Currently, DOD has five major unmanned aircraft systems in use: the Air Force’s Predator A and Global Hawk, the Marine Corps’ Pioneer, and the Army’s Hunter and Shadow. The services also have developmental efforts underway, for example, the Air Force’s Predator B, the Army and Navy’s vertical take-off and landing system, and the Army’s Warrior. Overall, DOD now has about 250 unmanned aircraft in inventory and plans to increase its inventory to 675 by 2010 and 1,400 by 2015. The 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review reached a number of decisions that would further expand investments in unmanned systems, including accelerating production of Predator and Global Hawk. It also established a plan to develop a new land-based, long-strike capability by 2018 and set a goal that about 45 percent of the future long-range strike force be unmanned. DOD expects unmanned aircraft systems to transform the battlespace with innovative tactics, techniques, and procedures as well as take on the so- called “dull, dirty, and dangerous missions” without putting pilots in harm’s way. Potential missions for unmanned systems have expanded from the original focus on intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance to limited tactical strike capabilities. Projected plans call for unmanned aircraft systems to perform persistent ground attack, electronic warfare, and suppression of enemy air defenses. Unmanned aircraft fly at altitudes ranging from below 10,000 feet up to 50,000 feet and are typically characterized by approximate altitude—“low altitude” if operating at 10,000 feet or less, “medium altitude” if flying above 10,000 but below 35,000 feet, and “high altitude” if operating above 35,000 feet. The Army’s classifies Warrior as a medium-altitude system, in the same category as its Hunter system, its Warrior prototype known as I- GNAT, and the Air Force’s Predator A. The Air Force’s Predator B is expected to operate at both medium and high altitudes. The Warrior as envisioned by the Army shares some similarities with the Air Force’s Predator A and B models. First, all three systems share the same contractor, General Atomics. Second, Predator A and Warrior are expected to be somewhat similar in physical characteristics. In particular, the build of the main fuselage, the location of fuel bays, and design of the tailspar are alike. According to Army program officials, the Predator B and Warrior are expected to share the same flight controls and avionics. Predator A and Warrior are anticipated to perform some similar missions, including reconnaissance, surveillance, and target acquisition and attack. The development of the Warrior program began in late 2001 when the Army started defining requirements for a successor to its Hunter system. In September 2004, the Army released a request for a “systems capabilities demonstration” so that companies could demonstrate the capabilities of their existing aircraft. In December 2004, the Army awarded demonstration contracts worth $250,000 each to two contractors, Northrup Grumman and General Atomics. Subsequently, the Army evaluated, among other things, the demonstrated capabilities of the competitors’ existing aircraft in relation to Warrior technical requirements. The Army did not perform a formal analysis of the alternatives comparing expected capabilities of Warrior with current capabilities offered by existing systems; rather, its rationale was that the Warrior is needed near- term for commanders’ missions and considered this competition to be a rigorous analysis of available alternatives. Based on the competition, the Army concluded that General Atomics’ proposal (based on Warrior) provided the best value solution. In August 2005, the Army awarded the system development and demonstration (SDD) contract to General Atomics. The contract is a cost plus incentive fee contract with an award fee feature. It has a base value of about $194 million, with approximately another $15 million available to the contractor in the form of incentive fees, and about an additional $12 million available as award fees. The time line in figure 1 illustrates the sequence of past and planned events for the Warrior program. The Army plans for a full Warrior system to entail 12 aircraft as well as 5 ground control stations, 5 ground data terminals, 1 satellite communication ground data terminal, 12 air data terminals/air data relays, 6 airborne satellite communication terminals, 2 tactical automatic take-off and landing systems, 2 portable ground control stations, 2 portable ground data terminals and associated ground support equipment. The Army expects to buy 1 developmental system with 17 aircraft and 11 complete production systems with a total of 132 production aircraft through 2015. However, the Army has not yet decided on the number of systems it might buy beyond that date. The Army is employing an evolutionary acquisition strategy to produce Warrior. The Army expects the current Warrior program of record to provide for immediate warfighting needs and plans to build on the capabilities of this increment as evolving technology allows. The Army has an operational requirement, approved by the Joint Requirements Oversight Council, for an unmanned aircraft system dedicated to direct operational control by Army field commanders. The Army has