The ability to gather accurate and timely information on enemy forces is an essential enabler of modern military operations. Joint Vision 2010 , the Pentagon's "conceptual template...to achievenew levels of effectiveness in joint warfighting" specifically highlights the importance of achievinginformation dominance: "We must have information superiority: the capability to collect, processand disseminate an uninterrupted flow of information while exploiting or denying an adversary'sability to do the same." (1) The growing use ofprecision guided munitions (PGMs) which can destroyspecific targets without extensive collateral damage depends upon the availability of preciseinformation. As the Department of Defense (DOD) transforms itself into the force envisioned inJoint Vision 2010 and organizes its components consistent with "network centric"warfightingconcepts, the importance of accurate and timely information will grow. There is a consensus among defense policy makers that no single platform or technology can satisfy DOD's need for information at all times in all scenarios. The United States currentlyemploys a variety of satellites that collect information on enemy forces. These systems are valuable,and their effectiveness and role in intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) is projectedto grow. However, airborne ISR platforms can be more rapidly and flexibly deployed than currentsatellites, and an aircraft's unpredictable deployment and flight pattern makes it difficult foradversaries to effectively conceal themselves from observation. Thus, airborne platforms will likelycontinue to satisfy a great deal of DOD's ISR requirements over the next several decades. Both Congress and DOD face important decisions regarding current and future U.S. ISR capabilities. An overarching question is: Over the next 20 to 30 years, what mix of existing andplanned manned and unmanned ISR aircraft most effectively satisfies DOD's requirement for timelyand accurate information on enemy forces? The information they collect will be integrated (or"fused") with information from satellites, ground-based signals intelligence (SIGINT) intercept sites,human agents, and other sources. The particular mix of platforms will depend upon which sensorsthey can utilize, geopolitical conditions, and the nature of planned operations. Many observers believe that ultimately unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) will replace manned aircraft for collecting imagery, radar data, and signals intelligence for operational commanders. Itis not, however, clear that manned airborne reconnaissance is completely obsolete. Some observersbelieve that a pilot can react faster than a distant UAV operator to unexpected targets of opportunityand take evasive actions that might not otherwise be possible. Also, pilots may be less susceptiblethan remote UAV operators to some information warfare techniques. There remain a variety ofmanned reconnaissance aircraft in the inventories of the Air Force and the other services and someattack aircraft can be equipped with reconnaissance "pods" containing sensors of various types toenable them to serve on reconnaissance missions. The U.S. ISR inventory is comprised of a variety of manned and unmanned aircraft, which have various strengths and weaknesses. (See Table 1 below). Presently, the U-2 Dragon Lady forms thebackbone of this fleet. (2) Although based on a designdeveloped in the 1950s, U-2s have performedadmirably in recent operations. They provided 50% of all imagery during Operation Desert Storm,and 90% of ground forces targeting information. During Operation Allied Force, the U-2 providedmore than 80% of the imagery needed for air strikes. (3) There is, however, only a limited inventoryof U-2s, they are heavily used, and the plane is expected to be retired from the Air Force inventoryat some point during the next two decades. Global Hawk UAVs are often suggested as a replacement for U-2s and are portrayed as the main airborne reconnaissance platform of the future. The first test version of these planes has beenundergoing test and evaluation and there is an apparent consensus that it should be acquired for theoperating forces. The Global Hawk can operate at altitudes of 65,000 feet and for periods in excessof 30 hours. Although having the important advantage of not putting pilots at risk, Global Hawksdo not now match all the capabilities of U-2. No Global Hawk is currently in the operationalinventory. Furthermore, current acquisition plans do not call for sufficient numbers of Global Hawksto replace the hours-on-station that can be maintained by existing U-2s. Thus, if Air Force ISR capabilities are to be maintained (and some believe they need to be expanded if current operations tempos are to be maintained