关于气候变化的科学共识
參考文獻

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↑  John Cook;  et al. . Environmental Research Letters. April 2016, 11 (4): 048002. Bibcode:2016ERL....11d8002C. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002 .
↑  Benestad, Rasmus E.; Nuccitelli, Dana; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Hayhoe, Katharine; Hygen, Hans Olav; van Dorland, Rob; Cook, John. . Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 2016-11-01, 126 (3): 699–703. Bibcode:2016ThApC.126..699B. ISSN 1434-4483. doi:10.1007/s00704-015-1597-5  （英语）.
↑  "Total radiative forcing is positive and has led to an uptake of energy by the climate system.  The largest contribution to total radiative forcing is caused by the increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 since 1750." and "From 1750 to 2011, CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production have released 375 [345 to 405] GtC to the atmosphere, while deforestation and other land-use change are estimated to have released 180 [100 to 260] GtC." In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （页面存档备份，存于） [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
↑  IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers （页面存档备份，存于）. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （页面存档备份，存于） [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. "Extremely likely" is defined as a 95–100% likelihood on p 2.
↑   (PDF). 2005  [2014-04-20]. （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2013-09-09）. It is likely that most of the warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities (IPCC 2001). This warming has already led to changes in the Earth's climate.
↑  Julie Brigham-Grette. . Eos. September 2006, 87 (36): 364. Bibcode:2006EOSTr..87..364B. doi:10.1029/2006EO360008 . The AAPG stands alone among scientific societies in its denial of human-induced effects on global warming.
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↑  Cook, John; Oreskes, Naomi; Doran, Peter T.; Anderegg, William R. L.; Verheggen, Bart; Maibach, Ed W.; Carlton, J. Stuart; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Skuce, Andrew G.; Green, Sarah A.; Nuccitelli, Dana; Jacobs, Peter; Richardson, Mark; Winkler, Bärbel; Painting, Rob; Rice, Ken. . Environmental Research Letters. 2016, 11 (4): 048002. Bibcode:2016ERL....11d8002C. ISSN 1748-9326. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002  （英语）.
↑  Cook, John; Nuccitelli, Dana; Green, Sarah A.; Richardson, Mark; Winkler, Bärbel; Painting, Rob; Way, Robert; Jacobs, Peter; Skuce, Andrew. . Environ. Res. Lett. (IOP Publishing Ltd.). 2013-05-15, 8 (2): 024024. Bibcode:2013ERL.....8b4024C. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024 .
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1 2  Wuebbles, D.J.; Fahey, D.W.; Hibbard, K.A.; Deangelo, B.; Doherty, S.; Hayhoe, K.; Horton, R.; Kossin, J.P.; Taylor, P.C.; Waple, A.M.; Yohe, C.P. . globalchange.gov (U.S. Global Change Research Program). 2018-11-23: 1–470. doi:10.7930/J0DJ5CTG . （原始内容存档于2019-06-14）.
↑  . Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet (National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)).   [2018-08-18]. （原始内容存档于2019-06-17）. Multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals1 show that 97 percent or more of actively publishing climate scientists agree: Climate-warming trends over the past century are extremely likely due to human activities. In addition, most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position.
↑  "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level." IPCC, Synthesis Report 的存檔，存档日期2018-11-02., Section 1.1: Observations of climate change 的存檔，存档日期2018-08-04., in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007.
↑  IPCC,  (PDF), ,   [2023-11-13], （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2017-01-11）, "It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century" (page 17) and "In this Summary for Policymakers, the following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result: ... extremely likely: 95–100%" (page 2). , in IPCC AR5 WG1 2013.
↑  IPCC, Synthesis Report 的存檔，存档日期2018-11-02., Section 2.4: Attribution of climate change 的存檔，存档日期2018-11-03., in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007."It is likely that increases in GHG concentrations alone would have caused more warming than observed because volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols have offset some warming that would otherwise have taken place."
