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Global economic growth appears to have lost steam in the third quarter in annual terms following Q2’s strong showing. A preliminary GDP estimate for the global economy put year-on-year growth at 3.3% for Q3. While the print was a notch below the 3.4% increase from the previous period, it matched last month’s forecast.
Incoming data suggests that the Latin American economy remained soft in the third quarter. FocusEconomics estimates that regional GDP growth (excluding Venezuela) remained broadly unchanged, inching up from Q2’s 1.7% to 1.8% year-on-year. The second quarter’s result had marked the worst performance in one year as shocks in major-players Argentina and Brazil held back growth.
According to a preliminary estimate, the economy of Central America and the Caribbean should have expanded 3.4% in the third quarter, which, if confirmed, would mark an acceleration from Q2’s 2.2%. Excluding Puerto Rico, growth likely picked up from 3.6% in Q2 to 3.8% in Q3.
According to a more complete estimate by FocusEconomics, ASEAN expanded 4.9% in the third quarter of 2018, buttressed by strong domestic demand. However, this still marks a loss of momentum from the second quarter’s 5.2% expansion.
Higher oil prices, contagion from this summer’s currency crises in Argentina and Turkey and mounting economic uncertainty sent economic growth in East and South Asia (ESA) to an over one-year low in the third quarter. Nevertheless, the region benefited from tight labor markets and supportive public policies in some countries, such as China and Korea. According to an estimate for the region produced by FocusEconomics, ESA countries grew an aggregated 6.1% year-on-year in the third quarter. While the print was considerably below the 6.4% expansion in the second quarter, it was still in line with the estimate reported last month.
Incoming data suggests that economic dynamics were little changed in the Eurozone in the third quarter. FocusEconomics estimates that GDP grew a seasonally-adjusted 0.4% over the previous period, which if confirmed, would match the first and second quarter’s results. While economic momentum remained solid bolstered by accommodative monetary policy and a tightening labor market, growth has nearly halved from 2017’s stellar pace due to a less favorable external environment and softer economic sentiment.
Available data suggests that growth across the Central and Eastern European (CEE) economy continued to taper in the third quarter, on the heels of a boisterous second-quarter outturn underpinned by solid internal demand. According to a preliminary estimate by FocusEconomics, regional growth came in at 3.8% year-on-year in the third quarter, the slowest expansion in nearly two years and down considerably from the snappy 4.2% annual pace clocked in the second quarter.
According to an estimate by FocusEconomics, South-Eastern Europe’s (SEE) economy lost steam in the third quarter and grew 2.6% annually, down notably from Q2’s 4.3% expansion. The slowdown was likely driven chiefly by a moderation in growth in regional powerhouse Turkey, which accounts for around half of the region’s nominal GDP.
The recovery in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) is expected to have taken a breather in the third quarter, after growth shot up in the second quarter. FocusEconomics projects that regional GDP growth slid from 2.4% annually to 2.1% in Q3. While higher commodity prices are expected to continue giving a boost to activity in the region, sluggish momentum in Russia is expected to have weighed on the region and spilled over, denting growth in other economies.
According to an estimate by FocusEconomics, the MENA economy should have expanded 2.3% in Q3. If confirmed, this would mark a slight deceleration from Q2’s revised 2.5% growth (previously reported: +2.6% year-on-year).
Comprehensive second-quarter data revealed an unexpectedly downbeat outturn for the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) economy, which faltered mid-year as the region’s heavyweights staggered. Regional growth in the second quarter was slashed to 2.2% year-on-year, down significantly from both preliminary estimates (previously reported: +2.8% year-on-year) and the outset of the year (Q1: +2.6% year-on-year). Despite deteriorating metrics in Angola, Nigeria and South Africa, the region’s major players, much of the region notched faster gains as export-oriented economies continued shaking off the commodity slump. Economic tailwinds, including favorable weather conditions and firmer commodity prices, look set to persist through the remainder of the year; in line with anticipated upturns in Angola, Nigeria and South Africa, FocusEconomics expects regional growth to have recovered in the third quarter, to 3.0% year-on-year.
Industrial output contracted in September, falling a seasonally-adjusted 0.3% over the previous month.
Urban fixed asset investment expanded 5.7% annually in the first 10 months of the year, up from the 5.4% increase in the first 9 months of the year.
Industrial production expanded 5.9% year-on-year in October, up from a 5.8% rise in September and overshooting market expectations of 5.8%. October’s print mainly reflected faster growth in the mining and manufacturing sectors, while the dynamics in the production and distribution of electricity, heating power, gas and water softened compared to September. On a month-on-month basis, industrial production increased 0.48% in seasonally-adjusted terms in October, unchanged from September’s expansion.
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