Year: 1875

"Nothing can be Predicted with Certainty


About the Future in America"


The annual reports of Messrs. Smith, Ed
wards & Co., of Liverpool, which has just
been received, has occasioned unusual interest
in commercial circles. As the circular is one
which will be read with interest by all class
es, we present it herewith, and direct atten-
tion to the plain, practical truths contained
therein:


In dealing with the prospects Of our mar
ket for the coming year, perhaps the first
thing to be taken into account is the great
subsidence of speculative feeling in all de-
partments of the cotton trade. Three years
of almost unbroken loss to the importers Of
cotton and shippers of goods have drained the
floating capital of the trade, and left the bulk
of speculative operators without resources
or credit. We seem at last to have left be.
hind US the convulsions caused by the Ameri-
slow, steady laws ofsupply and demand, as it
did in the years that preceded the war. The
upward movements Of our staple are now
feebly supported by spectators, and are inca
pable of being developed to any extent with
out the general concurrence of the trade
Any money that has been made of late years
has been by those who "beared" the market,
and consequently there are always a number
ready to sell upon any improvement, in the
expectation of buying back at profit. The
result of this state Of things is, that instead of
speculative action keeping prices above their
legitimate level, as we we're accustomed to for
many years in the cotton trade, its tendency
is now to depress them below their natural
level, and no great improvement can be
brought about without a clear conviction
widely spread all through the trade that prices
are too low.


1t may be noted, in the second place, that
great change has come over the public mind
this last year in regard to our supply of cot.
ton. Up till then there was no sure ground
for believing that an adequate supply could
be obtained, year by year, at low prices, say
at nearly the rates that ruled before the Amer
lean war.


Any descent to those rates that had taken
place since the war had always (prior to this
Year, produced violent upward reactions, and
the opinion long prevailed that we could not
draw the supply of cotton required for the
spinning power of the world under Sd. to 3d..
per pound for American cotton, and Sd. for
fair Dhollerah.


That conviction had been dispelled by the
events Of the past year. America has planted
and grown large crop following a season Of
low prices, and Bombay has shipped the larg-
est crop on record at about SD. for fair Dhol-
lerah, and instead of reducing the area of
growth, the government report shows an In
crease in Berar, and it is believed that quite
as much land is sown elsewhere as last year.
The fact is, that Notwithstanding the immense
drop in prices, the past three years, amount
ing to I'D. per pound in American cotton from
the highest point of 1872, there are no signs
whatever Of reduced cotton supply, but quite
the opposite.


1t might have been expected that the low
prices which the American planters are receiv.
ing for this crop, as compared with previous
years, would have caused much grumbling,
and threats of great reduction in planting
but we see no signs Of this; they are market.
ing their crop freely, making fewer complaints
than usual about the price, and saying little
or nothing, of short planting next spring.
From all we can learn, the present crop is pay
ing well enough it has been raised at much
less cost than any since the war; wages and
prices Of all kinds have gone down immense


y in America, and VIC incline to think that
I'd. or Sd. per pound, in Liverpool, now pays
the planter as we'll as Cd. or 10d. per pound
did four years ago.


There is no doubt that the commercial cri
sis in America has had far-reaching effects
That country is passing through the most Sc
we're ordeal since 1887; the ''shrinkage" in
values of all kinds has been enormous, and a
great portion of the commercial country is
bankrupt the unwholesome speculation gen
Grated by the war, and the inflated currency,
is now bearing its bitter fruit, and there is
hardly branch of trade that is profitable
even the New England mills are unable to pay
their usual dividends, and retrenchment and
economy are the order of the day all over the
country. The result of this is that the people
are thrown back in the cultivation of the soil
railway extension is stopped, speculative en-
terprise is dead, the accustomed stream OF
capital from Europe is suspended, and the
people are thrown back, as they have not been
for many years, upon the growth of raw pro-
duce At the same time the rate of wages
and the cost of living are immensely reduced,
and many good authorities believe that the
South can grow cotton pro6tably at the price
that ruled before the war, say I'd. for mid
ding in Liverpool.


The key to the position lies in this fact-it
America can grow crops of four to four and a
half millions at I'd. to 3d., cotton cannot rule
much, if any, higher as permanency. If, on
the other hand, cultivation falls off at this
price, rise to a more remunerative price
must take place.


With regard to the size of the American
crop we have been tormented with even more
America. The bureau in September and Oc-
tober issued statements which indicated three
and quarter millions, which it afterward
raised to three and q half millions. The
Commercial Chronicles most pains.taking
authority-issued an elaborate estimate this
month of 100000 bales minimum, limiting
not obscurely that it might considerably ex-
ceed that figure, and the bulk of private ad-
vices from America for some weeks past have
adopted four and a quarter millions as fair
guess. During the excessive receipts Of the
first half of December, four and half mil
lions was looming into view, and would soon
have becomethe favorite guess had not a
break in receipts occurred. There is no doubt
that the natural inference from the receipts
at the ports up till the last ten days was four
and half millions; but for the moment these
extreme views have subsidized, and four and a
quarter millions may be taken as the favorite
figure. If this proves to be true estimate,
this crop has been forwarded more rapidly
than any one since the war, and, with one or
two exceptions, than any one before it. 1t is