↑  [Notes-SciPanel] America's Climate Choices: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change; National Research Council. . Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. 2010. ISBN 978-0-309-14588-6. （原始内容存档于2014-05-29）. (p1) there is a strong, credible body of evidence, based on multiple lines of research, documenting that climate is changing and that these changes are in large part caused by human activities. While much remains to be learned, the core phenomenon, scientific questions, and hypotheses have been examined thoroughly and have stood firm in the face of serious scientific debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations. * * * (p. 21–22) Some scientific conclusions or theories have been so thoroughly examined and tested, and supported by so many independent observations and results, that their likelihood of subsequently being found to be wrong is vanishingly small. Such conclusions and theories are then regarded as settled facts. This is the case for the conclusions that the Earth system is warming and that much of this warming is very likely due to human activities.
1 2  Oreskes, Naomi. . DiMento, Joseph F. C.; Doughman, Pamela M.  (编). . MIT Press. 2007: 65–66  [2015-07-29]. ISBN 978-0-262-54193-0. （原始内容存档于2023-10-17）.
1 2 3  IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report （页面存档备份，存于）. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R. K. Pachauri and L. A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp.
↑  IPCC ( 2013-11-11): B. Observed Changes in the Climate System, in: Summary for Policymakers (finalized version) 的存檔，存档日期2017-03-09., in: IPCC AR5 WG1 2013，第2頁
↑  IPCC ( 2013-11-11): B.5 Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles, in: Summary for Policymakers (finalized version) 的存檔，存档日期2017-03-09., in: IPCC AR5 WG1 2013，第9頁
1 2  IPCC (2013-11-11): D. Understanding the Climate System and its Recent Changes, in: Summary for Policymakers (finalized version) 的存檔，存档日期2017-03-09., in: IPCC AR5 WG1 2013，第13頁
↑  IPCC ( 2013-11-11): Footnote 2, in: Summary for Policymakers (finalized version) 的存檔，存档日期2017-03-09., in: IPCC AR5 WG1 2013，第2頁
1 2  Summary for Policymakers, p.14 (archived 2014-06-25), in IPCC AR5 WG2 A 2014
↑  Summary for Policymakers, p.23 (archived 2014-06-25), in IPCC AR5 WG2 A 2014
↑  SPM.3 Trends in stocks and flows of greenhouse gases and their drivers, in: Summary for Policymakers 的存檔，存档日期2020-01-28., p.8 (archived 2014-07-02), in IPCC AR5 WG3 2014
↑  Victor, D., et al., Executive summary, in: Chapter 1: Introductory Chapter, p.4 (archived 2014-07-03), in IPCC AR5 WG3 2014
↑  SPM.4.1 Long‐term mitigation pathways, in: Summary for Policymakers （页面存档备份，存于）, p.15 (archived 2014-07-02), in IPCC AR5 WG3 2014
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1 2  Summary （页面存档备份，存于）, in US NRC 2001，第4頁
1 2 3  Julie Brigham-Grette;  et al. . Eos. September 2006, 87 (36): 364. Bibcode:2006EOSTr..87..364B. doi:10.1029/2006EO360008 . The AAPG stands alone among scientific societies in its denial of human-induced effects on global warming.
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1 2  Oreskes 2007，第68頁
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↑  Rosenthal, Elisabeth; Revkin, Andrew C. . The New York Times. 3 February 2007  [2010-08-28]. （原始内容存档于2023-04-14）. the leading international network of climate scientists has concluded for the first time that global warming is 'unequivocal' and that human activity is the main driver, 'very likely' causing most of the rise in temperatures since 1950
↑  Stevens, William K. . The New York Times. 2007-02-06  [28 August 2010]. （原始内容存档于2023-06-28）. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said the likelihood was 90 percent to 99 percent that emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, spewed from tailpipes and smokestacks, were the dominant cause of the observed warming of the last 50 years. In the panel's parlance, this level of certainty is labeled "very likely." Only rarely does scientific odds-making provide a more definite answer than that, at least in this branch of science, and it describes the endpoint, so far, of a progression.
