skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Bit of backstory....

In the mid 2005s, the 'tube' sites emerged serving theoretically user-generated content in the vein of Youtube. In reality, very few actually focused on ameteur material, and most just had full videos or clips from paysites.

The ones with full videos were considered to be 'illegal' tubes but the adult market doesn't have an organization with the clout or lawyers equivalent of the RIAA so most of the content stayed up.

The tube sites made their money through advertising and through CPA affiliate programs for paysite networks. Paysites had a love-hate relationship with the tubes. On the one hand, they got traffic conversions. On the other hand, the tubes would use content without authorization which hurt the conversion ratios, and made the paysite content as a whole less valuable to surfers in the know.

Manwin was originally a paysite network, but unlike their competition they embraced the idea of tubes. They launched paid-content websites (under the Brazzers brand) while founding their own tube network (KeezMovies, PornHub).

That vertical integration gave them higher margins than the compeition---they owned both the traffic generators and the eventual paysites needed for conversions. As they became more successful, they went on a buying spree and through various mergers and name changes emerged with over 10 paysite networks under their brand as either wholly owned entities or content partners (e..g Playboy), and 8 of top ten tube sites.

As for margins....

I believe there was a margins slump from 2007 onwards due to the slump in the advertising market as a whole. But mainstream adprices are creeping upwards, so adult-side margins should also be improving.

> companies often sell for something like 1x earnings

AFAIK all deals are closed behind the scenes, and mostly between private parties. So the information on the sale price is not good.
It does. If the simulation is buggy, we could hack it and "get out of the box" :). See also:
http://lesswrong.com/lw/qk/that_alien_message/
My parents bought their house 25 years ago 250k and sold it for 1.5m. Now they are renting a 2 br apt for 1500/month. Their housing cost will be roughly 25k/yr and they are millionaires. The idea that the article talks about how you can't be long the housing market is just dumb. His analogy doesn't work and to say that you can't benefit from house prices going up is dumb.
USA is the best
Do you want me to upvote ?
Why OS/2 failed
> You cannot leave the simulation.

At any level of simulation we know that when we take time, it takes time in the reality that hosts us too. It's nice to know we'll always have that in common.
Ask HN: An introspective look at programming skills
The below is an extract from "The Art of Learning" by Josh Waitzkin

""""
It is very important for athletes to do this kind of visualization work, in a form appropriate to their discipline, but often when we are caught up in the intense routine of training and competition, it feels like we have no time for the internal stuff. I know this quite well. Sometimes when I am in the heat of tournament preparation, months will pass with brutal sparring, constant pain, hitting the mats hundreds of times a night while drilling throws, and then I’ll realize that I’ve moved a bit away from what really makes things tick. Then I’ll spend a week doing soft, quiet work on timing, perception, reading and controlling my opponent’s breath patterns and internal blinks, subtle unbalancing touches that set up the dramatic throws that ultimately steal the spotlight. After these periods of reflection, I’ll almost invariably have a leap in ability because my new physical skills are supercharged by becoming integrated into my mental framework.
The importance of undulating between external and internal (or concrete and abstract; technical and intuitive) training applies to all disciplines, and unfortunately the internal tends to be neglected. Most intelligent NFL players, for example, use the off-season to look at their schemes more abstractly, study tapes, break down aerial views of the field, notice offensive and defensive patterns. Then, during the season they sometimes fall into tunnel vision, because the routine of constant pain requires every last bit of reserves. I have heard quite a few NFL quarterbacks who had minor injuries and were forced to sit out a game or two, speak of the injury as a valuable opportunity to concentrate on the mental side of their games. When they return, they play at a higher level. In all athletic disciplines, it is the internal work that makes the physical mat time click, but it is easy to lose touch with this reality in the middle of the grind.

"""""

The idea suggested above is very intriguing, but begs the question what are the internal and external training components when applied to a software programmer/engineer?
That makes sense. I don't think I really swivel that much as I just slightly turn my head which gives me basically two monitors of screen. So basically I have my main screen which is full view. I turn my head slightly to the left and I see half the left screen. Same goes with the right.

The other half of the screen on both the left and right sides are used for less common things like email, dashboards , etc (though most of my right side is used for that too.. its a lot of space hehe).

So in reality you may have three big screens but you are really only using two without actually swiveling your head (one + half + half).

If I want to use the far half on either of the side monitors I do tilt (which is why they mostly have static stuff).

Though for everything you need to kind of break it up in sections because your eyes are moving around a lot if you are trying to do stuff with the whole screen (ie: if you play a game its harder because you have to keep looking at the four corners to get all the info), but for programming and other stuff you might use a split screen or triple split and just be working on X file in a part of the screen.
As mentioned elsewhere in the thread, you are not short some dollar value but short some "survivalship house value" based upon your own subjective tolerance for what is a "minimally viable living situation."

