skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Hang on. I hear everyone recommend against stock trading by rolling out "you don't know more than the market".

But the market price reflects an average, an expectation. And in certain conditions, it doesn't require much correct information to tip your expectation favorably.

Imagine a theoretical market for a stock where the company will either succeed and be worth a billion dollars, or fail and be worth nothing. Right now the company is trading at a valuation of $10MM. So the "market" thinks the company has a 1% chance of succeeding, right?

It seems to me that any belief you have which a) has some effect on the success probability of this company and b) differs from the average belief of everyone else can be used to update your probability on the overall success of this stock away from 1%, and cause you to want to buy or short the stock.

For example, let's pretend the company were Tesla. You think Elon Musk is a badass, and you think badass founders have a substantially higher probability of their companies succeeding than the base rate. Further, you also think most people don't take this into account as much as you do. Shouldn't you be able to use this information to raise Tesla's success probability above baseline and therefore cause you to want to buy Tesla?

To view this idea another way, imagine the market as a bimodal distribution of people who think the company will succeed and people who think it will fail. Most people fall into one of these two buckets. The market price is "obviously too low" if you're looking from the success bucket, and "obviously too high" if you're looking from the failure bucket. Now, if you have no information you should probably assign the "prior" which is the probability of success as determined by the market, but any information which updates you away from the prior makes the stock a good buy or good sell, I think.
But they didn't buy the domain until the company was over a year old. And they've had $250 million in financing over the years.
Despite knowing this to be true, I still actively trade the majority of my investments. (My retirement fund is in low-cost index funds.)

Why? Because I like playing the lottery with stocks. On average, I might do slightly worse than the market but I retain the potential for massive, life-changing upside. And that's really all that matters to me.

If I put $100,000 into index funds I might reasonably expect that to be worth $108,000 next year. That would literally not change my lifestyle at all, as it's approximately equivalent to accepting 1 or 2 extra short contracting gigs.

If I put $100,000 into stocks I personally pick, I might unreasonably expect it to be worth $1,000,000 next year. That would definitely change my lifestyle. I can also reasonably expect it to be worth $0, which I'm fine with considering I'm young and gainfully employed.

I just don't see the problem with buying stocks as lottery tickets whose expected value is 1.03% (sub-market) but whose potential value is 1000%.
Awesome. I read that years ago but had forgotten it. Here's a link for those interested: http://www.e-reading.co.uk/chapter.php/149381/8/Sheckley_-_C...

It reminds me of "And Then There Were None": http://www.abelard.org/e-f-russell.php

And "The Midas Plague": http://www.e-reading.co.uk/bookreader.php/1010251/Pohl_-_The...
Windows 8.1 DVD/ISO Ripper
Many people wonder that whether HandBrake can rip DVDs on Windows 8.1, but may find HandBrake not working on Windows 8.1 perfectly, nor Disney and many other encrypted DVDs such as Iron Man 3 and Monsters University can be ripped free by HandBrake on Windows 8.1.
First, as soon as you start using phrases "beating the market" in terms of measuring your performance you get the bozo bit flipped from me. Comparing your performance to the market means nothing since it completely ignores risk. If you take on less risk than an equity fund then you should not automatically be disappointed if this index fund outperforms you. If you are doing no homework, picking stocks by throwing darts at a dartboard, and beat the index fund, then yes, you should be happy.

Second, the question is "what is risk?" Academics will tell you risk is best proxied by volatility (or some measure derived from volatility.) Buffett will tell you this is bs and risk is essentially unmeasurable but can be hedged against by buying assets that seem underpriced through analysis and leaving a margin of safety in the price you buy the asset such that you can reasonably expect to have your principal returned if things go completely wrong. At the end of the day if you know something other people don't know, or can see things that other people can't see, your investments based upon this knowledge or vision can arguably be thought of as less risky as those done by those who don't have this perspective, even if they are the same investment. It's easy to think you are always going to be on the losing side of the trade but I also think that in certain scenarios, individuals can make good investing decisions if they have some specific domain knowledge. At the end of the day, Wall Street analysts are good at understanding and predicting certain characteristics of future cash flows, but are completely blind to things they didn't learn how to model in business school. The individual investor, particularly one who has deep understanding of specific domains, seems to me to have an advantage in certain trades not just because of their knowledge but because of the smaller position sizes they need to take as well.

