BRAC 2005 was the fifth round of decisions designed to streamline the nation’s defense infrastructure. Unlike past BRAC rounds, which have generally focused on reducing excess physical infrastructure, this round also presents military growth challenges for DOD, states, and local governments. Its implementation will increase the numbers of on-base personnel, military families, and defense-related contractors at and near 18 military bases. Furthermore, because the BRAC realignments must, by law, be completed by September 15, 2011, these community changes will be rapid, as personnel will arrive quickly once the bases are readied. Figure 1 shows the 18 bases where BRAC growth will affect neighboring communities. Other military growth communities exist, but their growth is not a result of BRAC. While BRAC 2005 is taking place, other major initiatives will increase growth at and near some BRAC-affected bases. These include two major military reorganizations. First, the Global Defense Posture Realignment initiative will move about 70,000 military and civilian personnel from overseas to U.S. bases by 2011 to better support current strategies and address emerging threats. Second, the Army’s force modularity effort will restructure the Army from a division-based force to a more readily deployable modular, brigade-based force. Some of these brigade units will relocate to other existing bases. A third initiative, Grow the Force, is not a reorganization but will increase the permanent strength of the military to enhance overall U.S. forces. This initiative will add about 74,000 soldiers and about 27,000 marines. Finally, troop drawdowns from Iraq could increase personnel numbers at some BRAC-affected bases. These other military initiatives will also be implemented over a longer time frame than BRAC decisions, which are scheduled to be completed in 2011. Though not a major force initiative, DOD’s enhanced use lease (EUL) activities will also affect growth and development in military communities. EULs allow the military to lease its land to private developers to build offices and other facilities that generate operating income for the military. In some cases, the growth from EUL activities may exceed the BRAC- related growth. For example, the EUL at Fort Meade, which is planned to include up to 2 million square feet of office space, could house up to 10,000 new workers by 2013. This EUL activity will generate more new jobs in the Fort Meade area than the 6,600 additional military and civilian DOD personnel attributable to BRAC. Because all these initiatives are taking place at the same time, the forces driving growth at military bases and the surrounding communities are more complex than they would be if they were the result of BRAC decisions alone. As table 1 indicates, six of the eight bases we visited expect to be affected by various defense initiatives in addition to BRAC. During fiscal years 2006 through 2012, the populations of the communities in the vicinity of the 18 BRAC bases identified in figure 1 are expected to increase by an estimated 181,800 military and civilian personnel, plus an estimated 173,200 dependents, for a total increase of about 355,000 persons, as shown in table 2. At two bases, Fort Bliss and Fort Belvoir, DOD has estimated that the on-base populations alone will more than double. In addition, defense-related contractors who follow and settle near the relocated commands will compound the growth and traffic near some bases, and the impact of these contractor relocations is not reflected in the military growth figures. For example, at Fort Meade, Maryland, DOD has estimated that an additional 10,000 contractor personnel may relocate near to or on the base. OEA is DOD’s primary source for assisting communities adversely affected by defense program changes, including base closures or realignments. OEA provides guidance and assistance to growth communities through growth management planning grants, guidance, and expertise to help communities with significantly adverse consequences as a result of BRAC decisions. OEA has identified those communities that are expected to be impacted by BRAC-related growth and that have expressed a need for planning assistance. As part of this assistance, OEA has provided support to communities to hire planners or consultants to perform studies identifying infrastructure needs created by military growth. Additionally, DOD’s Defense Access Roads (DAR) Program may allow Military Construction funds to help address highway needs created by military activities. The focus of DAR is not typical traffic growth, which should be addressed through normal federal, state, and local transportation programs, but rather unusual changes and military necessity. National security is one of the explicit goals of the Federal-Aid Highway Program; however, DOT does not have special programs to deal with military growth. Nevertheless, many federal transportation grant programs provide state and local governments with funding that they can use to help address BRAC-related transportation challenges. The Federal-Aid Highway program consists of seven core formula grant programs and several smaller formula and discretionary grant programs. Broad flexibility provisions allow for states to transfer funds between core programs and also to eligible transit projects. Federal capital transit programs include