skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
No model is perfect, but some are useful. Their "baseline LTV" looks at the sum of listings on their platform (plus other features), then tries to forecast the next 365 days — so this should indirectly capture people coming and going. I think their cannibalization model is quite clever as well.

Going deeper with modeling users might yield some tighter estimates, but I imagine this gets estimates far closer than some simple accounting formula, and likely helpful for budgeting a year out — but it would have been nice to have seen some performance metrics.
U.S. Peace Corps says DOGE has arrived at its HQ
DOGE's AI Push at the Department of Veterans Affairs
> which mathematically is suboptimal, and has been recognized as such by nearly every economist since David Ricardo.

That requires some initial assumptions that simply aren't true. Tariffs can and do serve a vital role to protect a country from one with lower standards of living (eg taken to an extreme, consider trade between county A where slavery is illegal and country B where it isn't)
The steelman here is: it is better for a country to have a diverse manufacturing base and a net positive balance of trade. The only way to get manufacturing happening here is to make it more profitable to manufacture here than elsewhere. The only way to do that is to make sure everyone else’s cheap stuff is much more expensive, thereby creating a possible profit margin for local manufacturing. This medicine will be hard at first. But it will create a resilient economy where foreign wealth comes in (buying our goods) and national wealth stays home (purchasing locally made goods).

You didn’t ask for counter arguments but I’m sure we will see a wide range below this comment.

A broader picture here is to say neoliberal globalization is bad in that it removes local autonomy by creating a need for peaceful trading partners. Who is it bad for, and what sort of world would be good for those people is an exercise left to the reader.

EDIT: I like the vigorous comments and zero net score on this comment. don't blame the messenger guys, this is a fair statement of the steelman. It does not represent my own views.
Oh I sold them before the market was closed. I’m just looking for something to distract myself while “line go down” on my 401k.
He also says he wants to bring back well-paid American jobs, and promises prosperity. The problem is that we've allowed a remarkable portion of the population to become so despondent and dismissive of con artistry that they're willing to write anything they don't like off as bluster and believe only the parts convenient to them at the moment. Simultaneously this group lacks the ability to perform the analysis necessary to make predictions about what parts he actually means.

A normalization of dishonesty and an unsatisfactory status quo, with only one person offering anything that sounds like change.
Why Trump's Tariffs Are Rattling Even Meta
What about the fact of Democrats having ZERO POWER in the legislature did you not understand? The Republicans have taken over America lock, stock, and barrel. Legally, there's nothing that can be done to stop them until 2026. By then it won't matter. It already doesn't matter. America is already finished. It's over.
Trump is doing exactly the craziest versions of the stuff he promised to do, without guardrails and 'adults in the room' of his first admin.

Maybe its for the best so people are finally rid of this madness.
Title is: github-mcp-server is now available in public preview
Something like 60% of consumer spending is by the top 5% of income earners.

This is actually a tax on the rich. And they won't care about higher prices.
Klarna pauses US IPO plans as tariffs roil markets, sources say
You missed the really brilliant part: using tariffs to force unskilled and low-skilled jobs back onshore while simultaneously mass-deporting most of the unskilled labour force.
Oh come on. Not really no. He is purely looking out for one person: himself.

Why would a large commercial real estate investor who's been losing money hand over fist since COVID want to massively lower interest rates and through stocks tanking gain incredible leverage versus companies that rent his properties? It is purely his own personal advantage.

As per usual.
The Democrats blew it by being unresponsive to their voters' material demands and instead doubling down on hollow NGO speak. They preferred to run issue-free "vibes" campaigns.

The same business-industrial class captures them as the Republicans. Neither party is genuinely going to organize around class or material needs.

The real threat to America or Americans isn't a single man. It's the superstructure that enabled him.

In other words: "Wer hat uns verraten? The Democratic Party."
Yup, At top level play, players know the games and the maps so much that they can get some kills through walls just from knowing that its is likely that an opponent WOULD be at the other side at second X after seeing/hearing them at second Y.
I hope people start taking Trump seriously now when he's talking about impeaching judges, critical media being illegal, running for a third term and taking over sovereign nations.
That's pretty refreshing compared to the average 400 external "partners" your average online t-shirt store has.
Anduril, as I recall, staunchly supports the current administration, which is vehemently anti-trans. (Also, Trump has nominated an Anduril executive to the role of Army Under Secretary in his administration.) If NixOS has prominent trans developers, that might be one reason to do it.
Only within the table of 20 largest point drops. Neither even makes the table of 20 largest percentage drops (which is above).
You are just repeating the same old story, that was pushed by Waimar and Nazi propaganda, that has long been overturned by modern scholarship.

