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"Chain Gangs and Passed Bucks: Predicting Alliance Patterns in Multipolarity," (with Jack Snyder), International Organization, (Spring 1990).
"Correspondence: Mobilization and Inadvertence in the July Crisis," International Security, Vol.16, No.1 (1991).
"Threats, Assurances, and the Last Chance for Peace: The Lessons of Mao's Korean War Telegrams," International Security, Vol.17, No.1 (1992).
"A Lost Chance for What? Rethinking the Origins of US-PRC Confrontation," The Journal of American-East Asian Relations, Vol.4, No.3 (1995).
"Chinese Realpolitik," Foreign Affairs, (September/October 1996).
"Perceptions and Alliances in Europe, 1865-1940," International Organization, (Winter 1996/97).
"Progressive Research About Degenerate Alliances," (with Jack Snyder), American Political Science Review, (Winter 1997/98).
"China, the U.S.-Japan Alliance and the Security Dilemma in East Asia," International Security, Vol.23, No.4 (1999).
"Theater Missile Defense and Taiwan's Security," Orbis, Vol.44, No.1 (2000).
"Correspondence: Spiral, Security, and Stability in East Asia," International Security, Vol.24, No.4 (2000).
"Clarity on Taiwan: Correcting Misperceptions on Both Sides of the Strait," Washington Post OpEd, (March 20, 2000).
"China: Getting the Questions Right," (with Richard K. Betts) The National Interest, (Winter 2000/2001).
"Posing Problems Without Catching Up: China's Rise and Challenges for U.S. Security Policy," International Security, Vol.25, No.4 (2001).
"Correspondence: Power and Resolve in U.S. China Policy," International Security, Vol.26, No.2 (2001).
"Tracking China's Security Relations: Causes for Optimism and Pessimism," China Leadership Monitor, No.1 (2002)
"Terrorism, Taiwan Elections, and Tattered Treaties: PRC Security Politics From September 11 Through Year's End," China Leadership Monitor, No.2 (2002).
"Bejing's Views of Taiwan and the United States in Early 2002: The Renaissance of Pessimism," China Leadership Monitor, No.3 (2002).
"The Contemporary Security Dilemma: Deterring a Taiwan Conflict," The Washington Quarterly, Vol.25, No.4 (2002).
"A Smooth Ride Despite Many Potholes: The Road to Crawford," China Leadership Monitor, No.4(2002).
"The Party Transition: Will It Bring a New Maturity in Chinese Security Policy?," China Leadership Monitor, No.5 (2003).
"Optimistic Trends and Near-term Challenges: Sino-American Security Relations in Early 2003," China Leadership Monitor, No.6 (2003).
"PRC Foreign Relations After the National People's Congress: Iraq, North Korea, SARS, and Taiwan," China Leadership Monitor, No.7 (2003).
"PRC Security Relations with the United States: Why Things are Going so Well," China Leadership Monitor, No.8 (2003).
"Taiwan's Legislative Yuan Elections and Cross-Strait Security Relations: Reduced Tensions and Remaining Challenges," China Leadership Monitor, No.13 (2005).
"Worse than a Monolith: Disorganization and Rivalry within Asian Communist Alliances and U.S. Containment Challenges, 1949-69," Asian Security. Vol.1, No.1 (2005).
"Have Old Problems Trumped New Thinking: China's Relations with Taiwan, Japan and North Korea," China Leadership Monitor, No.14 (2005).
"Looking Beyond the Nuclear Bluster: Recent Progress and Remaining Problems in PRC Security Policy," China Leadership Monitor, No.15 (2005).
"Will China Become a ‘Responsible Stakeholder’?: the Six-Party Talks, Taiwan Arms Sales, and Sino-Japanese Relations," China Leadership Monitor, No.16 (2005).
"Fostering Stability or Creating a Monster?: the Rise of China and U.S. Policy toward East Asia," International Security, Vol.31, No.1 (2006).