determined that the Warrior was the best option available to meet this operational requirement. Army program officials believe that the Predator is operationally and technically mismatched with Army needs. The Army expects Warrior to offer key technical features that will better meet Army operational needs than Predator A. According to the Army, the Predator is operationally mismatched with its division-level needs. Army program officials noted that one of the Army’s current operational difficulties with Predator is that frontline commanders cannot directly task the system for support during tactical engagements. Rather, Predator control is allocated to Theater and Joint Task Force Commands, and the system’s mission is to satisfy strategic intelligence, reconnaissance, and surveillance needs as well as joint needs. Army programmatic and requirements documents maintain that Army division commanders in the field need direct control of a tactical unmanned aircraft asset capable of satisfying operational requirements for dedicated intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, communications relay, teaming with other Army assets, and target acquisition and attack. Army program officials also indicated that Predator’s time is apportioned among various users, and the Army typically does not receive a large portion of that time. According to Warrior program documents, the Army has historically been able to draw only limited operational support from theater assets such as Predator. For example, a program office briefing noted that overall Iraq theater-level support was neither consistent nor responsive to Army needs, and that division level support was often denied or cancelled entirely. The briefing also said that the shortfall was expected to continue, even with the addition of more Predators and Global Hawks. Army program officials also told us that they expect Warrior to enhance overall force capability in ways that Predator cannot. Specifically, the Army expects Warrior to support teaming with Army aviation assets and aid these assets in conducting missions that commanders were previously reluctant to task to manned platforms. Under this teaming concept, manned assets, including the Apache helicopter, Army Airspace Command and Control system, and Aerial Common Sensor, would work jointly with Warrior to enhance target acquisition and attack capabilities. The Army plans for the manned platforms to not only receive data and video communications from Warrior but also control its payloads and flight. The Army also plans to configure Warrior for interoperability with the Army One System Ground Control Station, an Army-wide common ground control network for unmanned aircraft systems. According to Army documents, Warrior’s incorporation into this network will better support the Army ground commander by allowing control of Warrior aircraft to be handed off among ground stations, provide better battlefield coverage for Joint Forces, and ensure common operator training among unmanned aircraft systems, including the Army’s Warrior, Shadow, and Hunter and Marine Corps’ unmanned aircraft systems. Additionally, Army program officials pointed out that Warrior will be physically controlled by an enlisted soldier deployed in the theater where Warrior is being used. They contrast this with Predator, which is typically flown from a location within the continental United States by a pilot trained to fly manned aircraft. The Army believes that the Warrior design will offer key technical features to address Army operational requirements and maintains that these features will better meet its operational needs than those found on Predator A. The technical features include: multi-role tactical common data link, ethernet, heavy fuel engine, automatic take-off and landing system, more weapons, interoperability with Army One System Ground Control Station, and dual-redundant avionics. Table 1 shows the respective purpose of each technical feature, describes whether or not a particular feature is planned for Warrior and exists now on Predator A, and provides the Army’s assessment of operational impact provided by each feature. A February 2006 Warrior program office comparison of costs for Warrior and Predator A projects that Warrior’s unit cost will be $4.4 million for each aircraft, including its sensors, satellite communications, and Hellfire launchers and associated electronics. The cost comparison indicates that Predator A’s unit cost for the same elements is $4.8 million. Although the Air Force’s Predator B is planned to be more capable than Warrior in such areas as physical size and payload and weapons capacity, the Warrior program office estimates that it will have a unit cost of $9.0 million—about double the anticipated cost for Warrior. The Army’s cost estimates for the Warrior are, of course, predicated on Army plans for successful development and testing. In terms of technology maturity, design stability, and a realistic schedule, the Army has not yet established a sound, knowledge-based acquisition strategy for Warrior that is consistent with best practices for successful acquisition. Warrior is expected to rely on critical technologies that were not mature at the time of the system development and demonstration contract award in August 2005 and were still not mature in March 2006.