At first glance, it might seem premature to discuss preparations for the decennial census; after all, Census Day, April 1, 2020, is still almost 8 years away. However, our reviews of the 1990, 2000, and the 2010 Censuses have shown that early planning, the use of leading management practices, and strong congressional oversight can help reduce the costs and risks of the national headcount. Indeed, the characteristics of the decennial census—long-term, large-scale, complex, high-risk, and politically sensitive—together make a cost-effective enumeration of the nation’s population and housing a monumental project-planning and management challenge. Despite the complexity, cost, and importance of the census, however, recent enumerations were not planned well. Indeed, shortcomings with managing and planning the 2000 and 2010 enumerations led to acquisition problems, cost overruns, and other issues, and, as a result, we placed both enumerations on our list of high-risk programs. For example, leading up to the 2010 Census, we found that additional costs and risks associated with the data capture technologies used in the 2010 Census were related to a failure to adequately link specifications for key information technology systems to requirements. Additionally, the lack of skilled cost estimators for the 2010 Census led to unreliable life- cycle cost estimates, and some key operations were not tested under census-like conditions. GAO, Information Technology: Census Bureau Needs to Improve Its Risk Management of Decennial Systems, GAO-08-79 (Washington, D.C.: Oct. 5, 2007). program difficult and hampered accountability, succession planning, and staff development. Since then, we and other organizations—including the Bureau itself— have stated that fundamental changes to the design, implementation, and management of the census must be made in order to address these operational and organizational challenges. For its part, the Bureau has stated that to contain costs and maintain quality, bold innovations in both planning and design of the 2020 Census will be required, and has launched a number of change initiatives. Some of these efforts are directed at transforming the Bureau’s organization, while others focus on reexamining the fundamental approach to the 2020 Census. Although bold reform plans are critical steps in the right direction, the Bureau’s past experience has shown that the more difficult challenge will be sustaining those efforts throughout the course of the decade. Indeed, preparations for both the 2000 and 2010 Censuses started with ambitious plans that gave reason for optimism that major improvements were on the way. However, in the subsequent ramp-up to those enumerations, the Bureau had difficulty identifying and implementing promising innovations, progress on reforms slowed, and as Census Day drew closer, the success of those head-counts became an open question. In our April 2011 testimony, we noted that based on the results of prior enumerations, simply refining current methods—some of which have been in place for decades—will not bring about the reforms needed to control costs while maintaining accuracy given ongoing and newly emerging societal trends such as concerns over personal privacy and an increasingly diverse population.reconsider the nation’s approach to the census including rethinking such activities as how it plans, tests, implements, monitors, and evaluates enumeration activities. The Bureau concurred and its 2020 Census business plan states that the Bureau needs substantial innovation to achieve its cost and quality targets and to meet its strategic goals. Consequently, the Bureau will need to As one example, with respect to its research and testing efforts, the Bureau plans to use the American Community Survey—an ongoing Bureau survey of population and housing characteristics that is administered monthly throughout the decade—as a vehicle to test certain decennial census processes and information technology (IT) systems. According to the Bureau, this approach will enable it to conduct many small tests throughout the decade in a production environment instead of relying on a small number of large, expensive tests as was the case in past decennial planning cycles. According to the Bureau, refining systems in the American Community Survey reduces the risk of building one-use systems for the decennial that need to operate flawlessly the first time they are put into production. With respect to implementing the census, among other activities, the Bureau is researching potential electronic methods of promoting the census and collecting data, including with the Internet via social networking sites, e-mail, and text messages, as well as with automated phone systems. For the 2010 Census, the Bureau initially investigated the use of an Internet response option but dropped plans based on concerns over information technology security, and after completing a cost-benefit analysis that led the Bureau to conclude that Internet data collection would not significantly improve the overall response rate or reduce field data collection. The Bureau is also researching how it can use administrative records to reduce the cost of certain decennial activities. Administrative records from government agencies, including driver licenses and school records, can be used to identify persons associated with a particular household address. Administrative records could save the Bureau money because they could help reduce the need for certain costly and labor-intensive door-to-door visits by Bureau employees to collect data in-person from