Year: 1861

the belief that the COnfederates are prepar-
ing for some great effort, and that they have
retired portions of their force from before
Washington, either as a device to blind
their antagonist while making it, or to CO.
operate with the rest of the army by seri
Gus demonstre ton above and below the
city. Ii the COnfederates have moved, they
mean to do some mischief. They Can
scarcely retire and hope to make better
leap by doing so. Inactivity on both sides
coupled with prodigious expenditures, are
the best if not the only chances OF comprO-
mise and peace. Success on either side re-
wives the hopes OF complete ultimate tri-
umph of the one, and stimulates the anio
mostly and the display of the resources Of
the other. There is one thing to be taken
into consideration as an element Of peace.
During winter the armies must go into
quarters. Even so far south as Virginia,
the weather is frequently very severe, snow
lies many feet deep on the ground for weeks
at time. The Potomac is occasionally frozen
over. The roads, always Indifferent, become
rivers OF mud and slush, through which it
would be nearly impossible to move men
or guns and baggage. When the armies
are in winter quarters, will the politicians
work for peace or war? Or will the lead
ers of divisions be permitted to carry on
operations in the ice and snow, remembers
ing the great success of Washington after
the t.ajet, which is so often represented in
bad engravings all over North America ?
1t is obviously the interest of Beauregard
to strike great blow before winter sets 10,
and thus strengthen the base for negotia-
tions; but Gen. Mcclellan, am satisfied,
will not move man if he can help it until


the very end of this month or the begin
ming OF October. About that time there
will be kind enquiries about the second fifty
millions of the loan, and no doubt increas-
ed vigor on the part of those who are OPP
posed to the war. But if Gen. Mcclellan
obtains any very considerable victory, AM
is able at the first stroke. to break
through the shell with which the Confeders
ates have covered their soft parts in the in
terror of the State, some measures short OF
Secession and independence may satisfy
them; and when they are menaced with de-
struction may put up with an offer to live
on fair terms with their cOnquerOrs. 1t is to
be seen whether the latter will then offer
them what they might have easily obtained
at an earlier stage of hostility. was in
Warsaw few days ago, on my way back
from our American Poland, and, if am to
Judge of the state of the South where the
North does its work from the condition of
things in Baltimore and Maryland there is
a most melancholy future before the United
States. Of the ultimate power of the
Northern and Western States to subjugate
the seeded States in the South, if they put
forth all their strength and means by sea
and land, have no doubt whatever. The
South must die of atrophy after time, if
every channel of life is shut to it. BY the
end of this month the United States will
have large feet on the coasts and on the
rivers, and have reason to think that an
expedition will be organized also to attack
}he Texan secessionists from the West, far
as that is away. A naval officer said to
me the other day-it seems as if the mo.
ment an American sees an Englishman be
thinks the latter is going to say something
about cotton-"You need not be afraid of
any want of cotton in England. By Oc.
tober we will have few good ports down
South, and plenty Of cotton tor all the
world" Fernandina may possibly go soon;
there is an eye on Pensacola also, and New
Orleans is by no means safe. The cOndi-
tion to which the blockade has reduced
many classes in the South is bad enough
it will become still worse. Tea, and coffee
are nearly exhausted, or have, as the Ameri.
can phrase has it, "given Odt," because there
is none TO give out at all. Lead, sulphur
and salt are very scarce. Shoes, flannel,
qulnine, beef and butter, cloth, tin and
leather, are in the same category. If the
blockade be enforced, the distress and want
of all things, save natural produce, will be
intense.


And what is the end to be? There is a
notion in some mems minds that there will
be comprOmise-that strong democratic
reaction and great peace party will arise
which will oust the present Administration
and carry some measures on which North
and South will find base to rest PROPOSE
tiOns for mutual agreement. To my linn.
tied vision the idea seems quite illusory,
The South, if not beaten, will be content
with no terms short of independence, +"
or domination" The North is now irrita-
ted; pride and passion are aroused, and the
Peace party is losing, instead of gaining
ground, owing to the action of the Govern.
ment and to the violence ofthe populations
which have resulted in something very like
terrorism. The freedom of the press has
ceased to exist in its full acceptation. 1t is
guaranteed by the Constitution, but that
document which with the empire it created
is not as old as thousands of living men, is
absolute as the constitutions OF Clarendon.
The grand jury of Westchester county have
presented batch of five newspapers as
tending to give aid and comfort to the enc


my. Mobs have, however, anticipated
grand jury presentments. The New York
papers, which are losing circulation anG
money, are delighted at this wholesome
rigor, and" cry havoc, and let slip the dogs
of war" at their unfortunate brethren, at tht
same time doing Fouquier Tinville to per
lection, and pointing out others who ough
to be suppressed in the name of public
safety" Ominous and terrible words!


The splendid sloop of war Pensacola
which hauled off the Navy Yard on Satur.