Year: 1876

INTO SVuEs


Events in Europe, not directed by any
dominant will, are shaping themselves in
such a way that the world may wake up
some fine morning and discover the situa-
ton to be such that war must inevitably
follow. Already war is imminent, when but
three days since the general prospect prom
ised peace. This condition is the legiti-
mate result of the imbecile policy of the
British government in dealing with the
Turkish difficulty policy that is q marvel
Turkey exists as a government in Europe
only by the toleration of other Powers, and
if they declare formally that she must
modify her system in important particulars
she must do it. Their mutual distrust pre-
vents these Powers from consenting to the
they would be expelled but in SO far as they
can agree upon any course that Turkey shall
be advised or directed to take their will is
potential There is, however, one alterna-
tive. If Turkey can be sustained against
the will of her immediate neighbors by any
Power competent to oppose them, and pre-
pared to do 30 if they resort to force, then
she can reject the advice Of her neighbors
and defy them not otherwise. This has
been true every day since the Crimean war.
Turkey must accept the law from her neigh
bors or she must oppose their force, and the
Power that supports her in rejecting the will
of those neighbors must contemplate war in
support of Turkey as possible consequence
of its action or, if it is not prepared for
war and still encourages Turkey to resist the
will Of Russia, Prussia and Austria, it urges
toward its ruin the government it assumes
to befriend. This is the position to which
the Ministry has brought England. In May
last the three imperial Powers prepared
memorandum as to what Turkey should be
required to do in order to remedy the mis-
government in some of the northwestern
provinces, and to secure by timely reforms
such an amelioration in the condition of the
people as would remove the causes for the in
surrection which threatened the peace of that
part of the world. England, to the surprise
of Europe, refused to join with the Powers
in supporting that memorandum, and it was
never presented at Constantinople because
tae action of England was known to have
so for encouraged the Ottoman government
in the hope of possible resistance that it
would refuse to accede to the propositions
of the memorandum. The Powers did not
wish to put themselves in position to be
defied where the consequence was an armed


d. x:-l~
therefore, by its acts and the necessary in
ference from those acts, was compromised in
the dispute as the supporter of the Sultan.
War was made inevitable by the failure of
the memorandum yet the British Ministry
never dreamed that they could 60 to war on
such a case, or that England could cope with
the force which would be arrayed on the
other side. They seemed to have hoped for
some lucky accident to carry them through,
and it nearly came. Had the Turks swept
onward to Belgrade as they did to Alexinatz
the haphazard policy would have come out
with flying coiora But fortune was tickle;
the Turks were stopped; the tide is the
other way and it looks very much as if by
simple patience Prince Gortschakoff has
completely got the better of England in the
great game of diplomacy. England has led
Turkey into q position where she cannot
accep, the terms of peace proffered because
of her fear of her own fanatical people. and
thus Russia will be able to invade Turkey
and force upon her not only peace but that
very law which but for England Turkey
would have quietly accepted last May.
Moreover Russia will move her troops, if she
once begins, great way, and when the treaty
of peace is made it will be on the basis of the
,,ti possidctis.