skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
I agree with your analysis, but I disagree with your assumptions.

For starters, I don't see any difference between Bob Stoll's publishing his handicapping analyses and Wall Street analysts publishing their analyses. Well, I actually see one difference: Bob Stoll is probably more trustworthy than a Wall Street analyst.

It's tempting to think of investing as tossing coins, i.e., as random experiments. If that were the case, then, yes, after 20 years of consistent results there would still be a small chance that such success were due to luck.

However, investing is not tossing coins. The market changes all the time, so, in fact, one is not playing the same random experiment over and over again. One is playing different random experiments each day, and each day is pretty much unique.

Let us not get carried away by probability and statistics here. Probability is a way of dealing with uncertainty. Lacking information, one assumes a priori that the probability that the coin toss will he heads / tails is 0.5, but that's just a model, it's not the real world.

If you toss the coin using a mechanical device that applies always the same force to the coin, and that is rigidly attached to a table, for instance, then you don't have a random experiment. You have a reproducible experiment. Knowing the force applied to the coin, and the geometry of the problem, you can solve Newton's equations and fluid dynamics equations to predict how the coin will land. There's still uncertainty and error, but I doubt the probabilities will still be 50% heads and 50% tails if you toss the coin always the same way using the mechanical device. Stanford professor Persi Diaconis wrote a beautiful paper on it years ago...

So, if coin tossing in the real world is not even a true random experiment, how can investing be?????

I used to be a trader. Let me tell you. Trading is not coin tossing. Trading is basically legalized piracy. It requires skill. So does investing.
I very much agree.

I wonder how much traction there will be in the next 18-24 months for a social network service that advertises a "No marketing" policy for it's users. I think people would value a service that refused to advertise to them or otherwise sell their data.
CrunchPad Inc. Formed With 14 Employees In Singapore
just as DNA may have replaced an earlier form of life.

What might that form of life have been like? Was it on earth? Where did it go? Why don't we see any fossil or other remnants of it?
iptables ?

just get rid of it. I have a script that tails my logs standard to detect bots that do not respect the robots.txt file and walls them off. On a bad day there are a few hundred of them. Periodically I flush the tables to get rid of old entries so the load caused by the filter does not become too high.

Your 'friend' seems to be in Korea...
If the government is small enough, the rate of inflation would be smaller than other currencies.

If new cash was created only by government expenditures, and not by a lending model like the Fed, I can easily imagine a smaller inflation rate than any other currency. Just limit spending to be a small percentage of the previous year's growth in GDP.

Then people would avoid taxation in other countries and inflation in other currencies by holding this currency.

In a libertarian sea-steading micro-nation, the government would spend money on the police, courts, and prison (though banishment would be a common punishment). The police could be a few prefects who control robots.
Authorize.net Goes Down, E-Commerce Vendors Left Hanging
Allowing JS and tags - that isn't safe.
I know there are a lot of haters, but I've had no problem integrating with PayPal's PayFlow Pro. It's not PayPal, it's a regular payment gateway. They bought the business from Verisign a while back.

I'm not involved on the business end so I'm not sure what the rates are, but the API is easy to integrate with and it's stable. Though I guess all gateways can have trouble like a datacenter fire.

Your best bet is probably to have a backup gateway and a non-gateway backup like PayPal or Google Checkout. Cover all your bases.
I think you shouldn't be surprised that when you say "people will game the system" the assumed critique is that people won't pay taxes. Again, who cares if some people moves to the sticks? The revenue side is all that really matters in your scenario.
Could you be more useful and explain why not? Like give an example or something...
Interesting setup. So

P(1) == P(2) == 1/6

When A is told that B dies, it's down to 1. or 4.

