skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
If you want a real world example of this.

There is a phenomenon in finance called Post Earnings Announcement Drift (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-earnings-announcement_drif...), meaning there is a tendency for companies to move too much or too little after announcing their earnings and their price eventually snaps back to a more suitable price.

I spent the better part of 3 months trying all sorts of models to figure out how to trade this.

The most profitable model I could come up with....

Take each analysts who follows the company, rank them by their previous historical success at predicting earnings and then weight each analysts' estimate by the analysts rank.

This grade 8 level math beat out my "fancy" regression models.

I was pretty humbled by that discovery:)

Hopefully my blunder can save someone else here 3 months of their life:)

The only caveat to this is, beware of crowds when guessing costs nothing. When you get free guesses then the results can become useless very quickly.

The analysts rankings work as a financial analyst has exactly one currency, their reputation for predicting earnings. When this goes, so does their job:)
Hehe, that really is a temptation. I wish there was one all-purpose device (maybe modular, like the earlier Modu phone [1] and now Google's Project Ara (still to come).

[1] Read about Modu in TechCrunch some years ago. An Israeli startup backed by Yossi Vardi, IIRC. Not sure what happened to it. But the idea seemed promising.
Waiting for some Lawyer to explain why they think this is or isn't great. But mostly out of interest. The old patent grant never prevented me from using their projects.
Hmm.. can one create a custom layout for SwiftKey, then?
By 'this' do you mean why didn't Android completely beat iPhone? Similar reason to why the Mac is making a comeback. The hardware market has changed.

In the 80s / 90s, computers were very expensive and it was common to only buy exactly what you needed. PCs excelled at this. Everything was an option: Video card (MDA, CGA, EGA, VGA), ram, hard drive, hard drive controller, serial port controller, sound card. If you later needed more capabilities you upgraded whatever was necessary.

As computers became cheaper, upgrading began to make less financial sense. Upgrading a component and paying for it to be installed became almost equal to the cost of a new computer. There also became less to upgrade, onboard sound, network, etc was good enough. The only thing left to upgrade was CPU (but usually required a new motherboard) and video card. Upgradability which was originally a huge selling point became a niche feature.

As integration continued, size, weight, power consumption all became more important than upgradability / customization. Hardware wise, all Android phones and the iPhone are pretty much the same.
Cool, thanks for the details!
It's much simpler than that. Their marketing team gets their material from the R&D team, and neither group knows about the NSLs, because why would they? Only compliance and a few people on legal know, and everyone hates them already anyway.
No, it recognizes that people aren't equal.

1. Some are taller
2. Some are journalists
3. Some have lots of free time
4. Some are famous
5. Some own printing presses
6. Some are politicians
7. Some are beautiful
8. Some are rich
9. Some are retired
...

Pretending that everyones voice is the same by removing money is wrong. It just increases the power of people with other advantages. Campaign finance laws are crazy.
Sometimes you can generate the random numbers in batches to get better efficiency.

For your example, you can combine 3 random 8-bit values into a 24 bit value. You still only get 3 outputs, but you can use all the random values up to 7 * (129^3) - you only need regenerate random numbers 10% of the time, rather than 49%. 60 bits does even better, giving you 8 outputs and requiring regeneration only 0.2% of the time.
The recent reviews at the Netflix link are priceless :)
The flip side of that for me, as a long-term (25+ yr) insomniac, is exercise is the only thing that has ever gotten my sleep issues under control.

So, yeah, I think it's not smart to deprive yourself of sleep and still exercise. But if you're cursed with sleep issues, consider getting started on an exercise routine even with little sleep.

