U.S. attention has focused on Russia's fitful democratization since it emerged in 1991 from the collapse of the Soviet Union. Many observers have argued that a democratic Russia with free markets would be a cooperative bilateral and multilateral partner rather than an insular and hostile national security threat. At the same time, most observers have cautioned that democracy may not be easily attainable in Russia, at least in part because of a dearth of historical and cultural experience with representative institutions and modes of thought. Concerns about democratization progress appeared heightened after Vladimir Putin became president in 2000. Setbacks to democratization have included more government interference in elections and campaigns, restrictions on freedom of the media, civil as well as human rights abuses in the breakaway Chechnya region, and the forced liquidation of Russia's largest private oil firm, Yukos, as an apparent warning to other entrepreneurs not to support opposition parties or otherwise challenge government policy. Democratization faced further challenges following terrorist attacks in Russia that culminated in the deaths of hundreds of school-children in the town of Beslan in September 2004. President Putin almost immediately proposed restructuring all three branches of government and strengthening federal powers to better counter the terrorist threat to Russia. The proposed restructuring included integrating security agencies, switching to purely proportional voting for the Duma (lower legislative chamber), eliminating direct elections of the heads of federal subunits, asserting greater presidential control over the judiciary, and achieving more control over civil society by creating a "Public Chamber" consultative group of largely government-approved non-governmental organizations (NGOs). After this restructuring had been largely implemented, President Putin in his May 2006 State of the Federation address hailed it as "even[ing] out the imbalances that have arisen in the structure of the state and the social sphere." Much controversy has attended the restructuring of the political system. On the one hand, some Russian and international observers have supported the restructuring as compatible with Russia's democratization. They have accepted Putin's argument that his moves counter Chechen and international terrorists intent on destroying Russia's territorial integrity and political and economic development. On the other hand, critics of the restructuring moves have branded them as the latest of Putin's democratic rollbacks since he came to power in 2000. In a sensational move, Putin declared in April 2005 that he would not seek re-election, stating that "I will not change the constitution and in line with the constitution, you cannot run for president three times in a row." According to several observers, this declaration has spurred the maneuvering of Putin's supporters to fine tune a system of "managed democracy" (see below for definitions), if not authoritarianism, in order to gain substantial influence over electoral processes ahead of State Duma elections scheduled for December 2007 and the Russian presidential election set for March 2008. The U.S. Administration and Congress have welcomed some cooperation with Russia on vital U.S. national security concerns, including the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), strategic arms reduction, NATO enlargement, and since September 11, 2001, the Global War on Terror. At the same time, the United States has raised concerns with Russia over anti-democratic trends, warning that a divergence in democratic values could eventually harm U.S.-Russian cooperation. Following Putin's Beslan proposals, then-Secretary of State Colin Powell urged Russia not to allow the fight against terrorism to harm the democratic process, and President Bush raised concerns about "decisions ... in Russia that could undermine democracy." In the wake of Russia's cutoff of gas supplies to Ukraine in early 2006, Vice President Dick Cheney appeared to reflect an Administration consensus that authoritarianism was deepening in Russia. He stated that Russia's "government has unfairly and improperly restricted the rights of her people" and that such restrictions "could begin to affect relations with other countries." He called for Russia to "return to democratic reform." Some U.S. observers have urged circumspection in criticizing lagging democratization in Russia, lest such criticism harm U.S.-Russian cooperation on vital U.S. national security concerns. Others have urged stronger U.S. motions of disapproval, regardless of possible effects on bilateral relations. The Putin government and state-controlled media have criticized such U.S. Administration statements as "interfering in Russia's internal affairs," as not recognizing the grave threat of terrorism in Russia, and as misrepresenting sensible counter-terrorism measures as threats to democratization. This paper assesses Russia's progress in democratization, including in the areas of elections, media rights, civil society, and federalism. Four scenarios of possible future political developments are suggested—a continuation of the current situation of "managed democracy," deepening authoritarianism, further democratization, or a chaotic interlude—and evidence and arguments are weighed for each. Lastly, U.S. policy and implications for