Year: 1878

The stagnation Of trade set in before the in
surrection in Bosnia and Herzegovina ind-
Gated the coming revolution in the Ottoman
Empire. Panslavism is not chargeable with
the original phenomenon. Its real cause must
be sought rather in the destructiveness Of the
Franco-German war and in the feverish out
burst of commerce which followed it. In
place of quietly repairing the losses Of war
by the economies Of peace, the nations with
one accord We'd in new expenditure. They
acted as if the war had made instead of un-
making, had produced instead of consuming.
The Eastern difficulty succeeded, and made
chronic q condition OF things which would
have else terminated naturally, after q
which r-production had glutted every mar
ket. When no European power could feel
secure against being sucked into the vortex,
capital, always timid, simply locked up it's
bourses have been reduced, from lack Of their
ordinary game to feeding on each other.
Other circumstances besides the Eastern
question have contributed to the depression,
50 far as Great Britain is concerned: The
famine in India, accompanied by that in
China, has helped to shut up the mills in Lam
cashire. The stagnation of trade in the
United States has transferred that country
from the number OF our customers to the
ranks Of our competitors. Pennsylvania
Sheffield and Birmingham at home and
abroad, even at al actual loss to themselves,
to the alternative of closing their costly manu-
factories and winding up their trade. But the
crisis in the east Of Europe has rendered in
tolerable what else might have been borne.
1t has not injured British trade so much by
subtractng customers from our manufac-
turers as by introducing an element of vague
ness and insecurity into our own politics.
When 1t was never sure from day to day that
we might not find ourselves principals and
beligerents, capitalists would have been mad
to commence undertakings which war must
have crushed and ruined.


The uncertainty which has paralyzed enter
prise is at an end, at any rate for the time.
Capital will come forth from its hiding places
to bask in the sunshine Of apparently assured
peace. It has, however, been of late unaccus-
toned to exert itself. There is some danger
that it may be tempted now to Try wasteful
experiments from sheer impatience of mac
tivity. Much has to be done before the old
condition Of healthy enterprise can be restored,
when the nations generally could show they
were increasing year by year in wealth. The
fear excited by. the preponderance of the esti-
mated values OF imports over exports is a mere
bugbear The principle on which exports are
valuable with the anticipated profit upon them
makes it q matter OF course that English trade
should show larger value OF imports. At
returns, not Of England only, but Of every
country, have recently been manifest
ing a growth in the proportionable value
of imports and EXPORTS indicates very plainly
that the world has been drawing upon the
accumulated capital which even the least
progressive State possesses. The amount SO
withdrawn is not to be replaced by a few dar-
ing strokes. Any deficiency can be made
good only by a continuance Of the economy
which, however compulsory, is the redeeming
feature Of the recent depression. If we have
not been augmenting our capital, we have at
least unlearnt the habit OF squandering it,
which rendered the previous period Of glow
ing prosperity a dangerous crisis for CONNER
cial morality. So soon as the world shows an


honest field for English capital, there is cap
ital enough and to spare at its disposal But
semblance of revival Of trade would be
dearly bought if it encouraged a renewal OF


the financing spirit which went round the
provide the jungle and the forest with a sys-
tenn of communications perfect in everything
except the passengers and the goods.