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1 2 3 The literature has been assessed by the IPCC, e.g., see:
Adger, W.N.;  et al, ,   [2013-05-21], （原始内容存档于2018-11-03） , in IPCC AR4 WG2 2007
Barker, T.;  et al, ,   [2013-05-21], （原始内容存档于2018-11-02） , in IPCC AR4 WG3 2007
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↑  Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium for Sciences the Arts; Royal Society of Canada; German Academy of Natural Scientists Leopoldina; Indian National Science Academy; Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei (Italy); Academy Council of the Royal Society of New Zealand; Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences; Royal Society (UK). . Science. 18 May 2001, 292 (5520): 1261. PMID 11360966. S2CID 129309907. doi:10.1126/science.292.5520.1261.
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↑  Joint science academies' statement: Global response to climate change （页面存档备份，存于）, 2005
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↑   (PDF). Polish Academy of Sciences.   [2009-06-16]. （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2016-05-03） （波兰语）.  Note: As of 16 June 2009, PAS has not issued this statement in English, all citations have been translated from Polish.
1 2  AAAS Board Statement on Climate Change （页面存档备份，存于） www.aaas.org December 2006
↑   (PDF), 2008  [2015-07-29], （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2013-05-11）  "Global climate change is real and measurable. Since the start of the 20th century, the global mean surface temperature of the Earth has increased by more than 0.7°C and the rate of warming has been largest in the last 30 years.  Key vulnerabilities arising from climate change include water resources, food supply, health, coastal settlements, biodiversity and some key ecosystems such as coral reefs and alpine regions. As the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases increases, impacts become more severe and widespread. To reduce the global net economic, environmental and social losses in the face of these impacts, the policy objective must remain squarely focused on returning greenhouse gas concentrations to near pre-industrial levels through the reduction of emissions.  The spatial and temporal fingerprint of warming can be traced to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, which are a direct result of burning fossil fuels, broad-scale deforestation and other human activity."
1 2  Committee on the Science of Climate Change, Division on Earth and Life Studies, National Research Council. . Washington DC: National Academy Press. 2001. ISBN 0-309-07574-2. （原始内容存档于2001-06-28）.
↑  Wratt, David; Renwick, James. . The Royal Society of New Zealand. 2008-07-10  [2010-01-20]. （原始内容存档于2010-05-22）.
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↑  . 2007  [2015-05-22]. （原始内容存档于2017-06-09）. A consensus, based on current evidence, now exists within the global scientific community that human activities are the main source of climate change and that the burning of fossil fuels is largely responsible for driving this change ... Although we recognize that this nexus poses daunting challenges for the developed world, we firmly believe that these challenges are even more daunting for the most impoverished, science-poor regions of the developing world, especially in Africa.
↑   (PDF).   [2015-07-29]. （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2016-03-04）.
↑  : 7–10, 2007  [2015-07-29], （原始内容存档于2009-07-30）  "There is now convincing evidence that since the industrial revolution, human activities, resulting in increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases have become a major agent of climate change. These greenhouse gases affect the global climate by retaining heat in the troposphere, thus raising the average temperature of the planet and altering global atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns.  While on-going national and international actions to curtail and reduce greenhouse gas emissions are essential, the levels of greenhouse gases currently in the atmosphere, and their impact, are likely to persist for several decades. On-going and increased efforts to mitigate climate change through reduction in greenhouse gases are therefore crucial."
↑  Revkin, Andrew C. . The New York Times. 2007-10-23  [2023-11-13]. （原始内容存档于2023-04-08） –NYTimes.com.
