Without that, if I can't write that there is compelling evidence backing up Tripp's allegations, this is going to blow up in your face--and Tripp's.
Whatever he says, we can rely on. 
mnli hypothesis: Whatever he says, we can rely on.  premise: Without that, if I can't write that there is compelling evidence backing up Tripp's allegations, this is going to blow up in your face--and Tripp's.