For the 2020 Census, the Bureau intends to limit its per-household cost to not more than that of the 2010 Census, adjusted for inflation. To achieve this goal, the Bureau is significantly changing how it conducts the census, in part by re-engineering key census-taking methods and infrastructure. The Bureau’s innovations include (1) using the Internet as a self-response option; (2) verifying most housing unit addresses using “in-office” procedures rather than costly field canvassing; (3) in certain instances, replacing enumerator-collected data with administrative records (information already provided to federal and state governments as they administer other programs) and, (4) re-engineering field data collection methods. The Bureau’s various initiatives have the potential to make major contributions toward limiting cost increases. In October 2015, the Bureau estimated that with its new approach it can conduct the 2020 Census for a life-cycle cost of $12.5 billion, $5.2 billion less than if it were to repeat the design and methods of the 2010 Census (both in constant 2020 dollars). Table 1 below shows the Bureau’s estimated cost savings it hopes to achieve in 4 innovation areas. Sufficient testing, while important to the success of any census, is even more critical for the Bureau’s preparations for 2020. To help control costs and maintain accuracy, the 2020 Census design includes new procedures and technology that have not been used extensively in earlier decennials, if at all. While these innovations show promise for a more cost-effective head count, they also introduce new risks. As we have noted in our prior work, it will be important to thoroughly test the operations planned for 2020 to ensure they will (1) produce needed cost savings, (2) function in concert with other census operations, and (3) work at the scale needed for the national head count. The Bureau’s failure to fully test some key operations prior to the 2010 Census was a key factor that led us to designate that decennial as one of our high-risk areas. The 2016 test was the latest major test of NRFU in the Bureau’s testing program. In 2014, the Bureau tested new methods for conducting NRFU in the Maryland and Washington, D.C., area. In 2015, the Bureau assessed NRFU operations in Maricopa County, Arizona. In 2018, the Bureau plans to conduct a final “End-to-End” Test which is essentially a dress rehearsal for the actual decennial. The Bureau needs to finalize the census design by the end of fiscal year 2017 so that key activities can be included in the End-to-End Test. The Bureau plans to conduct additional research and testing through 2018 in order to further refine the design of the 2020 Census but recently decided to alter its approach. On October 18, 2016, the Bureau announced plans to stop two field test operations planned for fiscal year 2017 to mitigate risks from funding uncertainty. The Bureau said it would stop all planned field activity, including local outreach and hiring, at its test sites in Puerto Rico, North and South Dakota, and Washington State. The Bureau will not carry out planned field tests of its mail out strategy and NRFU in Puerto Rico. The Bureau also cancelled plans to update its address list in the Indians lands and surrounding areas in the three states. However, the Bureau said it will continue with other planned testing in fiscal year 2017, such as that focusing on systems readiness and internet response. Further, the Bureau said it would consider incorporating the stopped field activity elements within the 2018 End-to-End Test. The Bureau maintains that stopping the 2017 Field Test will help prioritize readiness for the 2018 End-to-End Test, and mitigate risk. Nevertheless, as we noted in our November 2016 testimony, it represents a lost opportunity to test, refine, and integrate operations and systems, and puts more pressure on the 2018 End-to-End Test to demonstrate that enumeration activities will function as needed for 2020. NRFU generally proceeded according to the Bureau’s operational plans. For example, the Bureau demonstrated procedures for quality assurance and training. On the other hand, according to preliminary 2016 Census Test data, there were 19,721 NRFU cases coded as non-interviews in Harris County, Texas and 14,026 in L.A. County, California, or about 30 and 20 percent of the test workload respectively. According to the Bureau, non-interviews are cases where no data or insufficient data were collected, either because enumerators made six attempted visits without success (the maximum number the Bureau allowed), or visits were not completed due to, for example, language barriers or dangerous situations. In such cases for the 2020 Census, the Bureau may have to impute attributes of the household based on the demographic characteristics of surrounding housing units as well as administrative records. According to Bureau officials, they are not certain why there were so many non-interviews for the 2016 Census Test and are researching potential causes. Bureau officials told us that they expect higher numbers of non-interviews during tests in part, because, compared to the actual enumeration the Bureau