Since the 1960s, the United States has used polar-orbiting and geostationary satellites to observe the earth and its land, ocean, atmosphere, and space environments. Polar-orbiting satellites constantly circle the earth in a nearly north-south orbit, providing global coverage of conditions that affect the weather and climate. As the earth rotates beneath it, each polar-orbiting satellite views the entire earth’s surface twice a day. In contrast, geostationary satellites maintain a fixed position relative to the earth from a high orbit of about 22,300 miles in space. Both types of satellites provide a valuable perspective of the environment and allow observations in areas that may be otherwise unreachable. Used in combination with ground, sea, and airborne observing systems, satellites have become an indispensable part of monitoring and forecasting weather and climate. For example, polar-orbiting satellites provide the data that go into numerical weather prediction models, which are a primary tool for forecasting weather days in advance—including forecasting the path and intensity of hurricanes. Geostationary satellites provide the graphical images used to identify current weather patterns and provide short-term warning. These weather products and models are used to predict the potential impact of severe weather so that communities and emergency managers can help prevent and mitigate its effects. Federal agencies are currently planning and executing major satellite acquisition programs to replace existing polar and geostationary satellite systems that are nearing the end of their expected life spans. However, these programs have troubled legacies of cost increases, missed milestones, technical problems, and management challenges that have resulted in reduced functionality and major delays to planned launch dates over time. We and others—including an independent review team reporting to the Department of Commerce and its Inspector General— have raised concerns that problems and delays with environmental satellite acquisition programs will result in gaps in the continuity of critical satellite data used in weather forecasts and warnings. According to officials at NOAA, a polar satellite data gap would result in less accurate and timely weather forecasts and warnings of extreme events, such as hurricanes, storm surges, and floods. Such degradation in forecasts and warnings would place lives, property, and our nation’s critical infrastructures in danger. The importance of having such data available was highlighted in 2012 by the advance warnings of the path, timing, and intensity of Superstorm Sandy. Given the criticality of satellite data to weather forecasts, concerns that problems and delays on the new satellite acquisition programs will result in gaps in the continuity of critical satellite data, and the impact of such gaps on the health and safety of the U.S. population, we concluded that the potential gap in weather satellite data is a high-risk area. We added this area to our High-Risk List in 2013 and it remains on the 2015 update to the High-Risk List that was issued yesterday. For over 40 years, the United States has operated two separate operational polar-orbiting meteorological satellite systems: the Polar- orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite series, which is managed by NOAA, and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP), which is managed by the Air Force. Currently, there is one operational Polar- orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (called the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership, or S-NPP) and two operational DMSP satellites that are positioned so that they cross the equator in the early morning, midmorning, and early afternoon. In addition, the government relies on data from a European satellite, called the Meteorological Operational satellite, or Metop.operational polar satellite constellation. In addition to the polar-orbiting satellites, NOAA operates GOES as a two-satellite geostationary satellite system that is primarily focused on the United States (see figure 2). The GOES-R series is the next generation of satellites that NOAA is planning; the satellites are planned to replace existing weather satellites, the first of which is due to reach the end of its useful life in 2015. The ability of the satellites to provide broad, continuously updated coverage of atmospheric conditions over land and oceans is important to NOAA’s weather forecasting operations. NOAA is responsible for GOES-R program funding and overall mission success, and has implemented an integrated program management structure with NASA for the GOES-R program. Within the program office, there are two project offices that manage key components of the GOES-R system. NOAA has delegated responsibility to NASA to manage the Flight Project Office, including awarding and managing the spacecraft contract and delivering flight-ready instruments to the spacecraft. The Ground Project Office, managed by NOAA, oversees the Core Ground System contract and satellite data product development and distribution. The program estimates that the development for all