If you live in the bay area, you may be short the "house value" equivalent of $500k, but living in Illinois you may be short the "house value" equivalent of $250k. Of course the location is part of the "minimally viable" part for certain people, but for others this is a less important part of "viability". Regardless, it's not a dollar value, it's "house living value", and anything beyond that part of the equity in the house you own (for most people: the majority of it) is speculation/investment into the real estate market.
The major tube sites from the looks of things are primarily dominated by other sites trying to fight for traffic via branded videos, or by cutting a deal with the owner to have branded pages that not only showcase their uploaded content, but a few banners here and there to try and push half satisfied viewers to the core content hub.

I'd guess that the tube site is getting some sort of service fee for allowing the sites to have a "premium" service, as well as some sort of kick back depending on the conversion rate from leads generated by the content (why the premium videos are generally listed higher).

If you think that 1) the videos are legit and that guy just happened to stumble across those two girls in the woods, then you're also going to also believe that 2) most of the content is amateur. - It's a sad truth that the industry preys on the weak minded.

I'd say that a fair amount is self-uploaded (via content bought from providers, or produced specifically for the site), but a majority is uploaded from other content houses to try to promote themselves. Think Free to air TV... average crap shows, filled with 80% advertising.
Agree - I wanted to point out the problem with the seemingly rosy situation of using leverage to "get ahead." There are many people that think they are being financially smart by buying as much a house as the bank will give them with the assumption they will bank the difference while seemingly never paying attention to where their paycheck is evaporating each month.
Why is it "financially impossible"?
You're right, that's not the only issue. The "Windows Store" apps are limited to a specific subset of what we're accustomed to coming from Win32 and COM. Much of this is designed to sandbox applications.

So there's a new API and the new API is async all the way through. The async aspect gets a lot of attention because it's so pervasive, and can require some adapting. But you're right, the limited API can have a larger impact on a porting effort.

BTW, my point about no database API is in reference to the lack of System.Data (ADO.NET). The assumption is that people are expected to consume data through Web services. It's great that SQLite supports WinRT, though. That definitely fills a big need.
Pick up a few books like Liar's Poker, When Genius Failed, and Barbarians at the Gate. That'll give you an engaging intro. Then you can start reading sites like FT, seekingalpha, Bloomberg, etc.

A few pieces of advice: under no circumstances do you want to get caught in the weeds of technical analysis, similarly stay away from the gold bugs, and finally learning is good, but don't jump in unless you are prepared to lose your shirt.
The article implies that if you just let anybody infringe on your copyright and play/use your work however they feel, it'll pay off in the long run because you gain exposure.

Seems like a _reasonable_ assumption, but I don't really think that PSY is a good example. They mention he's been hired to do ads for Samsung, etc, but is that really a feasible endgame for the majority of artists? Quite apart from the fact that 0.00001% are going to ever be _asked_ to appear in commercials, how many would actually want to? Not exactly a shining example of artistic integrity, is it?

I feel like they're kind of clutching at straws here, probably because articles like this are so popular with readers - have a browse through the comments to see how much everybody enjoys sticking the boot into the record companies.

Anyway, good for him. It's nice to hear that there are other ways to be successful, I suppose.
As the text for the question is limited in characters, I'm continuing in the comments :)

My take would be
external - Your day to day programming (may be on the job), interaction with teams, contributing to open source applications

internal - Working on your basics, learning and reviewing your technical knowledge ( like brushing up on algorithms, computer architecture, etc)

But I believe I'm missing something subtle here. What would your take be on that?

I'm currently trying to learn machine learning from the basics (ie stats, probability, linear algebra etc) and I'm quite interested to learn better ways to sharpen my skill.
Also the simulation doesn't really even have to involve particles. Stephen Wolfram did some interesting writing on concept of our reality / laws of physics emerging from simple computational systems like cellular automaton [0]. Also Eliezer had some interesting points about how a continous interpretation of causal networks gives rise to some concepts we recognize from physics, like space, time and the speed of light binding them together [1].

[0] - http://www.wolframscience.com/nksonline/toc.html

[1] - http://lesswrong.com/lw/fok/causal_universes/
As megaupload shows, it doesn't even matter if you are protected from DMCA safe harbor. If a prosecutor thinks you are not, they will destroy your business without recourse.
> seems far more likely that the content is mostly uploaded by paid staff.

That's true, but the paid staff is on the end of the content producers in exchange for having their advertisement placed next to the videos.

Also, Manwin actually charges content producers a 'content rate' in order to use their tube-sites for traffic generation. In the beginning, most tubes had unauthorized full videos which would draw in a user base, but were succeptible to DMCA take down. Now with their premier place in the marktplace, Manwin seeds their tubes with either their own content or requires content partners to produce 1 full video per X weeks in order to remain a featured partner.

