The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 (P.L. No. 104-193) (PRWORA) made sweeping changes to national welfare policy. Principally, these reforms gave states the flexibility to design their own programs and the strategies necessary for achieving program goals, including how to move welfare recipients into the workforce. But because the act also changed the way in which federal funds for welfare programs flow to the states, most of the program’s fiscal risks also shifted to the states. PRWORA created the TANF block grant, a fixed federal funding stream that replaced the AFDC and related programs in which federal funding matched state spending and increased automatically with caseload. Under AFDC, which entitled eligible families to aid, the federal funding was largely open-ended so that if a state experienced caseload and related cost increases, federal funds would increase with state funds to cover expenditures for the entire caseload. This open-ended federal commitment provided that financing for every dollar spent on these programs was shared by the federal government and the states, thereby limiting the states’ exposure to escalating costs. In contrast, the TANF block grant eliminated the federal entitlement to aid. The federal government provides a fixed amount of funds regardless of any changes in state spending or the number of people the programs serve. While the states must also provide a fixed level of funds from their own resources—their maintenance of effort (MOE) —they are now responsible for meeting most of the costs associated with any increase in caseload on their own. How they plan to manage this fiscal risk is what I refer to in this testimony as contingency planning. In this new welfare partnership, it is tempting to suggest that since welfare reform devolved decisions regarding eligibility and program services to the states, the potential volatility of the caseload is no longer a federal concern. However, in light of both federal requirements and their own fiscal limitations, states will be challenged during a downturn to maintain or increase state funds for benefits when they are most needed. States’ decisions regarding who to serve, for how long, and with what services will surely depend on how much flexibility they have with the resources— state and federal—that are available to finance their welfare programs. Although considerable uncertainties exist about the impacts of downturns, the potential cyclical nature of program costs as well as the fiscal constraints states face in responding to hard times heightens the importance of fiscal planning. Helping states maintain their programs was indeed recognized as a federal interest by Congress when it included the Contingency Fund and Loan Fund—mechanisms for states to gain access to additional federal funds—in TANF. It is unclear what impact a major economic downturn or recession will have on welfare participation given the significant reforms in national welfare policy. Recent studies have tried to establish a link between caseload trends and certain macroeconomic indicators in part to determine how sensitive welfare programs might be to changes in the economy. While the research literature generally suggests that caseloads may very well increase in an economic downturn, there is substantial uncertainty regarding the extent of the impact. These studies point to the variety of other factors affecting caseload levels, particularly with the advent of welfare reform. For example, a 1999 Council of Economic Advisors (CEA) report suggests that a 1 percent increase in the unemployment rate could produce a 5 to 7 percent increase in welfare caseloads. However, this same study noted that changes in family structure and welfare policies can significantly mitigate the impact of an economic downturn on caseloads. In fact, the recent caseload drop was at least partly due to reforms ushered in by TANF—the study suggests that about one-third of the caseload reduction from 1996 through 1998—independent of the strong economy. Just as the reforms may have prompted reduced caseloads during times of economic expansion, greater emphases on work implies a tighter link to work and hence the economy, making TANF more sensitive to an economic downturn than AFDC. On the other hand, the reforms may pose significant disincentives for people to return to the welfare rolls or to apply even if they are eligible during downturns. For example, PRWORA imposes a 5-year lifetime limit on federal assistance on individuals receiving on going assistance; many may try other options first before returning to the welfare rolls. In addition, many states now offer a variety of work supports such as child care, transportation subsidies, and an earned income tax credit (EITC) to families not receiving cash assistance. These supports may be enough to allow earnings from even a part-time job to support a family without returning to the cash assistance rolls. Budgetary stress caused by caseload volatility may be compounded by the limitations placed on most states by constitutional or statutory requirements to balance their general fund budgets. During a fiscal crisis, state policymakers face difficult choices regarding whom to serve, for how long, and with what services. But more important to the discussion today is that each of these “hard choices” must be financed in the context of fiscal limitations—including legislative restrictions, constitutional balanced budget mandates, or conditions imposed by the bond market— on state’s ability to increase spending, especially in times of fiscal stress. For example, revenues may come in lower than expected during an economic downturn and a state’s enacted budget can fall into deficit. State balanced budget requirements often motivate states to both reallocate resources within their budgets and cut program spending or increase taxes during recessions. Such difficulties, I am sure, come as no surprise to many of the members of this Subcommittee who have had to make many of these difficult choices while serving in state legislative bodies. For these reasons prudent fiscal planning, especially contingency budgeting for a fiscal “rainy day,” becomes particularly important. In a fiscal crisis, a state’s need to cut spending or increase revenues can be alleviated if it has accumulated surplus balances in rainy day funds—these surpluses may be used to cover a given year’s deficit. However, unless there are reserves specifically earmarked for low-income families, welfare programs will have to compete with other state priorities for any of the rainy day funds. Finding the right balance between saving and investing resources in programs that help people make the transition from welfare to work continues to be one of the main challenges for states as they develop strategies to address the needs of low-income families. To set aside reserves for future welfare costs, states have two options: they can save federal TANF funds and/or they can save their own funds. However, states noted significant disincentives to save associated with both of these options. State officials told us that there is concern that accumulating unspent TANF balances might signal that the funds are not needed and that they have been under considerable pressure to spend their TANF balances more quickly to avoid the accumulation of large unspent balances in the U.S. Treasury. States have accumulated a portion of their own funds in general purpose rainy day funds, but welfare would have to compete with other claims for these dollars when these dollars are released from state treasuries. Under TANF, the amount of each state’s block grant was based on the amount of federal AFDC funds spent by the state when caseloads and spending were at historic highs. Because caseloads have fallen so dramatically, generally states have been able to reap the fiscal benefits of welfare reform by parlaying abundant federal resources into new programs and savings. Any federal funds they choose to reserve must remain at the U.S. Treasury until the states need them for low-income families. As of September 30, 2000 states reported leaving $9 billion in unspent TANF funds at the U.S. Treasury; this amounts to 14.5 percent of the total TANF funds awarded since 1996. Although many might view these balances as a de facto rainy day fund for future welfare costs, in fact there is probably less here than meets the eye. First, as we will discuss in more detail, the data reported by the states is misleading. Second, the reported balances themselves vary greatly among the states, suggesting that some states may not be as prepared to address the fiscal effects an economic downturn may have on their welfare programs without additional federal assistance while others may have saved substantially more than they might need. For example, some states report spending all their federal funds—essentially holding nothing in reserve—while others report accumulated reserves totaling more than their annual block grants. For example, Wyoming reports that nearly 70 percent of the TANF funds it has been awarded since 1997 remain unspent whereas Connecticut reports spending all of its TANF funds. States do not report unspent balances in a consistent manner making it difficult to ascertain how much of these balances is truly uncommitted and available for future contingencies. Therefore, federal policymakers lack reliable information to help assess states’ plans for economic contingencies, whether the levels of available funds are adequate, and whether all states have access to these funds. Department of Health and Human Services’ (HHS) regulations require that if a state has allocated a portion of its TANF grant to a rainy day fund, the state should report these balances as unobligated. But, state rainy day funds for welfare programs represent only a portion of the total reported unobligated balances. These balances can represent funds the state has saved for a rainy day, funds for which the state has made no spending plans, or funds the state has committed for activities in future years. For example, in developing a budget for a new child care program, officials in Wisconsin assumed that once the program was fully subscribed it would require all available resources—including any unobligated TANF funds from previous fiscal years.