non-respondents. During the 2010 Census, the Bureau made only limited use of administrative records. Expanding their use to supplement respondent data on a national level will present a certain degree of risk, and issues concerning data quality and access to records must first be resolved. With so many innovations underway at the Bureau, strong and continuing stewardship at the senior level will be critical for ensuring they stay on track moving forward. However, the announced resignation of the Director coming up this August could mean that it will be a number of months before an agency head appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate will be in place. As with the heads of all federal agencies, it will be important for the Bureau Director to possess the requisite leadership and management skills and background to successfully address the challenges facing the Bureau in the years ahead. On the basis of our knowledge of past and present census operations and a review of readily available literature, certain general stewardship roles that the Director, as a senior executive, will play in managing the institution, and their related qualifications, merit particular attention in this regard. These roles and qualifications are not necessarily unique to the Bureau, and it is unlikely that any one person will excel in all of these areas. That said, based on our knowledge of past and present census operations and review of available literature on leadership—particularly of federal agencies—we identified the following characteristics of a successful leader: Strategic leader. As the head of the Census Bureau, the Director is responsible for, among other activities, (1) leading change and (2) leading people. In leading change, the Director will be expected to build a shared vision or long-term view for the organization among its stakeholders, as well as be a catalyst for developing and implementing the Bureau’s mission statement and strategic goals, and be cognizant of the forces affecting the Bureau. Moreover, in addition to the decennial census, the Bureau is also responsible for a number of other vital national data gathering and statistical programs such as the American Community Survey. As a result, it will be important for the Director to ensure the Bureau’s information products continue to meet the current and emerging needs of its numerous and diverse customers, including Congress, state, local and federal government organizations, and a wide array of other public and private organizations. In leading people, the Director should ensure that human resource strategies, including recruitment, retention, training, incentive, and accountability initiatives are designed and implemented in a manner that supports the achievement of the organization’s mission and goals and addresses any mission critical skill gaps. In particular, it will be important for the Director to motivate headquarters, field, and temporary staff to ensure they function as an integrated team rather than a stovepiped bureaucracy. Technical professional. It is logical to expect that the Director would have at least a general background in statistics or a related field. Although no one person will have the full range of knowledge needed to answer the many methodological and technical questions that the Director may face, it is important that he or she have sufficient technical knowledge to direct the Bureau’s statistical activities. In addition, the Director should manage for results by developing and using performance measures to assess and improve the Bureau’s operations. Administrator. Like other agency heads, the Director is responsible for acquiring and using the human, financial, and information technology resources needed to achieve its goals and mission. The Director should, for example, be capable of setting priorities based on funding levels. Further, because the Bureau’s product is information, the Director should ensure that the Bureau leverages technology, such as the Internet, to improve the collection, processing, and dissemination of census information. Collaborator. It will be important for the Director to continually expand and develop working relationships and partnerships with those in governmental, political and professional circles to obtain their input, support, and participation in the Bureau’s activities. For example, it will be important for the Director to continue working with local government officials to have them play a more active role in taking the census. We previously found that leveraging such data as local response rates, census socio-demographic information, as well as other data sources and empirical evidence, might help control costs and improve accuracy by providing information on ways the Bureau could more efficiently allocate its resources. For example, some neighborhoods might require a greater level of effort to achieve acceptable results while in other areas those same results might be accomplished with fewer resources. The 2010 Census had several census-taking activities tailored to specific population groups. As one example, the Bureau budgeted around $297 million on paid media to raise awareness and encourage public participation in the census. To determine where paid media efforts might have the greatest impact, the Bureau developed predictive models based on 2000 Census data and other sources. Other efforts included mailing a bilingual English/Spanish questionnaire in some areas, and sending a second “replacement” census questionnaire to about 53 million households in areas with historically lower response rates.