Year: 1876

the contingency we exploited is not unlikely
to happen We desire to point out at present
another and more startling thing among the
possibilities of the canvass: but the contin-
gency is more remote and the reasoning by
which il is made apparent will be more hypo-
thetcal We showed yesterday that there
is something more than possibility, even
near approach to probability, that the vote
for the rag baby may decide the Presidential
election. We need not repeat in detail the
statistics and reasoning by which that proba-
bility was supported. 1t arises out OF the
extreme closeness Of the contest, which will
enable an insignificant body of voters in two
or three States to determine the result,
as the small Birney vote decided it
against Clay and in favor of Polk in 1S44.
II is generally conceded that New York is
the pivot of the present canvass, and that
the party which carries this State will elect
the next President. 1t is expected that the
vote in this State will be very close 1t is
possible that even single thousand. and
probable that fifteen or eighteen thousand
votes for the Cooper ticket would change the
result. In 1914 Clay received in this State
232, 1872 and Polk 237. 5ss votes-a difference
Of only i, 156 between the two principal
candidates. But the Birney ticket received
1882 votes in New York, or three times as
many as were needed to give the State to
Clay. The Birney votes were given by citi-
zens who really preferred Clay to Polk, but
elected the candidate most opposed to their
own views. The supporters of Mr.. Cooper,
although intending, like tho Birney men of
1874, merely to assert their own princi-
Piles, may likewise accomplish more than
they expected when they nominated
their ticket. 1t is certain that they intend to
have their ballots distributed at every
polling place in this city and throughout the
State, and they count upon from three to five
thousand votes in this city alone and three
or four times that number in the State at
large. If this expectation, which seems
modest enough, should be realized, there
is strong probability that the greenback
vote will turn the scale between Tiden and
Hayes and eloEt the President. This rea-
soning seems to rest on pretty solid basis,
if it be true that New York is as close and
evenly balanced as intelligent politicians
consider it. The other and more startling
possibility, which we are about to explain,
goes further into the realm of conjecture,
and depends on contingencies less likely to
happen. But it is, nevertheless, worth the
attention Of politicians.


In so very close a contest as that which
will terminate on the 7th Of November, if
Mr.. Cooper could get the electoral votes Of
any one State in the whole thirty-eight, the
Presidential election might be thrown into
the House Of Representatives. A plurality
does not constitute choice in the Electoral
Colleges; it requires an absolute majority Of
the whole number. If the leading candi-
date should fail short, even by single vote,
of tho requisite 1856, there would be no choice
by the people and the House would elect
for getting the electoral votes of any State
looks slender enough at present. but the
canvass may assume q new phase before the
end of next week.


II Mr.. Cooper should receive the electoral
votes of any State it will be those of Indiana.





imitation heresy and SO far as they have
taken different position it is simulated
conversion from motives of party expedi-
ency. The State platforms of both politi-
cal parties in Indiana for the last
two or three years have steadily indorsed in
fiation up to the time of the Presidential
nominations. If that could be presented as
the sole issue, disentangled from all others
and separated from party expediency, there
would be an imitation majority in that State
of four or five to one. We could make this
abundantly clear by copious citation of
facts but in this stage of the argument we
will merely assume it to be true, and at
tempt to trace the possible consequences.


If, before the close of next week, the re-
publican leaders in Indiana should become
satisfied that they have ne. chance of carry
ing the State, there is IN easy and dexterous
game by which they could take it's fifteen
electoral votes from Tilden. They have
only to carry their party over to the Peter
Cooper ticket, and thereby deprive Tilden
of fifteen electoral votes and probably defeat
his election. Morton is astute and bold
enough to play this game, and it is the most
adroit thing the Indiana republicans could
do if they become convinced, on the eve of
the election, that their party cannot carry
the State. In any event it would take so
many votes from Tilden and impair his
chances to that extent. 1t would probably
accomplish great deal more. In SO close q
contest the loss of fifteen electoral votes
might defeat Tilden and elect Hayes in the
Electoral Colleges; but if Tilden should
prove stronger in other States than the re-
pubicans expect the diversion of those
fifteen votes to the Cooper ticket might pre-
vent either of the principal candidates from
noftinn a rnaiorifv md tran sfer tho elacfion