> Game engines have long supported OpenGL. Mobile profiles are now more common, but if your argument is that DirectX is no longer relevant because of OpenGL -- this arguably would have happened a long time ago. Game engines were probably some of the first to support the OpenGL (even before DX and D3D became relevant).

Actually, no. The largest game engine of last generation was Unreal 3, which never had comprehensive and direct opengl support (I don't know how they hacked OSX in there) and supported the ps3 through the DRM library (handhelds were through GLES). The only U3 game ported to openGL was Dungeon Defenders for the recent Humble Bundle. If more games and engines were on opengl, porting to Linux would be a simple recompile a significant majority of the time, because they don't depend on win32 for the sake of the same cross platform behavior.

> Steambox stands a chance if they do exclusives on their platform of things like HalfLife and Portal.

They could just be the best value proposition. I don't think people will ever stop buying Xboxes, Playstations, or Wiifus since they always have first class exclusives. I just think that if the Steambox and steam sale system works, either the other platforms will have to dramatically cut prices to compete, or they will lose out on major sales. And a big difference is that Steam games work anywhere you can install Steam, and the platform is also a value proposition.

> Shield doesn't look particularly more inviting than the PSVita. I think the dedicated portable game device is probably dead.

In many ways, that is the beauty of Shield. It isn't a dedicated gaming device, it runs stock Android and has controller buttons built in. Sure, the platform isn't a great idea if you aren't going to game on it, but it can easily function as a general purpose tablet outside of gaming. I am certain one of the analog sticks on shield will behave like swiping for the purposes of app emulation. It would be nice for reading web pages. It also can act as a netflix machine, or any movie or audio player. PSVita doesn't have that luxury.

The other reason to put more faith in the Shield than Vita is that targeting Shield targets 70% of the phone market and 30% of the tablet market. It targets a platform that will continue to grow, and you release your game not as an in-store one time purchase physical flash memory card but off the Play Store and as such will be a continuous source of revenue (despite Play games selling for significantly less than console counterparts, but I imagine dedicated Android gaming platform owners will buy games).

> Ouya -- breakout success for them would be getting 1% of the market. Which they may get. It'll be niche at best.

They won't even get that. The Ouya succeeds not if they move a lot of units but if games developed for Android start supporting hardware controllers. As soon as that happens, the Ouya isn't niche at all, and games that target Android and work on it just make it a positive value proposition to complement other Android devices you already have. It runs reskinned Android though, so I don't know if it as capable as a Shield as a general media device.

> I will let you know right now what can totally change the tide in gaming... Oculus Rift (and VR headset in general). Seems easier to pull off then the MS Illumiroom and would provide a more immersive scenario. If a platform can pull this off at a reasonable price point ($99/headset max) -- I predict they win.

I'd like to see the OR work out too, but I think the market for VR headsets isn't that big. It is comparable to 3d tvs, albeit less gimmicky in most ways. I don't see myself going out of my way to stick on a helmet to play Doom 3. Then again, I didn't like the ideas behind motion controllers either, so I'm probably just outside that demographic. I like moving pictures with some buttons to press to make things happen.