More than a dozen years after achieving independence, Ukraine continues to undergo a difficulttransition to democracy and a free market economy. It is also undergoing a related search for itsidentity, as either an independent, central European state or as a close partner of Russia, with whichmost of Ukraine has close linguistic, cultural, religious and historic ties. The possibilities forUkraine's long-term future run a spectrum from participating in a prosperous, democratic, freemarket Europe, to being part of a poor, semi-authoritarian, corrupt post-Soviet region. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, many Western analysts have viewed a stable, independent and sovereign Ukraine as a key element in European security. They point to Ukraine'ssize (about the same land area as France), its population of nearly 50 million people, its naturalresources, and strategic position on the Black Sea between Russia and Central Europe. They focuson the positive influence that a stable and prosperous Ukraine could play as a neighbor to NATO andthe European Union. Some hope that Ukraine could one day join one or both of these organizations. Ukraine could also play an important role as a regional leader among former Soviet countries seekingto retain their sovereignty and independence. Those who are concerned about Russia's motives and goals in the region see an independent Ukraine as a guarantee against the revival of Russian power that could threaten the security ofcentral Europe. Conversely, analysts worry that a weak or unstable Ukraine could fall under Russiandomination or become a focus of tension between Russia and the West. The removal of nuclearweapons from Ukraine, which was completed in 1996, improved Ukraine's relations with the Westand diminished Western fears about the impact of possible instability in Ukraine. However, concernsremain about the possible proliferation of weapons technologies and spillover effects of crime, illegalimmigration and other problems. Ukraine's political system may be described as a mixture of democracy, authoritarianism, andoligarchy. Independent Ukraine has held three parliamentary elections and two presidential elections.In 1996, the country adopted a new, more democratic Constitution, replacing one from the Sovietera. After the 1994 presidential vote, power changed hands peacefully from incumbent LeonidKravchuk to Leonid Kuchma. Kuchma was reelected in 1999, in an elected that internationalobservers viewed as less than free and fair. A variety of views are expressed in Ukraine'sparliament, the Supreme Rada. A few independent media voices exist in Ukraine, often providinga highly critical perspective of those in power, although these have faced harassment and persecution by government authorities. Broadcast media are under the control of supporters ofPresident Kuchma. The country's regional diversity has had an important impact on the country's political scene. There are cultural, religious, linguistic and historical differences between western Ukraine and theeastern and southern regions of the country. However, in contrast to other parts of the former SovietUnion, there has been no significant ethnic tension or violence in Ukraine. In general, westernUkrainians are more nationally conscious than those in other regions. Western Ukraine played acatalytic role in the drive for Ukrainian independence in the early 1990s, although it has becomepolitically marginalized, as leaders from eastern and southern Ukraine, where most of Ukraine'sindustry is concentrated, have gained power. People in eastern and southern Ukraine, subjected tocenturies of Russification, tend to look more skeptically on Ukrainian nationhood or are indifferentto it. People in these regions are more likely to support economic and/or political union with Russia. Like other countries of the former Soviet Union, Ukraine's democratic development remains deeply flawed. President Kuchma's powers under the constitution are formidable and give himsignificant authority over the government, as well as the legislative and judicial branches. PresidentKuchma rules through a large presidential administration and a network of presidential appointeesreaching down to the local level. He also controls the interior ministry, intelligence agencies andthe tax authorities. He has used these as weapons to harass political opponents and independentmedia. Associated with Kuchma are prominent businessmen, often dubbed "oligarchs," who receivelucrative concessions from the state in return for providing political and financial support toKuchma. Some oligarchs are linked to organized crime figures. Ukraine's current Prime MinisterViktor Yanukovych is a representative of the powerful Donetsk oligarchic "clan." ViktorMedvedchuk, a leader of a Kiev-based oligarchic group, heads the presidential administration. Boththese groups, and a third oligarchic center based in Dnipropetrovsk, hold other key posts in thegovernment, parliament and other institutions. Kuchma has tried to balance these oligarchic groupsagainst each other in order to preserve his own power. Despite