The MAF is a data file that contains a list of all known living quarters in the United States and Puerto Rico. The Bureau uses the MAF to support the decennial census as well as the American Community Survey and other ongoing demographic surveys. The MAF contains address information, census geographic location codes, and source and history data. In conjunction with the MAF, the TIGER contains spatial geographical information that allows information from the MAF to be mapped. For the 2010 Census, the Bureau updated the MAF through a complete address canvassing that verified virtually every existing MAF address and added new addresses and deleted those that no longer exist. While full address canvassing helped ensure the accuracy of the address list, we believe it was also very costly. According to Bureau decision documents leading up to the 2010 Census, the Bureau canceled planned research on the feasibility of targeting its canvassing when prioritizing its research agenda early in the decade given its funding levels. As part of the Bureau’s effort to conduct the 2020 Census at a cost lower than the 2010 Census, the Bureau is researching the feasibility of conducting targeted address canvassing, verifying addresses in only select areas that are more likely to require updates to the address list. To support targeted address canvassing, the Bureau plans to increase its reliance on other previously used sources of updates, including U.S. Postal Service files, commercial database files, and significant input from state and local governments. For example, GSS-I is working to allow government agencies at all levels to more regularly share and update their address lists with the Bureau throughout the decade (rather than solely 2 years prior to the decennial, as had been the case in prior decennial censuses) so that fewer areas need to be fully canvassed. The life cycle for 2020 Census preparation is divided into five phases, as illustrated in figure 1. The Bureau intends to use the early research and testing phase through fiscal year 2015 to develop a proposal for conducting targeted address canvassing that considers both cost and quality implications. By the end of the early research and testing phase, the Bureau plans to complete decisions about preliminary operational designs rather than continuing critical research and testing until the end of the decade as it did for the 2010 Census. The Bureau faces legally mandated deadlines for delivering census tabulations. Effective scheduling is critical for ensuring that the Bureau adheres to a timeline that meets these deadlines. The Bureau relies on schedules to help monitor progress of its many interdependent activities. The schedules are essential to help manage the risks to preparing and implementing a successful decennial census. Certain dates within the schedule could be subject to change or activities may be canceled as a result of time or budget constraints. As dates change from the original schedule or there are significant changes to the work planned, there could be an associated increase in risk as the Bureau may have less time than originally planned to complete future activities in time to make decisions needed to execute the 2020 Census. We determined that a schedule not only provides a road map for systematic execution of a program, but also provides a means by which to gauge progress, identify and address potential problems, and promote accountability. In the GAO Schedule Assessment Guide,four characteristics of a reliable schedule. A schedule should be: Comprehensive: The schedule should identify all activities and resources necessary to accomplish the project. The schedule should cover the scope of work to be performed so that the full picture is available to managers. Well constructed: Activities should be logically sequenced and critical activities that would affect the timelines of the schedule should be identified. Credible: All schedules should be linked to a complete master schedule for managers to reference and analyzed for how risk impacts the outcome of the schedule. Controlled: There should be a documented process for changes to the schedule so that the integrity of the schedule is assured. For a schedule to be reliable, it must substantially or fully meet all criteria for these four characteristics. These characteristics and their criteria are described in more detail in appendix II. We found that the Bureau’s 2020 Research and Testing and GSS-I schedules exhibit some of the characteristics of a reliable schedule, yet important weaknesses remain. Each of the schedules substantially met one of the four characteristics (controlled) and minimally or partially met the other three characteristics (comprehensive, well constructed, and credible) (see table 1). Examples of the extent to which these characteristics were met are provided below. For a more detailed explanation, see appendix III. The Bureau is using a work breakdown structure to guide the activities of the 2020 Research and Testing and GSS-I schedules. A work breakdown structure defines in detail the work necessary to accomplish a program’s objectives. However, not all activities listed in the work breakdown structure are included in the 2020 Research and Testing and GSS-I schedules. For example, in the GSS-I schedule, 20 of the 28 projects have very few activities in them, indicating a lack of detail. Additionally, two MAF-related projects in the 2020 Research and Testing schedule, the MAF Business Rules Improvement project and the Frame Extract Evaluation project, do not have