Germans didn't love authoritarianism. Well over half the population voted Communist, Social democrat or with the center party. And usually far more, only in the middle of massive economic depression did the Nazis gain ground. Arguable the communist are 'authoritarians' but they don't think of themselves that way. And many who did vote for the Nazis weren't authoritarians either. Germany had the largest social democratic movement in the world.

The whole 'bled the country dry with reparations' is just weimar/nazi propaganda. Germany reparations were not that extreme, and specially when you compare on what reparations Germany forced on its enemies. Germany could heave paid the reparations without much issue. All the claims that poor little Germany couldn't handle it is Waimar propaganda that the Nazis continued and intensified. Somehow they can spend 20+ of GDP on building a military, but the reparations are somehow impossible.

> Nazi figures like Goebbels who was constantly broke, struggling to pay bills and ranted about financial enslavement of his people.

What if I told you that there are poor people in all nations? And people struggle in lots of place. Germany in 1920 did better then most nations on the plant. And Goebbles was likely in the Top 1 of global population. And you are literally quoting the propaganda minister, of course that is the impression he wants to give.

> The excessive treatment made them see themselves as freedom fighters. Of course, that's not what people are taught in school in Britain or France, it's an inconvenient narrative.

Except that's exactly what people are thought in school. The whole 'extreme reparations' nonsense is the standard view. Its only in the last couple decades that this was seriously questioned by economists and historians.
https://archive.ph/1xY1g
That's really neat. Cool how fractals just emerge from the feedback loops, and that really tickles something in my brain
the most likely reason is the simplest one - he is deliberately manipulating market so that his family’s companies can benefit. He did this very transparently with crypto. Now with a larger stakes.

Corruption plain and simple. Now “lobbyists” will rush in offering him favors so that he removes some restrictions
I recall that the GOP once introduced a bill requiring congressional approval for any changes to tariffs. I believe it was proposed sometime around 2015—or perhaps even earlier, around 2005. I’m not entirely sure of the exact date. What I do remember is that Democrats strongly opposed the bill at the time, as they were generally supportive of tariffs during that period.

Now, interestingly, the GOP has shifted to being largely pro-tariff—except for a few staunch free-market conservatives like Rand Paul.

Strange world …
> The main problem with development of new antibiotics is ... that there is no business case for it.

It sounds like the main problem is a for-profit healthcare system.
> What would the best possible version of this policy look like if it were smart?

It depends extremely on what your actual goals are, but if we suppose the goal is to increase US manufacturing capacity and economic independence with minimal pain, you'd enact this on a time-table over a period of years, after building enough support across the political spectrum to make it look like this policy will be essentially, if perhaps with some occasional tweaks, be maintained across administrations for some time. You'd also probably not significantly tariff the whole world, at any point.

The biggest problem with this approach is investor confidence. It's hard to sign on the dotted line to spend billions building factories when it's difficult to say with any certainty that these tariffs will still be around by the end of the year, let alone in five years. This was doomed to be way more painful than necessary when he started flip-flopping on this over the last couple months, regardless of whether it's even fundamentally any sort of a good idea.

If the goal's to replace large portions of income tax, as has been suggested by some including by Trump, uh... the math just don't work even with a drastically smaller federal government, it's nonsense, there's no "best possible" version there.
I'd be very surprised if there isn't a filesystem driver for SPI flash. Linux obviously can speak SPI and SPI flash is extremely common in a lot of applications.
Well I mean destroy and seized in a generic sense. I am wording it poorly, but Germany lost a massive amount of industrial capacity post WW1. In the treaty of Versailles, Germany had to make massive concessions.

"The treaty stripped Germany of 65,000 km2 (25,000 sq mi) of territory and 7 million people."[1]

They also specifically lost coal and iron rich areas to pay back France for destroying theirs.

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Versailles
> this immensely flexible and versatile language

I would be interested to know if anyone ever built anything non-trivial that didn't turn into a complete mess due to TCL's general type-flimsyness and "everything is a string" philosophy.
Which is to say: the market hasn't yet fully priced in the effects of the tariffs. It will continue to fall until people have accepted that the tariffs are here to stay.

After that it could level off. Or continue to fall, if there are knock-on effects that haven't yet been priced in.

(Or, I suppose, a bunch of manufacturing could spring up in the US, superior to the rest of the world, giving us whole new export markets and pushing the Dow into six figures. Let's find out!)
Like many things carried about by this administration, the charitable interpretation of the intent is harmed by the manner of implementation. Countless policies have been implemented in a rushed, haphazard, confusing, nonsensical, surprising, and inconsistent manner which makes it tough to believe they are actually well-thought-out strategic moves.
That would make it well over half of eligible voters who blew it. Those who chose incorrectly as well as those who chose no vote at all.
Very cool options here. I'm always looking for options to throw something on a spare raspberry pi and this looks like a great tool to self-host.
I think there was a notification or some kind of banner on the app. I can’t remember exactly. Sadly I also don’t remember the circumstances of the migration… if I did it, or it happened for me.

