skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
You are, frankly, speaking nonsense. As you pointed out, the tests will assuredly not be independent of each other.

Second, what you have calculated is... I don't know. You are calculating the cumulative distribution function for a binomial distribution with n=30, p=0.95. How on earth does that relate to the previous post? Are you somehow confusing a p-value -- which is a statement about the minimal alpha for a rejection region such that given a set of data X and a test, we would reject our null hypothesis H_0 -- and a probability? Because they have almost nothing to do with each other.
That's the most interesting not-really-about-computers article I've read on HN in the last two years.
Right, but there's radio stations and street musicians and concerts and stuff, right?
Yeah, it also looks incredibly wasteful. I would hope that the non-sterile bits like that gigantic thumb-pad are removable and re-usable.
Turns out my results were pretty disappointing. Sigh. I guess my extended network is just not that interesting.
I'm glad someone else is really taking the original article to task. However, I will say there is one particular Monte Carlo Methods researcher, who shall remain nameless, that definitely fits this mold!
(awesome? bioinformatics)
Thanks, looks like I'll have to brush up on my stats to analyze this further... But even without direct knowledge of how this works, shouldn't the "goodness" of the tests play a role in the numbers you're using? It doesn't seem to...

> I thought you meant "at least two tests", for obvious reasons.

Yes, sorry, I did, I guess you meant to say I should subtract 0.553542075 from 1 to get my answer.

(just saw earl's post above...)
Holden Caulfield is an Establishment figure's idea of a rebellious youth. Privileged life, no real problems, whiny about small hypocrisies, ambivalent about sex, and deep down he wishes to return to innocence.

This has become the acceptable image of youthful discontent, the one that educational institutions prescribe for their students.
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Bumpy Ride for Boeing's 787 Dreamliner
It will take time to fix the root of the problem, sure, I buy that. What I don't buy is that Facebook has no ability to make it right with the customers before that time.
Thanks earl for this post, I thought the calculation looked off... but I don't have the statistical background to say much. :-)
But, isn't that the same both ways? I have personally been on the "out-of-luck" side most of my life, even for routine care.

Would be wonderful to get at least the basics in place.
Did you try -popular and -popular -15 ?
The Myth of Prevention
I will add another interpretation from my HS English teacher: whether anything in the book actually happened.

Read the first page: "Besides, I'm not going to tell you my whole goddam [sic] autobiography or anything. I'll just tell you about this madman stuff that happened to me around last Christmas just before I got pretty run-down and had to come out here and take it easy."

Holden is in a mental hospital. This is confirmed on the last page [approx.] of the book.

"I could probably tell you what I did after I went home, and how I got sick and all, and what school I'm supposed to go to next fall, after I get out of here."

From that, Holden is in the hospital. The last line of the book says, "Don't ever tell anybody anything. If you do, you start missing everybody."

From what I remember, this means that Holden made up all of those stories. His family realized he was crazy because they know none of those things actually happened, put him in the hospital, and now he doesn't get to see his family or friends very often.
It would be awesome if they made a zombie killing fantasy game like this on the iphone that overlayed the zombies lifesize into whatever scene you are in. Imagine fighting off an invisible zombie hoard in your local mall or at the bus stop. Multiplayer would be a blast as well.
Commentators are “explaining” the Iran elections based on their own illusions, delusions, emotions, and vested interests. Whether or not the poll results predicting Ahmadinejad’s win are sound, there is, so far, no evidence beyond surmise that the election was stolen. However, there are credible reports that the CIA has been working for two years to destabilize the Iranian government.

On May 23, 2007, Brian Ross and Richard Esposito reported on ABC News: “The CIA has received secret presidential approval to mount a covert “black” operation to destabilize the Iranian government, current and former officials in the intelligence community tell ABC News.”

On May 27, 2007, the London Telegraph independently reported: “Mr. Bush has signed an official document endorsing CIA plans for a propaganda and disinformation campaign intended to destabilize, and eventually topple, the theocratic rule of the mullahs.”

A few days previously, the Telegraph reported on May 16, 2007, that Bush administration neocon warmonger John Bolton told the Telegraph that a US military attack on Iran would “be a ‘last option’ after economic sanctions and attempts to foment a popular revolution had failed.”

On June 29, 2008, Seymour Hersh reported in the New Yorker: “Late last year, Congress agreed to a request from President Bush to fund a major escalation of covert operations against Iran, according to current and former military, intelligence, and congressional sources. These operations, for which the President sought up to four hundred million dollars, were described in a Presidential Finding signed by Bush, and are designed to destabilize the country’s religious leadership.”

