To determine why the Erie WSO was spun down before completion of the Secretary of Commerce’s report on 32 areas of concern, we analyzed documents that described the spin-down and reviewed the Secretary’s report. We also discussed the timeline of these events with NWS officials. To determine what weather services were provided before and after the Erie office was spun down, we reviewed NWS site implementation plans for the Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Central Pennsylvania weather offices, and interviewed former employees of the Erie WSO and officials at each of the three WFOs. We also discussed the services provided and concerns raised about the quality and types of services with (1) members of Save Our Station, a group dedicated to saving the Erie WSO, (2) Erie television station meteorologists, (3) the National Air Traffic Controllers Association safety representative at Erie International Airport, (4) officials at Presque Isle State Park, Erie, (5) the officer in charge of the U.S. Coast Guard Station in Erie, and (6) emergency management officials and representatives of emergency volunteer organizations, such as Skywarn, in each of the nine counties that constituted the Erie WSO warning area. We reviewed NWS’ responses to concerns raised. We identified safety concerns raised regarding the weather services provided at the Erie airport and obtained NWS’ responses to these concerns through interviews with the National Air Traffic Controllers Association safety representative at Erie International Airport, the manager of the Aviation Weather Requirements Division, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and NWS officials. To identify concerns raised about small-craft advisories on Lake Erie, we interviewed (1) officials at Presque Isle State Park, (2) the officer in charge of the U.S. Coast Guard station in Erie, (3) the commander of the Greater Erie Boating Association, and (4) members of Save Our Station. We reviewed NWS documents relating to aviation weather and the small-craft advisories on Lake Erie and obtained NWS’ responses to safety concerns. To determine if reliable statistical or other evidence existed that addressed degradation of service, we reviewed NWS verification statistics for severe weather events in the nine counties included in the Erie WSO county warning area prior to and after spin-down of the Erie office. We discussed the methodology and process used to develop these statistics, and their reliability, with NWS officials. In addition, we discussed NWS verification statistics and studies with a professor emeritus and an associate professor of meteorology at Pennsylvania State University and also with the chairperson of the Modernization Transition Committee. Further, we reviewed available NWS lake-effect snow study reports. We interviewed the NWS Eastern region team responsible for the lake-effect snow study and the director of the Office of Meteorology at NWS headquarters. In discussions with representatives of Save Our Station, county emergency management directors, and volunteer organizations, we obtained specific examples of weather events that these individuals believed demonstrated evidence of degradation of service. In addition, we reviewed the National Research Council (NRC) report on NWS modernization and the Secretary’s report on 32 areas of concern, with specific reference to radar coverage. To understand the ability of NWS’ new radars and other data tools available to forecasters to provide adequate coverage for severe weather event warnings and lake-effect snow, we discussed this topic with NWS officials and the study director of NRC, the chairperson of the Modernization Transition Committee, a member of the Secretary’s report team who was the acknowledged expert on NWS radar, the former chairperson of NRC’s Modernization Committee (who is also a professor emeritus of meteorology), and an associate professor of meteorology at Pennsylvania State University. We performed our work at NWS headquarters in Silver Spring, Maryland; at the NWS Eastern region in Bohemia, New York; at the Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Central Pennsylvania WFOs; and at the Erie WSO. In addition, we conducted telephone interviews with emergency management officials and emergency volunteers in the Erie WSO county warning area. We performed our work from April to August 1997, in accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards. As agreed with your offices, we did not assess the adequacy of the NWS responses to identified concerns, and we did not assess the adequacy of reports discussed in this report. The Secretary of Commerce provided written comments on a draft of this report. These comments are discussed at the end of this report and are reprinted in appendix II. NWS began a nationwide modernization program in the 1980s to upgrade observing systems, such as satellites and radars, and design and develop advanced forecaster computer workstations. The goals of the modernization are to achieve more uniform weather services across the nation, improve forecasts, provide better detection and prediction of