You may find out in a few weeks time that the sleep issues go away.
The Apple Watch's cure for notification overload? More notifications
To maxerickson:

I know what you mean, but I still think you have to look at the numbers. It seems plausible to me that the black hole might be so small that it would take literally millions of years or more to consume enough mass to become a threat. And that might even depend a lot on chance since most particles would just drift by it without passing inside of its event horizon since the force of gravity has very little effect at those scales.
I think the answer is: "It depends.". From some searching, it looks like cmake has better cross-platform support, and is (unsurprisingly) more powerful when you need to do something a little gnarly. That said, it appears (never had need to test) that qmake works fine with pkg-config:

http://doc.qt.io/qt-5/qmake-project-files.html

In my experience (mostly from compiling from upstream source, when something isn't available in Debian and/or backporting for personal use) there are different kind of libraries, some behave better than others (eg: easy to install under $HOME/opt with xstow -- as I prefer to /usr/local, as the latter needs root and/or rw-privileges on /usr/local). I've yet to find any pattern for when things just work, and when things don't (the real reason typically being some hard-coded paths or other nastiness -- I just mean some obscure projects work fine, some big ones fail miserably). So I guess YMMV -- but for now, qmake is the tool for building simple c++ I've found that is simple, for simple projects. I also use CMake (preferably with ninja) -- but I don't really like the CMake "language". Maybe what we need is a CMake-generator? Then we can generate CMake-files that generate ninja files that build our code! ;-)
Perl probably counts.

For newer developers, I feel like even the linenoise/write once jokes are pretty much unknown. For an older set you still see one-liners and text heavy scripts, but no large players are really doing greenfield development in perl anymore.

Which is a bit of a shame, because perl 5.20 is a pretty far cry from the 5.8 I was using those 10 years ago...
PingMe - Social discovery that helps you meet the friends you didn't know you had. Available for iOS currently here: https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/pingme/id935283991?mt=8

Learn more here: www.getpinged.net
"Who knows maybe one day my phone will load content so fast that I believe ATT really does have 4g in my area"

Heh... let's start with acknowledging a pretty good burn right there.

And thanks for the vote of confidence. Much appreciated.

As for price, we're working with a whole bunch of customers right now who've been using various solutions for serving content from the cloud (aws, cloudfront, CDN's... what have you) and they find the price to be comparable to what they're already paying. In addition, they find as users find the app experience more pleasant, the engagement goes up.

Note that as an app starts using our system to do content delivery, our caching proxy means that your other backend bandwidth bills drop off. So overall, most customers find us very affordable for the value they get.
WhatsApp actively stops people from making apps for new platforms, so keep on waiting for that FFOS version
GopherCon 2015 – First speakers announced
This. It was my YC application that helped my wife be comfortable with me pushing forward on my startup even if we never make YC.
Nah. Methane Hydrate. Thorium. Not too hard to use; centuries of energy.

Oil is just the VHS of energy - it came first and got market acceptance, but its not the best or even the only easily capitalized energy source.
Smartwatches targeted at fixing people's compulsive reactions to smartphone notifications only make the problem worse.

After the user has been buzzed and buzzed by the Apple Watch, alerting of yet one more notification, the only choice is to turn off all notifications except those from which the user is willing to accept constant interruptions.
"they were correct across the board"

That's impossible. The "Anti-Federalists" were a diverse set of groups with no unifying themes other than opposition to the newly proposed Constitution. Southern racists and Northern working class movements made anti-federalist arguments for wildly different reasons. It's impossible for anti-federalists to be "correct across the board" because some of the arguments they made were contradictory.

More so, it is trivially easy to find anti-federaist arguments that turned out to be wrong. Several people who identified as anti-federalist predicted that the new constitution would lead to tyranny, and yet, 227 years later, the government retains most of the nominal forms of a liberal polity: a mostly independent judiciary, freedom of media, public criticism, habeus corpus in all but the most extreme cases, etc.
Elixir, it combines Ruby-like syntactic sugar with Erlangs powerful OTP libraries and distributed systems mojo!
Here's a random question for the Indians on HN:

> Andrews Isaac Padavettiyil

Most Indian names I see tend not to mix in bits and pieces that look western. Is something like this just random chance, or are there some groups or cultures where this is a done thing?
Qalb (programming language)
This is amazingly elegant. I remember showing off the fact that my laptop had a sound card because I made a parallel port DAC for it.
With TLS, it's not safe not to! Let me explain:

Diffie-Hellman requires the group order to have at least one large prime factor: if it has only small prime factors, Silver–Pohlig–Hellman could recover keys, and that'll make you a sad panda. The easiest way to ensure this is to select a Sophie Germain prime q with 2q+1 also being prime (a "safe prime"), of about the right size. Any base g can then be used - almost always 2 - which then generates a subgroup of large prime order q, problem solved.