--> http://www.counterpunch.org/roberts06192009.html

Yep, a full blown infowar is what we have here.
Ok, here's my null hypothesis: the election is not rigged. We are going to assume that this null hypothesis is true. Now, we run 30 tests on the data. What is the probability that at least two tests reject the null hypothesis with 95% confidence? That's the question I'm answering.
Zombies hate rainbows.
Which webpage are you talking about?
If I recall correctly that was explored in my class. What I meant in the original comment was the fact that he misinterpreted the poem.
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Race is on for up-to-the-minute search engine
African solar power could be answer to Europe's energy woes
Try dropping this code on your address bar, only works on Firefox 3.5

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(Click on "share location" button when asked, privacy concerns)
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Thanks for the advice, you're almost certainly right.

Also, I might use the line "Customers and money are the solution to most problems" as the mantra for my venture.
Honestly, I think the idea is pretty neat. The website looks pretty good and for general answers I think this model may work. That being said, if a university student posted an assignment question on here and then answered that question exactly as on an assignment, that is tantamount to cheating. I know when I was in university(which wasn't too long ago) my professors were on top of plagiarism and such, and tend to watch for these type of things.

With a site like this, it doesn't stay a students best kept secret for long and once the cat is out of the bag its only going to cause trouble for students using it.

That being said, its a pretty good idea, I'd be interested to see how this pans out.
What discussion? You know, when I told my dad how you guys took my karma away from me for making a joke about a post about something I should have as a reminder in the calendar on my phone, it really ruined his Father's Day. I think I might even have seen the beginning of a tear, but he manned-up and held it back.
Content MathML to the rescue: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MathML#Content_MathML
You said it, venturing into the unknown isn't easy, especially for those that with a lot of pride; getting over your ego is tough and if this video [http://www.shadowcat.co.uk/archive/conference-video/yapc-eu-...] doesn't help you realize that many beginners share this same sentimental fear of failure than at least hear this, you will fail. . .irregardless of you expectations, failure is inevitable; however, here is the trick, if you set yourself up for a lot of little failures upfront (sorta like lesson plans or exercises from a textbook) then at least you have a foundation for knowing what works and what doesn't.

Lastly here are three rules of thumb that have helped me along the way: 1) If you want to read then you need to write. 2) If you want write then you need read. 3) Read, write, fail, and vigorously iterate until your ideas and expressions get executed in real-time
I concur. It isn't taught well.

The interpretation presented to me in school was that Holden was simply unwell and that anyone experiencing the kind of angst and alienation described in the book is sick and will end up in a mental hospital. As if it were a cautonary tale against having negative thoughts and feelings.

I didn't buy it at the time, but it was only years later that I realized just how much was lost in reading it that way.
That's what I don't understand: Weeks before the election several polls (including ones by Western newspapers) predicted a 2 to 1 win for Ahmadinejad. These predictions were all fairly uncontroversial as far as I could tell.

Now suddenly everywhere I look there's stories about young photogenic Iranians getting shot at while protesting the election results. I keep hearing about claims that the election was rigged but so far I've not seen anything concrete.

The only way I can make sense of this is by assuming infowar / agent provocateur / other covert tactics employed by the USA. Iran has been a thorn in the side of America's middle-eastern foreign interests for a long time, and poking holes in it's democratic process is an important step.

I can't even visit Reddit at the moment, every second story is about Americans getting angry at Ahmadinejad.
Memory Usage in Chrome (devs discussing the benchmark posted by dotnetperls)
I think it may have been in this talk, but the solution when the customers actually demand the multiple choices is to do the best of both worlds- the "Greek Restaurant" - Have a menu filled with just about every dish imaginable, but then have a page in front in large print that says something like "Recommended Choices" and put the highest margin items on there. The customer feels like they _could_ choose something if they were in the mood, but they can feel good about simply ordering one of the suggested choices.
This recent news flash seems to give more solid evidence of electoral tampering:

"Iran's Guardian Council says the number of votes collected in 50 cities surpass the number of people eligible to vote."

Since the Guardian Council is a highly conservative organization, it can be reasonably surmised that any possible fraud would have to be rather significant for them to make a statement about it.

