مفاتيح البيت الأبيض
مراجع

↑  "USGS Earthquake Hazards Program-Home". web.archive.org. 12 أبريل 2009. مؤرشف من الأصل في 2009-04-12. اطلع عليه بتاريخ 2024-10-30.{{استشهاد ويب}}:  صيانة الاستشهاد: BOT: original URL status unknown (link)
↑  Beyer, Elizabeth. "Meet Allan Lichtman, the professor who predicted the president (and the last 9)". USA TODAY (بالإنجليزية الأمريكية). Archived from the original on 2024-05-09. Retrieved 2024-08-20.
↑  Smith, David (26 Apr 2024). "'A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose': can Allan Lichtman predict the 2024 election?". The Guardian (بالإنجليزية البريطانية). ISSN:0261-3077. Retrieved 2024-08-25.
↑  Schechtman, Jeff (17 May 2024). "An Election Prophecy: How 13 Keys Unlock Presidential Election Outcomes". WhoWhatWhy (بالإنجليزية الأمريكية). Retrieved 2024-08-26.
↑  Schuessler, Jennifer (9 Nov 2016). "Yes, He Thought Trump Would Win. No, He Didn't Use Hard Data". The New York Times (بالإنجليزية الأمريكية). ISSN:0362-4331. Retrieved 2023-09-25.
↑  Stevenson, Peter W. (25 Nov 2021). "Professor who predicted 30 years of presidential elections correctly called a Trump win in September". Washington Post (بالإنجليزية الأمريكية). ISSN:0190-8286. Archived from the original on 2016-11-01. Retrieved 2023-09-25.
1 2 3  Allan J. Lichtman (أكتوبر 2016). "The Keys to the White House" (PDF). Social Education. ج. 80 ع. 5: 256–258. As a national system, the Keys predict the popular vote, not the state-by-state tally of Electoral College votes.
1 2 3  Edelman, Gilad (16 Oct 2024). "The Man Who's Sure That Harris Will Win". The Atlantic (بالإنجليزية). Archived from the original on 2024-10-23. Retrieved 2024-10-16.
↑  Lichtman، Allan J. (أكتوبر 2020). "The Keys to the White House: Final Prediction for the 2020 Election". Social Education. ج. 84 ع. 5: 264–266.
↑  Lichtman, Allan J. (15 Jul 2020). "The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2020". Harvard Data Science Review (بالإنجليزية). 2 (4). DOI:10.1162/99608f92.baaa8f68. ISSN:2644-2353.
↑  Housman, Patty (28 Oct 2020). "Does Allan Lichtman stand by his "13 Keys" Prediction of a Joe Biden Win?". American University (بالإنجليزية). Retrieved 2024-08-25.
↑  "The 13 Keys to the White House". American University (بالإنجليزية). 4 May 2016. Archived from the original on 2024-09-05. Retrieved 2024-08-25.
↑  Moscato & De Vries (2019), p. 53
↑  Kashina (2014), Vladimir Keilis-Borok: A Biography, p. 105
↑  Kashina (2014), Vladimir Keilis-Borok: A Biography, p. 107
1 2  A. J. Lichtman؛ V. I. Keilis-Borok (نوفمبر 1981). "Pattern recognition applied to presidential elections in the United States, 1860-1980: Role of integral social, economic, and political traits". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. ج. 78 ع. 11: 7230–7234. Bibcode:1981PNAS...78.7230L. DOI:10.1073/pnas.78.11.7230. PMC:349231. PMID:16593125.
↑  BREAKING DOWN NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY | Lichtman Live #32 (بالإنجليزية), Retrieved 2024-03-24
↑  Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 2, p. 14
1 2 3 4 5 6  Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 2
↑  Vedantam، Shankar (9 نوفمبر 2012). "What Earthquakes Can Teach Us About Elections". National Public Radio. اطلع عليه بتاريخ 2024-10-02.
↑  Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 2, p. 26
↑  Lichtman, Allan (1 Mar 2024). SCOTUS WILL DECIDE TRUMP'S IMMUNITY! | Lichtman Live #37 (Video) (بالإنجليزية). Retrieved 2024-08-27 – via يوتيوب.
↑  "Harding Nominated for President on the Tenth Ballot at Chicago; Coolidge Chosen for Vice President". archive.nytimes.com. اطلع عليه بتاريخ 2024-03-16.
↑  Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections (compare national data by year)
1 2 3
1 2  Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 2, p. 31
↑  Stevenson, Peter W. (25 Nov 2021). "Trump is headed for a win, says professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes correctly". Washington Post (بالإنجليزية الأمريكية). ISSN:0190-8286. Archived from the original on 2024-10-21. Retrieved 2023-09-23. In his highest polling, Gary Johnson is at about 12 to 14 percent. My rule is that you cut it in half. That would mean that he gets six to seven, and that would be the sixth and final key against the Democrats.