U.S. interests, congressional concerns, and issues for Congress are analyzed. Most analysts agree that modern democracy includes the peaceful change of leaders through popular participation in elections. Also, political powers are separated and exercised by institutions that check and balance each others' powers, hence impairing a tyranny of power. Democracies generally have free market economies, which depend upon the rule of law and private property rights. The rule of law is assured through an independent judicial and legal system. The accountability of government officials to the citizenry is assured most importantly through elections that are freely competed and fairly conducted. An informed electorate is assured through the government's obligation to publicize its activities (termed transparency) and the citizenry's freedom of expression. In contrast, in an authoritarian state the leadership rules with wide and arbitrary latitude in the political sphere but interferes somewhat less in economic and social affairs. The government strictly limits opposition activities, and citizens are not able to change leaders by electoral means. Rather than legitimizing its rule by appealing to an elaborate ideology, an authoritarian regime boasts to its citizenry that it provides safety, security, and order. Some theorists have delineated a political system with mixed features of democracy and authoritarianism they label "managed democracy." In a managed democracy, the leaders use government resources and manipulation to ensure that they will not be defeated in elections, although they permit democratic institutions and groups to function to a limited extent. Presidential advisor Vladislav Surkov and the pro-presidential United Russia Party have advocated use of the term "sovereign democracy," which they define as a culturally appropriate form of government that is not influenced by other countries. Russia certainly has made some progress in democratization since the Soviet period. The extent of progress, however, and the direction of recent trends, are subject to dispute. Democratization has faced myriad challenges, including former President Boris Yeltsin's violent face-off with the legislature in 1993 and recurring conflict in the breakaway Chechnya region. Such challenges, virtually all analysts agree, have hindered Russia from becoming a fully-fledged or "consolidated" democracy in terms of the above definition. Some analysts have viewed Putin as making decisions that have diverted Russia further away from democracy, but they have argued that the country is not yet fully authoritarian and may be described as a "managed democracy." Others insist that he is clearly antagonistic toward democracy, not least because he launched security operations in Chechnya that have resulted in wide scale human rights abuses and civilian casualties. The NGO Freedom House claims that Russia under Putin has suffered the greatest reversal among the post-Soviet states in democratic freedoms, and warns that the main danger to Russia's future political stability and continued economic growth is an overly repressive state. Other observers agree with Putin that stability is necessary to build democracy. He stresses that the government's first priority is to deal with terrorism and other threats to sovereignty and territorial integrity, such as corruption. Some suggest that such a "strong state" may be compatible with free market economic growth. Most analysts agree that Russia's democratic progress was uneven at best during the 1990s, and that the 2003-2004 cycle of legislative and presidential elections and subsequent elections in 2005-2006 demonstrate the increasingly uncertain status of democratization during Putin's leadership. On December 7, 2003, Russians voted to fill 450 seats in the State Duma, 225 chosen in single-member districts and 225 chosen by party lists. Nearly 1,900 candidates ran in the districts, and 23 parties fielded lists. Public opinion polls before the election showed that Putin was highly popular, and it was expected that pro-Putin parties and candidates would fare well. On election day, there was a low turnout of 56 percent and 59.685 million valid votes cast. The Putin-endorsed United Russia party won the largest shares of the party list and district votes, giving it a total of 224 seats. The ultranationalist vote was mainly shared by the newly formed pro-Putin Motherland bloc of parties and Vladimir Zhirinovskiy's Liberal Democratic Party (which usually supports the government). Candidates not claiming party affiliation won 67 district seats (most later joined the United Russia faction in the Duma). Opposition parties and candidates fared poorly. The opposition Communist Party won far fewer seats (52) than it had in 1999 (113 seats), marking its marginalization in the Duma. The main opposition liberal democratic parties (Union of Right Forces and Yabloko) failed to reach the five percent threshold for party representation in the Duma, and were virtually excluded. Election observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the Parliamentary Assembly for the Council of Europe (PACE) concluded that the Duma race was less democratic than the previous one in 1999. They highlighted the government's "extensive" aid and use of media to favor United Russia and Motherland and to discourage support and positive media coverage of the opposition parties.