With a cost of about $12.3 billion, the 2010 Census was the most expensive population count in U.S. history, costing about 31 percent more than the $9.4 billion 2000 Census (in constant 2020 dollars). Some cost growth is to be expected because the population is growing and becoming more complex and difficult to count, which increases the Bureau’s workload. However, the cost of counting each housing unit has escalated from about $16 in 1970 to $92 in 2010 (in constant 2020 dollars), according to the Bureau. For the 2020 Census, the Bureau intends to limit its per-household cost to not more than that of the 2010 Census, adjusted for inflation. To achieve this goal, the Bureau is significantly changing how it conducts the census, in part by re-engineering key census-taking methods and infrastructure. The Bureau’s innovations include (1) using the Internet as a self-response option; (2) verifying most addresses using “in-office” procedures rather than costly field canvassing; (3) re-engineering data collection methods; and (4) in certain instances, replacing enumerator-collected data with administrative records (information already provided to federal and state governments as they administer other programs). The Bureau’s various initiatives have the potential to reduce costs. In October 2015, the Bureau estimated that with its new approach it can conduct the 2020 Census for a life-cycle cost of $12.5 billion, $5.2 billion less than if it were to repeat the design and methods of the 2010 Census (both in constant 2020 dollars). However, in June 2016, we reported that this $12.5 billion cost estimate was not reliable and did not adequately account for risk. Table 1 below shows the Bureau’s estimated cost savings it hopes to achieve in the following four innovation areas. The 2016 test was the latest major test of NRFU in the Bureau’s testing program. In 2014, the Bureau tested new methods for conducting NRFU in the Maryland and Washington, D.C., area. In 2015, the Bureau assessed NRFU operations, in Maricopa County, Arizona. In 2018, the Bureau plans to conduct a final “End-to-End” test which is essentially a dress rehearsal for the actual decennial. The Bureau needs to finalize the census design by the end of fiscal year 2017 so that key activities can be included in the End-to-End Test. The Bureau plans to conduct additional research through 2018 in order to further refine the design of the 2020 Census, but recently had to alter its approach. On October 18, 2016, the Bureau decided to stop two field test operations planned for fiscal year 2017 in order to mitigate risks from funding uncertainty. Specifically, the Bureau said it would stop all planned field activity, including local outreach and hiring, at its test sites in Puerto Rico, North and South Dakota, and Washington State. The Bureau will not carry out planned field tests of its mail-out strategy and follow up for non-response in Puerto Rico, or its door-to-door enumeration. The Bureau also cancelled plans to update its address list in the Indian lands and surrounding areas in the three states. However, the Bureau will continue with other planned testing in fiscal year 2017, such as those focusing on systems readiness and internet response. Further, the Bureau said it would consider incorporating the cancelled field activities elements within the 2018 End-to-End Test. The Bureau maintains that stopping the 2017 Field Test will help prioritize readiness for the 2018 End-to-End Test, and mitigate risk. Nevertheless it also represents a lost opportunity to test, refine, and integrate operations and systems, and puts more pressure on the 2018 Test to demonstrate that enumeration activities will function as needed for 2020. NRFU generally proceeded according to the Bureau’s operational plans. However, our observations and the Bureau’s preliminary data at both test sites found that (1) there were a large number of non-interviews, and (2) enumerators had difficulty implementing new census-taking procedures. The Bureau’s 2016 Census Test included a new field management structure that, among other things, included an enhanced operations control system supporting daily assignments of cases. A cornerstone of the Bureau’s efforts to reduce the cost of NRFU is the automation of decision-making on how to manage the follow-up caseload. Unlike previous censuses and one prior test, enumerators in the 2016 Census Test did not have an assigned set of cases that they alone would work until completion. Instead, the Bureau relied on an enhanced operational control system that was designed to provide daily assignments and street routing of non-response follow-up cases to enumerators in the most optimal and efficient way. The Bureau first tested this system in the 2015 Census Test. The test also included streamlined procedures for making contact at large apartment buildings. This was intended to reduce repeated attempts to contact property managers. A key objective of the 2016 Census Test was to refine procedures for collecting NRFU data from households using mobile devices leased from a contractor. In prior decennials, enumerators collected NRFU information using paper and pencil. The Bureau believes