As for clips... those are freebies given out to affiliates, I have a hard time believing that everyone doesn't use bots to upload that to the Tube-sites.
True, I wasn't sure how DMCA would work with Tube sites since they were awfully heavy handed back in the day when tracking down unlicensed content. -- I've been out for too long, it's all behind me these days. It was fun, met some nice, really smart guys.
BMW is a for-profit business. MIT is a non-profit educational institution.

I'll agree that copyright in the digital era is a mess, but the line in this case is fairly clear. Yes, fair use (regarding parodies/satires) is convoluted, but the general rule makes intuitive sense to me: unless your parody is blatantly for-profit/self-advancement, you're covered.
"We are in a liminal period where copyright is sometimes enforced, and sometimes not. Social pressure and business inertia causes some people to play by the rules. Risk taking, greed, and ignorance causes other people to not do so. Where this ends up is anyone's guess, but it isn't likely to stay this way for long."

It's more nuanced than that - modern copyright is not doing what it was supposed to do (http://zacharyalberico.com/post/16427595132/no-infringement-...).
This isn't anything new.

Apple has enforced this same restriction on numerous app developers and companies before. The only reason for this being "bigger news" is the pre-existing rivalry between Apple and Microsoft, or more likely because of Microsoft's PR team.
Thanks for that Brett

I'd still prefer a service like Filepicker over running my own service.

However would of been good to see a blog or twitter update on these issues.... I might of missed something, but so far not able to see anything of the sort?

Does Filepicker have a Status page? Like Herokus? Cannot see anything on your homepage.

Everyone expects outages and such. But seeing the acknowledgement and plans for improvement helps!

(Congrats on the service... I'm still choosing you guys!)
The market does not "reward" you for taking "risk" in that sense. You got lucky. Portfolio theory does suggest some risk premium on undiversifiable assets but not that.
Leverage isn't scary. Look at the site you're on - the entire startup culture is based on leverage.

Leverage is a way to increase both the risk and reward. It only increases volatility, not absolute ratios.
You could, you just choose not to pay Apple.
The affordable, wide-spread availability technology is not a negative indicator of technological progress. iPhones are less than 5 years old; it's a positive that they've distributed so rapidly.
The modern smartphone is a 5 year old product. The fact that it's managed to penetrate into the developing world in such a short amount of time is nothing less than amazing. This has absolutely nothing to do with stagnation.
Very true, but don't also forget to deduct the cost of renting liveable accommodation from your mortgage costs. Otherwise your comparing the cost of living in a house to the cost of living in a cardboard box.
Argh! So annoying to see a whole new crop of devices launching with 2.x. Is 4.x that much more resource intensive or what?
Volatility, when it comes to large numbers with dollar signs next to them, is scary.

Startup culture is not leverage in the sense I am using here. Startup founders are generally leveraged on the upside but not on the down. They own calls.

If you don't believe me consider that sometimes the powerball jackpot every few years has a positive expected return. Unless you are going to live forever, you need to be mindful of volatility.
If you allow people to get around the in-app purchase they will and the whole platform will suffer.
In terms of risk, I think its far less likely that a prosecutor will go after an adult site than say a music sharing site.

The adult market has no one with the clout of the RIAA to lobby congress.
Lace card attempt failed
When women basket weavers in rural Peru had access to SMS, they were able to cut out the middleman to sell their products. They got better prices and was able to communicate directly with the people that would sell their products.

Now imagine a smartphone, access to vast knowledge. So many more possibilities than a feature/SMS phone.
No. I write in chunks, when the juices are flowing I can bride a lot of characters and events together. I have droughts too when life and relationships take over. Either way, I am 22 now, I want to finish it before 30. Sci-fi is really growing to be a bigger and bigger part of global culture.
You have missed the core issue.

The problem is this. There is online content. The app is one way of accessing that content. Apple wants a 30% cut of everything you make on that online content EVEN THOUGH the user may be primarily accessing that content on another device.

My suggested compromise is this. Any purchase made through the app, Apple should take its 30% cut on. If you've gone through the effort of accessing that content and purchasing it another way, Apple should not be taking a 30% cut.
No it can't. The simulation hypothesis will never be testable. All our assumptions about the hypothetical computers our universe runs on are based on things as they are in this universe. We have no basis at all for applying these assumptions to the host universe. We don't know if the simulation runs on a discrete computer, a finite computer, or whether it resembles a Turing machine in any way. We don't know what kind of physical limits there are on computation, or to what extent those are even recognizable concepts, and that's just a few highlights. We have no idea what it might be like up there, or what can be done.

