Elliot Wave analyses are not 100% correct. Those analyses usually fails on crypto market. I never trust Elliot Wave and i prefer trend channels and fibonacci levels.
I'm sure that further pessimistic forecasts that say that bitcoin will drop below 5500 is a bluff. These forecasts were created specifically to prevent many people from now buying bitcoin at a very low price. The lowest price that year.
Is this another FUD or what? Well, this may look so scary but i really have made up my mind to hold my crypto for several years because i have high hopes and beliefs specifically to bitcoin and other alt coins. Since i am already here, so i am also ready to take the risks.
It is true, but if you think about it and if you have studied well, Elliot's waves combined with the Fibonacci levels are a fundamental weapon / aid for AT on Bitcoin; if then to Elliot and Fibonacci you can also match the cycles of Gann (in my opinion the most difficult and complicated to study, understand and apply in AT) you are a BEST TRADER and you will have much to gain!
After declining 30% from the high of 24-JUL to the low of 14-AUG, the Bitcoin market has now rallied approx 25% into the 31-AUG CME futures last trade date.
Typically, the rally ought retrace a Fibonacci 50% to 61.8% of the previous downtrend (i.e. from 24-JUL to 14-AUG), with possible approx upside targets as follows:
With overbought price/RSI negative divergences on the 4-hr timeframe, and with the first of the aforementioned Fibonacci targets reached; barring any wave extensions, it is quite possible that the bounce is nearing completion.
At present juncture, taking out 6880 ought to signal weakening momentum, and the start of a trend reversal.
Once the current bounce completes, the next sell-off leg ought to mirror the first, i.e. a 30% drop towards 5200 approx (5178 BITFINEX) by possibly mid-September, coinciding with the CBOT XBT futures expiration on 19-SEP.
Models are speculative Elliott Wave guesswork indicative of price/structure; the projections may occur sooner or later than anticipated.
It seems you cant predict even what will happen in 12 days. And Bitcoin price two times run out of your triangle. Dont you think you will have to modify that triangle a bit?
either we reverse and go bull from here, either we go to 5200, but either way a big move is in preparation, place your bets gentlemen !!!
3rd option is an eternal boring flat negative grind until everyone forgets to check a chart for a couple of weeks.
Option 1 is not an option. Too early for a bull run. Fundamentals didn't improve much yet to justify another serious bull run now. Your option 2 looks more realistic, as well as option 3 (the one mentioned in the post above mine).
I think the biggest factor that causes cryptocurrencies prices to drop is the many negative news about Crypto, this has the effect that more and more countries are banned from crypto so that the market crashes and even many crypto crashes.
I don't think Bitcoin's price will fall below $5000, because the miners' bottom line is at this price. When Bitcoin is below this price, there will be a lot of investors buying Bitcoin.
Whatever the price you think ( a theoretical miner for arguments sake ) you are mining BTC for you can be certain someone somewhere is paying less.
This number varies drastically around the world and miners will mine at loss to build a war chest for future bull markets anyway.
I'd argue that someone somewhere is paying next to nothing, at least some of the time, due to the a mix of politics, geothermal availability and or the economics of running power stations around demand cycles.
There are investors waiting at all price points. The question is. At which price point do the investors outweigh the sellers / profit takers?
I don't believe there is a magic threshold here. It could easily be $500 as $5k. This market has been, and will remain, irrational to both the upside and the downside.
So far these charts confirm my bias for more pain to come. Simply because the universe won't let me get rich that easy, if at all.
It's relevance might end right here but it will be a usable reference for may market cycles to come.
Yup we should not see bull run this year. Next year will happen although few in this thread predict it will not happen.
nice call wave man, i think we go to 5200, all they need now is to time well the rejection of the ETF for us to go down big
what i wonder is what happens next, there is the BAKKT exchange and I assume it will be a sell the news moment and i'll treat it that way, but where will be resistance? In 2014-2015, there was 382 400 and 332 that were support for a long time, once we break it they became resistance, after bottom we couldnt even break 300-313 for nearly 11 months
if we stop at 5200 that doesnt give much of a bounce to be honest so doubt it will be the bottom, maybe we'll stop them because traders have to cover their short and 30% swing with leverage is good profit and its been whats been done so far
and poor eth holders, this is going to be messy for them, please wave man share us a picture of their future chart !
EDIT: the fact this thread never stays long on page 1 is also an indicator; its like secret hidden knowledge the whales in control of the market dont want the masses to know; same happened to the beti thread during the run up, it was very hard to see it because rarely on the first page.
lol no, look at the polls on the wall observers and just read the trollbox on bitmex, and look at how market react, there has been so much shorting opportunities because dumb money get excited at every $200 pump (for instance right now, if market was smart it would keep dumping, going up again is just a crazy good short opprtunity (right at the top of the middle bband))
mainstream news still has expert saying we go above ath before end of year, pantera capital and DCG said bottom was made at 6K. (lol at that, they shorted like crazy before the future introduction, created fake website and fake fork to exit LTC and XMR and ETC for USD)
I dont think you guys realize the amount of hedge funds there was playing this bubble and selling the coins to retail, they are here since ETH are at 1$ and xmr at 15$. This is an industry. They created a whole industry into taking money from the sheep hands. They have no pity. Their ressources are high. They even own the media for fuck sake. Coindesk belong to DCG. These guys are literally creating wall of text to hype the tops so they can exit their position
Right now they are manipulating bitcoin down on bitmex, look at the volume there, you think its retail? there are 3BN volume daily LOL ! they are just exhausting the market until retail has capitulated. Volatility is still high. Retail still buying the top of every rally. How do you know when they start to buy back? price starts to get boring, no volatility, tight bbands.
With all that they sold during the run up, do you think they had time to buy back? no! there is no volume! volume is actually dying. You think its retail that is going to bring btc to next ath? retail is broke, retail bought the top and is triyng to increase his btc stash by trading but losing quickly all of it. the smartest are hodling in cold storage but the smartest are always the fewest
I dont know much about the asian funds, but they may just be worse (tron is complete bs and was hyped like crazy; neo is a shitcoin that was scam rebranded after huge period of accumulation super cheap)
but anyway its quite simple, you dont even need to know the price of the next bottom, you just buy when bbands are tight on the weekly and price is flat and boring and nothing is happening