in the future), a number of seriousacquisition and budgetary issues need to be addressed. What are the current and anticipated requirements for airborne surveillance platforms? Can Global Hawks be designed to have the capabilities now possessed by the U-2? Or, should multiple UAVs be acquired to replace a single U-2? If a larger or accelerated Global Hawk acquisition effort is approved, where will funding be identified? Should U-2s or other manned aircraft be maintained in the Air Force inventory even as Global Hawks become operational? Are additional U-2s needed, regardless of the introduction of the Global Hawk? What would be the implications for ISR if U-2s were to be decommissioned at a faster rate than planned to free up funds for additional or accelerated Global Hawkacquisition? These questions, and others, will be discussed in the context of the FY2002 Defense budget which the next administration will forward to Congress early in 2001. Although significantbudgetary issues are involved, there are also important implications for the future effectiveness ofISR and the success of defense planning for achieving military goals while minimizing the loss oflife. Table 1. USAF Reconnaissance & Surveillance Aircraft ActiveInventory (May 2000) (4) The U-2 is a single-seat, single-engine, high-altitude, reconnaissance aircraft. It provides continuous all-weather, day or night, stand-off intelligence through all phases of conflict in directsupport of theater military commanders. Long, wide, straight wings give the U-2 the appearance andcharacteristics of a glider. The U-2 is a reliable aircraft with a high mission completion rate. (5) U-2s are based at Beale Air Force Base, California and support theater commanders from four operational detachments located throughout the world, which have included in recent years: OsanAir Base, South Korea; RAF Akrotiri Air Base, Cyprus; Sigonella, Sicily; Istres Air Base, France;and Taif and Prince Sultan Air Bases, Saudi Arabia. U-2 detachments can deploy to other operatinglocations if necessary. Intended to overfly the vast expanses of the Soviet Union at a time when there were no satellites, the U-2 was designed to fly at very high altitudes to avoid detection and attack. (6) Beginningin the 1980s an updated version of the U-2 began to replace the earlier models. (7) From 1994 to 1999,U-2R aircraft were upgraded with the General Electric F-118-10 engine, which burns less fuel,reduces weight and increases power. The upgraded aircraft were re-designated as a U-2S/ST. TheAir Force expects this airframe and engine combination to last until 2050. (9) The U-2 can carry a variety of sensors and cameras depending on its assigned mission. It is capable of collecting multi-sensor photo, electro-optic, infrared and radar imagery, as well asperforming other types of reconnaissance functions such as SIGINT collection. Photographicsensors include the HR-329 high resolution camera and the Optical Bar camera. Electro-opticsystems include the Intelligence Reconnaissance Imagery System III, and the Senior YearElectro-Optical Reconnaissance System (SYERS), which also collects information in the infra red(IR) wavelength. These systems vary in resolution and aperture, but when combined, can captureimages of territory on the order of 33 x 21 nautical miles. (10) The Advanced Synthetic Aperture RadarSystem (ASARS) gives the U-2 real-time, high resolution -- although not as high as EO systems-- capability at night and in bad weather (when the EO systems cannot function effectively) with animproved capability to detect moving targets. (11) The U-2's Senior Glass SIGINT capability is composed of the Senior Ruby electronic intelligence (ELINT) sensor and the Senior Spear communications intelligence (COMINT) sensor. These systems can acquire signals and telemetry at 300 nautical miles, downlink data to groundstations 300 nautical miles away, giving the U-2 a real-time "reach of 600 nautical miles (690 statutemiles, 1,110 km). The Senior Span pod, which is attached to the top of the fuselage allows the U-2to transmit SIGINT data via satellites to global ranges." (12) The Senior Spur pod, performs the samefunction for ASARS data. (13) The U-2 is notoriously difficult to fly. Pilots called the U-2 "Dragon Lady" because of its unforgiving handling characteristics at altitude. (14) Landing the U-2 is a complex ballet that oftenentails intentionally stalling the aircraft, employing runway "chase cars,"and oftentimes deliberatelydragging the plane's wingtip down the runway. A major challenge for the Air Force is maintaining an adequate supply of U-2 pilots. U-2 pilots face physical rigors that are unique in the aviation world. Flying at extreme altitudes, pilots mustwear pressure suits similar to those worn by astronauts.