skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
And greenfield turns into brownfield pretty quickly.
Doing guesswork of course, they would rather you get what they want but also they probably don't know how to fix it and make it deterministic again
This is the same argument we made in the 90s about what the web was going to do. What ended up happening was the growth of aggregators and silos like Facebook that baited everyone with ease of use into putting everything into their walled garden and then monetized it. The creators, namely the posters of the content, got nothing.

The same is happening already with AI creations. Doing it yourself is work and takes some technical skill, so most people use hosted AI services. Guess who makes all the money?

You will be able to create and share your own spin on Star Wars. You won’t see anything for that except maybe cred or some upvotes. The company that hosts it and provides the gateway and controls the algorithms that show it to people will get everything.
I think there is a good chance you are roughly right. I also think that the "secret sauce" of sapience is probably not something that can be replicated easily with the technology we have now, like LLMs. They're missing contextual awareness and processing which is absolutely necessary for real reasoning.

But even so, solving that problem feels much more attainable than it used to be.
It is crazy. I tried the same prompts and got nearly identical images to the author. AI seems to be repeating itself with the same images without variations.
> The problem with ideas is that they have to be good.

No they don't, look at music popular in social networks.

> and now creation will be (relatively) easy. More taste makers will be slinging content and we'll wind up in a land of abundance.

Even before the generative AI, I think we live in the era where there are more creators than ever in history: everybody today can publish their music or art without any large investments (except for instruments: they are expensive as always). I would prefer we have cheaper pianos, samples and microphones instead of worthless music-copying models.
Side by side comparison of the old and new map appears in this article: https://www.timeout.com/newyork/news/heres-what-the-newest-n...
You're just describing ordinary challenge-response. That has nothing to do with homomorphic encryption and there are plenty of examples from before homomorphic encryption became viable, for example https://www.geoffchappell.com/notes/security/aim/index.htm

Homomorphic encryption hides data, not computation. If you've been trying to learn compsci from GPT, you might have fallen victim to hallucinations. I'd recommend starting from wikipedia instead. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homomorphic_encryption

And btw most games are cracked within a week of release. You have way too much faith in buzzwords and way too little faith in bored Eastern European teenagers.
Tariffs, the Dollar, and the Fed
If I search on many shopping sites, the more specifics I give, the broader the results become.

It's as if every term gets translated down to a sql statement where each part of the query statement is a bunch of OR clauses instead of AND clauses.
Discussion (52 points, 1 day ago, 47 comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43559451
Does your mom really know what TLS means? I would guess that even "tech savvy" members of the general public don't.
Xi Jinping has removed many of those protections though like the maximum term count so he could stay in power.

And Ireland politics got me pretty sad. It just seems to pingpong between two equally inept parties (fianna fail and fine gael) and nothing new ever happens. They just keep piling problem on problem without ever solving anything. I remember there being a lot of fuss about patients in hallways during mary harney's reign in the mid '00s and I don't think that was ever solved. Last time I ended up in hospital there I ended up in exactly that situation. The post-2007 housing crisis is another one. Does anyone actually expect that to be ever solved? And the strange thing is, this country has no shortage of land whatsoever.

What happens is that one party blames their predecessor and wins the election and then next term things switch back again through exactly the same mechanism.

I think something more left like sinn fein would be good for the country but they have too much image baggage due to their past. And labour seems to really just sit at the sidelines forever.
Why we are still using 88x31 buttons
I don't condone or endorse breaking any laws.

That said, trademark laws like life of the author + 95 years are absolutely absurd. The ONLY reason to have any law prohibiting unlicensed copying of intangible property is to incentivize the creation of intangible property. The reasoning being that if you don't allow people to exclude 3rd party copying, then the primary party will assumedly not receive compensation for their creation and they'll never create.

Even in the case where the above is assumed true, the length of time that a protection should be afforded should be no more than the length of time necessary to ensure that creators create.

There are approximately zero people who decide they'll create something if they're protected for 95 years after their death but won't if it's 94 years. I wouldn't be surprised if it was the same for 1 year past death.

For that matter, this argument extends to other criminal penalties, but that's a whole other subject.
Assembly is one example of manufacture, so that distinction isn't really the one you think it is. Output is tracked by value added, so the mythical "car comes missing a single bolt which gets added in Flint" doesn't really show up in the output numbers, if that's your worry.
It is to be seen. Capitalists are the closest thing we have to rational economic agents. If there is a buck to be made in American manufacturing then that buck will be made.

My layman concern though is that these tariffs are not going to be stable enough to convince daddy warbucks to build a $10m factory.
What I'm kind of concerned about is that these images will persist and will be reinforced by positive feedback. Meaning, an adventurous archeologist will be the same very image, forever. We're entering the epitome of dogmatic ages. (And it will be the same corporate images and narratives, over and over again.)
Job well done wrt reach, ig.

