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1 2 3  Moore, Don A.; Healy, Paul J. (2008). "The trouble with overconfidence". Psychological Review. 115 (2): 502–517. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.115.2.502. PMID 18426301. คลังข้อมูลเก่าเก็บจากแหล่งเดิมเมื่อ 2014-11-06. สืบค้นเมื่อ 2018-05-27.
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↑  Lichtenstein, Sarah; Fischhoff, Baruch; Phillips, Lawrence D. (1982). "Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980".  ใน Kahneman, Daniel; Slovic, Paul; Tversky, Amos (บ.ก.). Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge University Press. pp. 306–334. ISBN 978-0-521-28414-1.
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↑  McGraw, A. Peter; Mellers, Barbara A.; Ritov, Ilana (2004). "The affective costs of overconfidence" (PDF). Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. 17 (4): 281–295. doi:10.1002/bdm.472. คลังข้อมูลเก่าเก็บจากแหล่งเดิม (PDF)เมื่อ 2016-03-04. สืบค้นเมื่อ 2018-05-27. {{cite journal}}: ระบุ |accessdate= และ |access-date= มากกว่าหนึ่งรายการ (help); ระบุ |archivedate= และ |archive-date= มากกว่าหนึ่งรายการ (help); ระบุ |archiveurl= และ |archive-url= มากกว่าหนึ่งรายการ (help)
↑  
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↑  
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↑  Dunning, David (2005). Self-Insight: Roadblocks and Detours on the Path to Knowing Thyself. Psychology Press. ISBN 978-1841690742.
↑  Kruger, Justin (1999). "Lake Wobegon be gone! The "below-average effect" and the egocentric nature of comparative ability judgments". Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 77 (2): 221–232. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.77.2.221. PMID 10474208.
↑  Weinstein, Neil D. (1980). "Unrealistic optimism about future life events". Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 39 (5): 806–820. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.39.5.806.
↑  
Chambers, John R.; Windschitl, Paul D. (2004). "Biases in Social Comparative Judgments: The Role of Nonmotivated Factors in Above-Average and Comparative-Optimism Effects". Psychological Bulletin. 130 (5): 813–838. doi:10.1037/0033-2909.130.5.813. PMID 15367082.
↑  
Chambers, John R.; Windschitl, Paul D.; Suls, Jerry (2003). "Egocentrism, Event Frequency, and Comparative Optimism: When what Happens Frequently is "More Likely to Happen to Me"". Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin. 29 (11): 1343–1356. doi:10.1177/0146167203256870. PMID 15189574.
↑  
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↑  Taylor, Shelley E.; Brown, Jonathon D. (1988). "Illusion and well-being: A social psychological perspective on mental health". Psychological Bulletin. 103 (2): 193–210. doi:10.1037/0033-2909.103.2.193. PMID 3283814.
↑  Kahneman, Daniel (2011-10-19). "Don't Blink! The Hazards of Confidence". New York Times. Adapted from: Kahneman, Daniel (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux. ISBN 978-1-4299-6935-2.
↑  Plous, Scott (1993). The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making. McGraw-Hill Education. ISBN 978-0-07-050477-6.
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↑  Johnson, Dominic D. P. (2004). Overconfidence and War: The Havoc and Glory of Positive Illusions. Harvard University Press. ISBN 978-0-674-01576-0.
↑  Aumann, Robert J. (1976). "Agreeing to Disagree". The Annals of Statistics. 4 (6): 1236–1239. doi:10.1214/aos/1176343654.
↑  Daniel, Kent; Hirshleifer, David; Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar (1998). "Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions". The Journal of Finance. 53 (6): 1839–1885. doi:10.1111/0022-1082.00077.
1 2  Oskamp, Stuart (1965). "Overconfidence in case-study judgments" (PDF). Journal of Consulting Psychology. 29 (3): 261–265. doi:10.1037/h0022125. Reprinted in
Kahneman, Daniel; Slovic, Paul; Tversky, Amos, บ.ก. (1982). Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge University Press. pp. 287–293. ISBN 978-0-521-28414-1.
↑  Radzevick, J. R.; Moore, D. A. (2009). "Competing To Be Certain (But Wrong) : Social Pressure and Overprecision in Judgment" (PDF). Academy of Management Proceedings. 2009 (1): 1–6. doi:10.5465/AMBPP.2009.44246308. คลังข้อมูลเก่าเก็บจากแหล่งเดิม (PDF)เมื่อ 2016-07-17. สืบค้นเมื่อ 2018-05-27.
↑  Fowler, James H.; Johnson, Dominic D. P. (2011-01-07). "On Overconfidence". Seed Magazine. ISSN 1499-0679. คลังข้อมูลเก่าเก็บจากแหล่งเดิมเมื่อ 2011-08-12. สืบค้นเมื่อ 2018-05-27. {{cite journal}}: ระบุ |accessdate= และ |access-date= มากกว่าหนึ่งรายการ (help); ระบุ |archivedate= และ |archive-date= มากกว่าหนึ่งรายการ (help); ระบุ |archiveurl= และ |archive-url= มากกว่าหนึ่งรายการ (help)
1 2  Judge, Timothy A.; Locke, Edwin A.; Durham, Cathy C. (1997). "The dispositional causes of job satisfaction: A core evaluations approach". Research in Organizational Behavior. Vol. 19. pp. 151–188. ISBN 978-0762301799.