Over the past 20 years, DOD has been engaged in an effort to modernize its aging tactical aircraft force. The F-22A and JSF, along with the F/A-18E/F, are the central elements of DOD’s overall recapitalization strategy for its tactical air forces. The F-22A was developed to replace the F-15 air superiority aircraft. The continued need for the F-22A, the quantities required, and modification costs to perform its mission have been the subject of a continuing debate within DOD and the Congress. Supporters cite its advanced features—stealth, supercruise speed, maneuverability, and integrated avionics—as integral to the Air Force’s Global Strike initiative and for maintaining air superiority over potential future adversaries. Critics argue that the Soviet threat it was originally designed to counter no longer exists and that its remaining budget dollars could be better invested in enhancing current air assets and acquiring new and more transformational capabilities that will allow DOD to meet evolving threats. Its fiscal year 2007 request includes $800 million for continuing development and modifications for aircraft enhancements such as equipping the F-22A with an improved ground attack capability and improving aircraft reliability. The request also includes about $2.0 billion for advance procurement of parts and funding of subassembly activities for the initial 20 aircraft of a 60-aircraft multiyear procurement. JSF is a replacement for a substantial number of aging fighter and attack aircraft currently in the DOD inventory. For the Air Force, it is intended to replace the F-16 and A-10 while complementing the F-22A. For the Marine Corps, the JSF is intended to replace the AV-8B and F/A-18 A/C/D; for the Navy, the JSF is intended to complement the F/A-18E/F. DOD estimates that as currently planned, it will cost $257 billion to develop and procure about 2,443 aircraft and related support equipment, with total costs to maintain and operate JSF aircraft adding $347 billion over the program’s life cycle. After 9 years in development, the program plans to deliver its first flight test aircraft later this year. The fiscal year 2007 budget request includes $4 billion for continuing development and $1.4 billion for the purchase of the first 5 procurement aircraft, initial spares, and advance procurement for 16 more aircraft to be purchased in 2008. We have frequently reported on the importance of using a sound, executable business case before committing resources to a new product development. In its simplest form, such a business case is evidence that (1) the warfighter’s needs are valid and can best be met with the chosen concept and quantities, and (2) the chosen concept can be developed and produced within existing resources—that is, proven technologies, design knowledge, adequate funding, and adequate time to deliver the needed product. At the heart of a good business case is a knowledge-based strategy to product development that demonstrates high levels of knowledge before significant commitments of time and money are made. The future of DOD’s tactical aircraft recapitalization depends largely on the outcomes of the F-22A and JSF programs—which represent about $245 billion in investments to be made in the future. Yet achieving expected outcomes for both these programs continues to be fraught with risk. We have reported that the F-22A’s original business case is unexecutable and does not reflect changing conditions over time. Currently, there is a significant mismatch between the Air Force’s stated need for F-22A aircraft and the resources the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) is willing to commit. The business case for the JSF program, which has 90 percent of its investments still in the future, significantly overlaps production with development and system testing—a strategy that often results in cost and schedule increases. Both programs are at critical junctures that require DOD to make important business decisions. According to the Air Force, a minimum of 381 modernized F-22A aircraft are needed to satisfy today’s national strategic requirements—a buy that is roughly half the 750 aircraft originally planned, but more than double the 183 aircraft OSD states available funding can support. Since the Air Force began developing the F-22A in 1986, the business case for the program has changed radically— threats have changed, requirements have been added, costs have increased, funds have been added, planned quantities have been reduced, and deliveries of the aircraft to the warfighter have been delayed. There is a 198-aircraft capability gap today. Decisions in the last 2 years have worsened the mismatch between Air Force requirements and available resources, further weakening the F-22A program’s business case. Without a new business case, an agreement on an appropriate number of F-22As for our national defense, it is uncertain as to whether additional investments in the program are advisable. The original business case for the F-22A program was to develop air superiority fighters to counter a projected threat of significant quantities of advanced Soviet fighters. During the 19-year F-22A development program, that threat did not materialize to the degree expected. Today, the requirements for the F-22A have evolved to include what the Air Force has defined as a more robust ground attack capability to destroy expected air defense systems and other ground targets and an intelligence-gathering capability. However, the currently configured F-22A is not equipped to carry out these roles without further investments in its development. The F-22As modernization program is currently being planned for three basic blocks, or spirals, of increasing capability to be developed and delivered over time. Current Air Force estimates of modernization costs, from 2007 through 2016, are about $4.3 billion. Additional modernization is expected, but the content and costs have not been determined or included in the budget. OSD has restructured the acquisition program twice in the last 2 years to free up funds for other priorities. In December 2004, DOD reduced the program to 179 F-22As to save about $10.5 billion. This decision also terminated procurement in 2008. In December 2005, DOD changed the F-22A program again, adding $1 billion to extend production for 2 years to ensure a next-generation fighter aircraft production line would remain in operation in case JSF experienced delays or problems. It also added 4 aircraft for a total planned procurement of 183 F-22As. As part of the 2005 change, aircraft previously scheduled in 2007 will not be fully funded until 2008 or later. OSD and the Air Force plan to buy the remaining 60 F-22As in a multiyear procurement that would buy 20 aircraft a year for 3 years—2008 through 2010. The Air Force plans to fund these aircraft in four increments—an economic order quantity to buy things cheaper; advanced procurement for titanium and other materials and parts to protect the schedule; subassembly; and final assembly. The Air Force plans to provide Congress a justification for multiyear procurement in May 2006 and the fiscal year 2007 President’s Budget includes funds for multiyear procurement. The following table shows the Air Force’s plan for funding the multiyear procurement. Air Force officials have told us that an additional $400 million in funds are needed to complete the multiyear procurement and that the accelerated schedule to obtain approval and start the effort adds risk to the program, creating more weaknesses in the current F-22A business case. A 198-aircraft gap between what the Air Force needs and what is affordable raises questions about what additional capabilities need to be included in the F-22A program. In March 2005, we recommended that the Air Force develop a new business case that justified additional investments in modernizing the aircraft to include greater ground attack and intelligence-gathering capabilities before moving forward. DOD responded to our report that business case decisions were handled annually in the budget decisions and that the QDR would analyze requirements for the F-22A and make program decisions. However, it is not clear from the QDR report, issued last month, what analyses were conducted to determine the gaps in capability, the alternatives considered, the quantities needed, or the costs and benefits of the F-22A program. Therefore, questions about the F-22A program remain: What capability gaps exist today and will exist in the future (air superiority, ground attack, electronic attack, intelligence gathering)? What alternatives besides the F-22A can meet these needs? What are the costs and benefits of each alternative? How many F-22As are needed? What capabilities should be included? Until these questions are answered and differences are reconciled, further investments in the program—for either the procurement of new aircraft or modernization—cannot be justified. The JSF program appears to be on the same path as the F-22A program. After being in development for 9 years, the JSF program has not produced the first test aircraft, has experienced substantial cost growth, has reduced the number of planned aircraft, and has delayed delivery of the aircraft to the warfighter. Moreover, the JSF program remains committed to a business case that invests heavily in production before testing has demonstrated acceptable performance of the aircraft. At the same time, the JSF program has contracted to develop and deliver the aircraft’s full capability in a single-step, 12-year development program—a daunting task given the need to incorporate the technological advances that, according to DOD, represent a quantum leap in capability. The business case is a clear departure from the DOD policy preference that calls for adopting an evolutionary approach to acquisitions. Furthermore, the length and cost of the remaining development are exceedingly difficult to accurately estimate, thereby increasing DOD’s risks in contracting for production. With this risky approach, it is likely that the program will continue to experience significant cost and schedule overruns.