There's this other guy who got kicked from Colombia for cheating on an Amazon LeetCode interview. Milked the episode really well and is an X influencer now.
Yes, and notably the source recipe can’t be copyrighted. Trade secrets and recipes are not copyrightable. That’s the point. We have entire vastly profitable industries built around protection of trade secrets, with no copyright in play. Competing to make make the best cola flavored beverage or the best burrito is a thing. Competing to make the best rendition of Snow White, is not. What’s the rub? They don’t seem that different at all.
I guess our trading partners should lower their tariffs/margins to a level that makes these US importers and publishers able to take a healthy cut, or we can assume they don’t mind the drop in orders to their factories.
The USA is not the problem, it is SEA. Most of our trash ends up in landfills, which is much preferable to the ocean.
After searching, I've found some news articles that say that. But Nintendo's site (https://www.nintendo.com/us/gaming-systems/switch-2/featured...) says “$79.99 MSRP”, but that doesn't say whether it's physical or digital. Weird.
It's just because he is white male looking isn't it, academia hates white men. Why are we over thinking this?

Personal statements like job apps are about bragging which is hard for anyone to do, the comments putting this down are piss poor.

Otherwise the comments are he shouldn't have written it as a normal 17 year old, he should have paid an experienced adult to faked it like everyone else. They could have helped him fake the "diversity" universities chase.

If universities wanted true diversity he is it. He's already worthy to have on their alumni which for the adults in the room, when all information is on your phone universities are the mostly connections you create . i.e. Gates, Wozniak , Jobs
> “Rule breaking appears to signal a team member’s commitment—a willingness to do whatever it takes to get the job done,” wrote Wakeman, Yang, and Moore, all of whom are hockey fans.

Beyond "taking one for the team", in business, I didn't see the article make some key distinctions:

* What is the origin of the rules? (Originated in the interests of the organization, or came from outside, such as regulatory requirements.)

* How much does the organization care about the rules? (Some rules they just need to make a paper trail show of effort, and worst impact is a transactional cost-of-business fine, or an unflattering news cycle. Other rule violations could dethrone a CEO, or even send them to prison.)

* Would the organization actually love to get away with violating that rule, when the right individual comes along to execute it without getting caught? (Say, some very lucrative financial scheme that's disallowed by regulations.)

* How aligned is the manager with the organization wrt the rules in question? (Say, the company actually really doesn't want people to violate this one rule, but a manager gets bonuses and promotions when their reports have the advantage of breaking the rule.)

Depending on those answers, a manager's claim of "Doing what it takes to get the job done!" can sound very different.
And it's simplistic analysis like this is why people fall for stuff like this.

Equating a tax on Billionaires to a tax on every import! A tax on corporate jets - it's laughable that people can't see the most basic economic differences in these.
Senate Confirms Dr. Oz to Oversee Medicare and Medicaid
I can trace back the moment I saw YouTube as a tool for learning when I first saw your 8-bit computer series. I was honestly amazed with the quality of the videos and how clear you can explain things. Top content. I'm a subscriber and a fan to this day. Keep up the good work.
The unpopular choices that need to be made in America are the centrist ones.

One of them being "whether it's left- or right-aligned, let's not engage in your social agenda on the federal level for a while"

>where a person can't be a candidate to a position more than one level higher than the highest one they were previously elected for

For much of the time in the Roman Republic they also had this

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cursus_honorum
> The idea that everyone is either full lazy or not lazy is a bit reductionist.

Fair point. My intention isn't to be absolute, though. Even in a relative sense, I can't imagine a scenario where some level of laziness didn't contribute to the problem, even in the presence of external factors.

It seems like the author was eliminating laziness with their statement and instead putting the primary force on the LLM being "confident." This is what I'm pushing back against.
> One, make the rest of the world pick a side. And two, attempt to disconnect global dependence on China.

Logically this may well push many to greater trade with China.

China has a growing middle consumer class already greater in number than the total population of the USofA. China already has global scale manufacturing in place, now looking for fresh markets as US markets lower demand due to tariffs.

Smaller countries, say Australia, can trade their wagyu beef to China now that the US has tariff'd the US demand down towards zero .. in a number of ways the US has removed itself from global trade which will continue on with or without it.
I'm OK with that too!
Bill Gates did not write it by himself, Paul Allen and Monte Davidoff also worked on it. And they did not have a finished product after 8 weeks -- only a demo. The first commercial release was "version 2", half a year later.
> This is a very doomer take. The threats are real, and I'm certain some people feel this way, but eliminating large swaths of humanity is something dicatorships have tried in the past.

