The National Airlift Policy, issued in June 1987, reinforced the need for and use of the Civil Reserve Air Fleet (CRAF) program, established in 1951. The policy states that military and commercial airlift resources are equally important; that DOD should determine which resources must be moved by the military and which can be moved by commercial air carriers; and that commercial carriers will be relied upon to provide airlift capability beyond the capability of the military fleet. It also states that during peacetime, DOD requirements for passengers and/or cargo airlift augmentation shall be satisfied by the procurement of airlift from commercial air carriers participating in the CRAF program. Military airlift requirements are fulfilled by a mix of both military and civilian aircraft. Currently, the military airlift fleet is comprised of 82 C-17, 110 C-5, 468 C-130, and 69 C-141 aircraft. The older C-141 aircraft are being phased out and replaced by additional C-17 aircraft. There are also 54 KC-10 aircraft, which perform both airlift and refueling missions. The CRAF program includes 927 cargo and passenger aircraft from U.S. commercial air carriers. CRAF participants are required to respond within 24 hours of activation in the event of stage I (a regional crisis in which the Air Mobility Command’s (AMC) aircraft fleet cannot meet both deployment and other traffic requirements simultaneously) or stage II (a major war that does not warrant full national mobilization). Stage III—multiple theater wars or a national mobilization—requires that total CRAF airlift capability be made available to DOD within 48 hours of activation. Aircraft used in stages I and II are also available in subsequent stages. In the event of activation, AMC assumes mission control, but the carriers continue to operate and support the aircraft (support includes fuel, spare parts, and maintenance). Stage I was activated for the first and only time on August 17, 1990, during Operation Desert Shield. Stage II was activated on January 17, 1991, for Operation Desert Storm. The total number of aircraft committed to CRAF (see table 1) accounts for about 15 percent of all U.S.-owned commercial aircraft forecasted for 2003. Appendix I lists the carriers participating in the CRAF program as of October 2002 and the total number of aircraft each has committed through stage III. More aircraft are committed to the CRAF program than are needed to fulfill the wartime requirements established by the Mobility Requirements Study 2005 (MRS-05). There was a shortage of aeromedical evacuation aircraft, but this has been recently eliminated. Program participants stated that they would be capable of providing the needed levels of aircraft and crews within the necessary time frames, even with recent furloughs and with crewmembers that have National Guard or Reserve commitments. A new mobility requirements study could see an increase in the need for CRAF based on a change from the two major theater war scenario to the new strategy of planning for a range of military operations that was described in DOD’s recent Quadrennial Defense Review Report, issued in September 2001. Under MRS-05’s two major war scenario, the study assumed that both military and CRAF aircraft were needed and that CRAF would be required to move 20.5 million ton miles a day, or 41 percent of all military bulk cargo deliveries. CRAF would also carry 93 percent of all passengers and provide almost all aeromedical evacuation needs. In fiscal year 2002, there were only 31 of the 40 B-767s required to be available for conversion to aeromedical evacuation. However, commercial carriers increased their commitment to 46 of these aircraft for fiscal year 2003. Table 2 compares the requirements for a stage III CRAF activation with commitments by program participants. Officials from CRAF air carrier participants that we visited confirmed that they would be able to provide the agreed levels of airlift capacity within the necessary time frames and that the turmoil in the airline industry after the attacks of September 11, 2001, would not affect their ability to do so. The officials said they would also be able to provide at least four flight crews per aircraft (crewmembers must also be U.S. citizens), as they are required to do by AMC Regulation 55-8. This is in spite of the fact that some carriers have had to furlough pilots during the recent economic downturn and that employees with National Guard or Reserve commitments cannot be included in available crew lists. The same regulation requires that commercial carrier personnel with military Reserve or National Guard commitments not be considered in the cockpit crew-to-aircraft ratio. They can, however, be used in CRAF carrier work until their military units have alerted them of a recall to active duty. Officials from the carriers we visited said they monitor their crewmembers’ reserve commitments carefully and usually maintain a higher crew-to-plane ratio than DOD