This blog post presents conventional wisdom about investing that is generally accepted as "the truth" for people who consider themselves reasonably informed and smarter than people who just gamble on stocks. However there are alternative viewpoints on security selection and overall risk management that stand far afield from the "shut up and buy index funds" camp that are not get rich quick schemes and are worth considering. Stock picking or more active investing in general being a fool's errand is far from a open-and-shut case. Buffett has been saying this for decades and basically makes the claim that every year that these "you can't beat the market, the market is efficient" views get perpetuated and magnified is a gift to those who see otherwise. (And his returns speak for themselves.)

http://www.amazon.com/Quantitative-Value-Web-Site-Practition...

http://www.amazon.com/Expected-Returns-Investors-Harvesting-...

http://www.amazon.com/Jackass-Investing-Dont-Profit/dp/09835...
"Hard-to-trace" -- hardly: this is the easiest money to trace in the history of money! (Well, ACH transactions are easier if you are backed by an army.)
Even better -- try to find a low-fee fund that rebalances for you. Ever do the financial model for never rebalancing v annual rebalancing v continuous rebalancing. Continuous rebalancing's returns are very significantly higher. This is basically Wealthfront's entire thesis.
You give HN and its small eco-chamber way too much credit.
I was an early tester for Hunie, and I've designed online communities in the past, including a system like Hunie for a similar audience.

I think there is a need for this kind of community, but I don't know that the people who need it most recognize that need.

Everyone needs professional support and constructive criticism. He's not as good a programmer as he thinks he is. She doesn't handle herself in meetings as well as she could. That whole team doesn't estimate their tasks or manage their time as well as they could. You can't golf and his clothes are unkempt and her commit comments are under-descriptive and their algorithms run in O(n) time instead of O(log n) time. Or whatever.

More generally for developers and designers, junior people should be mentored by senior people, senior people should be mentored by leads and architects, and leads and architects should be mentored by business people and also by junior people who are more likely to be closer to what's new and upcoming.

In fact, in surveys that I've run, more than half of us actively wish we had mentors. We're not, as an industry, getting the validation, training, and oversight we think we need.

The problem is the other almost-half of us also need mentors, and don't realize (or think) they do.

As a platform for enabling review and constructive critique, Hunie does a pretty good job. Damian made some different choices than I might have, but he had reasons for them, and he pays attention to usage and feedback.

The worry I had for my own work, which I project onto Hunie, is that it will only ever be used by the people who already realize they need it. And those people don't have to use it; they're self-aware enough and motivated enough to seek out in-person mentoring and feedback instead. A company large enough to have multiple designers will either (1) not have any sort of review process because those designers don't seek each other out, and therefore will never use Hunie; (2) have an informal in-person review process because those designers are capable of seeking each other out; or (3) have a formal review process tied into all their other review processes, maybe even using the same tools (SmartBear supports images and we used it for design reviews at a place I worked).

Freelancers and one-person shops might be more likely to use it, but also might be more likely to work at a coworking space with other designers precisely to get that sort of regular feedback.

I think the same applies to programmers. Programmers could be getting more code reviewed than they currently do. Is there a need for distributed code reviews? Probably. Do programmers think they actually need code reviews? Often not. See my comments on that here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2352121

In short, I don't know that there's a sustainable market for it, even with the potential for other business models, like placement, or referrals, or job boards. Too many people don't have good professional practices, and the ones that do, don't need it.
They'll probably include a smoke beacon/flare of some type, ostensibly to make crash sites more visible, but probably most utilized as a deterrent to would-be trappers who don't want their house to be filled with obnoxious sensory effects like smoke, odor, or alarm. Not to mention, assuming their navigation systems remain functional, it shouldn't be too hard for the drone's owner to locate and reclaim their property.
It seems like you are equating the author's argument with the efficient market hypothesis. A few others on this thread have made a similar indication. While conclusions of both the OP and the EMH are similar (you will not/cannot beat the market), the underlying arguments are really pretty different.

The OP really doesn't invoke an efficient market at all in his arguments. His argument follows the line of statistical studies (eg http://www.umass.edu/preferen/You%20Must%20Read%20This/Barbe...) of individual investor performance, which conclude fairly uniformly that the average individual investor underperforms the market average, for a variety of emotional, strategic, and competitive (dis)advantage based reasons.

The bottom line of this sort of study/argument is that individual investors tend to act on the belief that they have better information than the market. But, when your opponent is a professional, and you are an amateur, you are going to get beaten more often than not. See evidence in your own comment the belief that you could, in certain situations, understand market behavior just by looking at it: "betting against moves that seem largely caused by "dumb" capital". How could you possibly know that a market move was caused by "dumb" capital? Even if you could, how could you expect to know this better than professionals?

All of this, to be clear, is talking about long term, population-wide averages. Everyone can get lucky once, and some outliers get lucky more than average.
Well, this better only be for the multiple free accounts despite the wording seemingly indicating more. Otherwise AMZ needs to update their ToS to let everyone know they don't support bitcoin mining; which makes no sense because I'd think they'd be okay running rendering processes[1] which would also hold the CPU at 100%.
However, now that I think about it, holding the CPU at 100% is a problem[2] for all cloud providers. Perhaps AMZ is against any CPU intensive work on anything other than dedicated systems.