The problem is that testing for safe primality is way too slow (as you may have noticed while running openssl dhparam!) for TLS clients to test DHE parameters presented to them. So… they don't. The risk is (I'm not totally clear if the Finished master-secret might prevent this, but there certainly isn't as much transcript hashing as I'd like!) an attacker could perhaps trick TLS parties into accepting bad parameters: too small; small factors; hell, maybe even composite.

The solution is currently in draft, and is to have carefully-selected, standard Diffie-Hellman parameters that are known safe primes, starting from 2048-bit and going up (don't use <2048-bit, just… don't - please don't use 1024-bit!), using essentially the same negotiation as that used with the supported-curves extension. https://datatracker.ietf.org/doc/draft-ietf-tls-negotiated-f... It's the same approach used by many other protocols, including SSH and IKE.

I gather TLS 1.3 will remove the ability for server-defined Diffie-Hellman parameters completely for this reason.

However, ECDHE is strongly technically superior to DHE: ECDHE using secp256r1 is at around ≈128-bit workfactor, equivalent to broadly ≈3072-bit DHE, but is much faster and smaller and doesn't have these problems (it can have different problems, but not these problems!).

And coming up soon (via the CFRG sausage-machine) hopefully TLS will soon have djb's Curve25519 (the curve, and the key agreement function now known as X25519), which is roughly the same ≈128-bit strength but really fast - and much simpler to safely implement, even in constant-time. You probably want to use that or ECDHE, not DHE, which is a little hairier than it sounds. Indeed, quite a few people are using it already (notably OpenSSH).
I wonder what will be the next scapegoat non-technical reason not to use it :)
"An SEP is something we can't see, or don't see, or our brain doesn't let us see, because we think that it's somebody else's problem.... The brain just edits it out, it's like a blind spot. If you look at it directly you won't see it unless you know precisely what it is. Your only hope is to catch it by surprise out of the corner of your eye." [0]

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somebody_Else%27s_Problem
What "wysiwyg-like" features do Twitter and Facebook have? I'm not aware of any.
I thought Cyclone only used regions, but I haven't read the paper in a while. (and dates from 2002 IIRC)

It certainly had a big influence on Rust, we're fans of the work.
Stanford’s Tuition Giveaway Is Not Good News
I think that link is for the bleeding edge dev version. It says 25.1 rather than 24.5. Looks like its going to be a good release tho. :)
>Russia is no challenge to NATO, they're weaker than they've been in terms of being a real threat since maybe before WW2; in terms of scale and capabilities, they're being left behind.

I really don't think this is correct. Russia has fielded technologies recently that represent a serious threat to NATO, and they appear to be getting more and more aggressive as a result of the confidence gained from these technological programs. Russia has real experience with War in Europe - something that NATO can only simulate at this point - and it has proven its ability to dominate in the battlefield on the ground in countless events recently.

Whereas NATO is continually attempting to encroach on territories previously dominated by Russian military power, it is still not quite in complete control over the Eastern-Europe regions which represent the future stage for conflict between the two entities.

I'd really like to understand your argument better - can you explain how you think that NATO has the upper hand over Russia at the moment? Because I don't feel that is the case at all - to me, living in middle-Europe, it seems like NATO is playing a cats game with the tiger.
>
At the language level, Rust is substantially more similar to C++ than it is to Go. C++ and Rust both have many properties (lack of GC, pervasive stack allocation [even for closures], move semantics, overhead-free C FFI compatibility) that many other languages lack, and the Rust developers actively work to match C++ on features.