conducts less outreach and promotion. While the 2016 Census Test interview rate is not necessarily a precursor to the 2020 non-interview rate, because of its relationship to the cost and quality of the census, it will be important for the Bureau to better understand the factors contributing to it. Bureau officials hypothesized that another contributing factor could be related to NRFU methods used in the 2016 Census Test compared to earlier decennials. For the 2010 and prior censuses, enumerators collected information during NRFU using pencil and paper. Enumerators may have visited a housing unit more than the six maximum allowable visits to obtain an interview but did not record all of their attempts, thus enabling them to achieve a higher completion rate. For the 2020 Census, and as tested in 2016, the Bureau plans to collect data using mobile devices leased from a contractor, and an automated case management system to manage each household visit (see figure 1). The Bureau believes that this approach will provide a faster, more accurate, and more secure means of data collection. Unlike previous censuses and one prior test, enumerators in the 2016 Census Test did not have an assigned set of cases that they alone would work until completion. Instead, the Bureau relied on an enhanced operational control system that was designed to provide daily assignments and street routing of NRFU cases to enumerators in the most optimal and efficient way. At the same time, the mobile device and automated case management system did not allow an enumerator to attempt to visit a housing unit more than once per day, reopen a closed case, or exceed the maximum allowable six attempts. One factor we observed that may have contributed to the non-interview rate was that enumerators did not seem to uniformly understand or follow procedures for completing interviews with proxy respondents (a proxy is someone who is a non-household member, at least 15 years old, and knowledgeable about the NRFU address). According to the 2016 Census Test enumerator training manual, when an eligible respondent at the address cannot be located, the automated case management system on the mobile device will prompt the enumerator when to find a proxy to interview, such as when no one is home or the housing unit appears vacant. In such circumstances, enumerators are to find a neighbor or landlord to interview. However, in the course of our site visits, we observed that enumerators did not always follow these procedures. For example, we observed that one enumerator, when prompted to find a proxy, looked to the left and then right and, finding no one, closed the case. Similarly, another enumerator ignored the prompt to find a proxy and explained that neighbors are usually not responsive or willing to provide information about the neighbor and did not seek to find a proxy. Enumerators we interviewed did not seem to understand the importance of obtaining a successful proxy interview and many appeared to have received little encouragement during training to put in effort to find a proxy. Proxy data for occupied households are important to the success of the census because the alternative is a non-interview. In 2010 about one- fourth of the NRFU interviews for occupied housing units were conducted using proxy data. We shared our observations with Bureau officials who told us that they are aware that enumerator training for proxies needs to be revised to convey the importance of collecting proxy data when necessary. Converting non-interviews by collecting respondent or proxy data can improve interview completion rates, and ultimately the quality of census data. The Bureau told us it will continue to refine procedures for 2020. According to the Bureau, its plans to automate the assignment of NRFU cases have the potential to deliver significant efficiency gains. At the same time, improving certain enumeration procedures and communicating better could produce additional efficiencies by enabling the Bureau to be more responsive to situations enumerators encounter in the course of their follow-up work. Enumerators were unable to access recently closed incomplete cases. Under current procedures, if an enumerator is unable to make contact with a household member, the case management system closes that case to be reattempted at a later date, perhaps by a different enumerator; assuming fewer than six attempts have been made. Decisions on when re-attempts will be made—and by whom—are automated and not designed to be responsive to the immediate circumstances on the ground. This is in contrast to earlier decennials when enumerators, using paper-based data collection procedures, had discretion and control over when to re-attempt cases in the area where they were working. According to the Bureau, leaving cases open for re- attempts can undermine the efficiency gains of automation when enumerators depart significantly from their optimized route, circling back needlessly to previously attempted cases rather than progressing through their scheduled workload. During our test site observations, however, we found how this approach could lead to inefficiencies in certain circumstances.