P(1 or 4) == 1/6 + 1/3 == 1/2

So chance A lives is now

P(1) of P(1 or 4) == 1/6 of 1/2 == 1/3

And the chance C lives is now

P(4) of P(1 or 4) == 1/3 of 1/2 == 2/3
Thanks! People summarizing long videos deserve major upvoting.
Without being an expert I believe that science leans toward the theory that RNA, or something similar, preceeded DNA.
I don't get the GTalk thing... I've made friends with your bot, asked for 'help' got the instructions yet I get no feedback from the bot or any kind of reflection on my account that I've submitted anything.

If it worked, the GTalk integration would be really handy for me as I have Gmail open quite a lot.
Kudos to the Atari Historical Society for saving this code and releasing it! I cut my teeth on Atari 800 6502 assembly code, and spent many hours playing these very games wondering how they wrote them.
I do remember, but I don't remember what the problem was in particular. If you want to you can send me your export file - I'd be happy to test it out.
If that happened, it was certainly a good time before there were multicellular life. Hence, no remnants.

There are some hints that there was an RNA-based world before DNA. A strong one is that ribosomes is made partly from RNA.
You're right, it was just a proof of concept ;) Now it's sanitized though ;) Thx for the "hacking"!
In general, I think blogs should omit introductions to such basic material. It makes more sense to collect the introductions in one place (usually textbooks, but certainly I would welcome someone blogging about intro to something -- see http://www.scottaaronson.com/democritus/ ).

He could explain SAT, but then shouldn't he also explain what a randomized algorithm is, why P=NP is (as he says, possibly) relevant to circuit design, what P and NP are, etc. The problem with this approach is that it doesn't know where to stop (explaining what an algorithm is?).
But you don't get thousands of clicks if you title your article "Bad Programmers Create Shitty Programs".
Wow, a service that critical and that established you'd assume would have geographical distribution...
I feel no pity for people who don't want to see #moonfruit tweets. If it's that big a deal, unfollow your greedy friends who are willing to spam you in order for a shot at a laptop.
A's survival chances don't change because the guard is filtering out the possible answers:
B lives, A gets told A dies
C lives, A gets told A dies
If this is your job why do you use such an awfully bad outdated blog theme? The overall readability is worse than average. Thus I had to end the actual interaction.
IPhone OpenGL programming from the ground up
Authorize.net is in American Fork, UT
XSS - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-site_scripting
Embedding applets, styles and links (although haven't tried these).
You can change window location - window.location='http://example.org/ in a script tag and the code is executable for all chat users.
+1 for Braintree. We also haven't launched yet, but their API is unmatched and their support staff has been very responsive.
How about mibbit? It's pretty simple to use.
Yeah, what drives me crazy is the insistence that java "properties" be hidden behind set/get methods even for simple ones in which their is realistically no need to every intercept their accesses. I think C# and Python at least allow transparent control of properties while still allowing the caller's code to look natural.
As I'm reading I can't help but think about security. We have a lot of fraud because of the system we use now, and he's proposing that we open it up and make things like transfers super easy. I don't think the security is up to snuff yet.
For those who haven't found it yet:

http://twitter.com/authorizenet

I imagine until they get something online this will be the most convenient place for them to put out status updates, but we'll see.
Programmed by Accenture. There's your problem.
actually, most of these changes make the framework a lot simpler.
First Augmented Reality App for iPhone 3GS video
hmm... I was surprised several years back by the announcement when LSE (London Stock Exchange) moved to MSFT server products, since people in banking mostly tell me that Java/Unix is standard.
I say go for it, don't let perceived comfort hold you back! Once summer is over, I will be Urban Camping full time and working out of a library building my startup.

Two days out of the week I am dedicating to my self-education (for which I have pursued over the last four years with much fun).

It's an investment, a big one. I only work 40-50 hours a week to maintain a 1k p/month apartment; when I could be putting those 40-50 hours a week to the startup ideas I have, programming projects (building an Erlang backed triple store), self-education (math, rhetoric, logic, etc...), and DIY projects.

In the end, doing those things that I love and enjoy will bring monetary compensation greater than the job I work at. Since I will be Urban Camping it, my lifestyle couldn't really get 'worse'. Only better.

