Former Microsoft Business Division head Elop became Nokia CEO in September 2010. In February 2011, he wrote his burning platforms memo. By the time April 2011 rolled around, Nokia stock was still worth more than HTC's. That month the stocks would meet in (market cap) price, and then HTC would begin pulling ahead of Nokia.

You say Nokia could be "down there with HTC (despite the One)" and that "HTC realizes that heavy marketing is needed". HTC is worth $163 billion. Nokia is worth $15 billion. For the first seven months Elop was CEO (late 2010, early 2011), Nokia was worth more than HTC. It would be a shareholder's dream for Nokia to be "down their with HTC" right now. People were making the same arguments back then (including Elop). If the market is the ultimate arbiter, Nokia, which as worth more than HTC when Elop wrote his burning platform memo, is now worth less than 10% of HTC. Investors who are putting their money where their confidence of future prospects are don't have much confidence in the decision for Windows. Nokia felt it had to make a choice and focus, and went from being worth more than HTC to worth $15 billion. HTC put out two products and is worth $163 billion.

HTC might be struggling to compete with Samsung and Apple, but it's still in the ball game, Nokia has been left far, far behind. Even if Windows market percentage does start picking up - Samsung and HTC put out Windows phones as well. Nokia has to compete in the big smartphone picture, and they have to compete even in the Windows smartphone picture. As I said, I go to the Windows smartphone kiosk in the back of the store and Samsung and HTC have phones alongside the Nokia. Wasn't one of the comments about Windows phones how they're all more or less the same with tiles and such, while Android phones could have their homescreens changed so much? So you have a Samsung, Nokia and HTC Windows smartphone which in software is less distinguishable from one another than a Samsung and HTC Android phone. It's more of a commodity. Plus IDC says for 2013 Q1 sales, Android has 75% of the worldwide market, iPhone 17.3%, Blackberry 2.9% and Windows 3.2%. So Nokia competes with Samsung and HTC for that 3.2% of the market, instead of competing with Samsung and HTC in that 75% of the market.

Google Maps does undercut Navteq, but that's going to happen no matter what Nokia does. If Apple can't move off Google Maps without a disaster, then it's nothing that a company like Nokia can affect by its choice of platform.

You're right of course about Microsoft's willingness to pump billions into joint marketing efforts with Nokia. It still doesn't seem to have helped though. For 2013 Q1 sales, Nokia is fighting for a piece of Windows's 3.2% of the marketplace against Samsung, HTC etc. Android's market share is 75%, with all the benefits behind a market of that size. Many developers are focused on Android. It's openness has helped it in many ways. Manufacturers get Android for free, while they have to pay Microsoft for its unpopular OS.

I think Elop made a mistake back in late 2010, early 2011. The market seems to agree with me. Nokia had a decent brand name in many parts of the world, they were known to have good cameras and such. They could have had a chunk of Android's 75% market share. Instead they fight for a piece of Windows's 3.2% market share with Samsung, HTC etc.