Foreign ballistic and cruise missiles pose a potential threat to the national security interestsof the United States. While weapons of mass destruction (WMD) can be delivered by a variety ofmeans including aircraft, artillery, and asymmetric means, it is missile-delivered WMDs that garnerthe most domestic and international attention. Countries with a WMD missile capability have thepotential to influence the actions of other countries in their regions or even countries on anothercontinent and, in some cases, destroy population centers and national infrastructure. At the presenttime, the United States is within range of the ballistic missiles of Russia, China, and perhaps NorthKorea, as well as France and the United Kingdom. Several other countries have missiles withinrange of U.S. overseas facilities and interests. A number of countries are attempting to eitherprocure or develop longer-range ballistic missiles to accurately deliver WMDs over great distancesand many fear that one day such an attack may be launched against the United States by a regionalpower or rogue state where stringent political and military controls over these weapons are notexercised. Estimates of the missile threat to the United States continue to be controversial for a numberof reasons. One is that many missile programs have moved underground and can also be hidden ina country's civilian space or aerospace industry, making it much harder for intelligence organizationsto track development. There is also some controversy still surrounding the 1995 NationalIntelligence Estimate and 1998's Report of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threatto the United States ( P.L. 104-201 ) also known as the Rumsfeld Commission Report. Despitenumerous recent developments in missile programs world-wide, the Rumsfeld Commission Reportcontinues in 2005 to be the open source benchmark for missile proliferation. While there is stilldisagreement about the extent of the missile threat, the Bush Administration's unwaveringcommitment to ballistic missile defense has resulted in the deployment of ballistic missileinterceptors at Ft. Greely, Alaska and Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. (1) Estimates released by the U.S. Intelligence Community vary little from those issued in thelate 1990s by the Rumsfeld Committee. Iran is still assessed as being capable of developing anintercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) (2) capable of reaching the United States by 2015 (3) although in the1995 NationalIntelligence Estimate (NIE) most intelligence agencies believed that this could happen before 2015. The NIE also cites North Korea as posing an ICBM threat to the United States before 2015. Likewise, North Korea's ballistic missile development time lines may need to be re-evaluated as newmissile programs are apparently underway. While not posing a direct threat to the United States, theproliferation of shorter range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles has resulted in heightened regionaltensions in the Middle East, between India and Pakistan, and between China and Taiwan. Some maintain that the long-range ballistic missile threat has decreased significantly sincethe Cold War, primarily due to nonproliferation treaties and arrangements. (4) The most significantreduction, they argue, are in ICBMs, SLBMs, IRBMs, and MRBMs, and that even SRBMs are"beginning to decrease as aging inventories are retired." (5) Given these decreases, the threat is characterized by some asfollows: There is a widespread capability to launch short-rangemissiles; There is a slowly growing, but limited, capability to launch medium-rangemissiles; A decreasing number of long-range missiles from Cold War levels that willcontinue to drop significantly over the next fifteen years; A possibility that one or two new nations could acquire a limited capability tolaunch long-range missiles over the next two decades; Likelihood of a nation attacking the United States or Europe with a ballisticmissile is exceptionally low. (6) Others also note the increase in SRBMs - particularly in the 100 to 200 km range - as wellan increase in programs that modify existing surface-to-surface unguided rockets with guidance andcontrol sections, which adds a further low-cost SRBM capability. (7) Ballistic missiles are alsoconsidered "less expensive to maintain than an air force," and since "technologies can be transferredacross to satellite launch vehicles, earning hard currency," some analysts suggest that these factorswill insure the continued proliferation of ballistic missiles. (8) Given this possibility of increased proliferation, some conjecturethat the "ballistic missile and nuclear warhead threat situation is going to become more complex andinternational in nature, with whole regions likely to be involved rather than just individualcountries." (9) One significant trend is the increasing number of missile production and developmentfacilities. Fifteen countries are known to produce ballistic missiles: the United States, France,Russia, China, North Korea, South Korea, Taiwan, India, Pakistan, Iran, Israel, Egypt, Syria,Ukraine, and Argentina. Several other countries, including Germany, Japan, Great