On June 28, 2006, the Bush Administration announced its proposal to sell 36 F-16 C/D Block50/52 Falcon combat aircraft to Pakistan at an estimated case value of $3 billion. Three other F-16related sales to Pakistan were also proposed on June 28. These sales include F16 A/B Mid-LifeUpdate Modification Kits to upgrade existing Pakistani F-16 aircraft bought during PresidentReagan's first term; engine modifications and structural upgrades for existing F-16s, and variousmissiles, munitions and associated hardware to be utilized on the Pakistani F-16s. (1) Some believe that these salesare partly an effort to reward the Pakistani Government for the role it has played in support ofU.S.-led anti-terrorism efforts, and this consideration is noted in the text of the formal notificationof the F-16 sales. From the date (June 28, 2006) when Congress was formally notified of the proposed F-16sales to Pakistan, Congress has 30 calendar days within which to review the proposed sales, andexpress its will in accordance with statutory procedures set out in Section 36 of the Arms ExportControl Act (AECA). Should Congress chose to block the Pakistani sales, it must act to do so withinthe prescribed 30 days through the enactment of a joint resolution of disapproval. Otherwise, thePresident is authorized to proceed with the sales. (2) Pakistan-U.S. relations are rooted in the Cold War and South Asia regional politics of the1950s. Differing expectations of the regional security relationship have long bedeviled bilateral ties:the United States viewed Pakistan as a valuable ally in its efforts to contain the Soviet Union;Pakistan saw the United States as a powerful guarantor of its security vis-a-vis India. In themid-1970s, strains arose over Pakistan's efforts to respond to India's 1974 underground nuclear testby seeking its own nuclear weapons capability; U.S. aid was suspended in 1979. However, onlymonths later, Pakistan again took the role of frontline ally, this time in the U.S.-supported effort topush the Soviet Army out of Afghanistan, and sanctions were waived. Despite the renewal of U.S.aid and close security ties, many in Congress remained troubled by Pakistan's nuclear weaponsprogram. In 1985, Section 620E(e) (the Pressler amendment) was added to the Foreign AssistanceAct, requiring the President to certify to Congress that Pakistan does not possess a nuclear explosivedevice during the fiscal year for which aid is to be provided. With the Soviet withdrawal fromAfghanistan, Pakistan's nuclear activities again came under intensive U.S. scrutiny and, in 1990,President George H.W. Bush again suspended aid to Pakistan. One result of this aid cutoff was thenon-delivery of 28 F-16 fighter aircraft purchased by Pakistan in 1989 (in 1998, the United Statesagreed to compensate Pakistan with a cash payment and goods, including surplus wheat). It was notuntil late-2001, when the United States again looked to Pakistan as a frontline ally, that major U.S.aid, including major weapons systems, again flowed to Pakistan. (3) The U.S.-India relationship was for decades dictated by the politics of the Cold War. TheSoviet collapse freed India-U.S. relations from the constraints of global bipolarity, but during the1990s interactions continued to be affected by the India-Pakistan rivalry and nuclear weaponsproliferation in the region. Recently, however, bilateral relations are greatly improved, with PresidentBush calling India a "natural partner" of the United States and his Administration seeking to assistIndia's rise as a major power in the new century. Despite a concurrent U.S. rapprochement withPakistan, U.S.-India security cooperation has flourished and includes regular military exercises. InJune 2005, the United States and India signed a ten-year defense framework agreement that calls forexpanding bilateral cooperation in a number of security-related areas. Some laud increasedU.S.-India security ties as providing potential counterbalance to Chinese influence in the region, butthe emergence of an overt counterweight alliance is viewed by many as both misguided andunlikely. (4) Three full-scale wars and a constant state of military friction have marked nearly six decadesof rivalry between Pakistan and India. The acrimonious nature of the partition of British India intotwo successor states in 1947 and the unresolved issue of Kashmiri sovereignty have been majorsources of tension. Both countries have built large defense establishments at significant cost toeconomic and social development. Nevertheless, a peace initiative begun in 2003 has improved therelationship and led to a January 2004 summit and an agreement to re-engage in a dialogue to bringabout "peaceful settlement of all bilateral issues, including Jammu and Kashmir, to the satisfactionof both sides." In April 2005, the two governments released a joint statement