Communism set China back so much. The Cultural Revolution and one-child policy especially. This is a country with a tradition of great scientists, statesmen, inventors, engineers, traders, and so on - and they suppressed it all for... what exactly? Forced labor camps so that everyone is equal, except for the Party leaders who are more equal? If China had even a semblance of classical liberalism, human rights, and free trade, they'd probably be the strongest nation in the world. Lots of natural resources, a large population, strong family ties and loyalty, and an unreal work ethic.

That said, the one child policy hurt the country a lot. Countries where the old outnumber the young vastly tend to go in heavy decline, and that's going to bite China pretty hard in the coming years. Also, the male:female ratio is getting to a crazy point. Historically, wars break out when the men outnumber the women so much. I could see China fighting a pretty brutal war in Asia at some point in the next 30 years.

That's if there isn't a civil war first. They're built as a highly centralized empire where the Han Chinese have basically all the power, and the other groups - Xianjianese, Chen Chinese, Hong Kongese, Taiwanese, Macanese, and Tibetans all have no power and basically don't want to be part of China. Historically that produces civil wars. I think as soon as one of the areas pushes hard for independence, others will follow. It happened to the English, Spanish, French, and Dutch at various periods, happened to the Greeks and Romans, happened basically everywhere. The only way an empire holds itself together with diverse groups is through decentralization of power, and representation of all groups in the central government. To truly bond a nation, you need to mix blood and local groups so it's diverse. That means encouraging movement and mixing of people, but the Chinese are pretty outwardly racist (and it's not really seen as a bad thing there - there's not the same moral judgment about it was have in the West). Talking down and making racist jokes about people from lesser provinces or areas of China, and especially China's neighbors is par for the course. People do it at formal dinners and nobody really bats an eye unless the person goes too far with it.

I see China being a world power over the next 50-100 years, but they do have some bad things coming up on them: The male:female ratio imbalance, the old/young ratio, and the lack of representation under a powerful central government and oppression/conquest of minority groups and parts of the nation are going to be a problem. If China can liberalize (in the classical sense, not the modern - basic individual rights) and grant representation and bring the distant parts of their nation willing into the fold, they can probably weather the storm. Or who knows - perhaps the conquer parts of India or Russia, or find a pretense to "stabilize" North Korea after it starts falling apart, or invade Japan if it loses its status as an American protectorate (perhaps because the US goes bankrupt and needs to cut foreign military bases - improbable but possible).

Interesting to look at that part of the world. They have the potential to be the dominant world power and set the pace for the world, but they face a lot of problems. If they sort their house out and move away from Communism and the Party fast enough, the nation could have the influence over the next 50-100 years of the world that America has had over the last 50-100.