skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Daniel Kokotajlo released the (excellent) 2021 forecast. He was then hired by OpenAI, and not at liberty to speak freely, until he quit in 2024. He's part of the team making this forecast.

The others include:

Eli Lifland, a superforecaster who is ranked first on RAND’s Forecasting initiative. You can read more about him and his forecasting team here. He cofounded and advises AI Digest and co-created TextAttack, an adversarial attack framework for language models.

Jonas Vollmer, a VC at Macroscopic Ventures, which has done its own, more practical form of successful AI forecasting: they made an early stage investment in Anthropic, now worth $60 billion.

Thomas Larsen, the former executive director of the Center for AI Policy, a group which advises policymakers on both sides of the aisle.

Romeo Dean, a leader of Harvard’s AI Safety Student Team and budding expert in AI hardware.

And finally, Scott Alexander himself.
curious where you moved?

I completely understand it could not have what we're looking for, which is why this was only one component among larger ones (family + new job)
..The first person listed is ex-OpenAI.
I've never had an insurance company ask about the color of a car...
What kind of conditional compilation are you missing?
What the hell was MSN messenger plaintext over unencrypted transport? I'm genuinely shocked, I didn't know! I naively assumed it was at least encrypted to Microsoft. But now that you say it, it makes sense...

Also feels like missed opportunities :D.
The tone of discourse on HN has gotten quite negative lately. It can be possible for Trump to believe that what he's doing is good even if what he's doing proves bad. He seems sincere in thinking that yesterday's tariffs will do good for the U.S. Who knows, tariffs might yet do good (or not), and Democrats used to advocate roughly the same thing:

- Bernie, 2008: https://x.com/mazemoore/status/1907883583228051964
- Nancy Pelosi, 1996: https://x.com/ThomasSowell/status/1907875133638705646
- Roger Moore's films

Clearly they changed their minds. It would be interesting to see why they changed their minds.
> now you've heard of random Canadians and Europeans getting deported or declined entry in the US for random reasons, including one who wrote stuff against Trump

This doesn't happen because people are using gmail. It happens when people post things on social media or get searched at border crossings.
CSS-Only Glitch Effect
This tool is pretty sweet in little bash scripts combo'd up with gnu parallel on red team engagements for mapping https endpoints within whatever scoped address ranges that will only respond to either proper browsers due to whatever, or with the SNI stuff in order. Been finding it super sweet for that. Can do all the normal curl switches like -H for header spoofing
Normally (well, if you're ethical) credit is given.

Also, there are IP limits of various sorts (e.g. copyright, trademark) for various purposes (some arguably good, some arguably bad), and some freedoms (e.g., fair use). There's no issue if this follows the rules... but I don't see where that's implemented here.

It looks like they may be selling IP they don't own the right to.
yep, this post is full of this post-rationalization, for example. it's pretty breathtaking
I remember those days (and your username) very fondly. Great to see you still here.

We were the first startup to be Australian-based then move to the U.S. for YC.

Omnisio was an all-Australian team from the year before us but they were already residing in the U.S.

The first ever Australian-originated co-founder of a YC-backed company was Jamie Cameron. He co-founded Virtualmin, a commercially-supported fork of Webmin for virtual hosting, which Jamie first released in 1997. It looks like Virtualmin is still active today, which is awesome.

It just so happens that Jamie and Fenn used to sit next to each other in the software development team at Pacific Internet in Melbourne, where we all worked in the early 00s. Jamie's brother, Michael Cameron, was a co-founder of Rome2Rio, which was based at Inspire9 along with us from about 2011-12, and became one of the most successful consumer travel startups out of Australia.
If you mean they're not yet state controlled mouthpieces of a conservative dictator, sure, I guess that counts as left leaning?

I see a lot of shock and gossip.

And a LOT of reporting about how the dictator is pissing off his rich enablers.

I guess if you consider the left and the right to both be bootlickers of the oligarchs we're both right.

