Year: 1866

against &c, 900 bales same time last year.
The establishment of peace on the CONT
nent of Europe leaves only one prominent


cause affecting the rate of consumption, L.


g., the state of the money market. The re-


duction of the rate of discount to 7 per
cent. by the Bank of England removes all
apprehension on this score. We are in
clined to the opinion that there will be O
progressive decline in the rate until per-
haps three or four per cent. will be reach
ed, under an increased accumulation of
bullion by the Bank of England On this
topic, as all important element of the value
of Cotton, we would observe, as an evil
dence of the anomalous condition of the
money market in England, that while the
rate of discount by the Bank of England,
on the Sd of August, was 10 per cent, and
the bullion in her vaults were ETA, 900, 900,
the rate Of discount by the Bank of France
was 81 per cent, and her stock of specie
G28, 100000, double its amount in the
former, and more than three times the rate
Of discount. 1t is impossible for this
anomalous state of the money market to
continue, for it is contrary to the tendency
of the value OF money and the rate of in
terest to an equality in the different coun-
tries of Europe.


The panic has reached it's eliminating


point, and the reaction in favor of cheap
money was assured notwithstanding the


great loss of loanable capital from the re-


cent heavy failures. These circumstances
favor an increased consumption of the raw


material. An impulse to trade has been


given on the continent since the cessation
of hostilities. The markets are almost bare
of cotton fabrics, and there was an increased


demand for yarn on the continent. The


cotton trade is, therefore, rapidly recover
ing its former elasticity, and the rate of


consumption will soon reach point almost
beyond example.


It is admitted by the most intelligent OBJ
servers that the key to the future position
of the market is the American crop. With
a moderate crop, prices, in all probability,
will be maintained. With large yield
they will give way under the accumulation
of the stocks of East India descriptions,
which are pressing on the market. It is
this tendency to glut of East India cotton
that has kept the American descriptions
from advancing.


One of the Liverpool circulars, dated
August 3, observes that arrivals of India
cotton for the next three months must be
at the rate of $4,000 bales per week, and
the largest possible demand cannot be ex-
pected to absorb al this. Doubtless the
amount of cotton now afoat from the East
represents the bulk of what we will get
from that quarter for six months to come,
for we know by telegraph that scarcely any
cotton is now shipping for England, nor is
it likely that exports will be resumed freely
for several months still these considera-
tions cannot be expected to weigh much till
later in the year, and only then if the pros
poets of the American crop are poor. It is
evident that we will have an ample supply
of Indian cotton to last until January or
February, and by that period we will be re-
ceiving freely whatever America has to
spare from the next crop. The conclusions
from these views is, that although an easy
money market, a scarcity of cotton fabrics,
and an additional demand for yarn in the
German market, are circumstances highly
favorable, still, until an advanced period of
the session, their influence cannot be felt
from the large quantities of Indian Cotton
pressing on the market.


The important point is the extent of the
growing crop. This is mere guess work
until all danger is past from the usual cas-
ualties that visit tue cotton crop until the
picking season is over. There never was q
period in the history of the cotton trade in
which the estimates were so widely variant,
embracing the extreme of one million to
three millions bales, the lowest being one
million and the highest three millions.-
We are inclined to adopt the medium be-
tween these extreme figures, and estimate
two millions as the crop of 1866J67.


Our summary Of conclusions from the
above data lead to these inferences l.
That the receipts will, in all probability,
reach 1900, COO bales. @ That the large
supplies of East Indie Cotton in England
and on the way will tend to depress the
markets. 3. That the rate of consumption
viii be large III consequence of the pros
poets OF peace and the increasing ease of
the money market, the effect of a progress
i've reduction of the rate OF discount by
the Bank OF England.


The grape growers of New Jersey report
that their crops will be unusually large tais