Britain, SouthAfrica, and Brazil could produce ballistic missiles but have chosen not to. When a country has amissile production facility, its ability to produce large quantities of missiles is limited only by itsability to obtain certain critical materials and components. When a country acquires a large numberof missiles and launchers, it may be able to launch sustained attacks and to overwhelm missiledefense systems. Production and research facilities also enable these regional powers to enhance therange, accuracy, destructiveness, and missile defense penetration aids of their missiles. Anotherimportant factor is that countries with an indigenous missile production capability also avoid exportcontrol restrictions when trying to import missiles and missile technology from outside sources. Finally, once a country produces missiles it can consider exporting them as well as the productiontechnology to still more countries for financial, political, or ideological rewards. North Korea hasbeen exporting missiles and missile production facilities for a number of years, and there is concernthat more countries will enter the missile market as suppliers. Russian and Chinese organizationshave been primary sources of missile technology and, in the past, Western firms also have transferredmissile technology. The primary cause for concern with missile proliferation is that missile systems can providecountries an effective vehicle for delivering nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons over longdistances. The most worrisome trend is the growing number of countries with both long-rangemissile and WMD programs. India and Pakistan have tested MRBMs and nuclear explosivedevices. North Korea, Iran, and Israel are suspected to have nuclear, chemical, and biologicalweapons programs as well as a variety of short and medium range missiles. Over the last several years, nuclear weapons programs have declined in number. SouthAfrica reportedly dismantled the nuclear weapons and missiles that it had developed. Argentina,Brazil, South Korea, and Taiwan also abandoned earlier nuclear weapon programs. Belarus,Kazakhstan, and Ukraine transferred to Russia the nuclear weapons they inherited from the SovietUnion. Recent revelations about the possibility of North Korea's development of nuclear weaponsand Iran's revitalized nuclear program could reverse this favorable trend. (11) Several other countries that have missiles also have chemical weapons, and some havechemical warheads for their missiles. Bulk filled chemical warheads for shorter-range ballisticmissiles are considered relatively easy to develop while chemical submunitions are consideredsomewhat more challenging. Biological warheads are considered fairly difficult to develop becauseof the difficulties associated with working with biological agents in terms of their sensitivity toenvironmental conditions during missile flight and upon dispersal.It has been reported that duringthe 1991 Gulf War, Iraq had missile warheads filled with a variety of nerve agents and others withbotulinum toxin and anthrax. China, Egypt, India, Iran, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, SaudiArabia, Serbia, South Korea, Syria, Taiwan, and Vietnam, all have missiles and reportedly havechemical weapons. Several countries reportedly have biological weapons programs, includingChina, Egypt, Iran, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, and Russia. (12) Ballistic missiles armed with conventional high-explosive warheads proved to be importantweapons of terror when used against cities in the Iran-Iraq war and the 1991 Gulf War. Thedevelopment of advanced conventional warheads, such as cluster bombs and fuel-air explosives, andenhanced missile reliability and accuracy will increase the military effectiveness of missiles armedwith conventional warheads. The United States has demonstrated the military effectiveness ofcruise missiles in several conflicts and a new generation of stealthy, more capable cruise missiles ispresently in development in a number of countries. (13) As missiles and missile production technology have become widely available, the demandfor longer-range missiles and nuclear, biological, and chemical warheads has increased. Becauseof their relatively low cost, ability to penetrate defenses, strike deep into an enemy's homeland, andto deliver nuclear or biological weapons that could threaten the survival of an enemy country,missiles have become a delivery system of choice and a symbol of national might for some countries. The technological and military prowess of the United States was demonstrated for the worldduring the 1991 Gulf War and again in Afghanistan and Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF). As a result,adversarial countries and non-state groups may be more likely to avoid direct conventional militaryconfrontation with the United States. Some potential adversaries, such as Iran and North Korea,continue to develop missiles and WMD as means to counter U.S. military strength in their regionand to intimidate or deter their neighbors. At the same time, several allies and neutral countries arealso building missiles and developing WMD to promote their perceived national security interests.