Year: 1877




For a week past, all our news-and equally
so all rumors received-from tine seat of wal


point unmistakably to preparations for the


winter. The first task for Russia has beer


already set, and until that is completed, we


need hardly look tor important operations in


other quarters Turkeys line of defence is


indicated with similar clearness, both by the


necessities of her position and the recent


movement of Mehemet Ali, the only one OF


her generals who is free to move his army.


Snow on the Balkans, and heavy rains from


their base to the Danube, have given dismal


foretas'e of winter, and the exigency of pro-


viding for the inclement season is even great
er than that of winning new victories this
year.


There is no Doubt that Osman Pasha Gen.
tinues to hold Plevna with grip which will
not be easily loosened. The place is pro-
visioned for two CT three months At least. His
communications with Widdin are still intact,
although those with Sophia have been dis
turbed of late, and lie will probably be allie
to make all necessary preparations for sustain
ing a long siege. If General Todleben's
opinion is correctly re ported, it will indeed be
long and laborious work for the Russians;
but tie capture of the place is an inevitable
condition of their further advance. Suleiman
Pasha's position at the Shipka Pass only diff
fers from Osmans at Plevna in this, that he
is not beseiged, but, by the general plan of
resistance, is compelled to keep his place. 1t
would be nearly correct TO say tia: one-half
of the pass is held by each antagonist, met in
dead lock of strength, which neither dares
relax. On the east, the retirement of Mehemet
Ali beyond the LON is undoubtedly for the
purpose OF taking the strongest defensible line
for the winter. This he will find in the hills
to the eastward of the river, and at the same
time he will shorten his communications with
Rasgrad and Shumla. BY holding the town
of Osman Bazaar as his extreme left, he will
cover all the eastean passes of the Balkans,
except the Demir Kapu, which will still be
nearer to him than to the Russians at Tirno-
va. But it is not likely that he will be at
tackled in force while the Crescent continues
to wave over Plevna.


The strategy prescribed for Russia is equal
ly plain. If she cannot wholly isolate Osman
Pasha, so that the capture of Plevna shall
give her also his army, she must at all hazards
prevent his retreat upon Sophia. This neces-
sity explains the attitude of Servia, reluctant
to join in the war, restrained by Austrian
influence, yet now holding-or soon to hold
the power of final victory in her unsteady
hands. Unless considerable garrison has
been left in Widd n, which is not probable, a
well differed Servian army, operating in the
rear Of that fortress, would be able to Lut of
Plevna, and then, without even waiting for
its fall, to clear the way for Russian advance
on Sophia. But if Osman Pasha saves the
greater part of his army, he will instantly
occupy tie western passes of the Balkans, .as
Mehemet Ali will occupy the eastern. With
the aid of the spade, which is becoming a
more formidable weapon than the bayonet in
the hands of the Turkish soldier, stronger
line of defence than that of the Danube will
confront the Russians next year. And this
terrific contingency is the result of two almost
stupid blsnders-the failure to
occupy or even to examine Plevna, after
crossing the Dan ube, and the failure to sup
port General Ghourko by an army corps after
he had crossed the Balkans, If Russia desires
o prevent such contingency, she must
educe her Grand Dukes to the rank of honor
Try spectators, and replace their parade adju-
ants. now in command, by soldiers of expe-
ience and intelligence.