Mining Road Traffic Accident Data to Improve Safety: Role of Road-Related Factors on Accident Severity in Ethiopia

Road traffic accidents (RTAs) are a major public health concern, resulting in an estimated 1.2 million deaths and 50 million injuries worldwide each year. In the developing world, RTAs are among the leading cause of death and injury; Ethiopia in particular experiences the highest rate of such accidents. Thus, methods to reduce accident severity are of great interest to traffic agencies and the public at large. In this work, we applied data mining technologies to link recorded road characteristics to accident severity in Ethiopia, and developed a set of rules that could be used by the Ethiopian Traffic Agency to improve safety. Problem Statement The costs of fatalities and injuries due to road traffic accidents (RTAs) have a tremendous impact on societal well-being and socioeconomic development. RTAs are among the leading causes of death and injury worldwide, causing an estimated 1.2 million deaths and 50 million injuries each year (World Health Organization, 2004). Ethiopia has the highest rate of RTAs, owing to the fact that road transport is the major transportation system in the country. The Ethiopian traffic control system archives data on various aspects of the traffic system, such as traffic volume, concentration, and vehicle accidents. With more vehicles and traffic, the capital city of Addis Ababa takes the lion’s share of the risk, with an average of 20 accidents being recorded every day and even more going unreported. The basic hypothesis of this research is that accidents are not randomly scattered along the road network, and that drivers are not involved in accidents at random. There are complex circumstantial relationships between several characteristics (driver, road, car, etc.) and the accident occurrence. As such, one cannot improve safety without successfully relating accident frequency and severity to the causative variables (Kononov and Janson 2002). We will attempt to extend the authors’ previous work in this area by generating additional attributes and focusing on the contribution of road-related factors to accident severity in Ethiopia. This will help to identify the parts of a road that are risky, thus supporting traffic accident data analysis in decision-making processes. The general objective of the research is to investigate the role of road-related factors in accident severity, using RTA data from Ethiopia and predictive models. Our three specific objectives include: 1) exploring the underlying variables (especially road-related ones) that impact car accident severity, 2) predicting accident severity using different data mining techniques, and 3) comparing standard classification models for this task. Literature Review Various studies have addressed the different aspects of RTAs, with most focusing on predicting or establishing the critical factors influencing injury severity (Chong, A. et al. 2005). Numerous data mining-related studies have been undertaken to analyze RTA data locally and globally, with results frequently varying depending on the socio-economic conditions and infrastructure of a given location. Ossenbruggen, Pendharkar et al. (2001) used a logistic regression model to identify the prediction factors of crashes and crash-related injuries, using models to perform a risk assessment of a given region. These models included attributes describing a site by its land use activity, roadside design, use of traffic control devices, and traffic exposure. Their study illustrated that village sites were less hazardous than residential or shopping sites. Abdalla et al. (1997) also studied the relationship between casualty frequency and the distance of an accident from residential zones. Not surprisingly, casualty frequencies were higher in accidents that occurred nearer to residential zones, possibly due to higher exposure. The