The President’s Vision for Space Exploration for NASA announced in 2004 calls for the retirement of the shuttle upon completion of the ISS and the creation of new vehicles for human space flight that will allow a return to the moon by 2020 and voyages to Mars and points beyond. The shuttle manifest currently consists of 16 flights—15 to complete assembly and integration of the ISS and a servicing mission to the Hubble Space Telescope. The first new space vehicles currently are targeted to begin operating no later than 2014—thereby creating a potential gap in U.S. human space flight. Congress has voiced concern over the United States not having continuous access to space. NASA has made it a priority to minimize the gap to the extent possible. NASA has begun planning for the retirement of the shuttle, scheduled for 2010, by identifying best practices in closing facilities and the transitioning of capabilities. Specifically, NASA has conducted a number of benchmarking studies of previous closures and realignment of large programs, including the Titan IV rocket fly-out, the F/A-18 C/D fighter production close, and the Navy Base Realignment and Closure activities. The benchmarking efforts have highlighted to NASA the importance of having a plan, effective communication, human capital management, and effective program management tools. NASA’s benchmarking effort also showed that closing and transitioning facilities, equipment, and people is expensive and time consuming. Among the lessons learned is that, historically, it has taken 3.5 years to close down an installation and another 3 years to complete the transition of the property. NASA’s Office of the Inspector General has recently reviewed NASA’s plan for the space shuttle transition and recommended, among other improvements, that the two affected space directorates finalize and implement the Human Space Flight Transition Plan. Development of the Orion crew capsule, Ares I launch vehicle, and other exploration systems needed to implement the Vision is dependent on a “go as you can afford to pay” approach, wherein lower-priority efforts will be deferred, descoped, or discontinued to allow NASA to stay within its available budget profile. In recent testimony, the NASA Administrator said that the cost associated with returning the shuttle to flight, continued shuttle operations, and recent budget reductions had the combined effect of increasing the gap by delaying the first manned Orion test flight by 6 months. In an effort to address the gap in U.S. capability to resupply the space station following retirement of the shuttle, NASA is investing in commercial space transportation services. NASA’s expectation is that by acquiring domestic orbital transportation services it will be able to send cargo and, in the future, transport crews to the ISS in a cost-effective manner. NASA refers to this as the Commercial Orbital Transportation Services project. The project is in the early stages of development. Should these commercial services prove to be unreliable or more costly than anticipated, NASA will need to purchase space transportation from its international partners to meet obligations to the ISS until the new Orion spacecraft become operational. We have undertaken a substantial body of work over the past 3 years that has highlighted the significant challenges that NASA will face as it retires the shuttle and transitions to exploration activities. One key challenge is sustaining the shuttle workforce through the retirement of the shuttle while ensuring that a viable workforce is available to support future activities. Another key challenge will be developing the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle within cost, schedule, and performance goals. Additionally, our ongoing work has identified a number of other areas that may present challenges during the transition period. Some of these challenges include managing the supplier base to ensure its continued viability, developing the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle, and completing and supporting the space station. The Space Shuttle Program’s workforce is critical to the success of the Vision. The shuttle workforce currently consists of approximately 2,000 civil service and 15,000 contractor personnel, including a large number of engineers and scientists. In 2005, we reported that NASA had made limited progress toward developing a detailed strategy for sustaining a critically skilled shuttle workforce to support space shuttle operations. We reported that significant delays in implementing a strategy to sustain the shuttle workforce would likely lead to larger problems, such as funding and failure to meet NASA program schedules. Accordingly, we concluded that timely action to address workforce issues is critical given their potential impact on NASA-wide goals such as closing the gap in human spaceflight. When we performed our work several factors hampered the ability of the Space Shuttle Program to develop a detailed long-term strategy for sustaining the critically skilled workforce necessary to support safe space shuttle operations through retirement. For example, at that time, the program’s focus was on returning the shuttle to flight, and other efforts such as determining workforce requirements were delayed. In our report, we recommended that NASA begin identifying the Space Shuttle Program’s future workforce needs based upon various future scenarios. Scenario planning could better enable NASA to develop strategies for meeting future needs. NASA concurred with our recommendation. It