Thorough and comprehensive planning and preparation are crucial to the ultimate cost-effectiveness of any large, long-term project, particularly one with the scope, magnitude, and immutable deadlines of the decennial census. Indeed, the Bureau’s past experience has shown that the lack of proper planning can increase the costs and risks of downstream operations. Moreover, sound planning is critical to obtaining congressional support and funding because it helps demonstrate that the Bureau has chosen the optimal design given various trade-offs and constraints and that it will effectively manage operations and control costs. However, Congress, GAO, the Department of Commerce Inspector General, and even the Bureau itself have noted how the 2000 Census was marked by poor planning, which unnecessarily added to the cost, risk, and controversy of the last national head count. For example, our earlier work, and that of the Department of Commerce Inspector General, reported that in planning the 2000 Census, the Bureau, among other shortcomings, did not involve key operations staff in the initial design phases; did not translate key performance goals into operational, measurable terms that could be used as a basis for planning; did not develop and document a design until mid-decade; and initially failed to provide sufficient data to stakeholders on the likely effects of its initiatives for addressing the key goals for the census— reduced costs and improved accuracy and equity. Planning weaknesses were not limited to the 2000 Census. In fact, a variety of problems plagued the planning of the 1990 Census. To help prevent the Bureau from repeating those mistakes as it plans the 2010 Census, in our October 2002 report, we recommended that the Secretary of Commerce direct the Bureau to provide comprehensive information backed by supporting documentation in its future funding requests for planning and development activities, including, but not limited to, specific performance goals for the 2010 Census and information on how the Bureau’s programs would contribute to those goals; detailed information on program feasibility, priorities, and potential key implementation issues and decision milestones; and performance measures. The consequences of a poorly planned census are high given the billions of dollars spent on the enterprise and the importance of collecting quality data. The Constitution requires a census as a basis for apportioning seats in the House of Representatives. Census data are also used to redraw congressional districts, allocate billions of dollars in federal assistance to state and local governments, and provide information for many other public and private sector purposes. As agreed with your offices, our objectives for this report were to review the Bureau’s current plans for the 2010 Census and the extent to which they might address shortcomings with the 2000 Census, analyze the Bureau’s cost estimates, and assess the rigor of the Bureau’s 2010 planning process. To achieve these three objectives, we interviewed officials from the Bureau’s Decennial Management Division and other units involved with planning the 2010 Census. We also reviewed relevant design and budget documents as well as our prior work and that of the Department of Commerce Inspector General, on planning the 2000 and earlier censuses. We also reviewed reports by the National Academy of Sciences on planning the 2010 Census. We did not independently verify the cost information the Bureau provided. To help determine the key elements for successful project planning, we reviewed a number of guides to project management and business process reengineering. Our work was performed from January through September 2003 in accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards. We requested comments on a draft of this report from the Secretary of Commerce and the Director of the Office of Management and Budget. On November 6, 2003, we received the Secretary’s written comments on the draft (see app. I). On October 14, 2003, the Director of OMB forwarded OMB’s comments on the draft (see app. II). They are addressed in the Agency Comments and Our Evaluation section of this report. In designing the 2010 Census, Bureau officials had four principal goals in mind: (1) increase the relevance and timeliness of census long-form data, (2) reduce operational risk, (3) increase the coverage and accuracy of the census, and (4) contain costs. The goals were a direct response to problems the Bureau experienced in conducting the 2000 Census, such as untimely long-form data; inaccurate maps; coverage difficulties; and expensive, labor-intensive, and paper-laden field data collection. The Bureau recognized that its traditional approach to counting the population was insufficient for meeting these four objectives. In its place, the Bureau developed what it believes is a paradigm shift to taking the census, basing its reform efforts on three interrelated components the Bureau refers to as a “three-legged stool.” The mainstay of a successful census is an accurate address list and its associated maps. The Bureau uses MAF and TIGER to provide (1) maps for field operations and data reference, (2) the geographic location of every structure, (3) address lists for the decennial census, and (4) names and codes of entities for data tabulation