مسح صحة الأسرة في العراق
ردود الفعل والانتقادات > 400000 حالة وفاة زائدة؟

أكدت مقالة في يوليو 2008 في MedPage Today أن مسح IFHS قدّر في الواقع 400000 حالة وفاة عراقية زائدة  نتيجة للغزو، مع 151000 حالة وفاة مرتبطة بالعنف (نطاق عدم اليقين 95 ٪، 104000 إلى 223000) و 249000 من غير - أسباب عنيفة (نطاق عدم يقين غير معروف). ومع ذلك، فإن الأسئلة والأجوبة المنشورة في IFHS من قبل منظمة الصحة العالمية تنص على أنها لم تقدر عدد الوفيات الزائدة:
يناقش المقال الرئيسي NEJM بإيجاز فقط الزيادة المقاسة في معدلات الوفيات غير العنيفة من فترة ما قبل الغزو إلى فترة ما بعد الغزو:
كان إجمالي الوفيات الناجمة عن أسباب غير عنيفة أعلى بنحو 60٪ في فترة ما بعد الغزو مقارنة بفترة ما قبل الغزو. على الرغم من أن تحيز الاسترجاع قد يساهم في الزيادة، نظرًا لأن احتمالية الإبلاغ عن الوفيات قبل عام 2003 كانت أقل احتمالًا من الوفيات الحديثة، فإن هذه النتيجة تتطلب مزيدًا من التحليل.
يوضح سؤال وجواب:
«Q: What happened to mortality due to causes other than violence?

A: The non-violent mortality rate increased by about 60%, from 3.07 deaths per 1000 people per year before the invasion to 4.92 deaths per 1000 people per year in the post-invasion period. This was not further addressed in this analysis, which focused on mortality due to violent deaths. Further analysis would be needed to calculate an estimate of the number of such deaths and to assess how large the mortality increase due to non-violent causes is, after taking into account that reporting of deaths longer ago is less complete....»
صرح جون تيرمان، الذي أمر بتكليف وتوجيه تمويل دراسة لانسيت الثانية، في مقال نشر في 21 يناير 2008 على AlterNet :
«a little digging would have revealed much more: The total deaths attributable to the war, nonviolent as well as violent, was about 400,000 for that period, now 19 months ago. If the same trends continued, that total today would be more than 600,000....

Interviewers identified themselves as employees of the Ministry of Health, then under the control of Shiite cleric Moktada al Sadr. Those interviewed, therefore, would be wary of saying a brother or son or husband had been killed by violence, fearing retribution. And, indeed, there are nonviolent categories in the survey that suggest just such equivocation: 'Unintentional injuries' would equal about 40 percent of the death-by-violence toll, for example. Road accidents were ten times their pre-war totals-if someone is run off a highway by a U.S. convoy, is that a "nonviolent" death?»
قال ليس روبرتس يوم الجمعة 10 يناير 2008:
«The
article found a doubling of mortality after the invasion, we found a 2.4-fold increase. Thus, we roughly agree on the number of excess deaths. The big difference is that we found almost all the increase from violence, they found one-third of the increase from violence....
They roughly found a steady rate of violence from 2003-2006. Baghdad morgue data, Najaf burial data, and our data all show a dramatic increase over 2005 and 2006. ...
It is likely that people would be unwilling to admit violent deaths to the study workers who were government employees. ...
Finally, their data suggests one-sixth of deaths over the occupation through June 2006 were from violence. Our data suggests a majority of deaths were from violence. The morgue and graveyard data I have seen is more in keeping with our results.»
كتب جون تيرمان في (14 فبراير 2008) في محرر وناشر:
«Yet another, a much larger house-to-house survey was conducted by the Iraq Ministry of Health (MoH). This also found a sizable mortality figure—400,000 "excess deaths" (the number above the pre-war death rate), but estimated 151,000 killed by violence. The period covered was the same as the survey published in The Lancet, but was not released until January 2008.

The ORB results were almost totally ignored in the American press, and the MoH numbers, which did get one-day play, were covered incompletely. Virtually no newspaper report dug into the data tables of the Iraqi MoH report, published in the New England Journal of Medicine, for that total excess mortality figure, or to ask why the MoH report showed a flat rate for killing throughout the war when every other account shows sharp increases through 2005 and 2006. The logical explanation for this discrepancy is that people responding to interviewers from the government, and a ministry controlled by Moktada al Sadr, would not want to admit that their loved one died by violence. There were, instead, very large numbers of dead by road accidents and "unintentional injuries." The American press completely missed this.»
أكد تيموثي آر. غولدن، دكتوراه، من كلية السياسة العامة بجامعة ميريلاند في كوليدج بارك، أن مؤلفي مسح صحة الأسرة في العراق «يقرون ويحاولون تصحيح عدم الإبلاغ عن الوفيات الناجمة عن أسباب غير عنيفة، لكنهم لا يسمحون بذلك من أجل الإبلاغ الناقص الأكثر خطورة عن الوفيات المرتبطة بالعنف للقائمين على المسح التابعين للحكومة».