four satellites in the GOES-R series will cost $10.9 billion through 2036. In 2013, NOAA announced that it would delay the launch of the GOES-R and S satellites from October 2015 and February 2017 to March 2016 and May 2017, respectively. These are the current anticipated launch dates of the first two GOES-R satellites; the last satellite in the series is planned for launch in 2024. In September 2010, we recommended that NOAA develop and document continuity plans for the operation of geostationary satellites that include the implementation procedures, resources, staff roles, and time tables needed to transition to a single satellite, a foreign satellite, or other solution. In September 2011, the GOES-R program provided a draft plan documenting a strategy for conducting operations if there were only a single operational satellite. GAO, Geostationary Weather Satellites: Progress Made, but Weaknesses in Scheduling, Contingency Planning, and Communicating with Users Need to Be Addressed, GAO-13-597, (Washington, D.C.: Sept. 9, 2013). on the potential impact of a satellite failure and identifying timelines for implementing mitigation solutions. We subsequently assessed NOAA’s progress in implementing this recommendation in our December 2014 report and will discuss our results at today’s hearing. The JPSS program has recently completed significant development activities. For example, the program completed a major development milestone—the critical design review for the JPSS-1 mission—in April 2014. This is a significant accomplishment because the review affirms that the satellite design is appropriately mature to continue with development. Furthermore, NOAA is currently developing JPSS within its cost and schedule baselines. However, while JPSS development is still within its overall life cycle cost baseline, key components have experienced cost growth. Between July 2013 and July 2014, the total program cost estimate increased by $222 million (or 2 percent). More than half of this increase was for three instruments. Program officials cited multiple reasons for these cost increases, including technical issues, additional testing, and the purchase of new parts. If JPSS costs were to continue to grow at this rate, the program could end up costing $2 billion more than expected by 2025. Therefore, moving forward, it will be important for NOAA and NASA managers to aggressively monitor and control components that are threatening to exceed their expected costs. Also, while the launch date of the JPSS-1 satellite has not yet been affected, key components, such as the satellite’s major instruments, have encountered delays in development and testing. Figure 3 compares key planned completion dates for the JPSS-1 spacecraft and its instruments from July 2013 to their actual or planned completion dates as of July 2014. JPSS program officials provided multiple reasons for the schedule changes, including technical issues the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) instrument experienced during testing, a schedule adjustment to align with NOAA’s geostationary satellite acquisition, and the October 2013 government shutdown. These delays have caused a reduction in schedule margin prior to the JPSS-1 satellite integration and testing phase. Further, because of the technical issues experienced on ATMS, the instrument has now become the critical path for the entire JPSS-1 mission and only 1 month of schedule reserve remains until its expected delivery in March 2015. It will be important for NOAA and NASA managers to quickly resolve the instrument’s technical issues before it becomes a more serious threat to the mission schedule and launch date. In October 2013, the JPSS program office reported that a gap between the S-NPP satellite and the JPSS-1 satellite in the afternoon orbit could be as short as 3 months, which is 15 months less than NOAA estimated in 2012. However, we believe that this estimate is likely too optimistic. There are several reasons why this potential gap could occur sooner and last longer than NOAA currently anticipates. Inconsistent launch date plans: The program’s analysis that JPSS-1 will be operational by June 2017 is inconsistent with NOAA’s launch date commitment of March 2017, given that the program office estimates 6 months for on-orbit checkout and calibration/validation before the satellite data are operational. Unproven predictions about the on-orbit checkout and validation phase: The on-orbit checkout and calibration/validation phase could take longer than the program’s estimated 6 months if there are issues with the instruments or ground systems. Also, additional algorithm work may be needed after the satellite launches, which could extend the validation time frame. Exclusion of a key risk: The JPSS program’s gap assessment does not factor in the potential for satellite failures from space debris that are too small to be tracked and avoided. Thus, the S-NPP mission could end earlier than its 5-year design life, resulting in a gap period that occurs sooner and lasts longer than expected. As a result, a gap in polar satellite data may occur earlier and last longer than NOAA anticipates.