and data for use by the commercial geographic information systems industry. The Bureau’s experience in conducting the 2000 Census highlighted the need to update and modernize MAF/TIGER prior to 2010. For example, the centerlines of streets in TIGER did not accurately reflect their true geographic locations, which could cause houses to be placed in the wrong census blocks. Also, according to the Bureau, the 1980s software used to develop TIGER is now outdated and cumbersome to update. To fix these and other problems, the Bureau launched the MAF/TIGER Enhancements Program (MTEP) as part of the 2010 Census modernization efforts. Its objectives include correcting the locations of each MAF address, street, and other map developing and deploying a new MAF/TIGER processing environment; expanding and encouraging geographic intergovernmental partnership programs; implementing the Community Address Updating System (CAUS), an initiative to partner with local governments to update MAF data; and initiating quality assurance evaluation activities. The Bureau estimates the total cost for these five objectives to be $536 million. According to Bureau officials, while some elements of MAF will be improved as part of the overall MAF/TIGER enhancements program, the primary focus of the effort is on TIGER modernization and data correction. This modernization program will not reengineer the MAF process. ACS is intended to be a monthly survey of 250,000 households that would replace the long form used in past decennial censuses. According to the Bureau, the benefits of ACS include (1) more timely long-form data at detailed geographic levels that would be as accurate as subnational annual data from existing surveys, such as the Current Population and American Housing Surveys, and (2) the ability to improve the accuracy of the decennial census population counts by eliminating the long-form questionnaire. The ACS data will be published annually for geographic areas with populations over 65,000; as a 3-year average for geographic areas with populations of 20,000 to 65,000; and as a 5-year average for geographic areas with populations under 20,000. According to the Bureau, because of the larger sample size associated with long-form data, the annual and 3- year average data will be significantly less accurate than the long-form data. The 5-year data would be about as accurate as the long form. The Bureau believes that eliminating the long form will result in a number of benefits to decennial data collection and general field operations. For example, according to the Bureau, the reduction in paper will enable it to process data with three data capture centers instead of the four centers used during Census 2000. The Bureau also would not need as many local census offices, thereby allowing it to reduce the rolls of clerical and administrative staff. According to the Bureau, a short-form-only census also allows the Bureau to use such technology as handheld mobile computing devices so that enumerators can locate and update data on housing units, help conduct interviews, transmit data directly to the data capture centers, and receive regularly updated field assignments. The devices will be linked to the satellite-based Global Positioning System (GPS) to enable field workers to locate addresses more precisely and efficiently. The Bureau also plans to incorporate changes that are not dependent on ACS and MAF/TIGER. For example, the Bureau plans to expand the respondents’ ability to complete their questionnaires via the Internet. As shown in table 1, the Bureau’s three-legged stool strategy is generally aligned with three of its four key goals for the 2010 Census and, if successful, could put the Bureau on track toward achieving them. Less clear is how the Bureau will achieve its goal of reducing operational risk using its current plan. Although the Bureau’s position that early testing will enable it to identify and correct flaws is both a common sense business practice and supported by its past experience (assuming its testing program is adequately designed), as described below, the operational and other hurdles associated with successfully implementing the three-legged stool actually introduce new risks and challenges. This does not necessarily mean that the Bureau’s design is flawed. To the contrary, the obstacles to a cost-effective head count call for the Bureau to consider bold and innovative initiatives, and these are not risk free. At the same time, given the enormity of the census and all of its complexities, the three-legged stool by itself will not automatically guarantee the successful accomplishment of the Bureau’s goals. Our work on transforming agencies into high-performing organizations has underscored the importance of an agency’s leadership and core business practices. Critical success factors include, among others, effective communication strategies to ensure coordination, synergy, and integration; strategic planning; aligning the agency’s organization to be consistent with the goals and objectives established in the strategic plan; and effective performance, financial, acquisition, and information technology management. In all, the Bureau faces at least three key challenges. Among the more significant challenges the Bureau faces is securing congressional approval for its proposed approach.