formula grants to transit agencies and states. Additionally, transit capital investment grants provide discretionary funds for the construction and extension of fixed-guideway systems such as rail or bus rapid transit lines. Federal transportation programs also require states to set their own priorities for addressing transportation needs. Traffic growth impacts can be analyzed by the effect of the addition of automobiles on traffic flow. Generally, traffic flow on roadways is measured by “level of service,” a qualitative grading system. The Transportation Research Board defines service levels for roadways using “A through F” grades. Service level “A” defines roadways with no delays and unimpeded traffic flow at posted speed limits. Service level “F” is defined as a failing service level and describes roadways with traffic conditions that most drivers consider to be unacceptable. Drivers on these roadways experience long delays and poor to nonexistent traffic flow. Even small increases in traffic can have a large impact when roads are already congested. Affected communities expect BRAC and other military growth initiatives to have a significant impact on local transportation. In response to an OEA survey, nearly all BRAC growth communities identified transportation as a top growth challenge. Transportation studies done in communities of varying size show how BRAC-related growth is expected to result in a deterioration of traffic conditions. Affected communities identified about $2 billion in expected costs for transportation projects that they consider needed to address military growth in the near term, before the September 2011 deadline. The costs of longer-term projects to address the impact of military growth on transportation in these communities beyond the BRAC deadline are uncertain. Many communities affected by BRAC growth recognize that changes resulting from that growth will place additional demands on their transportation systems. In 2007, OEA asked growth communities, including 18 current BRAC growth communities, to determine which of the problems they would face as a result of military growth would create the greatest challenges. Of 18 current BRAC-growth communities, 17 identified transportation as one of their top three priorities. These 17 communities ranged in size from very large metropolitan areas to relatively small communities, and the extent of the impact depended in part on the size of the affected community. Some BRAC growth bases are located in metropolitan areas with populations of well over 1 million. In these areas, the military growth may be small relative to the community’s total population, but the community nevertheless anticipates localized effects on already congested urban roadways. At the National Naval Medical Center, for example—a BRAC growth base located in Bethesda, Maryland, a densely populated Washington suburb—a planned consolidation with Walter Reed Army Medical Center, located in Washington, D.C., will create additional traffic not only from 2,500 additional hospital employees, but also from patients and visitors, resulting in an about 1,900 estimated additional trips to the hospital campus per day. While small compared to the regional population, these additional employees, patients, and visitors will travel to the base using either the Washington Metrorail system or by bus or auto on an already congested roadway system. The medical center is located near two major arterial roads, two state highways, and an Interstate highway (I-495, the Capitol Beltway). It is also located across from the National Institutes of Health, where over 18,000 personnel are employed. According to Maryland transportation planners, the additional traffic resulting from the BRAC action will lead to further deterioration of traffic conditions in the area. Specifically, without intersection improvements, the number of intersections with failing conditions is projected to increase from three to five. In addition, traffic conditions may deteriorate at 10 other intersections, but not to the point of failure. Traffic analyses done for DOD as part of an environmental impact statement (EIS) reviewed 27 major intersections in the vicinity and estimated that with no improvements, the increases in traffic would result in failing or deteriorating service levels at 15 of those intersections during peak periods, compared with current conditions. Such declining service levels mean significant delays will occur, likely increasing base employees’ and others’ commute times. Fort Belvoir is located in Fairfax County, Virginia, where employment and development have grown rapidly and transportation improvements have not kept pace with growth. The planned net addition of 24,100 personnel at the base will increase congestion on the already congested Interstate highway (I-95). Local planners anticipate additional BRAC-related congestion on a number of other nearby Interstate, federal, and local highways (I-395, I-495, U.S. Route 1, and the Fairfax County Parkway). The physical layout of Fort Belvoir also complicates commuter access, in that the base is situated on two major land parcels—the main post and the Engineer Proving Ground—separated by a busy highway (see fig. 2). In addition, gate and road closures after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks have already concentrated traffic near the base.