It was my work laptop, which I only have so much control over, so I’m remain fairly detached from the administration for my own sanity.
I just stayed with the app that I used for my old monthly ticket (mobil.nrw) and it allows paying with Paypal.
"use" vs. sell is the problem here. Or do you think they are the same?
The drinker in that story is the OP, coping with the barrage of bad ideas.
I mean to be fair this was the campaign promise, not like a random decision post election. He’s implementing exactly what he said he would.
That’s a pretty broad statement to make given that of the seven bestselling video game franchises of all time (Mario, Tetris, Call of Duty, Pokémon, GTA, Minecraft, and FIFA) only one (Call of Duty) is a realistic simulation, one (GTA) could be best described as a totally unrealistic simulation, one (FIFA) is a simulation of an actual game, and the rest are a mix of abstract fantasy and/or pure puzzles.
But they weren't unresponsive to the actual needs of their voters. Biden was one of the most successful presidents in US history, but in this Republican-led post-factual world facts don't matter. The blame for that rests solely on US citizens. They've allowed themselves to be lulled into the fantasy that the party will continue on and on regardless of reality. Well, the party is over.
Two things.

1. The tariffs have not yet been felt. This is all projection. Once people feel the tariffs things are going to get much worse.

2. China has already retaliated. EU will announce retaliatory tariffs next week. Trump is likely to take it as a challenge and double down.
Who else grew up playing 3-D Ultra Lionel Train Town Deluxe?

Still works on windows, still fun.
There's definitely a lot of that.

As far as I understand, however, there's not much of a path between the current tariff measures and reducing the US debt. Especially not with the tax cuts or if war with China is still in the books.
> This is actually a tax on the rich

Nope, it's a tax on everyone. Rich people will pay more of it, but non rich people will be harder hit as % of income. Same as sales tax/VAT.
I'll bite as well.

There is a difference between anti-Zionism and antisemitism. The former is condemning a land-grab because of some 2000 year old claim. The latter is hating Jews because they are Jews. There is a world of difference there.

The forefathers of everyone in Europe, with very few exceptions, occupied a different strip of land 2000 years ago and were driven out by romans, goths, huns, germans or whomever. Most pieces of land changed hands a dozen times or more. Should we now rearrange all the maps and revert to our 2000 year old original national lands and identities? Why 2000 years, why not 500, 5000 or 10000? The maps looked different in those periods as well.
It's always interesting when you see a new meme emerging from the rightwing information wormhole into the open internet. This week's must be "NGO" used as some type of slur.

Anyway, the economy was rocking under Biden, we had the largest investments in manufacturing in decades (the advanced kind, not mud production), record low unemployment, stonks going up, etc.

Inflation is pretty much the only issue that mattered, which was a global phenomenon that America navigated better than anyone else, and there's almost nothing to say about it. Well, you can lie and say that you'll reduce prices on day one, despite having no mechanism to do so, which I suppose is the real takeaway: Dems should blatantly lie more.
ACCESS.bus by Philips (who developed I²C) and DEC, and the DEC variant SERIAL.bus (with different voltage levels) used by their keyboards and mice for a little while.
> IIRC that code existed, but was commented out in the final build.

I've never heard that and IIRC, DR-DOS's owners sued successfully (or DoJ sued successfully). People certainly saw the errors.
As much as vibe coding is obviously ridiculous, using it as a crutch purposefully in this way is amazing. I heard someone call it a tool for energy management once and I feel that
But I thought semiconductor manufacturing was high margin?
You could do floating rate notes too. But fixed rate bonds are by far the largest portion of the bond market and cash on hand is always a big component.
-Written by human, not AI

Love that you added this to the footer on your website. Goodbye ‘organic’ and ‘non-GMO’ and hello ‘AI-Free’ XD
> To hit 87 percent on the original ARC-AGI test, o3 spent roughly 14 minutes per puzzle and, by my calculations, may have required hundreds of thousands of dollars in computing and electricity

> the bot came up with more than 1,000 possible answers per grid before selecting a final submission.

Yeah, AGI is right around the corner… /s
That's just sad news, a reminder that AmigaOS still isn't Open Source, and that the ownership drama[0] isn't settled.

0. https://sites.google.com/site/amigadocuments/
This is, bar none, the stupidest self-own on a national level I've ever seen, and that includes Brexit. These idiotic moves just erased a few trillion dollars of national wealth without getting anything in return.