severe weather and flooding, permit more cost-effective operations through staff and office reductions, and achieve higher productivity. As part of its modernization program, NWS plans to shift its field office structure from 52 Weather Service Forecast Offices and 204 WSOs, to one with 119 WFOs. NWS field offices provide basic weather services such as forecasts, severe weather warnings, warning preparedness, and—where applicable—aviation and marine forecasts. Warnings include “short-fused”—events such as tornadoes, flash floods, and severe storms—and “long-fused”—events such as gales and heavy snow. NWS broadcasts forecasts and warnings over the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Weather Radio. NWS offices transmit hourly weather updates and severe weather warnings as they are issued on hundreds of NOAA Weather Radio stations around the country. Warning preparedness includes coordinating with local emergency management, law enforcement agencies, and the media on notification of and response to severe weather events, and training volunteer weather observers to collect and report data under a program commonly called Skywarn. NWS relies heavily on supplemental data provided by Skywarn volunteers’ reports on severe weather events. Under NWS’ restructuring plan, the Erie WSO is slated for closure and has been spun down operationally. When fully functioning, this office’s primary role was to provide severe weather warnings to nine counties in northwestern Pennsylvania, operate an on-site radar, and take surface-condition weather observations. Under the NWS field office restructuring, responsibility for Erie’s nine counties is divided among three WFOs: Erie and Crawford counties are served by the Cleveland WFO; Venango and Forest counties are served by the Pittsburgh WFO; and Cameron, Elk, McKean, Potter, and Warren counties are served by the Central Pennsylvania WFO (located at State College, Pennsylvania).Figures 1 and 2 present maps of the premodernized and modernized office structures for the northwestern Pennsylvania area. Under the field office restructuring, the three offices assuming coverage responsibility for Erie’s nine counties have been in the process of installing new systems and equipment, such as new radars, and training staff in using the new technologies. In addition, each office taking on part of Erie’s former responsibilities communicated modernization and restructuring changes with the newly-assumed counties’ emergency response community, volunteer weather observers, the media, and the public. Once sufficient systems and staff were in place, the three WFOs—Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Central Pennsylvania—began assuming responsibility for their respective counties. Erie gradually phased out its routine radar operation; it was responsible for augmenting ASOS until October 1996 when FAA took over responsibility for this function. Two other NWS changes affected the Erie area, but were not part of the spin-down or required for consideration in making an office closure certification; these changes affected the number and type of forecasts issued and the area covered by the forecasts. First, in both the premodernized and modernized environments, the 2-day forecast is broken into four 12-hour periods. However, with access to improved, real-time data from new technology—primarily the new radars implemented as part of the modernization—NWS in 1994 added a short-term forecast, called the Nowcast, which is a 6-hour forecast. The second change NWS implemented during modernization was a reduction in the area covered by its zone forecast. Before modernization, forecast zones (i.e., the areas for which a particular forecast was issued) could include several counties as well as specific localized forecasts for high-population areas. In October 1993, NWS reduced the size of its zones to single counties to allow forecasters to take advantage of improved data and make more specific forecasts and warnings. Because of this ability to be more specific, most NWS areas discontinued the localized forecasts for high-population areas. The Weather Service Modernization Act requires that before any office may be closed, the Secretary of Commerce must certify to the Congress that closing the field office will not degrade service to the affected area. This certification must include (1) a description of local weather characteristics and weather-related concerns that affect the weather services provided within the service area, (2) a detailed comparison of the services provided within the service area and the services to be provided after such action, (3) a description of recent or expected modernization of NWS operations that will enhance services in the area, (4) identification of areas within a state that will not receive coverage (at an elevation of 10,000 feet or below) by the modernized radar network, (5) evidence, based upon a demonstration of modernized NWS operations, used to conclude that services will not be degraded from such action, and (6) any report of the Modernization Transition Committee that evaluates the proposed certification.