> Cyprus is historically a part of Greece but on a map it is closer to Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Israel and even Egypt.

Actually aside from a small part of the Bronze Age, Cyprus was never a part of Greece. It had been Ptolemaic Egyptian, Byzantine and changed hands between Knights Templar and various others before becoming Venetian then finally succumbing to Ottoman invasion in the 1570s. The Ottomans leased Cyprus to the British in exchange for guarantees of support against Russian invasions of the Ottoman Empire, but the successor state of the Republic of Turkey relinquished all claims to Cyprus, leaving it a British Crown Colony. Many of the Turkish Cypriots originally came in the Ottoman period and the idea of Enosis was formed under Greek nationalism (Hellenism had been promoted throughout Cyprus long before modern Greece's existence) during this period before and just after the Greek independence war. It is this, the subsequent neglect and the approach taken under British rule (and subsequent independence) that led to the problems of a divided Cyprus today.

In this respect, it is absolutely nothing like the Falklands whatsoever. If anything, the situation between Greece, Turkey and Cyprus is more like the situation between the UK and Ireland with respect to Northern Ireland. Modern Turkey has no interest whatsoever in annexing Cyprus, only protecting ethnic Turks (which it is bound to do by it's constitution).

> The only reason these situations persist is because the nations involved are still able to wage war at a distance, if Greece should go bankrupt (or even if the Greek-Cypriot part of Cyprus would go under) there would likely be a re-alignment of interests such that the cost of maintaining the outpost by force no longer outweighed the benefits.

You're really off the mark here. Greece in general has no interest in enosis. It's generally been something pushed by Greek nationalists both in Cyprus and Greece but both countries have their own problems at the moment that wouldn't be solved by unification with each other. To be clear, Greece and Turkey were both dragged into conflict because of the Treaty of Guarantee agreed in Zurich, making Turkey, Greece and Britain the guarantors of certain elements of Cyprus' status as an independent country.

> If Greece and/or Cyprus would end up being unable to maintain the status of the Greek portion of Cyprus Turkey would have to weigh the advantages of going all in on Cyprus versus the disadvantages of cutting a lot of ties with the EU, which arguably has been stringing along Turkey with the promise of membership without the intention of actually following through on that promise for a very long time now.

Turkey would not go all in on Cyprus. They don't want a war. To be honest if TRNC told Turkey they wanted to join Cyprus, I'm sure Turkey would welcome it with open arms. Turkey wants whatever the people of TRNC want, just as the UK would support whatever decision Northern Ireland would make on self determination.

As for EU membership, I go to Turkey quite often and I've seen no interest in EU membership for a very long time at the political and street level. Most Turkish businesses like the common market but don't see why Turkey should join the Euro (and think they've dodged a bullet), and resent France's anti-Turkish posturing.