Several factors constrain CNMI’s economic potential, including the lack of diversification, scarce natural resources, small domestic markets, limited infrastructure, and shortages of skilled labor. The United States exercises sovereignty over CNMI, and, in general, federal laws apply to CNMI. However, federal minimum wage provisions and federal immigration laws do not apply. CNMI immigration policies and the demands for labor by the garment manufacturing industry and tourism sector have resulted in rapid population growth since 1980 such that the majority of the population are non-U.S. citizens. (See fig. 1.) According to U.S. Census Bureau data for 2000, the most recent census data available, about 56 percent of the CNMI population of 69,221 were not U.S. citizens. According to U.S. Census Bureau data for 2000, the median household income in CNMI was $22,898, a little more than half of the U.S. median household income of almost $42,000 for 2000. The percentage of individuals in poverty in 2000 was 46 percent, nearly four times the continental U.S. rate of 12 percent in that same year. CNMI’s economy depends on two industries, garment manufacturing and tourism, for its employment, production, and exports. These two industries rely heavily on a noncitizen workforce. This workforce represents more than three quarters of the labor pool that are subject to the CNMI minimum wage, which is lower than the U.S. minimum wage. The garment industry, for example, uses textiles and labor imported mostly from China. A 1999 study found that garment manufacturing and tourism accounted for about 85 percent of CNMI’s total economic activity and 96 percent of its exports. A 2005 estimate of CNMI’s gross domestic product (GDP) suggest that, in 2002, the garment industry contributed to roughly 40 percent of CNMI’s GDP and 47 percent of payroll. However, recent changes in trade laws have increased foreign competition for CNMI’s garment industry, while other external events have negatively impacted its tourism sector. Recent developments in international trade laws have reduced CNMI’s trade advantages, and the garment industry has declined in recent years. Historically, while garment exporters from other countries faced quotas and duties in shipping to the U.S. market, CNMI’s garment industry benefited from quota-free and duty-free access to U.S. markets for shipments of goods in which 50 percent of the value was added in CNMI. In recent years, however, U.S. agreements with other textile-producing countries have liberalized the textile and apparel trade. For example, in January 2005, in accordance with one of the 1994 World Trade Organization (WTO) Uruguay Round agreements, the United States eliminated quotas on textile and apparel imports from other textile- producing countries, leaving CNMI’s apparel industry to operate under stiffer competition, especially from low-wage countries such as China. According to a DOI official, more than 3,800 garment jobs were lost between April 2004 and the end of July 2006, with 10 out of 27 garment factories closing. U.S. Department of Commerce data show that the value of CNMI shipments of garments to the United States dropped by more than 16 percent between 2004 and 2005, from about $807 million to $677 million, and down from a peak of $1 billion in 1998--2000. In 2006, reported garment exports to the United States fell further, by an estimated 25 percent compared to 2005, with exports declining to an estimated $497 million. The reported level of shipments to the United States in 2006 was comparable to levels of sales in 1995--1996, prior to the significant build-up of the industry. (See fig. 2.) In December 2006, the largest and oldest garment factory closed. Given that the garment industry is significant to CNMI’s economy, these developments will likely have a negative financial effect on government revenue. For example, reported fees collected by the government on garment exports fell 37 percent from $38.6 million in 2000 to $24.4 million in 2005. CNMI’s tourism sector experienced a sharp decline in the late 1990s, and a series of external events have further hampered the sector. Tourism became a significant sector of economic activity in CNMI by the mid-1980s and continued to grow into the 1990s. Due to its proximity to Asia, Asian economic trends and other events have a direct effect on CNMI’s economy. For example, tourism in CNMI experienced a sharp decline in the late 1990s with the Asian financial crisis and due to the cancellation of Korean Air service to CNMI following an airplane crash on Guam in August 1997. (See fig. 3.) Visitors from Korea, the second largest source of tourists, decreased by 85 percent from 1996 to 1998. After a modest recovery in 2000, tourism faltered again with the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States. In 2003, according to CNMI officials, tourism slowed—with a double-digit decline in arrivals for