skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
What's especially interesting is that the market already had tariffs priced in, yet what Trump announced was SO bad that the markets have dropped another 10%...

My European friends and family are amused... China is going to take the US' place in the world economy, Europe will become more self-sufficient and innovative, the US turning mercantilist will simply reduce their influence in the global marketplace... There's not much the world truly NEEDS from the US... Stuff like semiconductors were outsourced long ago, ASML and TSMC are the most important companies in that equation, neither are American.
Of course Picasso's life experience influenced what he chose to make. This isn't what the parent comment is talking about.

The claim was that current LLMs (though I assume they meant generative AI in general, since we're talking about image generation rather than text) are unable to produce anything novel. Meaning they either don't think Picasso's work is novel, or they don't think a human could have prompted an AI to make a new type of abstract art before having trained it on it. Whether the AI would want to do this is irrelevant. AIs don't want anything. They do what a human prompted. And while WWI may have shaped Picasso, learning data from WWI isn't necessary in order to make a cubist painting when prompted to stitch multiple perspectives into a painting. It's blending perspectives that are available from old data. And blending things in a new way is novelty. Most novel art falls into that category.
Talking about people's "handlers" isn't serious debate. Tariffs are nothing new or exciting, there's millions of pages written arguing for and against them long before Trump became a candidate.
About (3): This will inoculate the economy against external supply chain shocks, e.g. war.

The lead time required to set up realistic domestic production will mostly exceed this government's term. Setting up brand new supply chains doesn't happen overnight, does it?
Those texts aren't nonsense. The prompt has a meaning, the LLMs are able to understand it, and are able to reply with coherent and understandable responses crafted in the same way the prompt was written.
For me it's a very clear example of something that is very far from any training data coming out of the models. Intelligent? No, but for me it points to the idea that "language is solved".
You’d be wrong. The US imported 3.5 billion dollars of goods from Russia in 2024, and exported 500 million dollars of goods.

https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/russia...
Also deaths peaked in 2023 and are falling https://www.npr.org/2025/03/07/nx-s1-5295618/fentanyl-overdo...
Well, if we're going to f' up our public health systems, scientific infrastructure, museums and libraries, and our K-12 schools + universities, we might as well go all in and ruin or both our economic soft power and humanitarian good will all at the same time!

/s
This is about a meta analysis from 2018 and therefore misses that the biggest recent growth in the anti-porn movement has been among secular feminists. It also has nothing to say about the way that onlyfans et al "revolutionized" the porn industry by creating a multibillion dollar MLM that exploits both its creator/employees and consumers with different but equally questionable fictions that normalized the purchase and production of pornography to new segments of the population.
I use Strava for mountain biking and the Athletic Intelligence is just comical.

"This ride was longer and harder than usual" - no sh*t, the map, elevation profile and my legs have already informed me.

"You set 3 new PRs" - I can see that with one flick of the thumb thank you.

"Consider a rest day" - consider? None of my job, spouse, equipment or body is too keen on doing that again for a while.
A few years ago I actually purchased a Netware license, right at the start of Covid. It was an ordeal, and not because of Covid. Multiple retailers and distributors stopped selling Netware/Attachmate/Micro Focus products because of that purchase. Micro Focus was completely uninterested in handling Netware sales in any way, shape, or form, except to existing customers with big maintenance contracts.

I can also speak from personal experience that it was just that side of Micro Focus that was uninterested in making any sales. The AMC (cobol compilers) division was great and I'm happy they ended up at Rocket after the OpenText merger.
I don't think steelmanning an argument works if the argument is made in bad faith. Steelmanning should be about trying to understand legitimate reasons for a positions, not bullshit arguments. About being fair and intellectually honest, and not about trying to act like a PR firm for the other person.

That said, if you want to make sense of the reasons behind the tariffs, I can offer a couple that would be reasons why Trump would implement tariffs.

1. While they are within his power, they are a cudgel he can use to hurt his enemies and show favoritism (and be open to bribes to get them lifted).

2. Trump has a weird obsession with tariffs, even after he lost a trade war with China in 2018 and had to bail out farmers with a bailout larger than the one to General Motors.

3. Also, as one of Trump's Wharton business school professors has stated numerous times, "Donald Trump was the dumbest goddam student I ever had."
What I describe is what I've seen in many evangelical churches over decades and in three different countries, first hand. Evangelicals like to think their flavor is immune from all that ailes other branches of Christianity. Yet they too look down on the sick and the poor, sometimes more than older and more traditional strains of the religion.
> everything's always easier when there's a greater wealth of transportation resources

It’s not just easier. If there are no other options, it doesn’t matter what congestion toll you put. The only option is car.

