Year: 1871

Conflict.


| A cable despatch informs us that the Lon
don Standard has 1t on unquesti0nable
authority that Russia is arming on gigantic
scale. Two fortified camps are being formed,
each TO contain one hundred and eighty thou
sand men. It is decided that one Of the forti-
fed camps shall be at Smolensk, and 1t is all
but certain that the other will be located on
the Galician frontier. The Standard further
informs us that these military preparations are
directed more particularly against Austria,
because of the appointment Of Count Andrassy
to the chief place in the imperial council. We
have no reason to doubt that the Standard is
well informed, or that this piece of intelligence
is absolutely reliable. If true it is ominous
of war.


1t is now some weeks since we foreshad-
owed some such complication. We distinctly
declared that the next great conflict In Europe
would be between Russia on the one hand and
Germany and Austria on the other. It was
known to US that Germany was making war
preparations on most gigantic scale. 1t was
known that Austria, in spite Of her internal
troubles, was similarly engaged. Every other
day has been revealing facts which left US less
and less in doubt as to tho tendency of events
1t is only few days since Bismarck proposed
and the North German Parliament consented
to the laying aside Of huge war fund to be
ready for immediate nse In the event of any
sudden emergency. That war fund, enormous
beyond anything of the kind ever known in
Europe, is now or soon will be, in hard
cash, safely deposited in the imperial
treasury. The conferences of Gastein and
Salzburg have severely panied Rnssia.
Won Beust has retired but he did
not retire until he had effected recon-
ciliation and concluded an alliance
between Germany and Austria, nor until he
made it certain that the policy he had inaugu-
rated was safe in the hands Of his successor.
The Hungarians are the sworn foes Of the
Russians. They never liked them and they
never will forgive them for their conduct in
184S. Count Andrassy is a representative
Hungarian and fully imbued with the senti-
ments of his countrymen. The concluding of
an alliance with Germany was the breaking up
of all friendly relations with Russia. If one
of the fortified camps be established on the
Galloian frontier it will be regarded as direct
menace to Austria and 1t may be taken for
granted that the imperial government will lose
no time 10 demanding an explanation. On
this explanation will hang the question of
peace or war. Such camp in such q place
Austria cannot permit, for it will be an open
~ to fho cfod cIo IN
rise in rebellion.


The whole question is thus reduced to
nice point. If-as we have no reason to
doubt-an alliance offensive and defensive has
been concluded between Austria and Germany,
Austria will rush in at once, but she will not
rush in alone. The conquering sword of
Germany villa be unsheathed, and all the
weight of her invncible hosts will fall upon
the Northern Colossus. 1t is not difficult to
decide beforehand on which side victory will
lean. Russia may be more than match for
Austria; she may be quite equal to the task
Of measuring lances with Germany; but
against Austria and Germany combined she
cannot have the shadow of chance. Russia
is absolutely without an ally. The only pos
sble assistance she can count upon is insur-
reotion among the Austrian Sclaves The
war may be short, sharp and decisive. 1t may
be protraoted. In any case it will be
bloody and destructive, quIe as much as,
If not more so, than the war which
has SO recently been concluded. There
the conflict. We do not share this opinion.
France is not in position 10 undertake the
responsibilities and run the risks of another
gigantic conf ct. Her hour Of revenge may
come, but the time is not yet. If France
should indicate willingness to choose her
side 1t will not be difficult for Bismarck to
persuade Italy to give France sufficient occu-
patton. The Italian people hunger after Nice
and Savoy quite as mach as they hunger after
Rome. And who can doubt that in such an
event Bismarck could and would plunge
France once more into the agonies of civil
war by openly encouraging and aiding towards
the restoration of Napoleon2 Not unless
Turkey or Switzerland, or Holland or Bel
GUM is menaced will Great Britain join in the
fray.


One certain result of the war will be the
rectifcation of frontiers. Austria will pay
Germany for her help by surrendering the
German provinces proper, and Prussia will
consent to her occupation of Roumania.


Austria will thus, leaning upon Hungary,


move eastward, and by building up new en-


pire in the Lower Danube she will raise a


powerful barrier wall between Russia and
Constantinople. Germany will not lose the
opportunity to seize the German provinces of
lose but German unity, so long the dream Of
poets, will be an accomplished fact 1t will
not surprise us if the British government shall,