has acknowledged that shuttle workforce management and critical skills retention will be a major challenge for the agency as it progresses toward retirement of the space shuttle and has taken action to address this issue. For example, since we made our recommendation, NASA has developed an agencywide strategic human capital plan and developed workforce analysis tools to assist it in identifying critical skills needs. NASA has also developed a human capital plan specifically for sustaining the shuttle workforce through the retirement and, then transitioning the workforce. Additionally, in March 2006, the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies, and NASA asked the National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA) to assist the agency in planning for the space shuttle’s retirement and transition to future exploration activities. In February 2007, a NAPA panel recommended that the Space Shuttle Program adopt a RAND model for projecting a core workforce because of its emphasis on “long-term scheduling projections, quantification of core competencies and proficiencies, and analysis of overlapping mission needs.” Under the RAND model, an organization maintains a core capability for any competency that will be needed in the future. According to NAPA, this model is useful where a given expertise is not immediately required, but is likely to be needed in the future—in this case, for the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle. In July 2006, we reported that NASA’s acquisition strategy for the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle placed the project at risk of significant cost overruns, schedule delays, and performance shortfalls because it committed the government to a long-term contract before establishing a sound business case. Our past work has shown that developing a sound business case—one that matches requirements to available and reasonably expected resources before committing to a new product development effort—reduces risk and increases the likelihood of successful outcomes. For a program to increase its chances of success, high levels of knowledge should be demonstrated before significant commitments are made (i.e., they should be following a knowledge-based approach to product development). At the time of our report, NASA had yet to develop key elements of a sound business case, including well-defined requirements, mature technology, a preliminary design, and firm cost estimates that would support its plans for making a long-term commitment. Without such knowledge, NASA cannot predict with any confidence how much the program will cost, what technologies will or will not be available to meet performance expectations, and when the vehicle will be ready for use. NASA acknowledged that it would not have these elements in place until the project’s Preliminary Design Review scheduled for fiscal year 2008. As a result, we recommended that the NASA Administrator modify the agency’s acquisition strategy for the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle to ensure that the agency does not commit itself, and in turn the federal government, to a long-term contractual obligation prior to establishing a sound business case at the project’s Preliminary Design Review. Although it initially disagreed with our recommendation, NASA subsequently took steps to address some of the concerns we raised. Specifically, NASA modified its acquisition strategy for the Orion project and changed the production and sustainment portions of the contract into options. The agency will decide whether to exercise these options after the project’s critical design review in 2009. While these changes are in line with our recommendation and a step in a positive direction, we continue to believe NASA’s acquisition strategy is risky because it does not fully conform to a knowledge-based acquisition approach. Attempting to close that gap by pushing forward development of the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle without first obtaining the requisite knowledge at key points could very well result in the production of a system that not only does not meet expectations but ends up costing more and actually increases the gap. Since we last testified on this subject in September 2006, NASA has successfully completed its first major milestone for the Orion project. It has completed the Systems Requirements Review. This was a major step toward obtaining the information critical for making informed decisions. According to NASA’s Orion contracting officer, NASA is also in the process of renegotiating the Orion contract to extend the Initial Operational Capability date of the system to 2014. Further, while this change will increase contract costs, the increase has already been accounted for in the Orion budget because the agency has been planning the change for over a year. In addition, risks associated with schedule, cost, and weight continue to be identified for the Orion project. As we have previously testified, sound project management and oversight will be key to addressing the risks that remain for the Orion project as it proceeds with its acquisition approach. To help mitigate the risks, we have recommended in the past that NASA have in place markers (i.e., criteria) to assist decision makers in their monitoring of the project at key junctures in the development process. Such markers are needed to provide assurance that projects are proceeding with and decisions are being based upon the appropriate level of knowledge and can help to lessen project risks.