Tried, and succeeded in. In times where people held more power than today. Not sure what point you're trying to make here.

> Most of humanity has empathy for others. I would prefer to have hope that we will make it through, rather than drown in fear.

I agree that most of humanity has empathy for others — but it's been shown that the prevalence of psychopaths increases as you climb the leadership ladder.

Fear or hope are the responses of the passive. There are other routes to take.
They are detaining people for op-Ed’s though.
> Still, it's left me a bit incredulous, particularly when people I thought were smart and capable of being critical seemingly adopt this nonsense without batting an eye.

That's the main problem, it's becoming the standard in everything.
> The Long Now Foundation is attempting to build a clock to last 10,000 years.

The pyramids are only half that old, and they've accumulated a fair bit of damage despite being solid stone.
Who would pay for the years of research in the open society?
>Dr. Oz, 64, has for years been a vocal proponent of Medicare Advantage, the private insurance plans for older Americans, despite federal inquiries and lawmakers’ concerns that insurers have overbilled the government by tens of billions of dollars a year. He promoted it on his TV show and acted as a broker for one company that sells the plan.

It really seems like many of these departments are for sale and all we get are people with clear conflicts of interest ... money / friends in the game they're now deeply involved in.
Honestly wouldn't compare Vargas with Trump here. Trump policies for me seems similar to what the military regime did (1964-1985)

Before Vargas rule (around the 30-40's), Brazil was an agrarian state, basically commanded by coffee barons and so on.

Brazil got the independence in 1822, and abolished the slavery in 1888. During this time, it was reigned by Dom Pedro I and Dom Pedro II. When the empire ended the slavery (one of the latest countries to end), the military and the agrarian folks, did a republic coup. In Brazil we call this republic "Coffee with Milk republic", because it was not a democracy yet (only 4% could vote), and the power was divided by São Paulo (Coffee state) and Minas Gerais (Milk state).

It's a long and complex story, but in short, in 1930, Vargas did what we call "1930 Revolution". It was a dictatorship, he persecuted the Brazilian integralists (fascists) and communists (and banned foreign languages aimed at banning italian/german/japanese speakers etc). The dictatorship ended, he got removed, and later he comes by election, in the first Brazilian proper democracy, with huge people support.

Anyway, besides all that, he basically industrialized the country. Moved the country from an agrarian state to modern industrialized state. But not only because of import substitution, he created like Ministry of Health, Education, all the modern BR state that we know. Penal code, and everything is still from 1940.The industrialization was mainly led by state-owned companies. He created a state owned oil company (Petrobras), created a state owned car company (FNM), steel company (CSN), mining company (Vale), etc.

The development during this time, was basically making the state to be the one that would industrialize the country.

The military dictatorship goal was different, after all, it was a coup against "the communists", with the U.S support at the time. So the industrialization was also led by the private sector, protected by the state with the huge tariffs, and some areas they just banned imports.

Instead of the FNM car company for example, we had then Gurgel, a private company making cars.

Of course, a lot of these companies died when Brazil opened the economy in the 1990s, exactly bcause they were not competitive and wasn't exporting anything anyway.

But one thing that people need to keep in mind always, it's how all of that makes the product expensive. A car in Brazil it's way more expensive than in the U.S and so on.
Let's be clear. You can be for free software, against copyright, etc., and STILL be in favor of these firms being punished for violating copyright as they have. Because frankly, we -- normal people -- have always known that we would be punished if we did anything close to this: so many people have been thrown in jail, even killed themselves, because they distributed some film or hosted some books. But now, when a big corporation does it, and in doing so seeks to replace and impoverish thousands, millions of hard-working, law-abiding people, now is when we should expect the government to finally say -- oh, that copyright thing was silly all along? No. Perhaps if the deal was that the whole system would go away entirely -- that we, too, could do what these firms have done. But that's not what's being proposed. That will not happen. They want the laws to be for them, not for us, and I will always be opposed to attempts at actualizing that injustice.
If you don’t want to be subject to the whims of whoever is in office, don’t take the poison pill of government money.
> Zig bdfl himself accused vlang of committing fraud a while back.

That was truly foul. On top of that, begged readers to give their money to Zig. Clearly some have no limits on what to say and do against other languages or to sell their language.

That's why whatever bad things a creator or evangelist says about another language, people shouldn't just swallow, and instead take with a grain of salt and some skepticism.
> ACT post where Scott Alexander provides some additional info: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/introducing-ai-2027

The pattern where Scott Alexander puts forth a huge claim and then immediately hedges it backward is becoming a tiresome theme. The linguistic equivalent of putting claims into a superposition where the author is both owning it and distancing themselves from it at the same time, leaving the writing just ambiguous enough that anyone reading it 5 years from now couldn't pin down any claim as false because it was hedged in both directions. Schrödinger's prediction.

