Since it started development in 2003, FCS has been at the center of the Army’s efforts to modernize into a lighter, more agile, and more capable combat force. The FCS concept involved replacing existing combat systems with a family of manned and unmanned vehicles and systems linked by an advanced information network. The Army anticipated that the FCS systems, along with the soldier and enabling complementary systems, would work together in a system of systems wherein the whole provided greater capability than the sum of the individual parts. The Army expected to develop this equipment in 10 years, procure it over 13 years, and field it to 15 FCS-unique brigades—about one-third of the active force at that time. The Army also had planned to spin out selected FCS technologies and systems to current Army forces throughout the system development and demonstration phase. As we have reported in 2009, the FCS program was immature and unable to meet DOD’s own standards for technology and design from the start. Although adjustments were made, such as adding time and reducing requirements, vehicle weights and software code grew, key network systems were delayed, and technologies took longer to mature than anticipated (see fig. 1). By 2009, after an investment of 6 years and an estimated $18 billion, the viability of the FCS concept was still unknown. As such, we concluded that the maturity of the development efforts was insufficient and the program could not be developed and produced within duced within existing resources. existing resources. In April 2009, the Secretary of Defense proposed a significant restructuring of the FCS program to lower risk and address more near-term combat needs. The Secretary noted significant concerns that the FCS program’s vehicle designs—where greater information awareness was expected to compensate for less armor, resulting in lower weight and higher fuel efficiency—did not adequately reflect the lessons of counterinsurgency and close-quarters combat operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. As such, the Secretary recommended accelerating fielding of ready-to-go systems and capabilities to all canceling the vehicle component of the FCS program, reevaluating the requirements, technology, and approach, and re-launching the Army’s vehicle modernization program, and addressing fee structure and other concerns with current FCS contracting arrangements. In June 2009, the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics issued an acquisition decision memorandum that canceled the FCS acquisition program, terminated manned ground vehicle development efforts, and laid out plans for follow-on Army brigade combat team modernization efforts. DOD directed the Army to transition to an Army-wide modernization plan consisting of a number of integrated acquisition programs, including one to develop ground combat vehicles. Subsequently, the Army has been defining its ground force modernization efforts per the Secretary’s decisions and the June 2009 acquisition decision memorandum. Although the details are not yet complete, the Army took several actions through the end of calendar year 2009. It stopped all development work on the FCS manned ground vehicles—including the non-line of sight cannon—in the summer of 2009 and recently terminated development of the Class IV unmanned aerial vehicle and the countermine and transport variants of the Multifunction Utility/Logistics and Equipment unmanned ground vehicle. For the time being, the Army is continuing selected development work under the existing FCS development contract, primarily residual FCS system and network development. In October 2009, the Army negotiated a modification to the existing contract that clarified the development work needed for the brigade modernization efforts. The Army is implementing DOD direction and redefining its overall modernization strategy as a result of the Secretary of Defense’s decisions to significantly restructure the FCS program. It is transitioning from the FCS long-term acquisition orientation to a shorter-term approach that biannually develops and fields new increments of capability within capability packages. It now has an approved acquisition program that will produce and field the initial increment of the FCS spinout equipment, which includes unmanned aerial and ground vehicles as well as unattended sensors and munitions, and preliminary plans for two other major defense acquisition programs to define and develop follow-on increments and develop a new GCV. The Army also plans to integrate network capabilities across the Army’s brigade structure and to develop and field upgrades to other existing ground force equipment. The first program, Increment 1, is a continuation of previous FCS- related efforts to spin out emerging capabilities and technologies to current forces. Of the Army’s post-FCS modernization initiatives, Increment 1, which includes such FCS remnants as unmanned air and ground systems, unattended ground sensors, the non-line-of-sight launch system, and a network integration kit, is the furthest along in the acquisition development cycle (see fig. 2). The network integration kit includes, among other things, the integrated computer system, an initial version of the system-of-systems common operating environment (SOSCOE), early models of the Joint Tactical Radio System, and a