> putting pressure on people to stay off the roads at peak times if they can

Sure, but for most people the demand for transportation before and after normal working hours is inelastic. A smart policy takes that into account and doesn’t inconvenience people for going to/from work.
You’re misunderstanding. Dynamic languages inherently have a single type that is checked _at runtime_. Store it in a string, store it in a struct. It doesn’t matter.
> They had the opposite effect, for reasons that still remain somewhat unclear.

It's clear that Russia redirected most of its exports. Just look at how much oil India is now buying from Russia — before the war, it was around 5%, and now it's over 40%. They rerouted a large part of their trade, created shadow fleets, and many EU exports still end up in Russia, but through proxy countries like Kazakhstan. (You can see this in the trade statistics between the EU and former Soviet bloc countries before and after the war.)

But the situation here is entirely different. The US has placed tariffs on much of Asia, the EU, and several other regions. There's nowhere for the US to reroute trade in a way that allows it to import the same goods at the same or lower prices.
Very true, and somehow completely overlooked by the sizable chunk of the population who mystifyingly still believed he was good at it. I'm at a loss.
> The economists who claim that tariffs will harm normal Americans were also the economists who claimed that sanctions would destroy the Russian economy.

Nobody can predict the future, least of all economists. Having said that I think economists were not wrong on the headwinds that Russian economy would face. They just failed to account for extraordinary measures that dictatorship could take.

And even with said measures there had been a steady deterioration of the economic situation... The real question is what is the state of their mineral (cough gold cough) production rates and reserves. They might just be able to buy their way out of the current situationship.
I agree with you. It’s definitely a big portion of the debt. However, Fed rate at current level is not sustainable. You can do the math and it simply would not work in the very near future. So you either let that play out or do something stupid like this. Not saying I have a better solution. No one does.
With all respect, that's not a steelman argument in favor of tarrifs. It's a stack of whatabountism fallacies. "Tariffs are Good" does not follow from "People who say Tariffs are Bad were wrong about other things". Everyone is wrong about lots of stuff. The world is hard to predict.

You don't shoot a hole in the bottom of your life raft because the person pleading with you not to was wrong about how many people it could hold.
I believe people are arguing for tariffs now are mostly not arguing that tariffs are good but that the world needs to level the playing field and that the US imposing tariffs now is a way to force that to happen. The US has lost quite a bit of industrial production to China and other nations over the years and argument is that this isn't simply low Chinese wages but a variety of trade barriers and trade subsidies. The rosy scenario is that Trump imposes these measures, other nations offer concessions and the barriers are mostly lifted with trade now being more in the US' favor.

The problem with this scenario is that every nation naturally has it's own idea of what is fair and that many things that are trade barriers are around politically sensitive issues (safety and purity standards, etc). So getting other nations to immediately drop stuff isn't that easy.

The analogy is war - after a short engagement, the trade-warring nation will "come home victorious". Like regular war, this scenario often doesn't come to pass.
That's great. I didn't mean any discouragement as much as to say, I would probably not promote its self hosting ability as much. Promote that it's open source and keep working on it because I am sure you'll learn a lot about the field space. If it comes down to it that Heroku, Netlify, Vercel, and all other PaaS companies are gone, I will most likely just do a VPS or server just for my app than launch my own PaaS.

tl;dr if I am looking for a PaaS, I don't care that it's self hostable. I don't want to host it, that's why I am looking.
> The things that dominate middle class budgets: food, housing, medicine, education, are surprisingly local

> The economists who claim that tariffs will harm normal Americans were also the economists who claimed that sanctions would destroy the Russian economy. They had the opposite effect, for reasons that still remain somewhat unclear.

> It is also notable that Chinese competitiveness has only increased as they have engaged in decades of state economic planning and market barriers. The economists who have told us since Reagan that this is inefficient and stupid might be ... wrong.

You are quite wrong there with all of those three points.

#1. a lot of food items come from Mexico, South America, Asia also. Housing material from Canada and China. A lot of meds come from Asia especially India. Majority of Stationary is manufactured in China as well.

#2. Russia is struggling with economy. But remember it has a lot of help from China, Iran, N Korea, and India. That offset a lot of sanctions. Europe is still buying gas from them.

#3. I’ve to remind you this - China exports in trillions.
Trade deficit is effectively a migration of capital inflow, so tariffs should reduce not increase investments.
Because Salesforce decides it’s not profitable enough to be worth it, or they want to close Heroku off to Salesforce customers, or any number of other reasons
The Hamas government isn't democratic, but it was democratically elected. And voters knew whom they were voting for, Hamas didn't change, they were a terrorist organization back then as well. Voters democratically elect all kinds of dictatorships. Still their fault.

Indigenous people (legitimately imho) started a war over that territory and lost it. Started a few more and lost those as well, together with some neighboring states. If you lost the war for that land, it isn't your land anymore. Simple as that. And terrorism isn't an acceptable means of warfare.
Andy Warhol Inc.: How He Made Business His Art
Why should corporations respond to all of this by taking a lot of risk and invest in capital? The tariffs aren't based on any sort of sound strategy, just one poorly educated person's black and white, simplistic worldview full of insecurity.

