> "Sometime during Wilen's questioning the police announced to Ardin and Wilen that Assange was to be arrested and questioned about possible rape and molestation." This was the initial questioning by local authorities. So unless every police station in every part of Sweden had been told to get Assange no matter what at any opportunity it's unlikely this was some conspiracy. Perhaps the local police station over reacted - but no conspiracy

I mostly agree with your conclusion, but keep in mind that Wilen and Ardin went to a specific police station out of their way where they knew someone. So if there was a conspiracy that involved them, then that would be the likely means - a co-conspirator at this specific police station. That said, I think it's more likely they were "just" trying to cause inconveniences for Assange based on Ardin's infamous "revenge" blog post (commentary on using vague statements to the police to trigger an investigation as a means of "legal revenge")

> - "Within 24 hours, a more senior prosecutor dismissed the rape allegations, leaving only the lesser accusation of molestation. Assange willingly went to the police on August 30th and made a statement." Ok so the further up the chain it goes the initial charge is reduced. If there was a conspiracy at this point wouldn't it work the other way?

You miss the point afterwards where the prosecutor changed.

The senior prosecutor that dismissed most of the allegations is NOT Marianne Ny - the current prosecutor. Marianne Ny took the extremely unusual step of stepping in to take over the case after this other senior prosecutor had all but closed it after finding that no crime had occurred.

So indeed, if there is a conspiracy, the conspirators stepped in at this point, and the very fact a prosecutor stepped in like this is strange. It is not a common occurrence, and certainly not to have a prosecutor so publicly pretty much totally reversing the decision of another.

> "On September 15th, the prosecutor told Assange he was permitted to leave Sweden." More than two weeks after the initial report he's still allowed to leave Sweden. Surely if the US government wanted to use this case to trump up charges and have him arrested and deported via a proxy state (as is so often stated) wouldn't they have gotten the ball rolling within those two weeks?

Personally I think it is more likely that this is Marianne Ny and the advocate for the alleged victims deciding they have a chance of trying to push for even stricter interpretations of Swedish rape law. They are both known to be extremely radical in their opinions on the subject, and that fits better with both of them swooping in.

IF the US wants to use this as an opportunity, I believe it would be just that: An opportunity that might open up. That the whole case is a premeditated conspiracy does seem like far too big a stretch.

But if they want to get hold of him, Sweden is a convenient place to have him holed up, as the CIA has repeatedly shown they are willing to risk diplomatic incidents with Sweden (and/or obtain assistance from Swedish authorities).

> if he's in Sweden, there's a less robust extradition relationship than there is between the US and the UK

That's just pure comedy gold. There are several high profile extradition cases between the US and UK that have gone on for years. E.g. McKinnon who is still in the UK 10 years after his initial arrest. Meanwhile, Sweden tends to rubberstamp extraditions, and Swedish police have handed people over to CIA goons without due process. If I was at risk of extradition to the US, I'd much rather be in the UK than Sweden.

> If this is a conspiracy to get Assange then it's a pretty poorly orchestrated one at this stage.

I agree. It is probably not a conspiracy, at least not to extradite him. Though of course it is working wonderfully if it is an intentional attempt to ruin his credibility.

But assuming it's not, that doesn't mean it might not be convenient, and it also doesn't mean that there's not reason to believe that there's politics involved in this case, though I'd be more inclined to believe that would be due to Marianne Ny (the prosecutor).