Do it! Do it! It's like jumping off that 30 foot cliff at the lake - scary to make yourself do it, but, push yourself off the edge and it's one hell of a fun ride.

Please keep us updated, I love the fact that I am meeting like minded people here!
our website was very similar but then our business model changed, and we developed apps for desktop and web which sync, so we had to go back to mainstream website design...
so they add 255 million a year? yeah right
Segmentation is a good thing also from the consumer/buyer viewpoint but "limitations" like this max O/S memory limit are absolutely spinelessly crippled blatant rip-offs, and have no correlation with the actual work required to make those features.

The same goes for the stupid restriction of the maximum of ten simultaneous network connections (can't remember whether it was inbound or both?) imposed in some basic Windows (Home? Professional? vs. Server?) editions.

An operating system shouldn't limit the capabilities of available hardware. They could reasonably decide to not support some heavy-duty server hardware at all except in the server edition. Or they could give the server edition a better I/O scheduler (that can handle large loads) or something to make it a must if you want to use Windows on a server.

But if I have a network adapter in my box I expect to be able to max it out in all imaginable ways regardless of the O/S "edition". Or use as much memory as I can physically fit in my box.
It's really not a new stage of evolution per se. The switch from random variations being selected through breeding, to deliberate enhancement takes us from "evolution" to "intelligent design" by definition.

But he's right overall: we've transitioning into a period in which traits will be passed on by choice rather than by chance.
Snowfall on Mars? NASA's Phoenix Lander recorded it
panicking because of random events doesn't do anyone any good. it's not like any alternative will guarantee that it doesn't happen to them either
Yeah, maybe I'll chase him off later. It's not doing any harm right now though. He's certainly not hitting us as hard as GoogleBot does every second of every day.

Maybe I should even keep him busy so his bot doesn't bother everyone else.
First iPhone 3GS Jailbreak Hits The Web
Sure, but what is it doing in the UI? It isn't a valid option for the selection.
Harry Markowitz developed the modern portfolio theory, the core of mathematical finance. However, when he invested his own money, he invested 50% in bonds, and the other 50% in blue chip stocks. Moral of the story: people tend to be very conservative when it comes to their money.

I also do think that the banking system is living in the dark ages. It's more than obsolete, it's pre-historic. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to hear that some banks still used perforated cards ;-) Well, they still use COBOL...

It's easy to think of ways of innovating the current banking system. But what makes one think that anyone wants to innovate it? Banking is a pillar of society. One can't move the pillars because the edifice standing on them is too heavy.
Not sure it's OSS? It it? And how much can you integrate it in your very own app?
When someone downloads a song, the song still exists to be listened to and sold. When someone steals pizza, it's gone.
VIDEO: Michael Jackson - THIS IS IT TOUR - FINAL REHEARSALS
Good job, overall I like it. I understand your audience and the need to do this in a simple format. Mint & Wesabe are US focused and don't cater to your audience. One thought is to make this available to other audiences - e.g. Chinese, African, etc. Because similar needs exist in those places and all you would have to change is language on your site.

My review is going to sound critical, but assume things I didn't mention are good

My first reaction (in order):

1. How is this better than Mint or Wesabe

2. Why would I start inputting things manually when others can crawl it for me.

3. "Oh this is for an Indian audience" - make this clear on the site

UI:

- Bouncy effects are distracting

- Use row background colors to differentiate between them

- Red cross is too prominent, grabs attention before anything else

- Graph is also grabbing attention which it is meant to but use different palette. You can look at Google Analytics, Woopra, Chartbeat, etc. to get an idea

- "Reason" label makes it seem like I can enter a long explanation but the text field makes it seem like I can enter a short description. Either change the label to something like "Expense Name" or change the text box.

- The sliding background on menu items (top and graph) feels jittery and lags when I move my mouse around too fast. This can be annoying to people with vision issues. Make it simple hover.

