Year: 1859

The Position Prospects OF Cotton.


The history Of the cotton trade during the first half
of the present year. may be briefly described strug
gle for ascendancy between the two rival elements Of
supply and demand in which the forces evenly
balanced as almost to neutralize each other.


The American crop, which now promises to range be-
tween 3 700 900 and 3800000 bales has exceeded by
nearly half million OF bales the early estimates OF the
season and Judging from previous pecedcns, it might
have been expected that enormous addition to the
expected supply would have brought about complete
collapse in the market But SO remarkable has been
the buOvancV OF trade all the world that it is
obvious that if peace had been preserved this immense
supply would have proved hardly adequate to provide
for the consumption and keep moderate reserves OF stock
at the close of the season.


In fact every increase in the estimates OF supply
more than connterbaanced by the increasing magnitude
of the consumption and there be little doubt now
that if tranquility had regned the continent, the
scale of prices for the remainder of the year would have
been very materially higher than the present currency
and much uneasiness would have prevailed in Manches
ter regarding the prospects of future supply.


But when the conflict between supply and demand
seemed about declare in favor of the latter the out
break of war on the Continent brought powerful ally
to the aid of the former The equilibrium seemed again
in danger Of being 0st for at one time the feeling Of
distrust strong that panic was about setting
in and many expected that the market would not touch


firm ground till six pence per pound reached for
middliDg.


fresh display of strength in Manchester checked,
however the downward tendency, and the market has
again taken up firm position at substantially the old
basis of price, I'd per pound for mddng, which for the
last twevemonth has formed to speak, its centre of
gravity The equipose has thus again been restored,
and the wonderful elasticity of trade has served to
erbaance not only crop, but also the de-
rangement caused by continental war


For these considerations it must be obvious that the
question of price has not been determined this year by
any exact formula of supply and demand. In both
these elements there has been very wide deviation from
the views that once commonly entertained /; and
the occurrence of a European has still further dis
turbed the groundwork of early calculatons,yet the
original basis of price has not materially altered and
though the premises have all proved wrong, the concu
sons to which they naturally pointed have not been Sc
riously falsied.


In view of this fact we will not attempt to examine
with scrupuous nicy every ohoot from the wide ques
ton of supply and demand but shall content Ourselves
with taking broader and general survey than we
have thought needful to do former occasions. We
propose therefore, to conne our remarks almost excu
svey to the Liverpool market, ard only deal with the
consumption as supplied from this port We take as
our basis the General Brokers Circular OF the 24th
June, 1859.


The first point to be determined is the probable sup
DIV of American cotton to the end of the year. BY the
last accounts from the States14th June-the stock IN
the ports amounted, according to Wright to 1000
bales We are inclined to think that this will be all