I don't see a lot of content that supports your thesis I guess.
32% again now.
Because it's not clear that that's what you want. What's the context? Are we playing a game where I guess a character? Is it a design session for a new character based on a well known one, maybe a sidekick? Is it a new take on an old character? Are you just trying to remember what a well-known character looks like, and giving a brief prompt?

It's not clear what the asker wants, and the obvious answer is probably the culturally relevant one. Hell, I'd give you the same answers as the AI did here if I had the ability to spit out perfect replicas.
There are millions of voters who voted for Biden in 2020 and either sat out or voted for Trump in 2024.

Not everybody is part of the cult. Many people simply thought Trump would take the economy and prices back to 2019. If he doesn’t, he’ll be punished.
<insert line of nodding emojis here>
Yeah, I think best way is to look at the total tariffs collected by the EU on US goods - about $3.3b USD in 2023 - compared to imports ~$370b USD in 2023. So like, 1%.
This varies a lot per country. I know Germany is a lot more hierarchical, for example. They care about titles there. Here we don't.
>The US outsourced to China because of cheap labor

Yeah, in 2003. The US offshores to Bangladesh or vietnam for cheap labor now and has for a long time.

Manufacturing is offshored to China simply because it cant be done in the US at anything resembling a reasonable cost, not because labor is cheaper. That is because the Chinese industrial ecosystem is unparalleled.

>China is a centrally planned economy. To argue it's more competitive than the US is again not tenable.

The economic dogma of the late 90s is getting a little long in the tooth now. Not least because it was completely blindsided by the rise of China.

It turned out that the most effectively run economies were a hybrid of distributed and centrally planned (China has open internal markets while credit allocation is largely centrally planned).
They were not. Trump is doing exactly what they wanted. They just wanted others to be hurt.
Board of directors
Don't confuse innovation with optimisation.
I'd imagine consumer hardware is the same.

For example, every Thunderbolt dock's internals are basically the same, while the outer shell tries to be as different as possible.
It's not wild to speculate that a ticket I buy for an event 600 years in the future might not be honored. People get screwed over on pre-orders with timetables far smaller than that.

Again, if they sell something they're calling a ticket to the final part of the performance, then they have a financial duty to keep the project going (or refund the ticket) and it's not "their business" to end the project early like the person I replied to was claiming. At the very best, they could invest the money and use only the interest to support ongoing operations, but they need to keep the original value available to refund or else they need to fulfill what the ticket's for-- if they do neither of those things, they ripped people off, period.

If they're just funding the project's continuation, it's on them for pulling the marketing stunt (and/or false advertising) of calling it a ticket for this event in 600 years instead of just taking donations, selling present-day tickets and/or merch, etc. Fine print saying "actually, this ticket isn't a real ticket, it's just for fun" doesn't make them look better to me, so I don't see how that'd be a defense in your mind.
I'm not seeing the prescience here - I don't wanna go through the specific points but the main gist here seems to be that chatbots will become very good at pretending to be human and influencing people to their own ends.

I don't think much has happened on these fronts (owning to a lack of interest, not technical difficulty). AI boyfriends/roleplaying etc. seems to have stayed a very niche interest, with models improving very little over GPT3.5, and the actual products are seemingly absent.

It's very much the product of the culture war era, where one of the scary scenarios show off, is a chatbot riling up a set of internet commenters and goarding them lashing out against modern leftist orthodoxy, and then cancelling them.

With all thestrongholds of leftist orthodoxy falling into Trump's hands overnight, this view of the internet seems outdated.

Troll chatbots still are a minor weapon in information warfare/ The 'opinion bubbles' and manipulation of trending topics on social media (with the most influential content still written by humans), to change the perception of what's the popular concensus still seem to hold up as primary tools of influence.

Nowadays, when most people are concerned about stuff like 'will the US go into a shooting war against NATO' or 'will they manage to crash the global economy', just to name a few of the dozen immediately pressing global issues, I think people are worried about different stuff nowadays.

At the same time, there's very little mention of 'AI will take our jobs and make us poor' in both the intellectual and physical realms, something that's driving most people's anxiety around AI nowadays.

