Year: 1865

The money article in the Chicago Times
of Friday contains some speculations re-
garding the decline of gold, which are
worthy Of remembrance by those who feel
panicky


thousands of business men in this city, and
every hour has witnessed hundreds brought to
the verge of, bankruptcy. The Oldest brokers
cannot remember to have witnessed day
more cherries and gloomy, or when the
minds of business men were depressed by more
anxiety and uncertainty.


It is freely prophesied now that gold will go
down to much lower figure than was dreamed
of before. 1t may 60 to $50, and perhaps
lowes, in the blind terror of the people, but it
will doubtless rally to at least that figure. The
principal causes of the decline has been more
anticipations than realizations, and if gold goes
far below $50 there must be q reaction. A re-
turn 10 specie basis at an early day Is an i'm
possibility, and, it may be added, q calamity
which all would deplore. Deplore because it
would disarrange the commercial, fnan-
rests of the country; because it would
bring ruin upon the capitalist, the arti-
san and the farmer. A return to q specie basis
must be q work gradually and slowly per-
formed, that the interests of the country may
experience no violent injury, and be enabled to
accommodate themselves by degrees to the
new state of affairs. But the question of pro-
priety and policy need not be discussed here,
the question is purely one of possibility. A
prompt return to a specie basis cannot be made
suddenly, because the paper currency of the
country amounts to nearly $500, ,000, 900, while
in times of peace it was less than $150 00O, 900.
This immense volume of currency must be re-
duced TO near the old standard before 1t can be
said that we have returned to q specie basis, or
oroAf f0p ovaAo VnH l<
made in one year, or two years, even If peace
were declared tomorrow and the armies dis
banded. Gold, under the most favorable cir
cumstances, must command considerable pre-
MUM for two or three years hence, and that
premium must bear some kind of relation to
the volume of the currency. If the people are
compelled to use twice as much currency as
they have any necessity for, forcing two
dollars where there Is room for but one, each
dollar will represent but half q dollar in
actual value. And 80 long as the cur
rency retains its present redundancy. so long
will one dollar in gold represent from one to
two dollars in paper; and as the paper Is with
drawn gold will decline in value, or rather
paper money rise in value, for gold. has never
changed-it has simply been the depreciation
of paper money which has made the premium.
There can be no reduction in the volume OF
currency at present warranting a decline OF
gold to less than $50. The true figure upon
which it will settle will doubtless be above
rather than below $50, Notwithstanding the
confident predictions of certain parties and
journals that it will go far below. 1t may 20
back to the vicinity Of 200, but that is scarcely
probable, since the policy of the new Secretary
of the Treasury seems to be to keep the money
market stringent by constantly negotiating
loans. thus depressing the spirit Of speculation
which is just now 90 strong and vigorous every
swhere. This policy, if carried out, together
with the policy of no further expansion Of cur


rency, which will give capitalists more Ger
tainty with regard to the future, should serve
to keep gold somewhere below the former
range and it is not improbable that $50 viii


be the centre of its oscillations, Though 1t may
settle down upon figure somewhat higher.
Persons holding property should not conssn