that replacing paper-based operations with automated case management and mobile devices for collecting interview data will provide a faster, more accurate, and more secure means of data collection in the 2020 Census (see figure 1). Some test activities that we observed at both test sites included streamlined multi-unit contact procedures and interviews with a proxy respondent. A proxy is someone who is a non-household member, at least 15 years old, and knowledgeable about the NRFU address. At multi- unit structures such as apartment buildings, the enumerator is trained to first interview the property manager to find out which units were occupied and which were vacant on Census Day. Such interviews help to streamline NRFU by removing vacant units from an enumerator’s workload. They also help build a rapport with property managers by ensuring they know when enumerators are working in their building and can also help them gain access to locked buildings. Preliminary data at both test sites indicate that the Bureau experienced a large number of non-interviews. According to the Bureau, non-interviews are cases where either no data or insufficient data were collected, in part because the cases reached the maximum number of six attempted visits without success or were not completed due to, for example, language barriers or dangerous situations. While not necessarily a precursor to the 2020 non-interview rate, because of its relationship to the cost and quality of the count, it will be important for the Bureau to better understand the factors contributing to it. According to preliminary 2016 Census Test data, there were 19,721 NRFU cases coded as non-interviews in Harris County, Texas and 14,026 in Los Angeles County, California, or about 30 and 20 percent of the test workload respectively. In such cases, the Bureau may have to impute attributes of the household based on the demographic characteristics of surrounding housing units as well as administrative records. Bureau officials expect higher numbers of non-interviews during tests in part because, compared to the actual enumeration, the Bureau conducts less outreach and promotion. Bureau officials hypothesized that another contributing factor could be related to NRFU methods used in the 2016 test compared to earlier decennials. For the 2010 and earlier decennials, enumerators collected information during NRFU using pencil and paper. Enumerators may have visited a housing unit more than the 6 maximum allowable visits to obtain an interview but did not record all of their attempts, thus enabling them to achieve a higher completion rate. For the 2020 Census, and as tested in 2016, the Bureau plans to collect data using mobile devices leased from a contractor, and an automated case management system to manage each household visit. The Bureau believes that this approach will provide a faster, more accurate, and more secure means of data collection. At the same time, the mobile device and automated case management system did not allow an enumerator to attempt to visit a housing unit more than once per day, reopen a closed case, or exceed the maximum allowable six attempts. One factor we observed that may have contributed to the non-interview rate was that enumerators did not seem to uniformly understand nor follow procedures for completing interviews with proxy respondents. According to the 2016 Census Test enumerator training manual, when an eligible respondent at the address cannot be located, the automated case management system on the mobile device will prompt the enumerator when to find a proxy to interview, such as when no one is home or the housing unit appears vacant. In such circumstances, enumerators are to find a neighbor or landlord to interview. However, in the course of our site visits, we observed that enumerators did not always follow these procedures. For example, one enumerator, when prompted to find a proxy, looked to the left and then right and, finding no one, closed the case. Similarly, another enumerator ignored the prompt to find a proxy and explained that neighbors are usually not responsive or willing to provide information about the neighbor, and did not seek to find a proxy. Enumerators we interviewed did not seem to understand the importance of obtaining a successful proxy interview, and many appeared to have received little encouragement during training to put in the effort to find a proxy. Proxy data for occupied households are important to the success of the census as the alternative is a non-interview. In 2010, about one-fourth of the NRFU interviews for occupied housing units were conducted using proxy data. We shared our observations with Bureau officials who told us that they are aware that enumerator training for proxies needs to be revised to convey the importance of collecting proxy data when necessary. Converting non-interviews by collecting respondent or proxy data can improve interview completion rates, and ultimately the quality of census data. The Bureau told us it will continue to refine procedures for 2020. According to the Bureau, its plans to automate the assignment of NRFU cases have the potential to deliver significant efficiency gains.