Year: 1877

The difficulties besetting the Russians IN
their position south Of the Danube are now
due not only to the sturdy opposition OF
the Turks but also to sudden break in
the weather. which cannot fail to inter-
fere very materially with field operations.
Hitherto the weather has been remarkably
favorable for campaigning in Bulgaria, but
now the reverse is the case, and continuous
rains threaten to force the Russian army
into winter quarters and inactivity with its
work undone and the Turks still defiant.
Rains will swell the waters Of the Danube
and thus endanger the military bridges on
which the Russian army depends for reg
ular supplies, and ferries must be estab-
lished in their stead. Rains will convert the
dry and practicable roads into mere broad
tracks of deep mud, through which the COM
missary wagons and artillery cannot be
hauled without enormous trouble and loss
of time. Rains will cause the health Of the
army to suffer, especially during the tram
sition period between the warm, dry weather
and the cold season. Therefore the next six
weeks will prove to be one of the most





effectiveness of the Russian preparations
to meet the difficulties suggested will be
severely tested.


1t is beyond doubt, however, that the
Russians are better prepared than the
Turks for this sudden change of weather.
The latter have really no organized COM
missariat or medical departments, and must,
consequently, suffer all the disadvantages
which such condition of unreadiness i'm
plies. So far as the army of Suleiman
Pacha covering Rasgrad, Shumla and Osman
Bazaar is concerned it has an uninterrupted
line Of supply by railroad from Varna, and
probably q. considerable depot as we'll as
secure winter quarters at Shumla but yet it
has been forced to retire in consequence
OF want of supplies. Osman Pacha's
position ut Plevna will become practically
isolated as soon as his trains meet with any
difficulty in traversing the only line open
to them-namely, that from Sofia to Plevna.
If he finds it just at present hazardous op-
Grafton to get supplies, and that it is neces-
sary to escort the food and ammunition for
his army with large forces, how much greater
will be the difficulty of maintaining himself
at Plevna when the roads become impass-
able? The escorting forces will require
large supply trains, which must be pro-
tected and which will be as hard to move
as those intended for the relief of Plevna.
At present Osman's army is subsisting from
hand to mouth, although we are told that
provisions are plentiful in Plevna. 1t has
no area of country on which to forage,
because the Russians are established on
its front and fanks and their cavalry
make constant raids on the territory beyond
the Vid, leaving little to be picked up in
an already dcsolated region. On the other
hand, the invading army has the Rou-
manian and can have the Servian grana-
ries wherefrom to draw its food supply.
The depots of military stores necessary
for the prosecution of the winter campaign
are already established within its lines, but,
Of course, must be renewed from time to
time. It is probable that the chief difficulty
for the Russians will be to feed their horses,
and we may therefore look for a reduction
of their effective strength in cavalry and



Driven to extremity they can always retire to
secure and well supplied winter quarters,
but movement in retreat by the Turks
would be but the prelude to series of ire
parable disasters under which their defence
would collapse.


mics, that of the Russians must undoubtedly
prove to be by far the best. The hordes of
murderous bashi-bazouks and ziebecks who
now subsist chiefly by plunder will die like
flies during the hard, long winter months,
for they will have nothing to prey upon.
These wanton desolators Of the Bulgarian
plains and valleys have been guilty of q
fatal folly in running the territory on which
their own chances Of living through
tho winter depended. Perhaps they
will desert by thousands, but in doing
so they will weaken Osman Pacha's
army to such an extent as to render it an
easy prey for the Russians. The Turkish
troops drafted from the Valley of the Eu-
pirates and from Egypt cannot stand the
rigor of Bulgarian winter, while the
| Russians will feel at home amid the SHOWS
and icy blasts that will sweep over Bulgaria
Reouf Pacha may winter his army at Shipka,
but the Egyptian contingent under his COM
mand will suffer greatly by exposure. The
approach of winter and it's relation to the
Eastern conflict therefore suggest the gravest
thoughts regarding the fate of the oppos-
ing forces. Napoleon lost q magnificent
army more from the terrible Russian winter
than from Muscovite bullets and Cossack
lances. The Sultan may experience the
same misfortune in the very heart of his
own Empire.


| Rncfng and the Rain.