I think this is absolutely true, for what it's worth.
Great to know! My bitten nails say "thank you".
They did this because they have nothing to lose and can show off their technical prowess.

What exactly is the world going to do - sanction them and stop buying nearly everything from their factories?

I fear the US is going to seriously regret building up China with all our economic business instead of building up all of Central and South America.
Munk Debates 7:00pm EDT – The West vs. Russia
Actually, atomics and locks (which are fully supported) are what avoid that issue in Rust. You can't borrow across multiple threads.
Indeed, when I clicked on the link I irrationally expected some kind of comparison between Nim positions and Go endgames. Color me disappointed.
No, I mean software development efforts which clearly disrupt the target industries of interest. It seems to me that programming is precisely the effort of executing authority over a subject using technology.
The constitution has stood for over 200 years and even when a sort of anti-federalist civil war occurred, the anti-federalist side adopted it nearly word or word.

The failure of the EU proves the anti-federalists wrong. A weak centralized government isn't stable.

A US under the articles of confederation wouldn't be recognizable. We would have been picked apart by the British and French.
this is a menace that needs to go!
Amazon Machine Learning Using Amazon Redshift as a Data Source
Apparently they invite about 10% of the applicants for the interviews (I've read somewhere last year they had 5k applications and 400 interviews). This obviously must depend on the number of applications.
Haha, I scanned all the comments to see if someone said prolog just to figure out that the OP did :D

It's prolog for me too. Or I guess logic programming in general, but prolog is the main standalone one. I really hope clojure's core.logic takes off.
What does this whole patent thing mean? I'm not well-versed at all about licenses and patents and the technical jargon of the file is mostly non-sense to me. Would someone care to simply explain what this implies?
No need to apologize! I haven't heard of the Havel-Hakimi Algorithm before, and I don't have the time to actually try and solve your puzzle right now, but I appreciate the link and will check it out later.

Although just reading the description, I do have one question: What is a "degree sequence"? I going to go ahead and assume that it's https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Degree_(graph_theory)#Degree_s.... If that's correct, I'd encourage you to add a hyperlink to the term "degree sequence" with that URL, for people like me with zero background in graph theory.
Blog post about the change here:
https://code.facebook.com/posts/1639473982937255/updating-ou...

Relevant snippet:

Any inadvertent doubts [the previous Facebook-specific grant to the BSD license] introduces detract from what we want our program to be about: world-class communities and world-class software.

So today we're pushing a new version of the grant. Its main significant improvement is that it is clearer with regard to what we mean by 'affiliates' and 'assertions' and the circumstances under which the grant terminates, all of which had caused confusion.
You can also set up an SMS gateway to automatically text you when the email arrives. You just need to make sure to set your filter correctly, or else you're going to get an enormous bill.
I think it's a bit more complicated than just rearranging the layout since the autocorrect and the swipe interpretation algorithm are likely to depend on the specific layout. This way you could optimize the calculations to speed it up.
I'm forgiving of anyone who eats human flesh out of necessity, regardless of the circumstances that got them there.

Donner party included.
Apple watch sells out in 6 hours
List of 310 software licenses in JSON format
Have you used Intellij? It's quite possibly the best software development tool ever made. Sometimes I just gawk at how polished it is. Intellij IDEA is simply amazing.
A partner at YC just said on another HN thread that invites will be sent at midnight PT.
reply
Paper and pencil should be enough. The syntactic analyzer is nice to have but Lamport really pushes the value of writing down your thoughts in formal logic, as an act. Model checking isn't something you do iteratively - by the time you have a spec amenable to model checking, you'll pretty convinced it's correct. Mostly, model checking will catch errors where you didn't accurately translate your thoughts to TLA+.
basically that even if you sue facebook, the license stands (unlike v1 of the license).
Andrews is from Kerala. Kerala has large number of Christians. Hence some Biblical names, which you might find in some Western cultures also.
"Process automation" is much more coercive automation. Here's the webform, and it's the webform's way or the highway.

