- Stock market correction. Maybe a crash if Murphy's Law holds true and there is a sudden major unwind. Will have genuinely new characteristics. For example, you might see a selloff in "safe" dividend paying stocks and not tech, due to rotation of retirement funds out of stocks into fixed income. Another theory is you might see a panic out of financial stocks again once we see two quarters of downtrending inflation.

- Bitcoin will hit $5k at some point. No bitcoin crash in 2014. Dogecoin gives us a glimpse of the long-term role of cryptocurrencies: not really to buy physical goods, but to send micro-payments to people for micro-services from simple tasks to just making you laugh or giving you insight. As mobile devices permeate our lives (see the iBand below) this form of exchange becomes more natural. This dynamic gains more traction as additional means of "tipping" are made on various sites (though this term may not be the way it is presented.) Twitter might lead the way here, building in a feature that allows you to tip any tweet with bitcoins or maybe even dogecoins, as absurd as that sounds now.

- UST 10yr will close about where it is now, ~3%, maybe lower yield if we see deflation/disinflation. Muni bond crisis is overdone and spreads tighten, regained interest in fixed income for the retirement investment crowd as it becomes clear no inflation is imminent drive rates down. Talking heads start to posit that we're seeing rapidly increased productivity in the economy due to technology, and this means deflation and low GDP for a longer time than we ever thought. Unemployment stays high and talk of a living wage gains traction though is a pipe dream in the US. Rotation out of equities here contributes to the market correction. GLD ends the year down another 10-15%.

- Apple introduces iBand, thin glass wristband that serves as a paired device to your iPhone or iPad. It's a beautiful curved display that wraps around your wrist, and calling it a "watch" seems pretty ridiculous since it is essentially a display surface for apps around your wrist, not some boxed-off tiny square screen encased by a frame and held on by a "dumb" leather or plastic band like the pebble or gear. (The analogy here is blackberry is to iphone as pebble/gear is to iband.) No on-board processors, RAM, or storage, iPhone/iPad does the heavy lifting. Use cases include obvious things like mapping, reading messages, fitness, and maybe payments with integrated touchID. Tim Cook demos FaceTime on the wrist on stage and points how just how insane it is that we have a Dick Tracy watch. Nerds write it off because it lacks features the Pebble has, is too expensive, looks stupid, has poor specs, or can't imagine why they would use it when you can't type on it. Will have a novel charging mechanism, design, or technology that makes it natural and easy to charge when not in use. The motivation for iOS7's focus on depth, layering, and typography and classic print design comes into clearer focus on a small screen which the user views at many different angles in quick glances. Might use gyros to enable fine scrolling control or flick gestures with tilt of the wrist. It's a major blowout hit with huge margins for Apple at a relatively low price point (prob $400 max.) Becomes a major cultural status symbol due to customization options (color, finish, maybe even different options catered to men and women) and is immediately the most visible Apple product a person owns. As such is the most fashion-conscious product Apple has ever created. For people who own the iBand, looking back on a time where they had to dig into their pockets to read a text message seems backwards and ridiculous. Samsung apes it, poorly, in Q1 2015 for Galaxy Gear line. AAPL closes 2014 in mid $800's, low $900's, maybe a 10-15% haircut from there if wider market takes a beating.

- By end of 2014 Obamacare will be generally accepted as a Good Thing as people actually start saving money. More people quit their jobs and start companies in 2014 than expected because they no longer fear having to lose employer insurance. Democrats will be a lock for the midterms. Obama gets 2 years left without obstructionism.

- North Korea status quo maintained. Diplomatic progress on Iran as tensions cool. Ceasefire in Syria created, then broken, then created again.

- Google makes an autonomous vehicle surprise announcement of some sort, or announces a consumer robot, or at least a dev kit for robotics that is a leap forward compared to the status quo today. (No, you won't get your self driving car in 2014, but I think you'll be able to spend money on something from Google that has "Google Robotics" on the side.) Basically at the end of 2014 Google acknowledges it is a robotics company. Glass gets rejected by the youth but finds applications in industry, though this is just starting to become clear by the end of 2014. 2014 is year of the smartband, not the year of the smartlens. (That year will come though, and yes, Apple will break the design challenges first again I think.)

- Momentum continues to build around the Oculus and awareness of its wider implications. The horse will still be in the barn in 2014 but it will be making some serious noise.

looking forward to checking back here in 2015 :)