To read a highly detailed analysis of the election, and signs that it could have been stolen, read this recent piece from The Economist:
http://www.economist.com/world/mideast-africa/displayStory.c...
Abandoned Places In The World
JMP can do such analysis in a more GUI-oriented manner if you prefer. Here's a 30-day trial:
http://www.sas.com/apps/demosdownloads/jmptrial8_PROD__sysde...
I spent some time looking at the issue today, and you may be right. I sketched out a very naive design which would be very simple but quickly grow to millions of rows, I suspect with a little research I may be able to solve it easier than I initially assumed (I'm giving myself a pre-emptive RTFM here)

What I need is to track an exercise regimen. Some issues are basic- columns for user ID, exercise ID, but I don't see how to keep track of things like number of reps & weight without growing quickly. I want to be able to log every day how many repetitions of each lift a user does and how much weight was used. Anyone spot an easy solution I'm not seeing?
True, but learning without doing can also be a waste of time. It's kind of like reading four books on iPhone programming before you write a line of code: you can be almost sure that an hour into your iPhone programming, you're going to start thinking of things that the books didn't make you think about, or problems that they don't tell you (specifically) how to solve. Doing while learning will be doubly-effective because you'll have book learning at the same time that you're running into real-world problems.

It's like writing a full spec. before writing any code for a project. As soon as you get a layer or two into the complexity, you start coming up with different problems and different requirements (that you never thought of before you started).
I might forgive you for being an asshole if you were particularly witty about it, but you're not. You're sniping for no reason.
A Glimpse of a Future to Change the Now
I have a saying, plucked from Team America, of all places: "You need a montage."

Basically, there's a reason films about a person standing up to triumph over a powerful adversary often compress the most important intervening moments, in which the person acquires their capacity to overcome, into a short segment: because those intervening moments aren't fun, and they aren't entertaining, even if they are ultimately fulfilling.

So it's what I say when people talk to me about being frustrated with the difficulty of steps made toward their aspirations: "You need a montage." As in, you're going to have to slog through a bunch of difficult, tedious stuff if you ever hope to overcome the odds against you.

But knowing that, and taking it on even so, is what marks so many great achievements.
It's a clever idea, but as someone who has worked for (and listed as references) supervisors who were extremely flaky, extremely busy, or both, I would never want to judge someone based solely on whether or not their references promptly return a call.
The mental hospital I can see - I've heard that before - but I don't know if I'd go from that to saying it was all fictitious. It seems too detailed to be fiction, and it never slips up and reveals itself to be potentially phony. (That raises the fun postmodern question of this being a story-within-a-story, but I don't think that was Salinger's intent at all.)

Of course, the fun thing about fiction that also doesn't get said enough is that the debating over what happened is part of the fun. I had one teacher who would present these analyses like they were hard fact, when in reality the only fact is what the author gives you, and the analyses can be debated with that in mind.
I designed and built a key electrical system to this plane during late-spring of 2007. I don't know whether I can say which one. Anyway, the company I worked for was at the end of the line as far as outsourcing goes. Boeing outsourced the design, development, and manufacturing to one the world's largest corporations (Company A), who outsourced it to another company of similar size (Company B), who then outsourced it to the much much smaller company that I worked for (Company C) some time in mid-Spring 07.

We knew in May 07 that there was a 0% chance that the 787 would actually fly on 7/8/07; a critical component was still in development. For that certain critical component, Company A dictated to Company B which one to use and who to buy it from (Company D). The problem is that the part was still in development by Company D. The electrical component specifications significantly stretched what actually existed on the market at that time. I didn't think Company D would be successful in designing the critical component. It was certainly a big leap forward. We knew that Company D would not have the part done by July 07. The hope was August of that year.

In June 07 my company successfully designed and built a few prototypes of the system we were tasked to build. They passed all specifications dictated by Boeing, Company A, and Company B. We dutifully delivered the prototypes to Company B in June 07. The only problem was critical component from Company D wasn't there, and therefore the 787 could not fly.

I don't know whether Company D ever delivered. But I do know that Company B (the company that outsourced to us) ordered a few more of the product I designed at the end of last year, and the critical component from Company D was not supplied to my company. I don't know whether the part existed. But it doesn't seem likely since Company B would have had us put it in. My guess is that Company D, or a replacement outsourcer, was able to deliver some time at the beginning of this year, maybe Spring. Hence the two year delay.

I no longer work at the company where I designed this system, so I no longer have any first hand knowledge of the goings on. But from what I read in the article, the root cause of the delays has not been fixed. I would put my money on further delays.
I'm poking a little fun at these types of threads because let's face it, they have nothing to do with this site. And anyone who needs a Hacker News post to remind them when Fathers Day is and what its purpose is... is clearly missing the point of Fathers Day.

Bottom line, I'm kidding around. You can give me the benefit of the doubt of making a little joke with no ill-intent... or you can call me an asshole. I'll leave it up to you to decide which is worse.
Heh. I called you an asshole in regard to your second post, not that original one. I actually agree with its intent: These posts are rather silly. But snarking about it wasn't the right thing to do, IMHO.
Of course this guy is going to disagree with the abrasive genius idea, because he himself is one of the conscientious and agreeable types, as evidence by his dismissal of IQ as disagreeable.

