The Bush Administration released The Budget of the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 2009 on February 4, 2008. The full set of budget documents ( Budget, Appendix, Analytical Perspectives, Historical Tables , as well as several other supplemental budget documents) contains detailed budget information, including estimates of the budget without the proposed policy changes (known as "current service baseline" estimates), historical budget data, detailed budget authority, outlay and receipt data, selected analysis of specific budget-related topics, and the Administration's economic forecast. The budget documents outline the Administration's policy proposals and expectations from FY2008 through FY2013. The documents also discuss long-term fiscal issues facing the nation and provide historical data on previously enacted appropriations, past outlays and revenues, and other budget items. The Administration foresees a steady improvement of the federal government's fiscal position, including a surplus of $29 billion in FY2013, the last year projected, although the FY2013 on-budget deficit, which excludes Social Security surpluses, is projected at $201 billion. Administration projections omit all costs of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq beyond FY2008 aside from a $70 billion supplemental request. Federal deficits are projected to rise rapidly after FY2020. Major Administration proposals include extensions of the expiring tax cuts, limited increases in domestic discretionary spending, and halting the expanding reach of the alternative minimum tax (AMT) for calendar 2008, but not for later years. Medicare and Medicaid are expected to grow more slowly than in recent years. The congressional budget process, which includes the annual budget resolution and appropriations bills, begins once the Administration submits its budget to Congress. As Congress deliberates over the budget, the Administration often revises its proposals as it interacts with Members of Congress and as national and international economic conditions change. On March 7, 2008, the House and Senate Budget committees reported budget resolutions ( S.Con.Res. 70 and H.Con.Res. 312 ). The House passed its budget resolution on March 13 by a 212 to 207 vote, and the Senate passed its version in the early hours of March 14 by a 51 to 44 vote. In each chamber, a large number of amendments were considered before adoption to budget resolutions. Both resolutions include a one-year alternative minimum tax (AMT) fix. The House agreed to an amended version of S.Con.Res. 70 on May 14 without objection, which laid the groundwork for a conference committee. The budget conference report, H.Rept. 110-659 , was filed on May 20. The next day, the House cleared the way for consideration of the conference agreement by passing H.Res. 1214 . On June 4, 2008, the Senate passed the S.Con.Res. 70 conference report on a 48-45 vote, and the House passed it the next day on a 214-210 vote. House passage of the FY2009 budget resolution automatically passed and transmitted to the Senate legislation ( H.J.Res. 92 ) to raise the debt limit. Table 1 contains budget estimates for FY2009 from CBO, the Administration (the Office of Management and Budget, OMB), and Congress (House and Senate Budget Committees). Estimated budget totals can vary due to differing underlying economic, technical, and budget-estimating assumptions and techniques, as well as differences in policy assumptions. Minor differences in underlying assumptions, which may generate small short-term discrepancies, can produce wide divergences in projected long-term budget paths. Budget estimates issued by the President, CBO, Congress, or by others, should be expected to change as new data arrive or as economic conditions change. The economic slowdown caused by financial turmoil and rising commodity prices that started in the third quarter of 2007 has continued to affect budget estimates and projections. Early in 2008, CBO predicted that economic growth would slow in calendar year 2008 and recover in 2009. The President's budget acknowledged economic challenges, but predicted strong growth in both 2008 and 2009. Over the course of 2008, the economy weakened according to many measures such as employment, although other measures such as economic growth and household consumption did not slow as much as some had expected. As a result of the deepening of the economic slowdown, OMB and CBO in summer 2008 adjusted forecasts of revenues downwards and outlays upwards. CBO's September 2008 baseline estimate for FY2009 revenues ($2.817 trillion) was $97 billion below its January figure ($2.720 trillion), while the September baseline estimate for outlays ($3.158 trillion) was $143 billion above the January estimate ($3.015 trillion). Spending in Table 1 is shown in terms of outlays, which are federal funds disbursed in a given time period. Many budget documents also report spending in terms of budget authority, which reflects the amount of money federal agencies are legally allowed to spend. Budget authority has been compared to funds deposited into a checking account, which then can be used for federal purposes. Outlay data are more convenient for assessing the macroeconomic effects of the federal budgets, while analysts focusing on specific federal programs