> Do we really think things will move this fast? Sort of no

> So maybe think of this as a vision of what an 80th percentile fast scenario looks like - not our precise median, but also not something we feel safe ruling out.

The talk of "not our precise median" and "Not something we feel safe ruling out" is an elaborate way of hedging that this isn't their actual prediction but, hey, anything can happen so here's a wild story! When the claims don't come true they can just point back to those hedges and say that it wasn't really their median prediction (which is conveniently not noted).

My prediction: The vague claims about AI becoming more powerful and useful will come true because, well, they're vague. Technology isn't about to reverse course and get worse.

The actual bold claims like humanity colonizing space in the late 2020s with the help of AI are where you start to realize how fanciful their actual predictions are. It's like they put a couple points of recent AI progress on a curve, assumed an exponential trajectory would continue forever, and extrapolated from that regression until AI was helping us colonize space in less than 5 years.

> Manifold currently predicts 30%:

Read the fine print. It only requires 30% of judges to vote YES for it to resolve to YES.

This is one of those bets where it's more about gaming the market than being right.
Indeed. Especially when a lot of papers are just using cherry-picked results that show some improvements just so they can publish something, but their method doesn't work that well when it comes in contact with reality (e.g. see the deluge of papers which claim to have come up with an optimizer better than AdamW), and when the majority of people are not even properly benchmarking their new methods wrt to the time overhead (no, it doesn't matter if your method achieves 1% better loss if it takes 10% longer to train, because if I'd trained for 10% longer without your method I'd get an even better loss; and don't even get me started on people not tuning their baselines).

I've been burnt way too many times by fancy new methods that claimed improvement, where I spent a ton of effort to implement them, and they ended up being poop.

Every person working in the field and pushing papers should read this blog post and apply what's written in it: https://kellerjordan.github.io/posts/muon/#discussion-solvin...
I don't think I agree with this article at all. Yes, it's true that the modding scene has largely gone away, and that's a shame. But Android is still the platform that things are tried out on. There are cheap phones like the Nothing phone doing stuff with customization and LED lighting. There are flip phones and foldables. Android gets the more interesting camera stuff before Apple does. Some things have gone away or gone the same path as the iPhone, especially if you look at Samsung who are Apple's main competitor. My most recent Android phone is from Oppo and has the best camera I've had on a phone, a really fantastic battery life, and it was cheaper than the last 3. And I can still install the browser I like with full ad-blocking, I can still replace the launcher, and I can still use alternate app stores.

Companies make what they think people will buy. Not enough people cared about certain features so things moved on.
Use Kagi
That came out of millions of dollars and man hours of investment by Google and OpenAi.

VS

Some college students selling software they didn't have and getting it ready from 0 to sellable in 2 months which led to a behemoth that still innovates to this day.
Expect extra questions, take a burner phone: Lawyers weigh in on travel to US
When he actually hits you, it makes sense to flinch when he flails his limbs. He did cause the stock market to tank literally yesterday.
That’s not how that works. If Japan needs USD it goes to the forex market. That market represents a massive trade flow.

It doesn’t matter which currency you pick in that world apart from capital control. As long as it’s reasonably stable you flow through it with many billions of dollars a day with ease. The conversions are effectively free because the spreads are tiny.

Using the US dollar to trade between two countries that are not to US does nothing to the the currency. It just shifts a deficit.
You're just using new terms ("cost-push inflation") to disagree without actually disagreeing.

> so of you care just about near-term price levels, the same monetary interventions make sense as for demand-pull inflation....Cost-push inflation tends to be an effect of forces outside of monetary policy which tend to slow the economy, so throwing tight money policy on top of it accelerates the slowdown. This is particularly bad if you are already in a recession with cost-push inflation (stagflation).

Again, you're just saying the same thing that I wrote above, but arguing (?) that it's actually called "inflation".

If your point is that tariffs are bad, fine. We both agree that what you call "cost-push inflation" is not something you'd rationally raise interest rates to counter.
How do you suggest you protect your "thing"?

* If I make a thing that is different and I get a patent - cool.
* If I create a design that is unusual and I get copyright on it - is that cool?

Both concepts - patent and copyright - are somewhat controversial, for multiple reasons.

If you invented a thingie, would you not want some initial patent related protection to allow you to crack on with some sort of clout against cough CN? If you created a film/creative thang, would you not want some protection against your characters being ... subverted.

Patents and copywrite are what we have - do you have any better ideas?
Threader.ai
Antibiotic resistance among key bacterial species plateaus over time