- Recent Entries should be horizontal width right under summary (same width as summary), because its the second most important thing I care about on the page. Inputting expense is a secondary task on a regular visit because when I have something input I'm going to seek out that form and record my expense.

- Red flags went up when I saw Sex, Phone, and DoB on the sign-up form. Never going to give that up to a new site. What are you planning on using this info for?

- Chipper on GTalk is another questionable practice. How do we know it's secure? It's fine as long as there won't be any long term personal data exchange.

Other thoughts:
- SMS alerts or updates

- Create a "family" or "group" to track and compete (game like) with others

- If you get enough traction, give people tips on expense categories (e.g. Petrol at the gas station near your work is cheaper than the one you use near your home)

Good Luck. Good job, glad to see people looking to help other markets!
The clearest explanation I've seen is this. Suppose there are 1,000 prisoners one of whom is to live. You ask the guard to tell you which 998 out of the 999 other prisoners will be killed. So there's one he didn't tell you about. Who do you think has a better chance of living - you or the prisoner in the other group whose fate the guard didn't reveal?
Thanks for your feedback guys. I think jeroen is right, It should just clearly say month / year, as the whole idea of the application is to make things simple. instead of mm/yyyy which is very techie and may not be obvious at all to the end user.
If people in banking tell you that Java/Unix is standard (which it is), why does one exchange moving some components to MSFT products impress you?
There is no "standard". In any investment bank you'll find everything from MUMPS to MATLAB, VAX Pascal, APL, Haskell. The result of a) many acquisitions and mergers and b) a culture of if you need something, build it yourself, out of whatever you have to hand. I've seen NeXTStep and OS/2 and even an Amiga on trading floors.
Am I the only one who enjoys the irony of watching the launch of a site that is supposed to help you launch your site?

I love meta.
We're in the process of setting up an account with them. So far, their customer service has been stellar. And their API is supposed to be the best in the industry.
They actually give some pretty sweet 'official' images to use on marketing websites, which is why all the enormous iPhone images look exactly the same.

However, they also have forms that have to be mailed (mailed) in to be able to use the materials, so they legally cover their ass by licensing said materials instead of just handing them out to anyone who stops by.
authorize.net was bought a few years back and there has been few changes to it. Some of the original developers on the authorize.net team have started mtrex. It is a similar service, but things seem to fit together better. I guess the second time around they know what they are doing.
banking is an industry. it's pretencious to ask for help as if they were a charity fund. this way our governments have gave money to them from our pockets. a nice hypothesis of the recession (it's in spanish): http://tinyurl.com/krqu7g
Twitter search for info on the Fischer Plaza fire - http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23fisherplazafire
Are their fees competitive with authorize.net?
> It's not about efficiency, it's about need. These services need to stay at a basic level for everyone regardless of economic conditions.

It's always about efficiency. More to your point, the more important the need, the more important efficiency is.

Do you really think that it's better to provide water for $100 than it is to provide it for $10?

Remember - the claim was "Economies of scale make taxation efficient". Economies of scale aren't the only factor as taxation isn't necessarily efficient. In fact, it tends to be inefficient because it's folks spending other people's money on other people's behalf, which is the worst possible situation for efficiency. (Your money for your benefit is the best - you care about cost and quality. Your money for someone else's benefit, you care less about quality. SOmeone else's money for your benefit, you care less about cost.)

I'm glad that the Dutch govt seems capable of doing certain things. However, that experience doesn't translate. (Current US govt healthcare isn't as good as govt healthcare advocates assert that US govt healthcare will be. In other words, we have an existence argument. Fix US govt healthcare, and their argument becomes credible.)
I was surprised that a major stock exchange would pick something that is not standard.
Ask HN: Objecting to stories being killed
I concur with the value of keeping meta-discussion on HN to a minimum, but sometimes it really surprises me when a story gets killed.

At one point, you could object by commenting in the thread under an existing comment. That often caused moderators to reverse the kill if a legitimate point about relevance was raised. It seems this has been disabled.

