RS21794 -- Iraq Coalition: Public Opinion Indicators in Selected European Countries March 31, 2004 Following deadly terrorist attacks in Madrid, Spain, on March 11, 2004, Spanish voters ousted the incumbent conservative and U.S.-allied government in favor of the Socialist Party in parliamentary elections on March 14. Although many factors likely contributed to this outcome, one of them appears to have been the outgoing Spanishgovernment's strong support for U.S. policy in Iraq and contribution of Spanish forces to the U.S.-led coalition,despite widespread opposition at home to the war in Iraq. Socialist Party leader and Prime Minister-designateJoséLuis Rodriguez Zapatero has said he would uphold his campaign promise to withdraw Spanish troops from coalitionoperations in Iraq unless they become part of a U.N.-sanctioned force. Although no other European government has echoed Zapatero's position, this series of events has increased speculation that other coalition partners in Iraq may face similar pressures from their electorates, which couldundermine the ability of coalition governments to sustain their forces in Iraq for a long period of time. The Madridbombings, terrorism, and Iraq may become prominent issues for voters across Europe in the upcoming June 2004elections to the European Parliament. The United States, meanwhile, seeks to broaden international participationinstabilization operations in Iraq in order to relieve heavily deployed U.S. forces there, and as the United Statespreparesto turn over sovereignty to the Iraqis by July 2004. This report briefly examines selected public opinion indicators in key European countries that currently contribute tothe U.S.-led coalition in Iraq. Overall, polls over the past year show that Spain was no anomaly in terms of strongpublic opposition to military involvement in Iraq. Some European governments appeared to support U.S. policyinIraq in defiance of, rather than as a result of, public sentiment at home. The Bush Administration contends that thewar in Iraq has reduced the danger of global terrorism. However, a majority in public opinion surveys throughoutEurope contend that the war in Iraq has increased rather than diminished that threat. At the same time, some opinionsurveys show that public support across Europe for military operations in Iraq would increase substantially if theUnited Nations were to authorize or lead peacekeeping and reconstruction efforts. The survey data referenced in this report derive from several sources, as noted; as such, varying methodologies arereflected that may not permit cross-country comparisons. Most polls cited in this report were conducted prior totheMarch 11 Madrid terrorist attacks. Multiple country surveys are referenced at the end of the report. The United Kingdom and British Prime Minister Tony Blair in particular have been the most stalwart supporters of theU.S. case for going to war in Iraq and U.S.-led stabilization efforts. After the United States, Britain provides thelargest contingent of military forces Iraq (at a current strength of 8,200 troops) and commands a multinationaldivisionin southern Iraq. As the major combat phase of the war in Iraq was winding down in April 2003, a solid majority of the British expressed "approval of the military action in Iraq" (65%) and the "U.K.'s participation in it" (64%), according to asurvey released by the U.S. Department of State in May 2003. By the end of 2003, still two-thirds (66%) favoredthepresence of British forces serving in Iraq. (1) Nevertheless, criticism of the Blair government has grown, with many inBritain coming to believe that Blair had misled the public about the threat posed by Saddam Hussein. (2) In March 2004, the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press (henceforth, the "Pew Center"), released resultsof a multinational survey taken in February 2004 that showed increasingly negative British views on Iraq. Amongthefindings of the Pew Center's study for Britain: In response to the question, Did Britain make the right or wrong decision to use military force inIraq? -- 43% said it was the right decision, and 47% said it was the wrong decision. Has the war in Iraq helped or hurt the war on terrorism? -- 36% said it helped, 50% said ithurt, and 5% said it had no effect. (A different poll taken around the same time showed that 67% said the war inIraqincreased the threat of terrorism, 9% said it decreased the threat, and 21% said it had noeffect.) (3) Who could do the best job at helping the Iraqi people form a stable government, the U.S. and its allies or the United Nations? -- 10% said the U.S. and its allies, 82% said the U.N., 4% said both, and 2%saidneither. Italy contributes the third largest national contingent of troops to Iraq, with nearly 3,000 military and paramilitarytroops serving in the U.K.