range extension relay. In December 2009, the Army requested and DOD approved, with a number of restrictions, the low- rate initial production of Increment 1 systems that are expected to be fielded in the fiscal year 2011-12 capability package. The Army will be continuing Increment 1 development over the next 2 years while low- rate initial production proceeds. The projected development and production cost to equip nine brigades with the Increment 1 network and systems, supported by an independent cost estimate, would be about $3.5 billion. Network Integration Kit (NIK) Provides enhanced communications and situational awareness through radios with multiple software waveforms, connections to unattended sensors, and links to existing networking capabilities. Provides force protection in an urban setting through a leave- behind, network-enabled reporting system of movement and/or activity in cleared areas. Provides independent, soldier-level aerial reconnaissance, surveillance, and target acquisition capability. For the time being, the Army is continuing selected development work— primarily that related to Increment 1, Increment 2, and network development—under the existing FCS development contract. In October 2009, the Army negotiated a modification to the existing contract, which clarified the development work needed for the brigade modernization efforts. The Army previously awarded a contract for long lead item procurement for Increment 1. A modification to that contract was recently issued to begin low-rate initial production of the Increment 1 systems. The Army has also recently released a request for proposals for the technology development phase of the proposed GCV development effort. Contractor proposals for GCV are expected to include plans and/or solutions for, among other things, survivability (hit avoidance system, armor, and vehicle layout) and mobility (propulsion and power generation and cooling). According to the request for proposals, the proposals can utilize prior Army investment in armor recipes, but they will not get an inherent advantage for doing so. Each solution will be based on its own merits. Contractor proposals are to be submitted in April 2010 and contract awards, for cost-plus type contracts, are to be awarded after the Milestone A decision in September 2010. The challenge facing both DOD and the Army is to set these ground force modernization efforts on the best footing possible by buying the right capabilities at the best value. In many ways, DOD and the Army have set modernization efforts on a positive course, and they have an opportunity to reduce risks by adhering to the body of acquisition legislation and policy reforms—which incorporate knowledge-based best practices we identified in our previous work—that have been introduced since FCS started in 2003. The new legislation and policy reforms emphasize a knowledge-based acquisition approach, a cumulative process in which certain knowledge is acquired by key decision points before proceeding. In essence, knowledge supplants risk over time. Additionally, DOD and the Army can further reduce risks by considering lessons learned from problems that emerged during the FCS development effort. Initial indications are that the Army is moving in that direction. However, in the first major acquisition decision for the Army’s post-FCS initiatives, DOD and the Army—because they want to support the warfighter quickly—are proceeding with low-rate initial production of one brigade set of Increment 1 systems despite having acknowledged that the systems are immature, unreliable, and cannot perform as required. The body of acquisition legislation and DOD policy reforms introduced since FCS started in 2003 incorporates nearly all of the knowledge-based practices we identified in our previous work (see table 2). For example, DOD acquisition policy includes controls to ensure that programs have demonstrated a certain level of technology maturity, design stability, and production maturity before proceeding into the next phase of the acquisition process. As such, if the Army proceeds with preliminary plans for new acquisition programs, then adherence to the acquisition direction in each of its new acquisition efforts provides an opportunity to improve the odds for successful outcomes, reduce risks for follow-on Army ground force modernization efforts, and deliver needed equipment more quickly and at lower costs. Conversely, acquisition efforts that proceed with less technology, design, and manufacturing knowledge than best practices suggest face a higher risk of cost increases and schedule delays. As shown in table 2, the cumulative building of knowledge consists of information that should be gathered at three critical points over the course of a program: Knowledge point 1 (at the program launch or Milestone B decision): Establishing a business case that balances requirements with resources. At this point, a match must be made between the customer’s needs and the developer’s available resources—technology, engineering, knowledge, time, and funding. A high level of technology maturity, demonstrated via a prototype in its intended environment, indicates whether resources and requirements match. Also, the developer completes a preliminary design of the product that shows that the design is feasible and that requirements are predictable and doable.