activities assigned to them. If research activities—or any other activities relevant to developing the MAF—are not listed in a schedule, managers may not be able to readily identify causes of delay. According to the Bureau, the schedules are still evolving, these two projects have not yet started or been staffed, and activities and detail will continue to be added to the schedule. For both schedules, the Bureau appeared to record reasonable durations for most activities, helping to ensure that managers can understand the time activities are expected to take and can hold staff who are executing these activities accountable for meeting deadlines. However, neither schedule included information about what levels of resources are required to complete the planned work. Information on resource needs and availability in each work period assists with forecasting the likelihood that activities will be completed as scheduled. Bureau officials stated that they hope to begin the exercise of identifying the resources needed for each activity in both schedules by early 2014 and are waiting for decisions and guidance from the Bureau’s effort to standardize cost estimation practices enterprise-wide. In 2012 we recommended, and the Bureau agreed, that the Bureau establish and communicate a timeline for all enterprise activity However, the Bureau so that decennial managers can plan accordingly.has not yet produced this timeline. In both of the schedules, the Bureau logically linked many of the activities in a sequence. This helps staff identify next steps as they progress through MAF development activities and helps managers identify the impact of changes in one activity on subsequent activities. Yet in both schedules, the Bureau did not identify the preceding and following activity for a number of activities (20 percent for the GSS-I schedule and 9 percent for the 2020 Research and Testing schedule). Scheduling staff were unable to explain why this information was missing. Without this logic, the effect of a change in one activity on future activities cannot be seen in the schedule. For example, in the GSS-I schedule, the “delivery of the targeted address canvassing recommendation report” to managers has no predecessor. According to the Bureau, this report is to outline the research findings, impacts, operational considerations, and benefits of conducting a targeted address canvassing. For those activities that lack predecessors in the schedule, the real effects of changes or delays in preceding activities would not be visible in the schedule, potentially resulting in unforeseen delays in the recommendation report. The Bureau used a large number of constraints which, if used inappropriately, can affect the reliability of the schedule. Activities for which constraints would be justified are Census Day and the delivery of the Apportionment Count, because they have legally mandated deadlines. But, for example, the Bureau also placed a constraint on the delivery of a draft targeted address canvassing report. Such an activity would likely not need a constraint because delays in preceding activities could affect the actual timing of the delivery of the draft report. Placing a constraint on this type of activity would mask in the schedule the effects of any changes or delays that would affect the true delivery date. While our schedule guide states that documenting the justification for constraints is important, the Bureau has not provided justifications in the schedule for its use of constraints. The Bureau told us that justifications are in meeting notes and e-mails, rather than the schedule. If this information is not included in the schedule, the justification for constraints remains unclear to those who did not have access to the meeting notes or e-mails. Also, leaving constraints within the schedule beyond when the schedule is being tested can make the schedule unreliable for other purposes. Additionally, inappropriately used constraints make it difficult to identify the schedules’ “critical path”—the sequence of steps needed to achieve the end goal that, if they slip, could negatively affect the overall project completion date. The absence of a critical path or a poorly constructed one calls into question the reliability of the calculated schedule dates, such as estimates of when research results will be available. When certain constraints are placed on an activity, this can automatically trigger the schedule software to place an activity on the calculated critical path when it might otherwise not be. Because the Bureau used so many constraints and the schedule is missing logic about preceding and following activities, it is possible that the calculated critical path includes activities that are not necessarily germane to the true critical path. Eliminating the unnecessary constraints and including additional logic would provide a more accurate picture of the degree of criticality in the schedule. Until the Bureau can produce a true critical path, it will not be able to provide reliable timeline estimates of effects of schedule changes. This undermines the Bureau’s ability to focus on activities that will have detrimental effects on the progress of designing targeted address canvassing and other 2020 Census decisions. Finally, a critical path with so many activities appearing on it is not useful to managers in identifying what is truly necessary to develop the MAF in a timely manner. For example, within the 2020 Research and Testing schedule, 52 percent of activities not yet completed appear on the calculated critical path.