Year: 1875

The Memphis cotton market of the year 1915
was one Of unusual interest. There has been
the ordinary incidents Of all cotton seasons.
Times OF hope and seasons Of fear, but there
was one central and unfailing source OF inter-
eSt-StartIng with almost the opening OF the
market and never failing until the approach
oTitS close II was believed, from very early
period OF the season, and believed the most
thoroughly by those who knew the market
most intimately, that the crop would be below
that of the previous year. Notwithstanding
the fact that a drouth at the latter part ofthe
growing season hastened the period of rlpen-
ing the bolls, and so caused larger portion OF
cotton than usual to arrive in the market at
an early date; Notwithstanding, also, the fact
that the best authority in cotton faffairs we
have put out an estimate going over four mill
lion bales. while the estimate ofthose of whom
we speak was less than four millions, the opin-
ion OF a short crop was persIstently clung to.
This opinion has proved to be correct, and
the efore the victory appeared to be with the
shOrt-crop estimaters. But If they are the VIC
tons who receive the spoils, the victory really
lay with the erroneous side. The reason was
this: the short-crop side drew, as an inference
from their first judgment, a second one. They
believed that prices would rise above those of
the year previous, at least in a proportion
equal 70 the fall in receipts below II. When
It was seen that the proportion OF cotton ar
irving IN market was larger than in the early
months OF the season before, a second infer
euce was drawn. This was that a time would
come when there would be a sharp and
sudd m fall In receipts, and, consequently, all
who held cotton when the sharp and sudden
fall OF occurred, would make money. The
facts upon which the inferences were
founded proved to be correct, but the
inferences were false. The falling on
was not sharp and sudden, and il was not
accom- panied by any advance in price. So
much the contrary, in fact, that the prices at
the opening OF the season were never after
ward equaled. our weekly statement below
OF Memphis receipts, shipments, sales, ETC., In
the last column but one-that OF the average
weekly prices-simply and strikingly show
these facts. The inferences we have men
Toned gov erned the speculative elements of
the whole season. From time TO time Influ-
euces came into play that swayed the course
OF prices to some extent, but the theory Of a
sharp and sudden fall in receipts, and a con-
sequent advance in prices, was the master
idea that directed the years speculation. The
result Of the whole was disappointment and
loss. This was the more singular, because





founded on other facts-had existed, and
brought disappointments only the season be-
fore. Ia our remarks on that season, which
was prepared as preparatory TO our last years
review OF the cotton market, we had the fol-
loving paragraph: "If ever Intelligent
foresight could penetrate the future,
IL would appear that It should have been
able % do so the past year, when many iniu-
ences that ordinarily distract attention and
interfere with the regular operation Of the
law Of supply and demand were absent, and
the question, therefore, reduced TO as simple
form as We can usually expect to see it. Yet
the genera ly accepted theory proved 10 be
misleading one. That theory was that the
crop OF 1851 would prove 10 be below that OF
the precedl ug year; that various influences
Aad combined to put the crop on the market
AZ an caller time than w.s usual, conSe-
quently after liberal receipts at the
earlier part Of the season there would be
a sharp and decisive falling OF not very long
after the New Years holiday; that, as the
next consequence, prices would be much
higher during the latter half Of the season
than during the first half This theory was
The basis upon which most OF the speculation,
N this quarter at least, turned" One reason
why differences founded upon the theory OF a
8
bseu because there was fair-and this last
year = abundani-supply Of cotton the earll-
s.,t half OF the season. As long as that was
the case the "bears" treated the talk OF short
crops as mere theory of the bulls" There
might be something in it, but sit did not
amount to much anyway" By the time the
real facts Of the case became known, the mar
ket was escaping the control Of variations in
receipts and stocks, and was principally gov
crueI by news Of the acreage and condition
u the crops planted for the next season. This
last source Of influence on the market be-
comes stronger every year, because the i'm
proved Instrumentalities for obtaining intel
lg=uce OF the crop secures for that intell.-
geuce a faith that formerly had no existence,
or bat very slight. The effect OF crop news,
rs methodicaIy furnished by our cotton eX-
changes, must, for the future, be made more
account Of, by speculators, than has hitherto
bsen the case. While this is q broad principle
underlying the events OF the last two seasons,
there was particular fact that occurred this
last season that had much to do with the
event. For some months in the winter our
eastern uills worked only four days week,
instead OF six. The effect was that a certain
amount OF cotton they would have worked
mp II working full time, went on the market,
making the supply, % The foreign tEyer, about
equal 10 the average. The market OF the gear
may therefore be said 10 be made up Of
short supply plus the cotton not
taken un the usual proporaonl into our
home consumption, This fact appeared 10
receive little attention nom sPeculaiors. or
holder, Tor higher prices, and thus one infer
ence from the short-cTop theory was defect
i've, and consequently unsound. Still GnOth.
~ fact made the effect Of the short time al
the mills more striking-a short crop was
looked for from India, yet when the "short
and sudden" lall II receipts, and rise IN