↑  Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 9
↑  Burns, Tobias (30 Jul 2022). "Is there a recession? Only the National Bureau of Economic Research gets to decide". The Hill (بالإنجليزية الأمريكية). Retrieved 2024-09-28.
1 2  Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 2, p. 38
↑  Pitofsky, Marina. "Historian who predicted 9 of the last 10 elections says 2024 pick set off 'avalanche'". USA TODAY (بالإنجليزية الأمريكية). Archived from the original on 2024-09-22. Retrieved 2024-09-28.
↑  Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 2, p. 41
↑  Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 12: "Trump is a consummate showman who commands media attention but appeals only to a narrow slice of the electorate rather than achieving broad appeal like Ronald Reagan."
↑  Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 2, p. 46
↑  Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 10: "Although many Americans admired his service during the Vietnam War, including his imprisonment by the North Vietnamese for five and a half years, he had not led the nation through war like Ulysses S. Grant or Dwight D. Eisenhower."
↑  من الممكن أن تكون المفاتيح مطابقة للرئيس المنتخب ولكن ليس للفائز بالتصويت الشعبي في عام 1960، عندما كان هناك تسعة مفاتيح خاطئة ضد الجمهوريين الحاليين، مما يشير إلى هزيمة المرشح الجمهوري نائب الرئيس ريتشارد نيكسون. وبسبب التناقضات في كيفية إحصاء الناخبين غير الملتزمين في ألاباما، أفادت مجلة "Congressional Quarterly" ومصادر أخرى أن المرشح الديمقراطي جون كينيدي خسر التصويت الشعبي، لكنه فاز بالهيئة الانتخابية وبالتالي انتُخب رئيسًا.
1 2  Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President
↑  Allan Lichtman (10 يوليو 2024). Professor SCHOOLS Cenk Uygur on Elections!. اطلع عليه بتاريخ 2024-07-11 – عبر YouTube.
1 2  Allan J. Lichtman (2000). "ELECTION 2000: The Keys Point to Gore". Social Education. ج. 64 ع. 6: 376–377. مؤرشف من الأصل في 2020-10-07. اطلع عليه بتاريخ 2024-11-03.
 "Thus, on balance, barring a most improbable turn of events, the American people will ratify the record of the current Democratic administration this year and elect Al Gore president of the United States."
↑  Joseph Jaffe, Allan Lichtman (18 نوفمبر 2020). The Keys to the White House - Distinguished Professor, Allan Lichtman (YouTube streaming video).  وقع ذلك في 32m03s.
↑  Lichtman (1990), The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency, p. 6: "When five or fewer keys are false, the incumbent party wins the popular vote"
↑  Allan J. Lichtman (1999). "The Keys to Election 2000". Social Education. ج. 63 ع. 7: 422.
↑  Allan J. Lichtman (2001). "Supplemental Report on the Racial Impact of the Rejection of Ballots Cast in Florida’s 2000 Presidential Election and in Response to the Statement of the Dissenting Commissioners and Report by Dr. John Lott Submitted to the United States Senate Committee on Rules in July 2001" in Voting Irregularities in Florida during the 2000 Presidential Election (US Commission of Civil Rights, 2001)
↑  Lichtman (2024). Predicting the Next President (2024 edition). Chapter 12:
"In 2016, I made the first modification of the keys system since its inception in 1981. I did not change the keys themselves or the decision rule that any six or more negative keys predict the White House party’s defeat. Instead, in my final forecast for 2016, I predicted the winner of the presidency, e.g., the Electoral College, rather than the popular vote winner. In an interview with the Washington Post on September 23, 2016, I predicted that Donald Trump would win the presidency in November, revising my earlier forecast of a likely Democratic win."
↑  Allan J. Lichtman (2016). Predicting the Next President: the Keys to the White House. Lanham, Maryland: Rowman & Littlefield. ص. 2. ISBN:978-1-4422-6920-0. "When five or fewer keys are false, the incumbent party wins the popular vote; when six or more are false, the challenging party prevails."
↑  Allan Lichtman (2 مايو 2024). Has the campus unrest ended??? | Lichtman Live #46. اطلع عليه بتاريخ 2024-10-28 – عبر YouTube.
↑  Allan Lichtman (18 أبريل 2024). Ukraine Aid... What's at Stake?!?! | Lichtman Live #44. اطلع عليه بتاريخ 2024-10-28 – عبر YouTube.
↑  He Predicted a Trump Win in 2016. What's His Forecast For 2020? (streaming video). New York Times. 5 أغسطس 2020. مؤرشف من الأصل في 2021-12-21.
