>Business cycle is up temporarily on cheap credit. There is no substance to it.

The money will pay your bills as well as any other money.

My point here is that you can't do anything about this ebb and flow of money, 'fake' or not. Point is, you need some. I need some. Not a whole hell of a lot, really, on a global scale, but you need some money very badly. Even if it's "fake" money that isn't being managed in the way you like.

>70% of new hires since 2008 in the US are part time. The debt to GDP ratio is higher than ever. Food stamps are on record high.

The market for labor is intensely local, but local in a different way from the market for real-estate. Yeah, most folks are still getting shit upon. The business cycle isn't 'up' for them at all.

But it's 'up' for the sort who read hacker news. Engineer salaries are through the roof. I can't keep a PFY. Used to be that I'd keep someone for years if I hired them full-time; tens of months if I hired them part-time. The last few PFYs got yanked out from under me within the first month or two. [1]

The bubble is localized to our industry (and to a lesser extent, to my physical area.)

You.. sound foreign, so I'm guessing you don't remember what it was like in silicon valley and outlying areas in the early to mid-aughts? [2] It was /really bad/ for computer folks, and really not all that bad for everyone else. I had many, many friends who were of my technical level working retail. It was really bad for us. (but the retail jobs were still there; everyone else was largely fine.)

Right now? it's our turn for the good times, while everyone else suffers. I'm not saying it's fair or good... just that it is, and shouting that money is a government construct, and that they are trying their damnedest to generate some inflation (no shit.) changes nothing.

>Inflation if used Ronald Reagan years formula and not today's hocus-pocus hedonistic whatever is at 10%. The whole thing seems to work just because of the interest rates at 0% since 2008. And you can't have them at zero forever.

I don't understand why people seem to think inflation is some kind of crazy boogyman. Think about it. Everyone is in debt. Much of that is fixed-rate debt. Real inflation (including wage inflation) would be good for all of those people.

In fact, I personally believe inflation, nationwide, really is close to as low as they say. It's hard to have real inflation without wage inflation, and we're only seeing that here in silicon valley. From what I understand, this is a problem. We need inflation (especially wage inflation) to deal with our consumer debt problem.

Now, what we've been seeing is inflation in commodities, which is about the worst-case all around. We need inflation in wages (which will result in general price inflation, but so long as wages inflate, too, I think that's just fine.)

Of course, all that macro bullshit is just that; it's bullshit. I'm no expert, and I'm not convinced at all that the experts know anything themselves.

I do have some experiences with this industry, though, and the bit about making hay while the sun is shining? it's real. It's way easier to make career progress while the (local) economy is up.

[1]I don't begrudge them that; that's the whole deal with hiring apprentices. They take the job for low pay so they can get the job for high pay after they have built some experience with you. If one of your employees gets hired away for 2x or 3x the maximum amount you could pay them, there's really nothing to do but congratulate them and ask if they know anyone who might want their old job. (That's how I get my best recruiting leads.) But it does mean that the job market for smart young programmers/sysadmins is hotter than it was.

[2]I mean no insult; Your English is not terrible for a native speaker, and English is a tough language. I'm a monoglot, myself.

I guess the corollary here is that if you still aren't in the US or in silicon valley, well, you probably see things rather differently than I do.