Year: 1876

THE BUSINESS OUTLOOK.


A View of the State of Affairs from n Busi-
ness Center.


Is there a sound and real revival of
business9 asks the New York Herald,
and it answers the question by saying:
On the whole, we believe there is. The
evidences OF this business revival attract
attention, as we see by the newspapers,
not only in New York, but in Boston,
Chicago, in st. Louis-at Ill the centers
of trade, in fact. There are more people
buying; the Southern trade is said to be
uncommoaly brisk this year; Western
commerce also is brisk, and merchants
from all parts of the country are replen'
ishing their stocks in manner which
seems to show that not only are their
shelves bare, but they have, on survey
of the condition of their customers, con-
cluded that these will buy and will have
money to pay. There can be no doubt,
in fact, of the present activity of trade.
The main question is: Will it continue,
or is it only squirt, spasmodic move
ment2 We believe we see reasons for
holding that it is not spasmodic, but
that, unless some now unforeseen cause
intervenes, it will continue, and We are
at last on the upward way.


Commodities of all kinds are at pres
ent uncommonly cheap. Producers OF
all kinds have at last suited themselves
to the markets. The anxiety to make
and sell has brought the ingenuity Of
manufacturers into use, and people can
not only buy cheaper than at any time
since 1860, but they find it more easy to
buy what they want. During the great
rush and excitement Of the speculative
period, producers ceased to take partic-
ular pains to study the tastes and wishes
of customers; but this has now changed
for the better in many, and, indeed, in
almost all departments.


The county is really rich. It has
been vigorously economizing since 1873,
and three years of strict economy do
wonders among forty millions of peo-
pie. The sum Of our savings as a ma
ton in year Of economy amounts to q
vast deal of wealth. We have been
saving for three long and tedious years !;
and while this economy has been forced
and distressful with considerable part
of our people-with those engaged and
employed in manufacturing is un-
deniable that the farmers and planters,
who are the bulk of the population, have
had prosperous years. Even last year
the farmers OF central Illinois made it
their chief complaint that they could
find nobody to borrow their surplus
money and give them what they thought
q fair rate OF interest. But the times
are not hard where men have enough to
eat and chiefly growl because nobody
will borrow their surplus cash. During
all the hard times we have had in the
main good crops and have received
good prices for them, and thus we have
bad an unvarying source OF growing
wealth.


It was necessary to stop for while ;
and when, in 1878, confidence received
80 general and severe a shock, and
thousands who had imagined themselves
comfortable or wealthy were suddenly
ruined, the panic Of doubt seized every.
body all enterprise was checked; all
Investments became doubtful all who
had money sought only to keep what
they had; everybody's affairs under
went scrutiny, and it was soon seen
that there had been immense over
trading. Bankruptcy-staved of dur
ing prosperous years-was no longer to
be put off. A great part of our mer-
chlnts, all over the country, appeared
in the insolvent lists, and then begun
that long and dolorous process which
appears at last to have weeded out the
unsound business houses and to have,
at great suffering to individuals, left the
country, where it must be placed before
we can have sound and lasting pros
perity, on the "bottom rock" Indi-
vidual failures continue and will con-
time Dut there is no longer the ma
terial for O panic. Even the failure of
the great coal combination, vast as were
the losses it entailed on multitude of
people, has scarcely caused a ripple in
the commercial world. Three years ago
such q break would have brought
general and crushing disaster.


Confidence, so severely shaken, slowly
returns. Merchants, manufacturers and
producers in general watch the market
and the condition of the country with
anxious care, and they see not actual
prosperity, for We have not come to that
vet, but they do see q return OF conf
dence; they see that losses have been
measured; that failures have been settled
up; that prices are low, in many articles
very low; that it is safe and advantage
GUS to buy; that the mass of consumers
need 10 replenish and are able to pay;
and thus and for these reasons trade ls
slowly reviving on a sound basis and
with prices at which prudent merchant
can even afford to hold his goods with
out fear OF loss. Another reason for
general revival of confidence in the fu-
ture lies in the fact that the hard times
have greatly decreased the expenditures
of or various governments, town, city,
State and Federal. Our public affairs
are more prudently conducted now than
at any time since 1860, and here is
great saving which the community
quickly feels. There is general belief
that whichever party wins this fall we
shall have wiser legislation at Washing
ton. There is belief that the currency
question draws near to settlement.
Men look for ard demand reforms, not
only in this matter, but in all legislation
which affects the production snd sale OF
commodities. The mass Of men have
como to see that the country is not real
" poor, but rich in all the appliances OF
industry, rich in everything which is
help to the creation Of wealth, and that
what is needed is not beyond our own
reach, if only we choose to seize It,


What we require now to draw us out
of the slough in which we have been
mired since 1873 is, continued prudence
on the part of business men; second, q
sound and stable currency, which shall
enable US to carry on business on busi-
ness principles, and not as gamblers;
and finally, such revision OF the laws
which affect commerce and production
as shall enable us to sell our surpluspro-
ducts abroad without loss. These three
things granted the recovery OF prosperi-
ty, though certain to be slow, will be
sure of lasting.