1. http://download.autodesk.com/global/docs/maya2014/en_us/inde...

2. http://www.clubcloudcomputing.com/2012/06/bad-neighbors-in-t...
A couple of the statements are inaccurate or a bit hyperbolic:

- "In other words, the answer to "do we believe that our stock selection ability is significantly above average?" has to be a resounding, objectively justified "yes." " -- Actually, our "selection ability" doesn't need to be above average, since the average stock picker is not picking index funds. Index funds are used to proxy the average of the product (market), not the professional investor. Since index funds are the theoretical alternative, that's all we'd need to beat.

- It probably doesn't change the overall point about IPOs, but I don't think having or lacking a "desperation" for money changes anything.

What it all really boils down to is this: virtually all the information is already "baked in" to every stock price out there. There's no guaranteed bet, ever. If you aren't living and breathing the markets, it's extremely unlikely you'll be able to account for the market forces in a way that others haven't already.

So really "the rest of us" are just guessing. The only justification for an amateur to play the markets is for fun - like sitting down at a Blackjack table in Vegas.
No one has ever explained the cyclical recessions which we all observe; the efficient markets hypothesis does not directly address it.
The Chromium developers disregard Visual Studio and don't use Makefile but still manage somehow to write an incredibly high-quality code. How come?

I think the answer is because high-quality code doesn't come from Visual Studio and/or makefiles.
Wow, an article on Bitcoin that provides some sensible, down-to-earth arguments. It also mentions the demand from China, which goes a long way towards explaining its price rise this year.
I'm not sure which one is sarcasm anymore.
Unless someone flies in a drone and picks it up.
It's actually very funny:
http://www.willamette.edu/~fruehr/haskell/evolution.html
There are a few traders in history that beat the market in a statistically significant way for basically their entire career. It is a small number <20, but they exist. The issue is that everyone thinks "I can do that". Most people can't.
I just summarized my previous search on the same topic, from multiple resources. Fred Wilson of USV has an article on avc.com on this matter too. I tried to relate the investment into different parts of a startup. Main idea is to start slow, as you are more sure, go on to buy more. So if you don't yet have customers don't invest crazy sums.
This is either fake or TIL Jeff Bezos is bad at grammar but an amazingly detailed CEO.
At least in my apartment, this would almost be easier than a traditional delivery since they can just leave it on the roof. I think a lot of buildings have roof access, which would be a great/secure spot to leave your packages.
Clojure doesn't tend to do frameworks on the scale of Rails; all the components exist, but the price for your application only including the parts you use is that you're more or less expected to write the glue code between them.

Think Sinatra instead of Rails.
Ask HN: Guidelines for building a developer's personal website
Hi guys, I would appreciate if you guys could provide me with some suggestions on building a personal website. I am a ruby developer and following would be the priorities of my website.

For my Web presence.
To engage with fellow ruby developers from all around the world.
Blog about ruby stuffs , tips and tricks.
Summarize my technical skills.
Possibly attract better career choices/Jobs.
Kills a dog!? I don't know what sort of half-ass dogs these people have but I'd be vastly more worried about my dog fucking up one of these drones and being held responsible for replacement costs.
> Rust doesnt really offer GC, the @pointers are more like ARC with cycle detection, and are behind a featre flag now.

@ is being removed, but GC will still be there - implemented properly as a library with language hooks (via traits) to make it nice and safe to work with. You will be able to create your own memory management strategies using those traits.
How much do you actually interact with dropbox's UI? I would think that most of the time you would just be using it through the standard file/directory interaction things (file browsers, shell, etc).
It could also be purely ideological or psychological. It might give her a kick to have that power or she thinks if police suspects someone they are probably already guilty and deserve to be locked away and punished.

It would be an interesting study to see if she had access to pictures, gender, race, income, age of those whose results she forged.
Now, I'm seeing things from the production programming/systems administration side. But my impression was that physics people use large clusters of Linux boxes in college, and thus have practical experience when dealing with that sort of thing in industry. From my perspective, I'd much rather have a physics major who has large-scale systems administration experience and linux experience than a CS major who used java and windows. (But again, I'm not working on "hard CS" - I'm keeping clusters running, with bondo and bailing wire, if need be.)

That, and they tend to be bright sorts who are able to break down problems into something that can be reduced to code. My impression is that the standards as far as intelligence goes are higher in the physics department than in the CS department, but that might just be that where I work, I don't get to see the best output of the CS department.
Completely correct.

When I was a #1-ranked stock analyst, I was good enough to put together a winning portfolio of 5 stocks. 2 went bankrupt, but the other 3 did well enough that the whole portfolio doubled in about 1 1/2 years.