calling their currentbilateral peace process "irreversible," although some analysts believe the process could quicklyunravel following a major terrorist attack or some other unforeseen development. Officials fromboth countries (and the United States) offer generally positive assessments of the ongoing dialogueeven as progress on territorial disputes, especially that involving Kashmir, has been minimal. ThePentagon's June 2006 notifications to Congress assert that Pakistan's planned purchase of new F-16sand related equipment "would not significantly reduce India's quantitative or qualitative militaryadvantage" nor affect the regional balance of power. The F-16 Falcon is a single engine multi-role aircraft manufactured by Lockheed MartinCorp. Its relatively low cost and high versatility make the F-16 one of the most exported fighteraircraft in the world. The F-16 was first fielded in 1979 and has been upgraded significantly. Thecapabilities of the F-16 vary greatly depending on the upgrade or modification fielded. The mostmodern F-16 flown by the United States is the Block 50/52. The aircraft being proposed for exportto Pakistan will incorporate high-resolution radars capable of all-weather precision targeting andair-to-air combat at extended ranges. A helmet-mounted cuing system will improve the aircraft's"dogfighting" capability as well as air-to-ground lethality. Integrated defensive electroniccountermeasures will reduce the aircraft's vulnerability to enemy aircraft and air defenses, andconformal fuel tanks will increase the F-16's range without reducing the number of weapons carried. The F/A-18E/F Super Hornet is a dual engine, multi-role aircraft manufactured by the BoeingCompany. It is the U.S. Navy's most modern and capable combat aircraft. The Super Hornet reached initial operational capability in 2001. The differences between the E/F and earlier F/A-18variants (A/B, C/D) are so great, that many consider it to be a new aircraft rather than an upgrade ofan existing model. The Super Hornet has been approved for export, but no sales have yet beenmade. The F/A-18C/D models, which are no longer in production, have been exported to eightcountries. It is currently unclear what long-term effects a potential sale of combat aircraft to South Asiamight have on U.S. political relations with Pakistan and India, or the political relationship betweenthem. The Bush Administration's decision to resume F-16 sales to Pakistan after a 16-year hiatuswas first announced at a March 2005 press conference by unnamed senior State Department officials. At that conference, the Administration unveiled a "new strategy" for South Asia that includes anintention to help India "become a major world power in the 21st century." Administration officialsalso said the United States welcomes India's interest in the possible purchase of F-16 or F/A-18warplanes and is ready to discuss the sale of "transformative systems in areas such as command andcontrol, early warning, and missile defense." (5) Two days before the State Department's March 2005 statements,twenty Members of the House wrote to President Bush urging him to not license the sale of F-16aircraft to Pakistan as such a sale would "undermine our long-term strategic interests in South Asia"and "squander an opportunity" to continue building positive relations with India. (6) Meanwhile, Indian PrimeMinister Manmohan Singh expressed "great disappointment" at the U.S. decision, saying the move"could have negative consequences for India's security environment," but he later softened hiscriticism and welcomed an apparent U.S. willingness to expand cooperation with India. Fifteenmonths later, when the Bush Administration formally notified Congress of a potential sale of F-16sto Pakistan, an Indian External Affairs Ministry statement said the step "is not conducive toimproving ties between India and Pakistan." (7) Justifications for the decision to resume F-16 sales include a U.S. interest that Pakistan "feelsecure" and a perception that a substantive U.S. defense relationship with both Pakistan and Indiawill stabilize "the balance" between them. In June 2006, the White House said the planned F-16 sale"demonstrates our commitment to a long-term relationship with Pakistan." (8) Some believe the decision isa reward to President Gen. Musharraf and the Pakistani military for their post-9/11 cooperation withU.S.-led counterterrorism efforts, and see renewed exports as potentially increasing U.S. leveragein Islamabad while eroding anti-American sentiments there. Such leverage could include increasedPakistani cooperation in the areas of counterterrorism and nonproliferation. (9) It may be that the timing ofthe June 2006 notification was influenced by developments in U.S.-India relations. Washington andNew Delhi are moving forward with a landmark civil nuclear cooperation initiative.