They change practically by the hour; first they're on, then they're off, then they're on, then they change, thne they're bigger than anyone expected.

That doesn't make companies say "well, let's expand!" It makes them hunker down. Kill off the least profitable products, cut overhead, etc.

There's time needed to build the necessary manufacturing, train a workforce, etc.

There's prices skyrocketing when suddenly American manufacturers have less competition.

There's also the plunge in sales of goods we sell to other countries.

This is the sort of thing you change over a generation. Not in a day, year, or even four years.

You can't just snap your fingers and say "you'll buy all your CNC machines from AMERICAN companies!" - even if we had enough manufacturing capacity, where are you going to get the workers from, particularly as literacy and education levels have been falling, and the whole education system is getting torn up?

...and where are you going to get all the semiconductors from?

The US famously had to buy titanium for the SR-71 from Russia through shell companies because the US lacked the mining capacity, the refining capacity, and know-how.
I would be willing to entertain that discussion, so long as it's not from anyone who thought our current president was a proper businessman in the first place.
Having elite universities scale up the number of seats available can be done. Grow the pie instead of having the current scarcity mindset. This would actually solve much of the current problems. There is no reason you cannot have the same or better quality of education with more students per university. The only reason this problem exists is that by limiting the number of seats you create artificial scarcity and thus higher value.
There is, and it’s much more than an unknown penguin island.
Recreating the Stripe / GitHub Globe Using Claude Code
See I suspect that the problem is not taking any sort of capitalist return concept when implementing a socialist policy... Even if you assume that the government needs to create jobs, it's like nobody has ever done a cost benefit, at any stage.
You see hundreds of thousands being spent on one individuals care needs, something that is essentially never going to have a positive return, while productive initiatives either lack funding, or have triple thier cost added by pointless additional steps (that nobody has ever done a cost benefit of either).
So a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" kind of situation?
With the IP now owned my Microsoft, I have some hope that Phil Spencer will revive and modernise Sierra.

Am I dreaming?
The best explanation I’ve seen is the so called MarALago Accord[1].
I think the core thesis is that the US dollar and the US military being so core to all trade in the world had mad the US disadvantaged in terms of trade competitiveness. The accord is a set of goals/approaches to reduce that, theeeby making the US dollar more appealing for exports, other currencies less appealing.

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_policy_of_the_second...
Original clip is here [1]. This likely isn't real, though if ChatGPT were used, I suppose it worked out this time :>

[1]:
https://www.tiktok.com/@destinygnome/video/74891340165247337...
EU tariffs for goods from the USA vary but based on trade volume it's effectively 1.3%. Setting a 20% tariff for all EU imports is a huge novelty unknown in recent decades. There have been higher tariffs for certain products to protect domestic industry, some of them are more than 60 years in place through.
Oooookay

?
Good news is most of his reserves come from Kentucky, so he won't have to worry about getting hit with tariffs. Oh, you're talking about ready for the military?
Well, regardless of whatever you think about truly reciprocal tariffs, the Trump Tariffs are not that. They released the formula they used to calculate the levels and it has nothing to do with other countries’ trade barriers. It’s like literally trade deficit with that country divided by imports. Which is utterly unhinged, with no basis in theory or reality. But again, even if you disagree, that is not the definition of a reciprocal tariff.
+1. To me it just seems kind of bland. I used to like her more and made a point of going to MoMA to see her when I lived in NYC, but over time she's done the opposite of "grow on me".

I still think Grapefruit is great. Nonetheless a lot of her work, especially her recent work, seems kind of disconnected form its historical context, not very daring, deep or metaphorical. It doesn't really propose anything new or seem distinctively hers. It's almost performative, like someone doing conceptual, installation and performance art "as a brand" rather than as a means to achieve something that can't be achieved via other mediums.
If tariffs will strengthen the economy while everyone else predicts disaster, you've discovered market insight worth billions. The Dow didn't just drop 2,200 points because investors are confused, it dropped because people with serious money and expertise believe these tariffs will damage the economy. If you're right and they're wrong, there's an obvious move: bet against them and get rich.

p.s. Trump did this before in 2018-2019, giving us some hard data about the economic effects of tariffs on modern america that are guiding the economic consensus.
The downturn would come either way, we are slamming headfirst into global warming consequences, other piled up risks and closing easy access resource ceeilings.

This way though the downfall is at least controlled, comparable to landing a wounded plane instead of breaking up midair. Big Olga never believed its own bull of "infinite growth" and parallel drove plans forward to keep civilization going in pockets once the "8billion can life like kings" bubble bursts. Bill Gates microreactors come to mind.