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↑  ,   [2015-07-29], （原始内容存档于2012-02-24）  "Careful and comprehensive scientific assessments have clearly demonstrated that the Earth's climate system is changing rapidly in response to growing atmospheric burdens of greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosol particles (IPCC, 2007). There is very little room for doubt that observed climate trends are due to human activities. The threats are serious and action is urgently needed to mitigate the risks of climate change.  The reality of global warming, its current serious and potentially disastrous impacts on Earth system properties, and the key role emissions from human activities play in driving these phenomena have been recognized by earlier versions of this ACS policy statement (ACS, 2004), by other major scientific societies, including the American Geophysical Union (AGU, 2003), the American Meteorological Society (AMS, 2007) and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS, 2007), and by the U. S. National Academies and ten other leading national academies of science (NA, 2005)."
↑  , 2003  [2015-07-29], （原始内容存档于2021-01-25）  "The Governing Board of the American Institute of Physics has endorsed a position statement on climate change adopted by the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Council in December 2003."
↑  , November 2007  [2015-07-29], （原始内容存档于2023-09-04）  "Emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are changing the atmosphere in ways that affect the Earth's climate. Greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide as well as methane, nitrous oxide and other gases. They are emitted from fossil fuel combustion and a range of industrial and agricultural processes.  The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth's physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now.  Because the complexity of the climate makes accurate prediction difficult, the APS urges an enhanced effort to understand the effects of human activity on the Earth's climate, and to provide the technological options for meeting the climate challenge in the near and longer terms. The APS also urges governments, universities, national laboratories and its membership to support policies and actions that will reduce the emission of greenhouse gases.
↑   (PDF), 2005  [2015-07-29], （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2016-03-03）  "Policy: The AIP supports a reduction of the green house gas emissions that are leading to increased global temperatures, and encourages research that works towards this goal.  Reason: Research in Australia and overseas shows that an increase in global temperature will adversely affect the Earth's climate patterns. The melting of the polar ice caps, combined with thermal expansion, will lead to rises in sea levels that may impact adversely on our coastal cities. The impact of these changes on biodiversity will fundamentally change the ecology of Earth."
↑   (PDF), 2007  [2023-11-13], （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2016-04-17）  "The emission of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, among which carbon dioxide is the main contributor, has amplified the natural greenhouse effect and led to global warming. The main contribution stems from burning fossil fuels. A further increase will have decisive effects on life on earth. An energy cycle with the lowest possible CO2 emission is called for wherever possible to combat climate change."
↑  Ledley, Tamara S.; Sundquist, Eric T.; Schwartz, Stephen E.; Hall, Dorothy K.; Fellows, Jack D.; Killeen, Timothy L. . EOS. 1999-09-28, 80 (39): 453–454, 457–458. Bibcode:1999EOSTr..80Q.453L. doi:10.1029/99EO00325 . There is no known geologic precedent for large increases of atmospheric CO2 without simultaneous changes in other components of the carbon cycle and climate system. ... Changes in the climate system that are confidently predicted in response to increases in greenhouse gases include increases in mean surface air temperature, increases in global mean rates of precipitation and evaporation, rising sea level, and changes in the biosphere.
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↑  Climate Change Position Statement Working Group.  (PDF). Working Group Rep. ASA, CSSA, and SSSA. Madison, WI. 11 May 2011  [2019-01-21]. （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2023-03-20）.
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↑  Maibach, Edward. . George Mason University. March 2016: 25  [2023-11-13]. （原始内容存档于2023-10-18）.
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↑  Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Letter to Stephen Harper （页面存档备份，存于） (Updated, 2007)
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↑  Council of the American Quaternary Association. . Eos. 2006, 87 (36): 364. Bibcode:2006EOSTr..87..364B. doi:10.1029/2006EO360008 .
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↑    "There is widespread scientific agreement that the world's climate is changing and that the weight of evidence demonstrates that anthropogenic factors have and will continue to contribute significantly to global warming and climate change. It is anticipated that continuing changes to the climate will have serious negative impacts on public, animal and ecosystem health due to extreme weather events, changing disease transmission dynamics, emerging and re-emerging diseases, and alterations to habitat and ecological systems that are essential to wildlife conservation. Furthermore, there is increasing recognition of the inter-relationships of human, domestic animal, wildlife, and ecosystem health as illustrated by the fact the majority of recent emerging diseases have a wildlife origin."
