A long-standing problem in DOD space acquisitions is that program and unit costs tend to go up significantly from initial cost estimates, while in some cases the capability that was to be delivered goes down. Figure 1 compares original cost estimates and current cost estimates for the broader portfolio of major space acquisitions for fiscal years 2010 through 2015. The wider the gap between original and current estimates, the fewer dollars DOD has available to invest in new programs. As shown in the figure, cumulative estimated costs for the major space acquisition programs have increased by about $13.9 billion from initial estimates for fiscal years 2010 through 2015, almost a 286 percent increase. The declining investment in the later years is the result of mature programs that have planned lower out-year funding, cancellation of several development efforts, and the exclusion of space acquisition efforts for which total cost data were unavailable (such as new investments). When space system investments other than established acquisition programs of record—such as the Defense Weather Satellite System (DWSS) and Space Fence programs—are also considered, DOD’s space acquisition investments remain significant through fiscal year 2016, as shown in figure 2. Although estimated costs for selected space acquisition programs decrease 21 percent between fiscal years 2010 and 2015, they start to increase in fiscal year 2016. And, according to current DOD estimates, costs for two programs— Advanced Extremely High Frequency (AEHF) and Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS) High—are expected to significantly increase in fiscal years 2017 and 2018. The costs are associated with the procurement of additional blocks of satellites and are not included in the figure because they have not yet been reported or quantified. Figures 3 and 4 reflect differences in total program and unit costs for satellites from the time the programs officially began to their most recent cost estimates. As figure 4 shows, in several cases, DOD has increased the number of satellites. The figures reflect total program cost estimates developed in fiscal year 2010. Several space acquisition programs are years behind schedule. Figure 5 highlights the additional estimated months needed for programs to launch their first satellites. These additional months represent time not anticipated at the programs’ start dates. Generally, the further schedules slip, the more DOD is at risk of not sustaining current capabilities. For example, delays in launching the first MUOS satellite have placed DOD’s ultra high frequency communications capabilities at risk of falling below the required availability level. DOD had long-standing difficulties on nearly every space acquisition program, struggling for years with cost and schedule growth, technical or design problems, as well as oversight and management weaknesses. However, to its credit, it continues to make progress on several of its high- risk space programs, and is expecting to deliver significant advances in capability as a result. The Missile Defense Agency’s (MDA) Space Tracking and Surveillance System (STSS) demonstration satellites were launched in September 2009. Additionally, DOD launched its first GPS IIF satellite in May 2010 and plans to launch the second IIF satellite in June 2011—later than planned, partially because of system-level problems identified during testing. It also launched the first AEHF satellite in August 2010—although it has not yet reached its final planned orbit because of an anomaly with the satellite’s propulsion system—and launched the Space Based Space Surveillance (SBSS) Block 10 satellite in September 2010. DOD is scheduled to launch a fourth Wideband Global SATCOM (WGS) satellite broadening communications capability available to warfighters—in late 2011, and a fifth WGS satellite in early 2012. The Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) program had its 41st consecutive successful operational launch in May of this year. One program that appears to have recently overcome remaining technical problems is the SBIRS High satellite program. The first of six geosynchronous earth-orbiting (GEO) satellites (two highly elliptical orbit sensors have already been launched) was launched in May 2011 and is expected to continue the missile warning mission with sensors that are more capable than the satellites currently on orbit. Total cost for the SBIRS High program is currently estimated at over $18 billion for six GEO satellites, representing a program unit cost of over $3 billion, about 233 percent more than the original unit cost estimate. Additionally, the launch of the first GEO satellite represents a delay of approximately 9 years. The reasons for the delay include poor government oversight of the contractor, unanticipated technical complexities, and rework. The program office is working to rebaseline the SBIRS High contract cost and schedule estimates for the sixth time. Because of the problems on SBIRS High, in 2007, DOD began a follow-on system effort, which was known as Third Generation Infrared Surveillance (3GIRS), to run in parallel with the SBIRS High program. DOD canceled the 3GIRS effort in fiscal year 2011, but plans to continue providing funds under the SBIRS High program for one of the 3GIRS infrared demonstrations. While DOD is having success