I don't know why scientists think they are immune to all the social rules that govern every other aspect of life. One of those is agreeableness. People like to be agreed with - right or wrong. This is true in science too. Scientists are humans. They make mistakes. They are biased.

Look at the scientists who have disagreed with the idea that humans are responsible for and can stop Global Warming. Their voice has been repeatedly stamped out by the rest of the scientific community.
Sorry, did I miss something? Protesters are being shot and killed in Iran, right? American progressives haven't deluded themselves to the point where they think this is just as likely to happen in today's America as it is in Iran, have they?
It doesn't like my password, but I have no idea why. All it will tell me is "Enter correct Password. ". Maybe some hint on why my password doesn't meet your password constraints?

Edit: Apparently I can't have an exclamation point in my password. That's absurd.
Yes - sounds like an excellent candidate for an A/B split test and an enlightening follow-up post on HN!
Refreshingly honest.

I'm impressed to see this sort of viewpoint in the WSJ.
We had a game of Monopoly that inadvertently led to this once we allowed combined onwership on a property group (or at least people giving the group to one owner in exchange for 1/3rd rent). By the end one player had permanent immunity everywhere but no properties and most had various 1/18th shares of rent coming in...
I would say no:

Because if the tests are independent, then something is well and truly broken! Your bernoulli CDF is for independent draws.

Further, consider a hypothesis test. You feed it a desired chance of type I error -- say 0.05 -- and it gives you rejection regions for your test statistic. That is, it picks some subset of the domain of the test statistic and labels that as "reject H0" and labels the complement as "accept H0." Claiming that these 30 acceptance / rejection regions will somehow be independent of each other isn't true -- since our tests are accurate, or at least reasonably so, the accept / reject regions will be the same, or nearly so.

Could it be possible to find tests with totally conflicting accept / reject regions? I'd say that's highly unlikely -- the regions would then be complements of each other. What is possible is that you will find paired tests with AR regions that are slightly different. But now you are asking the probability that your test statistic lands in conflicting areas of at least 2 pairs of these test regions. Again, this can be modeled -- try MCMC, perhaps -- but it will not be anything like bernoulli.

Further,

Does this make any sense?
At the risk of sounding like I don't have a sense of humor- it's not really arbitrary (at least not until you dig way deeper). Celebrating at a time when the earth has completed a revolution allows people to remember exactly when to celebrate- kind of an old-school time-management trick, so to speak. If we didn't have calendars, we could still have rocks sticking up with a line engraved somewhere on the ground to give us that same reminder- almost exactly once every year.

It's a convenience. ;)
Some writers, when faced with a problem, think "I know, I'll use a cliche". Now they have two problems.
i think the reason some people are throwing around the cia/black-ops hypothesis is that all they've ever heard about iran is in the last couple years. which basically meant pursuit of nuclear weapons and a holocaust denying Ahmadinejad. but i think it might help to put the whole thing in a broader context.

what we're seeing right now is another chapter of the iranian revolution. it's been a long story that it started in '79. and these protests themselves are morphing from simply an electoral protest to one that is a continuation of the student protests during khatami's presidency a decade ago.

america has had zero to no presence in iran, much less any tangible way of 'destabalizing' the regime. the money the cia has been throwing at this problem for the last decade has been at things like VOA (voice of america radio broadcasts inside iran) or tacit moral support for minority separatists in iran.

this is not to deny that the west has huge stakes on the outcomes of this, as evidenced by the US government's intervention with the twitter downtime thing and the significant media coverage, or maybe even fake twittering and blogging.

but given the choice of whether an autocratic paranoid regime has rigged the vote to suppress its young population OR a secret cia operation is pulling the levers of what by all accounts seems like an organic grass roots social uprising--i choose the former.
On the other side, if you ask someone to be a reference, make sure 1) that you had a real working relationship and 2) to explicitly ask them 'would you be willing to provide a strong reference for me'.
All of the election polls that I'd seen predicting a 2-1 win also had 40-60 percent of the respondents not responding. That they all broke for Ahmadinejad seems... unlikely.
"Chatham House and the Institute of Iranian Studies at the University of Saint Andrews said that in two conservative provinces, Mazandaran and Yazd, the number of votes cast exceeded the number of eligible voters."

"The study also said that the official results suggest Mr. Ahmadinejad won the support of 47.5 percent of those who backed reformist candidates in 2005. The study's authors called that figure "highly implausible."
Does the Linux Desktop Innovate Too Much?