Year: 1871

Ing Up Between Russia and Germany.


A cable despatch, special to the HERALD,
informs us that the Roumanian government
has received q protest from Constantinople
against treaty, said to have been concluded
some two years ago, between the government
of the Gear on the one hand and the govern
ment Of Prince Charles on the other. The
treaty in question gave Russia certain privi-
leges in the matter of consular jurisdiction,
and the government of the Sultan protests
against 1t on the ground that 1t is in direct
violation Of the terms of the Treaty of Paris.
Our correspondent adds that the protest Is
credited to the influence of Bismarck. Bis
marck. It is said, is perfectly Indifferent to
the interests of Prince Charles. His purpose
seems to be to hurry up difficulty with
Russia, and, apparently with this end in view,
he has persuaded the Porte to make bold
assertion of its sovereign rights. There is
something truly Bismarckian about this stroke
of policy. 1t completely isolates Russia from
the rest of Europe. For a time 1t did seem as
if Russia might succeed in playing the role Of
the friend of Turkey. Bismarck, however,
with his usual sharpness, has got ahead of
Gortchakoff, and in the event of war
breaking out Turkey will be the useful ally,
not of Russia, but of Germany and Austria.
On the part of the Prussian Chancellor this is
a bold stroke Of policy, and 1t will not be won
derful if in the early summer it shall have pro-
duced such bitter fruit that war will be a
necessity. Germany must have the German
provinces Of Austria sooner or later, and Aus
tria must find compensation in the Lower
Danube. In other words, Francis Joseph will
give up to Germany Upper and Lower Austria,
and take Roumania In exchange. This is
what we have always said. and our predic-
tions now begin to find fulflment.


It Is quite manifest that Russia, on the one
hand, and Germany and Austria on the other,
are fully aware that a conflict must come;
and we are not in ignorance of the fact that
both sides are making war preparations on the
most gigantic scale. Prussia has secured and
laid aside her enormous war fund, and from
English sources we have information that
Russia is rapidly concentrating her forces on
the southwestern frontier, apparently with the
object of overawing Austria. This action
would seem to indicate an intention on the
part Of Russia to take the initiative in the
inevitable conflict for the supremacy Of
Europe; But we do not believe that
any such intention exists on the
part of the Russian government. The
concentration Of the troops in grand
camps is no proof that it is intended to assume
the offensive, and may be only dictated by
prudential motives. Owing to the great ex-
tent of the Russian territory, and tie limited
capacity OF her railways to transport troops
and mat<riel, it is of the first Importance to
assemble the army on strategic points, so
that in the event of hostilities the different
detail. Germany, with her splendidly organ
lied transport system, can concentrate rapidly
the whole strength of the Confederation on any
given point at very short notice, and the Rus
SLAMS have had examples In the wars with
Austria and France Of the danger of keeping
troops scattered and isolated when exposed
to attack from a bold and enterprising enemy,
and they are resolved not to be guilty of the
imprudence which brought disaster to the
arms of both these Powers. 1t is to this cause
that we are inclined to attribute the reported
concentration of troops towards the south
western frontier; and 1t furnishes q
more reasonable explanation than to
suppose that Russia has resolved to pre-
cipitate struggle for which she cannot be
prepared, and In which defeat involves ruin
and the loss Of oil she has gained within the
past century. Though we are aware that un-
ceasing activity has prevailed In the Russian
arsenals since the outbreak of the Franco
Prussian war, yet we believe that even the
supply Of field ordnance and mGtfriel is still
defective. In the matter Of army organization
the now system has not had time to be con-
solidatcd, and though the army has been
greatly increased in numbers we doubt if it's
efficiency has not been temporarily impaired.
OF course all these considerations are fully
recognized both at 81. Petersburg and Berlin,
but they suggest very different lines OF policy
at the rival ca pitals. vii


It is evident that the interest of Russia
points to delay, and we cannot believe that her
statesmen would rashly enter upon struggle
where there Is 80 much to lose when the
chances Of success are so doubtful. We are
convinced that Russia will not take the inita-
tive but will rather seek to restrain Prussia
and Austria by such demonstration of force
as will make them pause before entering lightly
on war policy. This we believe to be the
| true solution Of the movement Of the Russian
forces. The voting of the War Fund bill under
extraordinary pressure from Bismarck, and the
extensive war preparations Of Prussia have pro-
badly alarmed Russia, SO that she has made up
her mind to prepare for eventualities. Bis
marcks speech in the German Parliament left
no doubt as to the purpose to which the war
fund was to be applied. 1t is true, he carefully