Year: 1879

a question: mat Ueep.y CoRcerRsthe SouH
= The following remarks relative to tn


value of cotton in the prosperous times, OF


which the worlds trade is again entering


are Contributed by well.known merchan
and authority on cotton, and We submi


them to our readers for what theyArSy y yortl
without accepting them asswhoify express
ing our own views. They ra;se, a highl,
important question, audsany of our reader.
who may desire to elucidste it may consid
er our space at their disposal


What is cotton werthfp prosperous times!
The fact that the worlds ual production
of cotton has each year fallen below the
consumption FOR five years makes the above
question unusually interesting if not per.
picking to all who arc interested in the trade
] The production. of nearly all other. arti-
EeleSAa sxpeeded uSnaap pti0 liia ihcross 4:
ratio each year that the depression lasted.
Now that the depression is past and every
thing is returning to ante. panic values, what
is to be the price of cotton, which is so re-
markable an exception to the laws that seem
to have governed the production and con-
sumption of all other articles In wheat
there is temporary scarcity, owing to bad
harvcsts, but everybody expects to see this
rIShted next season. Not so with cotton
The four last seasons have been more nearly
faultless than any four ever known in sue
cession.


1t is quite certain that the cotton proGuc-
tion of the world can only be brought up to
the steadily increasing consumption by the
stimulus Of a high price. Unlike wheat,
which is grown in all the climates most con-
genial to the most entcrprising and encr-
setlc races of men, cotton is only produced
In the most observation-disclosures. The de-
velopment of cotton culturcis slow. It
never proceeds by "leaps and bounds"
under any stimulus; but still it is not
exempt from the laws of trade and docs
respond to an advance in price by in
creased production.


During the two years preceding the panic
of 1873 the price Of middling cotton in
lhvorpool ranged from about 8 pence to
about l pence, the average price being not
far from 81 pence. There was then fully
a million bales more in the hands Of the
trade throughout Europe and this country
than there was at any time during the past
two years.


At this point most naturally arises the
question, what would have been the price
III 1872 and 1873 if there had been mil.
lion bales less in the world than there was;
or, in other words, if tn, average stocks had
been but little more than half what they
were? 1t may be doubted if any cotton
merchant would reply, less than one shilling
to fifteen pence sterling.


Si".~ .L- poi. ~ 1870 .L-.~ I." UUru
at least three very stroug "bull" spccula-
tions, caused entirely by the fact that tho
worlds consumption was each year eating
into from two to three hundred thousand
bales Of the reserve stocks Ofcoursc these
spcculations were not sustained, because we
had not turned the course; trade was still
on the down grade and no appr, citation in
the price Of anything could be sustained


In the meantime stocks continue to 60
down, getting less every year, SO that, for
two or three seasons it has been very diff
cult, even with depressed trade, to exc out
the old crop until the Few began to arrive.
This year and last it was only accomplished
BY short time, and by the two earliest crops
ever known and probably the earliest that
will be known in our time.


At last, after nearly six years depression.
during which nearly everybody seemed 10
want to sell everything and to buy nothing,
except to supply absolute needs, we arc all
at once in the midst of movement that
looks like resurrection. Industry and
commerce have woke up throughout the
whole world as if from long sleep, and in
the very youth and vigor Of this movement
we are under the necessity of reducing con,
sumption to bring it within the compass Of
this years crop. We have no more reserve
stock to draw upon. 1t is best that the
world should understand this at the begin
ming of the season. At this point, another
question calls for an answer: what price
will reduce consumption within the limit
required? The most sagacious may well
confess his inability to answer it. Under
ordinary circumstances, many might venture
an answer satisfactory 1T least to themselves
The consumers of am traders in cotton
goods have been buying from hand to mouth
for years, and they began this season in a
state Of hunger rarely if ever known before.
Ono penny or two pence advance was sutfi.
cicnt during the depression, but it may well
be doubted If two pence at present would
have any Influence at all on consumption.
1t is the object Of these suggestions ID raise
the question for discussion rather than to
answer it. On the answer will depend
the answer to the other question at the
head of these rcmarks.-E. j. ID. IN ". y
! Com. Bulletin.


ANOTHER VIEW OF THE SAME SUBJECT.


New YORK, October 2l
To The Editor Of tie CommCrcioi Bulletin:
While recognizing tn, ability Of your cor,