We, the Bureau, and others have observed that some of the information the Bureau collects during the census has already been gathered by other government agencies in the course of administering their programs. Accessing that information could provide the Bureau with data to help conduct the census and, in some cases, complete census forms that have missing data. Such uses of administrative records have the potential to reduce the cost of the decennial census because, for example, the Bureau would need to hire fewer temporary workers and acquire less office space and equipment to support fieldwork. Moreover, some of the information collected through administrative records could be more accurate than information the Bureau collects through traditional door-to- door follow-up methods, such as when the Bureau’s enumerators need to interview neighbors or other “proxy” respondents because they cannot reach a household member to collect needed information. While the Bureau has made some limited use of administrative records during past decennials, it plans to use them much more extensively in 2020. In its first operational plan for the 2020 Census (released October 6, 2015), the Bureau reported design decisions including the use of administrative records to identify vacant addresses in advance of follow- up field work and to enumerate nonresponding households when possible in order to reduce the need for repeated contact attempts during its nonresponse follow-up operation (NRFU). The Bureau also updated the life-cycle cost estimate for the 2020 Census to $12.5 billion (in constant 2020 dollars). This is slightly lower than the Bureau’s prior life-cycle cost estimate of $12.7 billion. We plan to assess the reliability of the new cost estimate and examine the practices the Bureau used to produce it after the Bureau makes the model and its supporting documentation available. As part of the operational plan, the Bureau also released an update of how much its fundamental redesign of the census would reduce costs in four major design areas compared to the cost of a 2020 Census conducted using the methods of the 2010 Census. Table 1 below compares the cost reduction in those four areas. The operational plan describes over 100 other preliminary design decisions related to the Bureau’s efforts to build an address list and collect census responses. Its release marks a critical turning point in the decade-long countdown to the next decennial, as the Bureau completes its early research and testing plan, and pivots toward developing operations and systems and testing them to refine the census design. Bureau officials have said they hope to use administrative records to reduce the field work involved in the most expensive census operation— NRFU, when Bureau staff traditionally knock on doors across the country at homes of people who did not respond to the census, or who were missed by census mailings. The Bureau has reported that the following three uses are key to potentially saving up to $1.4 billion compared to using traditional census methods. Identify vacant housing units. The Bureau incurs a large part of its census cost while following up at residences that did not return a census questionnaire. However, during the 2010 Census, of the 48 million housing units enumerators visited for follow up, about 14 million were vacant. One of the largest efficiency gains to the census may come simply from using administrative records to remove these vacant units from the follow-up workload. In a test in Arizona earlier this year, this use of administrative records enabled the Bureau to reduce the NRFU workload by 11 percent. Since we completed our audit work, the Bureau announced that it would still send a reminder post card to units it identified as vacant, which will cost more, but will provide any missed household one more opportunity to respond to the census. Identify and enumerate occupied nonresponding housing units. During the 2015 Census Test, the Bureau demonstrated it could use administrative records to accurately count some nonresponding occupied households if the household had administrative records meeting a certain quality threshold, without attempting any visits. In the test, the Bureau used this approach to reduce the NRFU workload by about 20 percent. Since we completed our audit work, the Bureau announced that before using administrative records to enumerate such households in 2020, it will still attempt one visit to the household. Attempting a visit will add costs, but will also provide the household one more opportunity to respond to the census. Predict the best times to complete NRFU. One of the challenges the Bureau faces when knocking on doors is reaching a household when someone is home. In the 2015 Census Test, the Bureau used demographic information, such as age, from administrative records sources in addition to information about how households had responded to other Bureau surveys in order to help determine the contact strategy for deciding if and when to interview a household. The Bureau tested each of these uses during its 2015 Census Test and plans further testing of them to refine the methods, but the Bureau has already decided to use them. In addition to the three uses the Bureau has committed to, the Bureau has identified nine additional uses of administrative records that may help further reduce cost or improve the quality of the census (see figure 1). The Bureau has not separately estimated cost