Year: 1865

come sometime ID CeiIa 'A"'


come soon appears now highly probable,
and the effect which such an event will
have upon the business Of the country
cannot but be matter OF deep interest
to all. ,,.


Tn the examination of the subject we
must take certain things as granted, for
in no other way can We make any caicu-
latiops whatever. We will first assume
that the terms of peace include the per
feet restoration of the nationality, and
secondly, that the great discordant eye
ment has been removed, 80 that there s
noantaponism between different sections
of the country growing out OF antago
nistic institutiens-thatt therels, IN tacl'
that harmony of ideas aud interest
which alone can give confidence ana IN
snre tranquility. ,I!b) ~,


These two conditions being establish
ed, the country will have peace, nation,
al credit, and universal confidence will
be restored As soon as this state OF
things has arrived, as soon even as 1t Is
certain that the conflict has ended, the
whole industry of the nation will expe-
rience a severe shock That is inevita-
BILE. The war paralyzsd industry, and
for while all was stagnatlon. feace
will produce similar effect, because the
industry of the country must be changed
from a state of war to a state OF peace.
Those who have been engaged IN manu-
featuring the appliances OF war ana tne
instruments of human destruction, must
change their occupation. Thousands and
hundreds of thousands must be trans
ferred from one branch of industry to
another. Half a million of men now i'll
arms must return to their homes and ma
employment in peaceful pursuits. All
this cannot take place without tempo
rary arrangement and consequent pa
ralysis I4


But the greatest shock will be felt up
on prices, Everybody knows that these
are at least double their usual average
and must, to a certainty, come down TO
the natural standard, that the currency
sooner or later will be restored to a specie
basis. A great panic of course will take
place on the announcement of peace.
Every man having property OF any kind
which he desires to sell, will wish TO be
rid of it as soon as possible. And what
is worse, everybody will beafraid to pur-
chase, because they are sure prices must
90 down and down until they reach the.
lowest possible point. But the general
consumption of the country must go
on. Why should it not2 Men and Wo-
men will continue to eat, drink, ana
wear; and, what must be borne in mind,
they have plenty of money, OF rather OF
currency to buy with. What use can
they make of greenbacks and National
and State Bank notes, of which we have
so many hundred millions, but for pur-
chases! Then why should not the peo-
ple purchase freelyl They will do so,
and of course trade must and Will 60
on


The first news OF peace will doubtless
cause a great decline of prices, most per
sons will be ready to sell on almost any
terms and at any sacrifices those who
have the courage To make purchases IN
der such circumstances will do sotogreat
advantage, because prices cannot al once
permanently decline. After the nrst
shock there will be reaction, and prices
will advance again.


Three causes have c0-operated III rais7
ing prices; the increasing volume OF cur
rency, the depreciation of the national
credit, and the movements of speculators.
All these causes may cease with there
turn of peace -four finances are managed
on sound principles; the currency will be
reduced, the national credit will be re-
stored, aud the spectators occupation
will be gone. But since this change can
not be instantaneous. 80 far as redun-
dant currency is concerned the reaction
we have spoken of will take place.


Prices are governed by the existing
quantity of currency and, as that cannot
be ut once greatly contracted, prices can,
not immediately return to their natural
point To most persons prices seem to
be merely accidental. That they are
actually governed by laws as determ'-
nate as those of gravitation few under
stand. Hence there will be great pan
ic. and many will sell off their stocks, as
some did under the senseless pane oil
September last, at much less thah they
are worth, aud be quite glad to repnr-
chase at advanced rates.


If it were universally known thai
prices in general can fall ouly as the cur
rency is curtailetl, all would be we'll
Prices would go down gradually as the
currency was called in, until the specie
value was reached, and then trade would
move on in its accustomed channels.
But it will not be so. Changes will be
fitfnl and violent, because so many per
sons will be unreasonably alarmed. 20.


But we have already said that after
this panic there will be reaction. To
what point the returning tide will carry
prices it is of course impossible to say -
Many not without reason, claim that the
effects of the imitation will then be more
decided than ever before. They reach
this conclusion in the following manner.
The amount of currency afoat 10 about
one thousand millions. Much OF this,
saw they, is now necessarily used III the
vast transactions of Government, and
will be so long as its present rate OF eA-
penditure is continued. Peace, however
will work great change; the currency
thus EMPLOYED will be thrown out OF use,
and when its occupation is gone, it will
simply drug the market and force mp the
value of all commodities. This eonciu-
sion is undoubtedly correct unless there
are counteracting circumstances WI
there not be another field for this cur
rency I'm such a contingency Will not
the States now in rebellion absorb as
much as will thus be thrown out OF usei
We do not undertake TO answer these
questions or to decide what will be the
point prices will reach after peace. That
they win fall greatly on the inst an
nouncement, and will again rise to at
-, l.a--a 1rIr1 1Sf'