It also puts the 'superintelligent unaligned AI will kill us all' argument very often presented by alignment people as a primary threat rather than the more plausible 'people controlling AI are the real danger'.
Ocean dumping or climate solution? Growing industry captures carbon in the ocean
> Will people finally wake up that the AGI X-Risk people have been right and we’re rapidly approaching a really fucking big deal?

OK, say I totally believe this. What, pray tell, are we supposed to do about it?

Don't you at least see the irony of quoting Sama's dire warnings about the development of AI, without at least mentioning that he is at the absolute forefront of the push to build this technology that can destroy all of humanity. It's like he's saying "This potion can destroy all of humanity if we make it" as he works faster and faster to figure out how to make it.

I mean, I get it, "if we don't build it, someone else will", but all of the discussion around "alignment" seems just blatantly laughable to me. If on one hand your goal is to build "super intelligence", i.e. way smarter than any human or group of humans, how do you expect to control that super intelligence when you're just acting at the middling level of human intelligence?

While I'm skeptical on the timeline, if we do ever end up building super intelligence, the idea that we can control it is a pipe dream. We may not be toast (I mean, we're smarter than dogs, and we keep them around), but we won't be in control.

So if you truly believe super intelligent AI is coming, you may as well enjoy the view now, because there ain't nothing you or anyone else will be able to do to "save humanity" if or when it arrives.
> How much all the imports are realistically going to be made in the US?

For some of the hardest hit locations, very little. The US would have to invade and claim other countries to start producing, for instance, vanilla or coffee (the US essentially doesn't produce vanilla, and for coffee we grow less than a percent of what we consume). But Madagascar got hit with 47% tariffs.
You may be Ok with it and in your view is you a little quirky trait of your personality, but for humanity is a survivability matter, the subcontext of this issue is planned obsolesce, and all the resources we are continuously extracting and the damage is doing to the planet, in this context I mean specifically the trend of getting a new laptop or a new phone every two years or so.
All I know about this issue is what you wrote above, but it sounds to me like the US taxpayer is paying interest on bonds so that bond holders can earn interest.

I think its perfectly reasonable for the taxpayer to say they would rather not pay interest on those loans. The bond holder could lend the money somebody else instead.

In fact, I think its really unfair that one generation of people can leave debt behind for future generations to pay with higher taxes.
We can only cross our fingers and hope that the rise of unblockable cheats annihilates the market for the subgenre of competitive online games that team you up with randos and/or pit you against randos. What a cesspit.
At 14" doesn't 4K just seen like crazy overkill ? Sure on a laptop your face might be closer to the screen - but that's a lot of pixels in a small form factor. I'm still rocking 1440P 27" monitors for my desktop and find those good enough (although at that size you can see a benefit from 4K for sure).
This is the kind of thing I don't want to have to think about as a programmer. The compiler should just make it work.
If the manufacturer wanted to conduct a supply chain attack on you, they wouldn't need secure boot to do it. They could just design an implant of their own using proprietary technology.

So why does the presence of secure boot as a user-controlled feature affect that risk calculation?
solos doesn't solve cheating, but it removes the team dynamics and social meta games that team modes bring. like wondering whether your teammates are cheating, or failing to compete because you can't find a good team.

obviously cheating is cool. we all love to code, to build, and to hack. there should be a place to cheat, even in pvp games.

there should be a league with open cheating. cheaters need a place to game too!

there should be a league with moderate anticheat, like what you see in games today. it kind of works, and stops all but the most motivated cheaters.

there should be a league where cheating is impossible. where one doesn't have to doubt, ever, whether they died to a cheater or a god. this is where kernel level anticheat is not enough, and solos only should be required.

cheating is about validating inputs and outputs. valid screen displaying into human eyes. valid output out of human hands to mouse and keyboard.

if we take a step back, this is very achievable. it's not like doping in the olympics, we don't need bloodwork. we just need a little more information than we get from anticheats today.
Location: Dubai, UAE (EU citizen)