The rest of us go to hell, aka wars, martial law and civil war, preferably without damaging the pockets and without going nuclear. THANK YOU!

Sorry , to all those that fell for fusion, mars and star trek fantasies.
The scale's just tiny in comparison. Walmart's a huge company with about 2M global employees. That's nothing compared to the US-sized decisions a president has to make. And Walmart's CEO doesn't have to direct a military, too.
I did see a talk where someone was making the case that if the U.S. depends heavily on China for steel, and Taiwan for chips, then if China invades Taiwan the U.S. would very quickly be unable to wage a war with both supplies cut off. So the goal is to build some capacity for such products domestically.

They also tied that to Trump's desire to get out of Europe and deescalate the Middle East, being that if the U.S. was already stretched across Ukraine and say Iran, it would be way to stretched to also wage anything in the far east.

I'm no expert by a long way, but I can see some logic in the argument.
I'm keeping my fingers crossed for Markdown for it's elegance, simplicity and independence. And observing fresh ideas for using it like Marp for example builds up the hope it will get more popular.
In theory companies like Apple could bring manufacturing back to US.
I'm not GP, but here goes:

LLMs are token-based, which are words or word fragments; they have limited ability to work on a letter-by-letter basis. They can't reliably count letters in a sentence, for example. "give it a string and a grammar and ask it to generate the string from the grammar" can't be done by inference alone because of this: they would generate tokens that don't match the grammar.

But you can use a grammar-based sampler and it'll generate valid strings just fine. llama.cpp can easily do this if you provide an EBNF grammar specification.
ChatGPT prompt that creates Trump's tariff plan verbatim - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43584316

https://old.reddit.com/r/ChatGPT/comments/1jr0h35/heres_the_...

Prompt: “What would be an easy way to calculate the tariffs that should be imposed on other countries so that the US is on even-playing fields when it comes to trade deficit? Set minimum at 10%.“
Flightaware, at one point, had a lot of Tcl code

https://www.flightaware.com/about/code/
I mean obviously we're not really privy to market share but I'd say they've had a pretty massive decline in say the past 5 years or so.
The coherent endgame is to ensure a fascist takeover of America by ensuring CEOs are at the mercy of POTUS. First the political party fell, then its representatives in Congress, then judiciary. The control of political institutions and education system has been assumed.

But free trade and commerce is antithetical to fascism. Unless the dictator can assume total control, his position is untenable. The goal is to form an equivalent of CCP Politburo and Putin in the form of POTUS + small number of hand-picked techbros. You can't achieve that goal unless you control commerce.

All of this is laid out in writings of Dark Enlightenment adherents and sanitized through Project 2025. Ironically, the people who complain the most about their freedoms being destroyed because their Facebook post saying COVID is a hoax was deleted not only will willingly submit to this, but also be its key enablers.
After months of talking about replacing income tax with tariffs, and his revered External Revenue Service replacing the IRS with trillions in tariff income per year, and just this morning saying that he'll never change his mind on this so manufacturers need to rush back (I guess Americans yearn for the $4 a day jobs making t-shirts or something), rapidly Trump and his sycophants are, in the face of market obliteration and literally everyone with a brain saying how dumb this all is, claiming it's a grand negotiating strategy. By mid-day various Trump supplicants like his sprog and Ackman were pretending there was a mad rush to negotiate the best terms first.

Vietnam, for instance, supposedly is on the phone "negotiating". But what is Vietnam going to negotiate? It has negligible trade barriers or tariffs -- we all realize the reciprocal thing is a ridiculous lie -- and an income per capita of like $2,500. Vietnam cannot fix the fact that they're cheap labour that quite literally benefits the US lifestyle.

In other words, after this profoundly stupid, catastrophically economically ignorant debacle, they're trying to back out yet again.

It is simply staggering how much of an idiocracy the US has become. In any normal government this clown would have people stopping him from this insanity. Instead he has slobbering bootlickers like Howard Lutnick trying to rationalize every bit of insanity.

And things will not return back to normal. Hundreds of billions of dollars of damage have already been done to the US, and this time they aren't going to fixed by another backtrack.
GitHub Copilot Pro+
I'm curious if we'll see an adventure game revival.

With modern generative models, LLMs, diffusion and voice, one could imagine dynamic adventure games that are not quite the same each time, and which could support coop play so you can play with your friends.

Maybe not this year but if the models improve like they have for another year or two...?
Sure there will be some onshoring, but does it make more sense to onshore or pay given: 1) the instability of Trump's decisions, see Ukraine or Canada 2) you would have less economy of scale because you wouldn't sell any of your super expensive goods outside the USA 3) if the machines you need aren't produced in America they'd have tariffs too 4) the next president could make the tariffs more favorable. You also haven't touched unemployment (or lack thereof) yet.

(And by the way, if tariffs stay, brace for deflation due to waiting until after the election in 2028).