Air power has played a pivotal role in America’s military force since World War I when aircraft were first used in combat. In World War II, it was indispensable to U.S. forces to achieve victory. After the war, the Department of the Navy invested in longer-range aircraft and larger aircraft carriers to provide worldwide coverage from the sea. With the proven success of air power and development of the intercontinental-range bomber, the Department of the Air Force was established in 1947, with the Air Force taking its place alongside the other three services. During the Cold War, America’s air power was a critical element of both its nuclear deterrent forces and its conventional combat forces. A massive U.S. aerospace industry developed, giving the United States a research, development, and production base that has dramatically advanced airframes, propulsion, avionics, weapons, and communications, and helped shape and broaden the role of air power in U.S. military strategy. Today the Department of Defense (DOD) has what some refer to as the “four air forces,” with each of the services possessing large numbers of aircraft. Air power includes not only fixed-wing aircraft but also attack helicopters, long-range missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles, and other assets that give the United States the ability to maintain air superiority and to project power worldwide through the air. During the Persian Gulf War, the unparalleled capabilities of these forces were demonstrated as U.S. and coalition forces dominated the conflict. Sweeping changes in the global threat environment, sizable reductions in resources devoted to defense, technological advancements in combat systems, and other factors have significantly affected DOD’s combat air power. Ensuring that the most cost-effective mix of combat air power capabilities is identified, developed, and fielded in such an environment to meet the needs of the combatant commanders is a major challenge. In October 1993, DOD reported on its bottom-up review of defense needs in the post-Cold War security environment. The review outlined specific dangers to U.S. interests, strategies to deal with the dangers, an overall defense strategy for the new era, and force structure requirements. The strategy called on the military to be prepared to fight and win two nearly simultaneous major regional conflicts, engage in smaller-scale operations, meet overseas presence requirements, and deter attacks by weapons of mass destruction. Table 1.1 shows the overall size and structure of the general purpose forces DOD determined are needed to execute the strategy and the approximate number of associated combat aircraft. DOD currently has about 5,900 such aircraft as it continues drawing down its forces. In addition to these fighter and attack aircraft, DOD has other important combat aviation elements, including over 1,500 specialized support aircraft, such as those used for refueling, command and control, reconnaissance, and suppressing enemy air defenses, and about 250 aircraft in its special operations forces. Appendix I identifies the principal aircraft, long-range missiles, and other weapons and assets that were covered by our review. Two key DOD documents that provide guidance concerning the planning for and use of combat air power are the Secretary of Defense’s Defense Planning Guidance and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff’s current National Military Strategy dated 1995. These documents build on the strategy, plans, and programs identified in the Bottom-Up Review. According to the Defense Planning Guidance and the National Military Strategy, U.S. forces, in concert with regional allies, are to be of sufficient size and capabilities to credibly deter and, if necessary, decisively defeat aggression by projecting and sustaining U.S. power during two nearly simultaneous major regional conflicts. The services’ forces are also expected to be prepared to fight as a joint team, with each service providing trained and ready forces to support the commanders in chief (CINC) of the combatant commands. U.S. air power is to be able to seize and control the skies, hold vital enemy capabilities at risk throughout the theater, and help destroy the enemy’s ability to wage war. Air power is also expected to provide sustained, precision firepower; reconnaissance and surveillance; refueling; and global lift. The ability of combat aircraft to respond quickly to regional contingencies makes them particularly important in the post-Cold War era. Both documents discuss the criticality of enhancements to existing systems and the selected modernization of forces to DOD’s ability to carry out the military strategy. Each expresses concerns about upgrading and replacing weapon systems and equipment under constrained budgets. In recognition of the costly recapitalization planned and the projected budgetary resources to support it, the Chairman’s strategy states that major modernization programs involving significant investment are to be undertaken “only where there is clearly a substantial payoff.” A new document—Joint Vision 2010—provides the military services a common direction in developing their capabilities within a joint framework. Like the guidance and strategy documents, the vision document cites the need for more efficient use of defense resources. It stresses the imperativeness of