Remote: Yes

Willing to relocate: Yes

Technologies: Penetration testing, Reverse engineering, Python, C, Assembler, Low-level development, Emulation, Embedded, Electronics, Linux/Unix/BSD/Windows

GitHub: https://github.com/chris-pcguy

Email: chris.jobshn2504@broke-the-inter.net

Hi,

Preferred positions: Penetration tester > Reverse engineer > Embedded > Software developer

I would be glad to hear from you.
Looks like he has a few more problems.

https://tech.slashdot.org/story/25/04/03/0230255/vibe-coded-...
And then someone would pay their drug supplier 60M for a monkey NFT
The problem is they don't think it's nonsense. They really believe this will pay down the deficit, bring jobs back to the US, make it great again.

They see it as closing loopholes - "rebadging made in China as made in Vietnam, Thailand, Japan? Nice try, Trump's smarter than that!"
I would 100% be allowed to draw an image of Indiana Jones in illustrator. There is no law against me drawing his likeness.
There seemed to be so many that weren't blocked, which is curious.
Sophos Active Adversary Report
Thanks! Prophet Town's 2nd-in-command (Ian) is helping me comb responses and he's out camping through Saturday; we're going to start going through responses this weekend.
Many of these look like apes, not monkeys.
Recent discussion https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43553031
Identity theft is the greatest con merchants ever pulled on the public. Turning the responsibility around from "A merchant got scammed because their KYC policy was too thin, because they make more money if they do more business with fewer verifications (until someone comes along and cheats them)" to "when they do get scammed, maybe it can be the fault of the person who was impersonated instead of the scammer" was some brilliant sleight-of-hand.

It isn't your responsibility if a bank you've never set foot in gave a bunch of money to someone who isn't you and said they were you... And it never should have been. The moment companies started trying to put that into credit ratings, they should have been barred for discriminatory practices against the unlucky.
this is far too broad of a generalization. just like it would be too broad of a generalization to declare all conservatives to be maga.

if we’re to believe trump he declares people to be “extreme leftists” who are clearly not even leftists.

so i find it highly unlikely that the entirety of “the left” called every republican presidential candidate these things.
I am the same, self-hosting for many years and while I have the occasional question about it, it's easily corrected. I now have a short .com domain I use because my .fyi one was even more confusing to people, and simply didn't work with some systems I needed to use.

A bigger problem in my opinion is just how heavily people have associated "Google" with "the internet" and "Gmail" with all email in existence. They don't even think about outlook.com or even hotmail anymore. All email is Gmail to many people.
>This forum has been so behind for too long.

There is a strong financial incentive for a lot of people on this site to deny they are at risk from it, or to deny what they are building has risk and they should have culpability from that.
What motivates such a rude answer? The parent is genuinely exposing a personal question. Nothing in his post suggests that he would go gentrify a low COL place.
> everything will operate as if you never had worked there.

Well, they wrecked my app after I left. It was blazingly fast, and we has a very fast moving team. Now the team and the app are slow. (I don't even work there yet and I already know why it's slow, and I don't think it will be very hard to fix.)
It's fascinating how this discussion about intelligence bumps up against the limits of text itself. We're here, reasoning and reflecting on what makes us capable of this conversation. Yet, the very structure of our arguments, the way we question definitions or assert self-awareness, mirrors patterns that LLMs are becoming increasingly adept at replicating. How confidently can we, reading these words onscreen, distinguish genuine introspection from a sophisticated echo?

Case in point… I didn't write that paragraph by myself.
I think there's class warfare practically baked in with how paying for college works today. Imagine trying to determine how much a fancy car costs, and being told "it depends on how much money you have". That's on the upper-middle-class side.

The other side is just part of the worldview of the rampant anti-intellectualism which Trump rode to power.
No, you aren't allowed to monetize an image of Indiana Jones even if you made it yourself.
It's only one of the key levers of power of the USA. No biggie. You give people money represented by paper but mostly bits/bytes in exchange for other peoples materials and labor. Can you unpack what kind of stuff you're talking about? Are we talking about nascent industries? This stuff, who are you going to sell it to ?
But that doesn't make food 35% more expensive.
As of iOS 18.4, macOS 15.4, Details/Summary HTML tags can be styled with CSS.