typically rely on budget authority figures. Appropriations legislation is generally framed in terms of budget authority, because Congress can control the amount of funds made available for specific purposes. The timing of federal outlays, on the other hand, often depends on administrative decisions of federal program officials, made within bounds set by Congress. This report focuses on outlays, rather than budget authority, in order to highlight broader effects of the federal budget on the economy. CBO's first budget report for the FY2009 budget cycle, released in January 2008, contained current-law budget baseline and economic projections for FY2008 through FY2018. This report projected a FY2009 current-law baseline deficit of $198 billion, up slightly from the FY2007 deficit of $162 billion. This projection, however, assumed that AMT relief would lapse and that the FY2009 costs of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan would be a little less than costs in FY2008. That CBO baseline projection showed a surplus of $87 billion emerging in FY2012 that was expected to rise to $223 billion in FY2018. CBO baseline projections are computed using certain assumptions set by law. These assumptions typically yield higher revenue estimates and projections of slower growth of discretionary spending relative to scenarios that independent forecasters consider likely. Three key assumptions incorporated in CBO baseline projections are that discretionary spending remains constant in inflation-adjusted terms; the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts fully expire after 2010 (as current law specifies); and the "patch" to the alternative minimum tax (AMT), which currently applies to tax year 2007, would lapse. After 2010, when most of the tax cuts from 2001 and 2003 expire, according to baseline projections, receipts grow substantially. The assumption that these tax cuts expire and that growth in discretionary spending is zero in real terms explains most of the declining deficit and the surpluses that emerge over the 10-year baseline forecast window. Nonetheless, unless major policy changes are made, federal deficits are expected to grow rapidly beyond the 10-year forecast window, largely because of rapidly growing health care costs and the retirement of the baby boomers. CBO's January report also included estimated budgetary effects of selected policies on revenues and outlays. These included estimates of the costs of making the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts permanent and indexing the AMT for inflation to limit its expanding coverage. CBO also presented projections based on assumptions that differ from current-law baseline assumptions. One alternate projection assumed that discretionary appropriations increase at the rate of growth of gross domestic product (GDP), which leads to faster growth of outlays relative to the baseline. Another alternative projection assumed that total discretionary appropriations would be frozen at FY2008 levels, yielding slower growth in outlays relative to the baseline. Estimated cost savings for troop reductions are also reported: reducing troops deployed to Iraq, Afghanistan, and other Global War on Terror postings to 75,000 by FY2013 would reduce outlays (including borrowing costs) by $250 billion over the FY2009-FY2013 period relative to baseline levels. In February 2008, CBO issued an update of its economic projections due to new evidence of slower economic activity, interest rate cuts and other actions taken by the Federal Reserve, and the economic stimulus package. The revised estimates showed slightly faster economic growth in FY2008 due to fiscal stimulus measures, but slightly slower growth in FY2009, when those measures lapse. The cost of the economic stimulus package and slower economic growth imply increases in federal budget deficits in the short-run. At the beginning of March 2008, CBO published a preliminary analysis of the President's FY2009 Budget. This analysis included the effects of the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 ( P.L. 110-185 ), which was projected to raise the FY2008 budget deficit by $152 billion and the FY2009 deficit by $16 billion. In addition, forecasts reflected lower interest rates, which helped increase projected economic growth rates and reduce borrowing costs. CBO estimated smaller short-run deficits than OMB, largely due to lower estimates of defense costs. On the other hand, CBO projected slightly higher deficits in later years. President Bush's FY2009 budget proposed a permanent extension of most of the 2001 EGTRRA and 2003 JGTRRA tax cuts, as well as extending other expiring tax provisions. When borrowing costs are included, the President's proposals would raise the deficit by a projected $692 billion between FY2009 and FY2013 relative to the baseline, and by $2.7 trillion between FY2009 and FY2017, according to Administration estimates. The Administration's proposals, according to its own estimates, would reduce mandatory spending by $96 billion over 5 years and by $309 billion over 10 years. Proposed policy changes include both spending reductions and some increases—termed "augmentations" by the Administration. The budget included a cost estimate of $637 billion over 10 years for proposed personal accounts for Social Security.