Year: 1879

| AhS AohoWiuS TeularkS relative to the
value OF cotton in the prosperous times, on
which the worlds trade is again entering
are contributed by well.kuown merchan,
aud authority on cotton, and We submit
them to our readers for what theyAr& ~ yorth
without accepting them asswh3fiy express
lug our own views. They raise. highly
important question, andsany of our readers
who may desire to eluoidate it may consid-
er our space at their disposal


What is cotton werth1p prosperous times?
The fact that the world s annual production
OF cotton has each year fallcn below the
consumption Tor five years makes the above
question unusually Interesting, if not per-
picking to all who arc interested in the trade.
| The production.o of nearly all other arti-
EclseARgsxyacxaed coasnmp tio.li iil incroasS5s >
ratio cachycar that the depression lasted
Now that the depression is past and every
| thing is returning to ante panic values, what
IS to be the price of cotton, which is so re.
markable an exception to the laws that seem
to have governed the production and con-
sumption Of all other articles? In wheat
there IS temporary scarcity, owing to bad
harvcSts, but everybody expects to sec this
rlShted next season. Not so with cotton.
The four last seasons have been more nearly
tauitlcss than any four ever known in sue
ccssion.


1t is quite certain that the cotton proGuc-
ton Of the world can only be brought up to
the steadily increasing consumption by the
stimulus Of high price. Unlike wheat,
which is grown in all the climates most con.
genial to the most entcrprisiug aud ener-
setlc races OF men, cotton is only produced
in the most enervatingclimates The de.
velopment of cotton culturcis slow. 1t
never proceeds by 'lcaps and bounds"
under any stimulus; but still it is not
exempt from the laws of trade and does
respond to an advance in price by in
creased production.


During the two years preceding the panic
of 1873 the price Of middling cotton in
Liverpool ranged from about 8 pence to
about pence, the average price being not
far from 81 pence. There was then fully
million bales more in the hands Of the
trade throughout Europe and this country
than there was at any time during the past
two years.


At this point most naturally arises the
question, what would have been the price
in 1872 and 1873 if there had been mil.
lion bales less in the world than there was
or, in other words, if tn, average stocks had
been but little more than half what they
were? 1t may be doubted if anv cotton
merchant would reply, less than one shilling
to fifteen pence sterling.


s;-.- .h- r-.:~ 30 zoSo .L-.- ,.~,u uuuu
at least three very strong "bull" spccula-
tions caused entirely by the fact that tho
worlds consumption was each year eating
into from two to three hundred thousand
bales Of the reserve stocks Ofcourse these
spcculations were not sustained, because we
had not turned the course; trade was still
on the down grade and no appr, citation in
the price of anything could be sustained


In the meantime stocks continue to 60
down, getting less every year, So that, for
two or three seasons it has been very diff
cult, even with depressed trade, to exc out
the old crop until the rew began to arrive
This year and last it was only accomplished
by short time, and by the two earliest crops
ever known and probably the earliest that
will be known in our time.


At last after nearly six years depression.
during which nearly everybody seemed to
want to sell everything and to buy nothing,
except to supply absolute needs, we arc all
at once in the midst of movement that
looks like resurrection. Industry and
commerce have woke up throughout the
whole world as if from long sleep, and in
the very youth and vigor Of this movement
we are under the necessity Of reducing con.
sumption to bring it within the compass of
this years crop. We have no more reserve
stock to draw upon. 1t is best that the
world should understand this at the begin
ming of the season. At this point, another
question calls for an answer: what price
will reduce consumption within the limit
required? The most sogacious may well
confess his inability to answer it. Under
ordinary circumstances, many might venture
an answer satisfactory at least to themselves.
The consumers Of AMI traders in cotton
goods have been buying from hand to mouth
for years, and they began this season in a
state Of hunger rarely if ever known before
One penny or two pence advance was suffi-
cent during the depression, but it may well
be doubted if two pence at present would
have any influence at all on consumption.
1t is the object of these suggestions t. raise
the question for discussion rather than to
answer it, On the answer will depend
the answer to the other question at the
head Of these remarks.-E j. ID. in ~ Y
Com. Bulletin.


.. ANOTHER VIEW OF THE SAME sUBJECr


NEW YORK, October "A.


TO the Editor Of tie Commercial Bulletin:
While recognizing the ability of your cor
respondent II. j. D." as set forth in his
article on cotton, published in to-day's But
htm, [ would beg to throw out few .ug
gestions.