several months—in reaction to the SARS epidemic and to the war in Iraq. Tourism in CNMI is also subject to changes in airline practices. For example, Japan Airlines (JAL) withdrew its direct flights between Tokyo and Saipan in October 2005, raising concerns because roughly 30 percent of all tourists and 40 percent of Japanese tourists arrive in CNMI on JAL flights, according to CNMI and DOI officials. The Marianas Visitors Authority’s June 2006 data show that the downward trend in Japanese arrivals is not being offset by the growth in arrivals from other markets such as China and South Korea, with the total number of foreign visitors dropping from 43,115 in June 2005 to 38,510 a year later. At the same time, CNMI has experienced increased Chinese tourists in recent years, which offer the potential to reenergize the industry. The fiscal condition of CNMI’s government has steadily weakened from fiscal year 2001 through fiscal year 2005, the most recent year for which audited financial statements for CNMI were available. In addition, several indicators point to a severe financial crisis in fiscal year 2006. As shown in figure 4, CNMI’s reported governmental fund balance declined from a positive $3.5 million at the beginning of fiscal year 2001 to a deficit of $84.1 million by the end of fiscal year 2005, as CNMI’s expenditures for its governmental activities consistently exceeded revenues in each year since fiscal year 2002. Most of CNMI’s governmental activities, which include basic services such as public safety, health care, general administration, streets and parks, and security and safety, are reported in its governmental activities, or government funds. The fund balance (or deficit) for these activities reflects the amount of funds available at the end of the year for spending. A significant contributing factor to the gap between expenditures and revenues is that actual expenditures have exceeded budgeted expenditures each fiscal year during the period 2001 through 2005. Another measure of fiscal health is the measure of net assets for governmental activities, which represents total assets minus total liabilities. As shown in table 1, CNMI has experienced a negative trend in its balance of net assets for governmental activities, going from a reported positive $40.6 million balance at the end of fiscal year 2001 to a negative $38 million balance at the end of fiscal year 2005. The primary difference between the fund balance measure and net assets is that the net assets include capital assets and long-term liabilities, whereas the fund balance figure focuses on assets available for current period expenditures and liabilities that are due and payable in the current period. In order to finance its government activities in an environment where expenditures have exceeded revenues, CNMI has increased its debt and has not made the required contributions to its retirement fund. CNMI’s reported balance of notes and bonds payable has increased from $83 million in fiscal year 2002 to $113 million in fiscal year 2005, representing an increase of 36 percent. CNMI’s balance owed to its pension fund has increased from $72 million in 2002 to $120 million in 2005, representing an increase of 67 percent. CNMI has also been incurring penalties on the unpaid liabilities to the pension fund. The total amount of assessed penalties was $24 million as of September 30, 2005. As shown in figure 5, CNMI’s reported debt to assets ratio has increased significantly, from 89.8 percent in fiscal year 2002 to 113.5 percent in 2005. In other words, at the end of fiscal year 2005, CNMI owed $1.14 for every $1.00 in assets that it held. Although CNMI’s audited fiscal year 2006 financial statements are not yet available, indicators point to a severe fiscal crisis during fiscal year 2006. In a May 5, 2006 letter to the CNMI Legislative leaders, Governor Benigno R. Fitial stated that “the Commonwealth is facing an unsustainable economic emergency. . . . I regret to say that the nature and extent of these financial problems are such that there is no simple or painless solution.” CNMI has implemented several significant cost-cutting and restructuring measures during fiscal year 2006. For instance, in August 2006, CNMI enacted its Public Law No. 15-24 to implement “austerity holidays” consisting of bi-weekly furloughs, during which government employees are not paid and many government operations are closed. This measure was taken to help alleviate the financial crisis by saving millions of dollars in both personnel and operational costs. The measure declared unpaid holidays once per pay period for the remainder of fiscal years 2006 and 2007, reducing the government’s normal pay period to 72 hours every 2 weeks. In June of 2006, CNMI enacted Public Law No. 15-15 to authorize the CNMI government to suspend the government’s employer contributions to the retirement fund for the remainder of fiscal years 2006 and 2007.