Year: 1876

portant, query IS uppefmost every
spring and fall since the panic in the
thoughts of the public, who have
been anticipating revival of busi-
ness. But, unfortunately, each season
has passed without the fulfillment of
their long-wished for hopes. The
question, therefore, is serious one,
when that revival may fairly be ex-
pected. But this cannot be very
easily answered, nor can any date be
fixed.


TO determine the time when trade
will probably revive, we must review
the causes of its partial suspension.
Most obvious among these was over
trading. The war and resulting in
flation of currency and prices begot
an extravaganza of living and doing
business that, long kept up, could not
but lead to disaster Vast stocks of
goods of many kinds were made, and
but half consumed by the buyers
Enough was spent by many persons
in week to provide them reasonably
for a month. The result was that
production IN many branches really
outran consumption, and when the
sure reaction came it found years.
supply on hand of many commod-
tiles. Now, production cannot be
expected to become active until stocks
OH hand are exhausted. This will
not take place till all the old clothes
that can be made to look in any way
respectable have been worn out. The
same rule applies in other directions,
and until existing reserves of grain,
iron, leather, ETC., are slowly and
cautiously consumed, an active bust
ness in most articles of commerce is
not likely to take place.


Even when this consumption has
taken place, is it likely to be followed
by anything but timorous, hand-to-
mouth mode of production and sale?
The real cause of the paralysis of
trade Is not the scarcity of currency.
nor is 1t contraction thereof. 1t is
contraction of something far greater
than currency, a contraction of cred
it. Money is not scarce, for it is
heaped up in places of deposit, wait
ing acceptable employment. What
has been for years contracting, what
sank to almost nothing in 1873, and
thus caused the long-growing panic
to burst forth in tremendous force, is
lack of confidence. Men have grown
to trust each other less and less, un-
der the demoralizing influence of
over-government, over-taxation, and
legal-tender paper. Owners fear to
trust property out of their own hands;
banks and loaners distrust borrowers
ability, and even their disposition to
pay, and hence dread to aid enterprise,
energy, and skill, as the latter de-
serve. Mills and mines cannot OBJ
tain funds to keep them gong, be-
cause owners of available funds see
no certainty of getting their money
back. While this widespread dis
trust lasts, it is impossible for trade
to revive, especially when the heavi-
ness of taxation, and the fluctuations
in purchasing power of the currency,
make it possible and even probable
that they will be stripped of their
honest gains. Trade will fully revive
when men have regained confidence
in each other, and when taxation and
currency are on sound and stable
basis.


To bring about this combination
may be long and painful progress,
but it is the only road out of present
troubles. The sharpers and swim
dlers, of whatever kind and degree
must be ostracised. Honest men
must come to the front and take the
lead. Accommodation must be ex-
tended to trusty borrowers, and to
them alone. Law must thoroughly
protect every citizen in the full and
undisturbed possession of his own.-
All swindling, under whatever pre-
text or disguise must be certainly
punished; if not by courts, by all
events by public opinion. Dishonest
men must be made to feel, whatever
their wealth or position, their dis
honesty forfeits and destroys their
social standing. When honesty is
commercially and socially at pre-
MUM, and roguery commercially and
socially far below par, trade will re-
vlve and flourish.