And don't tell me about "likely", you have no data worth mentioning, in particular about "likely" physics or "likely" motivations of simulators.
Those businesses are mostly middle-men businesses that are already offered by Apple (disk space, books, music, movies, apps, etc).
Why Do TV Writers Hate Entrepreneurs?
I think the problem is in how the question is framed. The App Store has always been revenue neutral [1]. It's not a profit center for Apple. It's not about "getting their cut". It's about having one billing statement to look at. It's about eliminating shady billing tactics a la gym memberships. It's about keeping your address out of some developer's mailing list.

You'd be surprised about the extent of this problem. I get e-mails all the time from people who are worried that they have a monthly payment for my app, for example. There are just an awful lot of people who don't "get" software at all and derive real value from simplified one-party billing.

So if you start from the premise that billing for iOS apps has to be brain-dead simple, we arrive at the present rule: any payment that looks like it happens on an iPhone must [2] run through IAP at whatever rate Apple can break even. If your payment collection process consists of people using their fingers on the screen of an iPhone, then it is potentially confusable with IAP by Grandpa and he might get mad at Apple; this is unacceptable. But monetizing your pizza ordering app by handing money to a pizza delivery guy who shows up at your house is not confusable, so it's A-OK.

Now, it's perfectly debatable whether or not consumer confusion is really that big of a problem, or a problem big enough to justify the negative externalities of solving it. But if it is, then the result follows: the solution is to run all the billing through a break-even single party. If you accept the premise, then the rule that is fairest and best and also solves the problem is the rule that we already have.

It's unfortunate that we live in a world where the economics of Dropbox, Skydrive, Amazon et al seemingly don't allow enough profit margin to pay Apple's overhead to process payments. But I'm not really sure who is to blame for that: the consumers, for being confused about billing; Apple, for trying to fix it for them; Skydrive etc. for not creating a two-tiered pricing structure to charge IAP customers at 30% more; or consumers again for being unwilling to pay an extra 30% for single-party billing.

[1] http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/article/apple_app_store_runs_...
[2] there are some exceptions, I'm speaking broadly to make a point
Aria Templates - JavaScript Framework For Rich & Large-Scale Enterprise Web Apps
I would say they are among the most important skills a programmer could have - the amount of time I have saved by being able to do fast manipulation with chains of things like sort, tr, sed, awk, head, tail, paste, strings, nm, hexdump, xargs, etc. and get diagnostic information for deeper issues

it's like anything else; each tool is just a building block. the number of creative things you can do with very little effort by piping the output of one to the input of another is incredibly powerful. it's not always computationally efficient, but many times that doesn't matter.

Python is another great tool, but sometimes a machete is quicker and easier. Different tools for different situations.
Of the Android devices that have access the Google Play store in the last 14 days, Google reports that 10% are running Froyo and another 4% are running a version older than Froyo. However, I imagine the number of Froyo devices is even higher if you include crappy devices that do not use Google's Play store.

https://developer.android.com/about/dashboards/index.html
If you are "naturally" short housing because you need it, can't you could make the same case for all hard commodities and stocks in companies that produce all your future consumption needs?
"If house prices rise, the value of your house (the hedge) increases but so does the cost of shelter."

What about the ability to rent? As demand for purchasing housing goes up, demand for renting typically goes down (ie. either levels off or regresses). Sure over time both go up, but at a particular slice of time, usually on a cost of living basis one is advantageous over the other. And while you're renting at a cheaper cost than it would be to essentially rent money (let's not kid ourselves, you don't own a house if you have a mortgage), you have liquidity to place in other investment vehicles.

Small observation... maybe there's something to it, maybe not, but it seems I'm 2/2 on calling when market swings happen here in downtown San Diego over the past 10 years. Take a look at the delta in rental prices in properties in various classes and compare verses actual selling prices. Just like a P/E for a company, if you can't at least turn a profit on owning a piece of property as a rental, it is likely overpriced. As much as people love to talk about various market factors much of this is emotionally driven.

For instance, last year I observed an entry level condo complex in a marginal area rent 1 beds in the $1800-1900 range. The latest comps for that building were $150k for like properties. About 5 blocks away 1 beds in a luxury high-rise were renting in the $2200-2300 area. Comps? High $300k. At the height of the market comps for the luxury high-rise were in the mid $500k area and the marginal property were in the upper $300k area. Back when that was happening, the luxury high-rise unit was renting just shy of $2k. The marginal unit? About $1400. I took another 4-5 other buildings in the area of varying quality and this trend was intact. To be fair this is a small, insular market and these swings are largely driven by speculation from the bubble-tastic situation many overheated markets found themselves in (ie. people owning and flipping multiple properties found the bottom of the market being rented cheaply).
Are you the guy behind Smutnode.com and PornProx.com?
Is the Economy Creating a Lost Generation?