-led multinational division in the south. Following the Spanish parliamentary electionsinMarch 2004, the conservative Italian government under Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi pledged to keep Italiantroops in Iraq. Berlusconi also expressed steadfast support for the Italian military role in Iraq after a November 2003suicide bomb attack on coalition forces in Iraq killed nearly 20 Italian troops, the largest single number of Italianmilitary casualties since World War II. In contrast, Italian center-left opposition party leaders have recently saidthatthey would support an end to Italy's military role in Iraq. (4) In April 2003, the Italian public seemed split on the war in Iraq. According to one poll, 55% disapproved of the war,compared with 42% who expressed support. At the same time, 55% approved of the Italian government's decisiontoopen Italian bases and airspace to coalition forces. (5) Italian polls through the rest of 2003 and early 2004 showed a consistently even split in Italian public opinion betweenthose in favor of or against withdrawing Italian troops from Iraq, with a slightly greater percentage in favor ofwithdrawal. However, polls taken after the November 2003 suicide attacks against Italian personnel in Iraqsuggesteda growing resolve to see through Italy's commitment to Iraqi stabilization rather than pull out. (6) Spain's announcement after the March 11 Madrid attacks that it would withdraw its troops from Iraq has appeared toinfluence public opinion in Italy. In a mid-March poll that asked, Do you favor or oppose a decision similartoSpain's to withdraw troops by June 30? , 67% said they were in favor versus 26% opposed. (7) A February 2004 poll from AP/Ipsos showed results in Italy similar to those in Britain on a few related questions,including: In response to the question, Has the military action in Iraq increased, decreased, or had no effect on the threat of terrorism? -- 65% said it increased the threat, 6% said it decreased the threat, 20% saidit hadno effect, and 9% said they were unsure. Poland has commanded a multinational peacekeeping division in central Iraq since late summer 2003 and contributesabout 2,500 troops to the peacekeeping operation. In the aftermath of the March 2004 Madrid terrorist attacks,Polishleaders have also pledged to keep Polish forces in Iraq "as long as needed," although President AleksanderKwasniewski publicly criticized apparent intelligence discrepancies regarding Saddam Hussein's presumed arsenalofweapons of mass destruction. Polish officials and the public at large have become increasingly concerned about thepotential for terrorist attacks at home. In addition, after the recent announcement by embattled Polish PrimeMinisterLeszek Miller that he would resign in May 2004, Polish policy on Iraq is likely to come into greater play as apoliticalissue as a new government is formed, or if early elections are held. A coalition partner in the center-left governmenthas called for a timetable for the withdrawal of Polish troops from current military operations in Iraq. The Polish polling company CBOS has run regular surveys of Poland's participation in Iraq operations. Their pollingresults have shown moderately varying levels of support for and opposition to Polish troop involvement in Iraq. Ingeneral, a slightly greater share of Poles have opposed Polish troops serving with multinational stabilization forcesinIraq. An early March 2004 poll showed that 42% of Poles backed Poland's involvement in Iraq while 53% wereopposed. A November 2003 surveyed showed that 75% of those polled said they feared Poland would become the target of aterrorist attack, several months before the Madrid bombings. (8) As noted above, the former Spanish government's staunchly pro-U.S. position on Iraq had become a prominent electoral issue even before Madrid was rocked by terrorist bombs on March 11. Spain currently has about 1,300troops serving in the Polish-led division in central Iraq. At the start of the war in Iraq in March 2003, polls showed that up to 90% of Spaniards opposed the U.S.-led war. The extent of Spanish disapproval exceeded all other major European countries, including those whose governmentsopposed the war, such as France and Germany. In the run-up to the March 2004 parliamentary elections in Spain, but before the March 11 terrorist attacks in Madrid,opinion polls showed that the party of former Prime Minister Aznar was still slightly ahead of the Socialistopposition,despite no evidence of increasing support for Aznar's policies in Iraq or suggestion that Aznar's successor as partyleader would change course on Iraq. Widespread predictions of a conservative victory (prior to March 11) suggestthatthe Iraq issue alone would probably not have determined the election outcome. Rather, the bombings themselvescoupled with the Aznar government's early response to them (including its mistaken charge against the Spanishterrorist group ETA) appear to account for the late surge among Spanish voters for the Socialists.