For the rest of my life, if anyone ever again unironically says we need a businessman for president, I will laugh in their face.
Many countries have blanket global tariffs to make their own industries more competitive

We ignored them

Now we are doing it and yes it upsets the world order

There is no precedent where this has been beneficial for the US, but we can try again. The last time it was tried was 1930, and our fortunes vastly changed since then

The incentive is for entrepreneurially minded people to try to provide services in the US and fix the supply chain here. This theoretically means more people employed and more people able to afford the prices of things produced here. Keeps velocity of money in the economy high.

We will learn how resilient a coalition of other countries are, as they try to only trade with each other

A smarter version of this policy would be country by country and industry by industry negotiations. But, given that some countries are dropping their own blanket tariffs, and others like Vietnam already coming to the negotiating table, time will tell.
Are you trying to say that you don't need privacy because what you say publicly is public?

I'm not following.
This exactly. People are already trying to do this and judging by the sales techniques they use to approach me (spam emails) I don't want anything to do with them!
It's the constant playbook of the trump explainer/apologists:

* He's just being bombastic

* It's just a negotiation tool

* Sure he's doing it but it's going to be a narrow policy

* Fine its broad but it's just temporary

* Yeah its broad and permanent but it won't be too harmful

* Actually it's a great idea and he's smart for doing it
Exactly right. Otherwise we have to argue that 18 of the 20 worst days in economic history happened in the last 3 years, far surpassing the crashes of 1929 or 1987.
Buddy I promise you I live in a much redder state than you and I didn’t give up in the last 10 years and neither should you. That being said, I do plan on moving to a swing state by 2026 and voting. If you think two or three votes in the house is like the seventh seal, I don’t know what to tell you. You sound like my roommate in 2016 who busted in the door the night of the election saying that trans people they knew on forums had decided to kill themselves and I snapped at him they should at least wait until all the votes are counted and the electoral college was finished. I would rather take my cues from the two black men walking down the street in front of my house the next day with one of them saying to the other they’d survived 400 years of this and they’d survive Trump too.
If this was the real reason then wouldn't we see countries matching import tariffs with export tariffs? Sharing revenues on a percentage of the flow of goods into the US 50/50 would at least be a more sustainable geopolitically. It would be a collaborative resolution in some sense.

Instead, we are seeing countries match with import tariffs in the other direction, and a deterioration of global trust.

I don't think most countries actually want to balance bilateral trade. You can get a hint of this by the fact that the calculation that the US is using right now to determine the tariff rate puts a floor of 10% tariff. If they were truly committed to balancing bilateral trade then you would have expected them to actually have added export tariffs to any countries where the US had a trade surplus. Instead they gave a 10% import tariff still. I'm not sure I've seen any explanation for this 10%.
Different Texan--Sam Rayburn.
One of the great oddities of this whole episode is watching people that have complained about unfettered free markets for years or decades suddenly become latter day Milton Friedman absolutists. Being of the libertarian side of things it has been deeply strange watching profoundly protectionist countries suddenly preaching the importance of the free trade they have been busy obstructing.

While the world swings from one authoritarian brand to another it does feel like a lonely place here for those of us that just want less intervention in everything.
So he shorted … the market?
I see, but the "to it" is what's grammatically incorrect.

It is correct to write: there is a "there" there. It would also be correct to write: there is a "there" to it. But it is grammatically incorrect to write: there is a "there" there to it.
I wrote about a lack of desire to find truths, not getting opinions en-masse from groups, and a method to find them

very different
It might not exist in the spectrum, does that mean it doesn't exist? You're arguing and conflating two different things here. On the one hand, you're implicitly arguing that a colour can't exist unless it corresponds to a singular frequency of light, which I've already argued against. This is no more meaningful than arguing that tables and chairs are mental constructs because it's all quarks and electrons at the end of the day. Emergent properties exist and can have causal effects, most philosophers and scientists are in agreement about this.

The other is that a qualia or the mental experience of seeing purple is the same thing as perceiving purple as distinct from other colours in a physical object. I'm not talking about the qualia. In fact, I hate the concept of qualia, because whenever it's introduced into philosophical discussions, the discussion devolves into epicycles of meaningsless discussion of definitions and nomenclature and ends up going nowhere.

No, the purple was there. You say all that was there was some chemicals that only reflects certain wavelengths. I say this is what defines the emergent physical property we call the colour purple. You say electrons and quarks, I say tables and chairs. Both are accurate, and certainly not in conflict.

You might say, so how is this distinct from qualia? Well, for the qualia of seeing purple, there is no way even in principle to decide whether my qualia is the same as your qualia. But I can still look at a red onion and tell you it's purple, and you likely would agree unless you're colour blind. So this property of purple is, unlike a qualia, objective, not subjective.