This came to mind today when I noticed that the stories of recording studio engineers about the experience of working with Michael Jackson, about his work ethic and management style, was killed after 77 points [1].

If anything, that set of stories is the very most relevant, and definitely the very most interesting, of all the things about Jackson that have been posted here. The stories are told from a very 'hackerly' perspective, and the peripheral environment of the stories -- recording studios and the related technology and business environment -- are interesting to many people in this audience. The comment thread had some interesting tidbits, and looked in no danger of going astray. And as a point of comparison, I very much doubt that a much less interesting or timely 400 word blog post about the "value of a strong work ethic" would have been killed on HN.

Anyway, this is all just peanuts in the long term for HN, but it seems we should work out a way of raising a legitimate objection to a moderator kill without resorting to an 'Ask HN' comment such as this.

[1] http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=685603
I would call those basic rights. In some of the developed world you can receive food, clothing, housing and heat already.

Unfortunately, due to illness, addictions and other problems the programs often have difficulty reaching the people in need.
wtf??? our site can't process orders, any time frame on them coming back up???
Supposition?

Pretty much a guarantee. Do you really think that Obama and Dem congresscritters will let GM die on their watch?

However, the UAW has gotten its first pound of flesh. The "new GM" is closing their best small car factory, the saturn plant, and will start building small cars in Michigan. It's only a coincidence that said plant is in an area with Republican congress critters.

Note that the workers at saturn are covered by a standard UAW contract....
Exactly.

But does anyone that matters really care about XHTML5? Seems like the "pedantics' version" of HTML. None of the major browsers seem to care about it, so why should anyone else?

Am I missing something?

(I used to follow this stuff a lot more closely.)
Dimmunix: A Tool for Deadlock Immunity
That sucks, I just signed up for a merchant account with Authorize.net yesterday thinking they would be more reliable than some newer processors and that I haven't heard of them having downtime before.
Banking is a pillar of society. One can't move the pillars because the edifice standing on them is too heavy.

Perhaps now is the best time, with pillars falling down...
The American media's bias toward English-speaking foreigners
I saw a sign on a GM dealer a few months ago, "100 shares of stock with a new car purchase". LOL, they can't even give their company away!
It's a good prototype. What she needs to do to make it viable is automate it:

1) The flush crank needs to be automatic or at least push button. The energy from the device could power the flush.

2) It needs to be able to output its energy back into the house easily. I think it's a solved problem -- sort of like solar panels.

Once that works, I don't see an issue with sprucing up the visual design a bit and making it all work. There are a couple of issues, but if it's cheap and sanitary it could catch on.
Wait a sec, that's not infrastructure there running in individual trading departments. Major transactional backbones in banking almost all run on Java/Unix as I understand.
Well, you don't look like a shill at all.
> Oh, and of course investors would never cheat on their wives...

You're not counting on investors to give their all and you know that they have other investments.
How to jailbreak the iPhone 3GS
aaarghhh Mumps...

what do you mean you reset the editor string ?
Success means "not extinct".
He may not have any data to support his position, but neither do you.
I think your evaluation of the post may have been somewhat rushed.

- The poster is a notable complexity theorist and is not "just trying to get attention".

- Doron Zeilberger's "a lot more interesting" take is completely subsumed in Richard Lipton's blogpost, in that it mentions other possibilities beyond the basic "what if it's polynomial with a really huge exponent" scenario.

- Assuming computational power to increase exponentially indefinitely is completely ridiculous, and without the "indefinitely" part this assumption no longer works to justify "easy = P".

- It is trivial to say that if P=NP, then AM=MA, because both AM and MA are in the polynomial hierarchy, and if P=NP, the hierarchy collapses completely.

- The most important point to be taken away from the blogpost is not just that "easy = P" is an assumption that's been held on too unreflectively and may not turn out to be true. It's that studying what this assumption means, how it could break down, and why it hasn't, by and large, broken down so far, may get us closer to understanding P ?= NP.