displacement nexus, including internal displacement, and inform policy development is essential. 
Finally, partnerships and collaboration for comprehensive displacement solutions should be facilitated. This involves 
creating partnerships and collaboration between government agencies, NGOs, community-based organizations, and academic 
institutions to enhance climate resilience and develop comprehensive displacement solutions, including IDP-specific 
strategies. Support for the development of innovative solutions and best practices for addressing the complex challenges faced 
by Malaysia, encompassing all forms of displacement, is also necessary. As Young et al. (2006) argue, effective governance 
requires collaboration across multiple stakeholders. 
8. 
Conclusion 
This research has illuminated the precarious position of Malaysia, burdened by the converging pressures of climate 
change-induced displacement and a substantial refugee population. The data starkly reveals the significant internal 
displacement triggered by intensifying climate disasters, most notably the devastating 2021-2022 floods, which placed 
immense strain on national resources and exposed the vulnerability of communities across the nation. This crisis underscores 
the immediate and tangible impact of climate change on Malaysia's own citizens, highlighting the need for robust disaster 
preparedness and mitigation strategies. Simultaneously, Malaysia's role as a major refugee host, with a significant 
concentration of refugees in urban centers like Selangor and Kuala Lumpur, further exacerbates these pressures, challenging 
existing infrastructure, healthcare systems, and social services. The demographic analysis, highlighting the substantial 
proportion of children and the predominantly male refugee population, underscores the complex socio-economic implications. 
Comparative analysis within ASEAN underscores the urgent need for Malaysia to evolve beyond ad hoc measures and 
establish a robust, formalized framework for both refugee protection and climate resilience, as other nations in the region are 
actively adapting their approaches. The implications of these findings are profound, extending beyond immediate humanitarian 
concerns. Without immediate, coordinated action, Malaysia risks escalating social instability, depleting critical resources, and 
undermining its long-term development goals. This report, therefore, advocates for a multi-faceted strategy encompassing 
robust global climate action, fortified ASEAN cooperation through initiatives like the ASEAN Agreement on Disaster 
Management and Emergency Response, and targeted community-based initiatives that empower vulnerable populations. 
Moreover, the creation of a national IDP register, along with increased funding for climate adaptation infrastructure, is critical. 
Ultimately, addressing this complex nexus of climate change and displacement requires a collaborative and holistic approach. 
International actors must prioritize climate mitigation and provide substantial financial and technical assistance. ASEAN 
member states need to strengthen regional frameworks and foster cooperation. Local organizations and community-based 
initiatives play a crucial role in building resilience and promoting social integration. Only through such a comprehensive and 
collaborative effort, involving all stakeholders, can Malaysia effectively navigate these complex challenges, build resilience, 
and secure a sustainable and equitable future for all its inhabitants, refugees and citizens alike. 

17 
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