↑  Lichtman (2012)
↑  Basu، Rebecca (26 سبتمبر 2016). "Historian's Prediction: Donald J. Trump to Win 2016 Election". الجامعة الأميركية. مؤرشف من الأصل في 2017-06-19.
↑  "1990-91 RECESSION IS OFFICIALLY OVER, PANEL DECLARES". Washington Post (بالإنجليزية الأمريكية). 27 Feb 2024. ISSN:0190-8286. Retrieved 2024-09-27.
1 2  Lichtman, Allan J. (25 Sep 2016). "Assuming History's a Good Guide, Trump's Going to Win". History News Network (بالإنجليزية). Retrieved 2024-08-20.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7  McFall, Marni Rose (13 Aug 2024). "How reliable is the 'Nostradamus' of US polling?". نيوزويك (بالإنجليزية). Retrieved 2024-08-21.
↑  Raza، Nayeema؛ Knight، Kristopher (5 أغسطس 2020). "He Predicted Trump's Win in 2016. Now He's Ready to Call 2020". New York Times. اطلع عليه بتاريخ 2024-09-07.
↑  "13 Keys to the White House (2024 Update) | Lichtman Live #51". 6 يونيو 2024. اطلع عليه بتاريخ 2024-06-07.
↑  "Allan Lichtman's 2024 Presidential Prediction | Lichtman Live #72". 5 سبتمبر 2024. اطلع عليه بتاريخ 2024-09-06.
↑  ‘I was wrong’: Professor Lichtman on why his election prediction missed | CNN Politics (بالإنجليزية). 8 Nov 2024. Archived from the original on 2024-11-09. Retrieved 2024-11-09 – via www.cnn.com.
↑  Lichtman, Allan (5 Sep 2024). "Harris or Trump? The Prophet of Presidential Elections Is Ready to Call the Race". The New York Times (بالإنجليزية الأمريكية). Retrieved 2024-09-05.
↑  "Donald Trump elected as the next President of the United States". Fox News (بالإنجليزية). 6 Nov 2024.
↑  Baker, Michael. "Presidential election results 2024 | CNN Politics". CNN (بالإنجليزية).
↑  Csellar, Maralee (12 Jul 2010). "Obama Wins Re-Election in 2012 | American University Washington DC". American University (بالإنجليزية). Retrieved 2023-09-25.
↑  Fox، Lauren & Paul، Bedard. "Never-Wrong Pundit Picks Obama to Win in 2012". US News. مؤرشف من الأصل في 2018-01-19.
↑  Schuessler, Jennifer (9 Nov 2016). "Yes, He Thought Trump Would Win. No, He Didn't Use Hard Data". The New York Times (بالإنجليزية الأمريكية). ISSN:0362-4331. Retrieved 2023-09-25.
↑  Stevenson, Peter W. (25 Nov 2021). "Professor who predicted 30 years of presidential elections correctly called a Trump win in September". Washington Post (بالإنجليزية الأمريكية). ISSN:0190-8286. Archived from the original on 2016-11-01. Retrieved 2023-09-25.
↑  It is possible that Lichtman's model also corresponded with the elected president but not the popular vote winner in 1960, an election where the keys were applied retrospectively: due to discrepancies with how Alabama's unpledged electors are counted, the Congressional Quarterly and other sources report that Democratic nominee جون كينيدي lost the popular vote, but won the Electoral College and was therefore elected president.
↑  Combs, Cody (16 Aug 2023). "Will Joe Biden be re-elected in the 2024 presidential election?". The National (بالإنجليزية). Archived from the original on 2024-03-05. Retrieved 2023-09-25.
↑  Silver، Nate (5 أغسطس 2020). "He Incorrectly Predicted That Trump Would Win The Popular Vote In 2016. But, Hey, Who Cares About Details Like That?". Twitter.
↑  Due to discrepancies with how Alabama's unpledged electors are counted, Congressional Quarterly and other sources report that Nixon won the popular vote by 0.09 points, but Kennedy won the Electoral College and was therefore elected president.
↑  Silver, Nate (31 Aug 2011). "Despite Keys, Obama Is No Lock". FiveThirtyEight (بالإنجليزية الأمريكية). Archived from the original on 2022-04-10. Retrieved 2023-09-25.
↑  Silver, Nate (12 Sep 2011). "'Keys to the White House' Historian Responds". FiveThirtyEight (بالإنجليزية). Retrieved 2023-09-25.
↑  McArdle, Megan (30 Aug 2011). "How Do Obama's Re-Election Chances Stack Up to Hoover's?". The Atlantic (بالإنجليزية). Archived from the original on 2023-07-30. Retrieved 2024-01-27.