Year: 1874

,Gslj Prospects for Fall Trade.i 1sti3j


The following extract from the preface
to the July issue of 4. G. Dun & Co.'s
Reference Book is interesting as showing
the views of that well posted firm on the
prospects of trade for the autumn: ia


The circumstances of the past six months
have not been favorable to trade. The
effects of the panic Of last September have
fingered longer than was anticipated by
many, bat these effects have been more ap-
parent in restricting trade than in prOduc-
ing disaster. Considering the suddenness
and violence of the crisis of last autumn,
the commercial fabric of the country has
not shown serious signs of disorder, If the
number or Importance OF mercantile fall
ures are to be taken as an index, to
its condition 1t is a fact, as surprising
as it is gratifying, that within the
past six months, there have absolutely been
fewer failures in number, and certainly
fewer in prominence, than for the same
period in the average of years On the
contrary, we have had abundant opportu-
nifty for observing very remarkable re-
duction OF Indebtedness in all classes, and
in almost all; sections of the country. 1t is
safe to say that the internal mercantile





more than two-thirds what it was at this
time last year. Indeed, so great has the
tendency been toward liquidation, that it
alone has been as much cause OF Q re-
stricted business and hampered trade, as
any want Of confidence in the stability Of
the country, or the safety Of credit. The
fright that the debtor class received in Sep
tember has had it's effect, and the very
prominence of the failures that immedi-
6nnnlu locsou
that has been needed. eso-,, .....,..


If, them, it is good to be reducing
debts-if it is wise to owe two dollars where
last wear three were due-the six months of
dull times which have been experienced
are not without some compensation. With
this consideration in mind, the future does
not wear so gloomy look as might be an
ticipated; in view of the almost universally
depressed tone of public sentiment regard
ing the condition of business. It would be
idle to deny that the dull trade of the past
ak months has made some inrOads upon
the surplus capital of not q few, for ex-
to the decline of profits, while the depreci-
alton Of values in many departments has
been very marked. Many trader is there.
tore poorer to-day than he was year ago.
Should the restricted business continue,
disaster may follow, and failures be fre-
quent; but it is surely q reasonable expec-
tation that the autumn trade will be .
fair one. All the indications that in
former years would be taken as basis
for this hope are presented now. An unusu-
ally abundant crop of almost every prOduc.


ton is promised in almost all sections of


the country. Prices for these products are


maintained at remunerative figures, and
the steady gain in the value of our exports,
which the past six months has shown, is
almost certain Of repetition in the next half
year. The importatiOns show large de-
crease; the stocks of all kinds OF mer-
chandise are confessedly low in all retail
and consumptive quarters, and we confess
we can not see why there should not be q
institutions of the country have been well
sustained, all the machinery Of commerce
is in running order, no violent shock has
been given to the currency by legislation,
and there is nothing to prevent reason
able activity in those articles that go to
make up legitimate trade. The new rail-
road construction account, the iron interest,
building operations, and other departments
that have anticipated the demands of the


time by years, will not unlikely continue
restricted and depressed, but that is no


good reason why there should not be fair
business done in merchandise.
That there are plenty of good parties to


whom it is safe to sell the within volume
shows. With constant watchfulness by ten
Thousand eyes, we have carefully noted the
effect of the hard times upon individual
cases, and have not failed to mark not only
financial weakness and lack OF ability, but
also the ''steady continuance in well doing
of the vast army of traders who are en-
rolled in the within columns. We have had
occasion in many instances to reduce


ratings-it has, alas, been rare that we have
had to improve them-but we rejoice tha,
| the condition of the country warrants US in
| retaining so many in the position that 9
year ago found them, notwithstanding 81
severe a strain as the past nine months
have witnessed. i+zj


We need hardly say that in keeping pacs
with the individual history of these nln'
| months large additions have been made tt
our accumulated store of facts, which mus
| be of great service to those who would dis
! pense credit with safety. These are th'
| tim9s that try men-their stability. thei
capacity and their claims to credit. Henc


the necessity for all the knowledge that cal
| be gleaned and injustice is done to all con
| cerned if reliance is placed upon q mer


rating when the detailed reports on tn
| records of our various offices contain infOl
nations, suggestions and facts which n
| marking can convey, however ingenious tn


key or close its Interpretation. We there


fore more earnestly than ever before urg


upon our subscribers the desirability q


avaiIing themselves Of all the facilitie


which their continued liberal support en-;


bles us to provide for them.


The number of new names inserted in th


book since March last is 1884, the mum be


of names obliterated is SO, 274, and the tota


number of names now in this work


6249i9. TheI alterations in ratings al


52,7o8, and in sty les l6, 5000 that the Ell


tire number of changes effected in this boo


within the last four months foot up to witt


every dav. We submit this as an indie,


ton Of the energy and activity displayed b


our agency.