Year: 1876

in a mine for what lies on the surface. The
conjectures as to the bearing of the place on
the prospects of particular aspirants, and the
influence their friends may have had on the
selection, seem futile when there are obvious
and sufficient reasons apart from personal
favor. The Convention has been called at
Cincinnati because it is indispensable to the
success of the republican ticket that the
party should carry Ohio in the October cleo
ton. Since Pennsylvania has changed her
election to November Ohio is the key of
the situation in every important polit-
ical contest. The moral weight of great
victory there is worth thirty thousand votes
in each of the great States of New York and
Pennsylvania, and is certain to turn the
scale in every doubtful State which holds an
election in November. Last fall Pennsylva-
MIA was lost to the democrats from the morn
ing on which the result of the Ohio election
was published, and the democratic majority
in New York fell thirty-ive thousand below
what it was the year before. To carry Ohio is
like taking a height which commands all the
defences of a fortified town. 1t is to help to
secure this commanding advantage that Gin
cinnati has been selected. We suppose the
relative strength of candidates stands very
much as it did before


The time is not significant, although
somewhat later than the average of republican
national conventions That of 1872, how
ever, was also held in June, but little
earlier in the month-the 5th instead of the
| l4th The lateness of the date is favorable
to President Grant if he meditates grand
coup in foreign affairs to aid his nomination
At any rate, the 14th of June fixes definite
limit to his efforts in that direction. 1t is
too common to reason as if the whole sum-
mer and autumn were Mt his disposal,
whereas he has only the five months
that intervene before the meeting of
the Republican National Convention. If
he fails to get the nomination he will fail en-
tirely, and there will be no talk of third
term thereafter. The difficult part Of Gen
eral Grants canvass is to control the Ma
tional Convention. Whatever public meas
ure or stroke of policy he undertakes with
that purpose must be brought on the carpet
before the delegates are chosen, or at least
before the Convention assemblies. If he
should make some astounding coup while
the Convention is in session or on the eve of
its meeting his motive would be so suspi-
cious, rather so transparent, that all his
rivals for the nomination would denounce it
as the bold act of a demagogue to spring q
sudden trap on the Convention. II
would be classed with the startling
stories suddenly put in circulation on
the day of an election to which
our political slang af1ixes the name of "roor-
backs A Spanish outrage on our flag, or
Spanish butchery of our citizens, swiftly
resented and punished, just as the Conven-
tion is to assemble and in the very crisis of
the fate of candidates, would damage Presi-
dent Grant more than it could help him,
because it would destroy all confidence in
his character. The country would believe,
and his own party would not deny, that the
whole thing had been planned to influence
the Convention, and such stratagem would
be regarded as an affront to its dignity and
independence If we are to have a war with
Spain it must appear to proceed from
public motives and not to be prompted
by reckless personal ambition. 1t would
never do for President Grant to pre-
cipitate the country into foreign
embodiment at such a time, for he could get
nobody to believe that it was not "a put up
job" He is too good strategist to bring
on an infammatory foreign difficulty in
coniuncture when it would so certainly re-
coil against him by wearing the appearance
of stupendous political trick Whatever
General Grant does in this line he must do
at a considerable interval before the Conven-
ton meets, if he expects it to help his NOM
ination.


All his wishes, plans and efforts are
bounded, for the present, by horizon which
does not extend beyond the month Of May.
If he needs a war to help him to the re-
publican nomination he must bring it on
soon or make up his mind to definitely give
it up. The temptation to begin a war for
his personal advantage will be entirely re-
moved if he should not be nominated at
Cincinnati, and greatly diminished if he
should be nominated.


In the event of his nomination he will
expect the united support of the republican
party, and feel that he is strong enough to
secure an election without recourse to
desperate expedients. The reaction against
the democratic party in the election of last
year, and it's weakening internal dis
sensions on the currency, together with
the expected republican reinforcement
on the anti-Catholic issue. will make
General Grant hopeful and confident if he
gets the nomination. He would prefer to
rest his claims on the soundness of his finan-
cial views and an appeal to the steady-going
conservative classes rather than unsettle the
public finances and private business by q
foreign war.