savings for these nine uses, but has begun researching the feasibility of most of them. As shown in the figure, these uses would occur during various points relative to data collection. Before data collection. The Bureau is already using administrative records to validate and update the address list. The Bureau is drawing on address lists and map information from state, local, and tribal governments, in addition to information obtained from commercial sources, to update its own address list continuously throughout the decade, reducing the need for a more costly door-to-door canvassing during the 2 years prior to the census, as was done for the 2010 Census. In addition, Bureau officials reported research is about to begin on how to better use records to identify group quarters, such as dormitories, prisons, nursing homes, and homeless shelters, and to target outreach, that is, encourage cooperation of staff at these locations with the census. The Bureau historically uses special procedures to enumerate at these places, and administrative records could potentially jump start the time and effort spent getting ready for them. During data collection. The Bureau is considering using administrative records in lieu of some follow-up visits for the purpose of quality control of field work. In past decennials, the Bureau has called or sent enumerators to re-interview some respondents. Relying on administrative records could reduce fieldwork and respondent burden, or enable the Bureau to better target re-interviews of respondents. The Bureau is also researching how administrative records can be used to help process responses that do not have a census ID number on them (this activity is called non-ID processing). The Bureau may receive such responses from households that lost or never received mailings or other advance communication with an ID number from the Bureau. A test in 2015 in the Savannah, Georgia, media market area demonstrated that a large collation of administrative records from many sources was effective in helping the Bureau correct or fill in missing address information. This enabled the Bureau to better locate where those responses should be counted. The Bureau is also researching how other records may help it validate responses or the identities of those who submit responses as part of this processing. After data collection. When the Bureau still does not have information on a housing unit after collecting data during field operations, it will attempt to impute the data—as it has done since 1970. According to Bureau officials, in 2020 the Bureau will use administrative records to help improve how it imputes three related types of data: (1) whether or not a unit is occupied, (2) how many people live in the unit, and (3) the residents’ demographic characteristics, such as sex, race, and ethnicity. Finally, the Bureau is considering how administrative records might help it evaluate census accuracy. The Bureau has identified and obtained access to nearly all of the sources that it believes it needs in order to leverage all of the opportunities it has identified (see figure 2). In addition to the records already obtained, the Bureau is working to gain access to the National Directory of New Hires (NDNH), a national database of wage and employment information used for child support enforcement, and KidLink, a database from the Social Security Administration that links parent and child Social Security numbers for children born after 1998 in U.S. hospitals. Both of these databases would help the Bureau improve its ability to find historically “hard-to-count” groups, such as certain minority groups or young children. Bureau officials stated that they are examining ways to quantify the potential effect that their access to these additional sources could have on the 2020 Census. But they point out that there is value in accessing these records for the Bureau’s other statistical surveys as well, and that even if they are unable to obtain the additional records in time for the 2020 Census, they would continue pursuing them for these other purposes, as well as for use in future censuses. While the Bureau is to be commended for its efforts to expand its use of administrative records to control costs and increase accuracy, we identified actions the Bureau could take to increase its chances of success. First, as of August 2015, the Bureau had not set deadlines to determine which of its identified uses of administrative records it will or will not implement for the 2020 Census, nor had it set deadlines for determining exactly which records from which sources it will tap in support of each use it implements. Moreover, the Bureau had no deadlines against which to measure progress for obtaining access to additional sources or scheduled milestones for when key steps may need to be taken in order to integrate them within 2020 preparations. For example, the Bureau will need time to review files in order to ensure their fitness for use before the Bureau can integrate them into the census design. Earlier in October the Bureau announced time frames for several decisions related to uses of administrative records and explained that the decisions are not yet included in its integrated schedule of activities. According to our scheduling guide, assurance of program success can be increased when management relies on credible schedules containing the complete scope of activities necessary to achieve established program objectives.