Commission Vice President Jyrki Katainen said Wednesday that he will not run for European Commission president next year, clearing the way for another former Finnish prime minister, Alexander Stubb, to seek the nomination of the European People’s Party.
Katainen’s decision, which he revealed to a small group of reporters on Wednesday, ends months of speculation about which of the two former Finnish premiers might seek to become the nominee of the EPP, the pan-European alliance of center-right parties.
”Jyrki Katainen would have been an excellent candidate, but I understand and respect his decision,” Stubb said. “I will reflect over a possible candidacy over the coming months, discuss it with my family and European friends. I hope to have cleared my head after the summer holidays, and by that I mean the Brussels break.”
Whoever becomes the group’s lead candidate will be in pole position to take the EU’s most powerful post as the EPP is widely expected to come first in next year’s European Parliament election.
The two men are friends and Stubb, who succeeded Katainen as prime minister in 2014 and is currently a vice president of the European Investment Bank, had said he would support Katainen if he ran. That essentially gave Katainen the right of first refusal to seek the top job.
“I thought a long time, and am not going to run,” Katainen said. “It was a tough decision. Commission president is one of the most interesting jobs, especially for a person who believes in Europe and wants to develop Europe.”
Katainen’s decision had been foreshadowed by another candidacy altogether — a bid by his wife, Mervi, for a seat in the Finnish parliament in a national election next April. Her announcement led to widespread speculation in the Finnish press that the family had decided to return home to Helsinki and that Katainen would not seek a higher office in Brussels.
The Katainens have two young daughters, aged 8 and 12, and close associates had said it was highly unlikely the couple would want a situation in which one of them was required to make a sustained, long-distance commute.
Katainen, aged 46, is widely viewed as a level-headed and highly capable public official. But even some friends and supporters have questioned if he has the required fire in the belly — and the knack for self-promotion — needed to serve in the EU’s top post.
On Wednesday, he said he is looking forward to new professional opportunities. “I have been in politics since I was 21,” he said. “I will try something else.”
By contrast, Stubb, aged 50, is known as a triathlete and participant in Ironman competitions, and is clearly interested in a senior EU position. There is no doubt about his enthusiasm for attention and self-promotion, evidenced by his active social media presence, which includes a photo on his Twitter page showing off his biceps.
Earlier this week, Stubb insisted there was nothing for him to think about until Katainen had made up his mind.
“I’m very relaxed about it, in the sense that I don’t have to think about it seriously before Jyrki makes a decision,” Stubb told reporters at a briefing in Brussels on Monday. “And when Jyrki has made a decision I will probably take my time and reflect. If the decision is yes, then I don’t have to reflect that much, I’ll support him. If the answer is no, then I’ll sit down and think about it.”
After POLITICO published an article listing him among potential contenders for the Commission presidency, Stubb teasingly tweeted, “I will be running” … in the Hamburg marathon.
The EPP, which is the party of Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and European Council President Donald Tusk, currently holds the largest number of seats in the European Parliament and is generally expected to retain that position after next year’s election. Under the so-called Spitzenkandidat (German for “lead candidate”) process that Europe’s major political families have agreed to follow, the candidate from the party winning the most seats should be nominated by the Council for Commission president.
The Council has said it will not automatically follow the Spitzenkandidat process, which is not legally spelled out in the EU treaties. Some leaders say the process would wrongly limit the Council’s ability to nominate the person EU leaders view as the best candidate. But EU leaders have also acknowledged that being a Spitzenkandidat would give anyone seeking the Commission presidency a big advantage.
Adding to the potential excitement around a Finnish Spitzenkandidat from the EPP is that the party’s nominating congress will be held in Helsinki in November.
Even as the EPP remains the strongest EU political family, Emmanuel Macron, who shunned established parties to form his own movement and win the French presidency, is widely viewed as the most exciting pro-EU political force at the moment. Macron has yet to affiliate with any of the major EU political families, but a number of potential candidates for the EU’s top jobs have made efforts to court his support, or to demonstrate that they are Macron-compatible, to use a new phrase in the French political lexicon.
Stubb on Monday stressed his own pro-EU credentials. “Party affiliation probably matters a little bit less right now, in ideological terms left or right, rather than for or against European integration,” he said. “So I’m rather Macronesque on this.”
They will also fancy their chances but in my view will struggle to improve on 2016. I'd also throw in Ger Carty, Ind, as one to watch closely should he run.
Perhaps there's room for a female candidate to break the mould. Also New Ross presents an opportunity for someone from the area.
Howlin, on current levels of Labour support should be the only Labour incumbent returned. That said, he'll have a fight of it. His recent howler regarding european brexit support for Ireland may come back to haunt him, though.
As the big name in Wexford Town, the rest are from elsewhere, and with a strong personal vote, it would be a shock if he doesn't make it. James Browne, who inherited from his daddy, John, is the other shoe in. He's from outside Enniscorthy. Wallace is more difficult to predict as he doesn't do the parish pump, at all, but he'll get votes from all over. The 2 FG were vulnerable last time out, and they're both uninspiring might be vulnerable again but may get a lift if FG improve. They're from outside Ennuscirthy and Gorey. A New Ross candidate is difficult to say, as Wallace gets a good chunk from that area, despite being geographically quite distant from New Ross. Malcolm Byrne is from Gorey, but will take superb vote management to get him in with Browne. Carty is quite popular, inherited his Council seat from his dad. While from outside Wexford Town, he works there and is prominent. If he runs and it's a big if, then Howlin just might be vulnerable.
It's hard to call but even if he's in a scrap for last place, he'll be quite transfer friendly given his good work with soccer, plus he's instantly recognisable. A long shot to lose out.