jointness—of integrating service capabilities with less redundancy in and among the services—if the United States is to retain effectiveness when faced with flat budgets and increasingly more costly readiness and modernization. The authority of the military departments to acquire air power and other assets stems from their broad legislative responsibilities to prepare forces for the effective prosecution of war (Title 10 U.S. Code). DOD Directive 5100.1, which identifies the functions of the DOD and its major components, authorizes the military departments to develop and procure weapons, equipment, and supplies essential to fulfilling their assigned functions. Under the directive, the Army’s primary functions include the preparation of forces to defeat enemy land forces and seize, occupy, and defend land areas; the Navy’s and/or Marine Corps’ functions include the preparation of forces to gain and maintain general naval supremacy and prosecute a naval campaign; and the Air Force, the preparation of forces to gain and maintain air supremacy and air interdiction of enemy land forces and communications. The Marine Corps is also expected to conduct amphibious operations. All services are authorized to develop capabilities to attack land targets through the air to accomplish their primary missions. The directive also states that the military departments are to fulfill the current and future operational requirements of the combatant commands to the maximum extent practical; present and justify their respective positions on DOD plans, programs, and policies; cooperate effectively with one another; provide for more effective, efficient, and economical administration; and eliminate duplication. The individual services have always had the primary role in weapons acquisition. In an attempt to strengthen the joint orientation of the Department, Congress enacted the Goldwater-Nichols Department of Defense Reorganization Act of 1986. This act, which amended title 10, gave the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the combatant commanders stronger roles in Department matters, including weapons acquisition. It designated the Chairman as principal military adviser to the President, the National Security Council, and the Secretary of Defense and gave him several broad authorities. For example, the Chairman is expected to provide for strategic direction of the armed forces, prepare strategic plans, perform net assessments of the capabilities of U.S. and allied armed forces compared with those of potential adversaries, and advise the Secretary on the requirements, programs, and budgets of the military departments in terms of the joint perspective. Regarding this latter responsibility, the Chairman is expected to (1) provide advice on the priorities of requirements identified by the commanders of the combatant commands, (2) determine the extent to which program recommendations and budget proposals conform with the combatant commands’ priorities, (3) submit alternative program recommendations and budget proposals within projected resource levels to achieve greater conformance with these priorities, and (4) assess military requirements for major defense acquisition programs. In addition to these responsibilities, the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 1993 directed the Chairman to examine what DOD can do to eliminate or reduce duplicative capabilities. Assisting the Chairman in providing the Secretary advice on military requirements and the programs and budgets of the military departments is the Joint Requirements Oversight Council (JROC) and the Joint Staff, which are subject to the authority, direction, and control of the Chairman. Within the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD), the Office of the Director of Program Analysis and Evaluation provides, in part, analytical support to the Secretary in the management and oversight of service programs and budgets. The overall objective of this review was to assess whether the Secretary of Defense has sufficient information from a joint perspective to help him decide whether new investments in combat air power should be made, whether programmed investments should continue to be funded, and what priority should be given to competing programs. To gain a broad perspective on the context in which these decisions are made, we sought to determine (1) how U.S. air power capabilities have changed since the end of fiscal year 1991; (2) what potential threat adversary forces pose to U.S. air power; (3) what contribution combat air power modernization programs will make to aggregate U.S. capabilities; and (4) how joint warfighting assessments are used to support the Secretary in making air power decisions. The scope of our review included (1) fighter and attack aircraft, including attack helicopters and long-range bombers equipped for conventional missions; (2) key specialized support aircraft that enhance the capability of combat aircraft; (3) munitions employed by combat aircraft; and (4) other major systems—particularly long-range missiles, theater air defense systems, and unmanned aerial vehicles—that perform missions traditionally assigned to combat aircraft. Our scope did not encompass assets dedicated primarily to airlift, such as the C-17 and V-22 aircraft, and U.S. special operations forces. Also, the potential contribution of allied forces was not considered.