government efforts to use their control of the media and administrative resources to bolster their supporters, parliamentary elections in March 2002 resulted in a victory for Our Ukraine,an opposition pro-reform bloc led by former Prime Minister Viktor Yushchenko. Our Ukraine wonthe largest share of the vote but fell short of a majority. It currently holds about one-quarter of theseats in the parliament. The Communist Party suffered a heavy defeat, partly due to alleged fraud bylocal officials in the Donetsk region, where the Communists had traditionally done well. Kuchmawas able to cobble together a shaky parliamentary majority of pro-oligarch factions. Part of hissuccess was due to efforts to coopt some members of parliament (including Our Ukraine) by usingmaterial incentives and threats. Nevertheless, the pro-government bloc is riven with conflicts dueto the competing interests of the oligarchs, who strongly mistrust each other. According to recent public opinion polls, Kuchma has extremely low public support, with popularity ratings in the single digits. In addition to public dissatisfaction with living standards andwidespread government corruption, Kuchma's public image has been tarnished by scandal. InNovember 2000, an audio tape produced by a former Kuchma bodyguard purportedly capturedKuchma's orders to top officials to neutralize independent journalist Georhiy Gongadze, whoseheadless, mutilated body had been found by police. The bodyguard who produced the tapes claims that they show that Kuchma is at the center of a vast criminal enterprise involving the oligarchs, thepolice and security services. (1) Ukraine's current political scene is dominated by the question of who will succeed Kuchma as President, or if the political system should be changed to make that point moot. Kuchma isconstitutionally barred from running for a third term as President after his current one expires inOctober 2004. Kuchma and the oligarchic groups are reportedly concerned that they may not uniteon a viable candidate to defeat Yushchenko in the 2004 vote, who remains Ukraine's most popularpolitical figure. The current leadership fears that the Western-oriented Yushchenko could move toclean up corruption if he is elected, which could expose Kuchma and other current leaders tocriminal prosecution. Even if Yushchenko and other opposition leaders guaranteed that they wouldnot prosecute Kuchma and others, in exchange for allowing free and fair elections, Kuchma and hissupporters may not trust them, given that the new leadership would be supported by new would-beoligarchs bent on seizing property held by the old regime's supporters. In order to avoid a possible Yushchenko victory, Kuchma and his powerful chief of staff Viktor Medvedchuk (head of the anti-reform, Kiev-based political clan) have put forward a political reformplan. This proposal to amend Ukraine's constitution - which was adopted in first reading inDecember 2003 - would reduce the powers of the presidency; provide for a presidential election fora shortened term from 2004 to 2006 (when new parliamentary elections are scheduled); and call forthe election of a new president in 2006 by the parliament, not the public. This plan may have beendesigned to hamper Yushchenko from being elected in 2004 to a full term as president with thepost's current extensive powers. In February 2004, the parliament approved an amendment to the bill, dropping the election of president by the parliament. The amendment thereby removed the most objectionable part of the bill,to some observers. However, the revised bill may still serve the purposes of the ruling elite, in thatthe future president, perhaps Yushchenko, will still have weakened powers and the government(including Prime Minister Yanukovych) will be strengthened. It remains unclear whether oligarchic groups can secure the necessary two-thirds majority in the parliament to adopt the revised bill. The Communists and Socialists, whose support is vital tofinal passage, condition their continued support on having the parliament elected entirely byproportional representation, a proposal not favored by some in the pro-presidential camp, who couldlose ground under such a system to groups with stronger party organizations, such as the Socialistsand Communists. Until recently, it was believed that Kuchma was constitutionally barred from running for a third5-year term as President after his current one expires. Kuchma himself has said repeatedly that heis not interested in a third term. On December 30, 2003, the ruling elite further hedged its bets bysecuring a Constitutional Court ruling that would permit Kuchma to run for a third term. However,since the decision, Kuchma has repeated that he will retire from politics at the end of his currentterm. Ukraine's efforts at economic reform have been marked by modest successes and periods ofinertia. Ukraine has generally pursued responsible monetary and fiscal policies since 1994, withoccasional but significant lapses. Macroeconomic stability permitted Ukraine to successfullyintroduce a new currency, the hryvnya, in 1996.