Year: 1877

that the winter will not interfere with, more
especially il the season advances as gently
in that country as in ours but any attempt
to move fully appointed army across a
great mountain range where in night adj
vance or retreat may be made equally i'm
possible by heavy snow would be piece OF
mad temerity. No one can say that such an
advance is impossible. There comes
winter now and then when, even in the
Balkans, perhaps, there is good campaign
ing weather throughout the season. There
have been many years when Napoleon
could have marched from Moscow as
easily certainly as he did TO Marengo,
but we know what happened because des-
tiny did not give him on the occasion OF
might favor Russian march to Adrianople;
but all chances are against the possibility OF
it's success, even if the snow now falling
shall prove no great impediment, and we
do not believe an impatient spirit can
tempt their military administration to for
felt any part of the advantage the Russians
have gained by a measure that might lose
them an army. Marches to Orchanie, per-
haps to Sofia, may be made by light col
umns and operations may be continued on
the Danube. Other movements the winter
will prevent 1t must be the same in Ar
menia, though we have not yet received any
reports of weather bad enough to stop the
conquerors. They are cutting the commu-
nications between Erzeroum and Trebizond
and propose the capture of the old Arme-
nian town. They will probably take it very
soon and then stand still 'till the snow
melts"


At the end of the operations Of the year it
must be recognized that the Russians are
overwhelmingly victorious at every point;
that their enemies capacity to face them in
battle is exhausted. In wars between civil
lized nations success SO absolute as that
which results from the destruction Of the
armies Of Moukhtar Pacha on one theatre
and Osman Pacha on another would in
evitably be followed by peace made on the
terms dictated by the conqueror. But this
result does not follow in the present case,
mainly because the methods OF reasoning
esteemed in civilized capitals are not
adopted in Constantinople. Fanatical
frenzy and barbarian pride cannot conceive
that there are worse things than humili-
ating peace Intelligent governments con-
denim the people to suffer the horrors of war
assent to the devastation of whole districts of
country and the ruin Of cities, and contem-
plate these results calmly as the price to be
paid for the realization of some national pur-
pose; but when the realization OF fthat purpose
is once clearly seen to be unattainable they
do not continue the horrors OF war an hour
out of regard to the impulses of o blind and
wilful passion. Political wisdom in this
respect was peculiarly exemplifed in the
peace that France made with Germany in
1871. But up to the present time barbarous
which the Moslem must ultimately bend
He has been favored in this indulgence Of
his pride at the expense Of his people by
the immunity Of his capital. Commonly
the conqueror who has annihilated the force
between him and his enemies capital is able
to force peace at the lannon's mouth. But the
accident of Osman Pacha's first fortunate
defence of PIevna-for it was simply IN nc
cident-caused the main fury of the war to
gather about that little Bulgarian town
and the decisive battle to bo fought
there rather than in Roumelia, ut some
point from which q march on Constantine
pie would have been only military prom
enade. That was an accident of mingled
good and i'll for the Ottoman. Osman was
at the precise point where his resistance
was most effective while he held out; but
he was also at the point where his case
was most hopeless when he came to desire
assistance from without But he fell only
when the snow was due, and sacrificed forty
thousand troops to give to the Sultans
capital immunity through the winter and
the chances there might be in such immu-
nifty.


What are those chances2 There seems to
be no Ottoman force left anywhere that is
worthy the name of an army. No confidence
is felt in Erzeroum or in Constantinople in
the power Of the force with Moukhtar Pacha
to face the Russians; and apparently that
army-badly used in some severe battles
with certain'of its divisions actually dis
persed, and with what is lett demoralized
by eight months severe service with as
founding variations of fortune, is of exceed
ingly little value now. In Europe there is
still in Bulgaria the army Of Suleiman Pacha,
and perhaps between Sofia and Adrianople
the army from the command Of which Me-
hemet Ali was lately removed This is all
there is for the defence of Constantine
pie; and it is not perceptible how the
Turkish government can effectively in
crease this force by the time when
the Russians will be able to continue their
advance. There are nations with vitality
enough to rise again from such depths as
the Ottomans are now plunged in, bat that
sort OF vitality is not possessed where the
people arc bred in fatalism. The two in