Maybe even up to this point : http://marshallbrain.com/manna1.htm
Rust and Java? Not the usefulness you're looking for, but this tool popped up on HN today:
http://rosetta.alhur.es/compare/Rust/Java/#
pre-debate interviews link: http://munkdebates.com/live
I've been considering abandoning AutoFixture for FsCheck.

Partially because that's what AutoFixture's maintainer seems to have done recently. Mostly because FsCheck adds a number of additional features such as automatically reducing failing test cases down to the the simplest failing example it can find that make it very powerful for more complex cases.

One downside, though, is that the C# interfaces are somewhat neglected. It's really a lot nicer to use from F#.

https://fsharp.github.io/FsCheck/
That said, the ergonomics of the mutex design and the ownership system would probably eliminate most of the race conditions I've seen. Lock ordering can be effectively established by nesting mutexes: e.g. `Mutex<(X, Mutex<Y>)>` allows you to establish that any locking of Y has already locked X.
Crazy my friend Bill worked on this, he's the one pictured in the article
Mozart/Oz. Such a beautiful language and system; except the syntax, dynamic typing & sophomoric runtime ;-)

There is nothing like Oz. I spent 2 of my best years just studying its research papers.
Sight Unseen: the hows and whys of invisibility
I'm glad that facebook fixed this solely for the fact that facebook open source software discussions will not be dominated by the contents of the PATENTS file.
Energy costs in the US are differently distributed, more into the future perhaps, more incidentally on the community perhaps, but the market means that the costs are the same (give or take 10% for transport)
Reminds me of this demo that uses a single microcontroller to generate a PAL composite signal, with a few tricks to increase the colours available:

http://www.linusakesson.net/scene/phasor/
>kids toys all over the lawn

Good grief, what a dystopian nightmare you endured living with those savages! Sounds like something straight out of Mad Max!
Programming Languages through the Years
thanks! didn't see that thread.
Something that seems to have been overlooked in the article is that in response to ubiquitous piracy and scanlations, Inuysha was released almost simultaneously in English and Japanese. The scanlators decided, the translation wasn't good enough so they released their own anyway. I get it, but the moral argument changed from "I can't buy this in English if I wanted to" to "your product was inferior" which in my opinion is far less defensible.

It also doesn't mention the translations that are done completely crowdsourced on 4chan (usually of pornography.) Someone in Japan will post raw scans of comics they got at Comiket; another anonymous person will offer translations in-thread; another anonymous person will clean up the scans and do the lettering with the new translation and post the updated pages. These translations will often go through multiple iterations of people with varying levels of proficiency in Japanese discussing and correcting the translations, and then finally the finished translated and cleaned up pages will be uploaded to a site somewhere ready for consumption. This is often done completely with no one knowing the identity of anyone else in-thread.

It is an amazing example of the potential of ubiquitous Internet and low-barrier web technology facilitating sharing culture resulting in a final product that would be superior to any commercial offering, if such a product was even offered for sale which it often is not. Even if from a legal (and arguably moral) standpoint it's pretty indefensible it is an amazing thing to watch.
Crazy my friend Bill worked on this he's the one mention in the article
Whoops, you're right (for the stuff I posted under the paste)! Fixed.
What objective criteria are you using by which Rust is much closer to Go? Go being garbage collected and Rust/C++ not being seems like a much larger gap than anything between Rust and C++.
There is certainly a correlation about caring about the idea and success . But ideally you should be focused on building your product, which is more important than any investor.

Easier said than done, specially today (I firmly believe in that, and am here after all).
This article fell a bit short of an explanation, as I still don't know how 2-Nonenal got there on the first place..
But the server isn't free software, so it's untrustable, even if the protocol didn't have known design issues.
Ethereum is not shooting for the moon, they are shooting for alpha centauri. I hope they succeed, but I'm skeptical whether the world is ready.