Which might be an approach for the first few examples.

I am sure there are other cases that would need anchors.
The premise might possibly be true, but as an actually seasoned Python developer, I've taken a look at one file: https://github.com/dx-tooling/platform-problem-monitoring-co...

All of it smells of a (lousy) junior software engineer: from configuring root logger at the top, module level (which relies on module import caching not to be reapplied), over not using a stdlib config file parser and building one themselves, to a raciness in load_json where it's checked for file existence with an if and then carrying on as if the file is certainly there...

In a nutshell, if the rest of it is like this, it simply sucks.
Well, gmail does that already. It's $7/mo.

https://workspace.google.com/solutions/business-email/
> There are a few olive trees in my neighborhood. I should plant some too.

They are nice trees, but beware you won't be eating the olives unless you put a lot of work in. They have to be de-bittered or "cured", which is done by soaking them in things like caustic soda. https://anrcatalog.ucanr.edu/pdf/8267.pdf

So if you are after a nice compact tree that doesn't need a lot of water, then an olive tree is a good choice. But if you want a garden of Eden fruit tree, there are much better choices.
Very good concrete examples. AI is moving very fast so it can become overwhelming, but what has held true is focusing on writing thorough prompts to get the results you want.

Senior developers have the experience to think through and plan out a new application for an AI to write. Unfortunately a lot of us are bogged down by working our day jobs, but we need to dedicate time to create our own apps with AI.

Building a personal brand is never more important, so I envision a future where dev's have a personal website with thumbnail links (like a fancy youtube thumbnail) to all the small apps they have built. Dozens of them, maybe hundreds, all with beautiful or modern UIs. The prompt they used can be the new form of blog articles. At least that's what I plan to do.
An MBA is a professional graduate degree, like a JD or MD. Criticizing professional degree programs for lack of humanities coursework rather misses the point. Students are supposed to have got that in undergraduate.
Today I finally caved in and tried the ghibli style transfer in chatgpt. I gave it a photo of my daughter and said the thing (prompt shared about). It said it couldn't due to copyright issues. Fine. I removed ghibli from the prompt and replaced it with a well-known japanese studio where Hayao Miyazaki works. Still nothing, copyright reasons my fellow human. I thought they finally turned it off due to the pressure, but then something caught my eye. My daughter, on the image, had a t-shirt with Mickey Mouse on it! I used the original prompt with ghibli in it and added to "paint a unicorn on the t-shirt instead to avoid copyright issues". It worked.

tl;dr;
Try the disney boss and see what happens!
I have an even more foolproof system. Never play online competitive games.
This anecdotal, but I feel like YouTube applies a positive sentiment filter to its all of its comments. Somehow on most videos I watch never see anything critical at the top of the comment section.
reserving moral judgment and specifically explaining why gpt4o cant do spiderman and harry potter but can do ghibli: i havent seen anyone point it out but japan has pretty ai friendly laws

https://petapixel.com/2023/06/05/japan-declares-ai-training-...
Bravo, been looking forward to this but AnimeJs v3 has just been so solid for so long honestly you did amazing on v3 that v4 is just icing on top; excited to try this out on my next project.

async/await + animation (ie- with AnimeJS) is highly underrated.

And mad props for skipping the now dying trend of refactoring entire codebase to TypeScript :)
Huge difference is you cannot scale a single human a billion times to industrialize his knowledge.
I'm pretty sure the person you are replying to is talking about single player games.
TBH, this kind of reads like the pedigrees of the former members of the OpenAI board. When the thing blew up, and people started to apply real scrutiny, it turned out that about half of them had no real experience in pretty much anything at all, except founding Foundations and instituting Institutes.

A lot of people (like the Effective Altruism cult) seem to have made a career out of selling their Sci-Fi content as policy advice.