↑  ,   [2015-07-29], （原始内容存档于2020-10-26）  "Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver."
↑  , Ars Technica, 2009-10-22  [2023-11-13], （原始内容存档于2011-11-12）
↑   (PDF), October 2009  [2015-07-29], （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2017-02-15）
↑   (PDF), American Society For Microbiology, May 2006  [2015-07-29], （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2016-04-15）  They recommended "reducing net anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the atmosphere" and "minimizing anthropogenic disturbances of" atmospheric gases.  Carbon dioxide concentrations were relatively stable for the past 10,000 years but then began to increase rapidly about 150 years ago...as a result of fossil fuel consumption and land use change.  Of course, changes in atmospheric composition are but one component of global change, which also includes disturbances in the physical and chemical conditions of the oceans and land surface. Although global change has been a natural process throughout Earth's history, humans are responsible for substantially accelerating present-day changes. These changes may adversely affect human health and the biosphere on which we depend.  Outbreaks of a number of diseases, including Lyme disease, hantavirus infections, dengue fever, bubonic plague, and cholera, have been linked to climate change."
↑   (PDF), 2006, （原始内容 (PDF)存档于22 March 2006）  Official communique regarding the Great Barrier Reef and the "world-wide decline in coral reefs through processes such as overfishing, runoff of nutrients from the land, coral bleaching, global climate change, ocean acidification, pollution", etc.:  There is almost total consensus among experts that the earth's climate is changing as a result of the build-up of greenhouse gases. The IPCC (involving over 3,000 of the world's experts) has come out with clear conclusions as to the reality of this phenomenon. One does not have to look further than the collective academy of scientists worldwide to see the string (of) statements on this worrying change to the earth's atmosphere.  There is broad scientific consensus that coral reefs are heavily affected by the activities of man and there are significant global influences that can make reefs more vulnerable such as global warming. ... It is highly likely that coral bleaching has been exacerbated by global warming."
↑  ,   [2015-07-29], （原始内容存档于2007-10-10）   "there is scientific agreement that the rapid global warming that has occurred in recent years is mostly anthropogenic, ie due to human activity."  As a consequence of global warming, they warn that a "rise in sea levels due to melting of ice caps is expected to occur. Rises in temperature will have complex and frequently localised effects on weather, but an overall increase in extreme weather conditions and changes in precipitation patterns are probable, resulting in flooding and drought. The spread of tropical diseases is also expected."   Subsequently, the Institute of Biology advocates policies to reduce "greenhouse gas emissions, as we feel that the consequences of climate change are likely to be severe."
↑   (PDF), 2008  [2009-01-29], （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2012-02-22）  "Forests are shaped by climate. ... Changes in temperature and precipitation regimes therefore have the potential to dramatically affect forests nationwide. There is growing evidence that our climate is changing. The changes in temperature have been associated with increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and other GHGs in the atmosphere."
↑   (PDF), 2008  [2009 -01-29], （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2012-02-22）  请检查|access-date=中的日期值 (帮助) "Forests play a significant role in offsetting CO2 emissions, the primary anthropogenic GHG."
↑   (PDF), （原始内容 (PDF)存档于27 November 2008）  "Scientists throughout the world have concluded that climate research conducted in the past two decades definitively shows that rapid worldwide climate change occurred in the 20th century, and will likely continue to occur for decades to come. Although climates have varied dramatically since the Earth was formed, few scientists question the role of humans in exacerbating recent climate change through the emission of greenhouse gases. The critical issue is no longer "if" climate change is occurring, but rather how to address its effects on wildlife and wildlife habitats."  The statement goes on to assert that "evidence is accumulating that wildlife and wildlife habitats have been and will continue to be significantly affected by ongoing large-scale rapid climate change."  The statement concludes with a call for "reduction in anthropogenic (human-caused) sources of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions contributing to global climate change and the conservation of CO2- consuming photosynthesizers (i.e., plants)."