Year: 1875

responding weeks last year. We express no
opinion on these rival views. We should say
at the moment that the figures naturally point
to fully four and one-fourth millions; whether
this estimate may be increased to four and
one.half millions by March or reduced to four
millions. we dare not guess. Nothing can be
predicated with any certainty about the fu-
ture in America.


Before looking to other countries we may
consider how far the American crop can sup
ply the worlds consumption of American cot
ton. The careful and searching scrutiny
made of the consumption last October leads
US to believe that the invisible stock was then
underrated, and that the quantity of Ameri-
can cotton actually consumed out of the last
crop did not exceed 100000 bales, if it
reached that figure. Practically, the last crop
yielded surplus of9O0,0 600 beyond the worlds
consumption. The previous one yielded a
surplus of 100000, and we venture to say
that if the present crop reaches four and
quarter millions it will yield surplus of $780,
600 bales, for we do not think that the con-
suming power of the world will exceed tour
millions the present season. In England the
consumption will be stationary on the con-
tinent it will increase little; in America 1T
will perhaps, be rather less, for trade is ex-
ceedingly bad there, and the mills are work
ing good deal of short time


The result of three crops in America will,
therefore, be to add about 75O,OOO bales to the
quantity of American cotton remaining IN
stock at the end of this season, as compared
with the famine supply held at the end of the
short crop of 1912. Against this, howev'
er, we have to put large reduction IN the
stock of East India cotton. Nobody can
doubt that we have sufficient supply OF
American cotton the coming year with crop
exceeding four millions, and superabundant
supply if it exceeds four and a quarter mil
lions. The India supply has hitherto been
the balance wheel of our market A big
American crop and low prices used to cut OFT
so much from the East that the pendulum
swung round, and our apparent surplus soon
disappeared. 1t seems, however, that lower
prices than we had once supposed will bring
US the full weight of the India crop. At the
present moment there is no sign of smaller
supply from India next year. The crops in
Western India are promising remarkably
we'll. The Oomrawuttee crop is estimated at
ten per cent. larger than last year. The
Broach and Dhollerah are expected to be
very good if no mischief befall them the
next two months, and the Dharwar crop is
moderately we'll spoken of. The Bengal crop
is also very good, whereas it was a failure
last year. We think India will supply as
much cotton in 1875 as in 1874, unless prices
fall very low indeed. Egypt does not prom.
ise we'll; the season was not favorable, and
estimates of decrease vary from ten to twenty
per cent, say $4,000 to 100000 bales. The
Brazils are expected to give about the same
as last year.


It appears, therefore, that our cotton sup
ply, as whole, promises to be fully equal to
the consumption Of the world, and there does
not appear to be room for violent fluctuations
in prices.


The most trying period of our market will
be the spring months heavy import will ar.
rive continuously till midsummer; the Amer
lean cotton now due loses considerably, and 1t
will need strong accounts from America to
sustain our market in the face of this. Yet
it is quite possible that if receipts fall off un-
usually fast in the spring, we might see such
vigorous buying, on the part of the trade as
to cause a smart advance, in spite Of the large
import. On the other hand, it is equally on
the cards, that large receipts and weakness in
America, will cause the import to be pressed
on our market and lead to very low prices tor
a time The next two or three months will
probably enable US to know with tolerable
certainty what will be the lowest dip of the
season, or whether it is already past.


So far as Manchester is concerned, we have
good grounds for hopefulness. Though there
are some serious drawbacks, such as the mis-
erable accounts reaching US from India, we
think the prospects Of spinners and manutac-
turers are not bad. The low price of bread
stuffs will act favorably on the home trade
and the European demand. and we should
think that the slight restriction of production
enforced by the factory act will tend to check
the over-supply that has for so many years
been continually pouring into the Eastern
markets, making that department of trade
one of incessant loss to the merchant.


At the same time we must say that We do
not see those signs ofgreat buoyancy in trade
which might have been expected after so many
years of bad business in Manchester. We see
nothing in the state of things there to make
spinners depart from cautious policy as re.
CARDS buying cotton. The time may come
when the trade will see it their interest to be-
come large spectators in cotton, as they did
in 1871, but we see no signs Of it as yet, and
the inducement will need to be stronger than
it is now to make Manchester depart from the
attitude of caution she has so long adopted.


A PROFITABLE WIFE, have been mar
ried twenty-five years. The first four years
before was married I began farming with