Leadership transition . North Korea's power centers appear to be consolidating around Kim Jong-un, at least as the country's nominal leader. The most tangible sign of this occurred on December 30, when a key organ of the Communist Party (officially the Workers' Party of Korea, or WPK) met and selected Kim as "Supreme Commander" of the North Korean military (officially, the Korean People's Army, or KPA). Although North Korean propaganda outlets have been routinely referring to Kim Jong-un as "supreme leader" since Kim Jong-il died, this move by the WPK was the first actual position to be bestowed upon the younger Kim since. For the future, an indicator North Korea experts are watching is whether Kim Jong-un is named to other key positions, particularly Chairman of the National Defense Commission and/or General Secretary of the WPK Secretariat. Kim Jong-il held both titles, and used the National Defense Commission as his institutional base of power. North Korea's diplomacy. In the weeks since Kim Jong-il's death, North Korean government organs and propaganda outlets have issued harsh rhetorical volleys at South Korea, which have been based upon the South Korean government's allegedly disrespectful reaction to Kim Jong-il's death. South Korean President Lee Myung-bak's government issued a statement expressing its "its sympathy to the people of North Korea," but neither sent an official delegation to Pyongyang nor conveyed official condolences to the Kim family. Also, the North Korean government objected to Lee's prohibition on virtually all South Koreans from traveling to Pyongyang to pay their respects. On this pretext, the North Korean agency for handling relations with Seoul declared that in the future, "there is nothing to expect from the inter-Korean relations" and "there is no reason for us to say anything" to the Lee government during the remaining thirteen months of Lee's term. North Korea has issued similar statements in the past, only to re-engage in inter-Korean talks later. In statements regarding the United States, North Korea has appeared to take a rhetorically more confrontational stance than in the weeks before Kim Jong-il's death. For instance, the annual New Year's message of January 1, 2012, for the first time in four years emphasized the government's demand that U.S. troops withdraw from South Korea. Also, on January 11, the North Korean official media criticized the United States for "politicizing" bilateral negotiations over food aid by allegedly insisting that food be given only if North Korea agrees to concessions on its nuclear program. Regional diplomacy . In a sign of the dialogue occurring among the various powers in Northeast Asia, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia Kurt Campbell visited Beijing, Seoul, and Tokyo in from January 3-7. He told reporters in Tokyo that he had made clear the U.S. position "that North Korea must refrain from any acts that could create a disturbance on the Korean Pensinsula." He added that, "we've particularly passed that message directly to our senior Chinese interlocutors." South Korean President Lee Myung-bak traveled to Beijing for a January 9-11 state visit. At the end of the South Korean leader's visit to China, the two sides issues a joint press communique in which they pledged their commitment to maintaining peace and stability on the Korean peninsula, and to working with the international community to create conditions for resumption of the Six-Party Talks. One notable feature of official U.S. and South Korean reactions to Kim Jong-il's death is the extent to which both governments have publicly stated their desire for North Korea to remain stable. Instability in North Korea would pose a number of challenges and possibly threats to the United States, South Korea, and the region. Perhaps the most worrisome are the possibilities that controls over North Korea's nuclear materials might loosen, that a weak leadership in Pyongyang could lash out militarily, and that a power vacuum could suck U.S., South Korean, and Chinese military forces into North Korea. In the coming months, both stabilizing and destabilizing dynamics will be operating simultaneously inside North Korea. It is likely that that cohesive tendencies will predominate in the short run, as members of the ruling elite rally around Kim Jong-un, as has been seen by members of the ruling elite paying their respects to the new ruler in the days since his father's death. In particular, most analysts expect that the regime collective will strive to maintain unity at least until April 2012, when the country is planning to celebrate the 100 th anniversary of the birth of founder Kim Il-Sung. However, over time, few would be surprised if tensions were to mount among the power centers of the North Korean system. Kim Jong-il's death, which officially occurred on December 17, has long been high on most North Korea-watchers' lists of events that could trigger the collapse of the North Korean regime. The untested Kim Jong-un, who is thought to be in his late 20s, has had less than two years to consolidate his power base, in contrast to the more than two decades of on-the-job training his father enjoyed before he became the country's supreme leader in 1994. Perhaps most importantly, while almost nothing is known about the younger Kim, it is believed that he has only weak ties to and authority over the Korean People's Army (KPA, as the North Korean military is known), arguably the country's most important center of power. Indeed, some speculate that Kim's presumed domestic weakness could lead North Korea to launch a small-scale military provocation, such as a third nuclear test, in 2012 as a way to bolster his leadership. Moreover, ruling North Korea today is far more complex than is was during the country's last leadership transition in 1994, upon the death of Kim Jong-il's father, the country's founder and "Great Leader" Kim il-Sung. Two decades of chronic food shortagesâwhich peaked in the famine of the late 1990s that killed between 5%-10% of the country's approximately 22 million peopleâhave caused the breakdown of the state-run distribution system and the emergence of official and clandestine markets, as ordinary North Koreans have had to fend for themselves to feed their families. More North Koreans are exposed to the outside world than ever before. Some venture back and forth into China, own cell phones, have access to foreign radio and television broadcasts, and are able to purchase foreign products. The police state has become highly corruptible, and access to foreign exchange has become a new path to power and protection. The "Great Successor," as Kim Jong-un has been dubbed by the official North Korean media, has had little time to gain experience managing various personal and group interests that have proliferated among the North Korean elite. Many North Korea experts will be watching for signs that these groups and individualsâincluding one or both of Kim Jong-un's older brothersâare maneuvering to assert themselves and their interests. Despite the array of challenges, there are several forces that are likely to hold the regime together, particularly in the short run. While Kim Jong-un is untested, his chances of remaining in power and consolidating his base are far greater today than they were in 2008, when his father is believed to have suffered from a serious stroke that may have incapacitated him for a time. The two Kims have had more than two years to engineer Kim Jong-un's succession by eliminating potential opponents, elevating loyalists, securing his appointments to key posts, and obtaining China's blessing for the transition from father to son. Among Kim Jong-un's most important supporters are believed to his aunt and uncle (Kim Jong-il's sister and her husband), Kim Kyong-hui and Jang Song Taek. Both have been given important positions over the past 19 months, and Jang in particular is expected to act as a type of regent, though some have also speculated that he could try to relegate Kim Jong-un to the role of a figurehead. Before his death, the elder Kim appears to have begun to decentralize the country's decision-making structure, which had been concentrated to a remarkable degree in his hands. Thus, it is possible that a collective form of leadership will emerge, perhaps centered in the National Defense Commission, with Kim Jong-un as its face. Another possibility is that more influence shifts to the communist party (officially called the Workers' Party of Korea, or WPK), where many North Korea watchers believe Kim Jong-un has a firmer base. Many will be watching Kim Jong-il's December 28 memorial service, to see who among North Korea's elite attends and where they are ranked in importance. Indeed, the service is likely to offer a unique glimpse into North Korean elite politics, which is among the most opaque aspects in an opaque country. Additionally, the powers of the North Korean state remain significant, as indicated by the smooth way the regime handled Kim Jong-il's death. The North Korean government delayed announcing Kim Jong-il's death for more than 50 hours. (By comparison, in 1994, the government waited approximately 30 hours to announce Kim il-Sung's death.) During the delay, there are reports that the government closed some markets, partially shut down the border with China, and notified members of the ruling elite. The fact that the regime was apparently able to carry out these operations, maintain secrecy, and operate the machinery of a transition without any major difficulties to date is an indication of the continued power of the state apparatus that the new leadership has inherited.