in readying some satellites for launch, other space acquisition programs face challenges that could further increase cost and delay delivery targets. The programs that may be susceptible to cost and schedule challenges include MUOS and the GPS IIIA program. Delays in the MUOS program have resulted in critical potential capability gaps for military and other government users. The GPS IIIA program was planned with an eye toward avoiding problems that plagued the GPS IIF program and it incorporated many of the best practices recommended by GAO, but the schedule leaves little room for potential problems and there is a risk that the ground system needed to operate the satellites will not be ready when the first satellite is launched. Additionally, the National Polar- orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) was restructured as a result of poor program performance and cost overruns, which caused schedule delays. These delays have resulted in a potential capability gap for weather and environmental monitoring. Furthermore, new space system acquisition efforts getting underway—including the Air Force’s Joint Space Operations Center Mission System (JMS) and Space Fence, and MDA’s Precision Tracking and Surveillance System (PTSS)— face potential development challenges and risks, but it is too early to tell how significant they may be to meeting cost, schedule, and performance goals. Table 1 describes the status of these efforts in more detail. Over the past year, we have completed reviews of sustaining and upgrading GPS capabilities and commercializing space technologies under the Small Business Innovation Research program (SBIR), and we have ongoing reviews of (1) DOD space situational awareness (SSA) acquisition efforts, (2) parts quality for DOD, MDA, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and (3) a new acquisition strategy being developed for the EELV program. These reviews, discussed further below, underscore the varied challenges that still face the DOD space community as it seeks to complete problematic legacy efforts and deliver modernized capabilities. Our reviews of GPS and space situational awareness, for instance, have highlighted the need for more focused coordination and leadership for space activities that touch a wide range of government, international, and industry stakeholders; while our review of the SBIR program highlighted the substantial barriers and challenges small business must overcome to gain entry into the government space arena. GPS. We found that the GPS IIIA schedule remains ambitious and could be affected by risks such as the program’s dependence on a ground system that will not be completed until after the first IIIA launch. We found that the GPS constellation availability had improved, but in the longer term, a delay in the launch of the GPS IIIA satellites could still reduce the size of the constellation to fewer than 24 operational satellites—the number that the U.S. government commits to—which might not meet the needs of some GPS users. We also found that the multiyear delays in the development of GPS ground control systems were extensive. Although the Air Force had taken steps to enable quicker procurement of military GPS user equipment, there were significant challenges to its implementation. This has had a significant impact on DOD as all three GPS segments—space, ground control, and user equipment—must be in place to take advantage of new capabilities. Additionally, we found that DOD had taken some steps to better coordinate all GPS segments, including laying out criteria and establishing visibility over a spectrum of procurement efforts, but it did not go as far as we recommended in 2009 in terms of establishing a single authority responsible for ensuring that all GPS segments are synchronized to the maximum extent practicable. Such an authority is warranted given the extent of delays, problems with synchronizing all GPS segments, and importance of new capabilities to military operations. As a result, we reiterated the need to implement our prior recommendation. Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR). In response to a request from this subcommittee, we found that while DOD is working to commercialize space-related technologies under its SBIR program by transitioning these technologies into acquisition programs or the commercial sector, it has limited insight into the program’s effectiveness. Specifically, DOD has invested about 11 percent of its fiscal years 2005–2009 research and development funds through its SBIR program to address space-related technology needs. Additionally, DOD is soliciting more space-related research proposals from small businesses. Further, DOD has implemented a variety of programs and initiatives to increase the commercialization of SBIR technologies and has identified instances where it has transitioned space-related technologies into acquisition programs or the commercial sector. However, DOD lacks complete commercialization data to determine the effectiveness of the program in transitioning space-related technologies into acquisition programs or the commercial sector. Of the nearly 500 space-related contracts awarded in fiscal years 2005 through 2009, DOD officials could not, for various reasons, identify the total number of technologies that transitioned into acquisition programs or the commercial sector.