requires. For example, one carrier we visited operates with a crew-to-plane ratio of 10 to 1, instead of the 4 to 1 DOD requires for CRAF carriers. DOD also inspects carriers annually, and the inspectors have been satisfied that the carriers could meet the crew-to-plane ratio. The MRS-05 did not consider CRAF’s full capacity, and it set a ceiling of 20.5 million ton miles on daily CRAF airlift requirements. According to DOD officials, the study restricted CRAF cargo capacity to 20.5 million ton miles per day because DOD’s airfields can accommodate only a certain number of aircraft at the same time. Also, they stated that using additional CRAF aircraft would reduce efficiency because of the type of cargo CRAF is modeled to carry. They said that commercial aircraft can take longer to unload than military aircraft and require special material handling equipment to be available at an off-loading base. Military aircraft, on the other hand, do not need specialized loading equipment because they are high-winged and lower to the ground. Furthermore, the MRS-05 did not consider the ability of the commercial industry to carry different cargo sizes. The MRS-05 modeled CRAF aircraft carrying only bulk cargo. According to Air Force officials, the U.S. commercial cargo fleet has limited ability to carry oversized cargo and no ability to carry outsized cargo. They stated that it is difficult, from a planning perspective, to model CRAF aircraft carrying oversized cargo because the models would need to distinguish between the types of oversized cargo and the types of aircraft. They also stated that using more CRAF capacity than the 20.5 million ton mile limit would flow more bulk cargo into a theater instead of oversized and outsized unit equipment brought in by the larger military aircraft. In reality, however, commercial aircraft do carry some oversized cargo. DOD is examining how much oversized equipment can be moved by CRAF so that this capability can be included in future mobility studies. DOD’s Defense Planning Guidance, issued in August 2001, requires that mobility requirements be reevaluated by 2004, and DOD officials believe that future requirements will be higher because of the increased number of possible scenarios included in the guidance. We believe that a study that also takes into consideration excess CRAF capacity and the types of cargo that CRAF can accommodate could provide a more realistic picture of needs and capabilities. It could also mitigate some of the concerns about airfield capacity and flow of cargo into a theater if CRAF aircraft could move some of the oversized cargo. This could get the larger cargo to a unit as it was needed, instead of bulk cargo, which may not be as time-critical. One of the key stated incentives of the CRAF program—the ability to bid on peacetime government business—may be losing its effectiveness because DOD uses almost exclusively one type of aircraft, the B-747, for its peacetime cargo missions. Over 94 percent, or 892, of 946 wide-body missions flown by CRAF participants in the first 10 months of fiscal year 2002 were carried out by B-747s, which accounted for only 38 percent of wide-body cargo aircraft committed to the CRAF program. Some major CRAF participants who do not have B-747s have suggested that they might reduce or end their participation in the program if they do not receive any business in return for their commitment. This could have a serious effect on the program’s ability to meet future requirements, especially if those requirements increase due to the change in focus from two major theater wars to a range of military operations outlined in the recent Quadrennial Defense Review. Only carriers that participate in the CRAF program can bid on peacetime mobility business. Carriers can bid on a percentage of peacetime business in direct proportion to their commitment to the program. Participants earn mobilization value points, which are based on the number and type of committed aircraft. In assigning mobilization value points, DOD measures each volunteered passenger or cargo aircraft against the capacity and airspeed of a B-747-100. Participants in the aeromedical evacuation segment of CRAF receive double the mobilization value points because of the significant reconfiguration their aircraft (B-767s) must undergo. The points are used to determine how much commercial business each participant can bid on out of the total, which in fiscal year 2002 more than doubled to $1.28 billion from $572 million the previous year (see app. II for annual amounts since fiscal year 1998). Participants with 62 percent of the wide-body cargo aircraft committed to CRAF are not able to bid on most peacetime cargo business because they do not have B-747s. An AMC official said that most requests for cargo aircraft require a 90-ton capacity, the same as that of a 747-type aircraft but slightly more than those of other wide-body aircraft such as the MD-11 (86 tons) or the DC-10 (75 tons).