But once I no longer worked full-time on Wall Street, I felt I couldn't beat index funds reliably, except in the most special of cases. (E.g., my 1990s Oracle 10-bagger, based on a close relationship with the company; that trade might not even have been legal had Reg FD already been in place.) You can't beat index funds either.

Yes, I did well in the Computer Reselling News public stock-picking contests years later -- but mainly, I was channeling picks from a hedge-fund manager friend.
For this to be the case, you would have to know more about the impact on 'badass'-ness on stock performance than the rest of the market, or have non-public information on Musk's 'badass' ways; if neither of these are the case, you are just gambling.
I've developed and maintained multiple large systems in a team using various languages. I would much rather maintain a system written in Scala than either Java or various scripting languages we've used and the view is shared by the whole team. It's far less verbose than Java and very maintainable compared to other very large systems written in scripting languages.
Another happy user of Merlin's version of asuswrt here. My RT-AC66U had mysteriously started getting itself into a funk overnight, which Merlin's version cured entirely.

On the negative side, making even trivial firewall changes such as adding or removing port forwarding rules still requires a router reboot. Apple routers do (or did) this too. I'd like to know who decided that this was an acceptable behavior.

I also loaded DD-WRT on the AC66U and it was unable to get the WAN interface moving. And Shibby's TomatoUSB suffered from show-stopping configuration bugs.
This is a really well thought out post and mostly correct. But there is some logic missing here.

1. Risk vs Reward.

2. Someone's motivation to sell isn't necessarily directly tied to a belief that the stock won't go up. It could be a need for liquidity, risk evaluation, etc. Therefore your choice could very well be a smart one. In essence no, "winner" and "loser" scenario as inferred.

3. There are indeed markers that indicate (and only indicate) the likely movement of a stock based on trends. So you can in fact take a somewhat educated guess as to when you are 'Yves or Cecil', as Ed puts it.
there should be super careful weighing with, and without the packaging. i'm too lazy to ask my wife who'd know, but i believe that for tracking purposes they include the paper. for sentencing purposes they sample the paper in a couple of places, work out average concentration, and then math math back from there to whatever number is necessary.

going up in weight (by more than the uncertainty of the scales' measurement) is going to be a hell of a lot more interesting to anybody who actually cares, since that can't happen in the normal course of testing. certainly going down is what implies diversion, but it is also necessary for testing purposes.
Yeah, but then it's linked to my account then, right? I guess I was looking for more of a throw away picture hosting scheme
We already have this in China. The SF Express has been testing these for years. Just last year we got the drop off boxes that amazon has been installing in 7-11s installed into our building. It's used for all package deliveries not just amazon.
Although I appreciate this discussion, both the OP and you are off-topic. This is a library design issue, not a language level issue.

If people like OP are dissing a language because they don't like a particular library's API, they have very strange expectations from the language. And if you are worried about this section of users, then I would say in order to make good use of your time, it is best to ignore them.
Link to the AUP in question: http://aws.amazon.com/aup/

This does not immediately look authentic. Why would a letter like this be "signed" by the CEO instead of a member of Amazon's legal department?
ISON: Comet of the Century
Maybe the author needs Java Interop.
Facebook to make its first India acquisition with app tester Little Eye Labs
> But this advice will be ignored.

Another reason -- banks and other places that offer investment as a choice will heavily influence their client to invest. In anything, as long as it pays the fee. "Check out this new investment research tool, you can sort your stocks by such and such feature now". They don't care. They want you to click the "Trade" because they get paid when you do that.
Oh yes, we are way, way off at this stage. Check this recent benchmark from Phoronix (on Linux, at least, Windows gaming may be a little better in performance...): http://www.phoronix.com/scan.php?page=article&item=linux_uhd...

With a Titan card from nVidia, maxing out at 20 FPS on Unigine, it's pretty depressing. We need to see a 2 to 3x fold performance increase in graphics cards for gaming to be realistic on 4k screens.
Have the GC issues been resolved yet (particularly on 32 bit)?
You can have index funds composed of non-stock assets. Eg Vanguard's Total Bond Market Index Fund https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0084&...
This is perhaps unintentionally describing the entire population. I believe this will be a huge barrier to adoption overall.

Americans, in particular, don't drive cars for transportation. They drive cars because they wish to maintain the idea of having complete control over their lives.
The obvious move here for Amazon is to release "ASIC Altcoin Miner" or A2M (I'm trademarking this BTW): ASIC miners you can spin up instantly without worrying about peripheral infrastructure costs or crooked ASIC vendors delaying shipments.
With DPI scaling set to 2x in Windows 8.1, text editors look no different than on a 1600x900 screen.

I code all day in Sublime on a 2560x1440 13" laptop at 1.5x scaling (Asus UX301LA-DH71T).